Guo Mao Qi Huo
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纸浆数据日报-20250811
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 06:06
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp futures are expected to run strongly [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 8, 2025, SP2601 was 5436 with a daily decrease of 0.22% and a weekly increase of 0.37%; SP2605 was 5414 with a daily increase of 0.15% and a weekly decrease of 0.85%; SP2509 was 5162 with a daily and weekly decrease of 0.46% [1] - **Spot Prices**: On the same day, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850 with no daily or weekly change; Russian coniferous pulp was 5180 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 2.26%; broad - leaf pulp Golden was 4080 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.97% [1] - **Foreign Quotes and Import Costs**: Foreign quotes of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.70% month - on - month to 720 dollars, and its import cost decreased by 2.68% to 5884; Chilean Star decreased by 10.71% to 500 dollars, and its import cost decreased by 10.60% to 4101; Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 620 dollars, and its import cost remained at 5073 [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.09% compared to May; the shipment volume of pulp to China in May was 140 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.30% compared to April. The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp had minor fluctuations [1] - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 204.8 tons, a decrease of 5.7 tons compared to the previous period, a 2.7% decrease. The inventory showed a destocking trend. The futures delivery warehouse inventory also had some fluctuations [1][3] - **Demand**: The output of major finished papers increased slightly this week, but the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [3] Pulp Valuation Data - On August 8, 2025, the quantile level of Russian needle pulp basis was 0.736, and that of Silver Star basis was 0.912. The quantile level of import profit for coniferous pulp Silver Star was 0.546, and for broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 0.613 [3]
碳酸锂数据日报-20250811
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 05:58
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Report Core View - The focus in the market currently is on mine - end disturbances. If there is a short - term shutdown for rectification and then resumption after the mine certificates are compliant, considering the large recent downstream stocking and the supply from surrounding compliant mines, the impact on the balance sheet is limited. There may be a further push to raise the futures price from a market sentiment perspective, but the previous price increase has already factored in the shutdown impact, so the expected upside is limited. If the mine certificates are renewed smoothly, the supply side remains in a loose pattern. Given large downstream stocking, full previous pricing, small downstream production increase, the futures price may correct downward and return to the fundamental logic. Due to uncertainty and market rumors, investors are advised to participate cautiously [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,900 yuan with a daily increase of 800 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 69,800 yuan with a daily increase of 800 yuan [1] Lithium Futures - Lithium carbonate 2508 futures contract closed at 75,300 yuan, up 7.57%; lithium carbonate 2509 at 76,640 yuan, up 7.82%; lithium carbonate 2510 at 76,900 yuan, up 7.67%; lithium carbonate 2511 at 76,960 yuan, up 7.73%; lithium carbonate 2512 at 77,120 yuan, up 7.38% [1] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 777 yuan with a daily increase of 20 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) at 1,120 yuan with a daily increase of 30 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) at 1,800 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) at 5,675 yuan with a daily increase of 125 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) at 6,650 yuan with a daily increase of 150 yuan [1][2] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,850 yuan with a daily increase of 280 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,320 yuan with a daily increase of 60 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,995 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,585 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main futures contract is - 5,060 yuan, with a change of - 3,860 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 260 yuan, with a change of 20 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 320 yuan, with a change of 60 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 142,418 tons, with an increase of 692 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 50,999 tons, with a decrease of 959 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 48,159 tons, with an increase of 2,271 tons; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,260 tons, with a decrease of 620 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 18,829 tons, with an increase of 2,386 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 69,521 yuan, with a profit of 1,349 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 77,368 yuan, with a profit of - 8,388 yuan [3]
液化石油气(LPG)投资周报:原油增产对成本端压制,液化气价格低位运行-20250811
