Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed mixed performance on April 30, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.51%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.83%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.1693 trillion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are facing supply - demand imbalances. Coke may face supply pressure, while the coking coal market remains in a loose supply pattern [1]. - The sugar market was affected by various factors during the holiday. The US economic situation and Brazilian sugar production influenced the price of US sugar, which first declined and then stabilized [1]. - The natural rubber market has a slightly positive demand outlook, with production expected to increase by 0.4% and demand by 1.5% in 2025 compared to 2024 [2]. - The soybean meal market may experience weak price fluctuations due to factors such as the increase in Brazilian soybean exports and the decline in the linkage between the domestic and US markets [3]. - The palm oil market in Malaysia is expected to see an increase in inventory in April 2025, with production and exports also increasing [4]. - The copper market has both positive and negative factors. Short - term prices may fluctuate, but the long - term upward trend remains [5]. - The iron ore market is in a state of seasonal supply increase, with short - term price fluctuations [6]. - The asphalt market is expected to show a fluctuating trend with increasing demand [8]. - The alumina market has an increasing supply due to new capacity and production resumption [9]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating price trend due to oversupply [10]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On April 30, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3279.03, down 0.23%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9899.82, up 0.51%; the ChiNext Index closed at 1948.03, up 0.83%. The trading volume was 1.1693 trillion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 3770.57, down 4.51 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On April 30, the coke weighted index closed at 1542.6 yuan, down 13.1; the coking coal weighted index closed at 929.2 yuan, down 1.7. Coke may face supply pressure due to increased production, while the coking coal market remains in a loose supply pattern [1]. Zhengzhou Sugar - During the holiday, US sugar first declined and then stabilized. Brazilian sugar production in the first half of April was 73.1 tons, an increase of 1.25% year - on - year, higher than analysts' expectations. The 5 - month raw sugar contract delivery volume was about 1.48 million tons. The US economy showed signs of contraction [1]. Rubber - During the holiday, Southeast Asian rubber prices fluctuated slightly. OPEC +'s decision to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day since June affected the oil price, which in turn influenced the rubber market. The global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 0.4% and demand by 1.5% in 2025 compared to 2024 [2]. Soybean Meal - During the May Day holiday, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell. Brazilian soybean exports increased, and the domestic soybean meal market may be affected by the arrival of Brazilian soybeans and the weakening linkage with the US market [3]. Palm Oil - During the holiday, the Malaysian palm oil market showed changes. In April 2025, production is expected to increase by 16.9%, exports by 9.7%, and inventory by 14.8% compared to March [4]. Shanghai Copper - During the May Day holiday, the outer - market copper price fluctuated. Positive factors include decreasing domestic copper inventory and uncertain global copper supply. Negative factors include weak US consumer confidence and concerns about future demand [5]. Cotton - During the May Day holiday, the outer - market cotton price rose slightly. Domestic policies to stabilize the economy were introduced, and Xinjiang's cotton sowing was basically completed [5]. Iron Ore - Recently, iron ore shipments have increased seasonally, port inventory has accumulated, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. Asphalt - Recently, asphalt refinery operating rates have increased, and the planned production in May has increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Demand is expected to further improve, and short - term prices will fluctuate [8]. Logs - On April 30, the log futures showed certain price ranges. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. Port inventory decreased, and overall demand was weak [8]. Steel - The rebar market has good fundamentals, with production growth restricted by profits and consumption remaining resilient. The hot - rolled coil market is affected by tariff policies, but the impact may be gradually mitigated [8]. Alumina - The total production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China has reached 109.22 million tons per year, and the operating capacity has increased by 3.48 million tons per year. New capacity and production resumption will increase supply [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - The macro - economic situation is complex, with the US tariff policy being uncertain. The supply side is stable, and the demand side shows regional differences [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has been declining. Due to oversupply and falling ore prices, the price is expected to remain weak and fluctuate in the short term [10].

