交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-9-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，官方PMI为49.4，比上月上升0.1个百分点，财新PMI50.4，较 前月上升0.6个百分点，制造业景气度有所改善。8 月以美元计价的中国出口额为3218.1 亿美元， 同比增长4.4%，较 7 月有所回落。美联储降息落地，原油近期价格震荡。9月19日晚，中美领导 人通话同意平等磋商妥善处理经贸等领域分歧。供需端，农膜逐渐进入旺季，包装膜以刚需为主， 下游开工提升，但整体需求仍较往年偏弱。当前LL交割品现货价7180（-40），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差11，升贴水比例0.2%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存55 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: Last week, nickel prices showed a weak trend, with downstream demand being mainly for rigid needs and trading volume being average. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices remained firm, and shipping costs increased steadily due to rising coal prices. Ferronickel prices continued to rise slightly, pushing up the cost line, but ferronickel enterprises still faced losses overall. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline, with good inventory reduction during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. New energy vehicle production and sales data were positive, but the loading of ternary batteries continued to decline, having limited impact on nickel demand. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains unchanged. The conclusion is that Shanghai nickel 2510 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: Spot stainless steel prices remained flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices and shipping costs were firm, and ferronickel prices increased steadily, resulting in a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline, with good inventory reduction during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The conclusion is that stainless steel 2511 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview | Type | 9 - 19 Price | 9 - 18 Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Futures** | | | | | Shanghai nickel main contract | 121,500 | 120,940 | +560 | | LME nickel | 15,270 | 15,335 | - 65 | | Stainless steel main contract | 12,860 | 12,875 | - 15 | | **Spot** | | | | | SMM1 electrolytic nickel | 122,750 | 122,700 | +50 | | 1 Jinchuan nickel | 123,950 | 123,800 | +150 | | 1 imported nickel | 121,900 | 121,900 | 0 | | Nickel beans | 124,050 | 124,050 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Wuxi) | 13,950 | 13,950 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Foshan) | 14,150 | 14,150 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Hangzhou) | 13,950 | 13,950 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Shanghai) | 14,000 | 14,000 | 0 | [11] 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of September 19, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 29,834 tons, with futures inventory at 25,843 tons, an increase of 2,334 tons and 2,314 tons respectively [13]. | Type | 9 - 19 Inventory | 9 - 18 Inventory | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME nickel | 228,444 | 228,450 | - 6 | | Shanghai nickel (warehouse receipts) | 25,843 | 25,866 | - 23 | | Total inventory | 254,287 | 254,316 | - 29 | [14] 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On September 19, the inventory in Wuxi was 579,200 tons, in Foshan was 288,000 tons, and the national inventory was 987,100 tons, a decrease of 25,400 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 617,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons compared to the previous period [18]. | Type | 9 - 19 Inventory | 9 - 18 Inventory | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless steel warehouse receipts | 89,732 | 90,146 | - 414 | [19] 3.4 Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices | Type | Grade | 9 - 19 Price | 9 - 18 Price | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Red clay nickel ore CIF | Ni1.5% | 57 | 57 | 0 | US dollars/wet ton | | Red clay nickel ore CIF | Ni0.9% | 29 | 29 | 0 | US dollars/wet ton | | Shipping cost (Philippines - Lianyungang) | | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | | Shipping cost (Philippines - Tianjin Port) | | 12.5 | 12.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | | High - nickel (wet ton) | 8 - 12 | 954.5 | 954.5 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Low - nickel (wet ton) | Below 2 | 3,470 | 3,470 | 0 | Yuan/ton | [21] 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Cost | Type | Cost | | --- | --- | | Traditional cost | 13,155 | | Scrap steel production cost | 13,562 | | Low - nickel + pure nickel cost | 16,853 | [23] 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation The converted import price is 123,099 yuan/ton [26]. 3.7 Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive factors**: The demand boost expectation during the "Golden September and Silver October", anti - involution policies, and cost support at 120,000 yuan [6]. - **Negative factors**: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged; the loading volume of ternary batteries decreases year - on - year [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Report's Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Supply of natural rubber is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is decreasing, and tire operating rates are high The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, while downstream consumption is high [4][6] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full latex (non - deliverable) fell on September 19, and the spot price is resistant to decline [8][6] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased recently, and Qingdao area inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year [14][4] - **Import**: Import volume has rebounded [20] - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are rebounding [23][29][32] 3. Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply, negative domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6] 4. Basis - The spot price is 14,700, and the basis is - 835, showing a bearish signal The basis weakened on September 19 [4][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase, demand recovery is slow, and the price is predicted to fluctuate between 8775 - 9035. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to be stable in the medium - term, demand is gradually recovering, and the price is predicted to fluctuate between 52285 - 54125 [6][8][10]. - The main logic for the market is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to an oversupply situation, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also factors such as cost support and inventory levels affecting the market [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Industrial Silicon - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease. The inventory of polysilicon, silicone, and aluminum alloy ingots is at different levels, with silicone and aluminum alloy ingots at high levels [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Bearish. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season, with a production loss of 3237 yuan/ton for sample oxygen - passing 553 [6]. - **Basis**: On September 18, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 195 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased, which is bearish [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreased, which is bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply schedule is increasing, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The price of industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 8775 - 9035 [8]. 3.2 Daily View - Polysilicon - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase. The demand side shows that the production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has different changes, and the current production of silicon wafers is in a loss state [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Neutral. Although the production is increasing, it is currently in a loss state [10]. - **Basis**: On September 18, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 605 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [10]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 219,000 tons, a 3.79% increase, at a low level in the same period, which is neutral [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [10]. - **Expectation**: The supply schedule will decrease in the short - term and recover in the medium - term. Demand is gradually recovering, and cost support is stable. The price of polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 52285 - 54125 [10]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices of most contracts decreased, and spot prices remained unchanged. Inventory increased, and production and some regions' operating rates also changed [16]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices of most contracts decreased. The production and inventory of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components changed, and the export of photovoltaic cells increased [18]. 3.4 Price and Basis Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The report shows the trends of the basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon [20]. - **Polysilicon**: It shows the trends of the disk price and the basis of the main contract [23]. 3.5 Inventory, Production, and Capacity Utilization - **Industrial Silicon**: Inventory in various regions and warehouses increased. The production and operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions also changed [16][26][28]. - **Polysilicon**: The total inventory increased, and the production and operating rates of related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also changed [10][18]. 3.6 Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The cost and profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang are presented [34]. - **Polysilicon**: The cost trend of the polysilicon industry is shown [62]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon [36][39]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance of polysilicon [65]. 3.8 Downstream Market Analysis - **Organic Silicon**: Analyzes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [42][44][49]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Analyzes the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy [52][55][57]. - **Polysilicon Downstream**: Analyzes the cost, price, production, inventory, and supply - demand balance trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and related accessories in the polysilicon downstream industry [62][68][71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand logic of methanol in China is different this week, showing a regional trend with the north stronger than the south. The price of methanol in production areas is likely to rise, while the rising range in sales areas is restricted. The port has a strong long - term expectation but is restricted by high inventory. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with the MA2601 contract oscillating between 2240 - 2380 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamental situation of methanol 2601 is neutral. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory has increased, which is bearish. The 20 - day line is downward and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. The main position is net long with an increase in long positions, which is bullish [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Bullish factors include some device shutdowns, reduced methanol production in Iran, new production of acetic acid devices, and external procurement of methanol by northwest CTO plants [6]. - Bearish factors include the resumption of previously shut - down devices, concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the traditional off - season of formaldehyde, a significant decline in MTBE operation, profit - driven active sales of coal - based methanol, and inventory accumulation in some production area factories [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2270 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis is - 76. The prices of methanol in various regions and the futures closing price have declined to varying degrees. The price of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether remains stable, while the price of acetic acid has increased by 4% [5][8][9][31]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 132.98 million tons, a cumulative increase of 6.25 million tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 5.80 million tons to 94.95 million tons [5]. - **Profit**: The profits of coal - based and natural - gas - based methanol production processes have decreased, while the profit of the coke - oven gas - based process has increased. The production profits of formaldehyde and MTO are negative, while the production profits of dimethyl ether and acetic acid are positive [20][35][38][42][47]. - **Load**: The national weighted average methanol load is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The load of MTO devices has increased slightly [21][47]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic methanol plants**: Many plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East, and Southwest are under maintenance, with varying maintenance start and end times and different production capacity losses [58]. - **Foreign methanol plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have normal operations, and some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States also have different operating conditions [59]. - **Olefin plants**: Some olefin plants in