Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various futures varieties on September 19, 2025, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, soybean meal, live pigs, palm oil, Shanghai copper, iron ore, asphalt, log, cotton, steel, alumina, and Shanghai aluminum, and predicts their future trends [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 19, the three major A-share indexes fluctuated and sorted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.30% to 3,820.09 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.04% to 13,070.86 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.16% to 3,091.00 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.3238 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 811.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4,501.92, a month-on-month increase of 3.81 [1] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index fluctuated strongly on September 19, closing at 1,754.1, a month-on-month increase of 15.9. There is still an expectation of a third round of price cuts in the coking industry, but due to low profits, some coking plants have proposed a first-round price increase, intensifying the game. The overall coke inventory has increased, and the purchasing willingness of traders is average. Due to the high market expectation of coking coal overproduction inspection and "anti-involution," there is a certain expectation of an increase in coke costs, and the price mainly follows the rise of coking coal [1] - Coking coal: The price is relatively strong due to the high market expectation of overproduction inspection and "anti-involution." The output of coking coal mines has increased slightly, the spot auction transactions have weakened, the transaction price has followed the decline of the disk, and the terminal inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal has increased month-on-month, the production-end inventory has decreased slightly, the short-term shutdown of coking coal has basically recovered, the impact duration is short, and the impact on inventory is small [1][2] Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the large short-term decline and the influence of technical factors, the US sugar stopped falling and rebounded slightly last Friday. Affected by the large short-term decline and the rebound of the US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated and sorted slightly higher in the night session last Friday. A commodity research report shows that the estimated beet output of the EU 27 and the UK in the 2025/26 season remains at 113.6 million tons. Traders and government officials said that India's sugar exports are expected to be less than 800,000 tons this year, failing to meet the quota of 1 million tons, as the increase in Brazilian supply has pulled down global sugar prices and affected India's sugar exports [2] Rubber - Due to the large short-term decline and the influence of technical factors, Shanghai rubber fluctuated and sorted slightly higher last Friday. As of September 19, the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 196,824 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4,876 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 154,920 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3,180 tons. The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 49,695 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 44,553 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,411 tons [2] Soybean Meal - International market: On September 19, CBOT soybean futures were weak. The US soybean has entered the initial stage of harvesting. Given the dry weather in the US soybean producing areas and the decline in crop quality, the market expects the US Department of Agriculture to lower the US soybean yield in next month's report. Brazil's National Commodity Supply Company released its first forecast for the 2025/26 crop year, expecting soybean production to increase by 3.6% compared with the previous year [3] - Domestic market: On September 19, the main contract of soybean meal M2601 closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.7%. At present, the number of imported soybeans in China is large, the soybean supply is sufficient, the oil mills maintain a high operating level, the pressing volume remains high, and the soybean meal inventory continues to rise. As of last week, the soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.36 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.15 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 20,000 tons. In the short term, the inventory pressure of soybeans and soybean meal is still large. Due to the loose supply and the increasing supply pressure after the start of the US soybean harvest, the price of soybean meal fluctuates weakly. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and the changes in soybean arrival volume [3][4] Live Pigs - On September 19, the main contract of live pigs LH2511 closed at 12,825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04%. The enthusiasm of farmers to sell pigs is high, the supply of standard pigs in September has increased significantly, and the production capacity is in the stage of concentrated release. The slaughter rhythm of large-scale pig farms has accelerated, and the willingness of small and medium-sized pig farms to sell pigs has also increased significantly. The overall market supply is sufficient. Although the consumer demand has shown a slow recovery recently, the start-up rate of slaughterhouses has been briefly boosted by the start of the school season and the pre-holiday stocking, but the high temperature in the south has suppressed the consumption of fresh meat, and the sales of white-striped pigs are not smooth. The demand side is still difficult to strongly support the market in the short term. In the short term, the futures price of live pigs may maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the loose supply and limited demand growth. In the future, attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of live pigs and the actual effect of production capacity regulation policies [4] Palm Oil - On Friday night, the palm oil futures continued to maintain a slight consolidation state, and the current price range has reached the lower edge of the overall high range. At the close, the K-line of the main contract P2601 closed with a small doji with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 9,336, the lowest price was 9,286, and the closing price was 9,306, a decrease of 0.11% from the Friday daytime close. High-frequency data: According to the data of the shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of palm oil in Malaysia from September 1 to 20 was 1,010,032 tons, an increase of 8.7% compared with the export volume of 929,051 tons in the same period last month [5] Shanghai Copper - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the policy trend is attracting attention, and the US dollar index has fluctuated sharply. The social inventory of Shanghai copper has accumulated for three consecutive weeks. The tight supply of raw materials is difficult to significantly improve in the short term, which will support copper prices to a certain extent. However, attention should be paid to the production situation of smelters. On the demand side, the pre-holiday stocking demand may boost copper prices to a certain extent, but the high price still suppresses demand, and the upward space of copper prices may be limited [5] Iron Ore - On September 19, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and closed up, with an increase of 0.81%, and the closing price was 807.5 yuan. Last week, the global iron ore shipping volume rebounded month-on-month, the arrival volume continued to decline, the port inventory decreased, the steel mills have a demand for replenishment before the festival, and the molten iron output continued to increase slightly at a high level. In the short term, the iron ore price is in a volatile trend [5] Asphalt - On September 19, the main contract of asphalt 2511 fluctuated and closed down, with a decrease of 0.44%, and the closing price was 3,421 yuan. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of asphalt decreased slightly, the inventory continued to decline, and the shipment volume increased. The good weather in the north supports the rush-demand, but the increased rainfall in some southern regions still hinders the demand. In the short term, the asphalt price will mainly fluctuate [6] Log - On Friday, the opening price was 800, the lowest price was 800, the highest price was 808, the closing price was 805, and the daily position was reduced by 285 lots. The futures price rebounded above the 10-day moving average of 803. Pay attention to the support at the 800 mark and the pressure at 813. On September 19, the spot market price of 3.9-meter medium-A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot market price of 4-meter medium-A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. Customs data on the 18th showed that the log import volume in August was 2.11 million cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 24%. There is no major contradiction in the supply and demand relationship. