1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 02 contract showed a downward trend. The opening price on Monday was 2,988 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 2,948 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.33%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, while the supply will increase, and the cost support will strengthen. The futures market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Supply**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 215.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the domestic sample asphalt production capacity utilization rate was 30.0815%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 28.06 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.06%. The sample enterprise production was 50.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.03%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 82.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.61%. It is expected that the supply pressure will increase next week [4]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 27.9%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 was 9.2238%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.34 percentage points and lower than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 was 29%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 was 34%, a month - on - month increase of 0.20 percentage points and lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [4]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 529.49 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 1,003.1686 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.05%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the short - term support will strengthen [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 74.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.74%. The in - plant inventory was 58.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.20%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 67 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.54%. The social inventory continued to decline, while the in - plant and port inventories continued to accumulate [6]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 02 contract showed a downward trend. It is expected that next week, it may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [105].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (12.1-12.5) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油继续震荡运行，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶60.14美元，周涨2.84%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶 63.86美元，周涨2.47%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至457.1元/桶，周涨0.71%。供应方面，机构调查显示，欧佩克上月原油产量保持稳定， 该组织在全球石油市场疲软之际维持谨慎战略，欧佩克在11月的平均日产量略高于2900万桶，与上月基本持平。地缘局势方面，俄罗斯原 油因不可抗力供应减少的预期利好油价，位于新罗西斯克的里海管道集团公司系泊设施29日遭无人艇袭击，乌克兰消息人 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, influenced by factors such as the US - China trade agreement, South American soybean planting weather, and domestic demand [10]. - The soybean market will also experience short - term range - bound fluctuations, affected by the execution of the US - China trade agreement, imported soybean arrivals, and domestic soybean production [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in the follow - up negotiation and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased from its high in November. The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remained high in November. After the initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation, the arrival of imported soybeans at the end of the year increased, but domestic soybean meal demand is in the off - season [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, suppressing the price of soybean meal in November. However, the initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation is positive for US soybeans, and the cost of imported soybeans will rise at the end of the year [13]. - The high inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal is affected by the initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation. In the short term, soybean meal is driven by US soybeans to oscillate strongly, and future trends await further guidance on US soybean production, South American soybean planting weather, and the follow - up of the US - China trade negotiation [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Likely Positive Factors**: The initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November; with the start of soybean planting in Brazil, South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. Soybeans - **Likely Positive Factors**: The rising cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports domestic soybean price expectations [16]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: After the initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation, China will increase its purchase of US soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of soybeans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the total consumption also increased steadily. The ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [22]. USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months - From April to November 2025, the planting area, yield per unit, and output of US soybeans showed certain fluctuations. The ending inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume also changed accordingly. The production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans also had some changes [23]. US Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress in 2024 - The sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting progress of US soybeans in 2024 showed different trends compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and the excellent - good rate also changed over time [24][25][26]. Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress - The planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from 2024/25 to 2025/26 showed different trends compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [27][28][29][31][32]. Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans generally showed an upward trend, and the total supply and total consumption also increased. The ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [38]. Domestic Imported Soybean Arrivals - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in November decreased from its high, with an overall year - on - year increase [39]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. 6. Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - **Futures**: US soybeans are oscillating around the 1100 - point mark in the short term, and soybean meal will remain range - bound in the short term. The M2605 contract will oscillate between 2700 and 2900 in the short term, and short - term trading within the range is recommended [17]. - **Options**: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [19]. Soybeans - **Futures**: The A2601 contract of soybeans will oscillate between 4000 and 4200. Short - term trading within the range is recommended [20]. - **Options**: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [20]. 7. Technical Analysis Soybeans - The soybean futures market is oscillating downward, affected by the trend of US soybeans and the relative stability of domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in the stage of oscillating consolidation, and the market is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations, awaiting new guidance [68]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures market is oscillating downward, affected by the decline of US soybeans, uncertainties in the execution of the US - China trade agreement, and weak domestic demand in the short term. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in the stage of technical adjustment, and the market is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations, awaiting new guidance [71]. 8. Next Week's Concerns - **Most Important**: The planting weather in Brazilian soybean - producing areas, the follow - up execution of the US - China trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [74]. - **Second - most Important**: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [75]. - **Less Important**: Macroeconomic factors, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Israel - Palestine conflict [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase. The domestic market has entered the off - season of supply and demand after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. However, the recent increase in swine fever has led to a short - term increase in slaughter, suppressing pig prices. On the demand side, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. But future demand for cured meat will support the price floor. The market this week may see an increase in both supply and demand, with pig prices expected to decline in the short term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. The expected price range for LH2603 is between 10,800 and 11,200 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Not provided in the document 3.2 Recent News - The domestic pig consumption market is affected by the off - season. The spread of swine fever has increased pig slaughter, leading to an increase in supply. Spot prices are weak in the short term and will maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, pork demand has weakened in the short term. Spot prices are oscillating weakly due to increased supply. The room for further price decline is limited, and prices may bottom out and rebound. The loss of domestic pig farming profits has recently expanded, reducing the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs in the short term. The decrease in both supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot markets. Pig spot prices are oscillating downward, and futures are weak in the short term and may maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The domestic pig supply has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices may be limited [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, and the year - on - year increase in domestic pig inventory [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - As of September 30, the pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. As of the end of September, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.66% [8]. - As of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% [26]. 3.5 Position Data - The net position of the main force is short, and the short position is decreasing [8]. 3.6 Pig Futures and Spot Prices - The report provides data on pig futures prices (near - month 2601 and main 2603), pig futures warehouse receipts, and spot prices of ternary hybrid pigs in different regions from November 28 to December 5, 2025 [12]. 3.7 Pig Futures Market - Basis and Spread Trends - The report shows the trends of pig futures - spot basis and the spreads between different contracts (1 - 3, 1 - 5, 1 - 9) [13]. 3.8 Pig Spot Market - Average Prices of Different Specifications of Pigs - It presents the trends of the average prices of commodity pigs,白条, and the average pork prices in 36 cities, as well as the price trends of ternary hybrid pigs in different regions and the spread trends between standard and fat pigs [15][17][19]. 3.9 Pig Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side - **Indicator Pig Prices**: It shows the trends of the average prices of binary sows, 7 - kg piglets, and culled sows [21]. - **Piglet Indicators**: It presents the feed - to - meat ratio and survival rate of piglets [23]. - **Rural Ministry of Agriculture Inventory**: It shows the monthly pig inventory and its month - on - month trend, as well as the monthly inventory of breeding sows [25]. - **Large - scale Farm Inventory**: It shows the inventory trends of commodity pigs of different weight ranges in large - scale farms and the weekly proportion trends of pigs below 90 kg and above 150 kg [27][29]. - **Pork Imports**: It shows the monthly pork import trends [31]. - **Fattening Costs**: It shows the fattening cost trends (taking 100 - 120 kg as an example) [34]. - **Feed Profit Expectations**: It shows the weekly profit expectations of pig feed [37]. - **Slaughter**: It shows the monthly pig slaughter volume trends and the weekly average slaughter weight trends [39]. - **Slaughter Profits**: It shows the weekly pig slaughter profit trends [41]. - **Profits**: It shows the weekly profit trends of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets [43]. - **Substitutes**: It shows the price spread trends between pigs and beef, mutton, and chicken [45]. 3.10 Pig Fundamental Analysis - Slaughter Side - **Prices**: It shows the trends of the average price of白条, the price spread between live pigs and白条, the slaughter settlement price, and the average price in 36 cities [48][50]. - **Slaughter Profits**: It shows the weekly slaughter processing profit trends [52]. - **Demand Slaughter**: It shows the daily pig slaughter volume and the opening rate, as well as the weekly fresh - sales rate and frozen - product inventory rate trends of slaughtering enterprises [54][56]. 