Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 27, 2025 - A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 3875.26, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 12875.19, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.44% to 3031.30. The trading volume of the two markets was 1709.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 73.6 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300: It closed at 4515.40, a decrease of 2.22 [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1. Energy Futures - Coke: The weighted index closed at 1652.3, a rise of 0.3. Port spot prices fell, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at 1460 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. Supply increased as coking enterprises' costs improved, and demand was weak as steel mills' profitability was poor and maintenance expanded [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index closed at 1114.0 yuan, a decrease of 0.6. Prices in some regions changed, with Shanxi's main coking coal down 90 yuan to 1580 yuan/ton. Supply recovered as coal mines resumed production, and there was pressure on coal mine shipments [3][4]. 2.2. Agricultural Futures - Zhengzhou Sugar: The 2601 contract rose slightly due to factors such as the rebound of US sugar and short - covering. The 2025/26 global sugar supply is expected to have a surplus of 3.7 million tons, the largest since 2017/18. Brazil's sugarcane production is expected to be 659 million tons, and the Philippines' raw sugar production is expected to be 2.09 million tons [4]. - Rubber: Affected by Thailand's weather warning and potential output loss of up to 90,000 tons, the Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly. Global light - vehicle sales showed growth in October [6]. - Live Hogs: The LH2601 contract rose 0.39% to 11585 yuan/ton. The supply was strong due to high - level sow inventory and concentrated slaughter, while demand was weak, and the market was in a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern [6]. - Soybean Meal: The M2601 contract rose 1.33% to 3055 yuan/ton. The US soybean market was closed on November 27. China's soybean purchases from the US were close to 2 million tons. Brazil's soybean planting rate was 81%, lower than last year. Domestic supply improved, and the futures price had limited upward drive [6]. - Palm Oil: The P2601 contract rose 1.04% to 8528. Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 25 were estimated to be 583,574 tons, a 40.77% decrease from the previous month [6]. 2.3. Metal Futures - Shanghai Copper: The 2601 contract rose 0.35% to 86990 yuan/ton. Supply was tight due to factors such as smelter maintenance and mine accidents, and demand was strong in new - energy and other fields. However, high prices and potential factors might limit the increase [6][7]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract closed at 13710 yuan/ton at night. Cotton inventory increased by 65 lots, and the purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 6.18 yuan/kg [7]. - Logs: The 2601 contract closed at 765, with an increase of 106 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and attention should be paid to factors such as spot prices and imports [7]. - Iron Ore: The 2601 contract rose 0.44% to 799.5 yuan. Shipping volume decreased, and port and steel mill inventories declined. The price was in a volatile trend [7]. - Asphalt: The 2601 contract fell 1.41% to 3007 yuan. December's production plan decreased, inventory was being reduced, and demand was in the off - season, with prices in a volatile state [7]. - Steel: The rb2601 closed at 3093 yuan/ton, and hc2601 at 3293 yuan/ton. Production and consumption decreased, and inventory continued to decline. The market was in a supply - and - demand double - weak pattern [7]. - Alumina: The ao2601 closed at 2720 yuan/ton. Environmental inspections affected the north, inventory increased slightly, and the market was sluggish [7]. - Shanghai Aluminum: The al2601 closed at 21500 yuan/ton. The macro - market sentiment improved, but demand was cautious. Supply was stable, and social inventory continued to decrease [7][8].

