沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货21910，基差-365，贴水期货，偏空。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周涨8353吨至123630吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，铝价震荡向上运行 近期利多利空分析 降息和需求疲软博弈 利多： 利空： 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 | 地方 地方 上海 ...

纯碱早报 2025-12-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： 每日观点 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较大投产计划，行业产量处于历史同期高位。 2、重碱下游光伏玻璃减产，对纯碱需求走弱。 主要逻辑和风险点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1115元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1133元/吨，基差为-18元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存153.86万吨，较前一周减少3.07%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, with production profit repair being sluggish, supply contraction falling short of expectations, downstream deep - processing orders being weak due to the real - estate drag, and inventory at a historically high level. It is expected to show a weak and oscillatory trend in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract increased from 994 yuan/ton to 1002 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.80%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass remained unchanged at 984 yuan/ton, and the main basis changed from - 10 yuan/ton to - 18 yuan/ton, an increase of 80.00% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 984 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side The report does not provide specific cost - side information, only mentions glass production profit but lacks detailed data. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide is 220, with an operating rate of 74.51%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level. The daily melting capacity is 157,200 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level [25][27]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - According to Longzhong Information, the apparent consumption of float glass in September 2025 was 4.7082 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventory [5][30]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 59.442 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][43]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [44]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: "Coal - to - gas" conversion in the Shahe area and industry cold - repair have led to production losses [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventory [5]. Main Logic The glass supply has stabilized at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and the glass factory inventory has increased. It is expected that the glass will show a weak and oscillatory trend at a low level [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货低位反弹，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走强，贸易商商谈为主。个别主流供应商报盘。12月 主流在01贴水30附近成交，少量在01-32有成交，个别略高，价格商谈区间在4630~4675。今日主流现货基差在01-30。中性 2、基差：现货4645，01合约基差-49，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.92天，环比增加0.14天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA供需格局变动不大，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，现货 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-12-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率有小幅回落，因西部部分装置停车，综合库存有所回落，去库 形态较明显。需求端，农业需求、工业需求按需为主，复合肥开工率同比明显回升，冬储需求较 强，提振盘面情绪。出口内外价差大，国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交割品现货1690（-20），基 本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差44，升贴水比例2.6%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存139.6万吨（-6.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡反弹，工业需求按需为主， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and spot trading was average. Some production capacities were cut recently, reducing supply pressure. In the industrial chain, the nickel ore tender in Indonesia was finalized, with nickel ore prices slightly declining and ocean freight remaining flat. The RKAB quota in Indonesia for 2026 is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating an expected supply surplus. Nickel iron prices remained stable with a slight decline, and the cost line stopped falling and stabilized. Stainless steel inventories decreased slightly. Refined nickel inventories remained at a high level, and the surplus pattern remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoints**: Nickel prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and spot trading was average. Some production capacities were cut, reducing supply pressure. In the industrial chain, the nickel ore tender in Indonesia was finalized, with nickel ore prices slightly declining and ocean freight remaining flat. The RKAB quota in Indonesia for 2026 is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating an expected supply surplus. Nickel iron prices remained stable with a slight decline, and the cost line stopped falling and stabilized. Stainless steel inventories decreased slightly. Refined nickel inventories remained at a high level, and the surplus pattern remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and for the medium - and long - term, sell on rebounds. The main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel ore prices decreased. Red soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% dropped from $56 to $54, a decrease of 3.57%; red soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% dropped from $50 to $48, a decrease of 4.00%. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped from $26,750 to $26,450, a decrease of 1.12%, while the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged at $29,500. Low - nickel iron (Shandong) remained unchanged at $3,300/ton, and high - nickel iron (Shandong) dropped from $895/ton to $890/ton, a decrease of 0.56%. Shanghai electrolytic nickel increased from $122,150 to $122,570, an increase of 0.34%; Shanghai Russian nickel increased from $117,900 to $118,320, an increase of 0.36%; Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased from $121,600 to $122,700, an increase of 0.90%. The price of 304 stainless steel remained unchanged at $13,275 [13][14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Nickel ore prices decreased by $2/wet ton this week, and ocean freight remained the same as last week. As of December 4, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.6971 million wet tons, a decrease of 176,200 wet tons or 1.18% from the previous period. In October 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million tons, a decrease of 1.4316 million tons or 23.41% from the previous month, but an increase of 462,800 tons or 10.97% year - on - year. The nickel ore tender was finalized this week, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore decreased slightly, with downstream purchasing based on rigid demand [17][18]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Nickel prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and spot trading was average. After some production cuts, the surplus narrowed, but the supply pressure remained