1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is still uncertain about whether the mica mines in Jiangxi will stop production. If there is a short - term suspension for rectification and then复产 after the mining certificates are compliant, considering the large recent downstream stocking and the supplement from surrounding compliant mines, the impact on the balance sheet is expected to be limited. There may be a further increase in futures prices from a market sentiment perspective, but the upside is limited as the previous increase has already priced in the impact of the suspension [2]. - If the mining certificates are successfully renewed and production does not stop, the supply will remain in a loose pattern. Considering the large downstream stocking, full previous pricing, and small increase in downstream production scheduling, the futures prices may be revised downwards and return to the fundamental logic [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 71,100 yuan, with a daily increase of 150 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 69,000 yuan, with a daily increase of 150 yuan [1]. Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 70,000 yuan, with a daily increase of 3.24%; for 2509, it is 71,920 yuan, with a 5.3% increase; for 2510, it is 72,200 yuan, with a 5.31% increase; for 2511, it is 72,300 yuan, with a 5.36% increase; for 2512, it is 72,580 yuan, with a 5.34% increase [1]. Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 757 yuan, with a daily increase of 9 yuan. The price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1090 yuan, with a daily increase of 25 yuan; for lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%), it is 1750 yuan, with a 60 - yuan increase; for phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%), it is 5550 yuan, with a 275 - yuan increase; for phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%), it is 6500 yuan, with a 300 - yuan increase [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,570 yuan, with a 35 - yuan increase; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,260 yuan, with a 30 - yuan increase; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,945 yuan, with a 50 - yuan increase; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,535 yuan, with a 20 - yuan increase [2]. Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2100 yuan, with a change of 0.2 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 1200 yuan, with a change of - 2530 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 280 yuan, with a change of - 80 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 380 yuan, with a change of - 20 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 142,418 tons, with an increase of 692 tons. The weekly inventory of smelters is 50,999 tons, with a decrease of 959 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream is 48,159 tons, with an increase of 2271 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 43,260 tons, with a decrease of 620 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 16,443 tons, with an increase of 1420 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 68,214 yuan, and the profit is 1863 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 75,753 yuan, and the profit is - 7557 yuan [2].

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a "Sugar Data Daily" by ITG Guomao Futures [3] Group 2: Core View - The current sugar market shows a pattern of "strong overseas, weak domestic". International sugar prices are dominated by Brazil's production increase and crude oil fluctuations, while the domestic market faces the dual pressures of processed sugar impact and weak demand. In the medium to long term, with a global surplus, the upside for sugar prices is limited. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading approach [4] Group 3: Domestic Sugar Price and Futures Data - On August 7, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 6030 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Chenming, Yunnan it was 5830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Dali, Yunnan it was 5715 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Rizhao, Shandong it was 6090 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - SR09 was at 5667, down 16; SR01 was down 43; SR09 - 01 was 82, up 27 [4] Group 4: Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.202, down 0.0050; the real - RMB exchange rate was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the rupee - RMB exchange rate was 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - The ice raw sugar主力 was at 16.04, unchanged; the London white sugar主力 was at 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 was at 66.96, unchanged [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the spot prices of methanol in many regions increased slightly. The inventory of enterprises in the northwest main production area was at a low level, and the willingness of downstream and traders to replenish at low prices increased, leading to higher transaction prices in enterprise auctions. The positive sentiment in the futures market drove smooth transactions of new local orders in the afternoon, and some enterprises stopped selling to support prices, pushing up the spot prices. The downstream market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode, and