1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show oscillatory trends today. The fundamentals of both are generally bearish, with oversupply situations. However, the strengthening propane prices are driving the market rebound. The downstream demand for both is relatively weak, and there are new productions coming on - stream in the fourth quarter. But they also have cost support [4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, a 0.8 - point decline from the previous month, indicating a drop in manufacturing prosperity. OPEC+ decided to maintain the November production plan, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, improving coal - based profits. The Russia - Ukraine peace agreement has faced short - term setbacks, and oil prices are oscillating strongly. The demand for agricultural films is weak, and packaging film demand is mainly based on rigid needs, with some areas improving. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6680 (-60), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 6, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 497,000 tons (-4000), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is oscillating and rebounding. The fundamentals show oversupply, but the strengthening propane prices are driving the market. The industrial inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand has declined. It is expected that PE will show an oscillatory trend today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, while weak downstream demand year - on - year and new productions coming on - stream in the fourth quarter are bearish factors. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - situation shows a decline in manufacturing prosperity. In the supply - demand aspect, the demand for plastic weaving has entered the off - season and declined, while the demand for pipes is acceptable. The current PP delivery spot price is 6350 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 63, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.0%, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 565,000 tons (+19000), which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is oscillating and rebounding. The fundamentals show oversupply, and the strengthening propane prices are driving the market. The industrial inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand is average. It is expected that PP will show an oscillatory trend today [6] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, while weak downstream demand year - on - year and new productions coming on - stream in the fourth quarter are bearish factors. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 6680 (-60), and the 01 - contract price is 6674 (-102). The basis is 6. The warehouse receipt is 11,332 (unchanged) [8] - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 6350 (-10), and the 01 - contract price is 6287 (-72). The basis is 63. The warehouse receipt is 15,722 (-146) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a planned 20.5% growth in 2025E. The production, net import, and apparent consumption have also shown certain trends, and the import dependence has generally decreased [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been growing, with an expected 11.0% growth in 2025E. The production, net import, and apparent consumption have their own trends, and the import dependence has decreased [15]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年12月08日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 | 交割月份 | 前結構 | 今开盘 | 腰高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 培植参考价 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交额 | 持合手/变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商品名称:锌 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2512 | 22805 | 22850 | 23265 | 22830 | 23265 | 23075 | 460 | 270 | 3285 | 37904.45 | 5760 | -1240 | | 26 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年12月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国PCE数据巩固12月降息预期，金价震荡；美国三大股指小幅收涨， 欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨3.89个基 点报4.137%；美元指数跌0.08%报98.98，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报7.0691； COMEX黄金期货跌0.36%报4227.7美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货961.04，现货955.5，基差-5.54，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单91299千克，增加429千克；偏空 6、预期：今日关注中国11月进出口、欧元区12月投资 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率有小幅回落，因西部部分装置停车，综合库存有所回落，去库 形态较明显。需求端，农业需求、工业需求按需为主，复合肥开工率同比明显回升，冬储需求较 强，提振盘面情绪。出口内外价差大，国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交割品现货1710（+0），基本 面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差37，升贴水比例2.2%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存139.6万吨（-6.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡反弹，工业需求按需为主，农业需求近期回升，库存去库提 振盘面情绪，国内整体供过于求仍明显，预计UR今日走势震荡 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、库存去库 • 利空 • 1、国内供过于求 • 2、日产继续新高 尿素早报 2025-12-8 • 主要逻辑：国际价格，国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-05甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：后期甲醇市场或区域分化显著，整体呈现出南强北弱的格局。内地方面，随着久泰甲醇装置重启，后期烯 烃需求预期缩量，产区供需格局预期转弱，西北甲醇后续上涨动力受限。而销区来看，需求端增量逻辑明确：阳煤烯烃 计划12月初重启，联泓新建烯烃项目预计12月上旬开车；同时，港口与河南至鲁北套利空间关闭后，销区本地供应补充 受限，供需偏紧格局将进一步凸显，南方销区价格支撑力较强，有望持续强于北方产区。港口方面，12月进口船期比11 月有明显增量，鉴于后续密集的进口到港船期和临近交割月巨大的仓单和现货压力，暂时对本轮甲醇涨势持 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月5日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为9.1万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.2万吨，环比增长2.50%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为28.1万吨，处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1190元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.84%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.46万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为196元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为738.38元/吨，再生铝开工率为61.5%，环比增加1.49%,处 于高位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news. The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the range of 90,380 - 94,140 yuan/ton. The overall evaluation of the fundamentals, basis, and inventory is neutral, the disk is bullish, and the main position is bearish [10][11][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,865 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.19%, higher than the historical average. In November 2025, lithium carbonate production was 95,350 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 98,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.00%. The import volume in November was 25,500 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.88% [8][10]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 104,341 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.71%. The inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 19,361 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8][10]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 94,255 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.12%, and the production income is - 1,559 yuan/ton, showing a loss. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 92,638 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.26%, and the production income is - 2,247 yuan/ton, also showing a loss. The production cost at the recycling end is generally higher than that at the ore end, and the production income is negative, with low production scheduling enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation [9]. - Other Indicators: On December 4th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 300 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The smelter inventory was 24,324 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.81%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 41,984 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.51%, higher than the historical average. The other inventory was 49,660 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.72%, higher than the historical average. The overall inventory was 115,968 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.07%, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing [10][11]. - Factors Affecting the Market: Bullish factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Bearish factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [12][13]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price Changes: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased by 1.53% to 1,162 US dollars/ton. The price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) decreased by 1.76% to 2,515 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.37% to 94,000 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.38% to 91,550 yuan/ton [15]. - Supply - side Data: The weekly operating rate was 75.34%, unchanged from the previous period. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene was 94,255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13%. The monthly processing cost was 20,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44%. The monthly total production of lithium carbonate was 95,350 tons, an increase of 3.35% [20]. - Demand - side Data: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate was 76%, an increase of 5.56%. The monthly production was 348,500 tons, an increase of 5.14%. The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate lithium was 59.72%, an increase of 12.11%. The monthly production was 412,850 tons, an increase of 4.69% [20]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over the years. The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has shown different trends in different years [28]. - Supply and Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply and demand of domestic lithium ore have been in a state of dynamic balance, with different balance values in each month [31]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) and the total operating rate have shown fluctuations over time. The production of lithium carbonate has also changed accordingly [34]. - Supply and Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate have been balanced, with different balance values in each month. The demand, production, import, and export volumes have all changed [40]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization and Production: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over the years. The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticization) and the total production have also shown different trends [43]. - Supply and Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply and demand of lithium hydroxide have been balanced, with different balance values in each month. The demand, production, import, and export volumes have all changed [46]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Lithium Compounds: The cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, recycled materials, and the profit of lithium carbonate import, purification, and causticization have all shown different trends over time [49][50][54]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other sectors have changed, with the overall inventory showing a week - on - week decrease of 2.07% [11][56]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventories of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelting sectors have also changed [56]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price, Production, and Shipment: The price of batteries, the monthly production of battery cells, the monthly loading volume of power batteries, the monthly shipment volume of power cells, and the export volume of lithium batteries have all shown different trends over time [60]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, Cost, and Production: The price of ternary precursors, the cost and profit of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer), the processing fee, the capacity utilization rate, the capacity, and the monthly production have all changed [65]. - Supply and Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply and demand of ternary precursors have been balanced, with different balance values in each month. The demand, production, import, and export volumes have all changed [68]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price, Cost, and Production: The price of ternary materials, the cost - profit trend, the weekly operating rate, the capacity, the production, the processing fee, the export volume, the import volume, and the weekly inventory have all changed [71][73]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, Cost, and Production: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium, the production cost of iron phosphate, the cost - profit of iron phosphate lithium, the capacity, the monthly operating rate, the monthly production, and the weekly inventory have all changed [75][78][80]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Penetration: The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, dealer inventory warning index, and dealer inventory index of new energy vehicles have all changed over time [83][84][87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to increase in the short - term as refineries have recently increased production. The overall demand is lower than the historical average due to the off - season, and the inventory remains stable. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support has strengthened in the short - term. It is predicted that the asphalt 2602 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2926 - 2978 [7]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high and the demand recovery is weak [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 29.4823%, a month - on - month increase of 3.056 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment is 262100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74%, and the sample enterprises' output is 492000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.56%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprises' devices is 866000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.60%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.12 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 6.6%, the same as last month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 10.5658%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 33.