Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper sector in the non - ferrous metals industry is "oscillating with a downward bias" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The core factor driving the copper price to break through the historical high is the concern about the US imposing tariffs on refined copper in the future, which leads to the concentration of global copper liquidity in the US. At the beginning of 2026, the non - commercial long and net long positions of COMEX copper, as well as the long and net long positions of LME copper investment funds, all continued to rise. The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell and the Trump administration's threat to the Fed are expected to put pressure on the Fed regarding interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to metals with strong financial attributes such as gold, silver, copper, platinum, and palladium [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The night - session closing price of the main copper contract CU2603 was 102,860 yuan/ton, a 0.7% decline from the previous night - session closing price. The second - main contract CU2604 closed at 103,080 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.74%. As of 06:00 on January 16, 2026, the closing price of the COMEX copper main contract HGH26E was 5.9915 US dollars per pound (equivalent to 92,063 yuan/ton at an exchange rate of 6.9698), a 1.7% decline from the previous trading day. The LME copper main contract CA03 closed at 13,148.5 US dollars per ton (equivalent to 91,642 yuan/ton at an exchange rate of 6.9698), a 0.3% decline [1] Important Information - On January 15, Codelco announced that its Ministro Hales copper mine had obtained environmental approval, with its operating life extended to 2054 and annual production capacity increased from 170,000 tons to 200,000 tons [1] - On January 15, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 LME copper price forecast from 11,400 US dollars per ton to 12,200 US dollars per ton [1] - On January 11, China Non - Ferrous Metal Mining (1258.HK) released a production guidance, expecting a total copper production of about 484,000 tons in 2026, including about 134,000 tons of cathode copper and about 350,000 tons of blister copper/anode copper. The main and auxiliary shafts of the southeast ore body of Zhongse Feikuang Qianbi were repaired in December 2025, and the mine resumed production on January 1, 2026 [1] - On January 13, Codelco's chairman said that the company's copper production in 2026 was expected to reach 1.344 million tons, an increase of about 10,000 tons compared to 2025 [1] Market Logic - The fear of US tariffs on refined copper led to the concentration of global copper liquidity in the US, causing the LME copper inventory in Europe to decline from nearly 70,000 tons to less than 15,000 tons since April, and the COMEX copper inventory to rise from less than 100,000 short tons to over 500,000 tons. The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell and the Trump administration's threat to the Fed are expected to put pressure on interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to metals with strong financial attributes [1] Trading Strategy - There is no trading strategy provided at present [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged, and the adjustment is expected to end in the first half of next week, followed by a resumption of the upward trend. Global funds are re - investing in the Chinese stock market, and the inflow of off - site funds continues, maintaining a capital - driven upward trend. The semiconductor sector is expected to take over from the commercial aerospace sector, with the high - prosperity of the semiconductor equipment sector indicated by TSMC's performance and capital expenditure plans [2][16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Market and Index Trends - Policy aims for a slow - bull market, as shown by recent policy regulations. The satellite ETF declined significantly after commercial aerospace - related listed companies announced risks on Monday. The adjustment of the margin trading guarantee ratio led to a sharp decline in the CSI 500 index on Wednesday afternoon [4][7][10]. - TSMC's Q4 performance was strong, with revenue of about $337.3 billion, a 20.5% year - on - year increase, and a net profit up 35% year - on - year and 11.82% quarter - on - quarter. It expects Q1 revenue to increase by 40% year - on - year to $358 billion in 