【生猪：二季度行情展望】 曲折下行，关注供应释放节奏 东证衍生品研究院 2025年3月 吴冰心 高级分析师 从业资格号：F03087442 投资咨询号：Z0019498 Tel: 021-63325888-4192 Email:bingxin.wu@orientfutures.com 核心观点 取决于后续出栏节奏，以及不同节奏下供应压力会否后移，下半年合约短暂以成本作为"支撑"。 数据来源：钢联农产品、WIND、东证衍生品研究院 吴冰心 高级分析师；从业资格号：F03087442；交易咨询号：Z0019498 ① 情绪面：春节后现货表现坚挺，跌幅不及预期，高基差下期限回归不能仅依赖于现货下跌 ② 资金面：移仓换月+反弹套保入场需要 ① 出栏节奏调整：集团整体出栏稍有滞后 ② 投机情绪波动：二育及散户扛价情绪反复，但边际收益趋弱，伴随天气转热，市场标肥价差有望继续走扩 ① 反弹or反转=>阶段性反弹为主，仍处于下行周期=>中长期以沽空方向看待 短期现价非理性式坚挺、应当在理性回落后继续曲折前行，但盘面估值或反复调整，伴随后续产量兑现与释放，年内价格 整体难见超预期上涨。价格底部支撑依然在投机端口。 Ø 期货 Ø ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The US consumer confidence index has dropped to its lowest level in four years, and the US economic outlook is further weakening. The US dollar is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term [14]. - The market is experiencing a volume - shrinking correction, and the performance of future earnings and macro - pressure will determine the upside potential [2]. - The bond market is in a volatile situation, and the attitude of regulatory authorities such as the central bank remains to be seen. There is a high probability of a bullish trend after the volatility [23]. - Palm oil is expected to remain weak due to increased production and sluggish exports [30]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term due to tariff expectations and potential supply contractions [49]. - The glass futures price is expected to be strong in the short term due to the release of spring demand and low supply [91]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Ray Dalio warns the US House Republicans about the danger of rising deficits and urges them to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP [12]. - The US, Russia, and Ukraine agree on a conditional cease - fire in the Black Sea [13]. - The US consumer confidence index in March dropped to 92.9, the lowest in four years. The US economic outlook is weakening, and the US dollar will maintain a volatile trend in the short term [14]. - Investment advice: The US dollar will remain volatile [15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Boao Forum for Asia predicts that China will maintain a growth rate of over 5% [16]. - The Ministry of Commerce will launch a pilot reform of automobile circulation and consumption [17]. - The market is in a volume - shrinking correction, and the performance of future earnings and macro - pressure will determine the upside potential. Market style switching has begun, and a defensive strategy is recommended. The large - cap blue - chip stock index futures IF and IH are resilient [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump is considering a "two - step" tariff plan [20]. - The US consumer confidence and expectation indices in March reached multi - year lows [21]. - Fed official Kugler supports keeping interest rates unchanged for some time. The tariff policy is uncertain, and the US stock market is expected to remain weak. Investors should control their positions carefully [22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 377.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on March 25, with a net injection of 104.6 billion yuan [23]. - The bond market is in a volatile situation. The attitude of regulatory authorities remains to be seen. There is a high probability of a bullish trend after the volatility. It is recommended to add positions during adjustments and consider a steepening curve strategy [23][24]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - On March 25, the auction of imported soybeans had a成交 rate of 17.3%. Analysts expect the US soybean inventory on March 1 to reach 1.901 billion bushels, the highest in three years, and the planting area in 2025 to be 83.872 million acres, a decrease from last year [25][26][27]. - Investment advice: The futures price will be volatile. Pay attention to the reports on March 31 and the changes in US tariff policies [28]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production from March 1 - 20 increased by 9.48% month - on - month, and exports from March 1 - 25 decreased by 8.08% month - on - month [29][30]. - Palm oil prices dropped due to increased selling willingness and expected inventory increases. It is expected to remain weak in the short term, and short positions can be considered [30][31]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch remained stable. Supply - demand changes are small, and the price difference between regions may weaken [32]. - Investment advice: The price difference between North China and Northeast China may weaken, and the futures price difference may be under pressure [33]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Central reserve corn has a net rotation out. The spot price of corn in North China has declined, and the price difference between regions may change. The wheat support price is expected to provide a bottom - line support for corn prices [34]. - Investment advice: The 07 contract of corn can be considered for long - term bullish positions [35]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil strengthens fire prevention before the 2025/26 sugar - cane season. Brazil's sugar exports in March decreased by 25.28% year - on - year [36][37]. - Thailand's sugar exports in February increased by 58% year - on - year. Guangxi is about to end the sugar - cane season, and the sugar production is expected to increase [38][39]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be volatile at a high level. Pay attention to the start of the Brazilian sugar - cane season and weather changes [40]. 2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Xinzhou is weakly stable. The spot price of coking coal has stabilized, but the futures market is affected by overall demand and warehouse receipts and is expected to be volatile [41][42]. - Investment advice: The futures market will be volatile [42]. 