Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - 8月中国经济整体表现低于市场预期，内需需持续发力以保持经济较快增长，部分逆周期调节政策或近期落地，临近假期国债期货短线或震荡，交易型投资建议波段操作 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - 周一国债期货主力合约开盘全线小幅高开，多数早盘震荡走低、午后横向波动，30年期回调幅度大，截至收盘30年期国债期货主力合约TL2512下跌0.47%，10年期T2512下跌0.01%，5年期TF2512下跌0.04%，2年期TS2512下跌0.02% [1] 3.2 Important Information - 公开市场：周一央行开展2886亿元7天期逆回购操作，当日有2405亿元逆回购到期，实现净投放481亿元 [1] - 资金市场：周一银行间资金市场隔夜利率基本不变，DR001全天加权平均为1.31%，DR007全天加权平均为1.59% [1] - 现券市场：周一银行间国债现券收盘收益率多数上行，2年期到期收益率上行0.43个BP至1.51%，5年期上行1.62个BP至1.64%，10年期上行0.89个BP至1.89%，30年期上行2.40个BP至2.24% [1] - 中共中央政治局9月29日召开会议研究制定十五五规划重大问题，二十届四中全会将于10月20日至23日在北京召开 [1] - 9月29日国家发改委表示新型政策性金融工具规模5000亿元用于补充项目资本金，正抓紧投放资金，后续将督促开工建设形成实物工作量，还将持续发力实施宏观政策并加强经济监测 [1] 3.3 Market Logic - 8月中国经济低于预期，内需需发力，部分逆周期调节政策或落地，8月工业企业利润同比大幅增长有去年同期低基数原因，央行将保证流动性充裕，周一国债期货主力合约高开后受股指上涨制约回调，超长品种回调多 [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - 交易型投资进行波段操作 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating weakly" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic urea start - up has rebounded this week. Agriculture is still in the off - season, and industrial demand is rising slowly. Upstream factories continue to accumulate inventory, and there is still pressure on upstream orders before the holiday. The short - term urea price will oscillate at a low level, with a reference range of 1620 - 1720 yuan/ton. Traders should hold a light position or be out of the market approaching the holiday [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Review - On Monday, the price of the main urea contract 2601 dropped by 9 yuan to 1664 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China's mainstream area remained stable at 1610 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 8102 lots to 191,900 lots, and short positions decreased by 7699 lots to 234,900 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 199,400 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from the previous working day. The current operating rate is 85.2%, an increase of 0.08% compared to 85.13% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.2182 million tons, an increase of 52,900 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 4.54%. The inventory of the urea port sample is 496,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 35.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%, and the operating rate of melamine is 56.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% [1] - Policy: The fourth batch of quotas in China is expected to be mainly distributed to production enterprises, especially those using natural gas as raw materials, similar to the second - batch quota recipients. The total quantity is estimated to be 500,000 - 600,000 tons, with a low proportion for trading enterprises. The specific distribution time is expected to be around the National Day [1] - Economy: The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, an upward adjustment of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast in June this year; the global economic growth rate in 2026 will slow down to 2.9%, the same as the June forecast [1] Market Logic - The short - term urea price will oscillate at a low level due to the increase in domestic urea start - up, off - season agriculture, slow - rising industrial demand, and inventory accumulation in upstream factories [1] Trading Strategy - Traders should hold a light position or be out of the market approaching the holiday [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical sector (specifically bottle chips) is "Oscillating weakly" [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price of bottle chips is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, following the raw material end. The reference range for the main contract is 5700 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The futures price of bottle chips PR2511 dropped 60 yuan to 5738 yuan/ton in the overnight session on Monday. The position of the main contract was 18,600 lots, a decrease of 1547 lots. The price of water - grade bottle chips in the East China market remained stable at 5780 yuan/ton, and in the South China market at 5860 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - Supply and cost - profit: The domestic polyester bottle chip production was 323,500 tons, a decrease of 3900 tons from the previous week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 70.1%, a decrease of 1.5%. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5337 yuan, a decrease of 1.5%. