Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical industry is bullish [2] Group 2: Report's Core View - The methanol market faces a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations due to unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle - East, concerns about methanol export impact, rebound in crude oil prices, significant port destocking this week, expected reduction in import arrivals after mid - January, and restart plans of olefin plants. It will experience short - term wide - range and bullish oscillations, with the 05 contract reference range at 2240 - 2350. The recommended trading strategy is to hold long positions [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose by 26 yuan to 2311 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China was 2257 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 7,351 lots to 450,000 lots, while short positions decreased by 7,059 lots to 599,000 lots [2] Important Information - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate is 91.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 59.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of methanol ports in China is 1.4403 million tons, a decrease of 9,690 tons from the previous period. East China and South China both saw destocking, with inventory decreasing by 84,400 tons and 12,500 tons respectively. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample producers is 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.71% [2] - **Demand**: The signing order of northwest methanol enterprises is 46,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,800 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The olefin operating rate is 89.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 75.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.8%; the acetic acid operating rate is 76.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 67.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% [2] - **Import**: In November 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.4176 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%, and the average import price was 259.09 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06%. The largest import volume came from Saudi Arabia at 344,900 tons, with an average import price of 261.53 US dollars/ton. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 12.6969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60% [2] - **Geopolitical Situation**: On the afternoon of January 14 local time, US President Trump said when talking about the Iran situation, "We will wait and see how the situation develops." The US government received "very positive statements from Iran", but the possibility of military action was not ruled out [2] Market Logic - Due to unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle - East and concerns about methanol export impact, along with the rebound in crude oil prices, significant port destocking this week, expected reduction in import arrivals after mid - January, and restart plans of olefin plants, the methanol market faces weak current reality but strong future expectations, and will experience short - term wide - range and bullish oscillations [2] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions [2]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘瓶片主力价格下跌 6 元至 6138 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6150 元/吨 （+50），华南瓶片价格 6220 元/吨（+70）。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 828 手至 6.46 万手，空头持仓增加 624 手至 6.69 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 33.47 万吨，环比-0.06 万吨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 震 荡 偏 | 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 72.27%，环比-1.01；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5592 元， 环比-31 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-166 元/吨，环比+15 元/吨。 2、2025 年 11 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 53.3 万吨，较上月增加 0.99 万吨。2025 年累计 出口量 586.5 万吨。 3、2025 年 12 月我国聚酯瓶片行业产量为 147.89 万吨，环比增加 3.48%。本月产能 利用率为 73.12%，环比提升 0.1 个百分点 ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 15 日星期四 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三尿素主力合约 2605 价格上涨 36 元至 1814 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格上涨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 10 加 少 | 元至 1750 元/吨。持仓方面， ...

