| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年4月16日 | | 王凌辉 | Z0019938 | | | 原田 | | | | | 4月15日 | | 4月14日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 8090 | 现价 江苏一级 | 8120 | -30 | -0.37% | | 7706 | Y2509 期价 | 7734 | -28 | -0.36% | | 384 | 基差 Y2509 | 386 | -2 | -0.52% | | 05+450 | 现货基差报价 江苏4月 | 05+420 | 30 | - | | 735 | 仓单 | 735 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | 4月15日 | | 4月14日 | 涨跌 | 旅跌幅 | | 9150 | 广东24度 现价 | 9250 | -100 | -1.08% | | 8720 | 期价 P2509 | 8748 | -28 | -0.32% | | 430 | 墓差 P2509 | 502 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The production has gradually recovered to the normal level, and the overall daily production has increased again after the maintenance of some alkali plants ended. Although the alkali plants have slightly reduced their inventories recently, there is still inventory pressure in the future. The market is expected to continue weak fluctuations in the future without macro - positive support [1]. - Glass: The current market trading logic is still dominated by the macro - situation, and the fundamentals play a relatively weak role. The spot sales in many places have been strong since mid - March due to the seasonal recovery of demand. It is recommended to wait for the end of the delivery logic of contract 05 and then comprehensively evaluate the trading logic of contract 2509 [1]. Industrial Silicon The spot price of industrial silicon has declined, and the futures price has reached a new low. Although large - scale enterprises have reduced production, the supply reduction is narrowed due to new capacity in Yunnan, the resumption of production of some small hydropower enterprises in the southwest, and the increase in the start - up rate in the northwest. The overall balance may still face the problem of inventory accumulation, and the price is under pressure [2]. Polysilicon The polysilicon futures price has broken through the support level and fallen. The spot price is higher than the futures price, and there is no arbitrage space. The polysilicon inventory has increased slightly, while the silicon wafer inventory has decreased. The downstream demand is still supported in April, but the prices of downstream products have started to weaken, and the downstream production schedule is expected to decline in May. The market atmosphere is bearish [3]. Rubber On the supply side, domestic rubber - producing areas are gradually entering the new - year tapping season, and new rubber is being gradually released. Overseas raw material prices have declined due to the drop in spot prices, weakening the cost support for rubber prices. On the demand side, the inventory of semi - steel tires has continued to increase, and enterprises have reduced production to control inventory pressure. It is expected that the rubber price will still face significant pressure in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - Glass: The spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The prices of glass contracts 2505 and 2509 decreased, with declines of 0.69% and 2.07% respectively. The 05 basis increased by 8.16% [1]. - Soda ash: The spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash contracts 2505 and 2509 decreased, with declines of 0.60% and 0.67% respectively. The 05 basis increased by 3.79% [1]. - **Supply** - Soda ash: The operating rate increased from 82.38% to 88.05%, and the weekly output increased by 3.46% to 73.77 million tons [1]. - Glass: The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory** - Glass: The inventory decreased by 0.84% [1]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory decreased by 0.49%, and the delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 3.08% [1]. - **Real Estate Data** - New construction area decreased by 2.88%, construction area decreased by 20.51%, completion area increased by 5.27%, and sales area increased by 1.81% [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Spreads** - The prices of various types of industrial silicon decreased slightly, and the basis of some types increased [2]. - The month - to - month spreads of some contracts changed, with some showing increases and some showing decreases [2]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)** - The national production in March increased by 18.20% to 34.22 million tons, and the production in Xinjiang increased by 26.57% to 21.08 million tons. The production in Yunnan decreased by 14.58%, and the production in Sichuan increased by 170.59% [2]. - The national operating rate