Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Corn: Interval [1] - Pig: Interval [3] - Egg: On - look [3] Group 2: Core Views - For the corn market, in the medium term, it is a multi - empty intertwined situation. In the long term, it maintains the pricing logic of substitution + planting cost. For the pig market, in the short - term, it is driven by supply - demand growth; in the medium - term, supply pressure varies by month; in the long - term, supply pressure is related to sow inventory. For the egg market, in the short - term, there is a short - term upward expectation but a supply - demand pressure in February; in the medium - term, egg supply pressure is not fully released; in the long - term, the price bottom cycle may be extended [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Corn - **Market Performance**: The night session of the corn futures oscillated and consolidated on the previous day, and the main contract 2603 rose 0.44% to 2,294 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices in the Northeast and North China increased slightly; port prices were stable; the number of corn futures warehouse receipts increased by 5,655 to 44,417 lots; the transaction rates of corn sales, purchase, and two - way trading by CGS were 72%, 55%, and 82% respectively [1] - **Market Logic**: In the medium term, the market is multi - empty intertwined, and in the long term, it is based on substitution + planting cost pricing [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a wide - range interval trading idea. For the 2603 contract, the pressure is at 2,300, and the short - term support is at 2,270 - 2,280; for the 2605 contract, the pressure is at 2,290, and the short - term support is at 2,270 - 2,275 [1] Pig - **Market Performance**: The pig futures rose first and then fell on the previous day, and the main 2603 contract rose 0.42% to 11,950 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: The national average pig price decreased slightly; sow inventory fell below 40 million heads in October 2025; the number of newborn piglets decreased in October and November 2025; the average slaughter weight of pigs increased; the price difference between fat and standard pigs was flat; the number of pig futures warehouse receipts was unchanged at 855 lots [1][3] - **Market Logic**: In the short - term, supply - demand growth creates a pressure - support situation; in the medium - term, supply pressure varies by month; in the long - term, supply pressure is related to sow inventory [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain an interval trading idea. For different contracts, different pressure and support levels are provided [3] Egg - **Market Performance**: The near - month contracts of egg futures rose significantly on the previous day, and the main 2603 contract rose 2.23% to 3,066 yuan/500KG [3] - **Important Information**: The national egg price continued to rise; inventory was stable with a slight decrease; the price of culled chickens increased; the estimated number of laying hens in January was 13.34 billion; the number of egg futures warehouse receipts was 0 lots [3] - **Market Logic**: In the short - term, there is an upward expectation, but there is a supply - demand pressure in February; in the medium - term, egg supply pressure is not fully released; in the long - term, the price bottom cycle may be extended [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities in the near - month contracts after a rise. Focus on the first - quarter culling and molting of chickens [3]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 16 日星期五 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ICE3 月合约结算价 64.71 跌 28 点，5 月 66.27 跌 23 点，7 月 67.69 跌 22 点；成 交约 4.5 万手。 | | | | | 郑棉总成交 437374 持仓 1212127。结算价 1 月 14780，5 月 14720，9 月 14840。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、11 月孟加拉棉花进口约 12.1 万吨，环比（11.0 万吨）增加 9.6%，同比（11.6 | | | | | 万吨）增加 4.8%。从当月进口来源来看，巴西棉进口量占首位，占总进口量的 | | ...

2026 年 1 月 16 日星期五 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日日盘锰硅主力合约 SM2603 收于 5870，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.84%；硅铁主力合约 SF2603 收于 5610，环比日盘开盘下跌 1.41%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、央行打出"组合拳"支持经济高质量发展。其中包括：下调再贷款、再贴现利率 0.25 | | | | | 个百分点；合并使用支农支小再贷款与再贴现额度，增加支农支小再贷款额度 5000 亿 | | | | | 元，总额度中单设 1 万亿元民营企业再贷款；拓展碳减排支持工具支持领域；将商业用 | | | | | 房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至 30%。央行表示，今年降准降息还有一 ...