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 189 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton from the previous week [3] - In August 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 520,700 tons, a decrease of 58,800 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 4.3414 million tons [3] - OPEC+ plans to continue the production - increasing pace in November, and the crude oil exports from the Kurdish region of Iraq have resumed, leading to a decline in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures contract 11 dropped 2.27 dollars/barrel to 63.45 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 3.45%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 11 dropped 2.16 dollars/barrel to 67.97 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 3.08%. The China INE crude oil futures contract 2511 rose 5.4 to 494.5 yuan/ton, and then dropped 14.2 to 480.3 yuan/ton in the overnight session [3] - The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast in June this year; the global economic growth rate in 2026 will slow down to 2.9%, the same as the June forecast [3] Market Logic - Affected by the typhoon weather in South China, the supply of bottle chips decreased slightly this week. The downstream market made rigid restocking purchases, and the market was cautious about the future demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased in August. With the sharp decline in overnight crude oil prices, the short - term price of bottle chips will oscillate weakly following the raw material end [3] Trading Strategy - As the holiday approaches, investors are advised to hold an empty position or use the option double - buy strategy to bet on increased volatility [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position for IF, IH, IC, and IM in stock index futures [1]. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the market style shifted, with the brokerage sector surging and driving up the major indices of the two markets. After a period of oscillation and digestion since September, the market center is expected to rise further in October. In the fourth quarter, the A-share market is expected to gradually rise in wide - range oscillations [1][2]. - Most securities firms are optimistic about the post - holiday market and suggest 'holding stocks during the holiday'. The underlying logic supporting the market rally remains unchanged [1][2]. - China has become the preferred market for stock investment, and international capital is actively increasing its positions in China's technology sector [2]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, the brokerage sector soared, leading to an increase in the major indices of the two markets. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.16 trillion yuan, with little change. The CSI 300 index closed at 4620 points, up 70 points or 1.54%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2973 points, up 32 points or 1.09%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7350 points, up 109 points or 1.51%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7497 points, up 100 points or 1.36% [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, those with the highest gains were the Securities ETF Leader, Battery ETF, New Energy Vehicle ETF, Non - ferrous Metals ETF, and Mining ETF, while those with the highest losses were the Coal ETF, Bank ETF, and Energy ETF. Among the sector indices of the two markets, the leading gainers were the Energy Metals, Household Appliance Parts, Securities, Battery, and Industrial Metals indices, and the leading losers were the Education and Training, Coal Mining, E - commerce, Cultural and Entertainment Supplies, and Forestry indices [1]. - Net inflows of funds into the stock index futures of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were 9.5 billion, 4 billion, 3.3 billion, and 3.3 billion yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - The Political Bureau meeting studied major issues in formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan, emphasizing high - quality development, new development concepts, and the development of new - quality productivity, as well as comprehensive deep - seated reforms and high - level opening - up [1]. - The 'Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Non - ferrous Metals Industry' was issued. From 2025 to 2026, the average annual growth of the added value of the non - ferrous metals industry is about 5%, and the output of recycled metals will exceed 20 million tons. An 'Artificial Intelligence + Non - ferrous Metals' campaign will be carried out, and important non - ferrous metal futures trading varieties and financial derivatives will be enriched [1]. - Many brokerage analysts issued investment strategies for the fourth - quarter A - share market, expecting the market to gradually rise in wide - range oscillations in the fourth quarter under the conditions of sufficient liquidity, economic recovery, and policy support, and suggesting focusing on the technology growth theme [1]. - Most securities firms are optimistic about the post - holiday market and recommend 'holding stocks during the holiday'. They believe that although some funds may be cautious before the holiday, the underlying logic of the market rally remains unchanged [1][2]. - Huang Renxun, the founder of NVIDIA, called on the US government to relax export restrictions to China, stating that China is rapidly developing in the chip manufacturing field and that competition in the Chinese market is in the interests of both China and the US [1]. - The AI computing power revolution has restructured the supply