increased by 13.29% to 57.80%, and the operating rate in Xinjiang increased by 30.41% to 78.05% [2]. - **Inventory** - The factory inventory in Xinjiang increased by 4.42%, and the social inventory increased by 0.66%. The non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1.66%, while the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.08% [2]. Polysilicon - **Prices and Spreads** - The average price of some polysilicon materials remained unchanged, while the price of N - type silicon wafers decreased by 2.60%. The futures price of contract PS2506 decreased by 2.56% [3]. - The month - to - month spreads of some futures contracts changed, with some showing increases and some showing decreases [3]. - **Fundamental Data** - Weekly: The silicon wafer production decreased by 0.59%, and the average cost of the polysilicon industry decreased by 0.38% [3]. - Monthly: The polysilicon production in March increased by 6.66% to 9.61 million tons, and the silicon wafer production increased by 5.05% to 50.76 million tons [3]. - **Inventory** - The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.39% to 24.4 million tons, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 8.37% to 19.15 GW [3]. Rubber - **Prices and Spreads** - The prices of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber decreased, and the basis and non - standard price difference changed [4]. - The month - to - month spreads of some contracts changed, with some showing increases and some showing decreases [4]. - **Fundamental Data** - Production: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China decreased to varying degrees in February [4]. - Operating Rate: The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires decreased [4]. - Output and Export: The domestic tire output in December increased by 2.04%, and the tire export volume in February decreased by 30.93% [4]. - Import: The import volume of natural rubber in February decreased by 14.50%, while the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 11.76% [4]. - Cost and Profit: The production cost of some rubber products remained unchanged, and the production profit of STR20 decreased by 82.58% [4]. - **Inventory** - The bonded - area inventory increased by 0.13%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 49.13% [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][5][6][7] 2. Core Views Steel - The steel industry maintains a pattern of high production, high apparent demand, and low inventory, but there is an expectation of weakening demand on a sequential basis. In the context of Sino - US trade decoupling, long - term demand is expected to weaken. The medium - term supply - demand pattern is still loose, and currently, there is no prominent short - term supply - demand contradiction. It is expected that rebar will fluctuate in the range of 3100 - 3200 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coils will fluctuate in the range of 3150 - 3300 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a long - steel short - ore arbitrage strategy for the near - month contracts [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is expected to oscillate. The current high iron - making water production maintains the de - stocking pattern of the fundamentals. It is necessary to verify the export situation of steel products in late April. If the subsequent export decline exceeds expectations, the inventory accumulation expectation of iron ore will increase; if the demand remains resilient, the supply - demand will tend to be balanced [3] Coke - The coke market has improved fundamentally on a sequential basis, but the significant increase in US tariffs is a major macro - negative factor. Coking coal, especially Mongolian coal, is still weak with insufficient cost support. It is recommended to switch the main contract in time and adopt a short - term strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [5] Coking Coal - The coking coal market shows marginal improvement in the spot market, but the overall inventory is still at a high level. There is still room for price decline in the future. It is recommended to switch the main contract in time and adopt a short - term strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [5] Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand gap of ferrosilicon has narrowed on a weekly basis. The supply decline has accelerated, but the factory inventory is still high. The demand for non - steel products is insufficient, and the export is still under pressure. