菜粕早报 2025-08-06 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 1.国内水产养殖进入旺季，国产油菜籽上市，现货市场供应偏紧预期改 善，需求端维持良好预期。 2.加拿大油菜籽年度产量小幅减少支撑外盘期货，中国对加拿大菜子油 和油渣饼加征关税，另外中国对加拿大油菜籽进口反倾销调查尚在进行，未 来结果尚有变数，或会等待中加贸易关系进一步发展情况明朗再行决定。 3.全球油菜籽今年产量小幅减少，主要受欧盟油菜籽产量减少和加拿大 油菜籽产量低于预期影响。 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2700至2760区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，需求良好和技术性买盘支撑，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate decreased by 7.31% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. The demand side showed a decrease in inventory for some sample enterprises, and the cost side had different trends for different raw materials. The market is expected to see strengthened demand next month, with potential inventory reduction, and the supply - demand pattern is shifting towards demand - driven. The lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 66,200 - 69,480 [8]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also some利多 factors such as manufacturers' production cut plans and a decrease in imports from Chile, while利空 factors include high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends and insufficient demand from the power battery end [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 17,268 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 7.31% [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises was 93,672 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27%. The inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,499 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.32% [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 68,421 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.02%, with a production profit of 1,755 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 75,292 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, with a production loss of 6,997 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and high production enthusiasm [8]. - **Base Difference**: On August 5th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 3,360 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 51,958 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.18%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 45,888 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.18%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 43,880 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.42%. The total inventory was 141,726 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.00%, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Disk Surface**: The MA20 of the disk surface is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Force Position**: The net short position of the main force decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 84,200 physical tons next month, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 18,500 physical tons next month, a month - on - month increase of 2.78%. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, with potential inventory reduction. The CIF price of 6% concentrate is flat daily and lower than the historical average. The supply - demand pattern is shifting towards demand - driven, and the lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 66,200 - 69,480 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The futures closing prices of different contracts showed a downward trend, with the decline ranging from 0.86% to 2.75% [14]. - **Base Difference**: The base difference of different contracts showed an upward trend, with the increase ranging from 35.43% to 81.40% [14]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 14,443, a 14.60% increase from the previous value [14]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salt, and other upstream products had different trends, with some remaining unchanged and some showing slight decreases or increases [14]. - **Prices of Cathode Materials and Lithium Batteries**: The prices of cathode materials and lithium batteries also had different trends, with most showing only slight changes [14]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Overview - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate showed different changes, and the production and processing costs of lithium spodumene also had corresponding trends [16]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The production and inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium and ternary materials showed different changes, and the monthly production and export of phosphoric acid iron also had corresponding trends [16]. 3.4 Other Supply - Related Data - **Lithium Ore Supply**: The price, production, import, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore had different trends over time [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: The production, import, and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources and grades showed different trends over time [27]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: The production, export, and capacity utilization rate of lithium hydroxide from different sources showed different trends over time [34]. 3.5 Cost - Profit Data - **Lithium Compound Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of different lithium compounds, including lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and recycled lithium, showed different trends over time [39][42][45]. 3.6 Inventory Data - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate from different sources showed different trends over time [47]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources showed different trends over time [47]. 