Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is mainly supported by downstream purchases, but the production increase of cathode and battery factories in July is small, and the purchasing power mainly comes from traders with limited space. Due to the price rebound, the supply increase in July is large, deepening the oversupply situation and dragging down the price increase, and there is no sign of production reduction in the ore end. It is expected that the downward pressure on the futures price of lithium carbonate will intensify as the purchasing pace slows down [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 62,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 250 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,950 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 250 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2507 is 63,600 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.5%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 63,920 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.22%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 63,660 yuan/ton, with no change; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 63,520 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.16%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 63,340 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.06% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 654 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 44 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 775 yuan/ton; the average price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1327.5 yuan/ton; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 4375 yuan/ton; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 5200 yuan/ton [1][2] Positive Electrode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,770 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 65 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,760 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 120 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,805 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 250 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,255 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 90 yuan/ton [2] Price Difference - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan/ton, with no change; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 1110 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 130 yuan/ton; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 260 yuan/ton, with an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 400 yuan/ton, with an increase of 80 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 138,347 tons, with an increase of 1510 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 58,890 tons, with a decrease of 142 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 40,497 tons, with a decrease of 138 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 38,960 tons, with an increase of 1790 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 15,555 tons, with a decrease of 5481 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 61,715 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 28 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 66,522 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 6352 yuan/ton [3] Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to further promote local processing. As a top lithium - producing country in Africa, Zimbabwe has banned the export of lithium ore since 2022 to encourage miners to do more processing domestically [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate. The potential extension of the tariff suspension period and the strong US June non - farm data may suppress gold prices, but the uncertainty of tariff policies and China's continuous gold reserve increase may support gold prices. Silver shows better resilience than gold due to improved risk appetite and reduced US economic downside risks, but may be relatively pressured if tariff policies are disturbed [4]. - In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged due to the ongoing trade war, the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut, global geopolitical uncertainties, and central banks' gold - buying. It is recommended to allocate gold on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Gold and Silver - **15 - point Prices on July 7, 2025**: London gold spot, London silver spot, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver were all 0.00. AU2508 was 769.12 yuan/gram, AG2508 was 8872.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) and AG (T + D) were 0.00 [3]. - **15 - point Prices on July 4, 2025**: London gold spot was 3342.39 dollars/ounce, London silver spot was 36.85 dollars/ounce, COMEX gold was 3351.90 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was 37.04 dollars/ounce, AU2508 was 774.88 yuan/gram, AG2508 was 8919.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 772.60 yuan/gram, AG (T + D) was 8901.00 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Price Changes**: The price of domestic and foreign gold and silver decreased, with the largest decline of 100.0% [3]. 2. Spread/Ratio Tracking - **15 - point Prices on July 7, 2025**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 769.12 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 8872 yuan/kilogram, etc [3]. - **15 - point Prices on July 4, 2025**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 2.28 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 18 yuan/kilogram, etc [3]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 33633.3%, and the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price increased by 49188.9% [3]. 3. Position Data - **July 3, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 256077 contracts, etc [3]. - **July 2, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 260586 contracts, etc [3]. - **Position Changes**: COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 1.73%, and COMEX gold non - commercial short positions increased by 1.89% [3]. 4. Inventory Data - **July 7, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 21456.00 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 1330695.00 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory was 36785583 ounces, COMEX silver inventory was 499281076 ounces [3]. - **July 4, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 21456 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 1339746 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory was 37048200 ounces, COMEX silver inventory was 500183447 ounces [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.68%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.71%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.18% [3]. 