研究热线：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 成文日期: 20250701 研究品种:碳酸锌 研究员：曹柏泉 期货咨询证号（F03122015&Z0019820) 报告周期: 日度 理期货目报 1. 市场概述与行情回顾 1.1 当日市场总体表现 今日（20250701）碳酸锂期货市场呈现先抑后扬走势。主力合 约 2509，收于 62780 元/吨，较昨天结算价上涨 100 元/吨，涨幅为 0.16%。成交量为 39.83 万手；持仓量为 32.67 万手，较昨日减少 4148 手。现货市场价格滞后期货市场,碳酸锂市场交投有所减弱。 图 1：碳酸锂主力合约分时图走势 图片 来源：国金期货-博易云 Li₂CO₃≥99.5% 61300 / Li₂CO₃≥99.2% 59700 / CIF6 625 / 5 / CIF /5.5%-6.2% 625 / CIF /5.5%-6.2% 620 / 2.1 3. 结论与展望 综合而言,若供应端无明显减产,需求端无重大利好刺激等, 碳酸锂价格仍将维持弱势震荡格局。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Information - The report focuses on lithium carbonate with a monthly review cycle, written on July 1, 2025 [1] 2. Market Review - In June, affected by supply - demand changes and relevant stimulus policies, the futures price of lithium carbonate first declined and then rose, increasing by 2420 yuan/ton (4.04%) for the whole month. The highest price of the main contract 2509 was 63600 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 58400 yuan/ton. As of June 30, the average spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 61300 yuan/ton, the average spot price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59700 yuan/ton, the futures closed at 62260 yuan/ton, and the basis widened to 960 yuan/ton. The futures price fluctuated frequently, with a downward trend in the first ten - day period due to pessimistic market expectations and a certain rebound in the last ten - day period affected by some news and capital games, but still in a weak pattern [3] 3. Supply - Demand Fundamentals 3.1 Domestic Production - In June, domestic lithium carbonate production remained at a relatively high level. Some mica - based lithium extraction enterprises had slightly fluctuating production due to raw material supply and cost issues, while salt - lake and spodumene - based lithium extraction enterprises maintained stable production. In Jiangxi, some mica - based lithium extraction enterprises reduced production by about 5 - 8% month - on - month due to high lithium mica concentrate prices. In Qinghai salt - lake areas, production increased by about 3 - 5% month - on - month due to the summer production peak. According to SMM data, the total domestic lithium carbonate production in June was about 35,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 2% [4] 3.2 Import Situation - In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate declined. Customs data showed that the total import volume was about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.3%, and the average import price was about 12,309 US dollars/ton. Among them, about 15,700 tons were imported from Chile and about 3400 tons from Argentina. The decrease in imports alleviated the oversupply situation to some extent, but the overall supply was still sufficient [4] 3.3 Power Battery Field - In June, the production and sales data of the new energy vehicle market were good, and the growth rate remained at a certain level [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of synthetic rubber still exists due to the long - term impact of new capacity release, and the demand side is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. The cost side has some support for prices, so the synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the market scale of synthetic rubber is expected to expand with the development of the automotive industry and new energy vehicles. Investors should focus on macro - policies and supply - demand changes [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 2. Synthetic Rubber Industry Chain Analysis - In June, the price of raw material butadiene fluctuated downward, having a continuous negative impact on SBS and limiting its rebound space [5]. 3. Synthetic Rubber Cost and Profit - At the beginning of June, the ex - factory price of butadiene increased by 500 yuan/ton to 12,500 yuan/ton. In June, synthetic rubber enterprises had poor profit conditions and were mostly in a loss state. As of June 12, the production cost of cis - butadiene rubber was 15,985 yuan/ton, and the production profit in Shandong was - 185 yuan/ton. By June 20, the after - tax profit of synthetic rubber was - 1,230.09 yuan/ton. With the loosening of butadiene supply in the second half of June and the decline in price, the profit of synthetic rubber improved slightly [7]. 4. Synthetic Rubber Futures Market - For futures contracts BR2508, BR2509, and BR2510, their monthly opening prices were 10,925 yuan/ton, 10,900 yuan/ton, and 10,845 yuan/ton respectively; the highest prices were 11,780 yuan/ton, 11,685 yuan/ton, and 11,655 yuan/ton respectively; the lowest prices were 10,595 yuan/ton, 10,555 yuan/ton, and 10,540 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices were 11,250 yuan/ton, 11,140 yuan/ton, and 11,085 yuan/ton respectively; the price increases were 255 yuan/ton, 220 yuan/ton, and 165 yuan/ton respectively; the positions were 28,291 lots, 22,101 lots, and 1,968 lots respectively; and the position changes were - 14,518 lots, 8,048 lots, and 1,454 lots respectively [10]. 5. Synthetic Rubber Import and Export Situation - In May, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 607,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to May were 3.476 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.5%. From January to May, the import volume of synthetic rubber increased by 13% year - on - year to 587,000 tons. The overall import volume showed an increasing trend, and the import volume in June may continue to grow without special circumstances [11]. 6. Conclusion and Outlook - In the short - term, the synthetic rubber market has supply pressure, and the demand side is difficult to improve significantly. The cost side supports prices, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the market scale is expected to expand with industry development, and investors should pay attention to macro - policies and supply - demand changes [12].