Report Summary Core View - On November 26, 2025, A-share major indexes showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.02%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.14%. The trading volume of the two markets slightly decreased by 28.8 billion yuan to 1.7833 trillion yuan [1]. - Various futures varieties also had different trends. For example, the CSI 300 Index trended stronger, while the coke and coking coal weighted indexes trended weaker [1][2]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On November 26, the CSI 300 Index closed at 4,517.63, up 27.22 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On November 26, the coke weighted index closed at 1,662.8, down 22.4; the coking coal weighted index closed at 1,124.9 yuan, down 10.4 [2][3]. - For coke, the fourth round of price increases has been implemented. The iron - water output decreased by 0.60 million tons to 2.3628 million tons, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 19 yuan/ton [4]. - For coking coal, the price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal is 1,550, equivalent to 1,330 on the futures market. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on ensuring the supply of thermal coal in 2026, weakening the futures market expectation. The mine capacity utilization rate has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, and the clean coal inventory of coal - washing plants has increased for three consecutive weeks [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the increase in new sugar supply and the decline in spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract trended slightly lower on November 26. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November is expected to increase by 18.9% year - on - year to 1.075 million tons. The US sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 9.319 million short tons [4]. Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, the Shanghai rubber futures trended slightly lower on November 26. Heavy rainfall in southern Thailand affected at least 13 million rai of rubber plantations, resulting in a loss of over 20,000 tons of rubber production. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 10 months increased by 5.8% year - on - year to 3.64 million tons [4][5]. Palm Oil - On November 26, the decline of palm oil futures prices slowed down, and the main contract P2601 closed up 0.96% at 8,440. From November 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 3.34% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and the production increased by 5.49% month - on - month [5]. Live Pigs - On November 26, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11,540 yuan/ton, up 1.1%. The inventory of breeding sows exceeds the normal level, the production efficiency has improved, and the number of newborn piglets remains high. The large - scale farms have a strong willingness to sell pigs at the end of the year, suppressing the upward movement of futures prices. The traditional bacon - making season has started, but the overall demand has not yet formed a scale [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher on November 26. Brazil's soybean exports in November are expected to reach 4.4 million tons. Domestically, the M2601 main contract closed at 3,015 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The oil - mill crushing volume remains high, and the soybean meal inventory is sufficient. Chinese importers have made large - scale purchases of US soybeans, and the downstream is cautious about stockpiling [5]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper trended slightly stronger, opening at 86,750 yuan/ton and closing at 86,590 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. The trading volume was 107,213 lots, and the open interest was 204,728 lots [5]. Cotton - On the night of November 26, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,645 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 2 lots compared with the previous day. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 26 was 6.07 - 6.1 yuan/kg [6]. Logs - On November 26, the Log 2601 contract opened at 764, with a minimum of 762, a maximum of 768.5, and closed at 765, with an increase of 336 lots in open interest. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 750 yuan/cubic meter. The log inventory has reached a three - month high [6][7][8]. Iron Ore - On November 26, the Iron Ore 2601 main contract closed up 0.19% at 797 yuan. The iron ore shipment volume has declined, the arrival volume has increased, and the port and steel - mill inventories have decreased. The iron - water output has declined again, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [8]. Asphalt - On November 26, the Asphalt 2601 main contract closed down 0.56% at 3,043 yuan. The asphalt production plan of local refineries in December has decreased, the inventory is being depleted, and the shipment volume has increased slightly. However, due to weather conditions, the downstream demand is limited, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [8]. Steel - On November 26, rb2601 closed at 3,099 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3,304 yuan/ton. The demand is facing seasonal decline and structural weakness. The real - estate industry continues to drag down the consumption of rebar, and the market trading may show a trend of "both volume and price decline" [8]. Alumina - On November 26, ao2601 closed at 2,720 yuan/ton. Recently, there has been some price - pressure in electrolytic aluminum tenders. The spot market trading was light, and the supply in the market may increase if futures warehouse receipts flow into the market, which may drive down the spot price [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On November 26, al2601 closed at 21,455 yuan/ton. The supply is stable, and the aluminum ingot supply is good. The social inventory may continue to decline slightly. The demand is average, and the aluminum price remains in a volatile range. The performance in the plate, strip, foil, and industrial materials sectors is relatively stable, while the demand for aluminum rods and poles is average [8].