Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2440 - 2500. It is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the rumor of tariff reduction. It has fallen after a rise and will return to a short - term shock pattern [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal fluctuates narrowly. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and there are still variables in Sino - Canadian trade consultations, causing the market to fall due to news [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good expectation [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final result is still variable [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 10th to 18th, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3004 - 3059 yuan, and the trading volume ranged from 4.9 - 39.05 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2560 - 2620 yuan, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.08 million tons on September 15th. The average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 434 - 459 yuan [13]. - From September 10th to 18th, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract ranged from 2460 - 2567 yuan, the far - month 2605 contract ranged from 2357 - 2420 yuan, and the rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian ranged from 2540 - 2620 yuan [15]. - From September 8th to 18th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 10403 to 9504 [16]. - The price of rapeseed meal futures fluctuated downwards, the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium increased slightly [17]. - The spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract fluctuated at a low level [19]. - The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [22]. - The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills remained low, and the inventory of rapeseed meal decreased slightly [24]. - The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills fluctuated slightly [26]. - The price of aquatic fish increased slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [33]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the unexpected decline in US unemployment benefit claims and the continued impact of the Fed's interest rate cut, both gold and silver prices have fallen. The Fed's meeting was less dovish than market expectations, leading to the realization of expectations and price drops. Gold and silver price sentiments have converged, and investors are advised to wait for buying opportunities after price corrections [4][6] - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall, and silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. However, tariff concerns have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [10][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US unemployment benefit claims decreased more than expected, and the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut continued, causing the gold price to fall. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields increased, the US dollar index rose by 0.34% to 97.37, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 1.07% to $3,678.2 per ounce. The gold basis was -1.7, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 900 kilograms to 54,126 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position decreased [4][5] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price also fell due to the above - mentioned factors. COMEX silver futures fell 0.12% to $42.1 per ounce. The silver basis was -48, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 9,833 kilograms to 1,221,428 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position decreased [6] 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: The Fed's meeting was less dovish than expected, leading to a price drop. The premium of Shanghai gold continued to converge to -9.2 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment was limited. The gold price sentiment converged, and investors should wait for buying opportunities after the price correction [4] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price sentiment converged, and the premium of Shanghai silver converged to about 290 yuan/kilogram. Investors should wait for buying opportunities after the price correction [6] 3.3 Today's Focus - 07:30: Japan's August CPI - Time TBD: Huawei Connect 2025 - Time TBD: Bank of Japan's interest rate decision - 14:30: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference on monetary policy - Time TBD: Eurogroup meeting - 20:30: Canada's July retail sales - Next day 02:30: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (2027 FOMC voter) participates in a fireside chat on the impact of AI on labor development and economic mobility - Next day 04:00: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman participates in a CNBC program - September 20 - 23, 2025: 2025 World Manufacturing Convention in Hefei, Anhui Province [15] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic for gold price trends is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and gold prices are difficult to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the gold price sentiment is high, still prone to rise and difficult to fall [10] - **Silver**: The logic for silver price trends is that it still mainly follows gold prices. However, tariff concerns have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. There are both positive and negative factors affecting silver prices, such as global turmoil, rising inflation, and tariff concerns on the positive side, and the end of interest rate cuts, improved economic expectations, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict on the negative side [13][14] 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The main net long position decreased. For example, on September 18, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 0.03% compared with the previous day, the short position decreased by 1.46%, and the net long position increased by 0.76% [31] - **Silver**: The main net long position decreased. For example, on September 18, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 1.06% compared with the previous day, the short position decreased by 1.83%, and the net long position increased by 0.94% [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai Nickel (2510), it is expected to oscillate around the 20 - day moving average. The long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but there are short - term bullish factors such as the potential impact of Indonesia's mine inspection and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand boost [2]. - For Stainless Steel (2511), it is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation. The market is neutral to bullish in the short term due to factors like firm nickel ore prices, rising nickel iron prices, and good inventory reduction during the "Golden September and Silver