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and the spot transactions are weak. Pay attention to the support of the spot price in the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and macro expectations and market sentiment on the price [6] Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,735 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 206 lots compared with the previous trading day. The estimated output of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/2026 season is 6.91 million tons, a record high [6] Steel - Judging from the performance in the two weeks after the military parade, the steel demand trend is in line with the seasonality. This week, the molten iron output remains at a high level, but as the weather gradually cools down, the steel demand may recover to a certain extent next week, and the steel will enter the inventory inflection point. Recently, there has been a lot of market news, and the valuation of the black sector is low due to the previous decline. With the arrival of the peak season, the steel demand will continue to improve. Considering the pre-National Day replenishment, the black sector is supported. If the downstream demand recovers beyond expectations from late September to October, the steel price may rise further. In the future, attention should be paid to the peak season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7] Alumina - Fundamental raw materials: The rainy season in Guinea continues to affect shipments, and the subsequent domestic bauxite imports are expected to decrease, and the quotation is relatively firm. Supply: Some previously overhauled alumina production capacities have gradually resumed production, and the operating rate has rebounded slightly. Although the supply of bauxite is expected to be tight, the port inventory of raw materials is still at a medium to high level, so the overall supply is still sufficient, and there is no large-scale production reduction. The supply volume has maintained a slight increase. Demand: The capacity replacement project in the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has promoted a slight increase in the demand for alumina, but due to the upper limit of the aluminum industry, the demand boost is less than the supply growth. Overall, the current fundamentals of alumina are still in a state of oversupply, and the inventory has accumulated slightly [7] Shanghai Aluminum - Supply: The supply of raw material alumina is relatively sufficient, and the quotation has declined. Although the spot price of electrolytic aluminum has also回调 after the interest rate cut, the smelting profit can still be maintained at a good level due to the reduction of raw material costs, and the production enthusiasm is high. In addition, the completion of some capacity replacement projects in the electrolytic aluminum industry has led to a slight increase in the industry's production capacity, and the overall production capacity is gradually approaching the upper limit of the industry. Demand: The realization of the interest rate cut expectation has led to a slight回调 in the aluminum price. Coupled with the traditional consumption peak season and the pre-holiday stocking demand, the purchasing willingness of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has increased. Overall, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of stable supply and increased demand [8]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On September 18, most of the analyzed futures varieties showed downward trends or were in a state of shock adjustment. The market was affected by various factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic events like the Fed's interest rate cut [1][2][3]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 18, A - share three major indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.15% to 3831.66 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.06% to 13075.66 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.64% to 3095.85 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 31352 billion yuan, a significant increase of 7584 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index weakened, closing at 4498.11, a decrease of 52.91 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 18, the coke weighted index fluctuated and sorted, closing at 1722.8, a decrease of 17.7. The coking coal weighted index adjusted downward, closing at 1212.7 yuan, a decrease of 23.5. Coke producers' profits are okay, and after the end of production - limiting constraints, the start - up rate has rebounded. Steel mills' blast furnaces maintain the momentum of operation, and the real demand is supported. For coking coal, after the end of policy disturbances, domestic coal supply has recovered, and imports from Mongolia have returned to normal. Downstream enterprises' start - up rates have rebounded from low levels [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract declined on September 18. In the second half of August, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 18.21% year - on - year to 387 million tons. India plans to resume sugar exports in the new sugar - crushing season starting from October 2025, which may put downward pressure on global sugar prices [2]. Rubber - Due to the decrease in rainfall in the Thai production area and the adjustment of spot quotes, as well as the Fed's interest rate cut and concerns about the US economic outlook, the Shanghai rubber futures declined significantly on September 18. From January to July 2025, US tire imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year, and China's synthetic rubber production in August 2025 increased by 7.4% year - on - year [3]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 18, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower, affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and the pressure of US soybean harvest. The market expects the US Department of Agriculture to lower the US soybean yield per unit in the next report. Domestically, on September 18, the soybean meal M2601 contract closed at 2993 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.3%. The supply of domestic soybean meal is abundant, and the price is in a downward adjustment trend [3][4]. Live Pigs - On September 18, the LH2511 contract closed at 12830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31%. Recently, the enthusiasm of the breeding end for slaughter has increased, and the supply of standard pigs has further increased. The consumption demand has slowly recovered, but the short - term demand side is difficult to form a strong support [4]. Palm Oil - On September 18, the palm oil futures price continued to decline within the range, and the closing price of the main contract P2601 was 9304, a decrease of 1.27%. In August, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. From January to August, imports were 1.59 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.8% [5]. Shanghai Copper - After the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September, the market sentiment weakened, and the Shanghai copper price fell significantly. The supply - demand pattern is weak on both sides, but the supply of smelters may be more affected, and the downstream demand has marginally increased. The pre - National Day inventory replenishment may support the price [5]. Cotton - On the night of September 18, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13715 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory decreased by 177 lots compared with the previous trading day. The US dollar index weakened, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased [5]. Iron Ore - On September 18, the iron ore 2601 contract closed down 0.12% at 800 yuan. The global shipment volume of iron ore has rebounded, and the arrival volume has continued to decline. Steel mills still have the demand for replenishment, but due to the emission reduction requirements in Tangshan, the short - term price is in a shock trend [6]. Asphalt - On September 18, the asphalt 2511 contract closed down 0.35% at 3427 yuan. The asphalt supply continues to be low, the inventory continues to decline, and the demand is still weak. The short - term price is in a shock operation [6]. Logs - On September 18, the 2511 log contract opened at 809, closed at 801.5, and increased its position by 321 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. In August, log imports decreased by 24% year - on - year. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality [6]. Steel - On September 18, rb2601 was reported at 3147 yuan/ton, and hc2601 was reported at 3354 yuan/ton. The demand for steel in September has recovered slowly, and the transaction of high - priced resources is not good. After the speculation of coking coal and coke futures, they have entered the adjustment stage, and the price of raw fuels is still high. In the short term, steel prices may fluctuate weakly [7]. Alumina - On September 18, ao2601 was reported at 2931 yuan/ton. The alumina market is still in a state of oversupply. The domestic production capacity is high, imports are increasing, and the inventory is also high. Electrolytic aluminum plants' procurement is negative. In the short term, the spot price may continue to decline [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 18, al2511 was reported at 20785 yuan/ton. After the Fed's interest rate cut, market uncertainty increased, and the risk - aversion sentiment rose. The supply of aluminum ingots is normal, and the social inventory is accumulating. The demand has slightly improved, and the price continues to decline [8].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 17, 2025, the A-share market showed overall positive trends, with increases in major indices and trading volume. Futures markets for various commodities had different performances influenced by factors such as supply and demand, production changes, and macro - economic expectations [1]. - The global sugar market is expected to shift from a supply shortage in 2024/25 to a slight surplus in 2025/26, with increased production and consumption [5]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 17, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3876.34, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16% to 13215.46, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.95% to 3147.35. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2376.7 billion yuan, a slight increase of 35.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4551.02, up 27.69 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 17, the coke weighted index closed at 1746.9, up 7.0; the coking coal weighted index closed at 1239.8 yuan, up 1.8. A coal mine in Linfen Hongtong stopped production on September 16 for about 20 days, affecting about 140,000 tons of raw coal output. Three coking coal mines in Ordos have suspended shipments, one of which has stopped production for rectification. The spot price of coking coal has stopped falling and rebounded, and the possibility of a third price cut in the short term is low [3][4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The October sugar delivery volume on the Intercontinental Exchange was 260,750 tons. Brazilian spot sugar prices declined in the first half of September. Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar prices and the reduction of imported processed sugar quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell on September 17. The global sugar market is expected to shift from a shortage of - 4.4 million tons in 2024/25 to a surplus of + 0.7 million tons in 2025/26, with production increasing from 189.4 million tons to 196.8 million tons and consumption increasing by 2.4 million tons [5]. Rubber - Nissan's plan to cut production and close design studios affected the market. The Shanghai Rubber futures fell on September 17. As of September 14, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 586,600 tons, a decrease of 0.56 million tons or 0.95% from the previous period. The保税 area inventory decreased by 8.32% to 66,200 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.07% to 520,400 tons [6][7]. Soybean Meal - On September 17, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower. The US soybean crop rating decreased to 63%. Brazil's 2025 soybean production forecast remained at 170.3 million tons. The domestic soybean meal M2601 contract closed at 3002 yuan/ton, down 1.28%. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and soybean meal inventory is rising [8]. Live Hogs - On September 17, the LH2511 contract closed at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 1.22%. In September, the supply of suitable - weight pigs increased, and the consumption demand recovered slowly, resulting in a weak and volatile futures price [9]. Palm Oil - On September 17, the palm oil futures failed to continue rising and closed lower. From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 8.05%, and exports decreased by 0.1% [9]. Shanghai Copper - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, but there is a risk of "buy on rumor, sell on news". Overseas copper mines have occasional disruptions, and the domestic copper concentrate processing fee is low. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has widened, and the social inventory accumulation is limited [10]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,870 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 144 lots in inventory. The price of Xinjiang machine - picked cottonseed was 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg [10]. Iron Ore - On September 17, the iron ore 2601 contract closed down 0.12% at 804.5 yuan. The global iron ore shipment volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the iron water production returned to a high level. However, steel mills in Tangshan were required to reduce emissions, so the iron ore price was volatile [10][11]. Asphalt - On September 17, the asphalt 2511 contract closed up 0.58% at 3445 yuan. The asphalt supply remained low, the inventory decreased slightly, the shipment volume declined, and the demand was weak, so the price was volatile [11]. Logs - On September 17, the log futures opened at 806.5, closed at 809, and decreased by 1268 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship was stable, and the market was in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [11]. Steel - On September 17, the rb2601 contract closed at 3168 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3390 yuan/ton. The steel industry faced high supply and low demand, resulting in high inventory, low prices, and reduced profits [12]. Alumina - On September 17, the ao2601 contract closed at 2937 yuan/ton. The alumina price fell back after rising. The supply was loose, and downstream enterprises were mainly waiting and seeing [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 17, the al2511 contract closed at 20,940 yuan/ton. The market was waiting for the Fed's decision. The domestic "anti - involution" policy provided some support. The supply was normal, the social inventory increased, and the demand was cautious [13].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 16, 2025, the A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.45%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.68%. The trading volume in the two markets reached 2341.4 billion yuan, an increase of 64 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Various futures varieties had different trends on September 16, including the performance of coke, coking coal, sugar, rubber, soybean meal, etc., and their future trends are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies [3][4][5]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 16, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87, up 0.04%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13063.97, up 0.45%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3087.04, up 0.68%. The trading volume in the two markets reached 2341.4 billion yuan, an increase of 64 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index fluctuated and sorted on September 16, closing at 4523.34, down 9.72 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 16, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1748.0, up 70.6 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index remained strong, closing at 1248.5 yuan, up 68.0 from the previous day [3][4]. - For coke, the second - round price cut has been implemented, but due to the concession of raw coal, the profitability of coking plants is acceptable, and the supply of coke has increased. For coking coal, most coal mines in Shanxi that stopped or reduced production due to the parade have resumed production, and the supply from the origin has increased [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the rise of US sugar and the downward adjustment of spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated widely on September 16, rising first and then falling, and closing slightly higher. At night, it fluctuated slightly lower [5]. - Brazil is expected to increase its sugarcane planting area in 2025, but the sugarcane output is expected to decrease slightly compared with the previous year [5]. Rubber - Thailand's continuous rainfall has caused supply concerns, and Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher on September 16. At night, it fluctuated and sorted [6]. - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 16, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher. The US soybean crop rating decreased compared with the previous week, and the harvest progress was faster than the five - year average [6]. - Domestically, on September 16, the soybean meal M2601 main contract closed at 3041 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the price maintains a volatile and sorted trend [6][8]. Live Pigs - On September 16, the LH2511 main contract closed at 13160 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has increased, and the short - term demand is difficult to form a strong support. The futures price of live pigs may maintain a low - level volatile trend [8]. Palm Oil - On September 16, palm oil futures continued to rebound slightly within the range, and the main contract P2601 closed with a small阳线 with an upper shadow line, up 0.64% from the previous day [9]. - Malaysian research institution Kenanga Research said that the prices of edible oils, including palm oil, are expected to be firm in 2025 and 2026 [9]. Copper - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The domestic copper concentrate supply and demand are expected to be tight, which will potentially support the price. However, the high copper price restricts the downstream demand [10]. Cotton - On the night of September 16, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13940 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 130 lots compared with the previous day. Some early - maturing varieties in Xinjiang have started to be picked [10]. Logs - On September 16, the 2511 contract of logs opened at 798.5, with the lowest at 794.5, the highest at 813, and closed at 806.5, with a decrease of 796 lots in positions. Pay attention to the support at 800 and the pressure at 813 [10]. Iron Ore - On September 16, the iron ore 2601 main contract fluctuated and closed up, up 0.82%, closing at 803.5 yuan. The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [11]. Asphalt - On September 16, the asphalt 2511 main contract fluctuated and closed up, up 0.38%, closing at 3411 yuan. The current demand is not strong in the peak season, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [12]. Steel - On September 16, rb2601 closed at 3166 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3402 yuan/ton. The market is mainly based on supply - demand structure, but there may be policy - driven fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the callback risk [12]. Alumina - On September 16, ao2601 closed at 2979 yuan/ton. The supply - demand contradiction cannot be resolved, and the continuous expansion of supply suppresses the price. The fundamentals are weak [13]. Aluminum - On September 16, al2510 closed at 20975 yuan/ton. The demand has improved, but the inventory is still in a state of accumulation, and whether the de - stocking inflection point can appear in mid - September needs further observation [13].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On September 15th, the three major A-share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26% to close at 3860.50 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.63% to 13005.77 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.52% to 3066.18 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 2277.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 243.