3.11 Pig Fundamental Analysis - Demand Side - **Consumption Trends**: The annual pork consumption volume has increased month - on - month, indicating a recovery in pork consumption preference due to price advantages [58][60]. 3.12 Pig Fundamental Analysis - Pig - to - Grain Ratio - It shows the trends of the pig - to - grain ratio [61]. 3.13 Pig Fundamental Analysis - Reserve Purchase and Release - **Rising and Falling Trends**: It shows the historical rising and falling trends of pig prices [65]. - **Reserve Purchase Situation**: It shows the pig reserve purchase situation from 2019 to 2024 [67]. - **Reserve Release Situation**: It shows the pig reserve release situation from 2019 to 2024 [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of soybean meal futures will fluctuate in the range of 2800 - 2860, and the price of soybean futures will fluctuate in the range of 4040 - 4140. The short - term trend of both is affected by factors such as Chinese soybean procurement, South American planting weather, and Sino - US trade agreements [9][11]. - The soybean meal market is affected by both positive and negative factors, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound shock in the short term, waiting for further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13][15]. - The soybean market is also influenced by multiple factors, with the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand providing support, while the expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic production suppressing the upward space [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to fluctuate between 2800 - 2860. The domestic soybean meal shows a narrow - range shock. The demand improves in the short term, and the spot price discount restricts the upward space of the futures price. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern in the short term. The basis is at a premium, the inventory is increasing, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the short positions of the main force are decreasing, and the funds are flowing in [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate between 4040 - 4140. The domestic soybean shows a shock - down trend. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand support the price, while the increase in domestic production restricts the upward space. The basis is slightly at a premium, the inventory is increasing, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the short positions of the main force are decreasing, and the funds are flowing out [11]. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's procurement volume and US soybean weather. The domestic import of soybeans decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also decreased from the high level. The profit of domestic pig farming decreased, and the demand for soybean meal weakened in November. Overall, soybean meal is expected to maintain a range - bound shock in the short term, waiting for further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish for Soybean Meal - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean production areas [14]. Bearish for Soybean Meal - The total volume of imported soybeans in November remained at a relatively high level; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Bullish for Soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports the price [16]. Bearish for Soybeans - Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and China has increased its procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the new - season domestic soybeans are expected to increase in production [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - The global soybean supply - demand balance shows that the harvest area, output, and total supply have generally increased in recent years, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also shown an upward trend [33]. - The domestic soybean supply - demand balance shows that the harvest area, output, and import volume have changed over the years, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated [34]. - The import volume of soybeans decreased from the high level in November but increased year - on - year overall. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory returned to a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased to a low level, and the procurement demand decreased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from the high level, and the soybean meal output in September increased year - on - year [49][50][52]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the short positions of the main force decreased, and the funds flowed in. For soybeans, the short positions of the main force decreased, and the funds flowed out [9][11]. Other Information - The price of soybean meal futures fluctuated downwards, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot discount narrowed slightly. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market fluctuated slightly, and the price difference in the 2605 contract widened slightly [24][30]. - The cost of imported Brazilian soybeans fluctuated upwards following the US soybeans, and the profit on the futures market fluctuated slightly [56]. - The inventory of live pigs continued to rise, the inventory of sows was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The price of live pigs fluctuated slightly recently, and the price of piglets remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in the domestic market increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs increased slightly. The profit of domestic pig farming decreased slightly [58][60][64].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a state of shock and decline, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical shock adjustments. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. Due to the uncertainty of China - Canada trade negotiations, the market will maintain a range - bound shock in the short term, mainly affected by soybean meal [8]. - The short - term trading strategy for rapeseed meal futures is to be shock - biased strong. The RM2605 contract will fluctuate between 2300 and 2500 in the short term, and it is recommended to conduct short - term operations or wait and see. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term exports and the domestic supply expectation [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, and it depends on the further development of China - Canada trade relations [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal [11]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - Rapeseed supply and demand balance sheet: From 2014 to 2023, the harvest area, output, and total supply of rapeseed in China have shown certain fluctuations, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also varies year by year [15]. - Rapeseed meal supply and demand balance sheet: From 2014 to 2023, the production, total supply, and demand of rapeseed meal in China have changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also fluctuated [17]. - Imported rapeseed: There is no ship arrival forecast in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [18]. - Oil mills: The rapeseed crushing volume remains at zero, the rapeseed inventory is at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also low [20][22]. - Aquaculture: The prices of aquatic fish have slightly declined, while the prices of shrimps and shellfish have remained stable [30]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content 6. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal is driven by soybean meal to decline in shock. The China - Canada trade relationship is still uncertain, and the short - term market has returned to shock. The KDJ and MACD indicators are declining in shock, and the short - term market is in a technical shock adjustment stage. Whether it will continue to decline or rebound depends on the rapeseed import policy and soybean meal trends [41]. 7. Next Week's Concerns - Most important: The harvesting weather conditions in the US soybean - producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [43]. - Second most important: The domestic demand for soybean meal and aquaculture, and the inventory of rapeseed meal in domestic oil mills and downstream procurement [43]. - Third most important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance, and market sentiment fluctuates due to news. The lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 88,900 - 92,620. The supply is expected to increase next month, and demand is expected to strengthen with potential inventory reduction. The cost - dominated situation has weakened [8][9][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,939 tons, a 0.33% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In November 2025, production was 95,350 tons, and next - month's forecast is 98,210 tons, a 3.00% increase. November's import was 25,500 tons, and next - month's forecast is 27,000 tons, a 5.88% increase [8][9]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 103,681 tons, a 0.63% week - on - week decrease, and that of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,842 tons, a 2.68% week - on - week decrease. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost**: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 93,764 yuan/ton, a 0.52% day - on - day decrease, with a loss of 1,559 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 92,638 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day, with a loss of 2,982 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - **Market Factors**: Bullish factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Bearish factors are the high and limited - decline supply from the ore and salt - lake ends [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Fundamentals**: Neutral. - **Basis**: On December 5th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 1,090 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 113,602 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The smelter inventory was 20,767 tons, a 14.62% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 43,695 tons, a 4.08% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. Other inventory was 49,140 tons, a 1.04% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Neutral. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20. Neutral. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions. Bearish [10]. 3.3 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The futures closing prices and bases of different indicators showed various changes, with most prices decreasing and bases showing different degrees of increase or decrease. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 4.80% to 10,922 lots [16]. - **Upstream Prices**: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.69% to 1,154 US dollars/ton. The price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) remained unchanged at 2,515 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.80% to 93,250 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.82% to 90,800 yuan/ton [16]. - **Positive Material and Lithium Battery Prices**: The prices of most positive materials and lithium batteries showed small fluctuations, with some increasing slightly and some decreasing slightly [16]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Data Overview - **Supply - side**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 75.34%, unchanged. The monthly total production was 95,350 tons, a 3.35% increase. The production from lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling all increased to varying degrees [19]. - **Demand - side**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 348,500 tons, a 5.14% increase. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate lithium was 412,850 tons, a 4.69% increase. The monthly production of ternary precursor decreased in some types. The monthly total loading volume of power batteries was 84,100 GWh, a 10.66% increase [19].

证券代码：839979 碳酸锂期货周报 2025年12月01日-12月05日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 3 一．回顾与展望 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 本周05合约为下跌态势，周一开盘价为96980元/吨，周五收盘价为92160元/吨，周跌幅为4.90%。 供给端来看，本周碳酸锂产量为21939吨，高于历史同期平均水平，其中锂辉石产13484吨，环比增 加0.90%,高于历史同期平均水平，锂云母产3076吨，环比增加1.82%,高于历史同期平均水平，盐湖产 3090吨，环比减少4.48%,高于历史同期平均水平，回收产2289吨，环比增加1.96%,高于历史同期水平。 需求端来看，2025年11月碳酸锂需求量为133451实物吨，环比增加5.11%,预测下月需求量为130418 实 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，个别聚酯工厂补货，12月货在01-30~35附近有成交，价格商谈区间在4645~4700。今日主流现货基差在01-32。 中性 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 2、基差：现货4668，01合约基差-10，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.92天，环比增加0.14天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA供需格局变动不大，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，现货基差区间波动，期货盘面跟随成本端震荡运行，关注油 价走势及下游需求情况。 MEG 每日观点 MEG： 1 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，11月中国制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.2%，较上月回升0.2个百分点，仍处于收缩区间但显现边际改善；中性。 2、基差：现货91400，基差-1380，贴水期货； 偏空。 3、库存：12月5日铜库存减275至162550吨，上期所铜库存较上周减9025吨至88905吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高， 强势运行为主 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 每日观点 铜: 全球 ...