Morning session notice 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1187.5，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.75%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1745.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.37%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1180.0， 环比日盘收盘下跌 0.63%。焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1735.0，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.57%。 【重要资讯】 1、央行打出"组合拳"支持经济高质量发展。其中包括：下调再贷款、再贴现利率 0.25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | | 个百分点；合并使用支农支小再贷款与再贴现额度，增加支农支小再贷款额度 5000 亿 元，总额度中单设 1 万亿元民营企业再贷款；拓展碳减排支持工具支持领域；将商业用 房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至 30%。央行表示，今年降准降息还有一定空间。 2、本周，Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为 88.5%，环比增 3.1%。 原煤日均产量 197 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The macro and financial sector of the global economy is rated as "downward" [1] Core Viewpoints - The global political order has entered a dark period of the law of the jungle, causing huge uncertainties to the global economy. The global economy has passed the peak and started to decline [2][4] - The Fed's uncertainty is expected to peak from July to November 2026, and the market may see a trend of "fleeing US assets" [2] - The construction boom of AI data centers in the next five years will require at least $5 trillion [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Economic Logic - The US has taken actions such as attempting to control Venezuelan oil and purchasing Greenland, which has disrupted the global political order [2] - The US prosecutor has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, and the Fed has restarted the expansion of its balance - sheet [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signal before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US is adjusting its economic relationship with China and aiming to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The K - shaped differentiation of consumers in the US is intensifying [2] - The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates, and the yield of Japanese 10 - year treasury bonds has risen [2] - Google plans to double its AI computing power every six months and increase it by 1000 times in the next 4 - 5 years [2] - NVIDIA's CEO believes that China will win the AI competition [2] Morning Session Notice - Trump has launched fiscal, monetary, and credit stimulus, but it may lead to future debt crises and market crashes [1] - Citigroup's report indicates that the commodity market is at a turning point, with different price outlooks for various commodities [1] - US retail sales in November exceeded expectations, and the PPI rebounded [1] - The cost gap between building space data centers and ground data centers is narrowing [1] - The demand for global AI chips is constrained by TSMC's production capacity [1] - NVIDIA's new architecture is expected to increase the demand for NAND flash memory [1] - OpenAI has signed a deal with Cerebras worth over $1 billion [1] Other - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on major asset classes [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For the vegetable oil sector, the US biofuel policy boosts global vegetable oil prices, but currently, it's hard to form a trending direction. In the medium - to - long - term, it's advisable to adopt a long - position mindset of buying on dips for soybean and palm oil, and hold short - term long positions for rapeseed oil, paying attention to its rebound strength[2]. - For the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, the 05 contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - term with intraday trading, and short positions can be gradually arranged for the 09 contracts[4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Agricultural, Livestock, and Edible Oil Sector 3.1.1 Market Review - On January 15th, under the double negative factors of Malaysia lowering the export tariff of crude palm oil in February and the easing of the Iranian crisis with a drop in international crude oil prices, palm oil led the decline in the vegetable oil sector. The main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7,938 yuan/ton, down 0.77% day - on - day in terms of closing price, with a daily reduction of 3,882 lots. The main palm oil contract P2605 closed at 8,578 yuan/ton, down 1.94% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 8,279 lots. The main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 closed at 8,828 yuan/ton, down 1.35% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 12,208 lots[1]. 3.1.2 Important News - On January 15th, NYMEX crude oil futures fell sharply, ending a five - day rally, with the 2 - month crude oil futures contract down 2.83 dollars or 4.6%, settling at 59.19 dollars per barrel[1]. - Discussions on canola seeds between Beijing and Canada have achieved results, and negotiations are still ongoing[1]. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, basically following the initial proposal, and abandoning a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, close to the initially proposed 5.61 billion gallons[1]. - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% blending ratio. However, the B50 mandatory addition plan is expected to start in the second half of 2026[1][2]. - Indian buyers have locked in a large amount of soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil[1]. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in February, and the export tariff has dropped to 9%[1]. - From January 1st to 10th, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 504,400 tons, a 29.2% increase from 390,442 tons in the same period of December, but exports to China decreased by 31,000 tons to 18,000 tons[1]. - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1417 million tons, a weekly decrease of 104,800 tons, a 4.67% month - on - month decrease, and a 7.76% year - on - year increase[2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the easing of the US - Iran situation has pressured international crude oil prices, but the US government's approval of the 2026 biofuel quota has boosted the price of US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil prices initially fell but recovered due to the sharp rise in US soybean oil[2]. - Domestically, for soybean oil, the news is mixed. Customs has tightened the clearance of imported soybeans, but the auction of domestic old imported soybeans was fully sold, and the Spring Festival stocking is still ongoing. For palm oil, Indonesia's cancellation of the B50 plan in 2026 has led to a recovery in import profits and inventory accumulation. For rapeseed oil, the discussion on canola seeds has achieved results, but short - selling funds entered the market, and then the price rebounded at night[2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: New long positions can be entered for soybean and palm oil, and short - term long positions can be held for rapeseed oil, paying attention to its rebound strength. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract[2]. - Arbitrage: Exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the spread between soybean and palm oil[2]. 3.2 Two - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Sector 3.2.1 Market Review - On January 15th, the market basically digested the negative news of Canadian rapeseed's return to the Chinese market. With weak oil and strong meal, the near - month contracts of the two - meal oscillated, and the far - month contracts were bearish. The main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2,740 yuan/ton, down 0.40% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 6,160 lots[2]. 3.2.2 Important News - The auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans was fully sold, with a base price of 3,630 - 3,790 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 3,809.55 yuan/ton, mostly at a premium[3]. - The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes increased production, higher crushing volume, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Global soybean production is raised by 3.1 million tons to 425.7 million tons, mainly due to increased production in Brazil and the US[3]. - As of January 9th, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 0.53%, compared with 0.05% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 0.39%[3]. - As of December 30th, the 2025/26 Argentine soybean sowing was 82% complete, with good growth conditions[3]. - Brazil's soybean exports in December 2025 were estimated to be 3.38 million tons, a 69% year - on - year increase. The estimated soybean exports in January 2026 are 2.4 million tons, a 114% year - on - year increase, and the 2026 exports are expected to reach a record 112 million tons[3]. - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total domestic inventory of imported soybeans was 7.488 million tons, an increase of 612,000 tons from the previous week[3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US new - year biofuel usage plan has boosted the price of US soybeans. - Domestically, the spot price of the oil mill is stable, and the near - month basis is strong. Before the Spring Festival, the spot price is likely to rise. The negotiation on reducing the Canadian rapeseed tariff is ongoing and effective, and there are rumors of opening the import of Canadian rapeseed meal, which suppresses the futures market[4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - The 05 contracts of the two - meal are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - term, with intraday trading. Short positions can be gradually arranged for the 09 contracts. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. There is no arbitrage strategy for now[4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the main indices of the two markets oscillated and adjusted to repair technical indicators, with the semiconductor equipment sector leading the gains. International investors are accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets, and multiple foreign - funded institutions are optimistic about the performance of Chinese assets in 2026. The Chinese stock market has a high probability of rising in 2026, and the growth - type indices are expected to end the adjustment and resume the upward trend on Friday or early next week. Long - term index futures positions should be held, and investors can choose to buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 Index [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the trading volume of the two markets was 2.90 trillion yuan, showing a rapid contraction. The CSI 500 Index closed at 8223 points, down 4 points or - 0.05%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 8240 points, down 16 points or - 0.20%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 3105 points, down 6 points or - 0.21%; the SHSZ 300 Index closed at 4751 points, up 9 points or 0.20%. The funds in stock index futures for the CSI 1000, SHSZ 300, CSI 500, and SSE 50 indices had net outflows of 7.1 billion, 4.4 billion, 3.6 billion, and 1.3 billion yuan respectively [1] - Among industry and theme ETFs, the top gainers were semiconductor equipment ETFs, while the top losers were satellite industry ETFs. Among the sector indices of the two markets, the glass - fiber, rubber, and other sectors led the gains, and the industrial Internet, aerospace equipment, and other sectors led the losses [1] 3.2 Important Information - The central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and will lower the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing mortgages to 30%. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year [1] - China's "demand shortage" is mainly "consumer demand shortage", with the consumption - to - GDP ratio about 20 percentage points lower than the global average, and this gap needs to be corrected [1] - More than 10 billion yuan of funds continuously entered the market through ETFs. From January 9th to 13th, the net subscription amount of equity ETFs exceeded 12 billion yuan for three consecutive trading days, with a total net subscription amount exceeding 47 billion yuan. On January 14th, the trading volume of many broad - based ETFs increased significantly, and many newly issued funds announced the early end of fundraising [1] - China shows strong R & D potential and a clear technology iteration path. The relaxation of the H200 export policy by the US indicates that it can no longer block China's technological take - off [1] - Nvidia's new AI inference context memory storage (ICMS) architecture is expected to significantly exacerbate the global shortage of NAND flash memory, bringing additional demand equivalent to 2.8% and 9.3% of the global total NAND demand in 2026 and 2027 respectively [1] - The global explosion in AI chip demand is constrained by TSMC's production capacity, with a supply - demand gap of three times for its most advanced processes. Although TSMC is adjusting production lines and expanding production globally, the shortage cannot be alleviated in the short term, and the advanced packaging link has become a key bottleneck [2] - Deutsche Bank believes that the cost gap between space deployment and ground construction