Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 12, the A - share market showed a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.63%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1308.4 billion yuan, an increase of 116.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Different futures varieties presented various trends. For example, the CSI 300 Index was strong, while the coke and coking coal futures showed weak rebounds and oscillations respectively. The prices of Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, palm oil, etc. were affected by multiple factors such as international market conditions, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Variety **Stock Index Futures** - On May 12, the A - share market was strong. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3369.24 points, up 0.82%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10301.16 points, up 1.72%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2064.71 points, up 2.63%. The trading volume was 1308.4 billion yuan, an increase of 116.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3890.61, up 44.45 [1]. **Coke and Coking Coal** - On May 12, the coke weighted index had a weak rebound, closing at 1474.0 yuan, up 10.9; the coking coal weighted index had a weak oscillation, closing at 889.6 yuan, up 5.4. For coke, some steel mills lowered the purchase base price, and the coke output decreased slightly this week. However, steel mills had a rigid demand for coke. For coking coal, domestic mines increased production steadily, the coking enterprise's replenishment demand slowed down, and the port coking coal was expected to continue de - stocking [2][3][4]. **Zhengzhou Sugar** - Affected by the rise in crude oil prices, the US sugar continued to rebound from the low last Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract oscillated upwards on May 12 due to factors such as the rise of US sugar, the relaxation of Sino - US tariff disputes, and the increase in spot quotes. It oscillated and rested at night due to large short - term gains. In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season as of mid - April, Brazil's central - southern region produced 731,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%. Brazil exported 1.5558 million tons of sugar and molasses in April, a year - on - year decrease of 17.65% [4]. **Rubber** - Affected by the relaxation of Sino - US tariff disputes, the Shanghai rubber oscillated upwards on May 12 and oscillated and rested at night due to large short - term gains. In April 2025, China imported 685,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 31% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to April 2025, the total import was 2.869 million tons, a 23.2% increase from the same period in 2024 [4]. **Palm Oil** - On May 12, palm oil rebounded slightly from the low. The main contract P2509 closed at 8024 yuan, up 1.75%. As of May 9, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 337,300 tons, a 5.28% decrease from the previous week and a 15.62% decrease from the same period last year. Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared with the same period last month [5][7]. **Soybean Meal** - In the international market, CBOT soybean futures closed up, hitting a three - month high. The US Department of Agriculture estimated that the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 295 million bushels, lower than analysts' expectations. The US soybean planting rate as of May 11 was 48%, higher than market expectations. In the domestic market, on May 12, the soybean meal futures price oscillated. The M2509 contract closed at 2908 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The inventory of soybean meal stopped falling and rebounded but was still low. In the future, the market may oscillate weakly due to strong supply and weak demand [7]. **Live Pigs** - On May 12, live pig futures oscillated. The LH2509 main contract closed at 13,870 yuan/ton, down 0.39%. The current consumer demand for fresh pork is weak, and the market is in a pattern of sufficient supply. The futures may oscillate weakly [8]. **Shanghai Copper** - The main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated strongly, with an increase in positions. The copper concentrate supply is still tight, but the domestic port inventory is sufficient, and the supply of refined copper will still increase slightly. The downstream consumption support may weaken, and the inventory is still decreasing but at a slower rate. The Sino - US economic and trade talks and the domestic monetary policy bring positive signals [8]. **Iron Ore** - On May 12, the 2509 main contract of iron ore oscillated and rose by 3.16%, closing at 718.5 yuan. Overseas shipments decreased, and domestic arrivals decreased slightly，but were still at a high level. The iron ore market may oscillate in the short term [9]. **Asphalt** - On May 12, the 2506 main contract of asphalt oscillated and rose by 1.55%, closing at 3481 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt increased, and social inventory accumulated slightly. The demand release was still average, and the short - term trend is oscillatory [9]. **Cotton** - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,310 yuan/ton at the night session on Monday. The base - price quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was at least 610 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 124 lots compared with the previous day [9]. **Logs** - On May 12, the 2507 log contract opened at 790.5, with the lowest at 787, the highest at 810, and closed at 804, with a reduction of 4061 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The port inventory decreased, and the overall demand was weak. Attention should be paid to import data and downstream purchasing and traders' price - holding intentions [9][11]. **Steel** - On May 12, rb2510 closed at 3082 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3220 yuan/ton. The Sino - US trade talks brought positive news, but the inventory reduction of sample steel slowed down. The export of steel in May and June is expected to continue to increase, especially the demand for steel in the manufacturing industry [11]. **Alumina** - On May 12, ao2509 closed at 2843 yuan/ton. The production of alumina decreased temporarily, and the inventory decreased. However, once the profit is restored, production capacity will resume on a large scale. The cost has decreased, and the short - term rebound of the futures price will be limited [12]. **Shanghai Aluminum** - On May 12, al2506 closed at 19,910 yuan/ton. The supply of alumina raw materials is relatively sufficient, and the electrolytic aluminum production is at a high level. The demand support has slightly weakened, and the overall consumption is expected to decline in the future, but there is still some resilience at present [12].