Report Summary Core Views - On April 29, A-share major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.05% to 3286.65, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.05% to 9849.80, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.13% to 1931.94. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.02 trillion yuan, a decrease of 343 million yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index had a narrow - range consolidation on April 29, closing at 3775.08, down 6.54 from the previous day [1]. Variety - Specific Summaries Stock Index Futures - On April 29, A - share major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all declined slightly, and the trading volume shrank slightly [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On April 29, the coke weighted index was weak and volatile, closing at 1556.4 yuan, down 13.4 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index was also weak, closing at 927.4 yuan, down 18.0 from the previous day [1]. - After the first round of price increase for coke, the coking profit improved, and coking plants increased production actively. The steel mills' profit ratio increased, and the billet export volume increased significantly. The pig iron output increased more than expected this week, and the coke fundamentals improved marginally [1]. - The coking coal mine's operating rate increased month - on - month, the seaborne coal shipment from Reuters was still tight, and the customs clearance at the port decreased due to environmental inspections. The coking profit continued to improve, but the pre - holiday inventory replenishment was over, and coking plants only maintained rigid demand procurement. The upstream coking coal mines had high inventory pressure [1]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The market was concerned about the expiration and delivery of the May contract, and traders expected the delivery volume to be about 2 million tons, strengthening the view of sufficient global supply. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the long - holiday effect, the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract fluctuated downward on Wednesday [1]. Rubber - Affected by the decline in Southeast Asian spot quotes and the long - holiday effect, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly lower on Wednesday. Due to long - position holders closing positions to avoid holiday risks, Shanghai rubber closed slightly lower at night [2]. - Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first quarter were 122.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.6%. Indonesia's total exports in the first two months were 29.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12% [2]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybeans fluctuated and closed lower on Tuesday. The start of US soybeans in 2025 was basically normal. Brazil's soybean harvest was nearly over, and it exported 12.95 billion tons of soybeans in the first four weeks of April, with the daily average export volume increasing by 14% year - on - year. As of April 24, the soybean harvest rate in Argentina was 13%, lagging behind 23% in the same period last year [2]. - Domestically, the soybean meal futures were weak on Tuesday. The main M2509 contract closed at 2964 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.7%. With the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, the market expected a significant increase in the operating rate of oil mills after the holiday, and the soybean meal inventory would turn around. The domestic soybean meal market was in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the price might be weak. Short - term attention should be paid to the arrival volume of soybeans [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - The hog futures price was weak and volatile on Tuesday. The main LH2509 contract closed at 13910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.42%. The slaughter rhythm of the near - end breeding side accelerated, and the market supply of hogs increased. Supported by the May Day holiday, some slaughterhouses increased their pre - holiday inventory, but the market substitutes were sufficient, and the sales of white - striped pigs in many wholesale markets were still difficult. According to the inventory of breeding sows, the theoretical supply capacity of hogs would increase