Group 1 - Product Information - The report lists various grades and prices of late Fuji apples from different regions on February 8th [5] - Apple grades include second - grade, third - grade, fruit farmer's unified goods, merchant's unified goods, etc [5] - Regions include Qixia, Zhaoyuan, Penglai, Yiyuan, Luochuan, Baishui, Chengcheng, Xunyi, Jingning, Linji, and Wafangdian [5] - Prices range from 2.3 to 4.8, with different prices for different regions and grades [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - The subsequent market will be priced based on uncertainties such as geopolitics, tariffs, and overseas economic prospects, and the short - term silver price will maintain high - level volatile operation [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Disk Situation - The main contract of Shanghai Silver had little fluctuation today. The opening price was 8,240 yuan/kg, the highest price was 8,280 yuan/kg, and the closing price was 8,252 yuan/kg [3] 3.2 Spot Market - Today's spot silver price was 32.959 US dollars/ounce, with a change of - 0.192 US dollars/ounce and a change rate of - 0.58% [4] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The US Global Supply Chain Pressure Index in April was announced as - 0.29, with the previous value being - 0.17. Facing the current weak US economic data, Trump's tariff policy is having a fatal backlash effect. US importers' pre - stocking behavior to deal with the 300 billion US dollars of commodity tariffs has led to a sharp increase in inventory and exacerbated economic fluctuations. Fed Chairman Powell said the Fed can be patient and does not need to rush to cut interest rates, and Trump's statement "will not affect the Fed's work at all" [5]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on Shanghai Lead, written on May 6, 2025, with a daily review cycle [1] - The researcher is Cao Baiquan with consulting certificate number Z0019820 [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - Due to the weak performance on the demand side, there is a possibility of continued correction in lead prices in the short term [3] Group 3: Macro Aspect - In April, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.4, down 0.8 from the previous value, reaching the lowest level in the past three months [3] Group 4: Supply Side - Primary lead smelters have basically resumed production with an increasing operating rate, but there was a month - on - month production cut in April due to partial maintenance; the rising price of waste lead - acid batteries has limited the supply of recyclers, causing some smelters to suspend production due to cost issues and thus reducing the operating rate [3] Group 5: Demand Side - It is currently the off - season for consumption. The willingness to stock up before the holiday is low, downstream purchases are limited, and the order volume is relatively low [3] Group 6: Inventory Aspect - As of April 30, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 44,300 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from April 28 and 4,500 tons from April 24 [3] Group 7: Technical Aspect - From the hourly line, the futures price has fallen below the oscillation range; from the daily line, the price has fallen below the support level [3]

二、现货方面 撰写品种：沪银 撰写时间：2025/05/06 回顾周期：日度 沪银日度报告 一、盘面情况 沪银主力合约今日波动不大，开盘价为 8156 元/千克，最高价是 8280 元/千克，收盘价是 8235 元/千克。 风险揭示及免责声明 本报告由国金期货有限责任公司制作，未获授权不得修改、复制和发布。 本报告基于公开资料、第三方数据或实地调研资料，我公司保证已经审慎审核、甄别 和判断信息内容，但无法绝对保证材料的真实性、完整性和准确性，报告中的信息或 所表达的意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，本公司对报告内容及 最终操作不作任何担保。本公司不对投资者因使用本报告中的内容所引致的损失承担 任何责任。 今日现货白银价格为 33.058 美元/盎司，较前一交易日上涨 0.554 美 元，涨幅 1.70%。 三、宏观分析 美国第一季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值-0.3%，陷入负增长；4 月美国 ISM 制造业 PMI48.7，略高于预期但较前值小幅回落，仍处于收缩区间。四 月美国非农就业人数微降至 17.7 万人，好于此前预期，四月美国失业率持 平于 4.2%。关注中美经济数据及关税谈判进展。 四 ...