Group 1: General Information - Research variety: Natural rubber [1] - Report date: June 30, 2025 [1] - Report period: Weekly [1] - Researcher: He Ning, Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0001219 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - The upward driving force of natural rubber is insufficient, and it may remain weakly volatile in the short term [3] Group 3: Core View - The fundamentals of natural rubber do not have upward driving force, and the futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of factors such as Sino-US tariffs, upstream production, and midstream inventory on market sentiment and price trends [11][12] Group 4: Spot Market Analysis - In the domestic Yunnan production area, heavy rainfall last week affected the raw material procurement sentiment of concentrated latex, and the raw material supply was tight; in the Hainan production area, affected by the previous typhoon, the output speed was dragged down, with a total island collection of about 3,000 - 3,500 tons, still less than the same period in previous years. In the Thai production area, there was less disturbance last week [9][10] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of sample all-steel tire factories was 62.23%, and that of semi-steel tire factories was about 70.4%. The demand expectation was impacted by the macro tariff war, the order situation was average, and the capacity utilization rate of most tire factories fluctuated at a low level [10] - According to Longzhong Information statistics, the domestic natural rubber social inventory was about 1.286 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.8 million tons, an increase of 0.6%. The social inventory of dark rubber was about 780,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.3%. The social inventory of light rubber was about 506,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%. There was a slight inventory accumulation [10] Group 5: Futures-Spot Combination Analysis - Last week, the spot market price of Thai mixed natural rubber fluctuated with the market. The monthly spread of Thai mixed spot showed a weak BACK structure, and the futures-spot spread widened. The spread between the RU main contract and Thai mixed spot fluctuated between 100 - 200 yuan/ton; the spread between the NR main contract * 1.13 and Thai mixed spot fell to about -20 yuan/ton. According to the past spread rules, there is no good opportunity for non-standard positive set building in the current market. Recently, the number of NR warehouse receipts has gradually increased, and the premium of standard rubber spot over mixed rubber spot has shrunk to par. In the Yunnan production area, the impact of rainfall decreased last week, and the spread between standard No. 2 and Thai mixed widened to about 700 yuan/ton [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The stainless steel 2508 main contract futures price is expected to continue the current oscillating trend in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the impact of key macro data releases and industrial policy changes on market sentiment and price trends [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview and Market Review - **1.1 Daily Market Overall Performance** - On June 30, 2025, the stainless steel futures market rose and then fell. The 2508 stainless steel main contract opened at 12,665 points, reached a high of 12,735 points, a low of 12,600 points, and closed at 12,610 points, down 10 points or - 0.08% from the previous day's closing price. The trading volume was 146,000 lots, an increase of 3,974 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 101,000 lots, a decrease of 6,160 lots from the previous day. The market activity declined, and the main contract was gradually shifting. In the spot market, the prices of 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil plate in different regions varied [2] - **1.2 Futures Market Data** - For the ss2507 contract, the closing price was 12,510, down 15 points or - 0.12%, with a trading volume of 3,429 lots, an amplitude of 1.80%, an open interest of 4,908 lots, and a daily decrease of 1,586 lots. For the ss2508 contract, the closing price was 12,610, down 10 points or - 0.08%, with a trading volume of 146,000 lots, an amplitude of 1.07%, an open interest of 101,000 lots, and a daily decrease of 6,160 lots. For the ss2509 contract, the closing price was 12,562, down 10 points or - 0.08%, with a trading volume of 41,255 lots, an amplitude of 0.95%, an open interest of 61,962 lots, and a daily decrease of 2,610 lots [6] 3.2 Analysis of Influencing Factors - The impetus from the production cut of