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will oscillate weakly [6] Ferromanganese - The ferromanganese market shows that the production decline has slowed down, and the in - factory inventory has increased slightly on a sequential basis. There is still pressure on orders and inventory, and further production cuts are needed. The market should pay attention to the subsequent pricing situation [7] 3. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts show various changes, with price fluctuations generally within a small range [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remain unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu converter rebar has increased by 6 yuan/ton, while the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions has decreased by 25 yuan/ton [1] Production - The daily average iron - making water production has increased by 1.5 tons to 240.2 tons, a 0.6% increase. Rebar production has increased by 3.7 tons to 232.4 tons, a 1.6% increase, while hot - rolled coil production has decreased by 9.4 tons to 313.3 tons, a 2.9% decrease [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 29.5 tons to 1660.6 tons, a 1.7% decrease. Rebar inventory has decreased by 20.3 tons to 777.8 tons, a 2.5% decrease, and hot - rolled coil inventory has decreased by 2 tons to 384.3 tons, a 0.5% decrease [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume has decreased by 0.7 tons to 11.1 tons, a 6.3% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products has decreased by 19.7 tons to 900.5 tons, a 2.1% decrease. Rebar apparent demand has increased by 3 tons to 252.7 tons, a 1.2% increase, while hot - rolled coil apparent demand has decreased by 17 tons to 315.3 tons, a 5.1% decrease [1] Iron Ore Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders have increased slightly, while the basis of the 05 contract for some powders has decreased slightly. The 5 - 9 spread remains unchanged, the 9 - 1 spread has increased by 2 to 28.5, and the 1 - 5 spread has decreased by 2 to - 81.5 [3] Spot Prices and Price Indices - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port have increased slightly, and the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index have also increased [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume has increased by 336.8 tons to 2525.5 tons, a 15.4% increase, while the global shipping volume has decreased by 14.2 tons to 2907.7 tons, a 0.5% decrease. The national monthly import volume has decreased by 293.9 tons to 9421.1 tons, a 3.0% decrease [3] Demand - The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills has increased by 1.5 tons to 240.2 tons, a 0.6% increase, and the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume has increased by 0.5 tons to 318 tons, a 0.2% increase. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production has decreased [3] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory has decreased by 112.4 tons to 14341.02 tons, a 0.8% decrease, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills has decreased by 94.6 tons to 9077.1 tons, a 1.0% decrease, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills has decreased by 1 day to 20 days, a 4.8% decrease [3] Coke Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke has increased by 50 yuan/ton, the coke 05 contract has increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread has strengthened [5] Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) remain unchanged [5] Supply - The daily average production of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills remains unchanged [5] Demand - The iron - making water production of 247 steel mills has increased by 1.5 tons to 240.2 tons, a 0.6% increase [5] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory has increased by 0.9 tons to 1008.4 tons, a 0.1% increase. The inventory of full - sample coking plants has decreased by 10.2 tons to 107.3 tons, a 8.74% decrease, the inventory of 247 steel mills has decreased by 4.9 tons to 668 tons, a 0.74% decrease, and the port inventory has increased by 16 tons to 233.1 tons, a 7.4% increase [5] Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap has decreased by 0.7 tons to - 4.1 tons, a 16.8% decrease [5] Coking Coal Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The price of the coking coal 05 contract has increased by 2.5 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread has strengthened [5] Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs FOB price has decreased