October" [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - On September 18, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was at 120,940, down 850 from the previous day; the London Nickel was at 15,335, down 110; the Stainless Steel main contract was at 12,875, down 60. Among the spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was at 122,700, down 100 [11]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of September 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 27,500 tons, with the futures inventory at 23,529 tons, an increase of 514 tons and 1,815 tons respectively. On September 18, LME nickel inventory was 228,450, a decrease of 18; Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipts were 25,866, a decrease of 275 [13][14]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On September 12, the inventory in Wuxi was 583,700 tons, in Foshan was 297,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,012,500 tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons month - on - month. The 300 - series inventory was 623,700 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons. On September 18, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 90,146, a decrease of 5,119 [18][19]. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - On September 18, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 29 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. High - nickel (8 - 12) was at 954.5 yuan per nickel point, up 0.5 [22]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost was 13,155, the scrap steel production cost was 13,562, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,859 [24]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 123,586 yuan per ton [27]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors include the demand boost expectation during the "Golden September and Silver October", anti - involution policies, and cost support at 120,000 [6]. - Bearish factors include the continuous significant year - on - year increase in domestic production with no new demand growth points, and the year - on - year decline in ternary battery loading [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-19燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：新加坡交易商表示，中国最新出口配额政策可能在短期内刺激需求走强，也是当前支撑因素之一。 此外，亚洲地区炼厂秋季集中检修也有望收紧区域供应并支撑基本面；亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构走强，含硫 0.5%船用燃油现货溢价连续第二个交易日上涨至近三周最高水平，主要受10月装船实物货品采购兴趣活跃的推 动；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油397.73美元/吨，基差为112元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为481.5美元/吨，基差为95元 /吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油9月17日当周库存为2315.9万桶 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The ISO predicts a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons [5]. - International raw sugar has fallen below 16 cents again, and domestic Zhengzhou sugar has oscillated downward, hitting a two - year low. With the approaching end of the domestic consumption peak season and a significant increase in imported sugar, the main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures generally oscillates weakly [6]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production, expected global supply surplus in the new season, the oscillation of foreign sugar prices around 16 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The ISO expects a 231,000 - ton global sugar supply deficit in the 25/26 season, a large reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 40.6 million tons, down 3.1% from the previous estimate. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, up 60,000 tons year - on - year; in July, the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, down 68,500 tons year - on - year. The situation is neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5960, and the basis is 486 (01 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is positive [7]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.16 million tons, which is positive [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is negative [7]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is negative [7]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand situation**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. The ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton deficit, Czarnikow predicts a 4.7 - million - ton surplus, and StoneX predicts a 1.21 - million - ton surplus [36]. - **Sugar production and sales in China**: As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, up 60,000 tons year - on - year; in July, the total import of syrup and premixes was 159,800 tons, down 68,500 tons year - on - year [5]. - **Price and cost**: The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff has shown different levels in different months from 2024 to 2025 [40]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is negative [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the cotton market and concludes that the short - term trend of cotton is oscillating weakly. The market is affected by multiple factors, including high inventory, poor export data, and upcoming new cotton listings, although there are some positive factors such as reduced tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No content is provided for this section. 3.2每日提示 - **Fundamentals**: The expected national cotton output is 7.22 million tons, with a new high in Xinjiang. Different organizations' forecasts for the 2025/26 season vary. Textile and clothing exports in August were 26.54 billion US dollars, a 5% year - on - year decrease. Cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a 51.6% year - on - year decrease, while棉纱 imports were 130,000 tons, an 18.18% year - on - year increase. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,319 yuan, with a basis of 1,554 yuan (for the 01 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The expected ending inventory in the 2025/26 season by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture in September is 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is one - third over, and the market is sluggish. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, increasing hedging pressure. The resistance level for the main 01 contract is around 14,000 yuan, and the short - term trend is oscillating weakly [4]. 3.3今日关注 No content is provided for this section. 3.4基本面数据 - **USDA Forecast**: The global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.622 million tons, and consumption is 25.872 million tons, with an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons [4]. - **ICAC Forecast**: The global cotton production in 2025/26 is 2.59 million tons, consumption is 2.56 million tons, ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, and the global trade volume is 970,000 tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [12]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Forecast**: In the 2025/26 season, production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4]. 