month - on - month in the second quarter, and the market was in a pattern of loose supply. The hog futures might be weak and volatile, and short - term attention should be paid to the price difference between standard and fat hogs and the slaughter situation [3]. Palm Oil - On April 29, palm oil continued to decline. The main contract P2509 closed with a negative K - line, with the highest price of 8208, the lowest price of 8116, and the closing price of 8120, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous day [4]. - The commercial inventory of palm oil was 400,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons week - on - week, an increase of 40,000 tons month - on - month, and a decrease of 70,000 tons year - on - year. The near - month purchase orders increased, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil was still inverted, and the incremental consumption of palm oil did not improve significantly [4]. Shanghai Copper - On April 29, the price of the main Shanghai copper contract fluctuated slightly, and the market was relatively stable. The US tariff policy was still uncertain, and the US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The mine supply was tight, the smelting processing fee decreased, the domestic consumption peak season supported the demand, the inventory trend was downward, but the medium - term demand expectation was cautious. The short - term impact of tariffs eased, but the medium - term uncertainty remained. With the approaching of the holiday, the market sentiment was cautious, and the copper price continued to fluctuate widely [4]. Iron Ore - On April 29, the main iron ore 2509 contract fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.28% and a closing price of 709 yuan. The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased significantly this period, the arrivals also increased, and the port inventory increased. The steel mills' rigid demand for inventory replenishment supported the pig iron output to rise again, but the pig iron output was already at a high level, and the room for further increase was limited. The iron ore showed a volatile trend in the short term [5]. Asphalt - On April 29, the main asphalt 2506 contract fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.53% and a closing price of 3430 yuan. The operating rate of asphalt refineries increased for three consecutive periods, the refinery processing profit was repaired, and the output was expected to increase. The shipment volume increased for two consecutive periods, and the market demand was supported. The asphalt showed a volatile trend in the short term [5]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 12790 yuan/ton. On April 29, the minimum basis price of the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Exchange was 580 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 359 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. Logs - The 2507 log contract opened at 793.5 on Tuesday, with the lowest price of 785, the highest price of 797, and the closing price of 787, and the position decreased by 320 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 780 - 790 and the resistance at 803 [5]. - The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 790 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. The port log inventory decreased month - on - month, the outbound volume increased slightly, the overall demand was still weak, there was no major conflict in the supply - demand relationship, and the market was waiting for the spot price to stabilize. Attention should be paid to the import data, the downstream purchasing, and the price - holding intention of traders [6][8]. Steel - On April 29, rb2510 closed at 3100 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3210 yuan/ton. The terminal demand increased on a low - base basis but was weaker than the same period in previous years, and the apparent demand was lower than expected. In the context of the "Silver April" peak season with lower - than - expected demand and no new policy information, the upward driving force of steel prices was weak. It was expected that steel prices would fluctuate repeatedly in a weak pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback expectation of the black chain [8]. Alumina - On April 29, ao2509 closed at 2766 yuan/ton. The operating situation of alumina enterprises was still changing rapidly. Due to the previous centralized maintenance and production reduction, the market supply pressure was relieved, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly. The alumina had short - term support at the bottom. However, new production capacity was gradually advancing, and overseas alumina production capacity was also ready to be put into operation. There was still high supply pressure in the future, and medium - and long - term negative factors remained [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On April 29, al2506 closed at 19930 yuan/ton. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated in a narrow range. In the past week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continued to decline rapidly, by 30,000 tons and 34,000 tons respectively, and the total inventory was at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The short - term pessimism was repaired, and the strong fundamentals supported the aluminum price to return to around 20,000 yuan. However, to further expand the industry profit of more than 3000 yuan, a stronger supply - demand gap expectation was needed. Under the shadow of the trade war, the off - season demand outlook was not optimistic [9].

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 4 月 29 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一（4 月 28 日）A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.20%，收报 3288.41 点；深 证成指跌 0.62%，收报 9855.20 点；创业板指跌 0.65%，收报 1934.46 点。沪深两市成交额 10564 亿，较上周五 缩量 572 亿。 沪深 300 指数 4 月 28 日窄幅震荡，收盘 3781.62，环比下跌 5.38。 【焦炭 焦煤】4 月 28 日焦炭加权指数区间整理，收盘价 1563.8 元，环比下跌 18.3。 4 月 28 日，焦煤加权指数弱势震荡，收盘价 937.9 元，环比下跌 15.2。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：铁水日产处于高位支撑焦炭入炉刚需，节前下游亦有阶段性补库行为，焦企顺势启动焦炭第二轮 50-55 元/吨提涨，但钢厂存抵触心态，贸易商囤货积极性并未显著回升，且即期焦化利润修复使得焦炉开工得到同步 提振，供应压力随之而来。 焦煤：部分煤矿因工作面更换存在小幅减产情况，但矿端整体生产较为平稳，原煤库存依然处于高位，坑口 贸易表现平 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周五（4 月 25 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.07%，收报 3295.06 点；深 证成指涨 0.39%，收报 9917.06 点；创业板指涨 0.59%，收报 1947.19 点。沪深两市成交额达到 11136 亿，较昨 日微幅放量 45 亿。 沪深 300 指数 4 月 25 日窄幅整理，收盘 3786.99，环比上涨 2.64。 【焦炭 焦煤】4 月 25 日焦炭加权指数区间震荡，收盘价 1566.4 元，环比下跌 21.0。 4 月 25 日，焦煤加权指数弱势整理，收盘价 946.0 元，环比上涨 1.7。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：假期将近，下游需求好转，钢材需求尚可，成交好转，短期价格有支撑，目前铁水超预期回升，钢厂 开工率较好。焦炭市场暂稳运行，焦企出货较顺畅。部分钢厂采购积极性较强，多数钢厂按需采购为主。焦炭第 一轮提涨全面落地，提涨幅度 50-55 元/吨，一轮提涨落地后焦企利润好转，焦企整体开工较稳。 焦煤：部分煤矿完成月度任务有减产行为，煤矿 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 4 月 25 日 星期五 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（4 月 24 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.03%，收报 3297.29 点；深 证成指跌 0.58%，收报 9878.32 点；创业板指跌 0.68%，收报 1935.86 点。沪深两市成交额 11090 亿，较昨日缩 量 1207 亿。 沪深 300 指数 4 月 24 日窄幅震荡，收盘 3784.36，环比下跌 2.52。 【焦炭 焦煤】4 月 24 日焦炭加权指数区间整理，收盘价 1591.1 元，环比上涨 24.1。 4 月 24 日，焦煤加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 945.2 元，环比上涨 11.3。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 客服产品系列•日评 【豆粕】国际市场，周四 CBOT 大豆期货上涨，7 月合约触及近两个月来的最高水平。美国释放对华降低关 税信号，全球金融市场对经济衰退的担忧情绪缓解。美国农业部发布的周度作物生长报告显示，截至 4 月 20 日 当周，美国大豆种植率为 8%，高于市场预期的 7%，五年均值为 5%。美国农业部周四公布的出口销售报告显 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 4 月 24 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（4 月 23 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.10%，收报 3296.36 点；深 证成指涨 0.67%，收报 9935.80 点；创业板指涨 1.07%，收报 1949.16 点。沪深两市成交额达到 1.23 万亿，较昨 日放量近 1400 亿。 沪深 300 指数 4 月 23 日窄幅整理，收盘 3786.88，环比上涨 2.93。 【焦炭 焦煤】4 月 23 日焦炭加权指数超跌反弹，收盘价 1594.2 元，环比上涨 45.2。 4 月 23 日，焦煤加权指数弱势震荡，收盘价 948.1 元，环比上涨 26.3。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦炭首轮提涨落地，亏损有所收窄，近期环保限产约束相对宽松，焦企暂无减产驱动，焦炭日均产量 周环比持续小幅增加，供应稳中有增。需求方面，高炉稳定开工，上周样本钢厂铁水产量周环比微降，绝对水平 在年内高位。下游日耗有支撑，焦企正常出货。 焦煤：上周产区部分煤矿停产，其余大部分煤矿维持正常生产，国内整体煤炭供应平稳。进口方面，蒙 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 4 月 23 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二（4 月 22 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指日线"八连阳"。截至收盘，沪指涨 0.25%， 收报 3299.76 点；深证成指跌 0.36%，收报 9870.05 点；创业板指跌 0.82%，收报 1928.43 点。沪深两市成交额 达到 1.09 万亿，较昨日放量 486 亿。 沪深 300 指数 4 月 22 日窄幅震荡，收盘 3783.95，环比下跌 0.93。 【焦炭 焦煤】4 月 22 日焦炭加权指数震荡趋弱，收盘价 1533.2 元，环比下跌 27.6。 4 月 22 日，焦煤加权指数弱势，收盘价 913.4 元，环比下跌 20.3。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：虽然第一轮提涨落地，但随着下游钢厂铁水回落和利润走缩，钢厂采购意愿下降，后续市场的第二轮 提涨预期实现或将较为困难，并且原料端焦煤走弱压力带动焦炭成本松动，焦炭下行压力较大。焦厂和钢厂焦炭 库存均维持去库。铁水产量从 240.22 顶点轻微回落 0.1 至 240.12，后续铁水继续回落预期较强，对需求的支撑 ...

