Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a quarterly report on apples by Green大华 Futures [1] - The report is dated September 30, 2025 [4] Group 2: Price Information - In September, apple futures prices were pulled by low demand and new - season production expectations, showing a volatile and slightly upward trend [7] - Current apple spot prices vary by variety and region. For example, inventory paper - bagged late Fuji 80 and above is 3.00 - 4.00 yuan/jin (piece - red, first and second - grade), and in Shaanxi, paper - bagged Gala 70 starting semi - commodity is about 4.80 yuan/jin (high large - fruit ratio) [11] - The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits is in a seasonal upward stage, while the wholesale price of Fuji apples has a slight decline [20][21] Group 3: Inventory Situation - As of September 26, 2025, the total remaining cold - storage apples in the country is 12.18 tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. Western regions are in the large - scale bag - removing stage, and Shandong is in a trading gap period [14] Group 4: Downstream Market - Recently, the total number of apple trucks arriving at Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao is average, with 43 trucks this week. The number of trucks arriving at Guangdong Chalong Market in the morning has slightly increased compared to last week, with an average of 15.60 trucks per day. Apples are still affected by the sales of seasonal fruits [17] Group 5: Market Structure and Outlook - The current apple market shows a structural differentiation. The double - festival stocking is ending. New - harvested Fuji in the west is listed, with high - quality fruit prices high, while the eastern inventory old Fuji has weak prices. The market expects the opening price of new Fuji to be stronger in the west and weaker in the east [25] - The apple futures market continues the strong and volatile trend. Due to multiple adverse factors during the growth cycle, the high - quality fruit rate is low. Before the quality of late - maturing Fuji is clear, the futures market will remain in a strong and volatile pattern [25] Group 6: Factors to Watch - Key factors to watch include the impact of extreme climate during the new - fruit growth period and the year - on - year change in the number of new - fruit baggings [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy is on an upward trend, with the US economy showing strong consumption and manufacturing reshoring, while China is shifting towards AI, and large - scale AI investments are expected to drive up demand for certain assets [40][41][42] - The large - scale investment in computing power is expected to push up the price of silver, and the demand for copper is also likely to increase due to large - scale power construction [49][82][85] - The Fed's new round of interest rate cuts will lead international funds to flow from the US and Europe to emerging markets represented by China, and the stock markets in emerging markets, especially China, are favored by global institutional investors [48][51][54] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs US Economic Indicators - In September, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.0, indicating continued expansion, and the service business activity index also showed a positive trend [6][7] - In August, the US import value from China increased by nearly 40% month - on - month after the US imposed reciprocal tariffs, and the competitiveness of Chinese goods has enhanced [10] - In August, the total retail and food sales in the US increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations, and the wholesale sales reached a record high with a 6.2% year - on - year increase, showing strong consumption [13][16] - In August, the US capital goods import value was still high at $91.9 billion, with a 10.5% year - on - year growth, indicating the acceleration of manufacturing reshoring and "re - industrialization" [19] - In August, the US manufacturing backlog orders were at a record high, with a 7.1% year - on - year increase, and the service export value reached a record high of $101 billion [22][25] - In August, the US CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations [28] Chinese Economic Indicators - In September, China's Caixin PMI production index was 51.9%, indicating an accelerated expansion of production, and the purchase price of raw materials continued to rise [31] - China has issued an "AI +" action plan, and the economy is comprehensively shifting towards AI [42] Eurozone Economic Indicators - In September, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI slightly contracted, while the service PMI accelerated its expansion [34] Indian Economic Indicators - In August, India's manufacturing and service PMIs reached new highs, and both sectors have been expanding for more than three years [36] Japanese Economic Indicators - Japan's 10 - year government bond yield reached a new high [38] AI Investment and Market Impact - Morgan Stanley predicts that global AI data center and chip investment will reach $2.9 trillion by 2028 [43][56][58] - OpenAI plans to invest about $400 billion to build five new data centers in the US, with a planned capacity of 250GW by 2033, and the power investment may be as high as $12.5 trillion [44][58][59] - Alibaba is actively promoting 380 billion yuan of AI infrastructure construction and plans to increase investment, and Morgan Stanley expects Alibaba Cloud to add more than 3GW of data center capacity annually from 2026 - 2032 [45][57] Strategy Recommendations - **Asset Allocation** - With the Fed's interest rate cuts, international funds will flow to emerging markets, and the Hang Seng Tech Index is expected to rise. Semiconductor equipment ETFs will remain prosperous due to the high demand for computing power. It is recommended to hold long positions in the CSI 300 index futures [48] - Gold prices are expected to rise as the US moves towards stagflation. Silver prices will be pushed up by data center investment, and copper demand will increase due to power construction. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures are expected to fall [49][80][88] - **Stock Market Outlook** - The CSI 300, CSI 500, and科创50 indexes are expected to perform well in the fourth quarter, and the Hang Seng Tech ETF is also expected to rise [68][71][74] - **Currency Outlook** - The offshore RMB is expected to appreciate under the pattern of trade surplus and capital inflow [91]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the market is expected to rise. With the style shift, long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 Index. The large - financial sector in the CSI 300 has fully corrected, and the technology track remains highly prosperous. [10][11] - The Chinese stock market has become the preferred choice for global institutional investors. The optimism of investors has increased, and international capital is actively increasing its positions in the Chinese technology sector. [10][23][25] - Consumption will become the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter against the backdrop of expected decline in exports and investment slowdown. [45] - The AI - related capital expenditure is increasing significantly, and the semiconductor equipment industry chain is expected to maintain high prosperity. [80][81][91] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Outlook - In September, the Shanghai Composite Index consolidated horizontally and gathered momentum before the 3900 - point mark. After the long - holiday, it is expected to cross 3900 points and head towards 4000 points. [6][94] - The CSI 300 Index has reached a new high and is expected to be the main force for upward movement in the fourth quarter. The CSI 500 Index, representing the mid - cap growth style, is expected to continue to strengthen. The STAR 50 Index remains optimistic due to the high - growth AI and semiconductor sectors. [97][100][103] Market Fundamentals - In August, the scale of stock - type funds reached 5.55 trillion yuan, an increase of over 630 billion yuan, and the scale of hybrid funds increased by over 330 billion yuan. [10] - The M1 year - on - year growth rate soared to 6.0% in August, indicating accelerated currency activation, which is beneficial for the stock market to rise. [12] - In August, the new RMB deposits of non - bank financial institutions increased by 1.18 trillion yuan, and the savings of the household sector are accelerating the transfer to the stock market. [15] - On September 17, the margin trading balance of the two markets exceeded 2.3 trillion yuan, and the margin trading funds increased their positions rapidly. In August, 2.56 million new accounts were opened. [18] - Bond funds have suffered large - scale redemptions, and funds from the bond market are continuously flowing into the stock market. [20] Global Investor Sentiment - According to the HSBC Emerging Markets Survey, investors' optimism has increased, and China has become the preferred market for stock investment. The 100 surveyed institutions manage a total of $423 billion in emerging - market assets. [10][23][27] Macroeconomic Indicators - In August, the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and the CPI of consumer goods increased by 0.1% month - on - month, helping to get out of deflation. [28] - In September, the Caixin PMI production index was 51.9%, indicating accelerated production expansion, and the purchase price of raw materials continued to rise. [31] - In August, China's export value was $321.8 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.4%, showing export resilience. [34] - In August, the fixed - asset investment in the manufacturing industry was 2.62 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 0.3%, indicating investment slowdown. [37] - In August, the infrastructure investment was 1.90 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 6.4%, indicating infrastructure slowdown and reflecting the local fiscal dilemma. [40] - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.96 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.4%. [45] - In August, the total electricity consumption of the whole society exceeded 1 trillion kWh again, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.2%. [48] Industrial Production - In August, the output of industrial robots was 63,700 units, with a year - on - year growth rate of 32.9%. [51] - In August, the output of integrated circuits was 42.5 billion pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 13.9%. [54] - In August, the export volume of passenger cars reached 669,000 units, and the export volume of electric vehicles reached 358,000 units, both hitting new highs. [57] International Market - After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs on various countries, the competitiveness of Chinese goods has increased, and the US imports from China in August increased by nearly 40% month - on - month. [60] - In August, the total retail and food sales in the US increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations, indicating strong US consumption. [65] - In August, the sales of US wholesalers reached $711.3 billion, setting a historical record, with a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, indicating strong US consumption. [68] - In August, the US capital goods import value was $91.9 billion, still at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 10.5%, indicating that the US manufacturing industry is accelerating its return