and demand of the memory chip industry. Samsung Electronics raised the prices of LPDDR4X, LPDDR5, and LPDDR5X memory products by 30%, NAND flash prices increased by 5% - 10%, and Micron Technology notified customers of a 20% - 30% price increase [2]. - The strong demand for silver mainly comes from the industrial sector, especially in photovoltaic power generation, power grid upgrading, and automotive electronics. The investment demand for silver has also significantly recovered, with the silver ETF having a cumulative net inflow of over 95 million ounces in the first half of the year, exceeding the total of last year, and the total position reaching about 1.13 billion ounces, approaching the historical peak again [2]. - The price of London gold exceeded $3800. According to Bank of America data, $5.6 billion flowed into the gold market last week, and the inflow in the past four weeks reached a record of $17.6 billion. The World Gold Council said that risks from the US are the main driving force for the recent rise in gold prices [2]. - BofA strategist Michael Hartnett pointed out that the credit spreads of technology stocks are at multi - year lows, indicating that the rally of AI - driven technology stocks is not in a dangerous state [2]. Market Logic - The market style shifted on Monday, with the brokerage sector soaring and driving up the major indices. Most securities firms are optimistic about the post - holiday market, and investors' optimism is rising. China has become the preferred market for stock investment [1][2]. Future Market Outlook - In the fourth quarter, the A - share market is expected to gradually rise in wide - range oscillations under the conditions of sufficient liquidity, economic recovery, and policy support. After the holiday, the market is expected to reach a new level, and long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index [1][2]. Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: After the holiday, the market is expected to rise. Under the style shift, long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index. Long positions in stock indices can be increased on the last trading day before the holiday [2]. - Stock index option trading: Buy out - of - the - money long - term call options for stock index options [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall corn production in Heilongjiang this year is slightly higher than last year but lower than 2023. The grain quality is better, especially with a high bulk density. The new - grain price is still weak. [13][12] - In the short - term (before November), the corn market is bearish; in the medium - term, the downside is limited, and there is a strong willingness to build inventories at 1900 - 1950 yuan/ton after drying. In the long - term, the upside is not optimistic due to the pending release of policy grain sources. Overall, the corn price is expected to be relatively stable, and policy guidance is crucial. [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs New Season Production Situation - **Sown Area**: The overall sown area in Heilongjiang decreased slightly year - on - year, with a 4% decline in the eastern region and some local areas having stable or increased areas. [14] - **Yield per Unit**: Excluding a small number of drought - affected plots, most areas saw an increase in yield per unit. In eastern Heilongjiang, the yield per unit was mostly 12 - 13 tons/ha this year, compared to 11 - 12 tons/ha last year. [14] - **Grain Quality**: The overall grain quality is better than last year, with a high bulk density (generally 710 - 720), and in Baoquanling, the bulk density is 740 - 750 with low toxin levels. [12] - **Production**: Slightly higher than last year but lower than 2023. [13] - **Planting Cost**: In eastern Heilongjiang, the average land rent this year is 12,000 yuan/ha, down from 13,000 yuan/ha last year. The total cost is about 18,000 yuan/ha, corresponding to a wet - grain price of 0.6 - 0.75 yuan/jin and a dried - grain price of 1520 - 1900 yuan/ton. [16] - **Opening Price**: The opening price of processing enterprises showed a high - to - low trend. The price of deep - processing enterprises dropped from 0.85 yuan/jin to 0.79 yuan/jin by September 24, and the overall new - grain price is still weak. [17] - **Grain - Selling and Acquisition Emotions**: Some farmers are eager to sell due to high temperatures, while traders and processors are not in a hurry to buy. Some farmers will hold back if the price is below 0.8 yuan/jin and will sell in December to repay loans. Harvesting will start comprehensively during the National Day holiday. [18] - **Answers to Questions**: Drought has no impact on production; the impact of increased production on prices is limited; the market previously traded the planting - cost - based port price at 2050 - 2150 yuan/ton; the bottom price of wet grain is expected to be 0.75 yuan/jin, corresponding to a port price of 2100 - 2150 yuan/ton. [23][22] Trade and Downstream Situation - **Market Outlook**: Short - term (before November) bearish; medium - term, limited