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 05:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is bearish [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil production increases, suppressing the cost side, leading to LPG prices running at a low level. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the international oil and gas supply is expected to be loose, suppressing the raw material cost price. Although the recent resumption of PDH has increased and the deep - processing of C4 has maintained stable operation, the terminal demand remains weak, and the overall fundamentals are loose. The basis is at a high level, and the valuation of the main contract is suppressed by the warrants, with the reverse spread reaching the bottom [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures declined, with a fluctuation range of 3,820 - 4,000 yuan/ton. The sharp drop in August CP led to a significant decline in import costs, which was negative for the futures and spot markets. International crude oil prices fell, causing a decline in the energy - chemical sector. The main LPG contract reached a low for the year. As the decline in spot prices was less than that of futures, the basis strengthened. The weekly average basis was 518.6 yuan/ton in East China, 515.2 yuan/ton in South China, and 651.2 yuan/ton in Shandong. The lowest deliverable location was South China [6] 3.2 Factors Affecting LPG 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG decreased slightly. The commercial volume of domestic LPG decreased, with the volume of domestic - use gas at 210,000 tons (3.62%), industrial gas at 202,200 tons (- 0.39%), and ether - after C4 at 74,000 tons (- 0.56%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 650,000 tons. A company in the Northwest resumed operation, a company in Shandong carried out maintenance, and a refinery in Central China increased internal supply [4] 3.2.2 Demand - The combustion demand remained weak, and downstream procurement demand was low. In the olefin deep - processing sector, the poor performance of the oil product market increased the inventory pressure of domestic deep - processing enterprises, weakening the demand for ether - after C4. In the alkane deep - processing sector, the concentrated restart of PDH increased the operating rate, but the off - season demand for intermediate - link propylene and terminal PP was average, and the fundamentals were loose, with other downstream profits in varying degrees of loss [4] 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was 175,800 tons (- 2.77%), and the port inventory was 321,620 tons (61%). This week, the inventory in various domestic regions remained generally stable with minor adjustments. The inventory in South China and Northeast China increased slightly due to import impacts and low demand, while the inventory in East China and Central China decreased through resource shipping and low - price sales. Although the number of arriving ships at the port decreased slightly this period, the unloading volume increased compared with last week, and the import resources were sufficient [4] 3.2.4 Basis and Positions - The weekly average basis was 555.4 yuan/ton in East China, 547.6 yuan/ton in South China, and 40 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warrants was 10,179 lots, and the lowest deliverable location was East China [4] 3.2.5 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 73.84%, 53%, and 50% respectively. The profits of PDH - to - propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 201 yuan/ton, - 200 yuan/ton, and - 390 yuan/ton respectively [4] 3.2.6 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 2.59%, and the PG continuous - first to continuous - second monthly spread was - 478 yuan/ton. The basis level was high, and the main futures contract was expected to reach the bottom [4] 3.2.7 Other Factors - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, the fundamentals of crude oil remain loose, the demand in the refined oil market is weak, and international oil and gas prices are fluctuating downward. Trump signed an executive order on August 6, imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods exported to the US, raising the overall tariff level to 50%. The 90 - day tariff relaxation period is approaching, and China - US tariff renegotiations are imminent [4] 3.3 Investment and Trading Strategies - The investment view is bearish. The trading strategy suggests temporarily waiting and watching for unilateral trading, paying attention to the positive spread of far - month contracts for arbitrage, and shorting PDH profits by going long on PG and shorting PL. Attention should be paid to China - US tariff policies, US sanctions on Iran, and changes in downstream demand [4] 3.4 Device Maintenance Plans - The report provides the maintenance plans of major refineries, LPG production devices, and PDH devices in China in 2025, including information such as refinery names, locations, maintenance devices, processing capacities, start and end times, etc. [12][13][14] 3.5 Market Data Charts - The report includes a large number of market data charts, covering the closing price monitoring of energy - chemical products, LPG futures prices, inter - month and cross - month spreads, domestic and international LPG - related price trends, inventory, production, consumption, and other data [3][10][18]
合成橡胶投资周报:国际原油接连走弱,BR价格盘整运行-20250811
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 05:51