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 25, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.87% to 3870.02, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.53% to 12777.31, and the ChiNext Index up 1.77% to 2980.93. The trading volume reached 1812.1 billion yuan, an increase of 84.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4490.40, up 42.36 [1][2] - **Coke and Coking Coal Futures**: Coke weighted index closed at 1686.4, up 15.9; coking coal weighted index closed at 1127.1 yuan, down 4.5 [2][3] - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The 2601 - month contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures rose slightly, influenced by the rebound of US sugar and stable spot prices [4] - **Rubber Futures**: Shanghai rubber futures fell due to factors like increased inventory at Qingdao ports and decreased seasonal demand. As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory in Qingdao was 46.89 million tons, a 3.60% increase [4][5] - **Palm Oil Futures**: Palm oil prices continued to decline, with the main contract P2601 closing at 8360, down 1.48% [5] - **Live Pig Futures**: The LH2601 main contract closed at 11415 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [5] - **Soybean Meal Futures**: CBOT soybeans rose slightly. In the domestic market, the M2601 main contract closed at 3013 yuan/ton, up 0.07% [5] - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 86421 yuan/ton, up 0.65% [6] - **Cotton Futures**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13615 yuan/ton at night on November 25 [8] - **Iron Ore Futures**: The 2601 main contract of iron ore closed up 0.51% at 794 yuan [8] - **Asphalt Futures**: The 2601 main contract of asphalt closed up 1.19% at 3068 yuan [8] - **Log Futures**: The 2601 log contract opened at 766.5, closed at 764.5, and decreased 24 lots in positions [8] - **Steel Futures**: rb2601 closed at 3106 yuan/ton, hc2601 closed at 3309 yuan/ton. Steel prices showed a slightly stronger trend [9] - **Alumina Futures**: ao2601 closed at 2727 yuan/ton. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation [9] - **Shanghai Aluminum Futures**: al2601 closed at 21465 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is in a state of mild supply and demand [9] 2. Core Views - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke's fourth - round price increase has been implemented, and the demand from steel mills provides short - term support. Coking coal supply may increase in the short - term but has a contraction expectation in the long - term [4] - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: Influenced by factors such as the rebound of US sugar and stable spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar futures showed a slight upward trend [4] - **Rubber**: Rising inventory and decreased demand led to a decline in rubber futures prices [4][5] - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices continued to fall, with a significant decrease in export volume [5] - **Live Pig**: The live pig market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and attention should be paid to the changes in sow inventory and the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises [5] - **Soybean Meal**: In the international market, the situation of US soybean exports is mixed. In the domestic market, the supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and attention should be paid to South American weather and soybean imports [5][6] - **Shanghai Copper**: Macro factors and supply - demand relationships support copper prices, but there are also some risk factors [6] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is in a seasonal production - reduction trend, and the price is in a volatile state [8] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market has a weak supply - demand relationship, and the price is in a volatile state [8] - **Log**: There is no major contradiction in the log market's supply - demand relationship, and attention should be paid to factors such as spot prices and inventory changes [8][9] - **Steel**: Steel prices are showing a slightly stronger trend in the short - term, but the long - term supply - demand is in a balanced state [9] - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure [9] - **Shanghai Aluminum**: The aluminum market is in a state of mild supply and demand, and the price is in a range - bound state [9]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 24, 2025 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices rose slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05% to 3836.77, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to 12585.08, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.31% to 2929.04. The trading volume of the two markets was 1727.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 237.