宏观方面，美国 4 月非农就业新增 17.7 万人（预期 13 万），ISM 服务业 PMI 升至 51.6（预期 50.3），显示经济韧性，市场对美联储 6 月降息预期降温。 撰写品种：沪铝 撰写时间 2025 年 05 月 06 日 星期二 回顾周期；日度 研究员：曹柏泉 咨询证号（Z0019820） 沪铝日度报告 沪铝主力合约价格今日高开低走下行走势，成交量相比较上个交易日放量。al2506 持仓量 183,758 手，成交量 138,706 手，跌幅 1.00%。 图1：沪铝期货主力合约al2506 走势图 图片来源：国金期货行情软件 风险揭示及免责声明 本报告由国金期货有限责任公司制作，未获授权不得修改、复制和发布。 本报告基于公开资料、第三方数据或实地调研资料，我公司保证已经审慎审核、 甄别和判断信息内容，但无法绝对保证材料的真实性、完整性和准确性，报告中的 信息或所表达的意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，本公司对报 告内容及最终操作不作任何担保。本公司不对投资者因使用本报告中的内容所引致 的损失承担任何责任。 现货方面，截至 5 月 6 日，国内电解铝三地库存 63.6 万吨，较节 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Gold entered an adjustment phase in late April after a strong rally, and this adjustment is a response to the continuous sharp rise in the first four months of 2025. The adjustment is expected to last for several weeks and have a significant range, and it may span the entire month of May. However, after the adjustment, gold is likely to continue rising due to the ongoing gold purchases by central banks of emerging market countries [2][6]. - The Sino - US tariff war has entered a stalemate. Although there is a glimmer of hope for a resolution, it will be a long - term, complex process of re - balancing and re - dividing based on each side's strength. The outcome of the tariff negotiation will have a significant impact on the global financial market and gold prices [5]. - The Fed maintains a non - interest - rate - cut stance, which conflicts with the Trump administration's policy of promoting interest - rate cuts. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in June has decreased after the better - than - expected non - farm payroll data [5][6]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Market Review - On April 2, after Trump announced a large - scale global tariff policy, gold initially fell with other risk assets, and the comex2506 contract once fell below $3000 per ounce. Then, driven by risk - aversion sentiment, it rebounded strongly and reached the key level of $3500 per ounce in just two weeks. Subsequently, it has been in an adjustment phase for two weeks. This adjustment is a response to the impact of market expectation changes and Trump's actions on the financial market since December 19, and it is expected to last for several weeks with a significant adjustment range [2]. b) Fundamental Analysis - During the Sino - US tariff war stalemate, the price movement of gold in different trading sessions has changed. In the early and middle of April when gold was rising rapidly, the Asian trading session was more likely to push up the price, while the European and American sessions might see a slight decline. During the adjustment period, the situation is reversed [3]. - China's Ministry of Commerce is evaluating high - level tariff negotiations with the US. China has set clear conditions for the negotiation, emphasizing that the US should show sincerity by correcting wrong practices and canceling unilateral tariff increases. The Sino - US tariff negotiation is a long - term and complex process, and it is unlikely to be resolved within a few weeks as the US hopes [4][5]. - The Fed maintains a non - interest - rate - cut stance, which conflicts with the Trump administration's policy of promoting interest - rate cuts to bring manufacturing back to the US. After the better - than - expected non - farm payroll data on Friday, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in June has decreased [5][6]. - Looking ahead to May, gold is in an adjustment phase after a rapid and sharp rise in the first four months of 2025. The adjustment is expected to last for several weeks and may cover the whole month of May. After the adjustment, gold is likely to continue rising due to the continuous gold purchases by central banks of emerging market countries [6]. c) Futures Monthly K - Line - The report provides the monthly K - line charts of Shanghai Futures Gold weighted price and comex Gold weighted price, but no further analysis is given [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The fuel oil still follows the fluctuations of crude oil. Due to sanctions on Russia and Iran, heavy - oil resources are in short supply, and the recovery of power - generation demand in South Asia during summer supports the crack spread. Given the strength of the high - sulfur market structure in Singapore and the price difference between the domestic and foreign markets, the domestic fuel oil price may have some room for repair, but short - term crude oil fluctuations need to be closely monitored. If the crude oil rebound ends, the fuel oil may continue to weaken [11][12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Chain Situation 3.1.1 Crude Oil Market Latest Dynamics - Supply side: OPEC+ agreed to increase crude oil supply by 411,000 barrels per day starting from May, which theoretically exerts downward pressure on crude oil prices. However, the market believes this increase is mainly to improve member compliance with the production - cut agreement, so the impact is limited. An explosion in Iran disrupted port operations and reduced the shipping efficiency of the Strait of Hormuz by 25%, causing international oil prices to rise by 3.2% - 3.8% in a single day, supporting fuel oil prices [3] - Demand side: The IEA's report shows that in 2024, the global oil demand growth was only 0.8%, and its share in global energy demand fell below 30% for the first time, with a significant slowdown in growth. Recently, as the economy recovers, the energy demand of industries such as logistics has increased, supporting crude oil prices [3] 3.1.2 Fuel Oil Market Performance - **Spot price**: On April 28, the benchmark price of fuel oil was 5,475 yuan per ton, down from last week. The benchmark price of fuel oil 380CST was 452 US dollars per ton, a 10.32% decrease from the beginning of the month [4] - **Supply, demand and inventory**: In Singapore, fuel oil inventory rose by 1.239 million barrels to 24.126 million barrels, an 18 - week high, with a 5.4% month - on - month increase. The average on - land fuel oil inventory in April was about 22.55 million barrels per week, higher than the average of 18.68 million barrels per week in March. In the ARA region, fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.4% to 1.16 million tons [5][6] 3.2 Disk Situation - The fuel oil showed a volatile trend this week. The main contract closed at 2,991 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 1.22%. The highest price was 3,008 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 2,967 yuan per ton. The position decreased by 13,077 lots from April 21 to April 25 [10]

撰写品种：沥青 撰写时间：2025 年 4 月 28 日 回顾周期：周度 研究员 ：何宁 咨询证号：Z0001219 沥青周度报告 一、本周沥青期货行情回顾 本周沥青期货主力合约 BU2506 呈现先扬后抑的态势。主力合约开盘价为 3369 元 / 吨，周内最高价触及 3430 元 / 吨，最低价下探至 3345 元 / 吨，最终收盘价 为 3401 元 / 吨，较上周收盘价下跌 5 元，跌幅 0.15%。结算价为 3385 元 / 吨。 成交量方面：本周累计成交约 85 万手，日均成交 17 万手，较上周活跃度有所下 降。持仓量环比上周减持 19448 手，收于 14.36 万手，显示市场资金参与度有所降低。 供给端：国内 54 家主要沥青企业厂库库存为 89.7 万吨，环比下降 3.6 万吨。 不过，国内 104 家贸易商库存为 194.6 万吨，虽环比仅下降 0.2 万吨，但整体库存 水平仍处于高位。 需求端：尽管天气持续转暖，理论上有利于道路施工等下游需求的释放，但实际情 况并不乐观。重交沥青开工率仅为 28.5%，虽较上周略有上升，但仍处于历史同期较低 水平。改性沥青产能利用率为 7.2%，环比增加 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The steel market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling last week, with minor fluctuations. The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils diverged, with rebar production slightly decreasing and coil production increasing. Rebar continued to reduce inventory, and the supply and demand of hot-rolled coils were also good. However, the impact of increased tariffs on hot-rolled coil demand has not been fully released, and there is still an expectation of weakening demand in the market. Meanwhile, the apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly after reaching its peak, and there is a strong expectation that the demand for building materials has reached its peak. Currently, the supply and demand of steel are in a good state, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The market may continue to fluctuate under the influence of raw material prices and demand expectations [3][6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The steel market rose first and then fell last week, with the iron ore on the raw material side remaining strong. The increase in hot metal data last week supported the ore price. Due to the increase in tariffs, the expectation of weakening steel exports has persisted, causing minor fluctuations in the black market prices [3]. - In terms of industries, rebar production decreased slightly, hot-rolled coil production increased, and the total steel inventory continued to decline. The rebar 2510 contract rose by 25 yuan/ton, a 0.81% increase; the hot-rolled coil 2510 contract rose by 23 yuan/ton, a 0.72% increase; and the iron ore 2509 contract rose by 10 yuan/ton, a 1.14% increase [3]. - The peak rebar demand declined last week, the steel mill capacity slightly decreased, and the total rebar inventory continued to decline. The fundamentals of rebar supply and demand were good, and the inventory reduction cycle continued. However, the peak annual rebar demand may have occurred and may gradually decline later. The capacity of