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4533.06, up 11.06 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 15th, the coke weighted index trended stronger in a fluctuating manner, closing at 1700.9, up 75.5. The coking coal weighted index was strong, closing at 1196.6 yuan, up 53.1. Coke is facing a second - round price cut. The current iron - water output is 2405500 tons, an increase of 117100 tons. The coke inventory is moderately high, and the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 35 yuan/ton. For coking coal, the price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal is 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market. The market has fully priced in three Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Fed will announce interest rate decisions on September 17th, October 29th, and December 10th. The supply at the mine end has recovered, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has declined for 4 consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for 3 consecutive months. The supply has decreased, the inventory has decreased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory is at a moderate level [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Supported by factors such as the rebound of US sugar on Friday and the stable spot price, the short - covering of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract led to an upward trend on Monday. The USDA's September supply - demand report shows that the estimated total sugar production in the US for the 2025/26 crushing season is 9.47 million short tons, and the sugar inventory/consumption ratio is estimated to be 16.2% [2]. Rubber - Boosted by factors such as the increase in Southeast Asian spot prices and the stabilization of crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber trended higher on Monday. The night - session fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. In July 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production was 35884 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5% and a month - on - month increase of 36.7%. As of the end of July 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber inventory increased by 15.5% to 171061 tons [3]. Palm Oil - On September 15th, the palm oil futures fluctuated upward within the range. The main contract P2601 closed with a doji - like candlestick. The highest price was 9442, the lowest was 9318, and the closing price was 9422, up 1.36% from the previous day. From September 1 - 15th, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 742648 tons, a 2.6% increase from the same period last month. As of September 12th, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 641500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22200 tons, or 3.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 128000 tons, or 24.92% [3]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 15th, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The seasonal harvest pressure is emerging. As of the week ending September 14th, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 63%, and the harvest rate is 5%, in line with market expectations. As of September 11th, the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season has reached 0.12% of the expected total area, and drought in the central - western region may disrupt the sowing work. Domestically, on September 15th, the main contract of soybean meal M2601 closed at 3042 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2%. Currently, the import volume of soybeans is large, the supply is sufficient, the factory's operating rate is high, the crushing volume remains at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory continues to rise. However, due to the lack of a trade agreement between China and the US, there is still an expectation of tightened long - term soybean imports. Overall, the market is mixed with long and short factors, and the soybean meal price will maintain a volatile trend [4]. Live Pigs - On September 15th, the main contract LH2511 closed at 13745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4%. In September, the production capacity is in the concentrated realization stage, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has increased, the group pig enterprises have a high slaughter plan, and the daily average slaughter has increased month - on - month. Although it is approaching the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption peak season, the recovery of terminal consumption is slow, and it is difficult to form strong support in the short term. The live - pig futures price may maintain a low - level volatile trend [5]. Shanghai Copper - The market believes that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 100%, and the market bets on three rate cuts this year, which keeps the US Treasury yield at a low level and supports the Shanghai copper price. Fundamentally, the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has stopped production due to wet - material blockage, and the resumption time is uncertain, which intensifies the global shortage of copper concentrates and is beneficial to copper prices. However, in the week ending September 12th, the social inventory of Shanghai copper increased by 14.91% to 94054 tons, reaching a two - and - a - half - month high, weakening the support of low inventory on prices. Currently, at a high copper price, downstream buyers are mainly on the sidelines, the rigid demand procurement is limited, the release of peak - season demand is weak, and the willingness to chase the price is limited. The upward pressure on copper prices persists. Technically, Shanghai copper is expected to run strongly in the short term but may face certain pressure at high levels [5]. Iron Ore - On September 15th, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and closed lower, with a decline of 0.31%, closing at 796 yuan. Last week, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased week - on - week, and the arrival volume also decreased slightly. The supply has tightened, the iron - water output has returned to a high level, and steel mills still have the demand for replenishing stocks. The supply has decreased while the demand has increased, and the short - term iron ore price is in a volatile trend [6]. Asphalt - On September 15th, the main contract of asphalt 2511 fluctuated and closed lower, with a decline of 0.29%, closing at 3393 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased week - on - week, the asphalt manufacturers' shipment volume decreased, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The inventory level remained flat week - on - week. Due to weather factors, the current demand shows the characteristic of a peak season without a peak, and the fundamental driving force is still limited. The short - term asphalt price will mainly operate in a volatile manner [6]. Cotton - On Monday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13910 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 118 lots compared with the previous trading day. The purchase price of hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang is firm, which boosts market sentiment to a certain extent [6]. Logs - On September 15th, the log futures opened at 798.5, with a minimum of 794.5, a maximum of 806.5, and closed at 804.5, with an increase of 709 lots in positions. The futures price rebounded and touched the 60 - day moving average of 334. Pay attention to the support at the 800 mark and the pressure at 810. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu is 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Pay attention to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on prices [6][7]. Steel - On September 15th, rb2601 closed at 3136 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3370 yuan/ton. From January to August, the industrial added value continued to grow rapidly, and the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries showed good momentum. However, the investment growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing have slowed down, and the real estate market is still in a downward cycle, resulting in a slow improvement in steel demand during the "Golden September". The National Bureau of Statistics said that in the next stage, it will strengthen the governance of over - capacity in key industries, advocate against disorderly competition among enterprises, and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. On Monday, the "double - coke" futures rose sharply, pushing up the cost and driving up the steel price. Considering the general balance of supply and demand in the steel market, the continuous rise of steel prices is questionable, and it may run slightly stronger in a volatile manner in the short term [8]. Alumina - On September 15th, ao2601 closed at 2935 yuan/ton. Although there is no new production capacity coming on - stream in September, due to the stable output of new production capacity added in the first half of the year and the continuous resumption of production of some enterprises' overhauled production lines, the spot supply will be further relaxed, increasing the downward pressure on market prices. In terms of demand, the operation of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants is relatively stable, the long - term order demand for alumina is relatively stable, but the spot bulk order transactions may weaken. With the increase in the delivery - warehouse capacity and the market - circulating spot, the downstream aluminum plants' willingness to bargain for lower prices when purchasing has increased [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 15th, al2510 closed at 21020 yuan/ton. The improvement of the global economic outlook and the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts are important macro - factors supporting the rise of aluminum prices. The US dollar index has weakened periodically, which is beneficial to commodities priced in US dollars. The macro - environment continues to send positive signals, enhancing the market's optimistic sentiment towards the aluminum demand outlook. Domestic and foreign investors and traders have increased their purchases, driving up the aluminum price. As the National Day holiday approaches, the recovery of demand and the increase in the proportion of direct delivery of ingots to terminals will trigger a turning point in inventory. The domestic aluminum market is expected to start a destocking cycle, but whether this turning point is stable still needs further verification from subsequent data [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On September 11, the A-share market showed strong performance, with significant increases in major indices and a large trading volume. However, different futures varieties had diverse trends affected by various factors such as supply - demand relations, international policies, and macro - economic conditions [1] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 11, the three major A - share indices soared. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.65% to 3875.