Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of the black chain has switched to a dual - wheel drive of industrial bullish factors and valuation repair, and the prices of coke and coking coal are in a low - valuation repair market [3] - The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract was affected by multiple factors and showed different trends during the day and at night [3] - The price of Shanghai rubber was affected by inventory and weather, showing a downward trend during the day and an upward trend at night [3] - The price of palm oil continued to rise on July 14 but did not break through the previous high [4][5] - The price of soybean meal in the international market fell slightly, while the domestic market rose, and the supply pressure on the spot side increased [6] - The price of live pigs fell, with short - term supply pressure and lack of upward driving force [7] - The price of Shanghai copper was under pressure, and it was difficult to judge whether it had ended the correction [7] - The price of cotton decreased in inventory, and the base - price quotation was at a minimum of 430 yuan/ton [7] - The price of logs was concerned about the 790 - 800 pressure range, and the spot price was stable [8] - The price of steel was expected to be strong in the short term due to macro - favorable news [8] - The price of alumina was supported in the short term but faced supply - surplus pressure in the long term [9] - The price of Shanghai aluminum fell, with slow inventory reduction and weak spot recovery [9] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 14, the three major A - share indexes showed different trends. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% to 3519.65 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11% to 10684.52 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.45% to 2197.07 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1458.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 253.4 billion yuan from last Friday. The CSI 300 index closed at 4017.67, a rise of 2.86 [1] Coke and Coking Coal - On July 14, the coke weighted index closed at 1532.2, a rise of 18.9; the coking coal weighted index closed at 933.6 yuan, a rise of 14.5. The demand support for both decreased slightly, and there was still pressure on inventory accumulation [1][2][3] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, US sugar rose on Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract rose slightly during the day on July 14 but fell at night due to factors such as the possible shift of India's ethanol quota to grains [3] Shanghai Rubber - Affected by the increase in rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the continuous increase in the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port, the Shanghai rubber fell on July 14 but rose at night due to concerns about Thailand's weather. As of July 13, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 636,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 million tons [3] Palm Oil - On July 14, palm oil continued to rise but did not break through the previous high. From July 1 - 10 in Malaysia, the palm oil yield increased by 35.43%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and the output increased by 35.28%. In June in India, the import volume of palm oil increased by 60%, and the total import volume of vegetable oil increased by 30.6% [4][5] Soybean Meal - In the international market, the price of CBOT soybeans fell slightly on July 14. In the domestic market, the main soybean meal M2509 contract rose 0.54% to 2992 yuan/ton. In June, China's soybean imports decreased by 11.9% compared with May. The supply pressure on the spot side increased, but there was a large order gap for imported soybeans after September [6] Live Pigs - On July 14, the main live pig LH2509 contract fell 0.42% to 14285 yuan/ton. The terminal market was in the off - season, and there was supply pressure in the short term [7] Shanghai Copper - Affected by US tariff policies, Shanghai copper was under pressure. The domestic copper concentrate spot processing fee showed a stable trend, but the mine - end tension continued [7] Cotton - On the night of July 14, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13805 yuan/ton. The base - price quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was at a minimum of 430 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased by 43 lots [7] Logs - On July 14, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 787.5, closed at 788, and increased positions by 470 lots. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [8] Steel - On July 14, the rb2510 contract of steel closed at 3138 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3276 yuan/ton. Due to macro - favorable news, the price was expected to be strong in the short term [8] Alumina - On July 14, the ao2509 contract of alumina closed at 3145 yuan/ton. It was supported in the short term but faced supply - surplus pressure in the long term [9] Shanghai Aluminum - On July 14, the al2508 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20415 yuan/ton. The inventory reduction slowed down, and the spot recovery was weak [9]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 11, 2025 - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to 3510.18, with an intraday increase of 1.3%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.61% to 10696.10, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.80% to 2207.10. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1712.1 billion yuan, an increase of 218 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **CSI 300 Index**: It closed at 4014.81, up 4.78 [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1. Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The weighted index of coking coal closed at 922.8 yuan, up 27.7. The price of main - coking coal in Lvliang area increased by 50 yuan to 1100 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was strong, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port rising by 3 to 754 yuan/ton and Mongolian No. 3 clean coal rising by 3 to 843 yuan/ton. Mines are gradually resuming production, and upstream inventory pressure is decreasing [3][4][5]. - **Coke**: The weighted index of coke closed at 1524.1, up 41.5. The spot price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port increased by 30 yuan to 1260 yuan/ton. Some coking enterprises plan to raise prices for the first time due to production losses and price rebounds in black varieties [3][5]. 