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the synthetic rubber industry is "Bearish Oscillation" [3] Core Viewpoint of the Report - International crude oil prices have been declining, and the price of BR (Butadiene Rubber) has been consolidating. The supply of butadiene is affected by various factors such as device shutdowns and restarts, and the demand for rubber tires is relatively stable. The inventory of butadiene and BR has increased, and the profit of the rubber industry is under pressure. Geopolitical factors also have a negative impact on the market. Overall, the market for butadiene rubber is expected to be bearish with oscillations [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina sales companies decreased by 300 - 400 yuan/ton this period. As of August 7, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton [4] 2. Supply Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 102,500 tons (-0.87%), with a capacity utilization rate of 69.76%. Some devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Dongming Petrochemical were shut down, while some devices were restarted. The overall production decreased [3] - **Butadiene Rubber**: In July, some butadiene rubber devices were shut down, and some were restarted. It is expected that the production of butadiene rubber will continue to increase in August [3] 3. Demand Analysis - **Semi - steel Tires**: The replacement market price has no obvious adjustment this period. Some brands launched special - price patterns at the beginning of the month, and the actual market price is stable [3] - **All - steel Tires**: In August, the market price is mostly stable. Some brands planned to raise prices, but other enterprises did not follow up. The economic tire specifications are in short supply, and the inventory of mid - to high - end products is relatively sufficient [3] 4. Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 14,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 41.35%. The overall inventory of enterprises has little fluctuation, and there is no obvious inventory pressure recently [3] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly this period [3] 5. Basis, Spread/Price Ratio, and Profit Analysis - **Basis**: The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 115 yuan/ton, in East China is 35 yuan/ton, and in South China is 35 yuan/ton [3] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread is 4,035 yuan/ton (41.33%), the NR - BR spread is 890 yuan/ton (23.61%), and the BR - SC price ratio is 0.97% [3] - **Profit**: The production profit of butadiene oxidation dehydrogenation and carbon four extraction, as well as the production profit and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber, are all under pressure [3] 6. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - OPEC + plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, which leads to a loose supply of crude oil and a weak demand in the refined oil market. International oil and gas prices are oscillating downward. Trump signed an executive order to increase tariffs on Indian goods exported to the US, and the Sino - US tariff negotiation is approaching [3] 7. Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Viewpoint**: The maintenance of devices in Shandong and South China has a positive impact on the supply price of butadiene, but the short - term price change is small. The fundamentals of butadiene rubber remain the same, with traders reducing inventory and factories increasing inventory. The overall inventory level changes little, and the market trading volume is average [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is expected to be oscillating. For arbitrage, pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Risks to be concerned about include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical factors [3]
沥青数据日报-20250808
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 08:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for September sales to Asia to a premium of $3.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, up $1 from August, citing tight supply and strong demand [1] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels in the week ending August 1st, due to an increase in crude oil exports [2] - Trump's envoy's meeting with Putin made "significant progress", but the possibility of further sanctions on Moscow's oil revenue was not ruled out, and Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods [3] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and the UAE will increase production by about 2.5 million barrels per day, accounting for about 2.4% of global demand [3] - Russian President Putin and former U.S. President Trump have reached an intention to meet, and the summit is likely to be held next week [3] - In the asphalt market, prices in North China and Shandong decreased by 10 - 70 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions remained stable. The asphalt price in Shandong and Hebei may still have a slight downward space [4] Summary by Related Content Crude Oil Market - **Saudi Price Adjustment**: On August 6th, Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of its September - bound Arab Light crude oil to Asian customers to a $3.20 - per - barrel premium over Oman/Dubai crude, up $1 from August [1] - **U.S. Inventory Report**: As of August 1st, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels, with exports increasing by 620,000 barrels per day to 3.3 million barrels per day [2] - **Political Uncertainty**: Trump's envoy's meeting with Putin had "significant progress", but further sanctions on Moscow's oil revenue were not excluded, and Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods [3] - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ agreed to increase September oil production by 547,000 barrels per day, and the UAE will increase production by about 2.5 million barrels per day [3] - **Russia - U.S. Summit**: Putin and Trump are likely to hold a summit next week [3] Asphalt Market - **Price Changes**: North China and Shandong's asphalt prices decreased by 10 - 70 yuan/ton, while other regions' prices were stable. The price in Shandong and Hebei may still decline slightly [4] - **Demand and Inventory**: In the northwest, demand was boosted by key projects; in the south, demand was delayed by rain and funds, and social inventory needed to be digested [4]