Qingshan stainless steel plant weakened on June 30. The downstream consumer market is in the traditional off - season and difficult to recover in the short - term, resulting in weak demand. The US tariff increase on steel products hinders China's stainless steel exports, especially for low - value - added products, making the demand expectation more pessimistic. The social inventory is at a high level, the de - stocking process is blocked, and it has reached a record high for the same period. The spot market quotation is chaotic, showing panic. The change in the basis structure indicates a pessimistic market expectation [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - In June 2025, the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts had capital inflows, and the monthly K - lines closed positive. The conflict between Israel and Iran on June 13 and the cease - fire on June 24, along with the central bank's reverse repurchase operations releasing liquidity, provided support for the bond market, showing strong market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Analysis - The two - year Treasury bond futures' main contract closed at 102.498 yuan this month, up 0.10% from last month, with lower trading volume than the previous month and the MACD having a death cross above the zero - axis [8]. - The five - year Treasury bond futures' main contract closed at 106.160 yuan this month, up 0.13% from last month, with the monthly K - line closing positive [10]. - The thirty - year Treasury bond futures' main contract closed at 120.42 yuan this month, up 0.85% from last month, with the monthly K - line closing positive, leaving an upper shadow, and approaching the previous high of 122.28 yuan. The trading volume was less than the previous month, and the MACD continued to converge in a death cross above the zero - axis [15]. 3.2 Spot Market Analysis - On June 19, the central bank conducted 2035 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40% [15]. - The overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) dropped 0.3 basis points to 1.366%, and the 7 - day Shibor dropped 0.3 basis points to 1.505% [15]. - On June 24, the central bank conducted 4065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 2092 billion yuan [15]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Combination Analysis - Liquidity support: The central bank's net investment of funds through reverse repurchase maintained abundant inter - bank liquidity, providing short - term support for the bond market. On June 26, the central bank conducted 5093 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 3058 billion yuan after deducting the maturing funds [16]. - Geopolitical risk disturbance: The Israel - Iran conflict on June 13 boosted risk - aversion sentiment, causing funds to flow to safe assets like Treasury bonds, especially long - term varieties. The cease - fire was announced on June 24 [17]. 3.4 Outlook for the Future - In June, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures rose, which was related to the market traders' enthusiasm and the geopolitical risks. The central bank's reverse repurchase operations released a signal of loose liquidity in the inter - bank market, and it is uncertain whether it will continuously support market liquidity [18]

Market Overview and Quotes Review - On June 30, 2025, the price of the main urea futures contract fluctuated and declined, closing at 1,712 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 1,727 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1,701 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 218,000 lots, and the open interest was 224,000 lots [2]. - The latest price of the urea 2508 contract was 1,721 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 0.98%, with an open interest of 850 lots, an increase of 29 lots, and a trading volume of 224 lots. The latest price of the urea 2509 contract was 1,712 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.64%, with an open interest of 223,700 lots, an increase of 1,164 lots, and a trading volume of 218,328 lots [5]. - The overall price of urea in major regions remained stable. The representative factory quotes were: Henan Xinlianxin in Central China at 1,830 yuan/ton, Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China at 1,700 yuan/ton, Ruixing Group in East China at 1,770 yuan/ton, and Hualu Hengsheng in North China at 1,780 yuan/ton [5]. Analysis of Influencing Factors - Overseas: India's RCF issued a urea import tender plan with a procurement target of 2 million tons, with 1 million tons allocated to each of the east and west coasts. The tender will open on July 