2.2. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, US sugar rose on Friday. Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rose slightly overnight. Brazil's expected sugarcane planting area in 2025 is 9.168506 million hectares, a 0.6% decrease from the previous month's forecast and a 0.2% decrease from the previous year. The production is estimated to be 692.988023 million tons, a 0.1% decrease from the previous month's forecast and a 1.9% decrease from the previous year [5]. 2.3. Rubber - Due to the increase in the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, long - positions were liquidated, causing the Shanghai rubber to fall overnight. As of July 11, the inventory of natural rubber was 213,589 tons, up 817 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 188,690 tons, down 160 tons. The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 40,422 tons, up 4,638 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 36,994 tons, up 7,258 tons [6]. 2.4. Soybean Meal - **International Market**: On July 11, the CBOT soybean futures price fell slightly. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the US soybean harvest to 4.335 billion bushels, with an average yield of 52.5 bushels per acre, lower than the 4.34 billion bushels in June. Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 11.93 million tons, a 24% increase year - on - year [7][8][9]. - **Domestic Market**: On July 11, the main soybean meal contract M2509 closed at 2976 yuan/ton, up 0.74%. Domestic oil mills have sufficient soybean supply, high operating rates, and large soybean meal production. Feed and breeding enterprises have certain inventories and mainly adopt a wait - and - see attitude. After September, there is a large gap in imported soybean orders, providing support for the forward market [9]. 2.5. Live Pigs - On July 11, the main live pig contract LH2509 closed at 14,345 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has recovered, and the overall slaughter rhythm has accelerated. The terminal market is in the off - season, and the demand is insufficient, so the pork price lacks support. In the medium and long term, there is still supply pressure [10]. 2.6. Shanghai Copper - Affected by the expected 50% tariff on Canadian copper products by the US, market speculation is suppressed. The supply side shows an increasing trend, the demand side is weak, and the global exchange inventory is increasing, putting pressure on prices. The copper price is in a balanced state between macro - negative and industry - positive factors and will likely maintain a volatile pattern [11]. 2.7. Cotton - On Friday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13,905 yuan/ton. As of July 14, the basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was at least 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 32 lots compared with the previous day [11]. 2.8. Logs - The 2509 log contract opened at 787, with a low of 784.5, a high of 794, and closed at 786, with a reduction of 387 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The port log inventory increased slightly, demand was weak, and the supply - demand relationship was stable. Attention should be paid to spot prices and import data [12]. 2.9. Steel - Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the black sector has risen recently, and steel prices have maintained a volatile and strong trend. However, as the basis converges and some areas start production restrictions, there is still pressure on black sector prices in the future. Steel prices will likely maintain a high - level volatile pattern in the short term [12]. 2.10. Alumina - Guinea has entered the rainy season, and the ore shipment volume has decreased significantly this week. The supply side of alumina has both production cuts and restarts. In the long term, there is an expectation of supply surplus, but in the short term, the low inventory of futures and the shortage of deliverable resources may drive prices up [12][13]. 2.11. Shanghai Aluminum - The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable, the proportion of molten aluminum is high, and the ingot casting volume is tight. The low - inventory pattern supports aluminum prices, and the sustainability of inventory accumulation needs to be observed [13].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - On July 10, 2025, the A-share market showed an overall upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3500-point mark. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1494.2 billion yuan, slightly down by 1.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The prices of various futures varieties also showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather [1]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 10, the A-share market had a collective rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to close at 3509.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.47% to 10631.13 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.22% to 2189.58 points. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4010.02, up 18.62 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 10, the weighted index of coke was strong, closing at 1501.6, up 50.0. The weighted index of coking coal remained strong, closing at 908.1 yuan, up 34.7. The spot price of port coke increased, and the production profit of coking enterprises was poor, leading to reduced production and inventory reduction. The price of coking coal in some areas increased, and coal mines gradually resumed production, with reduced inventory pressure [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected decline in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of June, the US sugar price rose on Wednesday. Supported by the increase in US sugar price and spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rose on Thursday and adjusted at night. The Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association expects a significant increase in sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season [4]. Rubber - Due to heavy rainfall in Thailand affecting rubber tapping, the supply of raw materials decreased, and the spot price in Southeast Asia continued to rise. The Shanghai Rubber futures rose on Thursday and adjusted slightly at night. The operating rates of tire factories showed slight differences this week [5]. Soybean Meal - On July 10, the CBOT soybean futures rebounded. The US soybean export sales increased, but the high - quality rate and good weather reduced the risk of soybean production reduction. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans in oil mills was sufficient, and the inventory of soybean meal was increasing. There is a large gap in imported soybean orders after September [6]. Live Pigs - On July 10, the main contract of live pigs (LH2509) rose 0.77% to 14375 yuan/ton. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end accelerated, but the terminal market was in the off - season, and there was supply pressure in the medium and long term [7]. Palm Oil - On July 10, palm oil had a slight shock adjustment after encountering resistance in the recent rise. The MPOB data showed that the production, export, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in June had different changes, with the overall data being slightly bearish [8]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai Copper showed a weak trend, with complex supply - demand situations due to the expected increase in global copper mine production and possible decline in US downstream demand. Attention should be paid to LME inventory changes and macro - policy dynamics [9]. Cotton - On the night of July 10, the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 13875 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased by 50 lots compared to the previous day [9]. Logs - On July 10, the main contract of logs (2509) showed a certain trend, and the spot price in Shandong decreased. The port log inventory increased slightly, and the demand was weak [9][10]. Steel - On July 10, the rb2510 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3262 yuan/ton. The price increase was due to positive sentiment and the release of speculative demand in the spot market. The overall production and demand of the five major steel products decreased, and there was no significant supply - demand contradiction [11][13]. Alumina - On July 10, the ao2509 contract closed at 3208 yuan/ton. Although there is an expected supply surplus, it may maintain a relatively strong trend in the short term due to news and the risk of short - squeezing [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 10, the al2508 contract closed at 20700 yuan/ton. The supply of electrolytic aluminum was close to the industry ceiling, and the demand was in the off - season. The inventory of aluminum rods and ingots showed signs of accumulation, but the low - inventory state may support the price in the short term [13].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 9, 2025 - A-share market: The three major A-share indices fluctuated on July 9. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.13% to 3493.05, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to 10581.80, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.16% to 2184.67. The trading volume reached 1505.2 billion yuan, an increase of 51.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 index closed at 3991.40, down 7.05 from the previous day [2]. 2. Futures Market Analysis 2.1. Coking Coal and Coke - Price movement: The weighted index of coke fluctuated strongly, closing at 1461.4, up 33.1 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal was strong, closing at 882.8 yuan, up 29.7 from the previous day [2][3]. - Influencing factors: For coke, there is an expectation of price increase, but the profit is meager, and the daily output has been falling. The overall inventory is decreasing, and the procurement willingness of traders and steel mills has slightly improved. For coking coal, the output of coking coal mines is starting to rise, the spot auction market has improved, and the terminal inventory has increased, but the overall inventory is decreasing [4]. 2.2. Zhengzhou Sugar - Price movement: Affected by the technical adjustment of US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated higher on July 9. The market expects the short - term decline of US sugar to be limited, and the expected decline in sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of June also affected the price [4]. 2.3. Rubber - Price movement: Due to the prediction of heavy rain in Thailand, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated slightly higher on July 9. The market is worried about the supply, and the night - session price also rose [5]. 2.4. Soybean Meal - Price movement: The CBOT soybean futures fell on July 9. The domestic soybean meal futures market showed a pattern of loose supply. The M2509 contract closed at 2947 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The inventory of soybean meal in coastal areas increased, and the short - term futures price may fluctuate and adjust [6]. 2.5. Live Pigs - Price movement: The live pig futures price fluctuated on July 9. The LH2509 contract closed at 14265 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has accelerated, and the terminal market is in the off - season, so the price lacks support [7]. 2.6. Shanghai Copper - Price movement: The US tariff policy and the slowdown of industrial demand in some economies have put pressure on copper prices. The domestic copper inventory has increased slightly, which has intensified the short - term bearish sentiment [7]. 2.7. Cotton - Price movement: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13880 yuan/ton on the night of July 9. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased by 39 lots [7]. 2.8. Logs - Price movement: The 2509 log futures opened at 785, with the lowest at 780.5, the highest at 787, and closed at 7853.5, with a reduction of 389 lots. The spot price in Shandong remained unchanged, while that in Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter. The port inventory increased slightly, and the demand was weak [8]. 2.9. Steel - Price movement: The rb2510 contract closed at 3063 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3190 yuan/ton. The prices of coking coal and coke are stable and slightly strong, but the demand for steel is weak in the off - season, and the steel market may show a pattern of weak supply and demand [8]. 2.10. Alumina - Price movement: The ao2509 contract closed at 3130 yuan/ton. The anti - involution policy and the rectification of the photovoltaic industry have stimulated the bullish sentiment, and the price has broken through the 3100 - yuan mark [9]. 