2026, and its dollar revenue to grow by nearly 30%. Capital expenditure is estimated to be $520 - 560 billion, a 27% - 37% increase from 2025, indicating a high - growth trend in the semiconductor sector [13]. - Global funds are re - increasing their investment in the Chinese stock market. Foreign capital is shifting from passive inflows to an expected return of active funds. The RMB is appreciating, accelerating the return of overseas - hoarded dollars of foreign trade enterprises. The inflow of off - site funds continues, and the upward trend driven by market funds remains unchanged. The adjustment is expected to end in the first half of next week, and the stock index will resume its upward trend. Long - term multi - orders for stock index futures should be held, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have stronger offensive capabilities. For stock index options, consider buying deep - out - of - the - money call options on the CSI 1000 index with a long - term maturity [16][17]. Macroeconomic Indicators in China - In December, the year - on - year growth rate of the core CPI was 1.2%, and the real interest rate has been negative for consecutive periods, with a 0.2% month - on - month increase. In December, the month - on - month increase of the industrial producer purchase price index was 0.4%, indicating that the Chinese economy is moving towards re - inflation [18][21]. - The balance of margin trading is approaching 2.7 trillion yuan, reaching a new high. In December, there were 2.59 million new A - share accounts opened [23]. - In December, China's export value reached $357.7 billion, a new record, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6%, showing export resilience [26]. - In November, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.94 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 4.4%, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing investment [29]. - In November, the monthly value of infrastructure investment was 2.08 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 11.9%, indicating a slowdown in infrastructure investment and reflecting local fiscal difficulties [32]. - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 31.3%, reaching a new low [35]. - In November, the monthly value of total social consumer goods retail sales was 4.38 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 1.3%. In the context of expected decline in exports and slowdown in investment, consumption has become the main driving force for economic growth [38]. US Macroeconomic Indicators - The US unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, and the employment boom has declined, with a rapid increase in the number of voluntary lay - offs by US enterprises [41][44]. - In November, the total retail and food sales in the US increased by 0.6% month - on - month, which may be related to seasonal factors, but overall US consumption has weakened [47]. - In December, the price index of the US manufacturing PMI and the service - sector PMI continued to expand, indicating that the US is moving towards stagflation [50]. International Market Impact - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, and the yield of the 10 - year Japanese government bond soared to 2.18%. The large - scale return of yen carry - trade will have a negative impact on US bonds, US stocks, and Chinese bonds [53]. - The accelerating appreciation of the RMB is conducive to the accelerated inflow of international capital into China [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy has passed its peak and is moving downward due to the continuous wrong policies of the United States [7] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, initiated monthly purchases of $40 billion in short - term Treasury bonds, and restarted balance - sheet expansion [8] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is approaching a critical point, and international oil prices have rebounded rapidly, but the rise is pulsed and not trending [4][42] - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to become the leading sector of the new upward market, driven by TSMC's strong performance and capital expenditure [44][45] - The appreciation of the RMB is accelerating, which is conducive to the accelerated influx of international capital into China [49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - The United States' series of actions, such as arresting the Venezuelan president, seizing oil tankers on the high seas, and