广大 | 投资咨询业务资格: 班监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月17日 欢迎关注微信公众号 | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | IF2506 | | 关注后续国内对冲政策情况带来修复机会,而下方 | | | 股指 | IH2506 | 国内一季度经济开局良好,指数震荡企稳 | 支撑稳定,再次破位概率极低。建议卖出前低位沪 | | | | IC2506 | | 深300在3550点附近,中证1000在5500点附近 | | | | IM2506 | | 行权价5月看跌期权 | | | | T2506 | | 单边策略上短期建议可以逢调整适当做多。基差策 | | | 国债 | TF2506 | 短期长债利率下行接近前低下行速度放缓,走势进入震荡等待 | 略上,建议参与各品种正套策略。曲线策略上建议 | | 金融 | | TS2506 TL2506 | 方向指引阶段(10债波动区间处于1.63%-1.67%) | 适当关注做陡 | | | | | | 关注美国贸易谈判进展和经济GDP等数据发布等 | | ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年4月17日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 价差 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | F期现价差 | -82.02 | -11.19 | 1.20% | 2.10% | | 期现价差 | H期现价差 | -38.50 | -12.70 | 1.20% | 0.60% | | | IC期现价差 | -16.46 | 6.07 | 58.6096 | 59.0096 | | | IM期现价差 | -232.35 | 1.28 | 15.00% | 0.40% | | | 次月-当月 | -31.60 | -9.60 | 2.40% | 10.90% | | | 季月-当月 远月-当月 | -64.60 -120.20 | -10.60 -14.60 | 0.40% 0.40% | 16.10% 13.30% | | F跨期价差 ...

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年4月17日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z00170002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1250 | 1250 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 | 1370 | 1370 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1180 | 1180 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | 1330 | 1330 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 | 1144 | 1152 | -8 | -0.69% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1181 | 1206 | -57 | -2.07% | | | 05基左 | 106 | ਰੇਲ | 8 | 8.16% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 演讲失 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | ...