2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The state - owned land use right transfer income from January - February decreased by 15.7% year - on - year [43]. - 14 provinces plan to invest about 7.9 trillion yuan in key projects in 2025. Steel prices are expected to have limited upside potential in the short term [44]. - Investment advice: Treat the steel price rebound with caution and pay attention to the pressure near the normal - period electric furnace cost [45]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Glencore closes a copper smelter in Chile due to furnace problems [45]. - China's refined copper exports in February increased by 91% month - on - month. The US tariff expectation supports copper prices, and short - term prices are expected to rise [46][49]. - Investment advice: Adopt a long - position strategy for copper futures in the short term and turn to a wait - and - see attitude for the Shanghai copper positive - spread strategy [49]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - CNPC conducts a centralized procurement of 9.6GW of photovoltaic modules in 2025 [50]. - The polysilicon market is expected to start de - stocking in April. The price of N - type dense re - feedstock is expected to rise [50]. - Investment advice: Consider long - positions for PS2506 and hold the PS2506 - PS2511 positive - spread [52]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Yongchang Silicon's 110 - kV substation is successfully powered on, providing power for a 100,000 - ton/year project [53]. - There are rumors of production cuts in the industrial silicon industry. The futures price is expected to trade between 9,500 - 10,500 yuan/ton [54]. - Investment advice: Look for trading opportunities in the range and consider the Si2511 - Si2512 reverse - spread [54]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Indonesian nickel ore price index shows a stable trend [55]. - The price of nickel is expected to be strong due to cost support and supply shortages. Consider buying on dips and band - trading based on import profit and loss [56][57]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The global lead market had a surplus of 1,000 tons in January 2025 [58]. - The sales of electric bicycles in Wenzhou increased by about 30% year - on - year. The lead market is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand. Consider long - positions in the medium - term [61]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term and consider long - positions in the medium - term [61]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The global zinc market had a shortage of 10,000 tons in January 2025 [62]. - A zinc smelter in Sichuan plans to conduct maintenance. Zinc prices are expected to be under pressure in April [63]. - Investment advice: Consider short - positions on rallies in the medium - term and wait and see for spreads [64]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Rio Tinto's CEO predicts that the global lithium demand may increase to 4 - 5 million tons per year [65]. - Lithium prices are falling due to weakening ore prices. Pay attention to the delivery game [65][66]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The preparation for expanding the national carbon market is completed. The carbon price may decline due to potential supply pressure [68]. - Investment advice: The CEA is expected to be weak in the short term [69]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price declined on March 25. Some PX devices are planned for maintenance. Consider short - term long - positions but beware of crude oil fluctuations [70][71]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price increased slightly. The supply - demand situation has improved marginally. The price is expected to rebound but with limited upside [72][74]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong declined on March 25. The futures price is expected to have limited downside [75][76]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable. The pulp market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to US tariff policies [77][78]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder price had small fluctuations. The futures price is expected to have limited rebound height [79]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The reserve potash fertilizer auction on March 25 had a high成交 rate. The urea futures price may be strong in the short term but beware of demand front - loading [80][82]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to promote the listing of pure benzene futures and options [83]. - The styrene price declined due to weakening crude oil and pure benzene prices. Wait and see until the pure benzene price stabilizes [84][85]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips was mostly stable. The short - term inventory is decreasing, but supply pressure may return after device restarts [86][89]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in North China was stable. The supply is expected to increase, and the futures price is under pressure. Consider short - positions on rallies [90]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market was stable on March 25. The futures price is expected to be strong in the short term due to demand release and low supply [91].

重点集装箱港口及关键枢纽监测20250325 东证衍生品研究院 黑色与航运部 兰淅 从业资格号：F03086543 投资咨询号：Z0016590 数据点评 港 口 地 区 最新一期 月环比 年同比 月平均 去年同期 单 位 洋山 中国 32.5 0.9 5.8 31.6 26.7 小时 宁波 中国 39.2 3.7 -5.1 35.4 44.2 小时 新加坡 东南亚 30.6 -2.1 -0.6 32.6 31.2 小时 巴生 东南亚 65.8 25.8 10.6 40.0 55.2 小时 釜山 韩国 30.9 -1.3 -1.2 32.2 32.1 小时 鹿特丹 西北欧 61.2 -8.0 7.5 69.2 53.7 小时 汉堡 西北欧 70.7 4.0 23.5 66.7 47.3 小时 费利克斯托 西北欧 67.8 11.3 33.5 56.6 34.3 小时 瓦伦西亚 地中海 46.0 -2.3 -0.9 48.3 46.9 小时 比雷埃夫斯 地中海 42.4 -26.1 -9.0 68.6 51.5 小时 长滩 美西 102.8 -15.1 16.5 117.9 86.3 小时 洛杉矶 美西 103 ...

