交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 基本面分析 1 The first chapter of the small title 综述及观点总结 2 The third chapter of the small title 2 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 钢矿周报（1.19-1.23） 1、原料市场状况分析 一周数据变化 | 项目 | 上期数据 | 本期数据 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PB粉价格（元/湿吨） | 819 | 802 | -17 | | 巴混粉价格（元/湿吨） | 844 | 827 | -17 | | PB粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | 23.21 | 18.82 | -4.39 | | 巴混粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | 1 ...

证券代码：839979 碳酸锂期货周报 2026年01月19日-01月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 一．回顾与展望 本周05合约为上涨态势，周一开盘价为147600元/吨，周五收盘价为181520元/吨，周涨幅为22.98%。 供给端来看，本周碳酸锂产量为22217吨，高于历史同期平均水平，其中锂辉石产13914吨，环比减少 1.48%,高于历史同期平均水平，锂云母产2882吨，环比减少1.83%,高于历史同期平均水平，盐湖产3115吨， 环比减少0.95%,高于历史同期平均水平，回收产2306吨，环比减少3.91%,高于历史同期水平。 需求端来看，2025年12月碳酸锂需求量为130118实物吨，环比减少2.49%,预测下月需求量为11716 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to rapeseed meal, indicating a balanced view on its investment prospects [8] Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal prices first rose and then fell, influenced by the rebound of soybean meal and technical consolidation. The market returned to a short - term oscillation due to the potential cancellation of restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports by China. In the short term, the market is weakly oscillating due to the easing of China - Canada trade relations, but in the medium term, it will maintain a range - bound pattern. The spot demand for rapeseed meal is in the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market, and the post - Spring Festival demand expectation is good [8] - The market is currently focused on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [11] - After the impact of the improvement in China - Canada trade relations and the digestion of overall negative factors, rapeseed meal will maintain an oscillating pattern. Future trends depend on the development of China - Canada trade relations [8] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry is in the off - season after the long holiday. The supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Due to China - Canada trade issues, the short - term export of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decrease, reducing domestic supply [10] - With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, China - Canada trade relations have improved in the short term. The mutual tariffs are expected to be gradually cancelled, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [10] - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [10] - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is ongoing. The reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodity prices [10] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The demand for rapeseed meal in China after the Spring Festival is expected to be good, and the rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills is under no pressure [11] - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal is currently in the off - season, and the improvement in China - Canada trade relations means that China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [11] - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [11] 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Balance Sheets**: Detailed supply - demand balance sheets for domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2016 - 2025 are provided, including data on harvest area, production, inventory, and consumption [16][18] - **Import and Production**: There were no arrivals of imported rapeseed in January, and the import cost was affected by tariff expectations. The rapeseed processing volume of oil mills remained at zero, and the rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories of oil mills were at low levels [19][21][23] - **Aquaculture**: Aquaculture fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable. Data on China's aquatic product, fish, shellfish, and shrimp - crab production, as well as OECD's estimates of China's fish production and imports, are provided [25][27][31] - **Price**: Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after reaching the bottom, while the spot price was relatively stable, with the spot price at a relatively high premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened, and the price difference of the 2605 contract rebounded to a high level [33][38] 5. Position Data - The short positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed out, indicating a bearish sentiment [8] 6. Rapeseed Meal Trading Strategy - **Futures**: In the short term, it will return to range - bound trading. The RM2605 contract will oscillate between 2200 and 2400 in the short term. Traders can either trade short - term or wait and see [13] - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [13] 7. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal is weakly oscillating due to the improvement in China - Canada trade relations. The KDJ indicator has rebounded from the low - level oscillation, and the MACD is undergoing technical adjustment with the green energy narrowing. In the short term, it is weakly oscillating, and in the medium term, it is oscillating strongly. Future trends depend on policy and soybean meal trends [43] 8. Next Week's Focus Points - **Most Important**: The growth and harvest weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic processing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45] - **Second - most Important**: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, the rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [45] - **Third - most Important**: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the 05 contract showed an upward trend. Next week, demand may remain weak, and with a projected decrease in maintenance and a slight increase in scheduled production, the market may experience narrow - range adjustments [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - This week, the 05 contract opened at 4,806 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 4,921 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 2.39% [5]. - In December 2025, PVC production was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.70%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 344,650 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 137,430 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.86%. Supply pressure decreased this week. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and scheduled production is expected to increase slightly [5]. - The overall downstream operating rate was 44.86%, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, and paste resin were also higher than the historical average, while the operating rate of downstream films decreased by 0.36 percentage points. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [5]. - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 799.55 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 20.60%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 49.44 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 64.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 1,908.23 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in profit of 3.80%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may face pressure [6]. - Factory inventory was 308,109 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 223,969 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.78%, and ethylene factory inventory was 84,140 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.69%. Social inventory was 576,486 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.65%. The inventory days of production enterprises was 5.1 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92%. Overall inventory is at a neutral level [6]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price and trading volume trends of the main contract, and the spread analysis of the main contract through charts, but no specific text analysis is provided [10][13][16]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, etc. of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit and consumption of chlor - alkali in Shandong [19][22][25][27][30]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily and weekly production, and weekly maintenance volume of calcium carbide and ethylene methods through charts [32][34]. - **Demand Trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream operating rate of PVC, and the cost, profit, production, and consumption of paste resin. It also presents real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment data [37][39][41][45][47]. - **Inventory**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [49]. - **Ethylene Method**: It shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and the price difference of ethylene FOB and vinyl chloride import through charts [51]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference of PVC from November 2024 to December 2025 [54]. 3.4 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to experience narrow - range adjustments next week [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 05 contract showed an upward trend this week, but it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week. The supply is expected to decrease, demand may recover slightly, and cost support will rise [4][5]. - For polysilicon, the 05 contract also rose this week, and it is also predicted to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week. Supply production is expected to continue to decrease, demand will show some recovery but may be weak later, and cost support will remain stable [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - Price: The 05 contract opened at 8,605 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 8,820 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 2.50% [4]. - Supply: This week's supply was 83,000 tons, a 2.35% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 44,140 tons, a 0.23% increase. The expected monthly operating rate is 61%, a 3.59 - percentage - point decrease from last month [4]. - Demand: This week's demand was 70,000 tons, a 4.10% decrease. Demand remains sluggish, with different situations in polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy sectors [5]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang was 9,794.9 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. Cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 556,000 tons, a 0.18% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 213,100 tons, a 2.70% increase; major port inventory was 137,000 tons, remaining unchanged [5]. Polysilicon - Price: The 05 contract opened at 50,200 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 50,720 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.04% [8]. - Supply: Last week's production was 20,500 tons, a 4.65% decrease. The predicted January production schedule is 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from last month [8]. - Demand: Different trends are seen in silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. Overall, demand shows some recovery but may be weak later [8][9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 15,400 yuan/ton [8]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 330,000 tons, a 2.80% increase, at a historically high level [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: Analyzes the trends of the SI main contract basis and the price difference between different grades of silicon [15][16]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: Presents the inventory trends of industrial silicon in different regions and ports [18][19][20]. - Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends: Shows the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon sample enterprises [22][23][24]. - Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends: Analyzes the cost trends of industrial silicon in different regions [29][30][31]. - Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance: Provides both weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables for industrial silicon [33][34][37]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon: Covers various aspects such as price, production, import - export, and inventory trends [39][40][42]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy: Analyzes price, supply, inventory, and production trends, as well as the demand from the automotive and wheel hub sectors [47][48][52]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon: Includes cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [55][56][59]. 