downside with support at 1900 - 1950 yuan/ton after drying; long - term, limited upside due to policy grain sources. The overall price is expected to be stable, and policy guidance is key. [24] - **Profit and Development Direction of the Processing Industry**: The processing profit of the corn deep - processing industry has been poor this year, with starch processing at a near - break - even point and alcohol in continuous loss. The future development direction is to vertically expand the industrial chain, especially focusing on amino - acid products. [25] - **Inventory - Building Plan and Rhythm**: Short - term, passive inventory building; medium - term, increase inventory building when the price approaches the planting cost. Traders are more positive, while enterprises are more cautious and focus on the impact of storage policies. [26] - **Actual Use of Futures**: The corn basis - point pricing model is widely used but needs improvement. Corn delivery warehouses are more proficient in using futures tools, and large enterprises are exploring hedging services. Currently, the corn futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and participation will resume when the market provides an opportunity. [27] Research Thinking - **Macro - Level**: Focus on policy - regulation directions and intensities, such as policy storage, policy - grain auctions, and import policies. [29] - **Industry - Level**: Consider the transmission of industrial profits, inventory cycles (passive inventory building), and expectations, behaviors, and results. [29] - **Supply - Demand Rhythm**: Pay attention to the rhythm of grain selling, inventory building, port collection, and futures - spot trading. [30]

Group 1: Core Information - As of September 27, the coking coal inventory at Ganqimao Port was 2.94 million tons, with a continuous accumulation of 0.16 million tons for four consecutive weeks [3] - The average daily vehicle throughput in August was 1,085 vehicles per day, and after entering September, the number of customs - cleared vehicles increased significantly, with the average monthly customs clearance rising to 1,290 vehicles per day [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bottle chip in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the impact of typhoon weather in South China, the supply of bottle chips decreased slightly this week. Downstream markets made rigid restocking purchases, but the market was cautious about future demand expectations. The export volume of bottle chips decreased in August. With the continuous rebound of crude oil prices under geopolitical conflicts, the short - term price of bottle chips will fluctuate following the raw material end. The reference range for the main contract is 5750 - 6000 yuan/ton. Near the holiday, it is recommended to hold an empty position or a light long - position in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Review - On the night of Friday, the futures price of bottle chip PR2511 rose by 2 yuan to 5820 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract was 27,700 lots, a decrease of 1185 lots. The price of water - grade bottle chips in the East China market remained stable at 5780 yuan/ton, and the price of bottle chips in the South China market remained stable at 5860 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - In terms of supply, cost, and profit, the domestic polyester bottle chip production was 323,500 tons, a decrease of 3900 tons compared with the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 70.1%, a decrease of 1.5% compared with the previous week. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5337 yuan, a decrease of 1.5%. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 189 yuan/ton, a increase of 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [1] - In August 2025, China exported 520,700 tons of polyester bottle chips, a decrease of 58,800 tons compared with the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 4.3414 million tons [1] - The intensity of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has recently increased, and the market is worried about the intensification of potential supply risks, leading to a rise in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures contract 11 rose by 0.74 dollars to 65.72 dollars/barrel, a increase of 1.14% compared with the previous week. The ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 11 rose by 0.71 dollars to 70.13 dollars/barrel, a increase of 1.02% compared with the previous week. The China INE crude oil futures contract 2511 rose by 0.2 to 489.1 yuan/ton, and rose by 5.9 to 495 yuan/ton at night [1] - The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared with the forecast in June this year; the global economic growth rate will slow down to 2.9% in 2026, the same as the forecast in June [1] Market Logic - Affected by the typhoon in South China, the supply of bottle chips decreased slightly this week. Downstream markets made rigid restocking purchases, but the market was cautious about future demand expectations. The export volume