★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/3/21 当周）： 周度报告——光伏玻璃 行业开始新一轮议价，光伏玻璃供应继续回升 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 3 月 25 日 截至 3 月 21 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 14 元/平米，环比上周持平；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 21 元/ 平米，亦环比上周持平。 上周光伏玻璃供给端持续上行，仍有新窑炉投产。此外上周有老 旧窑炉退出，预计是为企业内新窑炉投产做准备，行业新旧产能 更替中。 能 源 上周市场走货节奏明显加快，主要原因是市场再度释放涨价信 息，加工厂及下游组件厂加快拿货节奏。预计本周组件订单向好 将继续带动光伏玻璃消费。 化 工 上周光伏玻璃市场走货节奏明显加快，组件厂家玻璃备库较少加 上涨价预期导致光伏玻璃库存继续下行，预计本周行业库存将延 续下行态势。 ★ 供需分析： 当前光伏玻璃阶段性涨价基本落地，但仍有部分企业先拿货月底 再议价，预计本周行业将开始新一轮月度议价。 ★ 风险提示： 组件厂家上调开工率。 | 曹璐 | 资深分析师(化工) | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F3 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美国特朗普暗示对等关税或有减免 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-03-25 综 宏观策略（股指期货） 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普表示即将出台汽车关税 暗示对等关税可能有减免 特朗普对于对等关税减免的表述使得市场担忧有所降低，市场 风险偏好继续回升，美元指数走强。 宏观策略（国债期货） MLF 将采用固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展 MLF 的政策利率属性完全被剥离，由短及长的利率传导体系进 一步确立，长端品种的定价进一步交给市场。 合 财政部：积极财政从五方面发力 晨 报 3 月 25 日市场 V 型反转，但仍旧缩量。市场此时才算是真正进 入重估的范畴，对于前期高估的板块，必然有重新的修正。后 续业绩和宏观压力的演绎情况决定上涨空间。 农产品（豆粕） 巴西大豆收获完成 76.4% 由于干旱影响南里奥格兰德，机构下调巴西大豆产量预估 230 万吨。美豆出口检验报告符合预期，市场继续关注美国关税政 策变化。国内供需双弱，上周油厂豆粕库存再度上升。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 中钢协：建议切实关闭新增产能入口 钢价延续反弹，一方面价格在华东谷段电炉成本附近 ...

周度报告-外汇期货 ★风险提示 美联储表态超预期鹰派，当前交易逻辑将发生转变。 | [T走ab势le_评Ra级nk：] 美元：震荡 | 元涛 | 宏观策略首席分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： 2025 年 3 月 9 日 | 从业资格号： [Table_Analyser] | F0286099 | | [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 | 投资咨询号： | Z0012850 | | 市场风险偏好降温，股市走势分化，债券收益率多数上行，美 | Tel: | 8621-63325888-3908 | | 债收益率回升至 4.3%。美元指数大跌 3.51%至 103.6，非美货币 | Email: | tao.yuan@orientfutures.com | | 多 数 升 值 ， 离 岸 人 民 币 涨 0.66% ， 欧 元 涨 4.22% ， 英 镑 涨 2.65%，日元涨 1.72%，瑞郎涨 2.57%，大宗商品货币多数升值， | 徐颖 FRM | 宏观策略首席分析师 | | x 新西兰元涨 2%，兰特涨超 2%，澳元、泰铢、卢比、比索涨超 | 从业资格 | ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the dollar as "volatile" [6] Core Insights - Market risk appetite continues to decline, with most global stock markets experiencing downturns and bond yields rising, particularly US Treasury yields which have slightly increased to 4.31% [9][11] - The US dollar index fell by 0.12% to 103.7, while non-US currencies showed mixed performance [9][22] - The latest US CPI data for February was below expectations, with year-on-year growth dropping from 3% to 2.8% and core CPI decreasing from 3.3% to 3.1% [2][29] - Inflation expectations have risen, with the one-year inflation expectation jumping from 4.3% to 4.9% and the five-to-ten-year expectation increasing from 3.5% to 3.9% [2][11] Summary