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.36% to 12979.89 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 5.15% to 3053.75 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 24377 billion yuan, a significant increase of 4596 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index was strong, closing at 4548.03, a rise of 102.67 [1] Coke and Coking Coal - On September 11, the coke weighted index had a weak rebound, closing at 1639.8, a rise of 29.7. The coking coal weighted index had a wide - range shock, closing at 1147.7 yuan, a rise of 28.8. The first - round price cut of coke was fully implemented, with a range of 50/55 yuan/ton, and the iron - water output declined significantly. The spot price of coking coal fluctuated, with more auction failures. Mine safety supervision was strict, and the resumption of production of sample mines was slow, but the upstream mine inventory began to decline. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of coking coal was 5282.23 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.36%, and the export of coke was 350.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28% [1][2][3] Zhengzhou Sugar - Supported by factors such as the improvement of Brazilian ethanol prices and the decline of German sugar production, the US sugar closed slightly higher on Wednesday. Affected by the stabilization and rebound of US sugar and the increase of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose on Thursday. A well - known industry institution suggested that India should allow 2 million tons of sugar exports in the 2025/26 market year due to supply surplus [3] Rubber - Mexico planned to impose a maximum 50% tariff on automobiles, auto parts, steel, and textiles from China and other countries without a trade agreement with Mexico. Affected by this, the Shanghai rubber futures declined on Thursday. In August, Vietnam's rubber export volume increased by 5.1% month - on - month, and Cote d'Ivoire's export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [4] Soybean Meal - On September 11, the CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. The upcoming soybean harvest in the US increased the seasonal supply pressure. As of the week ending September 4, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the 2025/26 season was 541100 tons. Brazil's soybean sowing season started earlier, and Argentina's new - season soybean planting area was expected to decrease by 4.3% year - on - year to 17.6 million hectares. In the domestic market, on September 11, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated. The M2601 main contract closed at 2088 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.72%. The large import of soybeans, sufficient supply, high - level operation of factories, and high - volume crushing led to an increase in soybean meal inventory, putting pressure on prices. The uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations made the market have expectations of a decline in long - term supply, resulting in a fluctuating price [4][5] Live Pigs - On September 11, the live pig futures price fluctuated. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13320 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.04%. In September, the production capacity was in the concentrated realization stage, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs increased, and the daily average slaughter of group pig enterprises increased month - on - month. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption seasons were approaching, the recovery of terminal consumption was slow, and the supply - demand relationship remained loose [5] Palm Oil - On September 11, the palm oil futures market stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive line with a lower shadow. The highest price was 9334, the lowest was 9208, and the closing price was 9330, a rise of 0.93% from the previous day. From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and output decreased compared with the same period last month [6] Shanghai Copper - The high probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and the weakening of the US dollar increased the allocation value of copper, providing upward momentum for the Shanghai copper price. However, global trade frictions were still uncertain, and the tight supply pattern of mines was difficult to change in the short term. With the deepening of the traditional consumption season and the promotion of relevant industrial policies, the downstream demand was expected to be further released, especially the increasing demand from the new energy and power industries, but the recovery speed of traditional consumption areas remained to be seen [6] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13830 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 163 lots compared with the previous trading day. Pakistan's first genetically modified cotton was developed and was being tested in some areas, with a yield more than three times the current national average [6] Iron Ore - On September 11, the 2601 main contract of iron ore closed down with a decline of 0.81%, at 795.5 yuan. The global iron ore shipment volume and port arrival volume decreased, and the iron - water output declined significantly. However, due to the good profits of steel mills, the demand for iron - water was expected to recover, and the short - term iron ore price fluctuated [6] Asphalt - On September 11, the 2511 main contract of asphalt closed up with a rise of 0.76%, at 3463 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased, but the shipment volume of asphalt manufacturers decreased. Affected by weather, the demand showed the characteristic of "peak season without prosperity", and the short - term price fluctuated [7] Logs - On September 11, the log futures price rebounded and touched the 60 - day moving average. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There was no significant contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and the spot trading was weak [7][8] Steel - On September 11, rb2601 closed at 3092 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3334 yuan/ton. Some steel mills resumed production this week, increasing the consumption of iron ore. After the first - round price cut of coke, it was weakly stable. Due to the slow recovery of downstream terminal demand in "Golden September", high - price sales were difficult, and the decline of rebar and iron ore futures on Thursday intensified market wait - and - see sentiment, resulting in repeated price fluctuations in the short term [8] Alumina - On September 11, ao2601 closed at 2945 yuan/ton. Alumina maintained a weak and fluctuating operation. Supply surplus and warehouse receipt pressure were the upper limits, but the support around the full - cost of 2850 yuan was strengthening. The price stability depended on the interruption of Guinea's ore supply and the demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" season. If there were disturbances in the ore end and the rebound of aluminum prices, alumina might have a phased recovery in the fourth quarter [8] Shanghai Aluminum - On September 11, al2510 closed at 20915 yuan/ton. The current aluminum market had multiple positive factors in the macro - aspect, providing strong support for the price. However, downstream industries were cautious in purchasing, and the release of inventory demand was limited. Affected by weak cost support and bearish market sentiment, the electrolytic aluminum price would remain strong, but attention should be paid to raw material prices and downstream actual demand [9]

Variety Views - On September 10, A-share's three major indexes rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.13% to 3812.22, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.38% to 12557.68, and the ChiNext Index up 1.27% to 2904.27. The trading volume of the two markets was 1978.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 140.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated on September 10, closing at 4445.36, up 9.11 [1]. - On September 10, the coke weighted index showed a weak oscillation, closing at 1612.3, down 12.1 [1]. - On September 10, the coking coal weighted index remained weak, closing at 1121.0 yuan, down 22.5 [2]. Impact on Coke and Coking Coal Futures Prices - Coke: Last week, coke enterprises in the northern region were restricted by production limits, but this week's production rate is expected to recover. Steel mills' production will resume this week. Downstream demand is average, with on - demand procurement. Coke enterprises' inventory is accumulating, and the spot market sentiment is weakening with a price cut expectation [3]. - Coking coal: Last week, the coal mine's production rate declined significantly, but it is expected to recover this week. Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level this year, and the downstream receiving enthusiasm is average, with the spot market quotation slightly falling. The downstream enterprises' production rate decreased last week due to production limits, but they still have the motivation to operate due to good profits. The market is waiting for the peak season to start downstream replenishment [3]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Recently, the Brazilian ethanol price has risen, which may lead sugar mills to modify the sugar/ethanol production ratio. Affected by this, the US sugar rebounded on Tuesday. Supported by factors such as the US sugar's stable rebound and stable spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose slightly on Wednesday. At night, it fluctuated slightly higher. Vietnam's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to continue to grow, with sugarcane production exceeding 13.34 million tons and sugar production exceeding 1.37 million tons, an increase of 8.24% year - on - year [3]. Rubber - Due to the large decline in the previous trading day, the Shanghai rubber oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Wednesday. Bosch's CEO expects the automotive industry to face intense competition next year, limiting production. Thailand's meteorological agency warned of possible floods from September 10 - 11. Affected by these factors, the Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher at night. In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a slight decrease of 1% month - on - month and a 35% increase year - on - year. From January to August this year, the cumulative sales exceeded 700,000 vehicles, reaching about 708,000, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [4]. Soybean Meal - On September 10, CBOT soybean futures closed down. As the US soybean harvest is about to start, the supply pressure is rising without Chinese purchases. The US Department of Agriculture will release a monthly supply - demand report on Friday, and the market expects a slight decrease in the US soybean yield and a high probability of a decrease in US soybean export data. In the domestic market, on September 10, the soybean meal futures price oscillated. The M2601 main contract closed at 3066 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. The import soybean crushing volume remains high, and the soybean meal output is large. Last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory reached 1.16 million tons, a new high in nearly a year. Although the import of soybeans in the past two months has exceeded expectations, the Sino - US trade negotiation is undecided, and the market expects a decline in future supply. The soybean meal price will continue to oscillate [4][6]. Live Pigs - On September 10, the live pig futures price oscillated. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13315 yuan/ton, up 0.64%. Currently, the production capacity is being realized, the inventory of suitable - weight and medium - large pigs is increasing, and the daily sales pressure of group pig enterprises is increasing, resulting in an oversupply in the market. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day are approaching, the terminal consumption recovery is slow, and it is difficult to form strong support in the short term. The live pig supply - demand situation remains loose [6]. Shanghai Copper - The US PPI in August showed an unexpected 0.1% monthly decline in the final product price of total demand, with an annual increase of 2.6%, far lower than the market expectation. This indicates that the expected acceleration of wholesale inflation did not occur. Global copper inventories are still at a historical low. LME copper inventory decreased by 400 tons to 78,225 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants continued to decline. The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5752 tons to 36,110 tons this week, which supports the copper price. However, the peak - season demand expectation is weak, the price decline is supported, but there is no upward momentum, and the overall center of gravity moves up slowly [7]. Iron Ore - On September 10, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed up 0.25%, at 805 yuan. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased this period, and the arrival volume also decreased slightly, resulting in a tightened supply. The molten iron production decreased significantly, but due to good steel mill profits, the demand for molten iron is expected to recover. The short - term iron ore price will oscillate [7]. Asphalt - On September 10, the asphalt 2511 main contract closed up 0.88%, at 3450 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate continued to decline, and the asphalt manufacturers' shipment volume increased slightly. With the arrival of the peak season, the terminal demand is expected to improve, but the actual driving force is still limited. The short - term asphalt price will oscillate [7]. Logs - On September 10, the log 2511 contract opened at 803, with a minimum of 801, a maximum of 808, and closed at 806.5, with a daily reduction of 442 lots. The futures price rebounded to the 60 - day moving average of 812. Attention should be paid to the support at the 800 mark and the pressure at 812. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, both unchanged from the previous day. Customs data on the 8th showed that the import of logs and sawn timber from January to August decreased by 13.2% year - on - year. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price in the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on the price [8]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,860 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 137 lots compared with the previous trading day. Heavy rain and floods in the Pakistani cotton area affected cotton harvesting [8]. Steel - On September 10, rb2601 closed at 3109 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3342 yuan/ton. The demand recovery in the steel market in "Golden September" is still slow. Low - price resources are traded well, while high - price resources are not. Currently, the market is in a fierce long - short game, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Downstream terminals purchase on - demand, and the steel price may continue to oscillate narrowly [8]. Alumina - On September 10, ao2601 closed at 2933 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina production capacity and weekly output are at a high level, and enterprises still have a certain profit margin. There is also an expectation of new production capacity in the future, so the supply will be continuously sufficient. The downstream electrolytic aluminum is already operating at full capacity, and without new production capacity, the downstream demand cannot increase, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance and continuous inventory accumulation. In this context, the alumina market remains in a state of oversupply, and the price continues to oscillate weakly [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 10, al2510 closed at 20,790 yuan/ton. The macro environment remains favorable. Fundamentally, the downstream demand has improved marginally, the proportion of molten aluminum has increased, and the ingot casting volume has decreased. However, the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventory has not arrived, and the actual demand has not improved significantly. The cost upward space of downstream enterprises is limited, but there are still expectations of interest rate cuts and a peak season. The aluminum price is supported at the bottom, and the subsequent price still depends on the realization of the consumption peak season [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced a collective correction on September 9, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.23%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.23%. The trading volume in the two markets shrank by 300.2 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The overall market showed a weak trend [1]. - The prices of coal and coke futures are affected by multiple factors. The consumption of coke decreased by 4.7% following the decline in molten iron. The inventory situation is mixed, with mine coking coal starting to destock (a single - week destocking of 5.48%) and coke enterprises' coke inventory continuing to accumulate (a single - week accumulation of 1.84%). The price drivers are mainly the ongoing replenishment of steel mill furnace materials, the improved demand in the peak season due to better sales of downstream building materials and hot - rolled coils, and the suppression of coal mine复产 limits by the energy bureau's follow - up spot checks on some production areas, which is generally beneficial to the supply - demand relationship of coal and coke [5]. 3. Summary by Variety [Stock Index Futures] - On September 9, the A - share market's three major indexes all declined. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3807.29 points, down 0.51%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12510.60 points, down 1.23%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2867.97 points, down 2.23%. The trading volume in the two markets was 2.1185 trillion yuan, a decrease of 300.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index also showed a weakening trend, closing at 4436.26, a decrease of 31.32 from the previous day [1][2]. [Coke and Coking Coal] - On September 9, the weighted index of coke was weak, closing at 1606.3, a decrease of 17.8. The weighted index of coking coal also showed a weak operation, closing at 1127.4 yuan, a decrease of 18.7. The consumption of coke decreased by 4.7% following the decline in molten iron. Mine coking coal started to destock (a single - week destocking of 5.48%), while coke enterprises' coke inventory continued to accumulate (a single - week accumulation of 1.84%). The price drivers are mainly the ongoing replenishment of steel mill furnace materials, the improved demand in the peak season due to better sales of downstream building materials and hot - rolled coils, and the suppression of coal mine复产 limits by the energy bureau's follow - up spot checks on some production areas [3][4][5]. [Zhengzhou Sugar] - Due to a large short - term decline, the US sugar rebounded on Monday. However, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract was pressured by short - sellers and showed a slight decline during the day. At night, it rose slightly due to short - covering. A survey shows that the sugar beet production in the EU 27 countries and the UK in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 113.6 million tons, less than 1% higher than the previous estimate, with an estimated range between 103.6 million and 123.6 million tons, due to improved weather conditions in Western and Central Europe supporting the late - stage growth of crops [5]. [Rubber] - Due to the slowdown in exports, the operating rate of tire enterprises declined. Last week, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 58.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.08%. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 69.07%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.5%. Affected by this and the increase in natural rubber imports in August, long - position liquidation pressured the Shanghai rubber futures to fall sharply on Tuesday. Due to the large short - term decline, it entered a consolidation phase at night. In August 2025, China imported a total of 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. From January to August, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19% [6]. [Palm Oil] - On September 9, the palm oil futures market showed a slight fluctuation, waiting for the impetus from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) monthly report on the next day. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive line with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 9506, the lowest was 9428, and the closing price was 9486, up 0.21% from the previous day. As of September 5, 2025 (week 36), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 619,300 tons, an increase of 9,200 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 1.51%, and an increase of 62,900 tons compared to 556,400 tons in the same period last year, a growth rate of 11.31% [6][8]. [Soybean Meal] - On September 9, the CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. As of the week ending September 7, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 64%, higher than the market expectation of 63% but still lower than the previous period and the same period last year. With the upcoming soybean harvest in the US and the lack of Chinese purchases of new - season US soybeans, the supply pressure of US soybeans continues to increase. In the domestic market, on September 9, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated. The main contract M2601 closed at 3075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19%. The crushing volume of imported soybeans remains high, resulting in a large output of soybean meal. Last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory reached 1.16 million tons, a new high in nearly a year. In the past two months, the volume of imported soybeans arriving in China has exceeded expectations. With the large export potential of Brazilian soybeans and domestic reserve resources, the supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is still strongly guaranteed, limiting the upward potential of soybean meal's long - term price, and it may continue to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean import situations [8]. [Live Pigs] - On September 9, the live pig futures price showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The main contract LH2511 closed at 13,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56%. Currently, the production capacity is in the concentrated realization stage. The inventory of suitable - weight standard pigs and medium - large pigs has increased, and the daily sales pressure of large - scale pig enterprises has increased, resulting in an oversupply in the market. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption peak seasons are approaching, the recovery of terminal consumption is slow, and it is difficult to form strong support in the short term. The supply - demand relationship remains loose, and the live pig futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly. Future attention should be paid to the pig slaughter rhythm and market demand [9]. [Shanghai Copper] - Geopolitical tensions have intensified. US President Trump said he was ready to launch the "second - stage sanctions" against Russia, which may even involve pressure on oil trade, increasing market uncertainty and suppressing the outlook for metal demand. Fundamentally, the supply of copper mines is still tight. The Panama copper mine is about to enter the environmental audit stage. Terminal consumption feedback is weak, the premium has回调 from a high level, and there is a gap between the expected peak consumption season and the actual performance, putting downward pressure on copper prices. Attention should be paid to macroeconomic data, policy changes, and dynamic adjustments in the supply - demand relationship [9]. [Cotton] - On the night of September 9, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,835 yuan/ton. On September 10, the minimum basis quotation at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market was 1,190 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 112 lots compared to the previous day [9]. [Logs] - On September 9, the 2511 log futures contract opened at 806, with a minimum of 801.5, a maximum of 810, and closed at 805.5, with a daily reduction of 19 lots. The futures price rebounded and touched the 60 - day moving average of 812. Attention should be paid to the support at the 800 mark and the pressure at 812. On September 9, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. According to customs data on the 8th, from January to August, the import of logs and sawn timber decreased by 13.2% year - on - year. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Spot transactions are weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on prices [10]. [Iron Ore] - On September 9, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and rose, with a growth rate of 2.03%, and closed at 805 yuan. The global shipment volume of iron ore in this period decreased compared to the previous period, and the arrival volume also decreased slightly, resulting in a tightened supply. The molten iron output decreased significantly in stages. However, due to the current good profits of steel mills, there is an expectation of a rebound in molten iron demand after the end of the phased production restrictions. In the short term, the iron ore price is in a fluctuating trend [10]. [Asphalt] - On September 9, the main contract of asphalt 2511 fluctuated and closed higher, with a growth rate of 0.09%, and closed at 3420 yuan. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of asphalt continued to decline, and the shipment volume of asphalt manufacturers increased slightly. With the arrival of the peak season, there is an expectation of improved terminal demand, but the actual driving force is still limited. In the short term, the asphalt price will mainly fluctuate [11][12]. [Steel] - On September 9, rb2601 closed at 3132 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3352 yuan/ton. The trading volume of construction steel exceeded 110,000 tons, and the "Golden September" demand has improved, but the recovery momentum is not stable. At the same time, with the resumption of production of blast furnaces in Tangshan, the molten iron output of steel mills may remain at a high level. In addition, the prices of raw fuels have shown different trends recently, with coking coal and coke prices being weak and iron ore prices being strong. The iron ore futures led the rise in the black - series commodities, driving some steel markets to stop falling and rebound. In the short term, it may not break away from the fluctuating pattern, and attention should be paid to the actual demand in the "Golden September" and whether the supply - demand fundamentals are substantially improved [12]. [Alumina] - On September 9, ao2601 closed at 2929 yuan/ton. The downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises have not yet entered the peak - season trading period, and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity has reached its peak, so the demand for raw materials is not sustainable, and it is difficult to stimulate the enthusiasm for purchasing alumina in the short term. In the spot market, the spot price continued to fall, the quotes of holders began to loosen, the inquiry situation of downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises was average, and overall, they maintained just - in - time procurement. The overall trading atmosphere was dull, with more low - price transactions, but large - scale transactions were still difficult to form, and the daily trading performance was mediocre [12]. [Shanghai Aluminum] - On September 9, al2510 closed at 20,750 yuan/ton. Consumption showed signs of recovery, but the supply of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the inventory still had a slight accumulation. In the spot market, in the East China region, the market was mainly for selling, and the purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises was average. In the Central Plains market, downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods weakened. The supply side has a slight increase, and the consumption side shows marginal recovery signs, with an expectation of continued improvement in demand. However, the high aluminum price suppresses downstream consumption, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to accumulate. Attention should be paid to inventory and demand changes [13].

Report Overview - The report is the Guoxin Guozheng Futures Morning Report on September 9, 2025, covering multiple futures varieties and related market information [1] Market Performance on September 8, 2025 Stock Index Futures - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% to 3826.84 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.61% to 12666.84 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.84% to 2933.25 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2418.7 billion yuan, an increase of 114.1 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4467.57, a rise of 7.25 [2] Commodity Futures - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1627.2, a rise of 5.1 [3] - Coking Coal: The weighted index closed at 1147.5 yuan, a rise of 17.4 [4] - Palm Oil: The main contract P2601 closed at 9466, a decrease of 0.63% [6] - Bean Meal: The main contract M2601 closed at 3081 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.46% [9] - Live Hogs: The main contract LH2511 closed at 13305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.15% [10] - Iron Ore: The main contract 2601 closed at 792 yuan, a rise of 0.64% [11] - Asphalt: The main contract 2511 closed at 3440 yuan, a rise of 0.29% [11] - Logs: Opened at 800, lowest at 796, highest at 814, and closed at 807.5, with a daily reduction of 1047 lots [12] - Steel: rb2601 closed at 3132 yuan/ton, hc2601 closed at 3352 yuan/ton [12] - Alumina: ao2601 closed at 2960 yuan/ton [13] - Shanghai Aluminum: al2510 closed at 20720 yuan/ton [13] Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The first round of price cuts is expected to be implemented this week. Coking plants still have profits, and those that previously reduced production due to environmental protection or temporary reasons are gradually resuming production. The daily customs clearance vehicle number at the 288 port of Mongolian coal has recovered to over 1200 vehicles. Downstream coke enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and there are many cases of auction failures or price - cut transactions in major mines in Shanxi [5] - Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal and coke has increased in the short term, iron - water production has declined, demand is weak, and the supply - demand relationship has weakened marginally. However, the speculation against "involution" has heated up again, and there are still disturbances on the coal mine supply side, and the inspection of over - production still needs attention. There is an expectation of an increase in iron - water production [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Favorable prospects for sugarcane crops in India and Thailand, and Brazilian sugar mills' preference for sugar production over ethanol, as well as increased corn - ethanol production in the US, have restricted the upward movement of US sugar. Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract stopped falling and rebounded slightly on Monday due to stable spot prices and technical factors, but fell slightly at night due to short - selling pressure. As of September 2, the net short position of hedge funds and large speculators in raw sugar increased by 11067 lots to 85805 lots [5] Rubber - Shanghai rubber adjusted on Monday due to large short - term gains and technical factors, and fell slightly at night due to short - selling pressure. As of September 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 10,000 tons to 592,300 tons, a decrease of 1.66% [6] Bean Meal - CBOT soybean futures rose on September 8 due to a decline in the growth condition of US soybeans. The excellent - good rate of US soybeans as of September 7 was 64%. The predicted output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 1.8092 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. In the domestic market, the price of bean meal is in a state of loose supply, and it may maintain a volatile adjustment. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports [9] Live Hogs - The price of live hogs was weakly volatile on September 8. The large - scale enterprises' slaughter volume in the first and middle of September increased month - on - month, suppressing the futures price. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day are approaching, the recovery of terminal consumption is slow. In the long - term, the inventory of breeding sows in July reached 103.6% of the normal level, and if there is no epidemic, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized, and the price will remain low [10] Shanghai Copper - Disappointing US non - farm payroll data has reduced investors' risk appetite and demand expectations, putting pressure on Shanghai copper prices. The inventory of electrolytic copper has continued to accumulate. In the short term, copper prices may fluctuate, with support at 79000 - 79400 yuan/ton and resistance at 80000 - 80400 yuan/ton [10] Iron Ore - The main contract of iron ore 2601 rose on September 8. The global iron ore shipment last week reached a high for the year, and the arrival volume also increased month - on - month. Although iron - water production has decreased significantly, the demand for iron ore is still supported due to good steel mill profits. In the short term, iron ore prices will fluctuate [11] Asphalt - The main contract of asphalt 2511 rose on September 8. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt continued to decline last week, and the shipment volume of asphalt manufacturers increased slightly. The demand expectation has improved, but the actual driving force is limited. In the short term, asphalt prices will fluctuate [11] Logs - The supply - demand relationship of logs has no major contradictions, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Spot transactions are weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price in the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [12] Steel - After the sharp rise and fall of coking coal and coke futures on Friday, the black futures fluctuated repeatedly. With the alleviation of high - temperature weather, the demand for steel in September has improved marginally, but there is also pressure on supply expansion. In the short term, steel prices may fluctuate narrowly, and attention should be paid to the demand in September [12] Alumina - The spot price of alumina continued to fall, and the futures and spot prices are basically matched. After the sharp decline, some smelters and traders have started to buy at low prices. The short - term negative impact of oversupply has been partially released, but the rebound space is limited, and it will fluctuate narrowly in the short term [13] Shanghai Aluminum - Macroscopically, attention should be paid to the impact of US non - farm payroll data on the Fed's interest - rate cut path, and the guidance of the "15th Five - Year Plan" on the industrial field. Fundamentally, the supply of aluminum ingots is normal, and the social inventory is accumulating slightly. There are regional differences in demand, with better demand in central China and Shandong, and weaker demand in East China [13]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On September 5, 2025, the A-share market had a significant rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.24%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 3.89%, and the ChiNext Index up 6.55%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2304.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 239.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, production costs, and market sentiment. For example, some futures were in a weak - shock state, while others had short - term rebounds or declines [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Product Stock Index Futures - On September 5, the three major A - share indexes rose sharply. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.51 points, up 1.24%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12590.56 points, up 3.89%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2958.18 points, up 6.55%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2304.7 billion yuan, down 239.6 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4460.32, up 95.12 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 5, the coke weighted index rebounded strongly, closing at 1651.0, up 74.3; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated widely, closing at 1160.4 yuan, up 72.1. The eighth round of coke price increase by coking plants was resisted by steel mills. Coking profits improved, leading to increased production enthusiasm. The coking coal market showed some looseness, with an increase in the auction failure rate [3][4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The sugarcane crop prospects in India and Thailand are favorable after heavy rain this year, and Brazilian sugar mills tend to produce more sugar. Negative factors such as Brazilian corn ethanol have a great impact on Brazilian sugar exports. The US sugar market oscillated slightly lower on September 5, while the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract rebounded slightly due to technical factors and bargain - hunting [6][7]. Rubber - Due to a large short - term increase, the Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and consolidated overnight on September 5. As of September 5, the natural rubber inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 7027 tons to 205360 tons, and the futures warrants decreased by 16410 tons to 162230 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory increased by 1614 tons to 50400 tons, and the futures warrants increased by 907 tons to 46569 tons [7]. Soybean Meal - On September 5, the CBOT soybean futures closed down. The domestic soybean meal futures oscillated. The M2601 main contract closed at 3067 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The domestic soybean meal supply is expected to increase in the short term, but there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of 2026, which may support the price [8]. Live Pigs - On September 5, the live pig futures prices were in a weak oscillation. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13325 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. The increase in the supply of group enterprises in the short term and the slow recovery of terminal consumption have put pressure on the futures prices. In the long term, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized [9]. Palm Oil - On the night of September 5, palm oil futures oscillated downward due to the reduction of long - position holdings by some investors. The main contract P2601 closed at 9440, down 0.9% from the previous trading day [9]. Shanghai Copper - On the night of September 5, the Shanghai copper main contract showed a weak pattern of opening high and moving low. In the short term, it may continue to oscillate weakly and test support levels. Before the macro - demand improves substantially, the price is difficult to get out of the weak pattern [10]. Logs - On September 5, the 2511 log futures opened at 796, with a minimum of 792.5, a maximum of 803, and closed at 800, with a reduction of 701 lots. The futures price was below the 60 - day moving average, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the 800 mark [10]. Iron Ore - On September 5, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed up 0.77%, at 789.5 yuan. The global iron ore shipment has rebounded to a high this year, and the arrival volume has also increased. The short - term iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [12]. Asphalt - On September 5, the asphalt 2511 main contract oscillated and declined, down 1.15%, closing at 3437 yuan. The short - term asphalt price is mainly in an oscillating state [12]. Cotton - On the night of September 5, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13925 yuan/ton. As of September 8, the base - price quotation of the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market was at least 1160 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 119 lots compared with the previous trading day [13]. Steel - The anti - involution hype expectation has driven up the prices of coking coal and steel. The steel fundamentals are currently weak, but the market still has expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season demand. The short - term steel futures prices are relatively strong, but attention should be paid to the authenticity of the anti - involution expectation [13]. Alumina - The termination of EGA's bauxite business in Guinea has little impact on the bauxite supply. The alumina fundamentals are weak, with a slight increase in supply and stable demand [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - The alumina supply is relatively loose, and the electrolytic aluminum smelting profit is good. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is gradually recovering [14].