5. Related Market Data - **July 7, 2025**: The US dollar index was 7.15 [4]. - **July 3, 2025**: The US dollar index was 97.12, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, the VIX was 16.38, the S&P 500 was 6279.35, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 67.18, and NYMEX crude oil was 1000 [4]. - **Market Data Changes**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.04%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 2.65%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.16%, the VIX decreased by 1.56%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.83%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.52% [4]. 6. Market News and Analysis - **News**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that trade negotiations between the US and the EU were progressing, and major news might be announced in the next two days. Trump and the US Treasury Secretary said that countries would start paying new tariffs on August 1. China's gold reserves at the end of June were reported to be 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) from the previous month [4]. - **Analysis**: On July 7, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.54% to 771.31 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.5% to 8872 yuan/kilogram. In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate, and silver prices are relatively resilient. In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic inventory accumulation pressure is expected to weigh on the basis and near - month futures prices. The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of destocking for soybean meal in the fourth quarter, and the center of the far - month contracts is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, it is expected that US soybeans will rise and the premium will fall, and the overall downside space of the futures prices is expected to be limited [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - On July 7th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 3 with a change of 7, in Tianjin it was - 57 with a change of - 3, in Rizhao it was - 107, in Zhangjiagang it was - 137 with a change of - 3, in Dongguan it was - 117 with a change of 17, in Zhanjiang it was - 67 with a change of 17, and in Fangcheng it was - 87 with a change of 17. The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 79 with a change of 8 [4]. - The M9 - M1 spread, M9 - RM9 spread, RM9 - 1 spread, and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented in the report, along with their historical trends and current values. For example, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 358, and the futures spread of the main contracts was 320 [5]. 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1747, the soybean CNF premium, and the import soybean futures gross profit and crushing profit are provided. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is 86%, lower than the same period last year, and short - term temperature and rainfall show no significant abnormalities [5]. - Chinese port soybean inventories and major domestic oil mill soybean inventories have increased to high levels. The major domestic oil mill soybean meal inventories are accelerating the accumulation, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days are rising [5][6]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The May customs soybean import volume was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The expected arrivals in June, July, and August are at high levels, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [5][6]. - Demand: From the perspective of livestock inventory, the pig supply is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition has increased, and the提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein. The soybean meal trading volume fluctuates [6].

【钢材】情绪冷静,日线收绿 周一期现价格小跌,基差暂稳,建材贸易成交再度回落至10wt下方,情绪退温后,价格乏力。"反内卷"情绪带来的脉沖 反弹,最先表达为期价上冲;我们昨日也有提到,能带动的现货跟涨动能持续性并不够,导致基差快速压缩,个别区域或 牌再现期货升水,利于期现正套以及套保头寸的主动入场。不过市场上对限产的关注度也在拔高,7月~8月预计会有不定期 限产行为,虽然从市场化的角度来看,钢厂生产利润不错,主动限、减产的意愿并不强,但行政性的扰动概率会增加,这 点要保持关注。当下现货受浓香影响大,市场看涨信心在淡季里并不坚挺,现货商不追涨,现货持货意愿不强,有利润快波 兑现以及高周转,感觉仍是市场的主流思路,情绪降温后或有短波段价格回落的风险。 胎色金属数据目报 | 2025/07/08 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - In the off - season of demand and high - inventory situation, pulp is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 5, 2025, SP2601 was 5276, down 0.08% day - on - day and up 0.42% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5040, down 0.51% day - on - day and down 0.16% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5074, up 0.12% day - on - day and up 0.20% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 5, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5120, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Golden was 4020, unchanged [1]. - **Outer - Disk Quotes**: The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560 dollars, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged [1]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4587, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, down 4.75% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 129.3 tons, up 7.84% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in June 2025 was 140 tons, up 3.3% from May. The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed certain fluctuations from May 22 to July 3, 2025 [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 3, 2025, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 221.3 tons, a 2.3% increase from the previous period. The delivery - warehouse inventory also had some changes during the period [1]. - **Demand**: From May 22 to July 3, 2025, the production of major finished papers such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed small - scale fluctuations, with a slight overall increase this week. However, the finished - paper prices were continuously low, providing weak support for pulp [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 5, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 46, with a quantile level of 0.795; the Silver Star basis was 826, with a quantile level of 0.956 [1]. - **Import Profit**: On July 5, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 16, with a quantile level of 0.649; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 567, with a quantile level of 0.187 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, domestic commodities continued a slight rebound, with both industrial and agricultural products extending their upward trends. The main reasons were the economic resilience of China and the US, a mitigation of geopolitical risks, and a weakening US dollar, which improved market risk appetite and led to the commodity market