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 12 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周五（5 月 9 日）A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.30%，收报 3342.00 点；深证 成指跌 0.69%，收报 10126.83 点；创业板指跌 0.87%，收报 2011.77 点。沪深两市成交额达到 11920 亿，较昨日 缩量 1014 亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 9 日强势整理，收盘 3846.16，环比下跌 6.74。 【焦炭 焦煤】5 月 9 日焦炭加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 1449.7 元，环比下跌 30.8。 5 月 9 日，焦煤加权指数弱势，收盘价 878.1 元，环比下跌 16.4。 【豆粕】国际市场，美国农业部周度出口销售数据疲软，对华销售量几乎为零。美国农业部定于 5 月 12 日 公布月度供需报告，届时将对 2025/2026 年度全球及主要国家的供需情况作出首份预估，报告前市场预计新季美 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 １ 编辑：国新国证期货 客服产品系列•日评 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦化第二轮提涨被拒，看涨情绪有所回落，日产 ...

国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 9 日 星期五 客服产品系列•日评 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（5 月 8 日）A 股三大指数集体收涨，沪指涨 0.28%，收报 3352.00 点；深证成指涨 0.93%， 收报 10197.66 点；创业板指涨 1.65%，收报 2029.45 点。沪深两市成交额达到 12934 亿，较昨日缩量 1749 亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 8 日震荡趋强，收盘 3852.90，环比上涨 21.27。 【焦炭 焦煤】5 月 8 日焦炭加权指数弱势，收盘价 1479.8 元，环比下跌 33.9。 5 月 8 日，焦煤加权指数弱势运行，收盘价 894.5 元，环比下跌 19.3。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：港口焦炭现货市场报价不变，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1320 元/吨，较上期价格不变。供应，当 前多数焦企盈利水平多处于盈亏平衡附近，整体开工负荷维持高稳，下游钢厂高炉铁水产量较高，对焦炭需求维 持偏好，部分厂内库存中性偏低，压力较大的企业降价销售。需求端，钢厂盈利能力仍旧较好，高炉开工率维持 高位，247 家钢厂日均铁水产量回升，对焦炭需求较 ...

客服产品系列•日评 【胶】沪胶周三冲高回落。受泰国宣布推迟开割 1 个月的消息影响期价震荡走高，后因泰胶农团体希望政府 方面与中方就泰橡胶出口零关税展开谈判的消息打击期价震荡回落。因空头打压沪胶夜盘震荡小幅走低。泰国橡 胶管理局突然宣布将 2025 年度橡胶开割季向后推迟 1 个月，预计泰国延迟开割季的决定将会是天然橡胶供应量 减少 20 万吨。目前老挝、缅甸和柬埔寨出产的橡胶出口到中国还享受 0%关税待遇，而泰国却没有，泰胶农团体 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 １ 编辑：国新国证期货 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 8 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（5 月 7 日）A 股三大指数集体收涨，沪指涨 0.80%，收报 3342.67 点；深证成指涨 0.22%， 收报 10104.13 点；创业板指涨 0.51%，收报 1996.51 点。沪深两市成交额达到 14683 亿，较昨日放量 1321 亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 7 日强势震荡，收盘 3831.63，环比上涨 23.09。 【焦炭 焦煤】5 月 7 日焦炭加权指数弱势整理，收盘价 1509.4 元，环比下跌 10.2。 ...