Morning session notice 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 15 日星期四 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 铁矿: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周三铁矿收涨。夜盘收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、月 14 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market is strong. Due to the US inflation data in December being lower than expected, and continuous geopolitical and economic uncertainties driving the safe - haven demand, gold and silver continue to be in a strong position. The short - term fluctuations of precious metals are intensifying, and it is recommended that long - position holders continue to hold their positions while paying attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - COMEX gold futures rose 0.76% to $4,633.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 7.93% to $93.19 per ounce. Shanghai gold rose 0.46% to 1,039.72 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 4.40% to 23,270.0 yuan per kilogram [1]. 3.2. Important Information - As of January 14th, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 1,074.23 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 78.94 tons from the previous day to 16,242.22 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 5%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 95%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 26%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 72.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.2% [1]. - US retail sales in November increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding the expected 0.5%. The producer price index in November increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with the forecast, and increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than the forecast of 2.7% [1]. - On January 14th, a US official said that due to the escalating tensions in the Middle East, the US was evacuating some personnel from major US military bases as a preventive measure. Some US military personnel stationed at the Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar were advised to evacuate before the evening of the 14th. The US embassy in Qatar had not responded to this news, and many countries urged their citizens to leave Iran [1]. - On January 14th, the US Supreme Court did not rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs. The latest Fed Beige Book showed that the economy is moderately warming up, employment is stable, and tariff costs are starting to be passed on to consumers [1]. 3.3. Market Logic - The US retail sales in November increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding the expected 0.5%. The CPI data in December showed stable inflation, and the core CPI was slightly lower than the market expectation. The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is almost zero. The CME changed the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts on January 12th, which may trigger frequent margin calls during high - price or high - volatility periods. The weakening of the US dollar index on January 14th, along with safe - haven demand, led to the rise of COMEX gold and silver [1][2]. 3.4. Trading Strategy - The short - term fluctuations of precious metals are intensifying. Long - position holders are advised to continue holding their positions and pay attention to risk control [2].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1196.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.46%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1738.5，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.37%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1193.5， 环比日盘收盘下跌 0.25%。焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1750.0，环比日盘收盘上涨 0.66%。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | 区间震荡 | 1、财政部会同有关部门召开会议，布置推进财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策工作。会 议要求各级财政部门要会同相关部门和经办机构完整准确把握财政金融协同促内需一 揽子政策要求，简化流程环节，强化执行跟踪，切实推动政策落地见效。 2、美国白宫宣布，从 1 月 15 日起对部分进口半导体、半导体制造设备和衍生品加征 25% 的进口从价关税。 | | | 焦炭 | | 3、本周，Mysteel 统计 31 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the production and sales of automobiles reached a record high with a high growth rate of about 10%. In 2026, production and sales are expected to continue to increase, but the growth rate will slow down significantly. In the short term, steel supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory rises [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday night session, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher [1] Important Information - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales exceeded 16 million, and domestic new car sales accounted for over 50%. Automobile exports exceeded 7 million, and new energy vehicle exports were 2.615 million, doubling year-on-year [1] - In December 2025, China exported 536 ships; from January to December, the cumulative export was 6,690 ships, a year-on-year increase of 16.2% [1] - In December 2025, China exported 994,000 automobiles; from January to December, the cumulative export was 8.324 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 30.0% [1] - From 2014 to 2024, the indirect steel exports of 74 countries increased from 325 million tons to 410 million tons, an increase of 26%. In 2024, the indirect steel trade volume was equivalent to 93% of the direct export volume [1] Market Logic - In 2025, automobile production and sales reached a new high with a high growth rate of about 10%. In 2026, production and sales are expected to continue to increase, but the growth rate will slow down significantly. In the short term, steel supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory rises [1] Trading Strategy - In the short term, it is volatile. The support level for the rebar main contract is 3,000, and the resistance level is 3,200 [1]

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 15 日星期四 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周三国债期货主力合约开盘多数大致平开，早盘多窄幅波动，午后受消息影响，股 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 指回落，期债有所上涨，截至收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 下跌 | 0.0 ...

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏强，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨幅0.26%，收于228 | | | | | 2元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价小幅上涨。东北地区企业主流 | | | | | 收购价2168元/吨，较前一日涨1元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2255元/吨，较前一 | | | | | 日涨2元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日南北港口价格稳定。锦州港15%水二等玉米收购价 | | | | | 2280-2290元/吨，较前一日持平；蛇口港玉米成交价2430元/吨，较前一日涨持平 | | | | | 。 | | | | | 3、大商所数据显示，截至1月14日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增614手，共计3 | | | | | 8762手。 | | | 玉米 | 区间 | 4、1月14日，中储粮公司举行玉米竞价销售交易，计划销售玉米量6.6万吨，成交 | ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 15 日星期四 早盘提示 ddddddddddddddddddddddddddd 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日 SR605 合约收盘价 5299 元/吨，日涨幅 0.88%，夜盘收 5280 元/吨；SR609 合约 收盘价 5304 元/吨，日涨幅 0.72%，夜盘收 5291 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1 广西白糖现货成交价为 5320 元/吨，上涨 16 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区间 | | | | | 5320~5380 元/吨，部分上调 10~20 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 5190~5240 元/吨，上 | | | | | 调 10 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5750~5900 ...