3.7 Demand - Related Data - **Lithium Battery Demand**: The price, production, shipment, and export of lithium batteries showed different trends over time [50]. - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different trends over time [56][59]. - **Ternary Material Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends over time [62][64]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron - Lithium Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, export, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends over time [66][69]. - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: The production, sales, export, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [74][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol are becoming more polarized, with regional trends expected to be prominent in the future. The port market is likely to accumulate inventory this week due to concentrated imports, and weak demand may lead to a downward adjustment. The inland market has low inventory and healthy supply - demand fundamentals, but may be affected by the port's weak market and maintain a narrow - range shock adjustment. It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2360 - 2410 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: The port market may accumulate inventory, and demand is weak; the inland market has no supply pressure in the short term, and the supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, but it is affected by the port market. The overall assessment is neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 13, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 65.03 tons, a cumulative increase of 6.32 tons from the previous period; the overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 4.05 tons to 36.63 tons, which is bullish [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is below the moving average, which is neutral [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2360 - 2410 [5]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some devices are shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; the methanol start - up rate in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level; some acetic acid devices have been put into production or are planned to be put into production; CTO enterprises in the northwest still have external procurement needs [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there are expected to be concentrated ship arrivals at the port in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the off - season, and the MTBE start - up rate has decreased significantly; coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively shipping; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor shipping [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in various regions has different trends. For example, the price in Jiangsu has decreased by 1.41% week - on - week, while the price in Inner Mongolia has increased by 1.70% week - on - week. The futures closing price has increased by 7 yuan/ton to 2397 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Basis Spread Structure**: The basis spread of various regions and the import basis spread have changed. For example, the basis spread between Jiangsu and Shandong has decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 24 yuan/ton, and the import basis spread has decreased by 8 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [8]. - **Start - up Rate**: The national weighted average start - up rate of methanol is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The start - up rate in different regions has also decreased to varying degrees [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East and South China ports has increased, and the available and tradable inventory in coastal areas has also increased [8]. - **Production Profit**: The production profits of different methanol production processes are different. For example, the profit of coal - to - methanol has decreased by 21 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the profit of coke oven gas - to - methanol has increased by 334 yuan/ton week - on - week [18]. - **Downstream Product Price and Profit**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have little change. The production profits and loads of downstream products have also changed slightly [29][33][36][40]. - **MTO Production Profit and Load**: The MTO device production profit has increased by 109 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the load has increased by 0.15% [45]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance**: Many domestic methanol enterprises are in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or reduced load, involving various regions such as the northwest, north, east, and southwest [55]. - **Foreign Methanol Device Operation**: The operation status of foreign methanol devices varies. Some devices in Iran are in the process of restarting, and some devices in other countries are operating normally or at a low start - up rate [56]. - **Olefin Device Operation**: The operation status of domestic olefin devices is also different. Some devices are operating stably, some are shut down for maintenance, and some are expected to be put into production [57].

1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为34.7555%，环比增加3.835个百分 点，全国样本企业出货27.24万吨，环比增加1.26%,样本企业产量为58万吨，环比增加 12.40%,样本企业装置检修量预估为60.4万吨，环比减少5.91%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升 供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年8月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为33.1%，环比增加0.15个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑 沥青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, while the demand recovery is at a low level. The cost support has increased slightly. It is expected that industrial silicon 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 8250 - 8650 [6]. - For polycrystalline silicon, the supply-side production scheduling continues to increase. The overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later. The cost support remains stable. It is expected that polycrystalline silicon 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 48885 - 51775 [10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 81,000 tons, a 3.85% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 70,000 tons, a 1.40% decrease from the previous week, and the demand remains sluggish [6]. - **Inventory**: The silicon inventory is 229,000 tons, at a high level; the organic silicon inventory is 78,100 tons, also at a high level; the aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 46,000 tons, at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The sample oxygen - permeable 553 production in Xinjiang has a loss of 2354 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - **Basis**: On August 5th, the spot price of non - oxygen - permeable silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 610 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory is 540,000 tons, a 0.93% increase from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory is 171,450 tons, a 3.40% decrease from the previous week; the main port inventory is 119,000 tons, a 0.83% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has increased [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polycrystalline silicon output was 26,500 tons, a 3.92% increase from the previous week. The scheduled production in August is expected to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 11GW, a 1.78% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 181,500 tons, a 1.56% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The scheduled production in August is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase from the previous month. In July, the battery cell output was 57.26GW, a 1.90% increase from the previous month. Last week, the external sales factory inventory of battery cells was 3.86GW, a 27.57% decrease from the previous week. Currently, battery cell production is in a loss state. The scheduled production in August is 59.15GW, a 3.30% increase from the previous month. In July, the component output was 47.1GW, a 1.72% increase from the previous month. It is expected that the component output in August will be 46.82GW, a 0.59% decrease from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month. The European monthly inventory is 29.8GW, a 2.29% decrease from the previous month. Currently, component production is profitable [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon in the industry is 36,500 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On August 5th, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 3330 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 229,000 tons, a 5.76% decrease from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [12]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20 [12]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position has increased [12]. 2. Fundamentals/Position Data The report provides a large amount of data on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon, including production, inventory, cost, and price trends over different time periods, as well as the supply and demand balance sheets of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon [18][20][41][65].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-6） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：近期市场观望情绪升温，影响近两日线上竞拍流拍现象增加，且部分煤种成交价格小幅下 跌，竞拍情绪稍有走弱，考虑煤矿多有预售订单待执行，焦企短期仍有一定补库需求，煤企挺价意愿较 强，产地煤矿报价多暂稳为主；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1040，基差-142；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：焦企经过连续五轮提涨，利润有所修复，当前开工高稳，加之终端高铁水支撑当前需求， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, the demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of China-US and China-Canada relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production cut falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as the peak production season approaches, the supply of palm oil will increase [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,448, with a basis of 96, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions with production cuts falling short of expectations and subsequent supply increase [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,962, with a basis of 644, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, which is bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased, which is bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,800 - 9,200 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions with production cuts falling short of expectations and subsequent supply increase [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,708, with a basis of 93, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,350 - 9,750 [4]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Current Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The outer market of nickel has a slight correction, facing significant pressure at the 20 - day moving average. The prices of nickel ore and ferronickel are weakly stable, with some quotes rising, but the cost line remains low. The stainless - steel market is in the traditional off - season from July to August, and the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel has a slight increase this week. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries is decreasing, leading to a decline in nickel demand in the new energy sector. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The Shanghai nickel 2509 contract will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel has increased. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is weakly stable, the ocean freight is firm, and the price of ferronickel is weakly stable with some slight increases. The cost line is still low, and the stainless - steel consumption has entered the off - season. The stainless steel 2509 contract will also fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Price Changes** - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview**: On August 5th, the price of Shanghai nickel's main contract was 120910 yuan, up 280 yuan from the previous day; the price of London nickel was 15055 dollars, down 50 dollars; the price of stainless - steel's main contract was 12960 yuan, up 35 yuan. Among the spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121900 yuan, up 650 yuan [12]. - **Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices**: On August 5th, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 dollars/wet ton, down 1 dollar; the high - nickel ferronickel was 916 yuan/nickel point, up 2 yuan [24]. **Inventory Changes** - **Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: As of August 5th, LME nickel inventory was 211254 tons, an increase of 2172 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 20923 tons, a decrease of 247 tons [15]. - **Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: As of August 5th, stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 102865 tons, a decrease of 60 tons. On August 1st, the national stainless - steel inventory was 111.12 million tons, a decrease of 0.74 million tons compared with the previous period, but the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased by 0.67 million tons [19][20]. **Cost Information** - **Stainless - Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12807 yuan, the waste - steel production cost was 13477 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16399 yuan [26]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The calculated import price of nickel was 121536 yuan/ton [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc ZN2509 is expected to be weak with oscillations. The previous trading day saw a rebound in Shanghai Zinc with shrinking trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, with more reduction in short positions. