证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 钢矿进入平台整理期 2026年1月16日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：纪晓云 联系方式：010-56711796 期货从业资格证号：F3066027 期货交易咨询号：Z0011402 钢矿观点 钢材：本期钢材产量、库存均下降，其中螺纹产量和库存微降，热卷产量增加，库存微降。表需环比增加。 项目需求保持稳定，市场整体成交尚可，商家心态较好，对后市预期较为看好。总体看，基本面供需矛盾 不突出。宏观影响偏中性。预计盘面继续震荡走势。 铁矿石：本期日均铁水产量 228.01万吨，环比上周减少1.49万吨，同比去年增加3.53万吨，结束三连增。 本期铁矿到港总量增加，发运季节性下降。国内铁矿产量增加，港口进口铁矿库存持续累库。综合判断， 预计铁矿后期震荡走势。 重要资讯 1、工信部部长李乐成：2026年将着重抓好"稳""扩""创""增"四方面工作，保持工业经济平稳增长。 2、据国际船舶网跟踪：2026年1月5日至2026年1月11日，全球船厂共接获33+8艘新船订单。其中中国船厂接获26+8艘新船订单； 韩国船厂接获7艘新船订单。 3、1月15日，央行副行 ...

市场快讯 -- 政策连续降温情绪,碳酸锂下跌回补缺口 > 碳酸锂 2026年1月16日 数据来源:wind. 留宝资讯,公开信息,格林大华期货 研究员:王琛 从业资格 F0276812 交易咨询:Z0021310 联系方式:wangchen@greendh.com 在任則情况下,求公司不知張吉中的任何的音对任何技术所顾正任何形式的担保,按受者据此投资,按资网除 ● 截止1月16日收盘,碳酸锂主力合约收盘价146200元/吨跌 停,回补周初跳涨缺口,日内减仓27809手。 > 本周前期碳酸锂在电池出口增值税逐步取消退税政策的需 求抢跑预期下,大幅上涨,最高触及17万元/吨。1月13、 14日,广期所连续两天发布公告,上调碳酸锂合约交易手 续费以及限制持仓量。1月14日,沪深北三大交易所同步 宣布,将融资买入最低保证金比例由80%上调至100%,自 1月19日起施行。连续发布的政策为近期股市、商品市场 持续高涨的情绪进行了降温,碳酸锂随需求预期"抢跑" 的溢价部分开始回调。今日盘中再传交易所有问询动作, 加速本次碳酸锂回调速度。 ● 基本面来看,根据富宝数据,截止2026年1月15日,当周碳 酸锂产量2.25万吨 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Apple futures' main contract opened with a downward gap and weakened, with a decline exceeding 2%. Despite the post - New Year cold - storage weekly de - stocking volume exceeding 100,000 tons, the terminal consumption recovery was weaker than expected. The apple futures price still has upward drivers due to factors such as the approaching Spring Festival consumption peak and the increasing cost of warehouse receipt registration, but the de - stocking rhythm of general goods and changes in the mainstream transaction price are key variables affecting the market trend [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Situation - After the new - season apples were harvested in November 2025, the apple futures price soared to 10,000 yuan/ton due to reduced production and a higher proportion of low - quality fruits. However, the concentrated listing of seasonal fruits such as southern citrus and imported cherries diverted apple consumption, resulting in a significant lag in the market de - stocking progress compared to the same period in previous years [3] Regional Market Conditions - In the Qixia market, the trading of stored Fuji apples remained sluggish, with cold - storage shipments mainly from merchants' self - stored sources, few transactions of farmers' apples, slow sales, and the market in a weak consolidation state. In the Luochuan area, the trading atmosphere of stored Fuji apples was average, with a slight increase in merchants' packaging and shipping volume but mainly for immediate pick - up, and limited transactions of farmers' apples. In the Jingning area, the trading was relatively stable, with merchants preferentially handling their self - stored sources, few transactions of farmers' apples, and sporadic transactions mainly for high - quality goods [4] Overall Market Structure - Currently, the overall supply of cold - storage apples is sufficient, but there is a prominent structural contradiction: the market circulation volume of high - quality apples is limited, while the sales progress of low - quality apples is relatively slow. With the start of Spring Festival stocking demand, the competition for high - quality fruit sources has intensified, further highlighting the scarcity of good goods and increasing the cost of warehouse receipt registration [5] Operational Suggestions - Try to go long when the main 05 contract is below 9,500 yuan/ton. For options, buy AP05 - C - 9600 and sell AP05 - P - 9000 [5]

联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四国债期货主力合约开盘多数高开，多数表现为早盘震荡上行，午后横向波动， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 临近尾盘受消息影响快速冲高但很快回落，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 下跌 0.08%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.11%，5 年期 TF2603 上涨 0.09%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.04%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周四央行开展了 1793 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 99 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日合计净投放 1694 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周四银行间资金市场隔夜利率持平，DR001 全天加权平均为 1.37%， | | | | | 上一交易日加权平均 1.39%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.50%，上一交易日加权平均 | | | | | 1.57%。 | | | | TL、T、 TF、TS | 3、现券市场：周 ...

| 铂金在内的关键矿产征收全面关税，推动白银价格在周四一度较大幅度回撤。1 | 月 | 15 | 日美元指数最终收涨 | 0.28%，报 | 99.35。1 | 月 | 15 | 日全天 | COMEX | 黄金探底回升，COMEX | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 白银大幅回撤后、收复多数失地。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 【交易策略】 | | | | | | | | | | | | 贵金属短线波动加剧，多头继续持仓，注意控制风险。 | | | | | | | | | | | 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报 ...