7, be valid until July 17, and the final shipping deadline is set for August 22 [8]. - Policy: To promote the export self - discipline of circulation enterprises, the industry association coordinated to add a port legal inspection link, which is implemented by three state - owned enterprises: China National Agricultural Means of Production Group, Sinochem Fertilizer, and China National Chemical Construction. It supplements the origin legal inspection system [10]. - Demand: The end of the Israel - Palestine conflict led to the消退 of its market impact, and the international urea price significantly回调. However, due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets and India's new tender, it supported the domestic market sentiment. Domestically, the enthusiasm for compound fertilizer production in Central and North China was low, and the grass - roots market was resistant to high - priced goods. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises declined from the high level, and their raw material procurement willingness was weak [10]. - Supply: The operating rate and daily output of the urea industry reached peak values in recent years, and the inventory showed small fluctuations. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine in industrial demand continued to decline, and the agricultural demand expectation weakened again. The oversupply pattern in the urea market was still significant [10]. Conclusion and Outlook - India's large - scale tender will boost the market sentiment in the short term, and domestic policies guide self - disciplined exports. With the decline of international urea prices, weak domestic industrial and agricultural demand, and continuous high supply, the oversupply pattern in the urea market is significant. The contradiction between high supply and weak demand is prominent, and export profit is the key variable. It is expected that the domestic urea price will face upward pressure in the short term and may continue to operate weakly [8].

Group 1: Futures Contract Trading Information - The trading volume of IF2509 is 56,221 lots, with a transaction amount of 6.58 billion yuan. Its opening price is 3,911, the highest price is 3,931.4, the lowest price is 3,874, the closing price is 3,876.6, and the price drops by 0.74% compared to the previous settlement price. The open interest is 139,367 lots, with an increase of 3,684 lots [3]. - The trading volume of IC2507 is 36,609 lots, with a transaction amount of 4.28 billion yuan. Its opening price is 5,828.8, the highest price is 5,882.6, the lowest price is 5,806.8, the closing price is 5,827, and the price rises by 0.23% compared to the previous settlement price. The open interest is 77,537 lots, with an increase of 1,525 lots [3]. - The trading volume of IM2509 is 113,010 lots, with a transaction amount of 13.86 billion yuan. Its opening price is 6,120, the highest price is 6,174.4, the lowest price is 6,100.6, the closing price is 6,110.8, and the price rises by 0.10% compared to the previous settlement price. The open interest is 167,757 lots, with an increase of 6,063 lots [3]. - The trading volume of IH2509 is 32,852 lots, with a transaction amount of 2.66 billion yuan. Its opening price is 2,714, the highest price is 2,725, the lowest price is 2,678.4, the closing price is 2,680, and the price drops by 1.17% compared to the previous settlement price. The open interest is 53,070 lots, with an increase of 4,634 lots [3].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report on corn starch daily market [1] - Written on June 27, 2025 [1] - Reviewed on a daily basis [1] - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] - Consultation license number: Z0017731 [1] Group 2: Futures Market Review - On June 27, 2025, the main contract of corn starch futures showed an overall upward trend [5] - The closing price of the main contract cs2509 was 2,743 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5] - The trading volume was 104,000 lots, an increase of 11,517 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] - The open interest at the close was 149,000 lots, an increase of 5,207 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] Group 3: Spot Market Fundamentals - The spot price of corn starch showed a stable and rising trend [6] - The price in Shandong region was quoted [6]

C 国金期货 观投研丨产业链周报 研究品种：原油 成文日期：20250629 报告周期：周度 研究员：何宁 从业资格号:F0238922;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219 二 现货 分析 三、影响因素分析 四、后市展望 何担保。本公司建议交易者应考虑本报告的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定情形，在任何情 况下，本报告中的信息或所表述的意见仅供参考，并不构成对任何人的交易咨询建议。本公 司不对投资者因使用本报告中的内容所引致的损失承担任何责任。 同时提醒期货交易者，期市有风险，入市需谨慎! ...