| 硅铁 (SF506) | 5978 | 5686 | 292 | 5.14% | 89.90% 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅罐(SM509) | 5970 | 5806 | 164 | 2.82% | 51.70% 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | | | | | | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | 3150 | 3093 | 57 | 1.84% | 39.00% HRB40020mm:上海 | | | | | | 热卷(HC2510) | 3230 | 3205 | ટર | 0.78% | 29.80% Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | | | | | | 铁矿石 (12509) | 801 | 708 | ਰੇਤੋ | 13.11% | 65.40% 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | | | | | | 焦炭 (J2505) | 1520 | 1258 | -38 | -2.44% | 27.28% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The steel market shows a pattern of high production, high apparent demand, and low inventory, but demand is expected to weaken. In the context of Sino - US trade decoupling, long - term demand may decline. The medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose. With the approach of the May delivery, the upward elasticity of spot prices is restricted. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and pay attention to domestic loose policies. Consider the long - steel and short - ore arbitrage in the near - month contracts [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate. The daily hot metal production has risen above 2.4 million tons, but steel mill profits have slightly declined. The supply of iron ore shows a slight decline in global shipments, a significant increase in arrivals, and a continuous decline in port inventories. The terminal demand is affected by exports and infrastructure. If exports decline more than expected, inventory accumulation is likely; otherwise, the market may be in a balanced state [4]. Coke - The coke futures showed a high - opening and low - closing trend. The first - round increase in coke factory spot prices has been implemented. The supply of coke has increased, and demand has also risen with the increase in hot metal production. However, inventory is still under pressure. It is recommended to switch to the main contract in time and adopt the strategy of long - coke and short - coking coal [6]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures showed a fluctuating downward trend. The spot market is generally stable, with some signs of weakening. The supply is increasing, and demand is also rising with the increase in coke production. The overall inventory is at a high level, and there is still room for price decline. It is recommended to switch to the main contract in time and adopt the strategy of long - coke and short - coking coal [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures continued to decline. The supply reduction speed has accelerated, but the factory inventory remains high. The demand side shows an increase in hot metal production, but the profit of steel mills has declined. The export of ferrosilicon is under pressure, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly [7]. Ferromanganese - The ferromanganese futures are expected to fluctuate. The supply has slightly decreased, and demand has changed little. The manganese ore supply shows an increase in shipments and a decrease in arrivals. The inventory of manganese ore in ports has decreased. Pay attention to the centralized procurement situation [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Price and Spread - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in various regions and contracts have declined. The cost and profit of different steel - making processes have changed, with some profits increasing and some decreasing [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal production has increased by 1.5 to 240.2 (0.6% increase), while the production of five major steel products has decreased by 1.5 to 871.1 (- 0.2% decrease). The inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 29.5 to 1660.6 (- 1.7% decrease) [1]. Demand - The building materials trading volume has decreased by 1.7 to 9.4 (- 15.0% decrease), and the apparent demand for five major steel products has decreased by 19.7 to 900.5 (- 2.1% decrease) [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties have declined, and the basis of 05 contracts has also decreased. The 5 - 9 spread has increased by 1.0 to 54.0 (1.9% increase) [4]. Supply - The weekly global iron ore shipments have decreased by 14.2 to 2907.7 (- 0.5% decrease), and the weekly arrivals at 45 ports have increased by 336.8 to 2525.5 (15.4% increase) [4]. Demand - The weekly average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills has increased by 1.5 to 240.2 (0.6% increase), and the weekly average daily ore - handling volume at 45 ports has increased by 0.5 to 318.1 (0.2% increase) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory has decreased by 112.4 to 14341.02 (- 0.8% decrease), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills has decreased by 94.6 to 9077.1 (- 1.0% decrease) [4]. Coke Price and Spread - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke increased by 30 to 1360 (2.3% increase). The 05 and 09 contracts of coke decreased, and the basis increased [6]. Supply - The weekly coke production of the full - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.8, and the weekly production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.4 [6]. Demand - The weekly hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 1.5 to 240.2 (0.6% increase) [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 0.9 to 1008.4 (0.1% increase), with coking plants and steel mills reducing inventory and ports increasing inventory [6]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The price of Shanxi coking coal warehouse - receipt remained unchanged at 1145, while the price of Mongolian coking coal warehouse - receipt decreased by 10 to 1063 (- 0.9% decrease). The 05 and 09 contracts of coking coal decreased [6]. Supply - The weekly raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 5.5 to 890.8 (0.6% increase), and the weekly clean coal production increased by 1.9 to 454.2 (0.4% increase) [6]. Demand - The weekly average daily production of full - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.8, and the weekly production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.4 [6]. Inventory - The total coking coal inventory increased, with upstream mines starting to accumulate inventory. The inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 13.1 to 212.3 (- 5.8% decrease), while the inventory of coking plants and steel mills increased [6]. Ferrosilicon Price and Spread - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 74 to 5686 (- 3.0% decrease). The spot prices of some regions decreased [7]. Supply - The weekly ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.8 to 10.3 (- 7.1% decrease), and the operating rate decreased by 3.0 to 33.4 (- 8.24%) [7]. Demand - The weekly ferrosilicon demand increased by 0.1 to 2.1 (1.1% increase), and the daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 1.5 to 240.2 (0.6% increase) [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 1.5 to 9.5 (19.1% increase), and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon increased by 0.3 to 16.3 (1.6% increase) [7]. Ferromanganese Price and Spread - The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 78 to 5868 (- 1.3% decrease). The spot prices of some regions decreased [7]. Supply - The weekly ferromanganese production decreased by 0.1 to 19.2 (- 0.8% decrease), and the operating rate increased by 0.1 to 46.6 (0.2%) [7]. Demand - The weekly ferromanganese demand increased by 0.1 to 12.7 (0.14% increase), and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group decreased by 1 to 11 (- 4.3%) [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.9 to 15.8 (6.1% increase), and the average available days of ferromanganese decreased by 0.7 to 16 (- 4.2%) [7].