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 6th, the A-share market opened strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.13% to 3316.11, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.84% to 10082.34, and the ChiNext Index up 1.97% to 1986.41. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.3362 trillion yuan, an increase of 166.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index trended strongly on May 6th, closing at 3808.54, up 37.97 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal Coke - On May 6th, the weighted coke index remained weak, closing at 1501.6 yuan, down 48.4 [1]. - On the supply side, the start - up rate of independent coking plants increased steadily with profit and hot metal growth, and the start - up of steel - enterprise - affiliated coking plants was stable. The profit per ton of independent coking plants was close to the break - even line, so the motivation for production reduction was weak. In terms of demand, the average daily output of hot metal last week was 2.4542 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons, showing resilient rigid demand. However, due to crude steel production restrictions and Sino - US tariff issues, the market was worried about steel demand, and speculative demand weakened. In terms of inventory, ports and independent coking plants reduced inventory, while steel mills increased inventory. The total inventory decreased slightly, and inventory was transferred from upstream to downstream [1]. Coking Coal - During the holiday, coking coal showed a flat performance. Recently, the news of steel production restrictions has depressed the sentiment of coking coal. On the supply side, the domestic coal supply continued to resume production, with the operating rate of 523 sample mines at 89.74%, a week - on - week increase of 1.36%. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased due to environmental protection restrictions, and the import volume of seaborne coal decreased due to factors such as profit. Overall, it showed a trend of "increasing domestically and decreasing externally", but the total supply was still relatively abundant [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the large short - term decline, short - sellers covered their positions at low prices, supporting the continued rebound of US sugar on Monday. Supported by the rise of US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated higher on Tuesday, but the decline in the spot price limited the upward space of the futures price. The night session of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated slightly [2]. Rubber - Boosted by the rising stock market, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated upward on Tuesday. Affected by the large short - term increase and technical factors, the night session of Shanghai rubber fluctuated and adjusted slightly higher. According to the ANRPC's March 2025 report, global natural rubber production in March was expected to increase by 0.9% to 798,000 tons, a decrease of 15.6% from the previous month; consumption was expected to decrease by 0.1% to 1.36 million tons, an increase of 14.6% from the previous month [3]. Palm Oil - On May 6th, palm oil opened low and moved lower following the external market. The main contract P2509 closed with a downward - gap candlestick with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 7960, the lowest was 7918, and the closing price was 7932, down 0.53% [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, CBOT soybean futures closed lower on Tuesday, affected by concerns about international trade tensions and the decline of soybean oil futures. In the domestic market, soybean meal futures fluctuated on Tuesday, with the M2509 main contract closing at 2915 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.17%. As imported Brazilian soybeans are unloaded at factories, the operating rate of oil mills will increase rapidly, and domestic soybean meal inventory will continue to rise. The soybean meal market may fluctuate weakly under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [5]. Live Hogs - On Tuesday, live hog futures fluctuated, with the LH2509 main contract closing at 13,960 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.36%. Currently, the market is in the off - season of demand, and the overall consumer demand is weak. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding side has accelerated, and the supply of live hogs in the market has increased. The live hog futures may fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. Shanghai Copper - Global economic uncertainty has intensified, but in April, the composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, still above the critical point, indicating that Chinese enterprises' production and business activities continued to expand, providing some support for copper prices. At the same time, global copper mine supply has been affected, and China's economic recovery has led to an increase in copper demand. Under the combined effect of supply - demand factors and capital inflow, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed slightly higher [6]. Cotton - On the night of Tuesday, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 12,835 yuan/ton. On May 7th, the minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Exchange was 610 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 76 lots compared with the previous trading day. The emergence rate of cotton in Xinjiang was good [6]. Iron Ore - On May 6th, the main contract of iron ore 2509 fluctuated and closed flat at 704.5 yuan. The overseas shipment of iron ore decreased due to the maintenance of some port berths in Australia. Steel mills' rigid demand for replenishment supported the further increase of hot metal output, but the room for further increase was limited. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Asphalt - On May 6th, the main contract of asphalt 2506 fluctuated and fell, with a decline of 1.32%, closing at 3361 yuan. The planned asphalt production in May increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Affected by holidays, asphalt shipments decreased, and social inventory was high. Recently, international oil prices have fallen sharply, weakening the cost support. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Logs - On Tuesday, the 2507 log contract opened at 784, with a minimum of 783, a maximum of 793, and closed at 789.5, with a daily increase of 521 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 780 - 790 and the resistance at 803. On May 6th, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu was 790 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. Port log inventory decreased month - on - month, and outbound volume increased slightly. Overall demand was still weak, and there was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship [8]. Steel - On May 6th, rb2510 closed at 3077 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3196 yuan/ton. The hot metal output of long - process steelmaking reached the peak and then declined this week, and the operating rate of electric furnaces also decreased slightly. The output of rebar decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, terminal demand increased on a low - base basis but was weaker than the same period in previous years. The actual demand was lower than expected. Currently, there is no new policy information, and the upward driving force of steel prices is weak. Steel is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [8]. Alumina - On May 6th, ao2509 closed at 2675 yuan/ton. With the increase in bauxite supply, bauxite prices still have some room to fall, which is negative for alumina prices. The situation of production reduction, resumption, and new capacity release coexists. There is still capacity to resume production in Australia and India overseas. The overall supply of alumina is expected to increase significantly in the future [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - On May 6th, al2506 closed at 19,785 yuan/ton. The easing of Sino - US relations on tariff issues stimulated the rise of US stocks and drove up the price of aluminum in the external market. However, the weakening of aluminum demand in the off - season restricted the upward range of aluminum prices. Aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The index price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 67,184 yuan/ton, down 845 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 65,700 - 68,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 67,100 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 64,900 - 65,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 65,400 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton. Lithium carbonate is expected to remain in oversupply in May, and its price may maintain a weak - shock trend in the short term [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed mixed performance on April 30, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.51%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.83%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.1693 trillion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are facing supply - demand imbalances. Coke may face supply pressure, while the coking coal market remains in a loose supply pattern [1]. - The sugar market was affected by various factors during the holiday. The US economic situation and Brazilian sugar production influenced the price of US sugar, which first declined and then stabilized [1]. - The natural rubber market has a slightly positive demand outlook, with production expected to increase by 0.4% and demand by 1.5% in 2025 compared to 2024 [2]. - The soybean meal market may experience weak price fluctuations due to factors such as the increase in Brazilian soybean exports and the decline in the linkage between the domestic and US markets [3]. - The palm oil market in Malaysia is expected to see an increase in inventory in April 2025, with production and exports also increasing [4]. - The copper market has both positive and negative factors. Short - term prices may fluctuate, but the long - term upward trend remains [5]. - The iron ore market is in a state of seasonal supply increase, with short - term price fluctuations [6]. - The asphalt market is expected to show a fluctuating trend with increasing demand [8]. - The alumina market has an increasing supply due to new capacity and production resumption [9]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating price trend due to oversupply [10]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On April 30, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3279.03, down 0.23%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9899.82, up 0.51%; the ChiNext Index closed at 1948.03, up 0.83%. The trading volume was 1.1693 trillion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 3770.57, down 4.51 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On April 30, the coke weighted index closed at 1542.6 yuan, down 13.1; the coking coal weighted index closed at 929.2 yuan, down 1.7. Coke may face supply pressure due to increased production, while the coking coal market remains in a loose supply pattern [1]. Zhengzhou Sugar - During the holiday, US sugar first declined and then stabilized. Brazilian sugar production in the first half of April was 73.1 tons, an increase of 1.25% year - on - year, higher than analysts' expectations. The 5 - month raw sugar contract delivery volume was about 1.48 million tons. The US economy showed signs of contraction [1]. Rubber - During the holiday, Southeast Asian rubber prices fluctuated slightly. OPEC +'s decision to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day since June affected the oil price, which in turn influenced the rubber market. The global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 0.4% and demand by 1.5% in 2025 compared to 2024 [2]. Soybean Meal - During the May Day holiday, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell. Brazilian soybean exports increased, and the domestic soybean meal market may be affected by the arrival of