3. Technical Analysis - SI Main Contract: This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [79]. - PS Main Contract: This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [81].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（1.19~1.23） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铝周报： 沪铝上周高位震荡，上周主力合约上涨1.53%，周五收盘报24290元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能，国 内房地产压制需求不振，取消对铝材出口退税，对于国内铝价构成利空，消费有所影响，但注意铝代 铜机会。国内基本面上，需求处于淡季，关注后期消费变化。上周LME库存507275吨，较前周出现小幅 增加，SHFE周库存增11174吨至197053吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（1.19~1.23） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜高位震荡，沪铜主力合约上涨0.57%，收报于101340元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价， 全球不稳定因素仍存，印尼铜矿出险不可抗力和贵金属大涨，对铜价有明显支撑作用，全球不确定行 仍存。国内方面，消费淡季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚 需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存171700吨，上周大幅增加，上期所铜库存较上周增12422吨至 225937吨。 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，202 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢周报（1.19-1.23） 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 观点和策略 2 基本面 3 技术分析 4 产业链梳理总结 一、观点和策略 沪镍观点：本周镍价震荡偏强运行，整体成交一般，金川出厂价格坚挺，进口货源有一定 到货，短缺有一定缓解。产业链上，镍矿价格上涨，矿山报价连续上调，印尼相对稳定但 也有小幅上升，看涨情绪较浓重。镍铁价格继续上涨，成本线上升。不锈钢库存小幅回落， 去库存化良好。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体 镍需求提振有限。 操作策略： 沪镍主力：高位宽幅震荡，日内交易为主。 不锈钢主力：偏强运行，空头暂观望。 二、基本面分析 1、产业链周度价格变化 2、镍矿市场状况分析 3、电解镍市场状况分析 4、镍铁市场状况分析 5、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, sugar prices generally fluctuated and declined, with a possibility of a second bottoming Import volume increased significantly, and the price was lower than that of domestic spot sugar, while downstream sales were weak Currently in the off - season for consumption, the market is generally weak [5] - Near the Chinese New Year holiday, downstream market procurement is inactive Large - volume and low - price imported sugar is squeezing the market share of domestic sugar The main contract 05 is oscillating at a low level, and attention should be paid to the 5200 long - short watershed [6] - Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a supply surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review (Weekly Review) - Sugar prices fluctuated and declined this week with a possible second bottoming Import volume increased significantly, and downstream sales were weak In the off - season for consumption, the market was generally weak [5] - Different institutions have different predictions for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand situation ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton surplus, DATAGRO has revised it down to 100 million tons from 280 million tons, Czarnikow has raised it to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate, and StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus [5] - By the end of December 2025, in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 470.18 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 157 million tons, and the sales rate was 33.39% In December 2025, China imported 58 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 19 million tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 6.97 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.08 million tons [5] 3.2 Daily Prompt - Near the Chinese New Year holiday, downstream market procurement is inactive Large - volume and low - price imported sugar is squeezing the market share of domestic sugar The main contract 05 is oscillating at a low level, and attention should be paid to the 5200 long - short watershed [6] 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - Bullish factors: Possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, increase in syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose Bearish factors: Increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [7] - Different institutions' predictions for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand situation: StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth; ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton surplus as global sugar production is expected to grow by 3.15% while consumption only grows by 0.6%; Datagro predicts a 153 - million - ton surplus as the global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [32] - Sugar production - related data from 2024/25 to 2025/26: Sugarcane and beet planting and harvesting areas, sugarcane and beet yields per hectare, sugar production, imports, consumption, and price ranges are provided [33] - The cost and profit of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff from December 2025 to January 2026 are presented [37] 3.5 Position Data - No relevant information provided

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（1.19-1.23） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周棉花总体围绕14500上下震荡，棉花经过前一轮快速上涨之后，目前消化涨幅，进一步上 冲动力不足，同时下跌也有支撑。 2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。USDA12月报：25/26年度产量2608.1万吨， 消费2582.3万吨，期末库存1654.1万吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下 降5.12%。12月份我国棉花进口18万吨，同比增加31%；棉纱进口17万吨，同比增加13.33%。 农村部12月25/26年度：产量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存 ...