2.11. Shanghai Aluminum - Price movement: The al2508 contract closed at 20515 yuan/ton. The spot market was weak, the inventory in the East China region continued to increase, and the demand was weak in the off - season. The electrolytic aluminum inventory pressure is increasing [9][10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - On July 8, 2025, A - share major indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3500 points, and trading volume increased [1]. - The prices of various futures showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, production changes, and international market conditions [5]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 8, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% to 3497.48, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.46% to 10588.39, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.39% to 2181.08. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1453.9 billion yuan, an increase of 245.3 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3998.45 on July 8, up 33.28 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 8, the coke weighted index closed at 1431.5, up 2.8, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 856.9 yuan, up 7.1 [3][4]. - Coke: Due to rising coking coal prices, some coking plants cut production. Downstream steel mills maintained stable profits but only made necessary purchases. A proposed price increase for coke faced resistance from steel mills [5]. - Coking coal: Some previously shut - down mines resumed production. Mongolian coal imports may increase after the holiday. Short - term supply was tight, but import profits for some coal types improved [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors like short - term price increases and increased Brazilian exports in June, US sugar prices adjusted slightly lower on Monday. Zhengzhou sugar futures also showed a downward trend on Tuesday [5]. Rubber - Trump's tariff measures led to a rebound in Shanghai rubber prices on Tuesday, but weak fundamentals limited the rebound space [6]. Soybean Meal - On July 8, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to good crop weather in the US. In the domestic market, sufficient soybean supply and high oil - mill operating rates led to high soybean meal production and inventory pressure [6][8]. Live Pigs - On July 8, the LH2509 contract closed at 14275 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The supply of live pigs increased, while terminal demand was weak, and there was medium - to - long - term supply pressure [8]. Palm Oil - On July 8, palm oil prices broke through a three - month consolidation range, with the domestic contract closing at 8644, up 2.1%. The BMD Malaysian palm oil contract also rose [9]. Shanghai Copper - The outcome of the July 9 tariff negotiation was crucial. High production and weak demand in China, along with uncertainties in the macro - economy, put pressure on copper prices [9]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13730 yuan/ton, and cotton inventory decreased by 63 lots [10]. Logs - The 2509 log contract opened at 785 on July 8, with a focus on the 790 - 800 pressure range. Log inventory increased slightly, and demand was weak [10]. Steel - On July 8, the rb2510 contract closed at 3063 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton. Steel production might decrease slightly, and prices were expected to fluctuate narrowly [10]. Alumina - On July 8, the ao2509 contract closed at 3110 yuan/ton. Imported ore prices might rise, supporting production costs. The supply surplus situation continued [11][12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 8, the al2508 contract closed at 20525 yuan/ton. The market was weak, with sufficient supply and general demand [12].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures - On July 7, 2025, the three major A-share indices showed divergent trends. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and sorted, closing up 0.02% at 3473.13 points. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.70% to 10435.51 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.21% to 2130.19 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1208.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 219.9 billion yuan from the previous Friday. The CSI 300 Index adjusted and sorted on the same day, closing at 3965.18, a decrease of 17.03 from the previous day [1] Group 2: Coke and Coking Coal - On July 7, the weighted index of coke fluctuated and sorted, closing at 1429.2, a decrease of 13.0 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 849.6 yuan, a decrease of 15.3 from the previous day [2][3] - For coke, due to the increase in the price of spot coking coal, some coking plants cut production at a loss, and the supply pressure of coke eased. In the short term, most coking plants can maintain a small profit, and the possibility of a significant decline in the coke operating rate is low. The downstream steel mills have stable profits, but due to environmental protection restrictions in some areas, the pig iron output declined this week, and steel mills only maintained rigid - demand procurement. For coking coal, the previously shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production, and the output of coking coal has increased marginally. The customs clearance level of Mongolian coal was low last week, with an average of 600 - 700 vehicles per day. After the Mongolian National Day, the customs clearance is expected to increase. In the short term, the arrival of coking coal at ports is tight. Recently, the price of domestic coal has increased, and the import profit of some coal types has been restored, and subsequent shipments may increase [4] Group 3: Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the reduction of the spot quotation, the long - position liquidation suppressed the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract, which fluctuated slightly lower on July 7. The contract also fluctuated slightly lower at night due to short - selling pressure. As of the end of June in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, Yunnan Province sold 1.7511 million tons of sugar, an increase of 0.3182 million tons year - on - year, with a sugar sales rate of 72.40% and an industrial inventory of 0.6676 million tons, an increase of 0.0685 million tons year - on - year. Guangxi