the Northwest, East, and other regions are under maintenance or have normal operations, and some have planned future maintenance or production expansion [60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight oil prices rose and then fell. The market was observing potential additional sanctions from the EU on Russia, which supported oil prices. However, Trump's remarks after meeting with the UK Prime Minister to lower oil prices caused a significant drop in oil prices, and the oil price rebound was blocked again. The market will continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and long - term investors should hold and observe. The short - term price will operate within the range of 485 - 495, and long - term investors should hold long positions for observation [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Russia's August seaborne oil product exports increased by 8.9% month - on - month to 9440000 tons due to refinery maintenance completion and increased fuel production. The Kuwaiti oil minister expects oil demand to increase after the US interest rate cut, especially in Asia. US and Chinese flight numbers are decreasing after the summer travel season, and distillate inventories increased by 4 million barrels to 124.68 million barrels, raising concerns about demand in the world's largest oil - consuming country [3]. - **Basis**: On September 18, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.80 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.83 per barrel. The basis was $32.19 per barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory decreased by 3.42 million barrels in the week ending September 12, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.565 million barrels. EIA inventory decreased by 9.285 million barrels in the same period, far exceeding the expected decrease of 0.857 million barrels. Cushing area inventory decreased by 0.296 million barrels in the week ending September 12. As of September 18, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.401 million barrels [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 9, both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the number of long positions decreased [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Trump's Remarks**: Trump expressed disappointment with Putin and believed that lowering oil prices was the key to ending the conflict. He also hinted at increasing production from the North Sea to lower oil prices. He said it was not the right time to ask Putin to stop the war and mentioned his past efforts to promote a summit between Putin and Zelensky [5]. - **Global Oil Inventory**: Global oil inventories observed by the IEA increased for the sixth consecutive month. In July, global oil inventories increased by 26.5 million barrels, with a cumulative increase of 187 million barrels this year. However, global oil inventories were still 67 million barrels lower than the five - year average. OECD member countries' commercial oil inventories increased by 6.9 million barrels. In August, global oil inventories remained basically unchanged. It is expected that global inventories will increase at a rate of 2.5 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025 due to supply exceeding demand [5]. - **Hungary's Stance**: Hungarian officials oppose prematurely stopping the import of Russian fossil fuels without viable alternatives, stating that it would endanger national energy security. The EU plans to gradually stop importing Russian gas and oil by the end of 2027, which Hungary and Slovakia oppose [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: None mentioned. - **Negative Factors**: Institutional monthly reports have a weak outlook for the future, and the trade relationship between the US and other economies remains tense [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short - term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and the risk of trade tariff issues is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude decreased, with declines of 1.52%, 1.23%, 0.70%, and 0.56% respectively [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The spot prices of various types of crude oil, including UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, etc., all decreased, with declines ranging from 0.23% to 1.07% [9]. - **API Inventory**: The API inventory decreased by 3.42 million barrels in the week ending September 12 [10]. - **EIA Inventory**: The EIA inventory decreased by 9.285 million barrels in the week ending September 12 [14]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Fund Net - Long Position**: As of September 9, the net - long position of the WTI crude fund was 81844, a decrease of 20584 [17]. - **Brent Crude Fund Net - Long Position**: As of September 9, the net - long position of the Brent crude fund was 209578, a decrease of 41476 [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bearish, with supply pressure still high and demand recovery weak. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term, and the market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The price of asphalt 2511 is expected to oscillate between 3405 - 3449 [7][8][9] - Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support [11] - Bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 685,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. Refineries reduced production this week, and supply pressure may decrease next week [7] - **Demand Side**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 28.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the开工 rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工 rate of modified asphalt was 15.8893%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt was 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes was 33.