by 0.3 dollars/ton, and the Guangzhou Hong Kong - Macau thermal coal ex - warehouse price has increased by 3.7 yuan/ton [5] Supply - The production of Fenwei sample coal mines has increased, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased [5] Demand - The coking production has increased slightly, and the iron - making water production has continued to increase [5] Inventory Changes - The total coking coal inventory has increased, and the upstream mine inventory has changed from de - stocking to stocking [5] Ferrosilicon Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon main contract closing price has decreased by 86 yuan/ton, and the prices of ferrosilicon in different regions remain mostly unchanged [6] Cost and Profit - The costs and profits of ferrosilicon production in different regions remain unchanged [6] Supply - The ferrosilicon production has decreased by 0.8 tons to 10.3 tons, a 7.1% decrease, and the operating rate has decreased by 3 percentage points to 33.4% [6] Demand - The ferrosilicon demand has increased by 0.0 tons to 2.1 tons, a 1.1% increase. The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills has increased, and the Hebei Iron and Steel Group's tender price has decreased [6] Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises has increased by 1.5 tons to 9.5 tons, a 19.1% increase, and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon have increased [6] Ferromanganese Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferromanganese main contract closing price has decreased by 78 yuan/ton, and the prices of ferromanganese in different regions have changed slightly [7] Cost and Profit - The costs of manganese ore in different origins and the production costs and profits of ferromanganese in different regions have changed to varying degrees [7] Manganese Ore Supply - The manganese ore shipping volume has increased by 8.6 tons to 78.1 tons, a 12.4% increase, the manganese ore arrival volume has decreased by 4.7 tons to 31.6 tons, a 13.0% decrease, and the manganese ore ore - removal volume has increased significantly [7] Manganese Ore Inventory - The manganese ore port inventory has decreased by 6.4 tons to 351.1 tons, a 1.8% decrease [7] Supply - The ferromanganese weekly production has decreased by 0.1 tons to 10.5 tons, a 0.8% decrease, and the operating rate has increased by 0.1 percentage points to 46.6% [7] Demand - The ferromanganese demand has increased slightly, and the procurement volume of the Hebei Iron and Steel Group has decreased [7] Inventory Changes - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises has increased by 0.9 tons to 15.8 tons, a 6.1% increase, and the average available days of ferromanganese inventory have decreased [7]

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年4月16日 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 4月15日 | 4月14日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 828.5 | 834.5 | -6.0 | -0.72% | | | 原木2509 | 841.5 | 846.0 | -4.5 | -0.53% | | | 原木2511 | 846.0 | 849.0 | -3.0 | -0.35% | | | 7-9价差 | -13.0 | -11.5 | -1.5 | | | | 9-11价差 | -4.5 | -3.0 | -1.5 | | | | 7-11价差 | -17.5 | -14.5 | -3.0 | | | | 07合约基差 | -48.5 | -54.5 | 6.0 | | | | 09合约基差 | -61.5 | -66.0 | 4.5 | | | | 11合约基差 | -66.0 | -69.0 | 3.0 | | 元/立方米 | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | ...

Report Summary Core View The report presents the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, historical quantiles, and spot references of various commodities and financial instruments on April 16, 2025, covering ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and financial futures [1]. Summary by Category Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF506)**: Spot price is 5978, futures price is 5774, basis is 204, basis rate is 3.53%, and historical quantile is 84.70% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM505)**: Spot price is 6020, futures price is 5868, basis is 152, basis rate is 2.59%, and historical quantile is 50.10% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2510)**: Spot price is 3170, futures price is 3125, basis rate is 1.44%, and historical quantile is 35.10% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: Spot price is 3250, futures price is 3236, basis is 14, basis rate is 0.43%, and historical quantile is 26.10% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2509)**: Spot price is 803, futures price is 713, basis is 90, basis rate is 12.61%, and historical quantile is 64.70% [1]. - **Coke (J2505)**: Spot price is 