sold 5.1406 million tons of sugar in total, an increase of 0.6144 million tons year - on - year, with a sales - to - production ratio of 79.51%, a year - on - year increase of 6.29%. The industrial inventory was 1.3244 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3308 million tons [4] Group 4: Rubber - Affected by the concern that tire re - export trade may be restricted, Shanghai rubber fluctuated lower on July 7. At night, it fluctuated in a narrow range. According to Longzhong Information, the arrival and warehousing of overseas goods at Qingdao Port decreased week - on - week last week. Some downstream enterprises began maintenance and reduced production. With the rubber price running strongly, factories had no strong purchasing sentiment. The decline rate of the port's outbound rate was less than that of the inbound rate, resulting in a slight inventory accumulation trend of Qingdao's spot inventory. As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous period, an increase of 0.05%. The bonded area inventory was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 2.36%, and the general trade inventory was 553,600 tons, an increase of 0.40% [5] Group 5: Palm Oil - On July 7, palm oil maintained a small - range upward oscillation within the range, closing with a small positive line with upper and lower shadows. The highest price of the day was 8490, the lowest was 8412, and the closing price was 8466, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous trading day's close. As of July 4, 2025 (Week 27), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 538,100 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous week, an increase of 0.13%, and an increase of 65,000 tons compared with 473,100 tons in the same period last year, an increase of 13.73% [5][7] Group 6: Soybean Meal - In the international market, on July 7, CBOT soybean futures fell. The good weather in the United States and the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil pressured the prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced in its weekly crop growth report that as of the week ending July 6, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, in line with market expectations. The forecast shows that warm weather and sporadic rainfall are expected in the central and western regions of the United States in the next two weeks, which is generally beneficial to crop growth. In the domestic market, on July 7, the main soybean meal contract M2509 closed at 2937 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58%. Recently, domestic oil mills have sufficient soybean supplies, and the operating rate remains high. The output of soybean meal continues to be large. After the terminal pick - up volume is limited, the inventory will continue to increase. The loose supply pressures the price of soybean meal. In the short term, the soybean meal futures price may fluctuate and adjust. In the future, focus on the arrival volume of soybeans and the domestic soybean meal inventory [7] Group 7: Live Pigs - On July 7, the live - pig futures fluctuated weakly. The main contract LH2509 closed at 14,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45%. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has recovered. As the group pig enterprises gradually increase their slaughter volume, the willingness of retail pig farms to sell has increased, and the overall slaughter rhythm of live pigs has accelerated. Currently, the terminal market is in the off - season of purchase and sales, and the rigid demand in the downstream market is insufficient, which cannot strongly support the price of live pigs. With the relatively high production capacity of breeding sows, there is still supply pressure on live pigs in the medium and long term. In the short term, focus on the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end and the entry of secondary fattening [8] Group 8: Shanghai Copper - The better - than - expected employment growth in the United States implies that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates immediately, which will strengthen the U.S. dollar and put short - term pressure on copper prices. The domestic economy is running smoothly and steadily improving, but it faces uncertainties such as external trade. There is room for policy support, which has certain potential support for Shanghai copper. However, as the reciprocal tariff is approaching, the market may have a logic of reducing positions to avoid risks, and the copper price has adjusted. In the future, focus on the implementation of tariffs and changes in the supply - demand side [8] Group 9: Cotton - On the night of July 7, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,720 yuan/ton. According to the China Cotton Information Network on July 8, the minimum basis quotation of the designated delivery (supervision) warehouse in Xinjiang of the National Cotton Trading Market was 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 23 lots compared with the previous trading day [8] Group 10: Logs - On July 7, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 791, with the lowest at 785, the highest at 794.5, and closed at 787, with an increase of 324 lots in open interest. Pay attention to the pressure range of 790 - 800. On the same day, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. According to Woodlink Information, the inventory of logs at ports increased slightly, the demand was weak, there was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and the spot trading was weak. Pay attention to the spot price and the support of import data for the spot [9] Group 11: Steel - On July 7, the rb2510 contract of steel closed at 3061 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton. High - temperature warnings have been issued in many parts of the country, and affected by the typhoon in the southeast coastal areas, the demand for steel may weaken this week. If steel mills have difficulties in destocking, the steel output may also decrease, and the price of raw fuels may be under pressure again [9] Group 12: Alumina - On July 7, the ao2509 contract of alumina closed at 3042 yuan/ton. There are both disturbances in alumina ore and pressure from new production capacity. Recently, the financial meeting proposed the news of the withdrawal of backward production capacity. In the short term, policy news guides the market to oscillate strongly. Overall, although there are short - term positive factors in the news for alumina, the oversupply pattern is still difficult to change, and the upward pressure on prices continues [9] Group 13: Shanghai Aluminum - On July 7, the al2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,410 yuan/ton. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is close to the industry's upper limit and changes little. In terms of demand, the orders of terminal factories have decreased significantly in the off - season, and the high aluminum price restrains downstream procurement. The inventory of aluminum rods started to accumulate about two weeks earlier than that of aluminum ingots to confirm the inventory inflection point, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has also started to accumulate slightly recently. Whether it is an inflection point remains to be observed. The low - inventory state of aluminum is difficult to change in the short term, which plays a certain supporting role in the price [10][11]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 4, 2025 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.32% to 3472.32 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 10508.76 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.36% to 2156.23 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1428.6 billion yuan, an increase of 118.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 Index closed at 3982.20, up 14.13 [2]. 2. Futures Market Analysis 2.1. Coal Futures (Coke and Coking Coal) - Coke: The weighted index of coke adjusted downward, closing at 1438.7, down 6.3. Supply contracted as coke enterprises had small losses, low production enthusiasm, and reduced daily output. Demand had short - term support as iron - water production increased slightly. It was expected to run in a high - level oscillation [2]. - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and sorted, closing at 852.9 yuan, down 9.3. Domestic supply decreased due to safety supervision in Inner Mongolia and partial resumption in Shanxi. Import had inventory pressure. Demand was marginally better as blast - furnace iron - water production increased slightly while coke - enterprise开工 decreased [2]. 2.2. Sugar Futures (Zhengzhou Sugar) - The 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar had a narrow - range oscillation and a slight decline at night. In the 2024/2025 season, Guangxi's sugarcane planting area increased by 110,000 mu to 1.135 million mu, and sugar production increased by 283,600 tons to 6.465 million tons. Brazil's sugar exports in June were 3,361,831 tons, higher than 3,194,340 tons in the same period last year [2]. 2.3. Rubber Futures (Shanghai Rubber) - Shanghai rubber declined at night due to short - selling pressure. As of July 4, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 212,772 tons, down 2148 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 188,850 tons, down 3110 tons. The 20 - number rubber inventory was 35,784 tons, up 1513 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 29,736 tons, up 2118 tons [3]. 2.4. Soybean Meal Futures - International market: The US soybean planting area in 2025 decreased by 4% year - on - year. The growth indicators were close to the previous year and the five - year average. Future weather in the US Midwest was favorable for growth, but potential weather factors might attract funds [3]. - Domestic market: On July 4, the main M2509 contract of soybean meal closed at 2954 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. Domestic oil mills had sufficient soybean supply, high operating rates, and large production. Inventory would increase, limiting price increases. It was expected to oscillate in the short term [3][4]. 2.5. Live Pig Futures - On July 4, the live pig futures rose slightly, with the main LH2509 contract closing at 14305 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The terminal market was in the off - season, but early - month supply was tight due to scale farms' price - holding and farmers' reluctance to sell. As the price rose, the supply rhythm might recover. There was medium - term supply pressure in the third quarter [4]. 2.6. Cotton Futures - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13850 yuan/ton on Friday night. The minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was 430 yuan/ton. High temperatures of 35 - 40°C were expected in southern and eastern Xinjiang [4]. 2.7. Copper Futures (Shanghai Copper) - The price of Shanghai copper was affected by strong US non - farm data, a stronger US dollar, and rising non - US copper inventories. Supply pressure eased, but long - term supply was still tight. Demand was weak in domestic power infrastructure and home appliance procurement, but grid investment and new - energy demand provided some support. It was expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. 2.8. Log Futures - The 2509 contract of logs opened at 796, with a low of 791, a high of 798, and closed at 795, with a daily reduction of 154 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Port inventory increased slightly, demand was weak, and the supply - demand relationship was stable [5]. 2.9. Steel Futures (Rebar) - The Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting on July 1 was expected to improve the steel industry's supply - demand pattern, boosting the rebar futures price. Further price increases depended on substantial production cuts [5]. 2.10. Alumina Futures - The raw - material supply of alumina was relatively sufficient, with port inventory in the medium - high range. Guinea's supply decreased seasonally, and the price was stable. Domestic production capacity was high, and the futures price rebounded. Demand was stable as electrolytic - aluminum production capacity was capped [6]. 2.11. Aluminum Futures (Shanghai Aluminum) - Domestic production capacity was stable. Due to the off - season, downstream orders decreased, ingot production increased, and inventory accumulated slightly. Demand was weak as downstream buyers were cautious about high prices, but consumption expectations were positive due to policy support [6][7]. 