早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 16 日星期五 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 钢材: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周四螺纹收跌热卷持平。夜盘螺纹收平热卷收涨。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | 1、月 | 15 | 日，从国家电网公司获悉，"十五五"期间，国家电网公司固定资产投资 | 预计达到 | 4 | 万亿元，较"十四五"投资增长 | 40%，以扩大有效投资带动新型电力系 | | | | | 统产业链供应链高质量发展。 | 2、Mysteel | 调研：12 | 月山东制造业产废量保持稳定 | 部分企业有增加趋势。 | | | | | | | 3、1 | 月 | 14 | 日，工业和信息化部装 ...

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 16 日星期五 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四夜盘主力合约 2605 期货价格下跌 39 元至 2245 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 价格下跌 17 元至 2240 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 6557 手至 44.3 万手，空头 持仓增加 14197 手至 61.3 万手。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 震荡偏 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 91.1%，环比-0.3%。海外甲醇开工率 59.4%，环比+1.8%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 144.03 万吨，较上一期数据减少 9.69 吨。 其中，华东地区去库，库存减少 8.44 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 1.25 万吨。 中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 45.09 万吨，较上期微增 0.32 万吨，环比增 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (pure benzene) is "oscillating bearish" [1] Report's Core View - The Middle - East geopolitical situation has eased, and crude oil prices have dropped significantly. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to increase, while the downstream demand side's operating rates have improved. In the short - term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate widely, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5460 - 5750 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the port arrival volume and future US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market transaction prices. It is recommended to close out long positions at a profit [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday night, the price of the main futures contract BZ2603 dropped by 57 yuan to 5620 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream East China region was 5535 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan month - on - month), and the spot price in Shandong was 5462 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan month - on - month). In terms of positions, the number of long positions increased by 209 to 20,700, and the number of short positions increased by 130 to 26,400 [1] Important Information - Supply: In December, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In November, the pure benzene import volume was 459,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4%. According to customs statistics, in November 2025, China's monthly pure benzene import volume was 459,624.998 tons, the cumulative import volume was 5,071,144.069 tons, the monthly import value was 323.069632 million US dollars, and the monthly average import price was 702.90 US dollars/ton. The import volume decreased by 7.48% month - on - month, increased by 5.93% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared with the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 324,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous inventory of 318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.89%; compared with the inventory of 174,300 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 149,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.89%. From January 5th to January 11th, the incompletely - counted arrival volume was about 36,000 tons, and the pick - up volume was about 30,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of styrene was 70.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%; the operating rate of phenol was 89%, a month - on - month increase of 4%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 77.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2.9%; the operating rate of aniline was 73.2%, a month - on - month increase of 11.9%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 65.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%. Caprolactam plants have started self - disciplined production cuts, and there is an expected reduction in monthly pure benzene demand from December to January. The second line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam has been put into production [1] - International Oil Prices: The situation in Iran has shown signs of temporary easing, and the market expects the crude oil supply from Venezuela to increase in the future, leading to a decline in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract dropped by 2.83 US dollars/barrel to 59.19 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 4.56%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract dropped by 2.76 US dollars/barrel to 63.76 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 4.15%. The price of China's INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose by 2.7 to 452.4 yuan/barrel, and then dropped by 10.6 to 441.8 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - The Middle - East geopolitical situation has eased, and crude oil prices have dropped significantly. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to increase, while the downstream demand side's operating rates have improved. In the short - term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate widely, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5460 - 5750 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the port arrival volume and future US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market transaction prices [1] Trading Strategy - Close out long positions at a profit [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "volatile" [1]. - The investment rating for the rubber - related sector in the energy and chemical industry is "volatile" for natural rubber, 20 - numbered rubber, and synthetic rubber [5]. Report's Core View - For the sugar market, both the international and domestic sugar markets are expected to be volatile. The international sugar market lacks new information and is mainly focused on the northern hemisphere's production. The domestic sugar market has limited trading information, and the price may be range - bound without new driving forces [1]. - For the rubber market, the natural rubber market has a mixed fundamental situation with strong overseas raw material prices but increasing domestic inventory. The synthetic rubber market is expected to be strongly volatile, affected by the strong upstream but sufficient domestic spot supply [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar in the Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock Industry Market Review - On the previous day, the closing price of SR605 contract was 5280 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.36%, and the night - session closing price was 5275 yuan/ton. The closing price of SR609 contract was 5291 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.25%, and the night - session closing price was 5289 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5314 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton. The price range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5320 - 5380 yuan/ton, with some prices down 10 yuan/ton. The price range of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5190 - 5230 yuan/ton, with some prices down 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream price range of processing sugar factories was 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - As of the first half of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 59818.