rebound [3]. - The US labor market showed some resilience in June, but due to a high proportion of government employment and potential future downward revisions, continued monitoring is needed. The Fed may increase the flexibility of interest - rate cuts, and there is a possibility of a rate cut in September [3]. - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill passed by the US Congress is expected to boost the GDP by an average of 1.0% over ten years (2025 - 2034) and increase long - term GDP by 1.2%. However, it may widen the wealth gap and raise concerns about US fiscal sustainability [3]. - The US is in the final stage of trade negotiations, and Trump has signed tariff letters for 12 countries with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 70%, set to take effect on August 1 [3]. - China's official manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, indicating an overall improvement in the domestic economy. However, the manufacturing sector has not emerged from contraction, and small enterprises and emerging industries face significant pressure. There are still concerns about the domestic economic development, and new incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year [3]. - In the short term, uncertainty in the commodity market has increased, and market volatility may intensify. Although there are positive factors such as economic resilience and geopolitical easing, the approaching end of the US tariff suspension period and slow negotiation progress may cause market disruptions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Labor Market**: In June, the US added 147,000 non - farm jobs, higher than the expected 106,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%. However, due to a high proportion of government employment and potential future downward revisions, continued monitoring is required. The Fed may increase the flexibility of interest - rate cuts, and a rate cut in September is possible [3]. - **US Tax Bill**: The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill passed by the US Congress is expected to boost the GDP by an average of 1.0% over ten years (2025 - 2034) and increase long - term GDP by 1.2%. But it may widen the wealth gap and raise concerns about US fiscal sustainability [3]. - **US Trade Negotiations**: The US is in the final stage of trade negotiations. Trump has signed tariff letters for 12 countries with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 70%, set to take effect on August 1 [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **China's PMI**: China's official manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, indicating an overall improvement in the domestic economy. However, the manufacturing sector has not emerged from contraction, and small enterprises and emerging industries face significant pressure. The Strategic Emerging Industries PMI (EPMI) decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 47.9%, a new low for the year [3][21]. - **Domestic Economic Concerns**: There are still concerns about the domestic economic development. Externally, the end of the US tariff suspension period is approaching, and the progress of trade negotiations is slow. Domestically, the real estate market has seen a decline in both volume and price, and emerging industries face pressure. New incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: On July 4, the operating rates of PTA plants, polyester plants, and POY were 76%, 89%, and 64% respectively [32]. - **Automobile Sales Data**: The data shows the trends of factory wholesale and retail sales and their year - on - year changes [35]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The data presents the average wholesale prices of various agricultural products such as vegetables, pork, fruits, and the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index [40].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 市场缺乏驱动，橡胶震荡表现 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-07-07 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:市场缺乏驱动，橡胶震荡表现 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）国内产区：本周海南产区受持续降雨天气影响，岛内新胶生产释放进度缓慢听闻全岛日 收胶量大致在1000-2000吨左右。云南产区持续性降雨阻碍 割胶作业，胶水产量有限，原料供应趋紧推动收购价格上行。（2）泰国产区：目前泰国整体原料供应稳定上量，受制于浓乳需求疲软拖拽，胶水价格持 | | | | 续下跌， 干胶厂仍有加价抢原料生产，杯水价差缩窄。（3）越南产区：越南产区已进入季节性增产周期，随着本周降水量较上周呈现明显回落，天气改 | | | | 善促使割胶作业逐 步恢复，原料供应量实现环比增长，原 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the container shipping industry is neutral, suggesting short - term observation [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot freight rate of the container shipping index is fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the new round of tariffs. Multiple factors such as shipping company operations, political - economic situations, supply and demand of shipping capacity, and market sentiment all have an impact on the market [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rate**: The situation varies among different alliances and time periods. In early July, the overall price range is 2900 - 3600, with a central price of 3200. In late July, prices in some alliances have increased. The overall impact on the freight rate is neutral [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Trump plans to impose tariffs ranging from 10% - 20% to 60% - 70%, starting on August 1st. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates before September has dropped from 98% to about 80%. OPEC + will increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. There are also trade frictions between China and the EU. The overall impact on the market is neutral [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: At the beginning of July, new ships were delivered, and the shipping capacity of some routes returned to the European line, with a weekly capacity of 314,000 TEU, a 12% increase compared to June. Port strikes in Europe have led to about a 15% loss of effective shipping capacity. There is congestion at ports in Asia. The overall impact on the market is neutral [3] - **Demand**: There was continuous over - booking in early July, but the subsequent peak - season inventory demand in Europe is expected to be weaker than expected, and the cargo volume support is insufficient. The overall impact on the market is neutral [3] - **Market**: This week, affected by Maersk's flat - opening in the third week of July being higher than market expectations, the market fluctuated upward. The main contract has recovered from a deep discount state, but the upward trend is expected to be limited [3] - **Investment and Trading Strategies**: The investment view is short - term observation. The trading strategy is to hold a long position in the 12 - 4 spread arbitrage while remaining on the sidelines for single - side trading [3] 3.2 