2.12. Lithium Carbonate Futures - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased. The spot price stopped falling and rebounded due to improved demand expectations in July and rigid - demand orders. However, supply was still strong, and the oversupply situation continued [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 3, A - share market had a positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high this year, while trading volume decreased compared to the previous day [1]. - The weighted indices of coke and coking coal showed strength on July 3, with their prices rising [2][3]. - The supply - demand structures of coke and coking coal futures have improved, but there are still factors such as weak willingness of downstream steel mills to over - replenish and slow recovery of domestic mine production [4]. - Zhengzhou sugar futures showed different trends influenced by US sugar prices, spot prices, and monsoon rainfall in India [4]. - Shanghai rubber futures declined due to the drop in tire factory operating rates and weak tire replacement demand data [5]. - Palm oil prices reached a new high in weeks on July 3, with expected changes in Malaysia's inventory, production, and export volume in June [6]. - The international soybean market has limited upside space, and domestic soybean meal futures are in a volatile adjustment, with the focus on soybean arrivals and domestic inventory [7]. - The supply of live hogs is currently lower than expected, but there are risks of lagging production capacity and post - poned supply pressure in the far - month contracts [8]. - Shanghai copper prices lack further upward momentum, and the market needs to focus on macro - economic data and supply - demand situations [8]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures may be affected by the US - Vietnam trade framework agreement [9]. - Iron ore futures showed a volatile upward trend on July 3, with overseas shipments and domestic arrivals decreasing, and the market sentiment boosted by relevant news [9]. - Asphalt futures showed a volatile upward trend, but high - temperature and rainy seasons have hindered demand, so prices are expected to be volatile [9][10]. - Log futures need to focus on the 790 - 800 pressure range and 07 spot delivery information, and the spot market has weak demand [10]. - Steel prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term due to supply - side policies and market sentiment [10]. - Alumina futures may be strong in the short term but face downward pressure in the long term, and attention should be paid to Guinea's mine - end news [11]. - Shanghai aluminum futures are supported by low inventory and cost in the short term, and the focus is on the inventory inflection point [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On July 3, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18% to 3461.15, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17% to 10534.58, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.90% to 2164.09. The trading volume of the two markets was 1309.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3968.07 on July 3, up 24.38 from the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 3, the weighted index of coke closed at 1451.9, up 30.6 from the previous day [2]. - On July 3, the weighted index of coking coal closed at 871.2 yuan, up 34.7 from the previous day [3]. - After the fourth - round price adjustment of coke, the supply - demand structure has improved, but downstream steel mills are not very willing to over - replenish [4]. - The supply of coking coal is expected to increase slowly, and the total inventory is expected to continue to decline, with the supply - demand pattern improving [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected sufficient supply in Thailand and India, US sugar prices fluctuated downward on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar futures did not follow the decline on Thursday and showed a slight increase [4]. - US sugar prices rebounded at night, boosting Zhengzhou sugar futures to rise [4]. - India's monsoon rainfall in July may be "above normal", which is beneficial to agricultural production [4]. Shanghai Rubber - Due to the decline in tire factory operating rates this week and weak tire replacement demand data in June, Shanghai rubber futures declined on Thursday [5]. - The operating rates of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire sample enterprises decreased both on a weekly and annual basis [5]. Palm Oil - On July 3, palm oil prices jumped and then fluctuated upward, reaching a new high in weeks, with a 0.45% increase from the previous day's close [6]. - It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in June will decrease by 0.24% compared to May, production will decrease by 4.04%, and exports will increase by 4.16% [6]. Soybean Meal - On July 3, the international CBOT November soybean futures closed at 1048.25 cents per bushel, up 0.05%. The market's upside space is limited [7]. - Domestic soybean meal futures are in a volatile adjustment, and the focus is on soybean arrivals and domestic inventory [7]. Live Hogs - On July 3, live hog futures rose slightly, with the main contract LH2509 closing at 14370 yuan per ton, up 0.21% [8]. - The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has decreased in the short term, but there are risks of increasing supply in the future and weak terminal demand [8]. Shanghai Copper - US non - farm payrolls in June were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate met expectations, which boosted the US dollar [8]. - LME copper inventory and domestic social inventory have increased slightly, and copper prices lack upward momentum [8]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13780 yuan per ton on Thursday night [9]. - The base price of cotton in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased, and inventory decreased by 50 lots compared to the previous day [9]. - The US - Vietnam trade framework agreement may boost textile exports in the short term [9]. Iron Ore - On July 3, the main contract of iron ore futures rose 2.45% to 733 yuan [9]. - Overseas shipments and domestic arrivals of iron ore have decreased, and steel mills' profits are good, with iron - making output increasing slightly [9]. Asphalt - On July 3, the main contract of asphalt futures rose 0.25% to 3588 yuan [9]. - Asphalt production has increased, but shipments have decreased, and high - temperature and rainy seasons have affected demand [9][10]. Logs - On July 3, log futures opened at 793, with a closing price of 792.5 and an increase of 625 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the 790 - 800 pressure range [10]. - The spot prices of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and port inventory increased slightly, with weak demand [10]. Steel - On July 3, the prices of rb2510 and hc2510 were 3076 yuan/ton and 3208 yuan/ton respectively [10]. - The steel market is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, and short - term steel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [10]. Alumina - On July 3, the price of ao2509 was 3026 yuan/ton [11]. - In the short term, alumina futures are strong due to market sentiment, but in the long term, prices may face downward pressure [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 3, the price of al2508 was 20680 yuan/ton [11]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory and cost in the short term, and the focus is on the inventory inflection point [11].

