客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 星期五 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（6 月 26 日） A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.22%，收报 3448.45 点；深 证成指跌 0.48%，收报 10343.48 点；创业板指跌 0.66%，收报 2114.43 点。沪深两市成交额达到 15832 亿，较昨 日小幅缩量 196 亿。 沪深 300 指数 6 月 26 日回调整理，收盘 3946.02，环比下跌 14.05。 【焦炭 焦煤】6 月 26 日焦炭加权指数震荡趋强，收盘价 1399.0 元，环比上涨 25.3。 6 月 26 日，焦煤加权指数强势，收盘价 826.8 元，环比上涨 27.0。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦炭现货提降，焦企保持小幅亏损，无主动提产动能，高频数据显示焦企开工下滑，供应收缩。需求， 淡季钢厂铁水产量暂时企稳，上周钢联口径铁水产量周环比小幅回升，炉料日耗有支撑。焦炭供应边际下滑，叠 加真实需求有所好转，焦企库存压力缓解。 客服产品系列•日评 月全球天胶产量料降 1.2%至 104 万吨，较上月增加 35.6%； ...

品种观点 股指期货 - 6月24日A股三大指数集体走强，沪指涨1.15%收报3420.57点，深证成指涨1.68%收报10217.63点，创业板指涨2.30%收报2064.13点，沪深两市成交额达14146亿，较昨日大幅放量2920亿 [1] 焦炭 焦煤 - 6月24日焦炭加权指数震荡趋弱，收盘价1355.6元，环比下跌26.5；焦煤加权指数弱势，收盘价792.7元，环比下跌13.0 [2] - 焦炭受环保检查及焦化利润收紧等因素影响开工降低，钢厂原料备货低库存，刚需及采购需求走弱，河北及山东主流钢厂落实第四轮50 - 55元/吨提降 [3] - 焦煤因安全生产及环保检查放缓生产节奏，原煤供给环比走低，但矿山累库压力不减，库存处历史高位，钢焦企业放缓补库，中长期过剩格局难改 [3] 郑糖 - 美糖周一窄幅震荡小幅收低，受原油价格下跌影响多头平仓打压，郑糖2509月合约周二小幅走低，夜盘波动不大窄幅震荡 [3] - 2025年5月我国成品糖产量37.7万吨，同比增长59.1%；1 - 5月累计产量906.6万吨，同比增长4.9% [3] - 截止6月17日当周，对冲基金及大型投机客持有的原糖净空头仓位47141手，触及近年来高位，较之前一周增加27626手 [3] 胶 - 受原油价格大幅走低与东南亚现货报价下调等因素影响，沪胶周二震荡下行，夜盘因短线跌幅大受技术面影响震荡整理 [4] - 2025年5月中国橡胶轮胎外胎产量10199.3万条，同比下降1.2%；1 - 5月产量4.88962亿条，同比增2.8% [4] - 2025年5月中国合成橡胶产量69.9万吨，同比增加3.7%；1 - 5月累计产量353.4万吨，同比增加6.2% [4] 豆粕 - 国际市场6月24日CBOT大豆期货偏弱运行，美国中西部有利天气改善作物收成前景令价格承压，截止6月22日当周大豆优良率66%，低于预期和去年同期 [4] - 巴西全国谷物出口商协会预估6月大豆出口量达1499万吨，高于前一周预估值 [6] - 国内市场6月24日豆粕主力M2509收于3037元/吨，较前一交易日持平，5月中国从巴西进口大豆1211万吨，较去年同期激增37.5%，创下单月进口新高 [6] 生猪 - 6月23日生猪主力LH2509合约收于13905元/吨，跌幅0.29% [6] - 养殖端出栏情绪分化，中大猪认卖积极性提升，标猪认卖意愿一般，二育有滚动入场现象 [6] - 居民消费疲软，气温升高、饮食结构调整致鲜品猪肉走货差，商品猪出栏处于恢复期，猪源供应逐月递增，市场供需宽松，期货盘面上行空间受限 [6] 棕榈油 - 6月24日因中东局势缓和原油大幅回落，棕榈油期价跌2.28%，当日最高价8500，最低价8306，收盘8326 [7] - 印尼4月棕榈油出口量178万吨，较去年同期的218万吨下降，4月毛棕榈油产量448万吨，较3月增加，截至4月末库存量304万吨 [7] 沪铜 - 美联储金融监管副主席鲍曼对7月降息持开放态度，表态偏鸽，市场对降息预期提升，短暂提振铜价 [7] - 铜库存不断刷新阶段性低位，为铜价提供支撑，短期内沪铜在供应收缩预期和需求可能回暖作用下，价格下方空间有限，但需求端疲软，上方空间或受限 [7] 铁矿石 - 6月24日铁矿石2509主力合约震荡收跌，跌幅0.42%，收盘价703元 [8] - 本期铁矿海外发运量环比回升，国内到港量同步增加，供应环比宽松，钢厂高炉利润尚可按需补库，铁水产量止跌回升，短期呈震荡走势 [8] 沥青 - 6月24日沥青2509主力合约震荡下跌，跌幅5.01%，收盘价3580元 [8] - 沥青产能利用率环比回落，库存下滑，供应维持低位，出货情况改善，因中东地缘局势缓和原油价格调整，成本端上行驱动消失，短期价格震荡运行 [8] 棉花 - 周二夜盘郑棉主力合约收盘13565元/吨，6月25日全国棉花交易市场新疆指定交割（监管）仓库基差报价最低430元/吨，棉花库存较上一交易日减少74张 [8] 原木 - 6月24日2507开盘816、最低802.5、最高818.5、收盘806.5、日减仓2093手，关注806 - 820区间波动 [9] - 6月24日山东3.9米中A辐射松原木现货价格750元/方，江苏4米中A辐射松原木现货价格760元/方，较昨日持平 [9] - 1 - 5月原木进口量同比减少13.4%，5月进口量同比减少18.5%，港口原木库存逼近5个月新低，需求弱，供需无大矛盾，现货成交弱 [9] 钢材 - 6月24日rb2510收报2977元/吨，hc2510收报3099元/吨 [9] - 螺纹钢供应回升，需求季节性弱势，供增需弱基本面延续弱稳，钢价承压，但库存低位，现实矛盾有限，预计钢价维持低位震荡运行态势 [9] 氧化铝 - 6月24日ao2509收报2903元/吨 [10] - 矿端无较大扰动，国内前期停产检修企业复产，但氧化铝价格走软利润下行，对供应形成压制，利润空间或继续缩窄，底部有成本支撑 [10] 沪铝 - 6月24日al2508收报于20315元/吨 [10] - 国内电解铝生产稳定，交易所 + 社会库存小幅累库，现货升水状态维持，未锻轧铝及铝材出口量走增，下游需求进入淡季，压铸企业开工率下行，价格运行上下有限 [10]

沪深 300 指数 6 月 23 日震荡趋强，收盘 3857.90，环比上涨 11.26。 客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 6 月 24 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一（6 月 23 日）A 股三大指数集体上涨，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.65%，收报 3381.58 点；深 证成指涨 0.43%，收报 10048.39 点；创业板指涨 0.39%，收报 2017.63 点。沪深两市成交额达到 11226 亿，较上 周五放量 549 亿。 【焦炭 焦煤】6 月 23 日焦炭加权指数窄幅整理，收盘价 1391.7 元，环比上涨 9.6。 6 月 23 日，焦煤加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 818.2 元，环比上涨 12.5。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：产地煤价涨跌互现，煤矿成交有所好转，但焦价存下行预期，预计本周落地第四轮提降，焦企出货压 力较大，终端需求谨慎。 焦煤：部分事故影响的煤矿仍未复工，叠加环保影响，供应量持续收缩。受悲观预期影响，钢焦企仍保持谨 慎采购，但本周部分下游焦企适度增加采购量，煤矿销售压力缓解，部分去库明显。焦煤竞拍成交涨跌互现，市 场流拍率有所下 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 6 月 10 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一（6 月 9 日）A 股三大指数集体收涨，沪指涨 0.43%，收报 3399.77 点；深证成指涨 0.65%， 收报 10250.14 点；创业板指涨 1.07%，收报 2061.29 点；沪深两市成交额 12864 亿，较前一个交易日放量 1344 亿。 沪深 300 指数 6 月 9 日强势，收盘 3399.77，环比上涨 14.41。 【焦炭 焦煤】6 月 9 日焦炭加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 1340.4 元，环比下跌 16.1。 6 月 9 日，焦煤加权指数窄幅震荡，收盘价 782.0 元，环比上涨 1.0。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：天津、吕梁以及唐山准一级冶金焦价格不变，日照准一级冶金焦下跌 40/吨。供应，焦化企业生产利 润亏损幅度缩小，目前焦企生产亏损 20 元/吨左右，焦化企业持续亏损，焦化企业开工负荷小幅下降，本周独立 焦企日均产量减少 0.27 万吨，247 家钢厂焦炭日均产量减少 0.04 万吨。需求，国内钢材需求回落，螺纹表需回 落 19.65 万吨至 2 ...

Variety Views - On June 5th, the three major A-share indices closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.23% to 3384.10 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.58% to 10203.50 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.17% to 2048.62 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 137.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index remained strong, closing at 3877.56, a increase of 8.81 [1] - On June 5th, the coke weighted index fluctuated and sorted out, closing at 1343.0 yuan, a increase of 7.4 [1] - On June 5th, the coking coal weighted index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 759.1 yuan, a increase of 11.8 [2] Influencing Factors of Futures Prices - For coke, the off-season expectation drags down the demand. The daily output of molten iron continues the seasonal decline trend, and the support of the coke's in-furnace rigid demand weakens synchronously. Steel mills maintain low inventory operation of raw materials and still have a strong sentiment of suppressing prices from upstream. There is still an expectation of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts for coke spot this month [3] - For coking coal, events such as the export resource tax of Mongolian coal and the safety production month disrupt the coal supply. However, the policy - based production reduction has not yet come, the tightening range of raw coal production is not significant, and the coal mine inventory is still at a historical high. The downstream demand enters the traditional off - season, the operating load of steel and coking enterprises and the enthusiasm for raw material stockpiling have decreased, the atmosphere of coking coal auctions at the pithead is cold, and the transaction price has not been boosted [3] - For Zheng sugar, the US sugar oscillated and fell on Tuesday, affected by favorable crop prospects, especially in India and Thailand. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zheng sugar 2509 contract oscillated and fell slightly on Thursday. The weather forecast shows that the monsoon rainfall in India may resume next week. Affected by this, the bears pressured the Zheng sugar 2509 contract to oscillate and decline at night. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi were 4.6453 million tons, an increase of 537,100 tons year - on - year; the sales - to - production ratio was 71.85%, an increase of 5.39 percentage points year - on - year. In May, the single - month sugar sales were 510,000 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons year - on - year; the monthly industrial inventory was 1.8197 million tons, a decrease of 253,500 tons year - on - year. In Yunnan Province, the cumulative sugar sales were 1.5558 million tons, and the sales - to - production ratio was 64.32% (the sales - to - production ratio in the same period last year was 57.65%); the industrial inventory was 862,900 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons year - on - year. In May, the sugar sales were 238,900 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons year - on - year [3] - For rubber, due to the large increase in the previous trading day, the Shanghai rubber oscillated and took a rest on Thursday under the influence of the technical side. The Thai meteorological agency said that from June 7th to 10th, heavy rain may cause flash floods. Supported by the deterioration of the weather conditions in Thailand, the Shanghai rubber oscillated and rose at night. According to data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in May 2025, the total sales of the heavy - truck market in China were about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a slight decrease of 5% from April this year and an increase of about 6% compared with 78,200 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market in China were about 435,500 vehicles, a slight increase of about 1% year - on - year [4] - For soybean meal, in the international market, on June 5th, the CBOT soybean futures oscillated and closed higher. The export sales report released by the US Department of Agriculture on Thursday showed that in the week ended May 29th, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the current market year was 194,300 tons, an increase of 33% from the previous week and a decrease of 30% from the average of the previous four weeks, which was at the lower end of the market's estimated range. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimated that the soybean export volume in Brazil in June would be 12.55 million tons, lower than 13.83 million tons in the same period last year. The soybean export volume in Brazil in May was 14.2 million tons. The agency maintained the outlook that Brazil would export 110 million tons of soybeans in 2025. In the domestic market, on June 5th, the soybean meal futures oscillated and closed higher. The main M2509 contract closed at 2,958 yuan/ton, with a increase of 0.65%. According to statistics, the domestic soybean meal inventory rose to 306,000 tons last weekend, an increase of 98,000 tons week - on - week. The oil refinery's operating rate has risen to over 60%, and the soybean meal inventory will continue to rise, highlighting the short - term increase in supply. Attention should be paid to the arrival volume of soybeans [5] - For live pigs, on June 5th, the live pig futures price oscillated. The main LH2509 contract closed at 13,485 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.04%. Currently, the overall consumer demand of residents is weak. With the significant increase in domestic temperature and the adjustment of residents' diet structure, there are many alternative consumptions, and the sales of fresh pork are poor. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end is gradually recovering, the price - holding sentiment of large - scale pig enterprises is weak, the daily slaughter pressure has increased slightly compared with the previous period, and there are operations of reducing weight and increasing volume for slaughter. Retailers and some secondary fattening farmers have followed the trend of selling off. The supply of standard pigs and medium - large pigs has accelerated, and the supply of suitable - weight pig sources is relatively sufficient. The market is in a pattern of loose supply. Short - term attention should be paid to the change in the live pig slaughter rhythm [5] - For palm oil, on June 5th, palm oil continued to maintain a small - range oscillating trend. By the close, the main contract P2509 K - line closed as a negative line with a lower shadow. The highest price on that day was 8,160, the lowest price was 8,064, and the closing price was 8,126, a decrease of 0.05% from the previous trading day. According to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from May 1st to 31st increased by 3.07%, among which the production in the Malay Peninsula increased by 4.05%, Sabah increased by 2.1%, Sarawak increased by 1.27%, and the eastern part of Malaysia increased by 1.9% [6] - For Shanghai copper, driven by factors such as the strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation leading to the decline of the US dollar index, the concentrated release of the replenishment demand in the new - energy industry chain, and the fermentation of the news of production restrictions in smelters in Yunnan, the main contract of Shanghai copper showed a pattern of narrow - range oscillation followed by a sharp rise. However, the overall driving force is limited, and the risk of a callback should be vigilant [6] - For cotton, the main contract of Zheng cotton closed at 13,390 yuan/ton on Thursday night. According to the China Cotton Information Network on June 6th, at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market, the lowest basis quote was 410 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 38 lots compared with the previous trading day [6] - For iron ore, on June 5th, the main 2509 contract of iron ore oscillated and closed lower, with a decrease of 0.14%, and the closing price was 701 yuan. The overseas shipment volume and domestic arrival volume of iron ore in this period have both increased. Affected by the entry of terminal demand into the off - season and the decline of blast - furnace profits, the molten - iron output has decreased for three consecutive periods, and the demand may further decline. It presents a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. Iron ore shows an oscillating trend in the short term [7] - For asphalt, on June 5th, the main 2507 contract of asphalt oscillated and closed lower, with a decrease of 0.4%, and the closing price was 3,497 yuan. The planned asphalt production volume of domestic refineries in June has increased year - on - year, and the rainy weather in the south suppresses the demand. Under the pressure of supply and demand, the fundamentals lack driving force, and the asphalt shows an oscillating trend [7] - For logs, on June 5th, the 2507 contract opened at 758, the lowest was 746, the highest was 759.5, and it closed at 746.5, with a daily increase of 2,057 lots. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price at 750 - 770 and the pressure at 790. There is certain support at the spot end. As the market enters June, attention should be paid to information on delivery. The spot market price of logs on June 5th: the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. The port log inventory has increased slightly, and the overall demand is still weak. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. The market has entered the off - season, and the spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the spot price, import data, the willingness of downstream buyers to purchase, and the price - holding intention of traders [7][8] - For steel, on June 5th, rb2510 closed at 2,959 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3,077 yuan/ton. The production of the five major steel products has decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, the terminal demand for rebar has dropped significantly under the background of the switch between the peak and off - seasons and is weaker than the same period in previous years. The inventory of rebar in steel mills has accumulated. Recently, the macro - incremental information has been gradually realized in the market, and the trading logic has switched back to fundamental - driven. In the short term, steel is in a repair market under low valuation [10] - For alumina, on June 5th, ao2509 closed at 2,943 yuan/ton. The sentiment of the incident in the Guinea mining area has subsided, and the current impact magnitude is not enough to reverse the annual surplus of ore. The spot transaction of alumina is maintained at around 3,300 yuan. After the industry profit is repaired, the supply elasticity is large, and production has resumed. The domestic operating capacity of alumina has increased by 1.3 million tons to 89.3 million tons month - on - month. The long - term surplus pattern of alumina remains unchanged [10] - For Shanghai aluminum, on June 5th, al2507 closed at 20,010 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market sentiment may be affected by the tariff shock and suppress the aluminum price. At the same time, the unexpected reduction of domestic aluminum ingot inventory gives support to the aluminum price and the spot premium. Currently, some industries have shown an expectation of weakening in the off - season, but the overall decline is better than expected, and the demand resilience still exists. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum will maintain an oscillating operation, and the lower support is relatively stable [10]

Variety Views - On June 4, the three major A-share indexes closed up collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.42% to 3376.20 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.87% to 10144.58 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.11% to 2024.93 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.6 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index was strong on June 4, closing at 3868.741, a环比 increase of 16.73 [1] - On June 4, the weighted index of coke rebounded after an oversold, closing at 1368.0 yuan, a环比 increase of 73.2. The weighted index of coking coal stopped falling and fluctuated, closing at 770.4 yuan, a环比 increase of 51.5 [1][2] Factors Affecting Futures Prices Coke - The second round of price cuts in the spot market has been implemented. US President Trump announced an increase in steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% starting from June 4, causing market sentiment to fluctuate. The abundant supply of raw materials has weakened cost support, and iron water production has declined from its peak. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period is 39 yuan/ton [3] Coking Coal - The fundamentals show an abundant supply, with stable mine production. The inventory of clean coal has continued to increase this period [3] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by technical factors due to a large short - term decline, US sugar rebounded after hitting the bottom on Tuesday. Supported by factors such as a large short - term decline and the stabilization of US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract stabilized and rebounded on Wednesday. The night session of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated little, with a narrow - range oscillation and a slight increase. As of the week ending May 27, hedge funds and large speculators held 19,503 net long positions in raw sugar, a decrease of 8,928 from the previous week, hitting a two - and - a - half - month low. Long positions increased by 7,024 to 209,622, and short positions increased by 15,952 to 190,119 [3] Rubber - Affected by technical factors due to a large short - term decline and short - covering, Shanghai rubber oscillated and rebounded on Wednesday. The night session of Shanghai rubber fluctuated little, with a narrow - range oscillation and a slight decline. According to Longzhong Information, the arrival of overseas rubber supplies has continued to decrease recently, leading to a continuous decline in the total inventory of Qingdao spot. As of June 1, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 609,700 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.80% [4] Palm Oil - On June 4, palm oil rebounded weakly and returned to the range - bound pattern. The main contract P2509 closed with a negative K - line. The highest price on that day was 8210, the lowest price was 8102, and the closing price was 8130, a 0.81% increase from the previous trading day. A commodity research institution said that Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 19 million tons, the same as the previous forecast, with a forecast range of 18.5 - 19.5 million tons. Although the production in May remained resilient, there are signs that production has slowed down after a significant 21.5% month - on - month increase in April. It is expected that production will resume strong growth in the second half of 2025. Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May 2025 is expected to be 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% increase from April; production is expected to be 1.74 million tons, a 3% increase from April; and exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 17.9% increase from April [4][6] Soybean Meal - In the international market, on June 4, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher. Global soybean production is still promising, and the weather conditions in the US Midwest are generally good, boosting the crop yield outlook and restricting the increase in soybean prices. As of June 1, the sowing rate of soybeans in 2025 was 84%, higher than the five - year average of 80%. The National Association of Grain Exporters in Brazil estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in June are expected to be 12.55 million tons, lower than 13.83 million tons in the same period last year. In the domestic market, on June 4, soybean meal futures oscillated in a narrow range. The main contract M2509 closed at 2938 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase. Supported by the high - opening and high - pressing volume of oil mills, the inventory accumulation of soybean meal has accelerated slightly. As of the end of May, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills increased to 306,000 tons, highlighting the short - term increase in supply. Short - term attention should be paid to the arrival of soybeans [5] Live Pigs - On June 4, the futures price of live pigs oscillated weakly. The main contract 2509 closed at 13,490 yuan/ton, a 0.52% decrease. Currently, overall consumer demand is weak. With the significant increase in domestic temperatures and the adjustment of residents' diet structure, the sales of fresh pork are poor. At the beginning of the month, the slaughter of the breeding end has decreased slightly. The slaughter plan of large - scale pig enterprises is relatively small, and the willingness of small - scale pig farms to sell at low prices is insufficient, slightly reducing the market supply pressure. However, based on the previous calculation of sow inventory, the supply of standard pigs in June may increase month - on - month, and the market is generally in a pattern of abundant supply. Short - term attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter rhythm of live pigs [7] Shanghai Copper - After the release of the US ADP employment data in May, US President Trump said that Powell must cut interest rates. The US dollar was under pressure, which was positive for copper prices. At the same time, overseas copper mine supply is tight. Zijin's Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo has suspended operations, which may affect production. The first - round long - term TC quote for mines and smelters in the middle of the year is - 15 US dollars/ton, increasing the long - term production reduction pressure on smelters. Technically, Shanghai copper is in an upward trend with the momentum to continue rising. On the supply side, although the supply in Shanghai has decreased slightly today, there will still be inventory in the future, and imported supplies will arrive tomorrow. On the demand side, downstream consumption was light on the first day after the holiday, and the purchasing sentiment declined. As the price fell, the downstream's bargaining psychology was obvious. Overall, Shanghai copper may maintain an oscillating pattern under the interweaving of multiple and short factors. If it can effectively break through the previous high pressure level of 78,650 yuan/ton, it may open up further room for rebound; if not, it may face a callback risk under the pressure of increased supply and weak demand [8] Iron Ore - On June 4, the main contract 2509 of iron ore oscillated and rose, with a 1.37% increase, closing at 704.5 yuan. The overseas shipment volume and domestic arrival volume of iron ore in this period have both rebounded. Affected by the off - season of terminal demand and the decline in blast furnace profits, iron water production has decreased for three consecutive periods, and demand may further decline. Iron ore is expected to show an oscillating trend in the short term [8] Asphalt - On June 4, the main contract 2507 of asphalt oscillated and closed down, with a 0.45% decrease, closing at 3506 yuan. The planned asphalt production volume of domestic refineries in June is expected to increase year - on - year. The rainy weather in the south has suppressed demand. Under the pressure of supply and demand, the fundamentals lack driving force, and asphalt is expected to show an oscillating trend [9] Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,285 yuan/ton. According to the China Cotton Information Network on June 6, the lowest basis quotation of the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse in the National Cotton Trading Market was 410 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 85 lots compared with the previous trading day [9] Logs - On Wednesday, the 2507 contract of logs opened at 766, with a minimum of 752.5, a maximum of 768, and closed at 758.5, with a daily reduction of 892 lots. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price at 750 - 770 and the pressure at 790. Supported by the spot market, the futures price rebounded. As the market enters June, attention should be paid to information on delivery. On June 4, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. The inventory of logs at ports has increased slightly, and overall demand is still weak. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. The market has entered the off - season, and spot transactions are weak. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of spot prices, import data, downstream purchasing, and the willingness of traders to support prices [9][11] Steel - On June 4, rb2510 closed at 2974 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3097 yuan/ton. Coke and coking coal led the black series to rise, and the repair of steel mill profits drove the expectation of replenishment. Although the data on May 29 showed that the average daily iron water production of 247 steel mills decreased month - on - month, the profitability of steel mills continued to improve. After the announcement of the increase in steel tariffs, the market's concerns have been partially released, and the prices of terminal finished products have stabilized and rebounded, further strengthening the rigid procurement demand of steel mills for coke and feeding back to the finished product end, leading to an increase [11] Alumina - On June 4, ao2509 closed at 3063 yuan/ton. The long - term production reduction capacity remains, and the incremental output from partial resumption of production and new production capacity is currently mainly used to supplement long - term contracts or directly flow to metallurgical or non - metallurgical terminals. It is difficult to form a quantitative accumulation in the spot circulation supply end, and the spot market price remains stable at a high level. Currently, in terms of trading, both supply and demand sides are in a relatively balanced state of price negotiation. In the future, attention should be paid to the operating behavior of traders based，on their predictions. Fundamentally, the supply is in a process of steady increase, and attention should be paid to potential sudden policies