Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report indicates that the fundamentals of zinc show a supply shortage in the global zinc market from January to August 2025, but factors such as the basis, inventory, and the main position suggest a mixed outlook. The overall expectation for SHFE zinc contract ZN2512 is a sideways and bearish trend [2][22]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Zinc Fundamentals - In August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1507 million tons, consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 9.0885 million tons, consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August 2025, it was 8.4457 million tons [2]. 2. Zinc Futures Market on October 24 - The trading volume of zinc futures contracts totaled 204,908 lots, with a total turnover of 2.28443242 billion yuan. The open interest was 213,396 lots, a decrease of 3,282 lots [3]. 3. Domestic Spot Market on October 24 - The domestic spot price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 22,160 - 22,260 yuan/ton, in Guangdong was 22,090 - 22,190 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 22,185 - 22,285 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang was 22,235 - 22,335 yuan/ton [4]. 4. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics from October 13 - 23, 2025 - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on October 23 was 1.635 million tons, showing an increasing trend compared to October 13 [5]. 5. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on October 24 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on the futures exchange on October 24 were 65,849 tons, an increase of 320 tons from the previous day [7]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory on October 24 - The LME zinc inventory on October 24 was 37,600 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons from the previous day [9]. 7. Zinc Concentrate Prices on October 24 - The prices of 50% grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities increased by 70 yuan/ton [11]. 8. Zinc Ingot Smelter Prices on October 24 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters increased by 90 yuan/ton [14]. 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - The production of refined zinc in September 2025 was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The capacity utilization rate was 74.80%, and the planned production for October was 509,600 tons [17]. 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees on October 24 - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 105 US dollars/dry ton [4]. 11. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on October 24 - For the zn2512 contract, the total trading volume of member futures companies was 203,463 lots, a decrease of 41,622 lots from the previous day. The total long position was 84,356 lots, a decrease of 648 lots, and the total short position was 81,659 lots, a decrease of 3,620 lots [20]. 12. Short - term View - The previous trading day saw SHFE zinc fluctuate and rise, with shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with the short side reducing more. The short - term trend may be volatile. Technically, the price closed above the moving average system, and the short - term indicator KDJ rose into the strong zone, while the trend indicator declined, indicating a stalemate between long and short forces. The recommendation for SHFE zinc ZN2512 is a sideways and bearish trend [22].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年10月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：上周镍价震荡运行，成交一般，俄镍货源偏紧，住友等进口货源有一定到货。产业链上， 镍矿价格坚挺，菲律宾雨季慢慢来临，矿山挺价，海运费本周维稳。镍铁价格稳中有降，成本线继续向 下有所松动。不锈钢库存小幅回落，再次去库存，关注可持续性。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池 装车有所回升，但总体提振有限。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货122900，基差750，偏多 3、库存：LME库存250854，0，上交所仓单26810，-71，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2512：20均线上下宽幅震荡思路。 不锈钢 每 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coking coal, due to stricter safety and over - production inspections in major producing areas, coal mine production restrictions and maintenance have increased, leading to a supply contraction. Although downstream enterprises resist high coal prices, they are still making normal purchases, and coal mines have little inventory pressure. However, coking enterprises' raw material costs are high, downstream coking enterprise starts have slightly decreased, and pig iron production has continued to decline, pressuring the rigid demand for coking coal. Considering the recent positive performance of the futures market and the implementation of the second round of coke price increases, some coking enterprises' procurement enthusiasm remains high. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [3]. - For coke, the continuous rise in coking coal prices has significantly increased the coking enterprises' coal - input costs, narrowing their profit margins. After the second - round coke price increase, there is an expectation of profit repair. Currently, coking enterprises' production cuts and maintenance have not expanded further, and they are maintaining previous production levels. With supply contraction and downstream steel mills' rigid demand for restocking, coking enterprises are shipping smoothly and have no inventory pressure. Although steel mills' profits are low, the blast furnace operating rate remains high, and some steel mills are still urging deliveries. It is expected that coke prices will remain stable in the short term [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Coking Coal - Fundamental: Tightening supply due to inspections, good procurement by coking enterprises, and low coal mine inventory support coal prices; considered bullish [3]. - Basis: Spot price is 1300, basis is 51.5, spot premium to futures; considered bullish [3]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week; considered bullish [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; considered bullish [3]. - Main positions: Net long in the main coking coal contract, with a decrease in long positions; considered bullish [3]. - Expectation: Price may remain stable in the short term [3]. Coke - Fundamental: Rising coking coal prices have squeezed profit margins, but there is an expectation of profit repair after the second - round price increase. Supply contraction and downstream restocking lead to smooth shipments; considered neutral [7]. - Basis: Spot price is 1640, basis is - 117.5, spot discount to futures; considered bearish [7]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week; considered bullish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; considered bullish [7]. - Main positions: Net short in the main coke contract, with a decrease in short positions; considered bearish [7]. - Expectation: Price may remain stable in the short term [7]. Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Rising pig iron production, difficult supply increase [5]. - Bearish factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises, weak steel prices [5]. Coke - Bullish factors: Rising pig iron production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills, partial over - consumption of restocking demand [9]. Prices - On October 24, 2017:30, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke from Shanxi at Rizhao Port was 1490, and the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched metallurgical coke increased by 20 to 1710 [10]. - Imported coking coal prices varied by origin, brand, and port, with some prices rising [11]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [19]. Independent Coking Enterprises' Inventory - Coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [23]. Steel Mills' Inventory - Coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [28]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-27燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 近期多空分析 利多： 1. 俄罗斯燃油出口限制延长 2. 美俄会谈取消，对俄石油相关企业发起制裁 利空： 1.需求端乐观仍待验证 行情驱动：供应端受地缘风险影响与需求中性共振 风险点：OPEC+内部团结破坏；战争风险升级 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构小幅回升，因含硫0.5%船用燃料油的现货贴水从五年多来的最宽水平收窄， 主要得益于市场收盘评估过程中中国船舶燃料报出更坚挺的买盘；新加坡380CST高硫燃料油现货贴水为83美分/ 吨，较10月22日1.52美元/吨的贴水首次在五个交易日内收窄，主要受实物交易 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, due to optimistic Sino - US consultations and US CPI being lower than expected, the gold price continued to decline. The trade optimistic expectation returned, increasing the downward pressure on the gold price. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to - 0.3 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, with the Sino - US trade negotiation progressing optimistically and CPI being weaker than expected, the silver price declined. The premium of Shanghai silver slightly expanded to 290 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment remained strong. The trade optimistic expectation returned, strengthening the downward pressure on the silver price [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 0.45% to $4126.90 per ounce. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, most European major stock indexes rose, US Treasury yields rose collectively, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 5.35 basis points to 4.001%, the US dollar index was flat at 98.94, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1262 [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures fell 0.60% to $48.41 per ounce. The market situation was similar to that of gold in terms of stock indexes, Treasury yields, and exchange rates [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 1.07, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants was 87015 kg, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position was long, and the main long position decreased [5]. - Silver: The basis was - 21, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants was 664971 kg, with a daily increase of 1605 kg; the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position was long, and the main long position increased [6]. 3. Today's Focus - All - day: The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27th to 30th, and the heads of the central bank, the banking and insurance regulatory commission, and the securities regulatory commission will give keynote speeches; US President Trump will visit Japan until October 29th. - 09:15: China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size for September. - 16:15: RBA Governor Bullock will participate in a fireside chat. - 17:00: Germany's October IFO business climate index and the eurozone's September money supply M3. - TBD: A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. - 20:30: US durable goods orders for September. - 22:30: US October Dallas Fed business activity index [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the gold price was difficult to fall. The verification between the new US government's policy expectation and the reality will continue, and the sentiment of the gold price is high and still prone to rise and difficult to fall [10]. - Silver: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the silver price still mainly followed the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase [13]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1,690 to 169,611, a decrease of 0.99%; the short - position volume decreased by 1,057 to 66,178, a decrease of 1.57%; the net position decreased by 633 to 103,433, a decrease of 0.61% [30]. - Silver: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 7,473 to 353,609, a decrease of 2.07%; the short - position volume decreased by 4,217 to 265,839, a decrease of 1.56%; the net position decreased by 3,256 to 87,770, a decrease of 3.58% [33].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The domestic urea market remains oversupplied, but the short - term market is expected to warm up. The UR is predicted to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend today [4]. 