of bottle chips decreased in August. With the continuous rebound of crude oil prices under geopolitical conflicts, the short - term price of bottle chips will fluctuate following the raw material end [1] Trading Strategy - Near the holiday, it is recommended to hold an empty position or a light long - position in the short term [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - IF (Flat), IH (Flat), IC (Weak), IM (Weak) for stock index futures in the macro and financial sector [1] 2. Core View - The stock market adjusted on Friday with some funds exiting before the long - holiday. The box - shaped market of stock indices remains unchanged, and defense is the main strategy. For futures trading, long positions in stock index futures should be mainly configured with the CSI 300 index. For stock index options trading, it is advisable to wait and see as the market is in a wide - range shock period before the holiday [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, the major stock indices in the two markets adjusted oscillatingly, with trading volume decreasing. The CSI 300 index closed at 4550 points, down 43 points (-0.95%); the SSE 50 index closed at 2941 points, down 11 points (-0.40%); the CSI 500 index closed at 7240 points, down 100 points (-1.37%); the CSI 1000 index closed at 7397 points, down 108 points (-1.45%). The top - rising ETFs were real - estate ETF, power ETF, military - leading ETF, green - power ETF, and agriculture and livestock ETF, while the top - falling ones were game ETF, data ETF, and 5G ETF. Among the sector indices, the top - rising ones were chemical fiber, forestry, wind - power equipment, white - goods, and aviation - equipment indices, and the top - falling ones were consumer electronics, industrial Internet, components, cloud services, and game indices. The settled funds of CSI 1000 and SSE 50 index futures had net inflows of 2400 million and 100 million yuan respectively [1] 3.2 Important Information - By the end of August, China's public - fund total scale exceeded 36 trillion yuan, hitting a record high for the fifth time this year. The scale of equity funds reached 5.55 trillion yuan, increasing by over 630 billion yuan, and the scale of hybrid funds increased by over 330 billion yuan [1] - The AI investment - advisor market scale is expected to soar from $61.75 billion in 2023 to nearly $471 billion in 2029, with an increase of over 600%. About 10% of retail investors have used chatbots for stock selection, and half of them hold an open attitude. The investment portfolio selected by ChatGPT has a return rate of up to 55%, far exceeding that of professional funds [1] - The founder of Yushu Technology said that the company's robot algorithm has been iterated several times this year, and a 1.8 - meter - tall humanoid robot is expected to be released in the second half of the year. The average growth rate of domestic intelligent - robot related enterprises in the first half of this year was 50% - 100% [1] - JPMorgan believes that driven by the huge demand for high - performance memory in AI computing, the DRAM market is entering a "once - in - a - lifetime four - year pricing up - cycle" from 2024 to 2027 [1] - Xiaomi founder Lei Jun emphasized that Xiaomi is transforming from an Internet company to a hardcore technology company. It will invest 2000 billion yuan in R & D in the next five years [1] - Meta announced the integration of the AI video - creation platform Vibes into the Meta AI app, allowing users to create, discover, and share short - video content [2] - OpenAI released a new benchmark test, showing that its GPT - 5 model and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.1 are "close to the work quality of industry experts" [2] - Tesla's "true out - of - the - box process 2.0" patent has been approved, which can shorten the production cycle to about 10 seconds, with a car coming off the production line every 5 seconds and significantly reducing production costs [2] - Costco's profit and revenue in the last fiscal quarter both exceeded expectations, reflecting the resilience of the warehouse - membership retail model [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The major stock indices adjusted on Friday with some funds exiting before the long - holiday. The scale of equity and hybrid funds increased in August due to the rising stock market. International capital is actively increasing positions in China's technology sector, believing that China has global competitiveness in AI, robotics, and biotechnology. According to a HSBC survey, investors' optimism has risen, and China has become the preferred stock - investment market [2] 3.4 Market Outlook - The major stock indices adjusted on Friday with some funds exiting before the long - holiday. The scale of equity and hybrid funds increased in August due to the rising stock market. Morgan Stanley expects that Alibaba Cloud will add over 3 GW of data - center capacity annually from 2026 to 2032, bringing strong growth to infrastructure suppliers. International capital is increasing positions in China's technology