strong. Globally, the nickel market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern dominated by low - cost Indonesian production capacities. Traditional demand such as stainless steel has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. In November 2025, China's refined nickel production was 28,392 tons, a decrease of 14.85% from the previous month and 15.27% year - on - year. LME inventories decreased by 1,644 tons to 253,116 tons, while SHFE inventories increased by 1,726 tons to 42,508 tons [23][26][38]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - Nickel iron prices stopped falling and remained stable. Low - nickel iron prices remained unchanged at $3,300/ton, and high - nickel iron prices dropped. In October 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual production in metal terms was 22,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.43% but a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. In October 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 905,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons or 16.6% from the previous month, but an increase of 214,000 tons or 31.0% year - on - year. The nickel iron inventory in October was 209,100 physical tons, equivalent to 19,800 tons of nickel [42][46][49]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel remained unchanged. In October, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4267 million tons. The latest stainless steel import volume was 124,100 tons, and the export volume was 358,100 tons. As of December 5, the inventory in Wuxi was 576,400 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 346,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1.0803 million tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from the previous period [58][62][68]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20% respectively. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively. In October, the production and sales of power and other batteries were 170.6 GWh and 166 GWh respectively, a month - on - month increase of 12.9% and 13.3% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 50.5% and 50.8% respectively [73][76]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price fluctuated slightly above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average continued to move downward. In terms of positions, the increase was limited, indicating that short - selling forces did not suppress the price again. From the indicators, MACD maintained an upward trend, while KDJ entered the overbought zone and needed to adjust. Overall, the price will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [79]. 3.4 Industry Chain Summary - The impact of each link on nickel prices: nickel ore is neutral; nickel iron is neutral to bearish; refined nickel is neutral to bearish; stainless steel is neutral; new energy is neutral to bearish. The trading strategy is that the main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and for the medium - and long - term, sell on rebounds. The main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [82][84][85].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖周报（12.1-12.5） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周白糖继续加速下跌，由于进口糖大量增加，价格较低，国内新糖现货销售疲软。期货目前基 本跌至进口糖成本价附近，下跌空间不大。现货目前价格较高，还有下跌空间。 ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应过剩163万吨。DATAGRO:25/26年度全球食糖过剩预计从之前的 280万吨下调至100万吨。Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高 出120万吨。StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩370万吨。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制 糖全国累计产糖111 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the global sugar market for the 2025/26 season, with different estimates ranging from 100 to 740 million tons. The current season's production, sales, and import data in China also show a bearish trend. However, factors such as increased syrup tariffs and the use of sucrose in US cola recipes are positive. The SR2601 contract is approaching delivery, and trading is recommended to shift to the SR2605 contract. The futures price is accelerating towards the bottom, and the current position has increased short - chasing risks. Wait patiently for a reversal signal before bottom - fishing [4][7][9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the 2025/26 global sugar market. In China, by the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 1116.21 million tons, cumulative sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixes was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons. This is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5500 yuan/ton, and the basis for the SR2605 contract is 267 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August 2024/25, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [6]. - **Expected**: The SR2601 contract is approaching delivery, and trading is recommended to shift to the SR2605 contract. The cost of imported sugar with full - tariff is around 5200 yuan/ton. The futures price is accelerating towards the bottom, and this round of decline is nearing the end. The risk of short - chasing at the current position increases, and wait patiently for a reversal signal before bottom - fishing [5][9]. 3. Matters to Watch Today No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply and demand balance, with surpluses ranging from 100 to 740 million tons. In China, the sugar production, sales, and import data for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are also presented, showing a complex supply - demand situation [4][9]. - **Price and Cost**: The import cost of raw sugar processed with 50% tariff and the domestic and international sugar prices are provided, showing the impact of price changes on the sugar market [9][42]. - **Sugarcane and Beet Data**: Information on sugarcane and beet planting, harvesting areas, yields, and sugar production in China from 2024/25 to 2025/26 is presented [37]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年11月PVC产量为207.926万吨，环比减少2.29%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为79.89%，环比减少0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量35.5176万吨，环比减少0.10%,乙烯法企业产 量13.526万吨，环比增加1.46%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.07%，环比减少0.53个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为35.87%，环比减少0.22个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37.4%，环比减少1.4个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开 ...

1 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比有所减少3.29%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.2万吨，环比减少12.19%.需求持续低迷. 多晶硅库存为29.1万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1215元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.84%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.38万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为206元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为673.76元/吨，再生铝开工率为61.5%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本 ...