玉米系数据日报-20250808
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 08:34
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Corn System Data Daily Report" and is issued by the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute on August 8, 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The southern port's grain inventory is being depleted slowly, downstream demand support is insufficient, and the warehouse receipt pressure is high. Although the supply - demand of old - crop corn is tightening, the time for the 09 contract is limited. Due to the harvest pressure of new - season corn and the reduction in planting costs, the 11 and 01 contracts of corn are expected to fluctuate at a low level [6] Group 4: Price and Market Data Spot Prices - Corn spot prices vary by region. For example, the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price is 2300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the Harbin price in Heilongjiang Province is 2195 yuan/ton, unchanged. Among them, the price in Hebei Province decreased by 10 yuan [5] - Corn starch spot prices are 2750 yuan/ton in Jilin Province and 2434 yuan/ton in Henan Province, both unchanged [5] - Wheat spot prices are 2435 yuan/ton in Anhui Province, down 1 yuan, and 2434 yuan/ton in Jiangsu Province, unchanged [5] Futures Prices - The closing price of the corn main contract is 2267 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the closing price of the corn starch main contract is 2618 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] International Data - The closing price of US corn is 402.00 cents per bushel, the imported US corn duty - paid price is 2231.87 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of imported US corn is 198.13 yuan/ton. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.18 [5] Spread Data - The spread between starch and corn (main continuous) is 351, and the spread between starch and corn (Jilin spot average price) is 490 [5] Inventory Data - North port corn inventory is 210.6 tons, Guangdong port domestic - trade corn inventory is 88.2 tons, and foreign - trade corn inventory is 0.7 tons. Northeast deep - processing corn inventory is 215.9 tons, and North China deep - processing corn inventory is 114.9 tons [5] Group 5: Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - The remaining grain is in short supply. Northeast grain has the demand for external transportation, and the volumes of grain collection and shipment at the north port have declined. The planting cost in the 25/26 season continues to decrease, and the estimated port collection price is about 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton. The sown area has no obvious change, the new - season corn is growing well, and the supply of imported grains is expected to decrease this year due to continuous policy restrictions [5] Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short term, supporting the feed demand. However, national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. The price difference between wheat and corn is at a low level, feed mills are increasing their wheat purchases, the wheat substitution ratio is increasing, and they are maintaining a cautious attitude towards corn purchases. The deep - processing downstream is in a loss, forcing the operating rate to decline to a low level, and the deep - processing demand is shrinking [5] Inventory - The north port inventory has been depleted to a low level, the southern port grain inventory is being depleted slowly, the feed enterprise inventory continues to decline, and the deep - processing corn inventory has declined this week [5]
生猪数据日报-20250808
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 07:53
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Today's overall spot market is stable. After the price drop in the previous few days, farmers expect to hold prices. According to Yongyi data, the monthly hog slaughter began to increase month - on - month in August, with the fastest month - on - month growth rate in October. The weight is gradually declining but still has room to fall. There was little change in piglet prices compared to last week. The continuous decline in spot prices in July led to some capacity reduction. The downward space for spot prices is limited, but it will still take time for prices to rise. Near - month contracts may follow the weak spot market. Continue to focus on the 9 - 11 reverse spread [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Hog Price Data - On August 7, 2025, the national average hog price was 13.2 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg. Prices in various regions also showed a downward trend, with price drops ranging from 0.09 to 0.21 yuan/kg. For example, the price in Henan was 13.86 yuan/kg, down 0.14 yuan/kg; in Hunan, it was 13.66 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan/kg; in Guangdong, it was 15.3 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg [2]. Futures Contract Data - On August 7, 2025, the price of LH2509 was 13,870 yuan, up 60 yuan; LH2511 was 14,100 yuan, up 90 yuan; LH2601 was 14,395 yuan, up 85 yuan. The spread between LH09 - 11 was - 230 yuan, down 30 yuan; the spread between LH11 - 01 was - 295 yuan, up 5 yuan [2]. Hog Slaughter and Weight Data - According to Yongyi data, the monthly hog slaughter began to increase month - on - month in August, with the fastest month - on - month growth rate in October. This week, the average weight of hog slaughter was 127.98 kg, down 0.50 kg from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39%, and up 2.52 kg from the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 2.01% [2]. Piglet Price Data - Piglet prices have not changed much compared to last week [2].