and the "re - industrialization" is speeding up. [71] - In August, the unfinished orders of the US manufacturing industry were at a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 7.1%, indicating high prosperity. [74] Strategy Recommendations - Stock index futures directional trading: In the fourth quarter, the market is expected to rise. With the style shift, long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 Index. [11] - Stock index option trading: Buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on stock index options. [11] AI and Semiconductor - Alibaba plans to make additional investments on the basis of the 380 billion yuan investment in the next three years to strengthen computing power infrastructure. Morgan Stanley expects that Alibaba Cloud will add more than 3 GW of data center capacity annually from 2026 to 2032. [79][80] - OpenAI plans to build a data center with a capacity of over 2 GW by the end of 2025 and reach 250 GW by 2033, which requires huge capital investment and activation of the global industrial foundation. [82][84] - Huawei's Ascend chips are making rapid progress. The Matrix 386 AI server cluster based on Ascend 910C in 2025 has surpassed NVIDIA's mainstream products, and future product plans aim to far exceed NVIDIA in computing power. [85] - Huawei is developing and self - researching high - bandwidth memory (HBM), aiming to achieve full autonomy and control from the AI computing core to high - end storage chips. [88][89] - The soaring demand for computing power is expected to keep the semiconductor equipment industrial chain highly prosperous. [91]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas: The global cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. With the OECD lowering the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.9%, trade frictions and inflation continue to suppress cotton consumption. The U.S. cotton harvest lags behind previous years, while Brazil's harvest is nearly complete and Pakistan's new - cotton listing has increased significantly. Given the macro - economic downturn and short - term supply increase, international cotton prices may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [40]. - Domestic: The domestic cotton market is approaching a seasonal supply peak, and prices face significant downward pressure around the National Day. New cotton picking has started, but farmers are waiting and watching. The futures market has led to a decline in expected purchase prices. With the expected concentrated listing and weak consumption, domestic cotton prices may face further correction pressure [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price and Spread - The weekly average price of international cotton spot increased, and the spread between domestic and international cotton prices continued to narrow. The weekly average price of China's CC Index3128B was 15,292 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The spread between the Cotlook A 1% tariff converted into RMB and the CC Index3128B narrowed by 132 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [7]. 3.2 Global Cotton Supply and Demand (USDA) - **Global**: The expected total global cotton production in the current year is 25.622 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 230,000 tons (0.9%); consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, an increase of 184,000 tons (0.7%); imports are 9.516 million tons, an increase of 27,000 tons (0.3%); exports are 9.515 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons (0.3%); the global ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, a decrease of 168,000 tons (1.0%) [9]. - **US**: In 2025/26, the U.S. cotton planting area is 56.427 million mu, an increase of 115,000 mu; the harvested area is 44.729 million mu, an increase of 79,000 mu; the abandonment rate is 20.7%, with little change. The yield per unit is expected to be 64.3 kg/mu, a slight decrease; the production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons. Consumption is expected to be 370,000 tons, and exports are expected to be 2.613 million tons, with little change. The ending inventory remains at 784,000 tons [12]. - **China**: The expected production is 7.076 million tons, an increase of 218,000 tons (3.2%); consumption is expected to be 8.382 million tons, an increase of 217,000 tons (2.7%); imports are expected to be 1.132 million tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons (1.9%). Considering the decrease in initial supply, the ending inventory decreases by 229,000 tons to 7.396 million tons [14]. 3.3 Growth and Harvest Progress - **US**: As of September 21, the U.S. cotton boll - opening rate was 60%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. The picking progress was 12%, 1 percentage point behind last year and at the same level as the five - year average. In Texas, the boll - opening rate was 53%, 1 percentage point behind last year and at the same level as the five - year average, and the picking progress was 23%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average [18]. - **China**: As of September 25, the national new cotton picking progress was only 1.5%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year - on - year, still in the initial stage [40]. 3.4 Climate Conditions - **US**: The precipitation in the U.S. was relatively low. As of September 16, the drought - affected area accounted for 40.8% of the total area, an increase of 4.9 percentage points from the previous week. In Texas, the drought - affected area accounted for 20.7%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous week [21]. - **China**: From September 30 to October 5, Xinjiang was affected by cold air, with rain, snow, and strong winds in some areas, which may have an adverse impact on cotton harvesting [22]. 