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points. Overall, current demand is below the historical average [7] - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8] - **Basis**: On September 18, the spot price in Shandong was 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 93 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9] - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.225 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%; factory inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42%. Social and factory inventories continued to decline, while port inventory continued to increase [9] - **Market**: MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [9] - **Main Position**: The net position of the main players was short, and short positions decreased [9] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's asphalt market, including futures contract prices, inventory, production, and profit. For example, the price of the 01 - contract decreased by 0.47% compared to the previous value, and the social inventory decreased by 3.54% [16] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China from 2020 - 2025 [18][19] - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: Displays the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [21][22] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Illustrates the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 - 2025 [24][25] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Presents the historical trends of crude oil crack spreads for asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 - 2025 [27][28][29] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [31][33] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [34][35] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: Displays the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [36][37] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: Shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 - 2025 [39][40][41] - **Supply Side**: - **Shipment Volume**: Presents the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [42][43] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: Displays the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 [44][45] - **Production**: Shows the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [47][48] - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: Illustrates the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025 [51][53] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: Displays the historical local refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [54][55] - **开工 Rate**: Shows the historical weekly 开工 rate of asphalt from 2021 - 2025 [57][58] - **Maintenance Loss Estimate**: Presents the historical trend of maintenance loss estimates from 2018 - 2025 [59][60] - **Inventory**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Displays the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025 [62][64][65] - **Social and Factory Inventory**: Shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2025 [66][67] - **Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: Presents the historical trend of the factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025 [69][70] - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: Displays the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [72][73] - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: Shows the historical trend of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 - 2025 [75][76][77] - **Demand Side**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: Displays the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025 [78][79] - **Apparent Consumption**: Shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [81][82] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Related Data**: Presents the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 [84][85][86] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: Shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [88][89][91] - **Asphalt 开工 Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt 开工 Rate**: Displays the historical 开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [93][94] - **Asphalt 开工 Rate by Use**: Shows the historical 开工 rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [96][97] - **Downstream 开工 Situation**: Presents the historical 开工 rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [99][100][102] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import and export volume, and inventory data [104][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch with strong supply and weak demand in the lithium carbonate market is difficult to change, mainly due to capacity mismatch [8][9][13]. - The cost of externally - purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica shows different trends, with production at a loss; the cost of the salt - lake end is significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to oscillate in the range of 71,640 - 74,120 [9]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, production was 85,240 physical tons, and next - month's production is predicted to be 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and next - month's import is predicted to be 19,500 tons, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 96,217 tons, a 0.81% week - on - week increase; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,545 tons, a 0.09% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - Cost: The daily - based price of 6% concentrate CIF increased, but it is lower than the historical average [9]. - Expectations: The cost of externally - purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 75,430 yuan/ton, a 0.16% daily increase, with a production loss of 3,049 yuan/ton; the cost of externally - purchased lithium mica is 77,345 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, with a production loss of 6,951 yuan/ton; the production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost at the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - Fundamentals: Neutral. The basis on September 18 was 570 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The overall inventory was 138,512 tons, a 1.12% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The MA20 on the disk is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract futures closed below the MA20. The net position of the main traders is short, with a reduction in short positions [10]. -利多: Manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [11]. -利空: The supply at the ore and salt - lake ends remains high, with limited decline; the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - Futures closing prices: Most contracts showed a downward trend, with declines ranging from 0.94% to 1.46% [16]. - Basis: Most contracts showed an increase, with increases ranging from 91.74% to 240.00% [16]. - Registered warrants: 39,354 lots, a 0.31% increase [16]. - Upstream prices: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 0.12%, while other prices remained mostly unchanged [16]. - Positive electrode materials and lithium battery prices: Most prices showed a slight increase, with increases ranging from 0.13% to 0.37% [16]. 3.2.2 Supply - side Data - Lithium ore: The monthly production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica showed different trends, and the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased by 34.73%. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 21.77%, with a 27.58% decrease in imports from Chile [19]. - Lithium carbonate: The monthly production was 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase. The monthly net import volume decreased by 21.94%. The supply - demand balance was - 2,090 tons [19]. - Lithium hydroxide: The monthly production was 21,820 tons, a 13.31% decrease. The monthly net export volume decreased by 73.89% [19]. 