1520, futures price is 1567, basis is - 47, basis rate is - 2.97%, and historical quantile is 22.71% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2509)**: Spot price is 1058, futures price is 908, basis is 150, basis rate is 16.52%, and historical quantile is 69.00% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2506)**: Spot price is 76195, futures price is 75970, basis is 555, basis rate is 0.30%, and historical quantile is 65.00% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2506)**: Spot price is 19680, futures price is 19595, basis is 85, basis rate is 0.43%, and historical quantile is 72.29% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2505)**: Spot price is 2870, futures price is 2802, basis is 68, basis rate is 2.42%, and historical quantile is 62.72% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2506)**: Spot price is 22730, futures price is 22325, basis is 405, basis rate is 1.81%, and historical quantile is 92.91% [1]. - **Tin (SN2505)**: Spot price is 259900, futures price is 258990, basis is 910, basis rate is 0.35%, and historical quantile is 71.04% [1]. - **Nickel (NI2506)**: Spot price is 124175, futures price is 124240, basis is - 65, basis rate is - 0.05%, and historical quantile is 48.75% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2506)**: Spot price is 13420, futures price is 12860, basis is 560, basis rate is 4.35%, and historical quantile is 93.14% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2505)**: Spot price is 10100, futures price is 9455, basis is 645, basis rate is 6.82%, and historical quantile is 50.62% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2505)**: Spot price is 71550, futures price is 70720, basis is 830, basis rate is 1.17%, and historical quantile is 58.85% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2506)**: Spot price is 762.0, futures price is 764.4, basis is - 2.4, basis rate is - 0.32%, and historical quantile is 31.00% [1]. - **Silver (AG2506)**: Spot price is 8139.0, futures price is 8158.0, basis is - 19.0, basis rate is - 0.23%, and historical quantile is 36.90% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2509)**: Spot price is 3290, futures price is 3066.0, basis is 224.0, basis rate is 7.31%, and historical quantile is 53.10% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2509)**: Spot price is 8000, futures price is 7676.0, basis is 324.0, basis rate is 4.22%, and historical quantile is 40.10% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2509)**: Spot price is 9140, futures price is 8134.0, basis is 1006.0, basis rate is 12.37%, and historical quantile is 66.60% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM2509)**: Spot price is 2550, futures price is 2673.0, basis is - 123.0, basis rate is - 4.60%, and historical quantile is 10.90% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI2509)**: Spot price is 9350, futures price is 9286.0, basis is 64.0, basis rate is 0.69%, and historical quantile is 37.90% [1]. - **Corn (C2507)**: Spot price is 2220, futures price is 2302.0, basis is - 82.0, basis rate is - 3.56%, and historical quantile is 12.20% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2507)**: Spot price is 2650, futures price is 2668.0, basis is - 18.0, basis rate is - 0.67%, and historical quantile is 7.90% [1]. - **Live Hogs (LH2509)**: Spot price is 14950, futures price is 14510.0, basis is 440.0, basis rate is 3.03%, and historical quantile is 56.70% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2506)**: Spot price is 3360, futures price is 2995.0, basis is 365.0, basis rate is 12.19%, and historical quantile is 48.40% [1]. - **Cotton (CF2509)**: Spot price is 14219, futures price is 12880.0, basis is 1339.0, basis rate is 10.40%, and historical quantile is 90.10% [1]. - **Sugar (SR2509)**: Spot price is 6200, futures price is 5896.0, basis is 304.0, basis rate is 5.16%, and historical quantile is 64.90% [1]. - **Apples (AP2510)**: Spot price is 7600, futures price is 7726.0, basis is - 126.0, basis rate is - 1.63%, and historical quantile is 12.30% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ2509)**: Spot price is 8300, futures price is 9390.0, basis is - 1090.0, basis rate is - 11.61%, and historical quantile is 64.90% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX2509)**: Spot price is 6171.4, futures price is 5930.0, basis is 241.4, basis rate is 4.07%, and historical quantile is 92.40% [1]. - **PTA (TA2509)**: Spot price is 4300.0, futures price is 4324.0, basis is - 24.0, basis rate is - 