is shrinking rapidly, and in the next decade, the cost of building a space data center will approach that of ground construction [2] - OpenAI signed a three - year agreement with Cerebras, promising to purchase up to 750 megawatts of computing power, all using Cerebras' wafer - scale chips, with a transaction value exceeding $10 billion [2] - Trump launched fiscal, monetary, and credit stimulus, which may lead to debt out - of - control, financial risk accumulation, and a future debt crisis and market crash [2] - Wall Street financial institutions are entering the prediction market, and this emerging market has evolved into a sports - contract - based betting platform [2] - Citi's research report indicates that the commodity market is at a turning point. Crude oil is driven by geopolitics in the short term with a target of $70, but faces long - term oversupply pressure. Precious metals are bullish, with a target of $100 for silver and $5000 for gold. Among industrial metals, the target for aluminum is $3400 - 3500, and the copper price is expected to reach $14000, but January may be the annual high [2] 3.3 Market Logic - International investors are accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets. Many foreign - funded institutions are optimistic about the performance of Chinese assets in 2026. The continuous improvement of corporate profits, continuous technological innovation breakthroughs, and increasing valuation attractiveness provide a solid foundation for the continuous rise of Chinese assets [2] - In 2025, the stock market had a net inflow of 2.26 trillion yuan. In 2026, insurance, wealth management, and pensions are expected to be the three major sources of incremental funds, with institutional incremental funds in the stock market reaching 3.1 trillion yuan, and the scale of public fixed - income + products at least doubling [2] - More international funds are turning their attention to the AI track outside the US. China's technology sector, with its valuation advantages, complete industrial ecosystem, and large - scale manufacturing capabilities, is becoming a new destination for global funds in the AI field [2][3] 3.4 Market Outlook - The trading - type investors are actively increasing their positions in Chinese assets, and the allocation - type investors are optimizing the weight of Chinese assets in the global portfolio. The application for satellite frequency and orbit resources has risen to the national strategic level, and the upward trend of the Chinese market is expected to continue in 2026 [3] - The risk of a significant rise in the Chinese stock market in 2026 is much higher than that of a significant decline. The acceleration of AI applications, anti - involution, and the re - allocation of domestic liquidity from deposits to the stock market are positive factors [3] - The return of the US to the Monroe Doctrine will accelerate the flow of global funds to the Chinese capital market. The Fed's interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion, along with the appreciation of the RMB, will lead to the return of a large amount of US dollars held by foreign trade enterprises overseas, and funds will flow from enterprise accounts to resident accounts and then to securities accounts [3] - China's application for 200,000 low - orbit satellites has shocked the market, indicating that the Sino - US space infrastructure competition has become a key area of technological competition. The adjustment of growth - type indices is expected to end on Friday or early next week, and the upward trend will resume [3] 3.5 Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, the policy hopes for a bull market but also a slow one. With a large amount of off - market funds still flowing in, the upward trend driven by market funds remains unchanged. Long - term stock index futures positions should be held [3] - For stock index option trading, investors can choose to buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 Index [3]

Report Summary Core View - The central bank's decision on January 15, 2026, to cut the rediscount and relending rates is not a general - type interest rate cut. It aims to encourage commercial banks to lend to specific sectors through the structural monetary policy tool [1][3]. Key Information - **Interest Rate Adjustment Details**: Starting from January 19, 2026, the central bank will cut the relending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points. After the cut, the 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year relending rates for supporting agriculture and small businesses are 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% respectively. The rediscount rate is 1.5%, the pledged supplementary lending rate is 1.75%, and the special structural monetary policy tool rate is 1.25% [3]. - **Function of Structural Monetary Policy Tool**: It is a targeted regulation system established by the central bank. It uses relending and incentive funds to guide financial institutions to precisely support key areas of the national economy. There are long - term and phased types, and it adopts a "lend first, borrow later" mechanism [3]. - **Impact on Commercial Banks**: After the adjustment, the 1 - year relending rate for supporting agriculture and small businesses is 1.25%, lower than the current 7 - day reverse repurchase rate in the open market (1.4%). This gives commercial banks a higher interest rate spread, motivating them to lend to specific sectors and achieving policy - oriented capital support [3]. - **Impact on the Bond Market**: After the news was released in the afternoon, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures briefly rose and then fell because this interest rate cut is not a general one [3].

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 15 日星期四 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周三主力合约期货BZ2603价格上涨54元至5725元/吨，华东主流地区现货价格5585 | | | | | 元/吨（环比+130），山东地区现货价格 5465 元/吨（环比+140）。持仓方面，多头 | | | | | 增加 580 手至 2.07 万手，空头减少 60 手至 2.53 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，12 月国内纯苯产量 193.4 万吨，同比+1.3%。11 月纯苯进口量 45.96 | | | | | 万吨，环比-7.4%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：32.4 万吨，较上期库存 3 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 15 日星期四 | | | | 铁矿: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周三铁矿收涨。夜盘收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、月 14 日，中国汽车工业协会发布的最新数据显示，2025 年，汽车产销量分别为 | | | | | 3453.1 万辆和 3440 万辆，同比分别增长 10.4%和 9.4%，产销量再创历史新高，连 | | | | | 续 17 年稳居全球第一。新动能加快释放，新能源汽车产销量超 1600 万辆，其中国 | | | | | 内新车销量占比超 50%，成为我国汽车市场主导力量。在对外贸易方面，呈现出较 | | | | | 强韧性，汽车出口超 700 万辆，出口规模再上新台阶。其中，新能源汽 ...