油脂数据日报-20250808
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 07:52
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report suggests going long on the palm oil 09 contract and the soybean oil 09 contract [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Data Spot Price - On August 7, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin was 9120 yuan, up 50 yuan from the previous day; in Zhangjiagang it was 9050 yuan, up 50 yuan; in Huangpu it was 9000 yuan, up 50 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8550 yuan, up 50 yuan; in Zhangjiagang it was 8630 yuan, up 50 yuan; in Huangpu it was 8670 yuan, up 50 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang was 9630 yuan, down 70 yuan; in Wuhan it was 9680 yuan, down 70 yuan; in Chengdu it was 9890 yuan, down 70 yuan [1] Futures Data - On August 7, 2025, the price difference between the soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 544, up 20 from the previous day; the price difference between the rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1090, down 66 [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts were 570, unchanged; the soybean oil warehouse receipts were 15370, an increase of 3830; the rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3487, unchanged [1] Import Data of India - In July, India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons; soybean oil imports soared by 38% month - on - month to 495,000 tons; sunflower oil imports decreased by 7% month - on - month to 201,000 tons; total edible oil imports increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 1.53 million tons [2] Malaysian Data - Bloomberg's July MPOB forecast: production increased by 8.3% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, imports were 50,000 tons, exports increased by 3.2% to 1.3 million tons, local consumption was 250,000 - 450,000 tons, and inventory increased by 10% to 2.23 million tons [2] - From July 1 - 31, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit increased by 7.19% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02% month - on - month, and production increased by 7.07% month - on - month [2] - According to ITS, from July 1 - 31, exports decreased by 6.7% compared to the previous month; according to AmSpec, exports decreased by 9.6% compared to the previous month [2] Other Data - Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August to $910.91 per metric ton, up from $877.89 in July, and the export tax will increase from $52 per ton in July to $74 per ton [2] - From July 27 to August 2, Brazil's soybean exports were 2.5504 million tons, up from 2.2902 million tons the previous week [2] - In the next two weeks, the overall precipitation in the US soybean - growing areas is good, which is beneficial to the soybean yield per unit [2] - As of the week ending July 27, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and the flowering rate was 76% [2]
橡胶产业数据日报-20250808
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 07:48
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rubber market shows a volatile performance. Supply - side: In Thailand, the raw material glue price is 54 Thai baht per kilogram, and the cup - lump price is 48.3 Thai baht per kilogram; in Yunnan, the price of glue for producing whole - milk rubber is 14,000 yuan per ton, and for concentrated latex is 14,400 yuan per ton; in Hainan, the price of glue for producing whole - milk rubber is 13,300 yuan per ton, and for concentrated latex is 14,000 yuan per ton. Mid - stream inventory: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory is 1.289 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,800 tons (a decline of 0.4%); the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber is 804,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber is 485,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. Downstream demand: As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.93 percentage points. Currently, the commodity market sentiment is changeable, and the rubber market is disturbed by external and relevant news in the short term, lacking a clear logic. It may continue to maintain a volatile performance in the short term. The operation suggestion