Brazilian soybeans and the weakening linkage with the US market [3]. Palm Oil - During the holiday, the Malaysian palm oil market showed changes. In April 2025, production is expected to increase by 16.9%, exports by 9.7%, and inventory by 14.8% compared to March [4]. Shanghai Copper - During the May Day holiday, the outer - market copper price fluctuated. Positive factors include decreasing domestic copper inventory and uncertain global copper supply. Negative factors include weak US consumer confidence and concerns about future demand [5]. Cotton - During the May Day holiday, the outer - market cotton price rose slightly. Domestic policies to stabilize the economy were introduced, and Xinjiang's cotton sowing was basically completed [5]. Iron Ore - Recently, iron ore shipments have increased seasonally, port inventory has accumulated, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. Asphalt - Recently, asphalt refinery operating rates have increased, and the planned production in May has increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Demand is expected to further improve, and short - term prices will fluctuate [8]. Logs - On April 30, the log futures showed certain price ranges. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. Port inventory decreased, and overall demand was weak [8]. Steel - The rebar market has good fundamentals, with production growth restricted by profits and consumption remaining resilient. The hot - rolled coil market is affected by tariff policies, but the impact may be gradually mitigated [8]. Alumina - The total production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China has reached 109.22 million tons per year, and the operating capacity has increased by 3.48 million tons per year. New capacity and production resumption will increase supply [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - The macro - economic situation is complex, with the US tariff policy being uncertain. The supply side is stable, and the demand side shows regional differences [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has been declining. Due to oversupply and falling ore prices, the price is expected to remain weak and fluctuate in the short term [10].

Report Summary Core Views - On April 29, A-share major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.05% to 3286.65, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.05% to 9849.80, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.13% to 1931.94. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.02 trillion yuan, a decrease of 343 million yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index had a narrow - range consolidation on April 29, closing at 3775.08, down 6.54 from the previous day [1]. Variety - Specific Summaries Stock Index Futures - On April 29, A - share major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all declined slightly, and the trading volume shrank slightly [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On April 29, the coke weighted index was weak and volatile, closing at 1556.4 yuan, down 13.4 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index was also weak, closing at 927.4 yuan, down 18.0 from the previous day [1]. - After the first round of price increase for coke, the coking profit improved, and coking plants increased production actively. The steel mills' profit ratio increased, and the billet export volume increased significantly. The pig iron output increased more than expected this week, and the coke fundamentals improved marginally [1]. - The coking coal mine's operating rate increased month - on - month, the seaborne coal shipment from Reuters was still tight, and the customs clearance at the port decreased due to environmental inspections. The coking profit continued to improve, but the pre - holiday inventory replenishment was over, and coking plants only maintained rigid demand procurement. The upstream coking coal mines had high inventory pressure [1]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The market was concerned about the expiration and delivery of the May contract, and traders expected the delivery volume to be about 2 million tons, strengthening the view of sufficient global supply. Affected by the decline of US sugar and the long - holiday effect, the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract fluctuated downward on Wednesday [1]. Rubber - Affected by the decline in Southeast Asian spot quotes and the long - holiday effect, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly lower on Wednesday. Due to long - position holders closing positions to avoid holiday risks, Shanghai rubber closed slightly lower at night [2]. - Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first quarter were 122.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.6%. Indonesia's total exports in the first two months were 29.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12% [2]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybeans fluctuated and closed lower on Tuesday. The start of US soybeans in 2025 was basically normal. Brazil's soybean harvest was nearly over, and it exported 12.95 billion tons of soybeans in the first four weeks of April, with the daily average export volume increasing by 14% year - on - year. As of April 24, the soybean harvest rate in Argentina was 13%, lagging behind 23% in the same period last year [2]. - Domestically, the soybean meal futures were weak on Tuesday. The main M2509 contract closed at 2964 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.7%. With the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, the market expected a significant increase in the operating rate of oil mills after the holiday, and the soybean meal inventory would turn around. The domestic soybean meal market was in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the price might be weak. Short - term attention should be paid to the arrival volume of soybeans [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - The hog futures price was weak and volatile on Tuesday. The main LH2509 contract closed at 