3.5 Import and Inventory - **Import**: In August 2025, China's cotton imports were 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons (40.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons (51.6%). From January to August 2025, the cumulative imports were 590,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72.6%. In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66.9% [24]. - **Inventory**: As of September 2025, China's domestic commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 305,800 tons, at a historically low level. The industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,200 tons, at a historically high level [26][30]. 3.6 Export Sign - ups and Shipments (US) - As of September 18, 2025, the U.S. had cumulatively signed 947,000 tons of cotton for export in the 2025/26 season, accounting for 36.22% of the expected annual exports, and had shipped 220,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 23.23%. China had cumulatively signed 17,000 tons, accounting for 1.77% of the signed volume, and had shipped 2,000 tons, accounting for 11.76% of the signed volume [28]. 3.7 Downstream Market - **Yarn**: The spot price of cotton yarn decreased slightly. Downstream traders and weaving factories replenished stocks for the National Day and subsequent demand, and the sales of cotton yarn were good. Some spinning enterprises had normal holidays during the National Day, while some extended their holidays. The opening rates of yarn mills in different regions were basically stable [34]. - **Retail**: In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.9668 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 104.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and a month - on - month increase of 8.74% [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core View of the Report The domestic softwood log spot market has stable overall quotes, with supply showing structural adjustments and demand presenting regional differentiation. The market maintains an inverted pattern between the domestic and foreign markets, and the inventory of domestic softwood logs has been continuously decreasing. As the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches and the current futures valuation is relatively low, it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy for the 11 - contract to bet on the peak - season demand expectation. In the short term, due to the pressure of the price difference between high foreign quotes and weak domestic spot, it is advisable to wait and see as the peak - season demand has not started yet [29] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Futures Price Trend In September, log futures prices remained volatile [8] Current Analysis - **Log Imports**: The number of actual arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports increased to 10, with a total arrival volume of about 344,000 cubic meters, an increase of 158,000 cubic meters or 85% compared to last week. In Shandong, 8 ships arrived, and the arrival volume increased by 266% to about 282,000 cubic meters; in Jiangsu, 2 ships arrived, and the arrival volume decreased to about 62,000 cubic meters [14] - **Log Outbound Volume**: The average daily outbound volume on Sundays decreased slightly (59,800 cubic meters, - 3,100 cubic meters), with regional differentiation. The outbound volume in Shandong decreased (- 3,800 cubic meters), while the outbound situation in Jiangsu continued to improve (+ 800 cubic meters) [18] - **Log Inventory**: There was some inventory accumulation in Jiangsu and Shandong. The current market maintains an inverted pattern between the domestic and foreign markets, and the foreign quotes have increased, leading to a certain increase in costs. The inventory of domestic softwood logs has been decreasing for several weeks [22] - **Spot Price**: As of July 2025, the CFR quote for radiata pine was $113 - 115/JAS/cubic meter, equivalent to RMB 795 - 805/cubic meter, with an import profit of about - RMB 53/cubic meter. In July 2025, the AWG price at the New Zealand port warehouse was 116 New Zealand dollars/JAS/cubic meter, the export cost was about $109/JAS/cubic meter, and the export profit was about 6.3 New Zealand dollars/JAS/cubic meter. The import profit was at the break - even point. The quote for grade A logs of 3.9 - meter in Shandong was stable at RMB 750/cubic meter, and the quote for grade A logs of 4 - meter in Jiangsu was RMB 780/cubic meter [25] Strategy Suggestion - **Market Outlook**: Recently, the overall quotes in the domestic softwood log spot market have remained stable. The supply side has undergone structural adjustments, and the demand side shows regional differentiation. The inventory of softwood logs decreased significantly last week. The current market maintains an inverted pattern between the domestic and foreign markets, and the foreign quotes support the cost. As the peak season approaches and the current futures valuation is relatively low, it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy for the 11 - contract. In the short term, due to the price - difference pressure and the unstarted peak - season demand, it is advisable to wait and see [29]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the first eight months of 2025, China's economic performance was mixed, with some indicators falling short of market expectations. The economy needs continuous domestic demand to maintain rapid growth, and more counter - cyclical adjustment policies are expected in the fourth quarter [68]. Summary by Categories Investment - From January to August, national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 1.3% and the 1.6% growth in January - July. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 5.4%, narrow infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 2.0%, and manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%. Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% [4]. Real Estate - From January to August, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 7.3%. In August, the sales of new commercial housing accelerated their decline. In September, the year - on - year growth of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was due to a low base last year, and the year - on - year growth rate in the fourth quarter will face challenges. In August, the prices of second - hand residential properties in first, second, and third - tier cities continued to decline [6][9][11]. Consumption - In August, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 3.8%. From January to August, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 4.6%. The growth rate of some categories related to the trade - in policy slowed down in August, while the growth of improved consumption accelerated. From January to August, service retail sales increased by 5.1% [13][15][18]. Industry - In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 5.8%. The product sales rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 96.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1 percentage point. From January to August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.9% year - on - year, turning positive from a 1.7% decline in January - July [22][24][62]. Employment - In August, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The unemployment rate of 16 - 24 - year - old labor force (excluding students) in urban areas was 18.9%, higher than the same period last year [28][30]. Foreign Trade - In August, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 4.4% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.3% year - on - year. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US decreased. Exports to regions other than the top five export destinations maintained high - speed growth [32][34][37]. Prices - In August, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, mainly due to the high base of comparison in the same period last year and lower - than - seasonal food prices. The PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the month - on - month decline ended [39][48]. Finance - In August, the social financing scale increased by 2.57 trillion yuan, less than the same period last year. The balance of M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the balance of M1 increased by 6% year - on - year. The stock of social financing scale increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the balance of RMB loans increased by 6.8% year - on - year [52][56][59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In Q3, the prices of treasury bond futures contracts declined overall, and the yields of treasury bond cash bonds fluctuated upward. The yield curve showed a bearish steepening trend. The Chinese economy in August was generally below market expectations, and there is a significant downward pressure on the year - on - year economic growth rate in Q4 due to the high base of the previous year. The central bank may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in Q4, and it is advisable to consider a strategy of buying treasury bond futures at low prices and conducting band operations [8][10][78] Summary by Directory 1. Disk Review - **Treasury Bond Futures Active Contract Trends**: In July and August, the strong continuous rise of the A - share market pushed up the risk appetite in the capital market, causing the prices of treasury bond futures contracts to decline overall. In September, the medium - and short - term varieties of the main treasury bond futures contracts fluctuated widely, while the main contract of the ultra - long - term 30 - year treasury bond futures continued to decline significantly [8] - **Treasury Bond Cash Bond Yield Trends**: The yield of treasury bond cash bonds hit a low in early January, over - anticipating the whole - year interest rate cut. After the central bank tightened the money market liquidity in January, the yield of treasury bonds rose in Q1. It slightly declined in late March and then quickly dropped in early April due to the US tariff increase news. Since July, the continuous rise of the stock index has pushed up the overall yield of treasury bonds. In Q3, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds fluctuated between 1.60% - 1.90% and ended at a relatively high level [10] - **Changes in the Treasury Bond Cash Bond Yield Curve**: Compared with June 30, the treasury bond cash bond yield curve on September 29 showed a bearish steepening trend, with the short - end rising less and the long - end rising more. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 15, 13, 24, and 38 basis points respectively [13] 2. Current Analysis - **Investment Data**: From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of national fixed - asset investment was 0.5%, lower than the market expectation of 1.3%. The growth rates of various types of investment, such as infrastructure and manufacturing, all declined compared with the previous period, and real estate development investment continued to decline [18] - **Real Estate Market**: From January to August, the sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased year - on - year, and the decline accelerated in August. The year - on - year growth of the average daily trading volume of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in September was due to the low base of the previous year, and the year - on - year data in Q4 will face challenges [20][23] - **Consumption Data**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3.4%, lower