| 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 4月16日 | 4月15日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 825.5 | 828.5 | -3.0 | -0.36% | | | 原木2509 | 838.5 | 841.5 | -3.0 | -0.36% | | | 原木2511 | 842.5 | 846.0 | -3.5 | -0.41% | | | 7-9价差 | -13.0 | -13.0 | 0.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -4.0 | -4.5 | 0.5 | | | | 7-11价差 | -17.0 | -17.5 | 0.5 | | | | 07合约基差 | -45.5 | -48.5 | 3.0 | | | | 09合约基差 | -58.5 | -61.5 | 3.0 | | | | 11合约基差 | -62.5 | -66.0 | 3.5 | | 元/立方米 | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 740.0 | 740.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures markets, including financial futures (stock index futures, treasury bond futures), precious metals (gold, silver), shipping index, and multiple commodity futures such as non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and special commodities. It provides market conditions, news, fundamentals, and operation suggestions for each category, highlighting the impact of factors like tariffs, economic data, and supply - demand relationships on prices [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The domestic economy had a good start in Q1. The A - share market showed mixed performance, with blue - chip indices rising in the afternoon. Four major stock index futures contracts had different trends, and all were at a discount. Given the current situation, it is recommended to sell put options on the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 at low levels to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The capital market remained stable, and the bond market closed higher. Although Q1 economic data exceeded expectations, the bond market priced more on the impact of declining external demand. It is suggested to go long on treasury bond futures on dips, participate in positive basis strategies, and consider steepening the yield curve [6][7][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The sudden US tariffs on China caused market turmoil. Safe - haven funds pushed up the gold price to a new high. Gold has long - term upward drivers, and it is recommended to conduct intraday trading and sell out - of - the - money put options for profit protection. Silver is affected by economic downturn and high inventory, and its price is expected to fluctuate between 29 - 34 dollars [9][11][12]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The shipping index showed a downward trend. The current spot supply - demand pattern is cold, and it is recommended to consider going long on the over - sold contracts in June and August in the medium term [13][14][16]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It presents a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". Tariff policies increase price volatility. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract should focus on the 76000 - 77000 pressure level [17][20][22]. - **Zinc**: Tariff policies cause price fluctuations. The supply is strong, and the demand is relatively stable. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended, and the main contract should focus on the 20500 - 21500 support level [22][23][25]. - **Tin**: The macro situation is weak, and the supply side is gradually recovering. It is recommended to hold short positions and adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [25][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy has been implemented, and the price is expected to oscillate and recover. The main contract is expected to operate between 120000 - 126000 [28][29][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is still macro uncertainty, and the supply - demand game continues. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the main contract is expected to operate between 12600 - 13000 [32][33][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro sentiment has been digested, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the main contract is expected to operate between 68000 - 72000 [36][37][38]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The de - stocking of five major steel products has slowed down, and the expectation of weakening long - term demand has increased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider a long - steel and short - ore arbitrage strategy [39][40]. - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output is rising, and the port inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [41][42][43]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal in the short term [44][45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has improved slightly, but the inventory is high. It is also recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal in the short term [46][47][49]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply is decreasing rapidly, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [50][51][52]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The mainstream steel procurement has shrunk, and the inventory pressure remains. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [53][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The low domestic开机 rate boosts the basis, and US soybeans lack upward drivers. The price may face a short - term correction [56][57][58]. - **Hogs**: The secondary fattening transactions have declined, and the consumption support is insufficient. The pig price lacks the power to rise continuously [59][60]. - **Corn**: The market trading is light, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term and be strong in the long term [62][63]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price oscillates weakly, and the domestic price maintains a high - level oscillation. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended in the long term [64][65].

烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月17日 张晓珍 Z0003135 PE PP价格及价差 | 品种 | 4月16日 | 4月15日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2505 收盘价 | 7281 | 7336 | -22 | -0.75% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7131 | 7191 | -60 | -0.83% | | | PP2505 收盘价 PP2509 收盘价 | 7189 7098 | 7212 7124 | -23 -26 | -0.32% -0.36% | | | 12505-2509 | 150 | 145 | 5 | 3.45% | 元/吨 | | PP2505-2509 | 91 | 88 | 3 | 3.41% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7200 | 7250 | -50 | -0.69% | | | 农ICDPE膜和现货 | 7350 | 7390 | -40 | -0.54% | | | 华北 L05基差 | 70 | 50 | ...

不同观点 贝解及分析方法 并不代表广发期待可其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下 报告内容仅供参考 报告中的信息或所专次的律风并不如成所试 H介或询价,投资者据此投资 未经广发明出书面 授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货 知识图强,求实奉献, 客户至上,合作共赢 关注微信公众号 | | | | 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月17日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 259600 | 259900 | -300 | -0.12% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 1150 | 1150 | O | 0.00% | 元/中 | | 长江 1#锡 | 260100 | 260400 | -300 | -0.12% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -290.00 ...

| 产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王法庭 | Z0019938 | 2025年4月17日 | | | | | | | | | | | 臣湘 | 4月16日 | 4月15日 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | | | 8090 | 8090 | 0 | 0.00% | 现价 | 江苏一级 | Y2509 | 7674 | 7706 | -32 | -0.42% | 期价 | | 基差 | Y2509 | 416 | 384 | 8.33% | 32 | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏4月 | 05+380 | 05+450 | -70 | - | | 仓单 | 735 | 735 | 0 | 0.00% | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | 4月16日 | 4月15日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 9100 | 9150 | -0.55% | 广东24度 | -20 | ...