0.56%, and historical quantile is 42.70% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2505)**: Spot price is 4245.0, futures price is 4178.0, basis is 67.0, basis rate is 1.60%, and historical quantile is 86.20% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF2506)**: Spot price is 6335.0, futures price is 5980.0, basis is 355.0, basis rate is 5.94%, and historical quantile is 92.60% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2505)**: Spot price is 7625.0, futures price is 7430.0, basis is 195.0, basis rate is 2.62%, and historical quantile is 65.40% [1]. - **Methanol (MA2505)**: Spot price is 2445.0, futures price is 2369.0, basis is 76.0, basis rate is 3.21%, and historical quantile is 69.80% [1]. - **Urea (UR2505)**: Spot price is 1900.0, futures price is 1802.0, basis is 98.0, basis rate is 5.44%, and historical quantile is 41.20% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2509)**: Spot price is 7525.0, futures price is 7191.0, basis is 334.0, basis rate is 4.64%, and historical quantile is 89.80% [1]. - **PP (PP2509)**: Spot price is 7300.0, futures price is 7124.0, basis is 176.0, basis rate is 2.47%, and historical quantile is 67.20% [1]. - **PVC (V2505)**: Spot price is 4820.0, futures price is 4931.0, basis is - 111.0, basis rate is - 2.25%, and historical quantile is 48.50% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH202)**: Spot price is 2406.3, futures price is 2425.0, basis is - 18.8, basis rate is - 0.77%, and historical quantile is 53.60% [1]. - **LPG (PG2505)**: Spot price is 5148.0, futures price is 4423.0, basis is 725.0, basis rate is 16.39%, and historical quantile is 85.10% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2506)**: Spot price is 3415.0, futures price is 3301.0, basis is 114.0, basis rate is 3.45%, and historical quantile is 76.20% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2505)**: Spot price is 12000.0, futures price is 11410.0, basis is 590.0, basis rate is 5.17%, and historical quantile is 85.90% [1]. - **Glass (FG2509)**: Spot price is 1144.0, futures price is 1144.0, basis is 0.0, basis rate is 0.00%, and historical quantile is 63.15% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA2509)**: Spot price is 1351.0, futures price is 1331.0, basis is 20.0, basis rate is 1.48%, and historical quantile is 31.36% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2509)**: Spot price is 14750.0, futures price is 14710.0, basis is 40.0, basis rate is 0.27%, and historical quantile is 99.37% [1]. Financial Futures - **CSI 300 (IF2506)**: Spot price is 3761.2, futures price is 3690.4, basis is - 70.8, basis rate is - 1.92%, and historical quantile is 2.60% [1]. - **SSE 50 (IH2506)**: Spot price is 2634.6, futures price is 2608.8, basis is - 25.8, basis rate is - 0.99%, and historical quantile is 4.10% [1]. - **CSI 500 (IC2504)**: Spot price is 5602.5, futures price is 5580.0, basis is - 22.5, basis rate is - 0.40%, and historical quantile is 50.20% [1]. - **CSI 1000 (IM2506)**: Spot price is 5914.0, futures price is 5680.4, basis is - 233.6, basis rate is - 4.11%, and historical quantile is 0.30% [1]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2506)**: Spot price is 99.43, futures price is 102.54, basis is - 0.23, basis rate is - 0.22%, and historical quantile is 2.20% [1]. - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2506)**: Spot price is 104.72, futures price is 106.29, basis is 0.03, basis rate is 0.03%, and historical quantile is 25.90% [1]. - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2506)**: Spot price is 99.24, futures price is 108.98, basis is - 0.14, basis rate is - 0.13%, and historical quantile is 4.90% [1]. - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2506)**: Spot price is 137.13, futures price is 119.89, basis is 0.13, basis rate is 0.11%, and historical quantile is 13.80% [1]. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report.

关注微信公众号 | 产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年4月16日 | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解辑 125475 | 124600 | 875 | 0.70% | 元/吨 | | 1#송川镇 126850 | 126050 | 800 | 0.63% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镇升贴水 2900 | 3100 | -200 | -6.45% | 元/肥 | | 1#进口镇 124175 | 123150 | 1025 | 0.83% | 元/H | | 1#进口镍升贴水 225 | 200 | ર્ટ | - | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 -211 | -202 | -8 | 4.19% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 -2871 | -2840 | -31 | 1.09% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 8.07 | 8.06 | 0.0 ...

