交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（1.26-1.30） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周棉花冲高回落，继续在14500-15000区间震荡。春节假期临近，下游工厂补库谨慎，棉花 价格上冲动力减弱。短期继续维持震荡整理。 2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。USDA12月报：25/26年度产量2608.1万吨， 消费2582.3万吨，期末库存1654.1万吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下 降5.12%。12月份我国棉花进口18万吨，同比增加31%；棉纱进口17万吨，同比增加13.33%。 农村部12月25/26年度：产量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万吨。 棉花主力05上方15000关口压力较大，短期预计在14500-15000区间震荡，夹板思路操作。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - This week, sugar prices fluctuated slightly and rose. Affected by the overall strengthening of commodity futures in the first half of the week, prices increased. However, sugar lacked its own upward momentum, and the fundamentals did not support a significant increase, so prices fluctuated and declined on Friday [5] - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar, 05, faces significant pressure above the 60 - day moving average and has fallen under short - term pressure. On Friday night, international sugar prices declined again. The low price of imported sugar suppresses the upward momentum of domestic sugar. It is expected to continue to fluctuate around 5200 [6] - Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a surplus in global supply in the new season, the international sugar price falling to around 14.5 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - This week, sugar prices fluctuated slightly and rose. Affected by the overall strengthening of commodity futures in the first half of the week, prices increased. However, sugar lacked its own upward momentum, and the fundamentals did not support a significant increase, so prices fluctuated and declined on Friday. Green Pool predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 season. As of the end of December 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 4.7018 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1.57 million tons, and the sales rate was 33.39%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons, and imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons [5] 2. Daily Prompt - Bullish factors: There is a gap in the domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet, but the medium - to - long - term gap is decreasing. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 5300. Since January 2025, the import tariff on syrup has increased, approaching the out - of - quota import tariff on raw sugar. Trump agreed to the modification of the cola formula, which is long - term bullish for sugar [9] - Bearish factors: The ISO predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 season. StoneX predicts a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 25/26 season. Czarnikow has raised its forecast for the global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August forecast. Green Pool predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 156,000 tons in the 26/27 season, lower than the 2.74 million tons in the 25/26 season. The USDA predicts that global sugar production will increase by 4.7% year - on - year in the 25/26 season, consumption will increase by 1.4%, and there will be a surplus of 11.397 million tons [9] 5. Fundamental Data - 25/26 season supply - demand situation forecasts by institutions in the past 3 months: StoneX (November 1, 2025) predicts a surplus of 3.7 million tons for the 2025/26 season due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) (November 4, 2025) predicts a surplus of 1.63 million tons for the 2025/26 season as global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only increases by 0.6%. Datagro (September 9, 2025) predicts a surplus of 1.53 million tons for the 2025/26 season as the global supply is expected to shift significantly from a shortage in the previous season to a surplus [32] - Sugar production - related data from 2024/25 to 2025/26: Sugarcane and beet planting and harvesting areas, yields, sugar production, imports, consumption, balance changes, international and domestic sugar prices are provided. For example, in the 2025/26 season (January forecast), the sugar production is 11.7 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, and consumption is 15.7 million tons [33] - Imported raw sugar processing cost and profit: The table shows the post - tax cost (50% tariff) of processed imported Brazilian raw sugar and the corresponding profit from December 2025 to January 2026. For example, on December 9, 2025, the post - tax cost was 5132 yuan/ton, and the profit was 618 yuan/ton [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai Aluminum first rose and then fell. The main contract increased by 1.11%, closing at 24,560 yuan/ton on Friday. Under the goal of carbon neutrality, production capacity is controlled in the long - term. Domestic real estate restrains demand, but opportunities for aluminum to replace copper should be noted. Currently, the demand is in the off - season, and later consumption changes should be monitored [3]. - From the perspective of the domestic fundamentals, last week, LME inventory was 495,725 tons, showing a slight increase compared with the previous week, and SHFE weekly inventory increased by 19,718 tons to 216,771 tons [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, Shanghai Aluminum first rose and then fell. The main contract increased by 1.11%, closing at 24,560 yuan/ton on Friday. The demand is in the off - season, and later consumption changes should be monitored. LME inventory was 495,725 tons with a slight increase, and SHFE weekly inventory increased by 19,718 tons to 216,771 tons [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals (Inventory Structure) 3.2.1 Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides the China annual supply - demand balance sheet for aluminum from 2018 to 2024 (in 10,000 tons). In 2018, production was 3,609, net imports were 7.03, apparent consumption was 3,615.03, actual consumption was 3,662.63, and the supply - demand balance was - 47.6. From 2019 to 2023, there were varying degrees of supply - demand deficits, with the largest deficit of - 68.61 in 2019. In 2024, there will be a supply - demand surplus of 15 [11]. 3.3 Market Structure 3.3.1 Spot - Futures Price Difference - No specific content provided 3.3.2 Import Profit - No specific content provided

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（1.26~1.30） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜冲高回落，沪铜主力合约上涨2.31%，收报于103680元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价， 全球不稳定因素仍存，印尼铜矿出险不可抗力和贵金属大涨，对铜价有明显支撑作用，全球不确定行 仍存。国内方面，消费淡季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚 需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存174975吨，上周小幅增加，上期所铜库存较上周增7067吨至 233004吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | 中国年度供需平衡 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2026-02-02 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2605：2250至2310区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，中国将取消加拿大农产品出口 限制市场短期利空出尽回归震荡。菜粕现货需求进入淡季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，加 上菜粕春节后需求预期良好，盘面短期受中加贸易关系缓和影响震荡偏弱中期仍维持区 间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2470，基差183，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕国内总库存43.78吨，上周44.95吨，周环比减少2.6%，去年同期50.2万吨，同 比减少12.79%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年12月PVC产量为213.7356万吨，环比增加2.79%；本周样本 企业产能利用率为78.93%，环比增加0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量34.716万吨，环比增加 0.73%,乙烯法企业产量13.611万吨，环比减少0.96%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检 修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为44.75%，环比减少0.10个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游 型材开工率为31.52%，环比持平，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37%，环比持平，高 于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为65.71%，环 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：特朗普提名沃什出任美联储主席，高位止盈离场重挫黄金；美国三大股 指小幅收跌，欧洲主要股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债收益 率涨0.62个基点报4.237%；美元指数涨1%报97.1，离岸人民币对美元贬值报 6.9589；COMEX黄金期货跌8.35%报4907美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1161.42，现货1158，基差-2.42，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单103029 千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓： ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货16250，基差-110 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净多，多减 偏多 6、预期：市场情绪降温，节前或区间波动 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、国内经济指标偏空 • 2、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 6、预期：春节假期临近，聚酯减产幅度扩大，终端放假在即，PTA供需趋累；现货市场交易活跃度明显下降，周内现货基差波 动不大，不过PTA加工差环比改善，关注后期PTA供应端计划外增量。 1、基本面：周五，2月上在05-75有成交，个别略低05-80，2月中在05-70~75有成交，在价格商谈区间在5150~5410。2月下在个 别05-70成交。3下零星在05-40有成交。今日主流现货基差在05-76。中性 2、基差：现货5290，05合约基差20，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.58天，环比减少0.04天 偏多 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年2月2日 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡回落走势，收20日均线之上,20日均线向上；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净多头，多减；偏多。 6、预期：LME库存仓单小幅增加；上期所仓单小幅增加；沪锌ZN2603：震荡 盘整。 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货25800，基差- ...