or events [12] Shanghai Aluminium - On June 4, al2507 closed at 20,075 yuan/ton. Affected by the US upgrade of steel and aluminum tariffs and the slight accumulation of aluminum ingot inventory after the holiday, the aluminum price declined. However, the relatively small arrival of aluminum ingots and the partial offset of the off - season demand by short - term terminal export rush will make the inventory pressure of aluminum ingots not obvious, so the low inventory will still support the price [12] Lithium Carbonate - The index price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,417 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton from the previous working day; battery - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 59,300 - 61,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 60,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 58,150 - 59,150 yuan/ton, with an average price of 58,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The center of the spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continues to move down. From the demand side, the increase in production scheduling in June is extremely limited, and downstream material factories generally pick up goods in the form of long - term contracts and customer - supplied materials. On the upstream supply side, the slight rebound in the previous futures price has provided an opportunity for some non - integrated lithium salt factories to hedge and resume production, and there is an expectation of an increase in market supply. At the same time, with the continuous decline in lithium ore prices, the cost support is gradually weakening, which further suppresses the price of lithium carbonate. Overall, in the context of oversupply, the lithium carbonate market will still operate weakly in the short term, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure [12][13][14]

Variety Views - On June 3, A-shares' three major indices rose slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.43% to 3361.98, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.16% to 10057.17, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.48% to 2002.70. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1141.4 billion yuan, 2.2 billion yuan more than last Friday [1] - The CSI 300 index strengthened on June 3, closing at 3852.01, up 11.78 [1] - On June 3, the weighted coke index remained weak, closing at 1300.3 yuan, down 14.3 [2] - On June 3, the weighted coking coal index was weak, closing at 721.3 yuan, down 22.1 [3] - Affected by the earlier rainy season improving sugar production prospects in major Asian producers, US sugar fell on Monday. Constrained by the decline in US sugar and the reduction in spot quotes, the short sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract, which fell on Tuesday and slightly at night [4] - Due to the technical influence on the short - term decline, Shanghai rubber consolidated on Tuesday and continued to fluctuate at night [5] - On June 3, palm oil continued its recent rebound, hitting a new high in recent weeks before pulling back. The main contract P2509 closed with an upper - shadow阳线, closing at 8196, up 1.69% [5] - As of May 30, 2025 (week 22), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 364,000 tons, up 25,300 tons from last week, a 7.47% increase; down 19,500 tons from 383,500 tons last year, a 5.08% decrease. It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31, 2025 were 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from the previous month [7] - On June 3, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher due to the boost from crude oil prices. As of June 1, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 67%, lower than the expected 68%; the planting rate was 84%, lower than the expected 86%. In the domestic market, on June 3, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated weakly. The main contract M2509 closed at 2935 yuan/ton, a 1.11% decrease [7] - On June 3, the live hog futures price fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2509 closing at 13,605 yuan/ton, a 0.7% decrease [8] - On June 3, the iron ore 2509 main contract fell 1.14%, closing at 695.5 yuan [8] - On June 3, the asphalt 2507 main contract rose 1.22%, closing at 3482 yuan [8] - Copper prices maintained a relatively strong and volatile pattern. There were new disruptions in the mining end, and domestic smelting output continued to exceed expectations, but raw material supply was expected to decline. In June, consumption was expected to be slightly weaker, and the domestic market was expected to be in a tight balance or a slight inventory build - up [9] - The log 2507 contract opened at 765 on Monday, with a low of 759.5, a high of 770, and closed at 765, with an increase of 596 positions. The spot price was supported at 750 - 770 and faced resistance at 790 [9] - On June 3, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, the 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs were 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged [9] - On Tuesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,240 yuan/ton. As of June 5, the minimum basis quote at Xinjiang's designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was 410 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 40 lots [11] - On June 3, rb2510 closed at 2928 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3052 yuan/ton. Market transactions remained at a low level, and prices were generally stable with some weakening [11] - On June 3, ao2509 closed at 2998 yuan/ton. The impact of Guinea's revocation of some mining licenses has basically ended, and the future supply is expected to be in surplus [12] - On June 3, al2507 closed at 19,860 yuan/ton. The inventory in the East China market increased slightly after the holiday, and the market supply became more abundant [12] Influencing Factors - For coke, the loss of coke enterprises slightly expanded, and the daily output decreased. The demand also decreased, and the second - round price cut in the spot market was implemented [4] - For coking coal, some mines in major production areas limited production, but the overall supply remained stable and abundant. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased, and the inventory in the supervision area increased [4] - The ANRPC April 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in April would decrease by 1.4% to 767,000 tons, and consumption would decrease by 1.3% to 1.248 million tons. The market decline was due to increased tapping and weak tire demand [5] - For soybean meal, as the arrival of soybeans increased, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal rose. The short - term demand from feed enterprises was limited [7] - For live hogs, consumer demand was weak, and the supply was expected to increase in June, but the early - month slaughter decreased slightly [8] - For iron ore, in June, the supply was expected to increase as overseas mines rushed for quarterly output, while the terminal demand entered the off - season, and the pig iron output declined for three consecutive weeks [8] - For asphalt, the planned production in June increased significantly, but the demand was suppressed by the rainy season and was supported by the crude oil cost [8] - For copper, there were disruptions in the mining end, and domestic consumption was expected to be slightly weaker in June. The social inventory increased slightly during the holiday [9] - For logs, the port inventory increased slightly, the overall demand was weak, and the market entered the off - season [9] - For cotton, the US cotton sowing progress was slow, and the domestic cotton inventory decreased slightly [11] - For steel, market transactions were weak, and demand was expected to decline seasonally with the influence of the rainy season [11] - For alumina, the impact of mining license revocation ended, and the复产 of suspended enterprises led to concerns about future supply surplus [12] - For aluminum, the inventory in the East China market increased after the holiday, and the market supply became more abundant [12]

1. Market Performance Summary - On May 30, A-share three major indices collectively pulled back, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.47% to 3347.49 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.85% to 10040.63 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.96% to 1993.19 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1139.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and sorted out on May 30, closing at 3840.23, down 18.47 from the previous day [1]. - The coke weighted index was weak on May 30, closing at 1309.3 yuan, down 28.1 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index remained weak, closing at 728.3 yuan, down 39.5 from the previous day [1]. 2. Product - Specific Analysis Futures Index - The A - share market showed a collective decline on May 30, with reduced trading volume [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: Coke enterprises suffered small losses, with short - term supply remaining stable. Steel mills had a driving force to reduce production in the off - season, leading to a decline in real demand for coke. Coke enterprises saw inventory accumulation, and the second round of price cuts was implemented [1]. - Coking coal: Some domestic mines in the main production areas limited production, and the import inventory at the China - Mongolia border accumulated again. The real demand for coking coal declined as the blast furnace hot metal output peaked and declined [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar (Zheng Sugar) - Affected by factors such as the year - on - year decline in sugar production in the first half of May in Brazil's central - southern region and the rise in crude oil prices, the US sugar fluctuated slightly higher during the holiday. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of May was 2408000 tons, a 6.8% decline from the same period last year [2]. Rubber - The rubber - tapping season in Cote d'Ivoire, Vietnam, and Thailand led to an increase in spot supply. Uncertainty in US tariff and trade policies and weak US economic data affected market sentiment, causing the Japanese rubber futures price and Southeast Asian spot quotes to decline during the holiday [3]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market rose continuously last week, but gave back some gains on the Friday night session. The increase in production in May in Malaysia narrowed, the increase in exports expanded, and the inventory pressure eased. The domestic palm oil market had weak supply and demand, and the origin palm oil was still the key factor [3][4][5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybean futures were weak on June 2. Ample Brazilian soybean supply suppressed prices. Domestically, with the increase in soybean arrivals, the soybean inventory continued to rise, and the soybean meal inventory was expected to increase. The short - term demand for soybean meal increased limitedly [4][5]. Live Pigs - On May 30, the live pig futures price fluctuated. The breeding end's slaughter rhythm changed, and the overall market was in a pattern of loose supply. Short - term attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter rhythm [6]. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper was in a situation of long - short entanglement. The supply side had a tight expectation, while the demand side entered the off - season, but some terminal demands showed good performance [6]. Iron Ore - On May 30, the iron ore 2509 main contract closed down. Overseas shipments decreased, and the port inventory continued to decline. The iron ore market showed a volatile trend in the short term [6]. Asphalt - On May 30, the asphalt 2507 main contract oscillated and declined. The capacity utilization rate and shipment volume decreased, and the market was in a pattern of weak supply and demand, showing a volatile trend in the short term [7]. Cotton - Last week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13275 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and the growth of cotton seedlings in Xinjiang was generally good, but there were some problems in some areas [7]. Logs - The 2507 log contract showed certain characteristics on May 30. The spot price had some support, and the futures price rebounded. The market entered the off - season, with weak demand and little change in the supply - demand relationship [7][9]. Steel - The US export tax ruling event reversed again, and the market sentiment was affected. The short - term possibility of steel mill production reduction was low, and the terminal demand was limited. The overall market was considered weak [9]. Alumina - Guinea revoked the exploration licenses of some mining companies, affecting the supply of bauxite. The domestic demand for alumina remained relatively stable, and the fundamentals were in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum was relatively stable, and the demand decreased slightly as the market transitioned from the peak consumption season to the off - season [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate continued to decline. The cost support weakened, and the supply - demand surplus pattern was difficult to improve, putting downward pressure on the price [11].