品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一（4 月 21 日）A 股三大指数延续反弹态势，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.45%，收报 3291.43 点； 深证成指涨 1.27%，收报 9905.53 点；创业板指涨 1.59%，收报 1944.32 点。沪深两市成交 10414 亿，较上周五 放量 1267 亿。 沪深 300 指数 4 月 21 日震荡趋强，收盘 3784.88，环比上涨 12.36。 客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 4 月 22 日 星期二 【焦炭 焦煤】4 月 21 日焦炭加权指数区间震荡，收盘价 1574.1 元，环比上涨 23.2。 4 月 21 日，焦煤加权指数弱势整理，收盘价 936.4 元，环比上涨 10.9。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：中美贸易矛盾进一步升级，加深市场对黑色商品长期需求困扰，下游采购情绪降温。焦炭第一轮提涨 全面落地，提涨幅度 50-55 元/吨，一轮提涨落地后焦企利润好转，焦企整体开工较稳。 焦煤：煤矿线上竞拍成交走弱，整体煤价窄幅震荡。本周个别煤矿停产限产，但部分因前期事故等因素减产 停产煤矿恢复正常生产，总体产地供应有所增加。受关税 ...

品种观点： 【股指期货】 周五（4 月 18 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指止步八连涨。截止收盘，沪指跌 0.11%，收 报 3276.73 点；深证成指涨 0.23%，收报 9781.65 点；创业板指涨 0.27%，收报 1913.97 点。沪深两市成交额仅 有 9147 亿元，较昨日缩量 848 亿，创去年"924"行情以来地量。 客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 4 月 21 日 星期一 沪深 300 指数 4 月 18 日窄幅震荡，收盘 3772.52，环比上涨 0.30。 【焦炭 焦煤】4 月 18 日焦炭加权指数弱势整理，收盘价 1555.1 元，环比下跌 12.0。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：吨焦利润收缩，焦企开工率和产能利用率均小幅下降。需求上，下游钢厂补库需求趋缓，采购积极性 有所下降，但铁水产量维稳提供焦炭需求支撑。终端需求成色仍然是基本面调整的核心，焦炭供需基本面有所改 善。 焦煤：供应上，中蒙边境口岸的焦煤供应环比季节性上升，但口岸贸易商出货量不佳，蒙煤口岸库存仍较高。 进口澳煤的性价比减弱，澳煤进口量有所回落。国内产地煤矿陆续复工复产，110 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 4 月 18 日 星期五 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（4 月 17 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指日线八连涨。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.13%，收 报 3280.34 点；深证成指跌 0.16%，收报 9759.05 点；创业板指涨 0.09%，收报 1908.78 点。沪深两市成交额仅 有 9995 亿，较昨日缩量 1124 亿。 沪深 300 指数 4 月 17 日强势整理，收盘 3772.22，环比下跌 0.6。 【焦炭 焦煤】4 月 17 日焦炭加权指数弱势，收盘价 1549.0 元，环比下跌 22.0。 4 月 17 日，焦煤加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 926.7 元，环比下跌 25.4。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：现货方面，港口焦炭现货市场报价平稳，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1340 元/吨，较上期价格不变。 供应端，焦企开工保持正常水平，焦炭产量供应稳定，铁水产量回升钢厂对焦炭需求增加，焦企出货相对顺畅， 厂内库存压力缓解。需求端，高炉复产铁水产量增加，因而对焦炭需求增加，不过钢材价格整体疲软，终端需求 释放不及预期。 焦 ...