by Sections Global Market Overview - The market is characterized by a continued decline in risk appetite, with most stock markets down and bond yields up, particularly US Treasury yields which rose to 4.31% [9][11] - The dollar index decreased by 0.12% to 103.7, while gold prices increased by 2.6% to 2984 USD/oz [9][25] Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance - The US stock market has seen a four-week decline, influenced by tariff policies and recession expectations, with the S&P 500 dropping by 2.27% [11] - The February CPI data indicates a cooling inflation trend, with core inflation pressures easing, although food prices are rising [2][29] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with inflation risks increasing [2][11] Hotspot Tracking - The February CPI data from the US was notably below expectations, indicating a temporary easing of inflation concerns [3][29]

周度报告——期权保值 商品期权周报：部分品种显著升波，关注 卖权机会 报告日期： 2025 年 3 月 15 日 ★ 商品期权市场活跃度 ★ 商品期权主要数据点评 标的涨跌情况：本周商品期权标的涨跌不一，有色、农产品 板块涨多跌少。周度涨幅较高的品种有沪锡（+9.47%）、菜 粕（+9.08%）；跌幅较高的品种有烧碱（-3.92%）、氧化铝 （-3.43%）、鸡蛋（-3.20%）。 市场波动情况：本周商品期权市场大部分品种隐波维持相对 低位，38 个品种当前隐波位于历史 50%分位以下，买权相对 较为便宜，可关注单边买入看涨或看跌期权的 Delta 策略。 当前隐波历史分位较高的品种为沪锡（100%）、苹果 （82.17%），市场对于标的价格波动的预期相对较为强烈， 警惕单边风险，可以关注后续做空波动率的机会。 期权市场情绪：当前菜油、鸡蛋和聚丙烯的成交量 PCR 处于 历史高位，市场短期看跌情绪较为强烈，注意标的价格回调 风险；碳酸锂、镍和氧化铝的成交量 PCR 处于历史低位，短 期看涨情绪较为集中。菜粕、锡、LPG 持仓量 PCR 位于历史 高位，市场看跌情绪已积累至较高水平；而 PTA、锌、氧化 铝持仓 ...

热点报告——商品期权 沪锡期权盘中飙升 3200 倍点评 报告日期： 2025 年 3 月 14 日 ★ 沪锡期权盘中飙升 3200 倍 2025 年 3 月 13 日，产能占全球供应 6%的 Bisie South 矿区因 武装冲突全面停产。此前缅甸禁矿令已导致中国进口锡矿同 比下滑 17.79%，此次事件进一步加剧原料短缺恐慌。 13 日夜盘，沪锡主力 SN2504 一路震荡走高，最高涨幅达 9.50%以上，14 日开盘后迅速涨停封板。与此同时沪锡 SN2504 看涨期权部分期权费从 2 元飙升至最高约 6478 元，涨幅超 3200 倍，创造了中国商品期权市场历史上最高单日涨幅。 ★ 期权为何能够创造千倍收益？ 此次沪锡期权市场出现罕见行情，部分合约实现超 3000 倍涨 幅，这一极端收益是多重风险因子共振的结果。 1）方向性收益：在期货价格震荡上行的过程中，Delta 和 Gamma 也同时上升，带来了较高的方向性收益。2）波动率 收益：14 日盘中主力平值隐波飙升至 38%左右，单日增幅达 137%。买权在升波的过程中获取了高额波动率收益。3）临 近到期，初始时间价值低：4）标的期货涨停缺乏流动性， ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美国 2 月 CPI 低于预期，欧盟将对美国商品 征收反制性关税 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-03-13 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国 2 月份通胀数据低于预期 美国 2 月 CPI 低于预期，核心 CPI 环比增速走低，这使得市场 对于通胀的担忧暂时放缓，市场风险偏好回升。 宏观策略（国债期货） 央行开展了 1754 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 综 降息预期回吐的行情处于尾声，后续驱动市场走势的逻辑应逐 渐转为央行态度的变化。做多债券虽然略偏左，但赔率已经逐 渐合适。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 国常会讨论 2025 年重点工作分工方案 报 股票市场冲高回落，港股回调幅度大于 A 股，市场震荡调整逐 渐开始。近期美股回调对全球资金再平衡也形成一定支撑，后 续若美股反弹，全球资金或将减配中国权益资产。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 3 月 USDA 报告豆油部分解读 美豆油生物燃料需求下调，豆油弱势整理。 有色金属（铜） 铜陵有色冶炼厂采取检修应对矿紧困境 基本面因素对铜价支撑增强，减产预期提升市场多头信心，预 计铜价震荡偏强运行为主，策略上短期偏多头思维操作 ...