Variety Views - On May 29, A-share's three major indexes rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% to close at 3363.45 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.24% to close at 10127.20 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.37% to close at 2012.55 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1185.4 billion yuan, an increase of 175.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index trended stronger on May 29, closing at 3858.70, a rise of 22.46 [1] - On May 29, the weighted index of coke was weak, closing at 1332.9 yuan, a decrease of 22.2 compared to the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal was also weak, closing at 760.5 yuan, a decrease of 30.9 [1] Factors Affecting Futures Prices - For coke, the second round of price cuts has officially started. In the short term, coking coal continues to offer concessions, and coke enterprises have a weak drive to cut production. Steel mills' profitability rate continues to expand, and the inflection point of molten iron production cut may have appeared. Considering the current good profits of steel mills, the decline space of molten iron is limited, and steel mills have a rigid demand for coke procurement. However, the cost support of coke has loosened, and it is difficult for coke prices to stabilize [2] - For coking coal, the sales of coking coal are not smooth, and there is a phenomenon of full warehouses. Some mines have taken production cut actions, but large-scale production cuts have not occurred yet. The profits of downstream coking enterprises are damaged, and the willingness to replenish raw material inventory is poor. This week, the molten iron production has significantly declined, and the short-term demand for coking coal has weakened. The inventory pressure at the mine level is relatively large. In terms of imports, the number of customs clearance vehicles at the port remains high, and the inventory in the supervision area is piling up [2] - For Zhengzhou sugar, the global weather is conducive to production recovery. The dry weather in Brazil is conducive to accelerating the harvest speed, while the wet weather in India and Thailand is helpful for the growth of sugarcane crops. Affected by the expectation of improved global production prospects, the US sugar oscillated and declined on Wednesday. Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the downward adjustment of spot quotations, the Zhengzhou sugar contract 2509 oscillated downward on Thursday [2] - For rubber, due to the large short-term decline, affected by technical factors, Shanghai rubber stopped falling and rebounded on Thursday. The 20 rubber performed stronger than natural rubber due to the decrease in the inventory of the futures exchange. Affected by short sellers, Shanghai rubber oscillated and slightly declined at night. In the first four months of 2025, the total export volume of Thai natural rubber and mixed rubber was 1.573 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, while that of Vietnam was 450,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9% [2] Palm Oil - On May 29, palm oil continued its recent rebound, strongly surging to a high in recent weeks. The main contract P2509 closed with a positive K-line. The highest price of the day was 8198, the lowest was 8062, and the closing price was 8190, a rise of 1.41% compared to the previous day. It is expected that the palm oil production in Malaysia in May will still be at a high level. From May 1 - 25, the palm oil production in southern Malaysia increased by 0.7% month-on-month, and the average month-on-month increase in the same period in the past five years was 8.6%. It is expected that the production in May will increase by about 2% month-on-month. In terms of exports, shipping agency data shows that from May 1 - 25, the export volume of palm oil increased by 7 - 11% month-on-month, and the average month-on-month increase in the same period in the past five years was 9.0%. It is expected that the export of Malaysian palm oil in May will increase by about 10% month-on-month. Overall, it is expected that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of May will continue to rise, possibly around 2 million tons [3][5] Soybean Meal - In the international market, on May 29, CBOT soybean futures trended weakly. Agricultural consulting firm Datagro raised the soybean production in Brazil for the 2024/2025 season from 171.2 million tons to 172 million tons. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimated that the soybean export volume in Brazil in May will reach 14.03 million tons, lower than the previous estimate of 14.52 million tons. The Buenos Aires and Rosario Grain Exchanges said that the expected dry and cold weather in the next few days will help Argentine farmers harvest soybeans. In the domestic market, on May 28, the soybean meal futures price oscillated. The main contract M2509 closed at 2954 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.27%. As the arrival volume of soybeans increases, the soybean inventory continues to rise, and the operating rate of oil mills nationwide has increased significantly. With sufficient soybean supply in the second quarter, the soybean meal inventory tends to rebound. Downstream feed enterprises have completed short-term inventory replenishment, and the short-term increase in soybean meal demand is limited. Overall, the soybean meal market is under the expectation of loose supply, and the upward space of prices is limited. Short-term focus should be on the arrival volume of soybeans [6] Live Pigs - On May 29, the live pig futures price oscillated and rebounded. The main contract 2509 closed at 13640 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.59%. Currently, the overall consumer demand is weak. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, slaughterhouses have inventory procurement needs. However, with the significant increase in domestic temperature and the adjustment of residents' diet structure, there are many alternative consumption options, and the sales of fresh pork are poor. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has changed. Group pig enterprises have completed their slaughter plans well, and the slaughter pressure at the end of the month has been alleviated. After the continuous decline of medium and large pigs, many large-scale pig enterprises have taken price stabilization measures, and the willingness to sell has slightly decreased. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows is still higher than the normal level and the production efficiency has improved. The market is generally in a pattern of loose supply. Short-term focus should be on the change in the slaughter rhythm of live pigs [7] Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper continued to oscillate strongly, but the fluctuation was limited. Fundamentally, the LME copper inventory decreased on a single day, and the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained at a low level. The global visible inventory is at the 25% quantile level of the same period in history, providing support for prices. However, the demand expectation is weak, and there are still macro uncertainties, making it difficult to provide more upward momentum. The narrow - range oscillation state of Shanghai copper continues [7] Iron Ore - On May 29, the main contract 2509 of iron ore oscillated and rose, with a rise of 1.29% and a closing price of 707 yuan. The overseas shipment of iron ore in this period has declined, the arrival volume has increased slightly month-on-month, and the port inventory has continued to decrease. The terminal demand has entered the off - season, and the molten iron production has declined for two consecutive periods at a high level. Iron ore shows an oscillating trend in the short term [7] Asphalt - On May 29, the main contract 2507 of asphalt oscillated and closed up, with a rise of 0.51% and a closing price of 3514 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt in this period continued to decline month-on-month, and the shipment volume decreased month-on-month. With the arrival of the rainy season in the southern region, the terminal demand may be suppressed. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. Asphalt shows an oscillating trend in the short term [8] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13260 yuan/ton. According to the China Cotton Information Network on May 30, at the designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in Xinjiang of the National Cotton Trading Market, the lowest basis quotation was 390 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 52 lots compared to the previous trading day. The cotton planting in the United States is progressing slowly due to the drought [8] Logs - On May 29, the 2507 log contract opened at 760, with the lowest price of 756, the highest price of 769, and closed at 766, with a daily position reduction of 1036 lots. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price at 750 - 770 and the resistance at 790. There is certain support at the spot end, and the futures price rebounded. On May 29, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. The port log inventory has slightly increased, and the overall demand is still weak. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. The market has entered the off - season, and the spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the spot price, import data, the inventory procurement of downstream enterprises, and the price - holding willingness of traders [10] Steel - On May 29, rb2510 closed at 2978 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3110 yuan/ton. This week, the production of rebar has slightly declined, the inventory has continued to decrease, and the apparent demand has slightly increased. The data is slightly positive. In the short term, although the supply - demand fundamentals have improved this week and the pre - holiday inventory procurement sentiment has increased, the real estate cycle has not yet stabilized, the physical workload of infrastructure investment is relatively lagging, and affected by the rainy season in the south and the seasonal law of outdoor construction, the demand expectation for rebar is weak [10] Alumina - On May 29, ao2509 closed at 2964 yuan/ton. The alumina market showed an oscillating downward trend, and the market performance was weak. There are still differences between the short - term and medium - long - term supply, and there is still strong uncertainty in overseas ore policies, so the price may fluctuate. The incomplete recovery of short - term maintenance capacity and the supply disturbance of bauxite provide some support for alumina, but the upward space is limited [11] Shanghai Aluminum - On May 29, al2507 closed at 20200 yuan/ton. Although the aluminum inventory is at a low level, providing certain support for the aluminum price, due to the lack of more than expected positive factors at the macro level recently, it is difficult to drive the aluminum price to break through further. At the same time, the off - season pressure on the demand side also limits the upward space of the aluminum price to some extent. Therefore, the aluminum price will maintain an oscillating consolidation trend in the short term [11]

Variety Views - On May 28, A-share market's three major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.02% to 3339.93, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.26% to 10003.27, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.31% to 1985.38. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.01 trillion yuan, with a slight increase of 11 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3836.24, down 3.16 [1]. - On May 28, the weighted index of coke was weak, closing at 1339.7 yuan, down 25.8 [2]. - On May 28, the weighted index of coking coal remained weak, closing at 780.0 yuan, down 17.5 [3]. - Affected by concerns about increased exports from India and waiting for sugar production data from Brazil, the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract tumbled on May 28. India's monsoon rainfall in 2025 is expected to be 106% of the long - term average [4]. - With the start of rubber tapping in major producing countries and concerns about tire demand, the spot price in Southeast Asia dropped significantly. The Shanghai rubber futures fell sharply on May 28 [5]. - On May 28, palm oil rebounded slightly within the range and then fell back. The reference price of crude palm oil in Indonesia for June was lowered to $856.38 per ton, and the export tariff was reduced to $52 per ton [7]. - On May 28, CBOT soybean futures were weak. The planting rate of US soybeans as of May 25 was 76%. The domestic soybean meal futures closed up 0.54% to 2966 yuan/ton. The supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose [8]. - On May 28, the hog futures fluctuated at the bottom. The market is in a state of loose supply in the long - term, and the futures price is bearish [9]. - The Shanghai copper futures showed a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply of raw materials is expected to be stable. The price is supported by downstream restocking [10]. - On May 28, the iron ore 2509 contract closed down 0.14% to 698.5 yuan. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and the futures price will fluctuate in the short term [10]. - On May 28, the asphalt 2507 contract closed down 0.91% to 3481 yuan. The supply - demand fundamentals may weaken, and the futures price will fluctuate [11]. - On May 28 night, the Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13245 yuan/ton. The cotton price is at a near - three - year low, and weather changes should be monitored [12]. - On May 28, the log futures opened at 754, closed at 758, and decreased in positions by 1356 lots. The spot market is in the off - season, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction [12]. - On May 28, the rb2510 of steel closed at 2964 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3100 yuan/ton. The black - series market will remain in a "bottom - grinding" pattern [13]. - On May 28, the ao2509 of alumina closed at 2991 yuan/ton. The price is near the cost line, and the upside space is limited [13]. - On May 28, the al2507 of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20095 yuan/ton. The inventory is low, and the price will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [13].