sector. The semiconductor equipment industry remains highly prosperous. Attention should be paid to whether there will be more profit - taking funds flowing out on Monday. The box - shaped market of stock indices remains unchanged, and defense is the main strategy. Long positions in stock index futures should be mainly configured with the CSI 300 index [2] 3.5 Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, the box - shaped market of stock indices remains unchanged, and long positions in stock index futures should be mainly configured with the CSI 300 index, as large - financial stocks in the CSI 300 index have fully corrected, and the technology sector remains highly prosperous [2] - For stock index options trading, it is advisable to wait and see as the market is in a wide - range shock period before the holiday [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Corn: The price is expected to explore the planting cost range, and there are opportunities for low - long positions. Maintain an interval trading idea in the medium - and long - term [4][5][6]. - Pig: The downward space of pig prices is limited, and short positions should enter the profit - taking range. Near - month contracts operate based on supply - demand logic, while far - month contracts focus on the expected difference of sow de - capacity [10][11][12]. - Egg: The spot price has fallen as expected, and the short - selling idea remains unchanged. Before large - scale concentrated chicken culling, maintain the short - selling strategy [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn - **Important Information** - On the 26th, the north - south port prices were stable in the north and strong in the south, and the purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises continued to decline in the northeast and rose in the north [4]. - As of the 26th, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the wheat - corn price difference was positive and continued to expand [4]. - On the 26th, the corn auction sales and procurement transactions of CGC were held. The planned sales volume was 371 tons and all were sold, while the planned procurement volume was 11,800 tons with a transaction rate of 30% [5]. - As of the 39th week of 2025, the grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased month - on - month and year - on - year, with a significant increase in corn inventory [5]. - **Market Logic** - Short - term: The opening price of new grain in the northeast has dropped from a high level. The lower support of the futures price is the port price range of the new season's corn planting cost, and the upper pressure is the wheat - corn price difference [5]. - Medium - term: Conduct band trading around the new season's corn drive, and maintain a wide - range trading idea [5]. - Long - term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost, and focus on policy orientation [5]. - **Trading Strategy** - Maintain the interval trading idea in the medium - and long - term. Pay attention to the low - long opportunities of the band. The support levels of the 2511 and 2601 contracts are 2100 - 2130 and 2100 - 2120 respectively, and long positions can be held [6]. Pig - **Important Information** - On the 27th, the national average price of live pigs decreased slightly, and it is expected to be stable with a slight increase on the 28th [10]. - In July 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million, and the number of sows culled in large - scale pig farms increased month - on - month [10]. - The price difference between fat and standard pigs narrowed, the average weekly slaughter weight decreased, and the number of futures warehouse receipts decreased [14]. - The central reserve frozen pork will be rotated out on the 28th [14]. - **Market Logic** - Short - term: The temporary supply - demand imbalance suppresses the pig price [11]. - Medium - term: The expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year restricts the rise of pig prices [11]. - Long - term: The number of fertile sows is still higher than the normal level, and the pig production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [11]. - **Trading Strategy** - Near - month contracts operate based on supply - demand logic, and short positions should enter the profit - taking range and be gradually closed. Far - month contracts focus on the expected difference of sow de - capacity [12]. - The support levels of the 2511, 2601, 2603, 2605, and 2607 contracts are 12300 - 12500, 12800 - 13000, 12500, 12900 - 13000, and 13500 - 13600 respectively [12]. Egg - **Important Information** - On the 26th, the egg prices were weakly stable, and the downstream sales slowed down with an increase in inventory [17]. - The price of culled hens decreased, and the weekly culling age increased [17]. - In August, the number of laying hens in stock increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the theoretical estimated value in September decreased month - on - month [17]. - **Market Logic** - Medium - and short - term: As the festival approaches, the stocking