3.2.3 Demand - side Data - Lithium battery: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased, and the monthly power battery loading volume increased by 11.81% [19]. - Ternary precursor: The monthly production was 78,440 tons, a 6.99% increase. The supply - demand balance was - 4,154 tons [19]. - Ternary material: The monthly production was 73,440 tons, a 9.55% increase [19]. - Lithium iron phosphate/phosphate: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 78,440 tons, a 8.55% increase [19]. - New energy vehicle: The production was 1,391,000 vehicles, a 11.91% increase, and the sales volume was 1.262 million vehicles, a 5.04% decrease [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PVC industry is bearish [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on PVC is bearish, with positive factors including supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits, while negative factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high inventory and slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [13] - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - The daily view is bearish, with positive factors such as supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages; negative factors include overall supply pressure rebound, high inventory levels, slow inventory consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [13] - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in scheduled production [7] 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream开工率 was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 38.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 33.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 74.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.809 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7] 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.40% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,439.25 yuan/ton, with the profit decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8] 3.2.4 Basis - On September 18, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,820 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 103 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9] 3.2.5 Inventory - Factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. Social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.2 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% [9] 3.2.6 Disk - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20, which is neutral [9] 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [9] 3.2.8 Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. Supply pressure has increased this week, and maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with an expected increase in scheduled production. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,894 - 4,953 [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: The US soybeans are oscillating downward. With the start of US soybean harvesting and the lack of results in Sino - US trade negotiations, the US soybeans are oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic bean meal is also oscillating downward, affected by the decline of US soybeans, with good recent demand as support and technical oscillatory consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans in September and the discount of spot prices are suppressing the upward height of the futures market. In the short term, it may return to an oscillatory pattern. The expected trading range for Bean Meal M2601 is between 2960 and 3020 [8]. - **Soybeans**: US soybeans are oscillating downward, waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic soybeans are bottoming out and rising, affected by US soybeans and technical oscillatory consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans are suppressing the futures market. In the short term, it is affected by the interaction of the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals. The expected trading range for Soybean A2511 is between 3840 and 3940 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. With relatively good recent weather in US soybean - producing areas, the US soybean market is oscillating upward under the relatively positive influence of US agricultural report data, and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth and harvesting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in August. The inventory of bean meal in oil mills entered a relatively high level in August. With the weather of US soybeans and Sino - US trade negotiations entering a critical period, affected by the relatively positive data of the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, bean meal is short - term oscillating strongly. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of bean meal demand supports the price expectation of bean meal. Coupled with the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, bean meal has returned to an oscillatory pattern within a range. - The inventory of bean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the variables of the Sino - US tariff war, bean meal is short - term oscillating strongly, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Bean Meal**: - **Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; relatively low current inventory of domestic oil mills; and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Negative Factors**: High total arrivals of imported soybeans in September; the end of Brazilian soybean harvesting and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybeans**: - **Positive Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [14]. - **Negative Factors**: The continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppressing the price expectation of beans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2910 (in East China), and the basis is - 83, indicating a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of bean meal in oil mills is 113.62 million tons, a 5.32% increase from last week's 107.88 million tons, and a 15.76% decrease compared with 134.88 million tons in the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price is 4140, and the basis is 236, indicating a premium to the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 731.7 million tons, a 5% increase from last week's 682.53 million tons, and a 6.17% increase compared with 689.18 million tons in the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract holders are decreasing, and funds are flowing out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract holders are increasing, and funds are flowing in [10].