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost Side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 496.91 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 1102.9986 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The processing loss of asphalt has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the support will strengthen in the short - term [7]. - **Basis**: On December 4th, the spot price in Shandong is 2940 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is - 23 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 745000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.74%. The in - factory inventory is 588000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.20%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 570000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.75%. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - factory inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing. It is neutral [7]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closes below the MA20. It is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: There are charts showing the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [18][20]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: There are charts showing the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - **Crude Oil Cracking Spread**: There are charts showing the cracking spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: There are charts showing the price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - There is a chart showing the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: There is a chart showing the asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: There is a chart showing the coking - asphalt profit spread trend from 2020 to 2025 [43]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: There is a chart showing the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: There is a chart showing the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [48]. - **Output**: There are charts showing the weekly and monthly output of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [51]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: There is a chart showing the Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output trend from 2018 to 2025 [56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: There is a chart showing the local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [58]. - **Operating Rate**: There is a chart showing the weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [61]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: There is a chart showing the estimated maintenance loss volume trend from 2018 to 2025 [64]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: There are charts showing the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [67][68]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: There are charts showing the social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [71]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: There is a chart showing the in - factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [74]. - **Import and Export Situation** - There are charts showing the asphalt export and import trends from 2019 to 2025 [77]. - There is a chart showing the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [80]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: There is a chart showing the petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: There is a chart showing the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [86]. - **Downstream Demand** - There are charts showing the highway construction transportation fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [89][90]. - There are charts showing the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, the domestic excavator sales volume, and the roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [93][95]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - There is a chart showing the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [98]. - There are charts showing the construction asphalt and modified asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025 [101]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: There are charts showing the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [104][106]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: There is a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output [109].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the supply of domestic edible oils is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and import inventory is stable. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that Malaysian palm oil export data this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, as it enters the production - reducing season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,394, with a basis of 140, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [2] - **Main positions**: The long positions of soybean oil's main contract are increasing. [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, but it will enter the production - increasing season, so the palm oil supply will increase. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,700, with a basis of 34, indicating a neutral situation. [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [3] - **Main positions**: The short positions of palm oil's main contract are decreasing. [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to the above two, entering the production - increasing season with an increase in palm oil supply. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,045, with a basis of 427, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main positions**: The long positions of rapeseed oil's main contract are increasing. [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800. [4] Recent利多and利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and there is the palm oil tremor season. [5] - **利空**: Edible oil prices are at a historically high level, domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high. [5] - **Main logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose. [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月5日 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.61%，环比增加.420个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为36.09%，环比减少0.20个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为38.8%，环比减少1.40个百 分点，高于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为73.93%，环比增加.860个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下 游糊树脂开工率为78.03%，环比持平.高于历史平均水平；船运费用看涨；国内PVC出口价格价格占优； 当前需求或持续低迷。 成本端来看，电石法利润为-880.71元/吨，亏损环比增加3.80%，低于历史平均水平；乙烯法利润为- 1、基本面: 偏空。 464.69元/吨，亏损环比减少9.00%，低于历史平均水平；双吨价差为1860.95元/吨，利润环比减少 2.00%，低于历史平均水平，排产或将承压。 2、基差: 12月04日，华东SG-5价为4510元/吨，01合约基差为10元/吨，现货升水期货。 中性。 3、库存: 厂内库存为32.264万吨，环比增加2.28%，电石法厂库为24.939万吨，环比增加3.57%， ...