is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Disk - In the domestic market, the RU main contract is at 15,525 (up 30 from the previous value), the NR main contract is at 12,350 (up 30), and the BR main contract is at 11,535 (up 30). In the overseas market, Tocom RSS3 is at 317.1 yen per kilogram (down 2.8), and Sicom TF is at 168.4 cents per kilogram (unchanged) [3] Futures Spreads - In the inter - period spreads, RU2601 - RU2509 is at 975 (up 15), RU2605 - RU2601 is at 120 (down 10), NR main - secondary main is at - 50 (up 15), and BR main - secondary main is at 25 (up 20). In the inter - variety spreads, RU - NR is at 3,175 (unchanged), RU - BR is at 3,990 (unchanged), and NR - BR is at 815 (unchanged). In the inter - market spreads, RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) is at 11 (up 27), and NR - Sicom TF ($) is at 37 (up 7) [3] Raw Material Prices - In Thailand (in Thai baht per kilogram), the price of smoked sheet rubber is 61.65 (up 1.25), the price of raw rubber sheet is 58.55 (down 0.15), the price of glue is 54.00 (unchanged), and the price of cup - lump is 48.30 (up 0.15). In Hainan and Yunnan (in yuan per ton), the price of Hainan glue for concentrated latex is 14,000 (up 200), the price of Hainan glue for whole - milk rubber is 13,100 (unchanged), the price of Yunnan glue for concentrated latex is 14,300 (down 100), and the price of Yunnan rubber block for whole - milk rubber is 14,000 (unchanged) [3] Factory Costs and Profits - The delivery profit of whole - milk rubber: in Hainan it is 454 (up 34), in Yunnan it is - 626 (up 34). The production profit of concentrated latex is 728 (up 9). The profit of Hainan is 700 (down 130). The gross profit of Thai smoked sheet rubber is 2,644 (up 101), the gross profit of Thai 20 - number rubber is - 184 (up 3), and the gross profit of domestic 9710 is 250 (up 50) [3] Domestic Spot - For light - colored rubber, the price of old whole - milk rubber is 14,550 (up 50), the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,650 (unchanged), the price of Thai mixed rubber is 14,350 (up 30), and the price of Malaysian mixed rubber is 14,300 (up 30). For dark - colored rubber, the price of Thai standard rubber is 12,664 (up 25), the price of domestic standard - two rubber is 13,700 (up 50), and the price of domestic 9710 is 14,250 (up 50). For latex, the price of Shanghai: Huangchunfa bulk is 11,600 (unchanged), and the price of Shanghai: Hainan bulk is 11,100 (unchanged). For synthetic rubber, the price of cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,550 (down 50), the price of styrene - butadiene SBR1502 is 12,050 (up 50), and the price of Japanese SBR1712 is 10,950 (up 100) [3] Overseas Spot - For mixed rubber, the CIF price of Thai mixed rubber is 1,780 (up 5), and the CIF price of Malaysian mixed rubber is 1,770 (up 5). For standard rubber, the CIF price of Thai standard rubber is 1,780 (up 5), the CIF price of Malaysian standard rubber is 1,780 (up 5), and the CIF price of Indian standard rubber is 1,770 (up 5) [3] Spot - Futures Spreads - For RU spreads, RU - Thai mixed rubber is - 15, RU - old whole - milk rubber is 200 (down 35), and RU - Vietnamese 3L is + 15. For NR spreads, the delivery profit of NR - Thai standard rubber is - 573 (up 3), the delivery profit of NR - Indian standard rubber is - 70 (up 2), and the delivery profit of NR - Malaysian standard rubber is - 501 (up 3) [3] Spot Spreads - For variety spreads, the price difference between Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber ($) is 10 (unchanged), the price difference between Vietnamese 3L and Thai mixed rubber is 300 (down 30), the price difference between domestic standard - two rubber and Thai mixed rubber is - 650 (up 20), the price difference between old whole - milk rubber and Vietnamese 3L is - 100 (up 50), and the price difference between domestic 9710 and Thai mixed rubber is - 100 (up 20) [3] Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index is 98.2230 (unchanged), the US dollar/Chinese yuan is at 7.1345 (down 0.006), the US dollar/Japanese yen is at 147.3565 (unchanged), the US dollar/Thai baht is at 32.3650 (unchanged). For interest rates, SHIBOR - overnight is 1.315 (down 0.001), and SHIBOR - seven - day is 1.434 (down 0.008) [3]