attempting to buy Greenland, have brought great uncertainty to the global economy. The US prosecutor has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, and Nomura predicts that Fed - related uncertainties will peak from July to November 2026, possibly leading to a "flight from US assets" trend [6] - TSMC's capital expenditure in 2026 is estimated to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a year - on - year increase of 27% - 37%, which is expected to hit a record high, indicating the continuation of the AI boom [6][44] - The US is returning to the Monroe Doctrine and contracting globally, which will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes [6] US Economic Data - The US core CPI in December was 2.6%, lower than expected, with zero month - on - month growth (but the data may be underestimated). The PPI of US commodities in November increased by 3.3% year - on - year and 0.9% month - on - month, indicating an upward inflation trend [11][14] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US was 198,000, the unemployment rate was 4.4%, the employment boom declined, and the number of voluntary corporate layoffs increased [16][19] - The total retail and food sales in the US in November increased by 0.6% month - on - month, possibly due to seasonal factors, but overall consumption has weakened. The import value of capital goods in October was $94.4 billion, showing signs of weakness, suggesting a poor manufacturing outlook [22][25] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index continued to contract in December, while the manufacturing and service PMI price indices continued to expand, indicating that the US is sliding into stagflation [28][30] Global Economic Situation - The eurozone manufacturing PMI continued to contract in December, and the eurozone economy was greatly impacted by US reciprocal tariffs [33] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the yield of Japan's 10 - year Treasury bonds soared to 2%, and the large - scale return of yen carry trades will have a negative impact on US Treasuries, US stocks, and Chinese bonds [35] Asset Allocation - The international political order is disordered, accelerating the re - allocation of global financial assets, mainly flowing to China. The adjustment of the Chinese stock market is expected to end in the first half of next week, and then resume the upward trend [41] - The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive in the rising market, and the CSI 500 index is expected to lead the new upward market [40][52] - TSMC's strong performance and capital expenditure point to the high - prosperity direction of the semiconductor equipment sector. The semiconductor equipment ETF has completed an upward breakthrough, and the chip ETF is about to break through upward, and the semiconductor industry chain is expected to replace commercial aerospace as the leading sector of the new upward market [44][45] - The appreciation of the RMB is accelerating, which is conducive to the accelerated influx of international capital into China [49]

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 钢矿进入平台整理期 2026年1月16日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：纪晓云 联系方式：010-56711796 期货从业资格证号：F3066027 期货交易咨询号：Z0011402 钢矿观点 钢材：本期钢材产量、库存均下降，其中螺纹产量和库存微降，热卷产量增加，库存微降。表需环比增加。 项目需求保持稳定，市场整体成交尚可，商家心态较好，对后市预期较为看好。总体看，基本面供需矛盾 不突出。宏观影响偏中性。预计盘面继续震荡走势。 铁矿石：本期日均铁水产量 228.01万吨，环比上周减少1.49万吨，同比去年增加3.53万吨，结束三连增。 本期铁矿到港总量增加，发运季节性下降。国内铁矿产量增加，港口进口铁矿库存持续累库。综合判断， 预计铁矿后期震荡走势。 重要资讯 1、工信部部长李乐成：2026年将着重抓好"稳""扩""创""增"四方面工作，保持工业经济平稳增长。 2、据国际船舶网跟踪：2026年1月5日至2026年1月11日，全球船厂共接获33+8艘新船订单。其中中国船厂接获26+8艘新船订单； 韩国船厂接获7艘新船订单。 3、1月15日，央行副行 ...

市场快讯 -- 政策连续降温情绪,碳酸锂下跌回补缺口 > 碳酸锂 2026年1月16日 数据来源:wind. 留宝资讯,公开信息,格林大华期货 研究员:王琛 从业资格 F0276812 交易咨询:Z0021310 联系方式:wangchen@greendh.com 在任則情况下,求公司不知張吉中的任何的音对任何技术所顾正任何形式的担保,按受者据此投资,按资网除 ● 截止1月16日收盘,碳酸锂主力合约收盘价146200元/吨跌 停,回补周初跳涨缺口,日内减仓27809手。 > 本周前期碳酸锂在电池出口增值税逐步取消退税政策的需 求抢跑预期下,大幅上涨,最高触及17万元/吨。1月13、 14日,广期所连续两天发布公告,上调碳酸锂合约交易手 续费以及限制持仓量。1月14日,沪深北三大交易所同步 宣布,将融资买入最低保证金比例由80%上调至100%,自 1月19日起施行。连续发布的政策为近期股市、商品市场 持续高涨的情绪进行了降温,碳酸锂随需求预期"抢跑" 的溢价部分开始回调。今日盘中再传交易所有问询动作, 加速本次碳酸锂回调速度。 ● 基本面来看,根据富宝数据,截止2026年1月15日,当周碳 酸锂产量2.25万吨 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Apple futures' main contract opened with a downward gap and weakened, with a decline exceeding 2%. Despite the post - New Year cold - storage weekly de - stocking volume exceeding 100,000 tons, the terminal consumption recovery was weaker than expected. The apple futures price still has upward drivers due to factors such as the approaching Spring Festival consumption peak and the increasing cost of warehouse receipt registration, but the de - stocking rhythm of general goods and changes in the mainstream transaction price are key variables affecting the market trend [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Situation - After the new - season apples were harvested in November 2025, the apple futures price soared to 10,000 yuan/ton due to reduced production and a higher proportion of low - quality fruits. However, the concentrated listing of seasonal fruits such as southern citrus and imported cherries diverted apple consumption, resulting in a significant lag in the market de - stocking progress compared to the same period in previous years [3] Regional Market Conditions - In the Qixia market, the trading of stored Fuji apples remained sluggish, with cold - storage shipments mainly from merchants' self - stored sources, few transactions of farmers' apples, slow sales, and the market in a weak consolidation state. In the Luochuan area, the trading atmosphere of stored Fuji apples was average, with a slight increase in merchants' packaging and shipping volume but mainly for immediate pick - up, and limited transactions of farmers' apples. In the Jingning area, the trading was relatively stable, with merchants preferentially handling their self - stored sources, few transactions of farmers' apples, and sporadic transactions mainly for high - quality goods [4] Overall Market Structure - Currently, the overall supply of cold - storage apples is sufficient, but there is a prominent structural contradiction: the market circulation volume of high - quality apples is limited, while the sales progress of low - quality apples is relatively slow. With the start of Spring Festival stocking demand, the competition for high - quality fruit sources has intensified, further highlighting the scarcity of good goods and increasing the cost of warehouse receipt registration [5] Operational Suggestions - Try to go long when the main 05 contract is below 9,500 yuan/ton. For options, buy AP05 - C - 9600 and sell AP05 - P - 9000 [5]

联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四国债期货主力合约开盘多数高开，多数表现为早盘震荡上行，午后横向波动， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 临近尾盘受消息影响快速冲高但很快回落，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 下跌 0.08%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.11%，5 年期 TF2603 上涨 0.09%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.04%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周四央行开展了 1793 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 99 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日合计净投放 1694 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周四银行间资金市场隔夜利率持平，DR001 全天加权平均为 1.37%， | | | | | 上一交易日加权平均 1.39%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.50%，上一交易日加权平均 | | | | | 1.57%。 | | | | TL、T、 TF、TS | 3、现券市场：周 ...

| 铂金在内的关键矿产征收全面关税，推动白银价格在周四一度较大幅度回撤。1 | 月 | 15 | 日美元指数最终收涨 | 0.28%，报 | 99.35。1 | 月 | 15 | 日全天 | COMEX | 黄金探底回升，COMEX | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 白银大幅回撤后、收复多数失地。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 【交易策略】 | | | | | | | | | | | | 贵金属短线波动加剧，多头继续持仓，注意控制风险。 | | | | | | | | | | | 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报 ...

早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 16 日星期五 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 钢材: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周四螺纹收跌热卷持平。夜盘螺纹收平热卷收涨。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | 1、月 | 15 | 日，从国家电网公司获悉，"十五五"期间，国家电网公司固定资产投资 | 预计达到 | 4 | 万亿元，较"十四五"投资增长 | 40%，以扩大有效投资带动新型电力系 | | | | | 统产业链供应链高质量发展。 | 2、Mysteel | 调研：12 | 月山东制造业产废量保持稳定 | 部分企业有增加趋势。 | | | | | | | 3、1 | 月 | 14 | 日，工业和信息化部装 ...

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 16 日星期五 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四夜盘主力合约 2605 期货价格下跌 39 元至 2245 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 价格下跌 17 元至 2240 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 6557 手至 44.3 万手，空头 持仓增加 14197 手至 61.3 万手。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 震荡偏 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 91.1%，环比-0.3%。海外甲醇开工率 59.4%，环比+1.8%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 144.03 万吨，较上一期数据减少 9.69 吨。 其中，华东地区去库，库存减少 8.44 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 1.25 万吨。 中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 45.09 万吨，较上期微增 0.32 万吨，环比增 ...