than the market expectation of 3.8%. The growth rate of the national service production index was 5.6%, and the growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods from January to August was 4.6%, with the growth rate dropping by 0.2 percentage points compared with January to July [25][27] - **Industrial Data**: In August, the year - on - year actual growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 5.2%, lower than the market expectation of 5.8%. The year - on - year growth rates of exports and imports in August were 4.4% and 1.3% respectively, with the trade surplus increasing [30][32] - **Employment Data**: In August, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the unemployment rates of different groups showed different trends [35] - **Financial Data**: In August, the increase in the scale of social financing was 2.57 trillion yuan, and the increase in RMB loans was 5.9 trillion yuan. At the end of August, the year - on - year growth rates of M2 and M1 were 8.8% and 6% respectively [37][41] - **Price Data**: In August, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year. In September, the agricultural product wholesale price continued to rise, the South China Industrial Products Index fluctuated narrowly, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fluctuated slightly [44][50][55] - **Overseas Data**: In September, the US treasury bond interest rate rebounded slightly after reaching a low point. The core CPI in the US in August increased by 3.1% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in October and December [57][60][64] - **Other Data**: In Q3, the yield of AAA 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit increased slightly, the net financing of government bonds continued at a fast pace, and the term spreads of treasury bonds widened [65][68][72] 3. Strategy Recommendations - The Chinese economy in August was generally below market expectations. There is a significant downward pressure on the year - on - year economic growth rate in Q4 due to the high base of the previous year. The central bank may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in Q4. If the intensity of counter - cyclical policies in Q4 is weaker than market expectations, the yield of treasury bonds is likely to decline, and it is advisable to consider a strategy of buying treasury bond futures at low prices and conducting band operations [78]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the manufacturing PMI was below the boom-bust line for the sixth consecutive month, showing production expansion and slightly weak demand. The service industry business activity index expanded moderately above the boom-bust line, but the new order index declined from the previous month. It is expected that counter-cyclical adjustment policies, including 50 billion yuan in new policy-based financial instruments, will be implemented in the fourth quarter [5][10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing Industry - **PMI**: In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, below the boom-bust line for six consecutive months, up from 49.4% in the previous month. Large enterprises continued to expand in the prosperity range, medium-sized enterprises remained stable, and the decline of small enterprises narrowed [2][6]. - **Production Index**: The production index in September was 51.9%, up from 50.8% in the previous month, with accelerated production expansion for five consecutive months [2][6]. - **New Order Index**: The new order index in September was 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month, indicating improved market demand, but still below the boom-bust line [2][6]. - **New Export and Import Order Indexes**: The new export order index in September was 47.8%, up from 47.2% in the previous month; the import index was 48.1%, up from 48.0% in the previous month. It is expected that China's exports will continue to grow rapidly in September [2][7]. - **Price Indexes**: The purchase price index of major raw materials and the ex-factory price index in September were 53.2% and 48.2% respectively. The former was in the expansion range for three consecutive months, while the latter declined from August. It is expected that the year-on-year decline of PPI in September will narrow to about 2.3% [3][7]. - **Inventory Indexes**: The raw material inventory index in September was 48.5%, up from 48.0% in the previous month; the finished product inventory index was 48.2%, up from 46.8% in the previous month. The rebound of the finished product inventory index was related to production expansion, and its sustainability depends on future new orders [4][8]. - **Employment and Expectation Indexes**: The employment index in September was 48.5%, up from 47.9% in the previous month, and the production and operation activity expectation index was 54.1%, up from 53.7% in the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in the employment situation and future expectations [9]. Non - Manufacturing Industry - **Overall Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index**: In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down from 50.3% in the previous month [4][9]. - **Construction Industry**: The construction industry business activity index in September was 49.3%, up from 49.1% in the previous month, with a slight recovery but still weak. The new order index was 42.2%, up from 40.6% in the previous month; the employment index was 39.7%, down from 43.6% in the previous month; the business activity expectation index was 52.4%, up from 51.7% in the previous month. The real estate market was still at the bottom, and real estate development investment was expected to contract significantly in September, dragging down the construction industry [4][9]. - **Service Industry**: The service industry business activity index in September was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month. The new order index was 46.7%, down from 47.7% in the previous month; the employment index remained unchanged at 45.9%; the business activity expectation index was 56.3%, down from 57.0% in the previous month. Industries such as postal, telecommunications, and financial services were in a high - level prosperity range, while industries such as catering, real estate, and cultural and sports entertainment were below the critical point [4][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The steel market is in a downward cycle, and the focus of the steel and ore futures market in Q4 is expected to be on domestic and international macro and policy changes. The price is likely to show a trend of first declining and then rising [4]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Review - Steel prices generally follow a 7 - year cycle. From 2008 - 2015, it was a downward trend, 2016 - 2021 an upward trend, and 2021 - 2025 a downward trend. In H1 2025, steel prices continued to fall, hitting a new low in June. In July, driven by anti - involution, prices rose strongly with a maximum increase of 16%, but fell unilaterally in August, and entered a range - bound state in September [7]. - Stainless steel had an upward trend from 2019 - 2022 and a downward trend since 2022. Iron ore generally follows a similar 7 - year cycle as steel, but with differences. Since 2021, it has been in a downward trend, with a sharp drop in 2021 and wide - range fluctuations between 555 - 955 from 2022 onwards. Overall, the iron ore trend is stronger than that of steel products [11]. Part 2: Current Analysis Supply - demand Logic - **Macro - economic and Policy Impact**: Economic growth is highly consistent with steel prices. China's GDP growth rate in Q1 was 5.4%, and the annual economic target is 5%. The economic growth rate in Q3 was significantly weaker than that in H1. Without obvious stimulus policies, it is difficult for steel prices to have a strong unilateral upward trend [14][17]. - **Industry Structure Change**: The proportion of construction steel in total steel consumption decreased from 31% in 2021 to 16% in 2024, while the proportion of steel used in infrastructure and machinery increased, with infrastructure becoming the largest consumer of steel [20]. - **Real Estate Market**: Since 2021, real estate investment indicators have turned negative, and steel prices have been in a downward cycle. From January to August 2025, the year - on - year decline in housing sales was 4.7%, the real estate development investment growth rate was - 12.9%, and the performance of new construction, completion, and construction areas was weak. The land transaction area has been low this year, indicating weak developer enthusiasm for land acquisition [23][27]. - **Government Bond Issuance**: In 2025, the issuance of local government bonds from January to August reached 7.68 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%. The replacement rhythm was significantly advanced, and the issuance of new bonds was relatively slow [30]. - **Manufacturing Industry**: The PMI in August was 49.4%, still in the contraction range. Global trade protectionism has affected the external demand of the steel - related manufacturing industry. It is expected that the steel demand in this industry will decline slightly in Q4 [33]. - **Steel Exports**: In Q3, the export growth rate first increased and then decreased. Although the price advantage of Chinese steel exports still exists, global trade protectionism will gradually suppress exports. The export growth rate in Q4 2025 may decline year - on - year [36]. - **Crude Steel Production**: From January to August 2025, China's crude steel production was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. It is expected that the crude steel production in Q4 will continue to decline, with an estimated output of about 200 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 1.5% [39][40]. - **Iron Ore Imports**: From January to August 2025, China imported 801.62 million tons of iron ore, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. It is expected that the import volume in Q4 will increase compared with Q3, but the annual import volume is still expected to decline slightly year - on - year [59]. - **Iron Ore Production**: In Q3 2025, the production of iron ore concentrate in China showed a recovery trend. It is expected that the production will continue to increase in Q4 due to the release of new production capacity and policy support [60]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: In Q3 2025, the iron ore inventory was relatively stable, and there was a certain accumulation in September. It is expected that the port inventory will show a slight accumulation trend in Q4, and the steel mill inventory will first increase and then decrease [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Low long [1] - Pig: Range trading [2] - Egg: High short [2] 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, the spot may remain weak due to new grain listing. In the medium - term, conduct band trading around new - season corn drivers. In the long - term, maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost [1]. - Pig: In the short - term, supply exceeds demand, pressuring the pig price. In the medium - term, the expected increase in supply restricts price hikes. In the long - term, the pig production capacity will continue to materialize this year, and supply pressure may ease next year [2]. - Egg: In the medium - and short - term, the approaching holiday leads to weakening egg prices. In the long - term, pay attention to the scale of culling