厂家 用货号 投资咨询业务资格: 班题奸可【2011】1292号 2025年4月16日 欢迎关注微信公众号 | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | IF2506 | | 关注后续国内对冲政策情况带来修复机会,而下方 | | | 股指 | IH2506 | 市场等待信号指引,指数窄幅震荡为主 | 支撑稳定,再次破位概率极低。建议卖出前低位沪 | | | | IC2506 | | 深300在3550点附近,中证1000在5500点附近 | | | | IM2506 | | 行权价5月看跌期权收取权利金 | | | | 12506 TF2506 | 短期长债利率下行接近前低下行速度放缓,走势进入震荡等待 | 单边策略上短期建议可以逢调整适当做多。基差策 | | | 国债 | TS2506 | 方向指引阶段(10债波动区间处于1.63%-1.67%) | 略上,建议参与各品种正套策略。曲线策略上建议 | | 金融 | | TL2506 | | 适当关注做陡 | | | | | | 关注美国贸易谈判和经济GDP等数据发布等 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 4 月 16 日星期三 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

1. Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: After short - term release of export slowdown, the market rebounds, but the benchmark contract conversion affects the price. In China, the production cycle starts, and the price may fluctuate widely in the medium - and short - term [1]. - Soybean oil: The impact of Sino - US trade disputes is digested. The NOPA report may show an increase in US soybean oil inventory, but it is still lower than last year. In China, soybean supply shortage will last until the end of the month, and the basis price will decline as Brazilian soybeans arrive [1]. Sugar Industry - The market expects an increase in the 25/26 sugar season, which will suppress prices in the long - term. Raw sugar will fluctuate between 17 - 20 cents/pound. The domestic market follows the raw sugar trend, with price support but limited upside due to increasing industrial inventory [3]. Cotton Industry - Macroeconomic uncertainties remain high, and the downstream demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see [4]. Egg Industry - Egg supply and demand are generally balanced, and the national egg price is expected to remain stable this week [7]. Meal Industry - US soybean prices are affected by tariff policies and inventory adjustments. Brazilian supply pressure is increasing. In China, slow customs clearance affects soybean inventory, and the meal basis is boosted. The market may face a short - term correction [9]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - Corn supply is tightening in the long - term, but short - term factors are mixed. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and strong in the long - term. Corn starch shows some price differences compared to corn [12]. Pig Industry - The pig futures price is pushed up by feed trends and second - round fattening. In the short - term, the price may be strong, but the sustainability is uncertain due to supply pressure and weak demand [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On April 15, 2025, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil prices all declined compared to April 14. For example, the price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil decreased by 0.37% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spread increased by 6.19%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 9.16% [1]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: On April 15, 2025, the price of sugar 2505 increased by 0.07%, and the price of sugar 2509 decreased by 0.37% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.32%, and the price in Kunming increased by 0.42% [3]. - **Industry Data**: The national sugar production increased by 12.27% year - on - year, and the sales increased by 26.64% [3]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: On April 15, 2025, the price of cotton 2505 decreased by 0.86%, and the price of cotton 2509 decreased by 0.85% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Xinjiang 3128B increased slightly, and the FC Index:M: 1% decreased by 2.15% [4]. - **Industry Data**: Commercial inventory decreased by 6.5%, and the export of textile yarn and fabric increased by 93.8% [4]. Egg Industry - **Prices**: On April 15, 2025, the price of the egg 09 contract decreased by 0.05%, and the price of the egg 05 contract increased by 0.10% [7]. - **Related Data**: The egg - feed ratio was 2.53, and the breeding profit was - 15.78 yuan/feather [7]. Meal Industry - **Prices**: On April 15, 2025, the price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased by 1.82%, and the price of the M2509 contract decreased by 1.22% [9]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - rapeseed meal spread in 2509 increased by 2.61% [9]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Corn**: On April 15, 2025, the price of corn 2507 decreased by 0.35%, and the import profit decreased by 5.78% [12]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2507 increased by 0.26%, and the starch - corn spread increased by 4.27% [12]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: On April 15, 2025, the price of the pig 2505 contract decreased by 8.33%, and the price of the 2509 contract increased by 0.28% [16]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price in Sichuan increased by 130 yuan/ton [16]. - **Related Data**: The sample slaughter volume increased by 0.19%, and the self - breeding profit increased by 8.83% [16].

3/1 | 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年4月16日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 价差 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较削一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | F期现价差 | -70.83 | -6.49 | 1.60% | 2.60% | | 期现价差 | H期现价差 | -25.79 | -4.19 | 6.90% | 4.10% | | | IC期现价差 | -22.53 | 19.80 | 45.90% | 50.20% | | | IM期现价差 | -233.63 | 11.90 | 10.00% | 0.30% | | | 次月-当月 | -22.00 | -5.60 | 11.00% | 19.40% | | | 季月-崇月 | -54.00 | -5.80 | 0.80% | 20.30% | | | 远月-崇月 | -105.60 | -4.60 | 0.40% | 16 ...