13910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.42%. The slaughter rhythm of the near - end breeding side accelerated, and the market supply of hogs increased. Supported by the May Day holiday, some slaughterhouses increased their pre - holiday inventory, but the market substitutes were sufficient, and the sales of white - striped pigs in many wholesale markets were still difficult. According to the inventory of breeding sows, the theoretical supply capacity of hogs would increase month - on - month in the second quarter, and the market was in a pattern of loose supply. The hog futures might be weak and volatile, and short - term attention should be paid to the price difference between standard and fat hogs and the slaughter situation [3]. Palm Oil - On April 29, palm oil continued to decline. The main contract P2509 closed with a negative K - line, with the highest price of 8208, the lowest price of 8116, and the closing price of 8120, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous day [4]. - The commercial inventory of palm oil was 400,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons week - on - week, an increase of 40,000 tons month - on - month, and a decrease of 70,000 tons year - on - year. The near - month purchase orders increased, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil was still inverted, and the incremental consumption of palm oil did not improve significantly [4]. Shanghai Copper - On April 29, the price of the main Shanghai copper contract fluctuated slightly, and the market was relatively stable. The US tariff policy was still uncertain, and the US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The mine supply was tight, the smelting processing fee decreased, the domestic consumption peak season supported the demand, the inventory trend was downward, but the medium - term demand expectation was cautious. The short - term impact of tariffs eased, but the medium - term uncertainty remained. With the approaching of the holiday, the market sentiment was cautious, and the copper price continued to fluctuate widely [4]. Iron Ore - On April 29, the main iron ore 2509 contract fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.28% and a closing price of 709 yuan. The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased significantly this period, the arrivals also increased, and the port inventory increased. The steel mills' rigid demand for inventory replenishment supported the pig iron output to rise again, but the pig iron output was already at a high level, and the room for further increase was limited. The iron ore showed a volatile trend in the short term [5]. Asphalt - On April 29, the main asphalt 2506 contract fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.53% and a closing price of 3430 yuan. The operating rate of asphalt refineries increased for three consecutive periods, the refinery processing profit was repaired, and the output was expected to increase. The shipment volume increased for two consecutive periods, and the market demand was supported. The asphalt showed a volatile trend in the short term [5]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 12790 yuan/ton. On April 29, the minimum basis price of the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Exchange was 580 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 359 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. Logs - The 2507 log contract opened at 793.5 on Tuesday, with the lowest price of 785, the highest price of 797, and the closing price of 787, and the position decreased by 320 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 780 - 790 and the resistance at 803 [5]. - The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 790 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. The port log inventory decreased month - on - month, the outbound volume increased slightly, the overall demand was still weak, there was no major conflict in the supply - demand relationship, and the market was waiting for the spot price to stabilize. Attention should be paid to the import data, the downstream purchasing, and the price - holding intention of traders [6][8]. Steel - On April 29, rb2510 closed at 3100 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3210 yuan/ton. The terminal demand increased on a low - base basis but was weaker than the same period in previous years, and the apparent demand was lower than expected. In the context of the "Silver April" peak season with lower - than - expected demand and no new policy information, the upward driving force of steel prices was weak. It was expected that steel prices would fluctuate repeatedly in a weak pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback expectation of the black chain [8]. Alumina - On April 29, ao2509 closed at 2766 yuan/ton. The operating situation of alumina enterprises was still changing rapidly. Due to the previous centralized maintenance and production reduction, the market supply pressure was relieved, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly. The alumina had short - term support at the bottom. However, new production capacity was gradually advancing, and overseas alumina production capacity was also ready to be put into operation. There was still high supply pressure in the future, and medium - and long - term negative factors remained [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On April 29, al2506 closed at 19930 yuan/ton. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated in a narrow range. In the past week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continued to decline rapidly, by 30,000 tons and 34,000 tons respectively, and the total inventory was at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The short - term pessimism was repaired, and the strong fundamentals supported the aluminum price to return to around 20,000 yuan. However, to further expand the industry profit of more than 3000 yuan, a stronger supply - demand gap expectation was needed. Under the shadow of the trade war, the off - season demand outlook was not optimistic [9].