procurement became more rational after low - price replenishment. The market trend depends on the downstream procurement transactions on Tuesday. In the short term, the methanol price will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium to long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - The prices of Jincheng anthracite and Inner Mongolia steam coal remained unchanged at 900.00 and 630.00 respectively. The price of Sichuan - Chongqing LPG decreased by 20.00 to 4350.00, and the international natural gas price dropped by 0.12 to 11.30. The prices of methanol in Taicang and Shandong decreased by 5.00 to 2380.00 and 2330.00 respectively, while the price in Inner Mongolia remained at 2100.00. The prices in other regions such as China, Southeast Asia, Northwest Europe, and the United States remained unchanged [1]. Supply - Domestic methanol production decreased by 2050.00 to 261955.00, and the domestic operating rate decreased by 0.63 to 81.10. The international operating rate remained at 69.95, and the arrival weight remained at 29.54 [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory remained unchanged at 324520.00 and 808400.00 respectively [1]. Demand - The order backlog remained at 230725.00. The prices of methanol from different sources such as Hebei coke oven gas, Inner Mongolia coal - based, Shandong coal - based, and Shanxi coal - based changed, with Inner Mongolia coal - based and Shandong coal - based increasing by 21.00, and Shanxi coal - based increasing by 23.00 [1]. Operating Rates - The operating rates of MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, wax dewaxing, chloride, MTBE, etc. remained unchanged, with the formaldehyde (Shandong) price remaining at 940.00, the dimethyl ether price at 3250.00, etc. [1]. Associated Product Prices - The price of methane chloride decreased by 50.00 to 2090.00, and the price of MTBE increased by 30.00 to 5050.00, while the prices of acetic acid and other products changed or remained unchanged [1].

Report Summary Core View - In the context of the expected new crop harvest and the reality of old - crop inventory shortage, the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness is prominent. From late July to early August, multiple policies and industry events are in the window period. Domestic policy - related meeting contents, Sino - US trade negotiation progress, the realization of new cotton harvest, whether the import sliding - scale duty quota will be increased and the increase amount have a significant impact on the Zhengzhou cotton outlook, especially the increase of import sliding - scale duty quota has a greater impact on the old - crop supply - demand and near - term contracts [4] Data Summary Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on August 7 was 13835, down 15 (-0.11%) from August 6; CF09 was 13670, down 20 (-0.15%); CF09 - 01 was - 165, down 5 from August 6 [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang on August 7, the price was 15089, up 6 (0.04%); in Henan it was 15220, up 15 (0.10%); in Shandong it was 15169, up 20 (0.13%); Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1419, up 26 [3] Domestic Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic cotton yarn futures CY on August 7 was 19705, down 5 (-0.03%); domestic cotton yarn spot C32S price index was 20620, down 20 (-0.10%) [3] US Cotton Spot - US cotton spot CT (USD/ pound) on August 7 was 67, unchanged (0.00%); the arrival price was 76.50, down 0.5 (-0.65%); 1% quota pick - up price was 13480, down 87 (-0.64%); sliding - scale duty pick - up price was 14282, down 53 (-0.37%) [3] Spread Data - Yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 5870, up 10; yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 802, up 34; the spot internal - external spread was 1689, up 107 [3][4]

Market Performance Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.45% to 3639.99 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.66%, the North Exchange 50 rose 1.58%, the STAR 50 rose 0.58%, the Wind All A rose 0.62%, the Wind A500 rose 0.35%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.41%. A-share trading volume reached 1.76 trillion yuan, compared with 1.62 trillion yuan the previous day [8] Index Quotes Index Closing Prices and Changes - The Shanghai 50 closed at 2797.4234, up 0.24%, with a trading volume of 884.43 billion yuan and a turnover of 41.18 billion [4] - The CSI 300 closed at 4113.4852, up 0.24%, with a trading volume of 3076.75 billion yuan and a turnover of 176.68 billion [4] - The CSI 1000 closed at 6861.3091, up 1.09%, with a trading volume of 3990.56 billion yuan and a turnover of 258.13 billion [4] CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading - For the Shanghai 50, option trading volume was 2.85 million contracts (1.87 million for call options and 0.98 million for put options, PCR 0.53), and open interest was 7.50 million contracts (4.80 million for call options and 2.70 million for put options, PCR 0.56) [4] - For the CSI 300, option trading volume was 7.28 million contracts (4.88 million for call options and 2.40 million for put options, PCR 0.49), and open interest was 20.85 million contracts (12.11 million for call options and 8.73 million for put options, PCR 0.72) [4] - For the CSI 1000, option trading volume was 23.48 million contracts (13.24 million for call options and 10.24 million for put options, PCR 0.77), and open interest was 28.43 million contracts (13.49 million for call options and 14.93 million for put options, PCR 1.11) [4] Volatility Analysis Shanghai 50 Volatility - Historical volatility and next - month at - the - money implied volatility curves are presented [8][12] CSI 300 Volatility - Historical volatility and next - month at - the - money implied volatility curves are presented [12] CSI 1000 Volatility - Historical volatility and next - month at - the - money implied volatility curves are presented [9]