hens, and the supply pressure may re - emerge in Q4 [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Corn Market Review - The corn futures fluctuated weakly last night. As of the night - session close, the LH2511 contract dropped 0.92% to 2151 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises continued to decline. The average purchase price in Northeast China was 2128 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day; in North China, it was 2322 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. - The prices at north - south ports were stable. The purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2230 - 2240 yuan/ton, and the transaction price at Shekou Port was 2390 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1]. - On September 29, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 265 to 21549 [1]. - The wheat - corn price difference turned positive and continued to widen. As of September 29, the difference in Shandong was +110 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton wider than the previous day [1]. Market Logic - Short - term: New grain is gradually listed, and the opening price in Northeast China has declined. The spot may remain weak. The lower support for the futures price is the planting cost of new - season corn, around 2050 - 2150 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure is the wheat - corn price difference [1]. - Medium - term: Conduct band trading around new - season corn drivers, and pay attention to factors like the opening price, farmers' selling sentiment, and downstream inventory - building [1]. - Long - term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost, and focus on policy guidance [1]. Trading Strategy - Adopt an interval trading strategy in the medium - and long - term. Recently, pay attention to low - long opportunities. The support for the 2511 contract is 2100 - 2130, and for the 2601 contract is 2100 - 2120. Hold long positions lightly. Control positions during the holiday [1]. Pig Market Review - The pig futures continued to decline. The LH2511 contract dropped 2.61% to 12295 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - On September 29, the national average pig price was 12.17 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day. It is expected that the morning pig price will be stable today [2]. - In August 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40380000, a 0.1% month - on - month decrease. The supply of pigs in the second half of the year is expected to increase [2]. - On September 29, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was 0.2 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - On September 25, the average weekly slaughter weight of pigs was 124.54 kg, a decrease of 0.14 kg from the previous week [2]. - On September 29, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts decreased by 298 to 0 [2]. - The central government will conduct a 15000 - ton rotation purchase of frozen pork on October 10 [2]. Market Logic - Short - term: The current supply exceeds demand, pressuring the pig price [2]. - Medium - term: The increase in the number of new - born piglets from February to June implies an increase in supply in the second half of the year, restricting price hikes [2]. - Long - term: The number of fertile sows is still above the normal level, and the production efficiency has increased. The pig production capacity will continue to materialize this year. The decrease in sow inventory from July to August may ease the supply pressure next year [2]. Trading Strategy - The policy of reducing sow inventory only affects the supply after the second half of next year. For near - month contracts, focus on the supply - demand logic. Consider gradually closing out short positions. For far - month contracts, trade the expected difference in sow inventory reduction and pay attention to actual changes [2]. - The support levels for the 2511, 2601, 2603, 2605, and 2607 contracts are 12000, 12500, 12200, 12600, and 13000 respectively. Control positions during the holiday [2]. Egg Market Review - The egg futures showed a pattern of near - month weakness and far - month strength. The JD2511 contract dropped 1.15% to 3016 yuan/500kg [2]. Important Information - The egg price continued to decline. On September 29, the average price in the main producing areas was 3.45 yuan/jin, and in the main selling areas was 3.81 yuan/jin, both lower than the previous day [2]. - The inventory level was basically stable. The average production - link inventory was 1.13 days, unchanged, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.24 days, an increase of 0.01 days [2]. - The average price of old hens on September 29 was 4.43 yuan/jin, unchanged. As of September 25, the average culling age was 498 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [2]. - In August, the number of laying hens was about 1.365 billion, a 0.66% month - on - month and 5.98% year - on - year increase. The estimated number in September is 1.353 billion, a 0.8% month - on - month decrease [2]. Market Logic - Medium - and short - term: With the approaching holiday, the downstream sales have slowed down, and the inventory has increased, pressuring the egg price [2]. - Long - term: Pay attention to the scale of culling hens. The current positive breeding profit and lower - than - expected culling may lead to increased supply pressure in Q4 [2]. Trading Strategy - Maintain a high - short strategy before large - scale culling. Hold short positions. The pressure levels for the 2511, 2512, 2601, and 2602 contracts are 3050 - 3060, 3190 - 3200, 3360 - 3370, and 3100 - 3110 respectively [2]. - Breeding enterprises can consider selling - hedging opportunities for the 2607 and 2608 contracts to lock in profits [2].