Price - The spot market has slow demand recovery, high supply, the establishment of new alliances, and price drops in the off - season [5] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are order volume data divided by different loading capacities over the years, including the proportion of the order book to the fleet for different types of container ships [16][17] - **New Orders**: New order volume data are presented for different loading capacities of container ships from 2022 - 2025 [18][19] - **Delivery Volume**: Delivery volume data for different loading capacities of container ships from 2020 - 2025 are shown, as well as demolition volume data [24][25] - **Future Delivery**: Future delivery volume data are provided, including data by quarter and by loading capacity from 2023 - 2029 [30][32] - **Ship - breaking Price**: Ship - breaking price data for different loading capacities and the new - building price index and second - hand ship price index of container ships are presented [37][43] - **Existing Shipping Capacity**: Data on the existing shipping capacity of container ships, including the proportion of ships over 25 years old, idle and retrofit ratios, average age, and ship - breaking average age, are provided [52][58] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule**: The total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports is shown, including the capacity deployment of different alliances such as PA + MSC, GEMINI, and OCEAN [66][67] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: Data on container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, average installation age and duration, and average speed are presented [77][83] - **Idle Shipping Capacity**: Data on idle shipping capacity, including the amount, proportion, and breakdown by loading capacity, are provided [88][89]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 基本面有支撑，市场有题材 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-07-07 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 产量持稳。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.78万吨，比26日+0.64%。行业开工率为75.68%，比26日+0.68个百分点；行业产能利用率为78.88%， 比26日+0.5个百分点。本周2条产线点火，尚未出玻璃，1条前期点火产线开始出玻璃，所以周度产量环比增加。下周暂无生产线点火或者放水 | | | | 计划，1条前期点火产线或将开始出玻璃，预计下周周度产量环比增长。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 淡季需求整体承压，但短期保有韧性，产销尚可。中期地产颓势难挽，竣工数据同比延续下滑，后市需求担忧犹存。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 库存震荡，企业库存6908.5万重箱，环比-13.1万重箱，环比-0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US non - farm payroll data has dampened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and there is a risk of correction in the non - ferrous metals market, especially for copper, zinc, nickel, and stainless steel [1][9][87][205]. - For copper, due to factors such as improved non - farm data, eased overseas squeeze - out risks, and high prices suppressing downstream demand, copper prices face downward pressure [9]. - For zinc, the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged, and it can be considered as a short - position variety in the non - ferrous metals sector [87]. - For nickel and stainless steel, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Factors include changes in macro - policies, raw material prices, and inventory levels [205][206]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - Ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - **Price Data**: Provided the closing prices, daily, weekly, and annual price changes of various non - ferrous metals such as the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and multiple metal varieties. For example, the US dollar index was at 97.0, with a daily decline of 0.13%, a weekly decline of 0.28%, and an annual decline of 10.59% [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Macro**: Negative factors include strong US non - farm data, Trump's signing of the "Great Beauty" bill, and tariff threats [9]. - **Raw Material**: Positive factors are a slight increase in copper concentrate spot processing fees and an increase in domestic copper ore port inventories [9]. - **Smelting**: Slightly bearish, with smelters using spot copper ore having continuous losses, and those using long - term contracts seeing reduced profits [9]. - **Demand**: Negative, as the arrival of the off - season and high copper prices have led to a significant decline in domestic copper product operating rates [9]. - **Inventory**: Negative, with global copper visible inventories increasing and the LME spot premium compressing [9]. - **Investment View**: Bearish, with copper prices at risk of correction [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term correction risk for unilateral trading; long copper and short zinc for arbitrage [9]. 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Macro**: Neutral, including factors such as Trump signing a budget bill, strong US non - farm data, and China's plan to regulate the photovoltaic industry [87]. - **Raw Material**: Neutral, with domestic processing fees unchanged, import processing fees slightly increased, and short - term supply remaining relatively loose [87]. - **Smelting**: Bearish, as July sees a combination of maintenance, resumption, and new production, with monthly output expected to increase [87]. - **Demand**: Neutral, with the off - season and tariff uncertainties affecting demand [87]. - **Inventory**: Neutral, with social inventories continuously increasing [87]. - **Investment View**: Bearish, suitable as a short - position variety in the non - ferrous metals sector [87]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for unilateral trading; long copper and short zinc for arbitrage [87]. 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI - SS) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Macro**: Neutral, with the US non - farm data affecting interest - rate cut expectations, and Trump's tariff policies and domestic "anti - involution" policies causing market sentiment to fluctuate [205][206]. - **Raw Material**: Neutral, with a slight decrease in the premium of Indonesian domestic trade pyrometallurgical nickel ore, an increase in smelter inventories, and a seasonal increase in Philippine shipments [205]. - **Smelting**: Slightly bearish, with high - level pure nickel production, weakening demand, and supply pressure on ferronickel [205]. - **Demand**: Bearish, with stainless steel in the off - season, weak spot transactions, and uncertain new - energy demand [205]. - **Inventory**: Neutral, with inventory levels remaining stable [205]. - **Investment View**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with attention to factors such as policy changes and cost fluctuations [205]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies for unilateral trading; wait for arbitrage [205][206].