Group 1: Core View - The growth of US soybeans is in good condition, and the trade policies between the US and other countries show no obvious signs of easing, putting pressure on the US market, but the downside space is expected to be limited. The current trade situation between China and the US may keep the Brazilian premium strong. The domestic market presents a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with the NO1 contract expected to fluctuate strongly, but the short - term strong performance of soybean oil suppresses the performance of soybean meal. Follow - up attention should be paid to whether the USDA August supply - demand report will raise the US soybean yield per unit and the domestic import situation of Argentine soybean meal [6][7] - In terms of supply, the good - rate of US soybeans has risen to 70% this week. Although the rainfall in the production areas will be slightly less in the next two weeks without obvious high - temperature, the expected impact is limited. Under the pressure of the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to continue to be abundant. The purchase of ships from October to January is progressing slowly, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month under the current China - US trade policy [6] - In terms of demand, the breeding cycles of pigs and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the far - month pig supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal has increased this week [7] - In terms of inventory, the domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level; soybean meal has a small inventory reduction but is still in the inventory accumulation cycle; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have decreased [7] Group 2: Data Summary Basis Data - The basis data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions and time periods are presented, including the basis of soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang on August 6, the basis of 43% soybean meal spot, the basis of rapeseed meal spot, etc. For example, the basis of soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang on August 6 is - 23 [5] Spread Data - The spread data include the M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, RM9 - 1 spreads, the spot spread and the main - contract spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal. For example, the M9 - 1 spread is - 46, and the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 281 [6] Other Data - The data also involve the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, the soybean CNF premium, the import soybean gross profit, the inventory of soybeans in Chinese ports and major oil mills, the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises, the inventory of soybean meal in major oil mills, the start - up rate and the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The sentiment of macro commodities has turned positive recently, and prices are expected to rise in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On August 6, 2025, the price of SP2601 was 5428, with a daily increase of 0.44% and a decrease of 1.34% compared to the Japanese version; SP2605 was 5404, with a daily decrease of 0.30% and a decrease of 1.22% compared to the Japanese version; SP2509 was 5170, with a daily increase of 0.19% and a decrease of 2.93% compared to the Japanese version [1] - The spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.18% compared to the Japanese version; Russian Needle was 5180, unchanged and down 4.43%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4080, unchanged and down 1.69% [1] Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% from the previous period; Chilean Star was 500 dollars, down 10.71%; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged [1] - The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% from the previous period; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60%; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1] Supply - In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% from May; broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% [1] - The shipment volume of W20 to China in May 2025 was 140, up 3.30% from April [1] - The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in July 2025 [1] Inventory - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of Chinese pulp mainstream ports was 210.5 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.8% decline [1] - The inventory of the futures delivery warehouse also showed certain changes during the period [1] Demand - The production of major finished papers decreased slightly this week, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] Valuation - On August 6, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 10, with a quantile level of 0.72; Silver Star basis was 680, with a quantile level of 0.904 [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34, with a quantile level of 0.545; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 21, with a quantile level of 0.613 [1]