3. Key Points by Section Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates are starting to decline from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The export volume has increased with a large but narrowing price difference between domestic and international markets. The overall domestic urea supply still exceeds demand, but the short - term market is expected to improve. The spot price of the delivery product is 1570 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 72, with a premium/discount ratio of - 4.6%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract's price has rebounded. Industrial demand is weak, agricultural demand is rising, international urea prices are strong, and the export volume has increased. Although the domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand, the short - term price is expected to warm up, and the UR is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend today [4]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Strong international prices, increasing exports, and short - term decline in daily production [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Domestic supply exceeding demand [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1570, with a change of +20; Shandong spot price is 1570, with a change of +20; Henan spot price is 1570, with no change; FOB China price is 2742 [6]. | | **Futures** | The price of the 01 contract is 1642, with a change of +4; the basis is - 72, with a change of +16; UR05 price is 1719, with a change of +9; UR09 price is 1748, with a change of +8 [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 5407, with a change of - 77; UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 221,000 tons); UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons (+15,000 tons); UR port inventory is 210,000 tons (- 236,000 tons) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-10-27投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8380，基差186，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多减。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：8000-8400附近区间震荡 每日观点 近期利 ...

每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：供给低位企稳回升，但沙河地区"煤改气"等供应端扰动因素较多；下游深加工订单 整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1052元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1092元/吨，基差为-40元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6661.30万重量箱，较前一周增加3.64%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面偏弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-10-27 影响因素总结 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单数量历史同期低位。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-10-27 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修量不及预期，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给处于高位；下游浮法玻璃供 给扰动较多，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1180元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1229元/吨，基差为-49元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.21万吨，较前一周增加0.09%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、浮法玻璃日熔量企稳。 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 主力基差 利空： 主要逻辑和风险 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic bond market is generally weak, with most yields of inter - bank market bonds rising, and long - term bonds performing poorly. The bond market is expected to fluctuate for some time, and its performance depends on the stock market, Sino - US talks, and the implementation of new regulations on fund redemptions [3]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the central bank continued to increase the volume of MLF for the 8th consecutive month. Although the manufacturing PMI in September improved, it was still below the boom - bust line. The CPI in September increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, while the core CPI's year - on - year increase expanded for the 5th consecutive month. The new social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level, and the M2 growth rate expanded due to the "migration of RMB deposits". The LPR remained unchanged as expected [4]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures all declined. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.25%, the 10 - year main contract (T2512.CFE) dropped 0.06% to 108.005, the 5 - year main contract (TF2512.CFE) decreased 0.05% to 105.615, and the 2 - year main contract (TS2512.CFE) fell 0.01% to 102.332 [3][7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - The inter - bank market's funds remained balanced and stable, with the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions stable at around 1.32%. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is favorable for the stock market, but there are few direct economic stimulus policies, so the pressure on bonds is not significant [3]. - On October 27, the central bank conducted 900 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. Since 700 billion yuan of MLF matured in October, the net MLF investment this month reached 200 billion yuan, marking the 8th consecutive month of increased MLF operations [3]. 3.3 Basis Analysis - The basis of the TS main contract is 0.0123, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The basis of the TF main contract is - 0.0168, meaning the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of the T main contract is 0.0235, and the basis of the TL main contract is 0.2081, both showing that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which are bullish [3]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - The balances of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively, which is neutral [3]. 3.5 Technical Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contracts are all trading below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4]. 3.6 Position Analysis - The net position of the TS main contract is long, and the long position is increasing. The net position of the TF main contract is long, and the long position is increasing. The net position of the T main contract is long, but the long position is decreasing [4].