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, the short - term KDJ indicator is rising but in the weak area, the trend indicator shows that the long - side strength is increasing while the short - side strength is decreasing, and the long - side has a slight advantage [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1153000 tons and consumption was 1130200 tons, with a supply surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons and consumption was 4507900 tons, with a supply shortage of 56500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons. The overall situation is considered bullish [2]. - The basis is - 40 with the spot price at 22340, which is neutral [2]. - On August 5th, LME zinc inventory decreased by 4725 tons to 92275 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 100 tons to 14807 tons, which is bullish [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed an oscillating rebound and closed below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average was upward, which is neutral [2]. - The main positions are net short, with longs turning to shorts, which is bearish [2]. Futures Market Quotes - On August 5th, for the zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange, different delivery months had various price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the 2509 contract had a previous settlement of 22205, an opening price of 22330, a high of 22395, a low of 22250, a closing price of 22380, a settlement reference price of 22315, a price increase of 175, a trading volume of 85449 lots, a trading value of 953599340 yuan, and an open interest of 98472 lots with a decrease of 4253 lots [3]. Spot Market Quotes - On August 5th, in the domestic main spot markets, zinc concentrate price in the material area was 17010 yuan/ton with an increase of 80 yuan/ton; zinc ingot price was 22340 yuan/ton with an increase of 100 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet price was 4083 yuan/unit with an increase of 3 yuan/unit; galvanized pipe price was 4484 yuan/ton with an increase of 1 yuan/ton; zinc alloy price in Ningbo was 22850 yuan/ton with an increase of 130 yuan/ton; zinc powder price in Changsha was 27360 yuan/ton with an increase of 130 yuan/ton; zinc oxide price in Taizhou was 20700 yuan/ton with no change; and secondary zinc oxide price in Lin was 7742 yuan/ton with a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [4]. Inventory Statistics - From July 24th to August 4th, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 8.08 million tons to 8.72 million tons. Compared with July 28th, the inventory increased by 0.36 million tons, and compared with July 31st, it increased by 0.28 million tons [5]. - On August 5th, the SHFE zinc warrant report showed a total of 14807 tons with a decrease of 100 tons, mainly due to a 100 - ton decrease in Tianjin's warehouse [6]. - On August 5th, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 4725 tons to 92275 tons, and the注销占比 (cancellation ratio) was 47.33% [7]. Price Summaries - On August 5th, the prices of zinc concentrate in major domestic cities were mostly around 17010 yuan/ton with an increase of 80 yuan/ton, except for some areas like Hechi (16810 yuan/ton), Longnan (16960 yuan/ton), and Chifeng (16910 yuan/ton) [9]. - On August 5th, the prices of zinc ingots from major domestic smelters increased by 130 yuan/ton. For example, Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter's 0 zinc ingot was 22660 yuan/ton, and Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry's 0 zinc ingot was 22800 yuan/ton [13]. - On August 5th, the zinc concentrate processing fees in different domestic regions varied. For 50% grade zinc concentrate, the fees ranged from 3400 - 4100 yuan/metal ton, and the imported 48% grade zinc concentrate processing fee was 70 US dollars/kiloton [17]. Trading and Position Ranking - On August 5th, for the Shanghai Futures Exchange member zinc trading and position ranking of the zn2509 contract, in terms of trading volume, Guotai Junan ranked first with 35478 lots and an increase of 14503 lots; in terms of long positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 9092 lots and an increase of 98 lots; in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 9684 lots and a decrease of 933 lots [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand, and the sentiment of policy benefits has faded. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures was 1,271 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.44% from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,250 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.81%; the main basis was - 21 yuan/ton, a rise of 61.54% [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1,250 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.3 Fundamental - Supply - The production profit of heavy soda ash has rebounded from a historical low, with a profit of - 22.90 yuan/ton for the North China ammonia - soda process and 56.50 yuan/ton for the East China co - production process [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 80.27%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output was 69.98 tons, with 39.87 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output was at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were large - scale new production capacity plans for soda ash, with 640 tons in 2023, 180 tons in 2024, and a planned 750 tons in 2025 (actual production of 100 tons) [21]. 3.4 Fundamental - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 109.83% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.96 tons, and the operating rate was stable at 75% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continued to fall. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry cut production, and the daily melting volume in production decreased significantly [30]. 3.5 Fundamental - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 179.58 tons, a decrease of 3.69% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [33]. 3.6 Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34]. 3.7 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The peak summer maintenance period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5].