【硅铁锰硅】情绪或有反复,价格仍有较大波动 虽然政策预期摇摆,但是前期交易的部分反内卷逻辑将继续发力,对双硅价格形成支撑,市场情绪仍有反复,价格波动较 大。反内卷对黑色包括双硅而言,主要是供给的减量和成本的支撑。基本面钢厂利润修复,铁水和电炉开工维持高位,供给 延续小幅增量,库存去化为主,表明双硅供需有韧性。不过当前行业库存包括合金厂库存、钢厂库存和交割库库存仍偏高, 去化压力犹存。随着期货价格大幅拉升,前期的合金厂大幅亏损的状态已经扭亏为盈,行业平均利润大幅修复。 | | | | | | | | E | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/08/07 | | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 Z0010820 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report views sugar bullishly but advises against chasing the upward trend [3][4]. 2. Core View - Sugar should be viewed bullishly, but it's not advisable to chase the upward trend. There is an expectation of a bumper harvest in China, while there is a temporary supply tightness in Brazil. The 01 contract may experience a tail - end rally, and it can be operated strongly when it pulls back to the previous low [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Sugar Price and Basis - In Guangxi, the price in Nanning Warehouse is 6050 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis with SR09 is 367 yuan/ton; in Kunming, it's 5840 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, and the basis is 257 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; in Dali, it's 5725 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan, and the basis is 182 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. In Shandong, the price in Rizhao is 6090 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, and the basis is 307 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [4]. - SR09 is at 5686 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; SR01 is at 5628 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; SR09 - 01 is 55 yuan, down 4 yuan [4]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Prices - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.207, up 0.0105; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - The ICE raw sugar主力 is at 16.09 with no change; the London white sugar主力 is at 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 is at 67.68 with no change [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-shares continued to rise strongly with ample market liquidity, and the margin balance returned above 2 trillion yuan for the first time in a decade, with the margin trading balance reaching a new high since July 1, 2015. The current stock index valuation is still supported, and it is advisable to buy stock indices opportunistically [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Money and Bond Market - DROO1 closed at 1.32 with a 0.10 bp increase, DR007 at 1.46 with a 1.12 bp increase, GC001 at 1.50 with a 4.50 bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.49 with a 0.50 bp increase [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.56 with a 0.10 bp increase, LPR 5-year at 3.50 with no change, 1-year treasury bond at 1.37 with a 0.52 bp decrease, 5-year treasury bond at 1.56 with a 0.97 bp decrease, 10-year treasury bond at 1.70 with a 0.40 bp decrease, and 10-year US treasury bond at 4.22 with no change [4] - The central bank conducted 138.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with 309 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 170.5 billion yuan. This week, 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 495.8 billion, 449.2 billion, 309 billion, 283.2 billion, and 126 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] - In July, the SLF had a net withdrawal of 300 million yuan, MLF a net injection of 10 billion yuan, PSL a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan, short-term reverse repurchase a net injection of 18.8 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase a net injection of 20 billion yuan. No open market treasury bond transactions were conducted in July [4] Stock Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4113 with a 0.24% increase, SSE 50 at 2797 with a 0.24% increase, CSI 500 at 6357 with a 0.86% increase, and CSI 1000 at 6861 with a 1.09% increase [5] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.7341 trillion yuan, an increase of 138 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors rose, with the shipbuilding sector rising significantly, and the rubber products, motor, aerospace, gaming, general equipment, and auto parts sectors leading the gains, while the traditional Chinese medicine, pharmaceutical commerce, and chemical pharmaceutical sectors led the losses [5] - IF volume was 73,908 with an 8.2% decrease, and open interest was 253,006 with a 1.0% decrease; IH volume was 36,686 with a 9.9% decrease, and open interest was 91,160 with a 1.7% decrease; IC volume was 72,137 with a 9.5% increase, and open interest was 219,342 with a 2.0% increase; IM volume was 176,382 with a 13.6% increase, and open interest was 341,310 with a 3.4% increase [5] Futures Premium and Discount Situation - Premium and discount rates for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, with specific values for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts [7]