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 7 月 3 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】周三（7 月 2 日）A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.09%，收报 3454.79 点；深证 成指跌 0.61%，收报 10412.63 点；创业板指跌 1.13%，收报 2123.72 点。沪深两市成交额达到 13770 亿，较昨日 缩量 891 亿。 沪深 300 指数 7 月 2 日窄幅震荡，收盘 3943.68，环比上涨 0.92。 【焦炭 焦煤】7 月 2 日焦炭加权指数震荡趋强，收盘价 1446.8，环比上涨 44.6。 7 月 2 日，焦煤加权指数强势，收盘价 855.2 元，环比上涨 29.6。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：港口焦炭现货市场报价上涨，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1170 元/吨，较上期价格涨 10 元/吨。供 应，唐山地区空气质量略差，部分焦化企业有降低负荷，同时原料焦煤价格企稳，焦企成本压力加大，下游钢厂 及贸易商采购积极性一般。需求，终端钢材需求弱势运行，高炉整体开工仍在高位，焦炭刚需有一定支撑。 焦煤：吕梁地区主焦煤（A11、S0.6、G88 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - On July 1, 2025, A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.39%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.11%, and ChiNext Index down 0.24%. The trading volume reached 1.466 trillion yuan, slightly down by 20.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various commodities showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 index rose slightly, while the coke and coking coal weighted indexes declined. The prices of Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, palm oil, etc., were affected by different factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and international trade situations [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 1, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3457.75, up 0.39%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10476.29, up 0.11%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2147.92, down 0.24%. The trading volume was 1.466 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 20.8 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 3942.76, up 6.68 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 1, the coke weighted index closed at 1393.2, down 34.8; the coking coal weighted index closed at 823.9 yuan, down 27.8 [3][4]. - For coke, the cost of coking enterprises with long - term contracts may decrease, while those with market - based procurement may face higher costs. The probability of price increases after four rounds of price cuts is low [5]. - For coking coal, supply has tightened recently, and the inventory structure has improved. However, there is a strong expectation of coal mine resumption, and the terminal demand is under pressure [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected good harvest in Thailand and India, and the 22.1% decrease in Brazil's sugar production in the first half of June, the US sugar price fell on Monday, and the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract declined on Tuesday [5]. Rubber - Due to excessive rainfall in Thailand affecting rubber tapping, the spot price in Southeast Asia has been firm. The Shanghai rubber futures rose on Tuesday and fluctuated slightly at night. The inventory in Qingdao Port continued to increase [6][7]. Palm Oil - On July 1, palm oil was in a volatile state, closing at 8336, up 0.07%. As of June 27, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions increased by 23.57% week - on - week and 25.67% year - on - year [7]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on July 1, CBOT soybeans fluctuated. The good condition of US soybeans was offset by the rise in soybean oil prices. Domestically, the soybean meal M2509 contract closed at 2961 yuan/ton on July 1. With sufficient soybean imports and high oil mill operating rates, soybean meal inventory will gradually increase, and it will run weakly [8]. Live Pigs - On July 1, the live pig futures contract LH2509 closed at 13865 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and the futures will run weakly [9]. Copper - Macroscopically, copper prices are supported by tight mines and low inventory, but the slowdown of Fed rate cuts and US tariff policies limit the upside. Fundamentally, overseas premiums drive LME copper inventory reduction, and domestic social inventory is lower than last year, so copper prices will continue to be strong [9]. Iron Ore - On July 1, the iron ore 2509 contract fell 1.32% to close at 708.5 yuan. Overseas shipments and domestic arrivals have decreased, while steel mills' blast furnace profits are good, and iron ore will fluctuate in the short term [9]. Asphalt - On July 1, the asphalt 2509 contract rose 0.17% to close at 3562 yuan. The processing profit has improved slightly, but demand is still weak, and the price will fluctuate in the short term [10]. Logs - On July 1, the log 2509 contract opened at 784, with a low of 778, a high of 789, and closed at 787, with an increase of 48 lots. The inventory in ports has increased slightly, and demand is weak [11]. Cotton - On the night of July 1, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13775 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased by 62 lots [11]. Steel - On July 1, rb2510 closed at 3003 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3136 yuan/ton. The black - series rebound has paused, and although there are rumors of production cuts, terminal demand is still weak [11]. Alumina - Under the situation of supply surplus in the third quarter, alumina prices will be mainly determined by cost. The price is under pressure due to the expected large - scale new production capacity in the future [12]. Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is close to the industry limit. Although terminal demand is in the off - season, the processing link has maintained a certain level of demand. Low inventory is currently supporting aluminum prices, but there is a risk of demand weakening in the future [12].