hot-rolled coils continued to increase, demand slightly increased, and the total inventory decreased. The fundamentals of hot-rolled coils should pay attention to the impact of trade policy changes on exports [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, steel supply continued to grow last week. Rebar production decreased slightly, while coil production increased. The capacity of major steel coil products has been continuously recovering recently, while the apparent demand for rebar has declined, and the apparent demand for coils has slightly increased. The total steel inventory decreased [5]. - The sales of building material rebar decreased significantly compared to the previous week, increasing the probability that the annual rebar demand has reached its peak. The weekly production of building material rebar was 2.2911 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons. The weekly production of hot-rolled coils was 3.175 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons. The weekly production of five major steel products was 8.7584 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 31,300 tons. The total inventory of five major steel products was 15.3424 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 504,100 tons [5]. - The demand for rebar decreased by 138,800 tons, the rebar inventory decreased by 308,300 tons, and the steel mill's rebar capacity slightly decreased, maintaining inventory reduction. The hot-rolled coil capacity increased by 31,000 tons, the apparent demand slightly increased by 2,000 tons, and the coil inventory decreased by 68,600 tons [5]. Market Outlook - The steel market may continue to fluctuate under the influence of raw material price costs and demand expectations. Although the supply and demand of steel are currently in a good state, there is an expectation of weakening demand. The impact of increased tariffs on hot-rolled coil demand has not been fully released, and the demand for rebar may have reached its peak [6]. - The hot metal production reached a new high last week, and the supply and demand of raw material ore were balanced, with no downward pressure on prices. The demand for raw material ore remains relatively stable [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market recently shows a trend of growth in both supply and demand. Supply is expected to increase as most plants resume production before the holiday, while demand has been delayed by weather but is likely to improve. The market is in a traditional peak season, and enterprise inventories are expected to gradually decline. There may be positive arbitrage opportunities between the September and January contracts. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: The urea futures market declined this week, with the main contract UR2509 dropping 0.9% to close at 1,757 yuan/ton. Trading volume was high, with the main contract accounting for 89.09% of the total 1.321 million lots. Technically, the price oscillated around the 20 - day moving average, and the MACD indicated a sideways pattern. The basis of the UR2509 contract was stable, with the Shandong basis at 55 yuan/ton and the Henan basis at 49 yuan/ton. [3] - **Supply**: The domestic urea operating rate was 83.61%, down 2.13 percentage points from last week due to some temporary plant shutdowns. It is expected to rise next week. Enterprise profits declined due to delayed demand but may recover as the operating rate increases. [3] - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventories increased by 158,800 tons to 1.065 million tons, and advance orders decreased by 0.17 days to 5.12 days. Port inventories rose slightly to 117,000 tons. Delayed demand led to the inventory increase, but it is expected to decline as demand recovers. [4] - **Demand**: The compound fertilizer operating rate dropped 4.18 percentage points to 43.54%, with weak market sentiment and high finished - product inventories. The melamine operating rate increased, and its profit improved due to lower raw material prices. Near the May Day holiday, downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs. The industry is in a peak season, and export policies remain tight. [5] 3.2 Conclusion - The urea market has growth in both supply and demand. Supply will increase as plants resume, and demand, though delayed, is expected to improve. The traditional peak season may help reduce inventories. There may be positive arbitrage opportunities between the September and January contracts. Attention should be paid to the overall commodity market sentiment and macro - economic changes. [6]