3.5持仓数据 The main position is short - biased with an increasing net short position, and the main trend is unclear [4].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-19） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：因事故停减产煤矿仍处于停产状态 ，产量尚未恢复至正常水平，供应仍处于紧缩状态。近 日下游焦企对部分刚需煤种有适当补库现象，同时贸易商等中间环节有少量投机需求进场，炼焦煤需求 有所回升，煤矿近日出货顺畅，部分煤种成交见好，价格小幅上涨；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1220，基差16.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：焦企入炉煤有涨，利润收缩下对高价煤种采购意 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand of iron ore are loose, with steel mills' hot metal production starting to decrease and the monthly arrival level at ports decreasing. The port inventory has decreased, and there are plans to introduce crude steel production reduction policies, while the trade war has eased. The market is expected to be in a high - level shock pattern due to reduced domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish factor. The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, also bullish. However, the net position of the main iron ore contract is short and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing, supply arrival at ports this month is lower, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory is decreasing, there will be crude steel production reduction policies, and the trade war is easing, with a neutral outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures - equivalent price is 834, with a basis of 34; the spot price of Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port converted to the futures - equivalent price is 841, with a basis of 41. The spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 14,456.12 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, with a neutral outlook [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main iron ore contract is short and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: With reduced domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans, a high - level shock pattern is expected [2]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventory, import losses, and rising downstream steel prices with strong tolerance for high - priced raw materials [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Increased future shipments and weak terminal demand [6]. Other Aspects - The report also includes information on iron ore port spot prices [8], iron ore futures - spot basis [10], iron ore import profit [13], iron ore shipments [16], iron ore port and steel mill inventories [18], iron ore arrival and port clearance volumes [20], iron ore daily consumption [22], steel enterprise production conditions [25], and iron ore daily port trading volume and steel mills' daily hot metal production [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have eased, affecting the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. As it enters the production - increasing season, the supply of palm oil will increase [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8358, with a basis of 74, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8200 - 8600 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the production - increasing season [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9366, with a basis of 62, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have turned to short positions [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9600 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the production - increasing season [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10106, with a basis of 122, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Lido**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **Lido**: Palm oil tremor season (the specific meaning is not clear from the text) [5] - **Lido**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For LLDPE and PP, the market is expected to be volatile today. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to fluctuations in crude oil prices, providing cost support. The demand for agricultural films and downstream products such as pipes and woven plastics is gradually entering the peak season, but the year - on - year demand is still weak, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Crude oil prices are fluctuating. The demand for agricultural films is entering the peak season, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films has rebounded. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7220 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 32, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 551,000 tons (+6,000 tons), which is bearish [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract has turned long, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is volatile. With geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, the demand for agricultural films is in the peak season but still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season [5] - **Negative Factors**: Year - on - year demand is still weak [5] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic situation shows an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. Crude oil prices are fluctuating. The downstream demand for pipes, woven plastics, etc., is gradually entering the peak season. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6850 (0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 76, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.1%, which is bearish [7] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 551,000 tons (-25,000 tons), which is neutral [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract has increased, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is volatile. With geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, the demand for downstream products such as pipes and woven plastics has improved, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical turmoil provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season [8] - **Negative Factors**: Year - on - year demand is still weak [8] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [9] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The price of the spot delivery product is 7220 (-10), the price of the 01 contract is 7188 (-57), the basis is 32, the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons (+6,000 tons), and the social inventory is 547,000 tons (-14,000 tons) [10] - **PP**: The price of the spot delivery product is 6850 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6926 (-56), the basis is - 76, the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons (-25,000 tons), and the social inventory is 283,000 tons (-12,000 tons) [10] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend. The import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have also increased. The import dependence has decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17]