intensity weakens, the downstream sales slow down, and the inventory rises, putting pressure on egg prices [17]. - Long - term: Focus on the scale of hen culling. The supply pressure may be realized again in the fourth quarter [17]. - **Trading Strategy** - Before large - scale concentrated chicken culling, maintain the short - selling idea, and hold previous short positions. The pressure levels of the 2511, 2512, 2601, and 2602 contracts are 3090 - 3100, 3200, 3370 - 3380, and 3120 - 3140 respectively. Breeding enterprises can also pay attention to the selling - hedging opportunities of the 2607 and 2608 contracts to lock in breeding profits [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market remains volatile, and treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term. 8 - month industrial profit turned positive due to a low base, and some counter - cyclical adjustment policies may be implemented soon. The central bank will maintain ample liquidity, and positive interactions in Sino - US trade relations are beneficial for future trade talks [33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. The 30 - year treasury bond fell 0.60%, the 10 - year bond fell 0.07%, the 5 - year bond fell 0.09%, and the 2 - year bond fell 0.02% [4]. - From September 19th to September 26th, the 2 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields rose by 2 basis points, while the 5 - year and 10 - year yields remained flat [7]. - The logic of the treasury bond futures market is that the overall performance of the Chinese economy in August was lower than expected, and counter - cyclical adjustment policies may be introduced. The significant increase in industrial enterprise profits in August was due to the low base last year. The central bank will maintain liquidity, and Sino - US trade interactions are positive. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures is expected to be volatile, and the trading strategy is to conduct band operations [33][34]. Industrial Enterprise Data - From January to August, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year - on - year, reversing the downward trend since May. In August, industrial enterprise profits increased by 20.4% year - on - year, compared with a 1.5% decline in July. The increase in August was due to the low base in the same period last year [10]. - From January to August, the operating income of large - scale industrial enterprises was 89.62 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. The operating income in August increased by 1.9%, 1.0 percentage point faster than in July [10]. - From January to August, the operating income profit margin of large - scale industrial enterprises was 5.24%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1 percentage point. Different industries had different profit margins, with the mining industry having a relatively high margin but a decline compared to the previous year [13]. - At the end of August, the asset - liability ratio of large - scale industrial enterprises was 58.0%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4 percentage points. The asset - liability ratio of large - scale manufacturing enterprises was 57.4%, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 percentage points [16]. - At the end of August, the average collection period of accounts receivable of large - scale manufacturing enterprises was 71.2 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.9 days, reaching a new high since 2015 [20]. - From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of finished product inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises was 2.3%, showing a downward trend. Both China and the US have been destocking in recent months [23]. Real Estate Market - In the first quarter, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 23.6 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From April to August, there were year - on - year declines. From September 1st to 25th, the average daily trading area was 22 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 12% due to the low base last year. The year - on - year data in the fourth quarter will face challenges [26]. Labor Market - In August, the unemployment rate of 16 - 24 - year - old labor force (excluding students) in urban areas was 18.9%, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year. The unemployment rate of 25 - 29 - year - olds was 7.2%, 0.3 percentage point higher than the same period last year. The unemployment rate of 30 - 59 - year - olds was 3.9%, remaining stable compared with the previous month and the same period last year [29]. Capital Market - This week, the overnight funding rate declined. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.41%, compared with 1.46% last week. The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.69%, compared with 1.68% last week. On September 25th, the central bank conducted a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan after deducting the 300 - billion - yuan maturity, marking the seventh consecutive month of increased roll - over [31].