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 4 月 29 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一（4 月 28 日）A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.20%，收报 3288.41 点；深 证成指跌 0.62%，收报 9855.20 点；创业板指跌 0.65%，收报 1934.46 点。沪深两市成交额 10564 亿，较上周五 缩量 572 亿。 沪深 300 指数 4 月 28 日窄幅震荡，收盘 3781.62，环比下跌 5.38。 【焦炭 焦煤】4 月 28 日焦炭加权指数区间整理，收盘价 1563.8 元，环比下跌 18.3。 4 月 28 日，焦煤加权指数弱势震荡，收盘价 937.9 元，环比下跌 15.2。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：铁水日产处于高位支撑焦炭入炉刚需，节前下游亦有阶段性补库行为，焦企顺势启动焦炭第二轮 50-55 元/吨提涨，但钢厂存抵触心态，贸易商囤货积极性并未显著回升，且即期焦化利润修复使得焦炉开工得到同步 提振，供应压力随之而来。 焦煤：部分煤矿因工作面更换存在小幅减产情况，但矿端整体生产较为平稳，原煤库存依然处于高位，坑口 贸易表现平 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周五（4 月 25 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.07%，收报 3295.06 点；深 证成指涨 0.39%，收报 9917.06 点；创业板指涨 0.59%，收报 1947.19 点。沪深两市成交额达到 11136 亿，较昨 日微幅放量 45 亿。 沪深 300 指数 4 月 25 日窄幅整理，收盘 3786.99，环比上涨 2.64。 【焦炭 焦煤】4 月 25 日焦炭加权指数区间震荡，收盘价 1566.4 元，环比下跌 21.0。 4 月 25 日，焦煤加权指数弱势整理，收盘价 946.0 元，环比上涨 1.7。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：假期将近，下游需求好转，钢材需求尚可，成交好转，短期价格有支撑，目前铁水超预期回升，钢厂 开工率较好。焦炭市场暂稳运行，焦企出货较顺畅。部分钢厂采购积极性较强，多数钢厂按需采购为主。焦炭第 一轮提涨全面落地，提涨幅度 50-55 元/吨，一轮提涨落地后焦企利润好转，焦企整体开工较稳。 焦煤：部分煤矿完成月度任务有减产行为，煤矿 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 4 月 25 日 星期五 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（4 月 24 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.03%，收报 3297.29 点；深 证成指跌 0.58%，收报 9878.32 点；创业板指跌 0.68%，收报 1935.86 点。沪深两市成交额 11090 亿，较昨日缩 量 1207 亿。 沪深 300 指数 4 月 24 日窄幅震荡，收盘 3784.36，环比下跌 2.52。 【焦炭 焦煤】4 月 24 日焦炭加权指数区间整理，收盘价 1591.1 元，环比上涨 24.1。 4 月 24 日，焦煤加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 945.2 元，环比上涨 11.3。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 客服产品系列•日评 【豆粕】国际市场，周四 CBOT 大豆期货上涨，7 月合约触及近两个月来的最高水平。美国释放对华降低关 税信号，全球金融市场对经济衰退的担忧情绪缓解。美国农业部发布的周度作物生长报告显示，截至 4 月 20 日 当周，美国大豆种植率为 8%，高于市场预期的 7%，五年均值为 5%。美国农业部周四公布的出口销售报告显 ...