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1448.9 million tons (2.36%). The ATR of sugarcane was 138.38 kg/ton, a decrease of 3.14 kg/ton compared to the same period last year. The cumulative sugar - making ratio was 50.91%, an increase of 2.72% compared to the same period last year. The cumulative ethanol production was 30.275 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.717 billion liters (5.37%). The cumulative sugar production was 4015.8 million tons, an increase of 34.3 million tons (0.86%) compared to the same period last year [1]. - As of the week ending January 6, the total open interest of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1101827 lots, an increase of 23287 lots compared to the previous week. The speculative long - position was 153060 lots, a decrease of 6484 lots compared to the previous week. The speculative short - position was 328010 lots, an increase of 3915 lots compared to the previous week. The speculative net short - position was 174950 lots, an increase of 10399 lots compared to the previous week [1]. - The number of white sugar warrants on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange on the previous day was 14126, a daily increase of 4387 [1]. Market Logic - The international sugar market has limited new information, mainly focusing on the northern hemisphere's production. The far - month supply pressure still exists, and the price may be volatile [1]. - The domestic sugar market has limited trading information. Technically, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the pressure at the 5300 integer mark can be maintained. Without new driving forces, it is difficult to have a continuous unilateral trend, and it may be range - bound in the near future [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold the long - term short position of SR605 contract and pay attention to the performance of the 5300 - 5315 pressure range. Those who have not entered the market can try short positions against the upper - pressure range. For options, consider the double - selling strategy [1]. Rubber in the Energy and Chemical Industry Market Review - As of January 15, the closing price of RU2605 contract was 15995 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.02%. The closing price of NR2603 contract was 12850 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.27%. The closing price of BR2603 contract was 12190 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.49% [5]. Important Information - The price of Thai RSS3 was 60.88 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.23. The price of field latex was 58.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.20 Thai baht/kg. The price of cup lump was 52.3 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.50 Thai baht/kg. The price of Malaysian rubber was 702 sen/kg, an increase of 9.5 sen/kg [5]. - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 56.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.98 million tons (3.62%). The bonded - area inventory was 9.35 million tons, an increase of 6.14%. The general - trade inventory was 47.47 million tons, an increase of 3.13%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points. The inbound rate of general - trade warehouses decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises this week was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [5]. - The weekly average price of Shanghai full - latex this week was 15750 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan (0.16%). The weekly average price of 20 - standard Thai rubber in the Qingdao market was 1919 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars (0.27%). The weekly average price of 20 - mixed Thai rubber in the Qingdao market was 15076 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan (0.37%) [5]. - As of January 15, 2026, the weekly capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis polybutadiene rubber industry was 79.68%, a month - on - month increase of 0.53 percentage points [5]. - The delivery price of butadiene in the central region of Shandong was 9850 - 9900 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in Jiangsu was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton [5]. - The ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 12100 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of PetroChina's BR9000 was 12100 - 12300 yuan/ton [5]. Market Logic - Natural rubber: The daily line of natural rubber closed down. Technically, the price is in a consolidation state, and attention should be paid to the pressure and support at the upper and lower limits of the range. Overseas raw material prices are strong, but the inventory in Qingdao is increasing. The short - term fundamental situation is mixed, and the overall change is limited. Recently, attention should be paid to the impact of macro - funds on the price [5]. - Synthetic rubber: The price of upstream butadiene is still strong, and the export deal rumor of domestic butadiene resources boosts the bullish sentiment. However, the current spot supply of polybutadiene rubber is sufficient. Except for the shutdown of the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical, the operating load of other polybutadiene rubber plants is at a high level. Technically, the BR futures price is still in an upward channel, and attention should be paid to the resistance near the previous high. Recently, pay attention to the impact of the overseas situation on the energy and chemical sector, and the price is expected to be strongly volatile [5]. Trading Strategy - The active RU contract should pay attention to the range of 15750 - 16400 yuan/ton; the NR contract should pay attention to the range of 12700 - 13300 yuan/ton; the BR contract should pay attention to the range of 12100 - 12600 yuan/ton. Adopt a short - term low - buying strategy [5].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 16 日星期五 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周四夜盘瓶片主力价格下跌 | 142 | 元至 | 5952 | 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 | 6060 | 元/吨 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | （-90），华南瓶片价格 | 6110 | 元/吨（-110）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 | 2475 | 手至 | 6.21 | 万手，空头持仓减少 | 2679 | ...