交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-07原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3.库存：美国截至8月1日当周API原油库存减少423.3万桶，预期减少184.5万桶；美国至8月1日当周EIA库 存减少302.9万桶，预期减少59.1万桶；库欣地区库存至8月1日当周增加45.3万桶，前值增加69万桶；截止 至8月6日，上海原油期货库存为524.9万桶，不变；偏多 4.盘面：20日均线偏下，价格在均线下方；偏空 5.主力持仓：截至7月29日，WTI原油主力持仓多单，多增；截至7月29日，布伦特原油主力持仓多单，多 增；偏多； 6.预期：尽管前半夜对印度仍额外加征25%的关税打击进口俄油和EIA库存全口径去库支撑油价，但后续据 纽约时报报道，特朗普打算最快在下周与俄罗斯总统普京进行面对面会晤，随后还 ...

豆粕早报 2025-08-07 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆冲高回落，美豆产区天气整体良好和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口附近震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，需 求良好和技术性震荡整理，八月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期 或回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2910（华东），基差-116，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存104.31万吨，上周99.84万吨，环比增加4.48%，去年同期134.59万吨， 同比减少22.5%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **沪镍**: The external market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, facing significant pressure at the 20 - day moving average. The industry chain presents a situation where ore prices and ferronickel prices are weakly stable, with some quotes rising, but the cost line remains at a low level. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season in July and August, and the inventory of the 300 - series increased slightly this week. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the loading volume of ternary batteries is decreasing, leading to a decline in nickel demand in the new energy sector. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The basis is positive, LME inventory increased, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions. It is expected that Shanghai nickel 2509 will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless steel price remained flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are weakly stable, sea freight rates are firm, and ferronickel prices are weakly stable with some slight increases, but the cost line is still at a low level. Stainless steel consumption has entered the off - season. The basis is positive, the futures warehouse receipts decreased. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. It is expected that stainless steel 2509 will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures**: On August 6, the price of Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,070, up 160 from the previous day; the price of LME nickel was 15,130, up 75; the price of stainless steel main contract was 12,935, down 25. The nickel index of Wuxi trading center was 121,100, up 700, and the cold - rolled coil index was 12,520, up 20 [12]. - **Spot**: On August 6, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 122,100, up 200; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 123,200, up 200; the price of 1 imported nickel was 121,300, up 200; the price of nickel beans was 123,400, up 200. The prices of cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [12]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of August 1, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 25,750 tons, with the futures inventory at 21,374 tons, an increase of 299 tons and a decrease of 573 tons respectively. On August 6, LME nickel inventory was 211,452, an increase of 198; Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 20,789, a decrease of 134; the total inventory was 232,241, an increase of 64 [14][15]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On August 1, the inventory in Wuxi was 61,950 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 324,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,111,200 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 676,700 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons. On August 6, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 102,803, a decrease of 62 [19][20]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On August 6, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 57 US dollars per wet ton, and that with Ni0.9% was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 11 US dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 12 US dollars per ton, also unchanged. The price of high - nickel ferronickel was 918 yuan per nickel point, up 2; the price of low - nickel ferronickel was 3,400 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [23]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel is 12,832, the production cost using scrap steel is 13,477, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel is 16,404 [25]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price is 122,262 yuan per ton [28]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive factors**: The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" period and the anti - involution policy [7]. - **Negative factors**: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new growth points in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged; nickel ore prices and ferronickel prices are weakly stable, and the cost line remains at a low level; the substitution ratio of ternary batteries is increasing [7].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-8-7 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工 订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1104元/吨，FG2509收盘价为1083元/吨，基差为21元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5949.90万重量箱，较前一周减少3.87%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：政策利好消退，玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空： 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of soda ash is strong while the demand is weak. The sentiment of policy benefits has faded. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly. The industry's supply-demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1371 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [6]. - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1320 yuan/ton, up 5.60% [6]. - The main basis was -50 yuan/ton, down 57.63% [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1320 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.3 Fundamental - Supply - The production profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process was -22.90 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process was 56.50 yuan/ton, with production profit rebounding from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 80.27%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [18]. - The weekly output of soda ash was 69.98 tons, with heavy soda ash at 39.87 tons, at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant capacity expansion and new production plans in the soda ash industry [21]. 3.4 Fundamental - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 109.83% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.96 tons, and the operating rate stabilized at 75% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continued to fall. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry reduced production, and the daily melting volume in production decreased significantly [30]. 3.5 Fundamental - Inventory - The national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 3.69% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [2][33]. 3.6 Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of soda ash from 2017 - 2024E showed that the industry's supply - demand relationship has fluctuated, with capacity, production, and demand all changing [34]. 3.7 Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The peak summer maintenance period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The downstream photovoltaic glass has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3.8 Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main Logic**: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [5]. - **Risk Points**: The cold repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is less than expected, and macro - level benefits exceed expectations [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a state of complex supply - demand balance. The overall supply is relatively high, and the demand is gradually strengthening. The cost of different raw materials varies, and the profitability also shows differences. The market is expected to shift towards demand - led in the future, with the lithium carbonate 2511 contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 67,980 - 71,260 [8]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Last week, lithium carbonate production decreased by 7.31% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 1.08% day - on - day, with a profit of 2,248 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica decreased by 0.61% day - on - day, with a loss of 6,781 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production scheduling enthusiasm is average [8]. - **Basis**: On August 6th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 1,330 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory decreased by 1.00% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters decreased by 6.18% week - on - week, while the downstream inventory increased by 7.18% week - on - week [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the main position increased, showing a bearish situation [8]. - **Expectation**: In the future, supply is expected to increase, with production and imports expected to rise. Demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. The supply - demand pattern will shift towards demand - led, and the lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 67,980 - 71,260 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Lithium Ore**: The price of 6% lithium spodumene decreased by 1.58% to 748 US dollars/ton, and the price of 2.5% lithium mica concentrate decreased by 1.17% to 1,690 yuan/ton [14]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.35% to 70,950 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.36% to 68,850 yuan/ton [14]. - **Positive and Negative Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness to take delivery at the power battery end [9][10]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - **Lithium Ore**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 17.25% to 427,626 tons, and the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 16.31% to 17,697.62 tons [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production decreased by 1.01% to 141,726 tons, and the monthly production increased by 4.41% to 81,530 tons [17]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The monthly production increased by 2.94% to 25,170 tons, and the monthly net export volume increased by 0.73% to 4,777.73 tons [17]. 3.4 Demand - Side Data - **Lithium Batteries**: The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 9.70% to 252,200 tons, and the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate lithium batteries increased by 1.86% to 290,700 tons [17]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The monthly production decreased by 0.16% to 1,268,000 vehicles, and the monthly sales increased by 1.68% to 1.329 million vehicles [17].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 2025-08-07 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2680至2740区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，需求良好和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕库存 维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库存短 期无压力，盘面短期或维持区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕， 但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2640，基差-105，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.9万吨，上周1.51万吨，周环比增加25.83%，去年同期3.4万吨，同比减 少44.12% ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-07甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1.部分装置停车：榆林凯越、新疆新业等。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：基本面分化加剧，预计甲醇后期区域性走势特征凸显。港口市场，预计本周进口到货集中下，港口累库概 率较大，同时浙江煤制烯烃装置停车检修加上行业淡季，一定程度上拖累整体需求，预测本周港口市场偏弱调整为主， 需持续关注进口到货及宏观外围消息。内地方面，虽然甲醇开工处于增加趋势，但内地企业库存偏低短期供应无压力， 叠加烯烃装置重启以及西北CTO企业仍有外采需求，供需基本面健康对内地甲醇价格有支撑，但同时受港口弱势行情拖 累，预计后期内地甲醇维持窄幅震荡调整阶段；中性 2、基差： ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate in July 2025 remained supply - strong and demand - weak, but the supply - demand gap decreased. It is expected to continue improving in the second half of the year, but the improvement will be limited. - In the second half of the year, the growth rate of upstream supply may stabilize, there is still some growth space for downstream demand, and the cost side, especially the ore end, will have little room for further decline. After the recent sharp rise, the futures price is expected to fall back but will still be higher than the previous high and mainly adjust with wide - range fluctuations [4][64]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Review and Logic Sorting - **Futures Trend Review**: The lithium carbonate main contract in July 2025 first showed a long - position trend and then a short - position trend. It opened at 62,140 yuan/ton on July 1st and closed at 68,280 yuan/ton on July 31st, with a monthly increase of 10.98%. The supply remained high, inventory was high, and the subsequent production increase of downstream cathode material factories was less than expected. The import of lithium carbonate from Chile decreased, and short - term demand drove the market up. The futures market is expected to show narrow - range fluctuations. The basis showed a clear trend, with the futures price rising faster than the spot price after July 18th, and then the spot price leading the futures price again after July 25th. If the demand cannot be sustained, the basis is expected to narrow [5]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Production**: In July, the domestic production of spodumene and lepidolite was still in a cost - profit inversion state, with the total lepidolite output at 21,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 3.21%) and spodumene output at 6,500 tons (a month - on - month increase of 0.78%). The import of spodumene from Australia in July was 255,506 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.20%. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite continued to rise steadily. The lithium ore was in a state of slight supply shortage in July, and the inventory decreased slightly. The supply - demand gap in the second half of the year is expected to continue to narrow. The domestic lithium carbonate production in July was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The production was mainly battery - grade. The output from the waste lithium - battery recycling end decreased significantly due to cost - profit inversion. The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate turned from slight oversupply to slight undersupply in July, and it is expected to be in a tight - balance state in the second half of the year. The production capacity of lithium hydroxide continued to increase, but its downstream demand was weak. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of lithium hydroxide was obvious, and its price is expected to face downward pressure in the short term [9][15][17]. - **Cost and Profit**: The overall cost of the ore end continued to decline. Enterprises using externally - purchased spodumene as raw materials had high costs. By the end of July, the cost of spodumene had dropped to around 68,000 yuan/ton, and the processing cost rebounded slightly, with corresponding enterprises having a small profit. The processing cost of lepidolite also rebounded, and enterprises were still in a loss state. The cost of salt - lake lithium extraction was much lower than that of the ore end and remained profitable. The cost of the waste - battery recycling end remained stable, and the loss situation did not change. Except for the salt - lake end, other production methods were still in a cost - profit inversion state [28]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts on the exchange decreased after May, with the current inventory at around 14,000 tons. Due to the large fluctuations in the spot and futures prices in July, the downstream's willingness to take delivery was low, and the inventory - accumulation pressure of upstream and downstream lithium carbonate enterprises increased. The inventory reduction in July mainly occurred in the upstream, while the downstream inventory increased slightly due to rigid demand. The overall inventory is expected to remain stable in the near future. The inventory of lithium hydroxide decreased in July, but the de - stocking rate is expected to be low, and its price increase space may be limited [39]. - **Demand Side** - **Power/Storage Batteries**: The production of power batteries remained high, and the price was stable. The loading demand in July remained high, but the increase was limited, providing stable support for upstream demand. The inventory of ternary power batteries was basically stable, while that of lithium iron phosphate increased slightly. The de - stocking speed of ternary batteries decreased, while that of lithium iron phosphate increased. On the storage side, the winning - bid price and order volume decreased in June, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was low, with inventory pressure slightly higher than the same period in previous years, which is expected to suppress the futures price in the short term [44]. - **Ternary Precursors/Materials**: In July, the prices and costs of ternary precursors and ternary materials rebounded, and the overall loss situation improved slightly but still remained in a loss state. The supply - surplus situation intensified as the production increased slightly. The 5 - series, 6 - series, and 8 - series materials still dominated. The supply - demand situation of ternary precursors improved little, and the inventory reduction was limited [45]. - **Iron Phosphate/Lithium Iron Phosphate**: Since June 2024, the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate has continued to increase, but the operating rate has been low due to weak downstream demand. The production has been high, and the prices of iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate have continued to weaken. The loss in July improved with the rebound of the lithium carbonate price, and the inventory decreased after reaching a high level. However, the subsequent production scheduling may still face pressure, and the price may be suppressed [54]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: In June 2025, the production of new energy vehicles was 1,268,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15%; the sales were 1,329,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 1.68%; the export volume was 205,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The dealer inventory coefficient was 1.42, a month - on - month increase of 0.04, and the inventory warning coefficient in July was 51.8, a month - on - month increase of 1.3. The inventory pressure has emerged. The demand in July is expected to strengthen, and the inventory may be reduced. Overall, the new energy vehicle production decreased in June, demand remained stable, dealer inventory increased, and the support for upstream lithium carbonate is limited [58]. - **Supply - Demand Pattern Analysis** - **Supply**: The cost - profit inversion of the ore end has improved, while the continuous cost - profit inversion of the recycling end limits the output increase, which is expected to support the futures price in the short term [62]. - **Demand**: The power - battery production scheduling in July remained stable, but the increase was limited due to lower - than - expected downstream demand. The demand for new energy vehicles recovered weakly, and the dealer inventory pressure increased steadily, providing limited support for the futures price. The growth of energy - storage equipment was remarkable, but the low inventory - to - sales ratio may limit the downstream demand [63]. - **Summary**: The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate in July was still supply - strong and demand - weak, but the supply - demand gap decreased. It is expected to continue to improve in the second half of the year, but the improvement will be limited. The upstream supply growth may stabilize, the downstream demand has some growth space, and the cost, especially the ore end, will have little room for further decline. The futures price is expected to fall back after the recent sharp rise but will still be higher than the previous high and mainly adjust with wide - range fluctuations [64].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-7） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：山西超产检查扰动不断，区域资源有偏紧预期。市场情绪逐步回归，下游接货谨慎，炼焦 煤涨价氛围有所降温，线上竞拍涨势趋缓，但考虑目前煤矿库存压力较小，从而挺价意愿较强，且因焦 煤期货再次偏强上涨，部分煤种报价仍在小幅上行；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1090，基差-131；现货贴水期货；偏空 每日观点 焦炭： 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 6、预期：焦炭第五轮提涨全面落地，焦企开工维持高位，钢厂铁水产量也在高位波动，焦煤刚需依然 强劲。但目前钢焦企业补库节奏有所放缓，多数以按需采 ...