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - CSI 300: The index showed weak fluctuations, closing at 4448.05, a decrease of 5.56 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index fluctuated and closed at 1675.5, a rise of 1.0. Spot price increases have been implemented, industry profits have improved, and coke supply has increased. However, steel mill demand is weakening [2][4]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index remained weak, closing at 1129.6 yuan, a decrease of 14.9. Domestic coal supply is slowly recovering, but demand from coke enterprises and steel mills is weakening [3][4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - The 2601 contract stopped falling and rebounded. Brazil is expected to increase its sugarcane planting area in 2025, but the output is expected to decline slightly [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber showed a slight increase during the day but fell at night due to the increase in inventory at Qingdao Port. As of November 23, the total inventory in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, a 3.60% increase [4][6]. 2.4 Live Pigs - The LH2601 contract rose 0.44% to 11,400 yuan/ton. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the changes in the inventory of breeding sows and the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises [6]. 2.5 Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures fell on November 24. Domestically, the M2601 contract fell 0.03% to 3011 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to be loose, and attention should be paid to the weather in South American producing areas and soybean imports [6]. 2.6 Palm Oil - The P2601 contract fell 0.75%. As of November 21, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key areas was 667,100 tons, a 2.13% increase from the previous week and a 31.34% increase year - on - year [6]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - The main contract rose. The supply is tight, and new energy demand provides support, but the price fluctuates at a high level due to the game between multiple and short forces [6]. 2.8 Iron Ore - The 2601 contract rose 0.44% to 790.5 yuan. The price is in a volatile trend in the short term [6]. 2.9 Asphalt - The 2601 contract rose 0.82% to 3060 yuan. The supply is decreasing, the inventory is being depleted, but the downstream demand is limited, and the price is in a volatile trend [6]. 2.10 Logs - The 2601 contract showed certain fluctuations. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. The inventory has reached a three - month high, and attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, and inventory changes [7]. 2.11 Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,620 yuan/ton at night. The cotton inventory decreased by 5 lots. The machine - picked cotton purchase price in Xinjiang was 6.18 - 6.27 yuan/kg, and the machine - picking in Xinjiang is basically over [7]. 2.12 Steel - The rb2601 contract was reported at 3089 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract was reported at 3295 yuan/ton. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply - demand contradiction, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term [7]. 2.13 Alumina - The ao2601 contract was reported at 2736 yuan/ton. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the market trading is inactive [7]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - The al2601 contract was reported at 21,380 yuan/ton. The supply is normal, and the demand is mainly in a wait - and - see state [7].

Overall Market Performance - On November 21, 2025, A-share market slumped with Shanghai Composite Index down 2.45% to 3834.89, Shenzhen Component Index down 3.41% to 12538.07, and ChiNext Index down 4.02% to 2920.08. The trading volume reached 1965.7 billion yuan, up 257.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - CSI 300 Index closed at 4453.61 on November 21, down 111.34 from the previous day [2] Commodity Futures Coking Coal and Coke - On November 21, the weighted index of coke closed at 1658.8, down 17.2 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal closed at 1136.2 yuan, down 10.8 from the previous day [2][3] - Coke supply shrank due to low industry profits and weak production motivation of coke enterprises. Demand from steel mills was limited as terminal demand weakened. Coking coal supply slowly recovered with some mines resuming production, and Mongolian coal imports increased. However, coke enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm declined [4] Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures and options net short positions increased by 3,861 to 142,589 as of the week ending October 7. Zhengzhou sugar futures contract 2601 declined due to short - selling pressure on the night of November 21 [4] Rubber - Shanghai rubber futures declined on the night of November 21 due to short - selling pressure. As of November 21, natural rubber inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 79,463 tons to 78,675 tons, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 68,871 tons to 39,600 tons. 20 - grade rubber inventory increased by 302 tons to 53,827 tons, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 504 tons to 50,199 tons [4] Live Pigs - On November 21, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11,350 yuan/ton, down 0.79%. In October, the inventory of breeding sows decreased by 1.1% to 39.9 million, still above the reasonable target. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, with supply pressure from large - scale farms' concentrated sales and some support from increased consumption demand in winter [4][5] Soybean Meal - CBOT soybean futures rose 0.31% on November 21. US soybean exports faced competition from Brazil. In the domestic market, the M2601 main contract closed at 3012 yuan/ton on November 21, down 0.17%. Short - term supply was sufficient, and the market was under pressure due to abundant imports [5] Copper - The Shanghai copper market showed weak oscillation with decreasing positions. In the short term, it remained in high - level oscillation. In the long term, new demand from new energy and AI and rigid shortage of global copper ore supply may push up the copper price, but short - term fluctuations due to policy changes and capital withdrawal should be watched out for [5] Logs - On November 21, the log 2601 contract opened at 772, with a low of 768, a high of 774.5, and closed at 768.5, with an increase of 896 lots. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable at 750 yuan/cubic meter. In October, log imports decreased by 16.3% year - on - year [5][6] Iron Ore - On November 21, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed down 0.32% at 785.5 yuan. Iron ore shipments increased slightly, arrivals decreased, and port and steel mill inventories declined. Iron ore prices were in an oscillating trend in the short term [6] Asphalt - On November 21, the asphalt 2601 main contract closed down 0.46% at 3009 yuan. Asphalt supply continued to decline, inventory decreased, and shipments increased slightly. However, demand was limited by cold and snowy weather, and prices showed an oscillating trend in the short term [6] Cotton - On the night of November 21, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,595 yuan/ton, with inventory decreasing by 1259 lots. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 21 was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg [7] Steel - The steel market was suppressed by the low probability of Fed rate - cut in December and the lack of domestic policies. The economic work conference in December was a key event. The market was in a supply - demand re - balancing stage, with limited downward and upward space. Steel mills' winter storage demand would emerge in late December, but the scale might be smaller than last year [7] Alumina - Alumina raw material supply may gradually become sufficient as bauxite shipments from Guinea increased after the rainy season. Supply was relatively abundant, while demand was stable but weaker compared to supply [7] Aluminum - The cost of raw material alumina decreased, and smelters' profits were good, leading to high production enthusiasm. Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply would remain high. Demand was gradually entering the off - season, but spot market transactions improved slightly as aluminum prices declined [7]

Report Overview - The report provides a market analysis of various futures varieties on November 20, 2025, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, live pigs, soybean meal, palm oil, Shanghai copper, logs, iron ore, asphalt, cotton, steel, alumina, and Shanghai aluminum [1][2][3] Stock Index Futures - On November 20, A-share market indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.40% to 3931.05, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.76% to 12980.82, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.12% to 3042.34. The trading volume was 1708.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4564.95, down 23.34 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal Price Movement - On November 20, the coke weighted index closed at 1673.5, down 12.7, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 1140.6 yuan, down 38.0 [2][3] Market Analysis - Coke: After the fourth round of price increases, some coke enterprises are still in the red. The overall supply has decreased. Demand increased due to unexpected resumption of production in Hebei steel mills last week, but there is an expectation of seasonal decline in molten iron. The fifth round of price increases is temporarily on hold. - Coking coal: Supply has increased slightly but is limited by environmental protection and safety supervision. Although molten iron production rebounded unexpectedly last week, the profit rate of steel mills decreased. Downstream coking plants have higher inventory days than in previous years, and the mine auction failure rate is high [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by sufficient supply and lower spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell on November 20. From January - October 2025, China imported 100 million tons of syrup and white sugar premix, a year - on - year decrease of 963600 tons [4] Rubber - On November 20, Shanghai rubber declined slightly during the day due to the weakening prospect of a December interest rate cut in the US, but rose at night due to speculation on the weather in Thailand's rubber - producing areas. In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, with month - on - month increases of 2.5% and 3% and year - on - year increases of 12.1% and 8.8% [4][6] Live Pigs - On November 20, the LH2601 contract closed at 11440 yuan/ton, down 1.04%. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Although the decrease in temperature boosts some consumption, the demand recovery is slow due to the late Spring Festival and the impact of substitutes [6] Soybean Meal International Market - On November 20, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The US soybean export sales were at the lower end of the forecast range. As of November 13, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 71%, lower than 80% last year, and the estimated output is 1.767 billion tons [6] Domestic Market - On November 20, the M2601 contract closed at 3017 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is close to one million tons. China has purchased about one million tons of US soybeans [6] Palm Oil - On November 20, the palm oil futures P2601 contract closed at 8646, down 2.33%. From November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 828680 tons, a 14.1% decrease from the same period last month [6] Shanghai Copper - On November 20, the Shanghai Copper 2601 contract closed at 86130 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The macro - environment has a hawkish stance on interest rates, and the supply of copper concentrates is tight, while demand from emerging industries provides support [6] Logs - On November 20, the log 2601 contract closed at 772, with an increase of 1121 lots in positions. In October, log imports decreased by 16.3% year - on - year [6][8] Iron Ore - On November 20, the iron ore 2601 contract closed at 788.5 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally, but the price is in a volatile trend due to limited growth space for molten iron production [8] Asphalt - On November 20, the asphalt 2601 contract closed at 3058 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is being depleted, but the demand is limited by cold weather [8] Cotton - On November 20, the Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 13500 yuan/ton at night, and the inventory increased by 17 lots. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg [8] Steel - On November 20, rb2601 closed at 3050 yuan/ton, and hc2601 at 3267 yuan/ton. The steel market is in a multi - empty game situation, and the steel price is under short - term pressure due to the decline in raw material costs [8] Alumina - On November 20, the ao2601 contract closed at 2732 yuan/ton. The supply of bauxite is abundant, and the price is under pressure. The market trading volume is limited [8] Shanghai Aluminum - On November 20, the al2601 contract closed at 21570 yuan/ton. The metal market is in a volatile state. The supply of aluminum ingots is normal, and the social inventory is decreasing, while the demand shows a weakening trend [8]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 19, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market had mixed performance, with Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% at 3946.74, Shenzhen Component Index slightly down, and ChiNext Index up 0.25% at 3076.85. The trading volume of the two markets was 1725.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 200.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4588.29, up 20.10 [1][2] - **Coke and Coking Coal Futures**: Coke weighted index closed at 1679.7, down 21.7; coking coal weighted index closed at 1166.4 yuan, down 32.1. Coke has implemented four rounds of price increases, and coking profit has marginally recovered. Coking coal's seasonal demand is expected to weaken, and the coal price center has moved down [2][3][4] - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: Affected by the expected global sugar surplus of 260,000 tons in 2025/26, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined on November 19. China's sugar imports in October were 750,000 tons, up 39% year-on-year, and the cumulative imports from January to October were 3.9 million tons, up 14% [4] - **Rubber Futures**: Due to the flood risk in southern Thailand, the Shanghai rubber futures rose on November 19. As of November 16, the total inventory in Qingdao ports increased by 0.31 million tons to 452,600 tons, with the bonded area inventory down 1.76% [4] - **Palm Oil Futures**: On November 19, palm oil futures jumped due to the US biodiesel policy, with the main contract P2601 closing at 8852, up 1.65%. Market rumors suggest an increase in the RVO quantity in the final EPA plan [5] - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: The main Shanghai copper contract closed at 86080 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. Although the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was dampened, the tight supply at the mine end and the recovery of downstream demand supported the price [5] - **Cotton Futures**: The main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13500 yuan/ton at night on November 19. The cotton inventory decreased by 900 lots, and the machine - picked cotton purchase price in Xinjiang was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg [5] - **Iron Ore Futures**: The iron ore 2601 contract closed up 0.76% at 791.5 yuan. The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, but the steel mill profit decline limits the increase in iron ore price [5] - **Asphalt Futures**: The asphalt 2601 contract closed down 0.13% at 3045 yuan. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is in a volatile state [5] - **Log Futures**: The log 2601 contract opened at 784, closed at 775.5, with an increase of 1121 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable, and the import volume in October decreased by 16.3% year - on - year [5][6] - **Steel Futures**: The rb2601 and hc2601 contracts closed at 3070 yuan/ton and 3277 yuan/ton respectively. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the steel price may be adjusted narrowly due to weak demand in the off - season [6] - **Alumina Futures**: The ao2601 contract closed at 2740 yuan/ton. The supply is under pressure, and the market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectation, with the price in a weak and volatile pattern [7] - **Shanghai Aluminum Futures**: The al2601 contract closed at 21570 yuan/ton. The demand is moderate, the supply is sufficient, and the social inventory is decreasing slightly. Attention should be paid to the interest - rate cut expectation and geopolitical situation [7] 2. Core Views - The A - share market showed mixed performance on November 19, 2025, with a decrease in trading volume [1] - The prices of coke and coking coal futures were affected by factors such as supply - demand changes and policies, with coke prices rising and coking coal prices under pressure [2][3][4] - The sugar market is expected to have a surplus in 2025/26, which may suppress prices. Zhengzhou sugar futures were affected by international and domestic factors and declined [4] - The rubber market was supported by the weather risk in Thailand, but the inventory in Qingdao ports showed different trends [4] - The palm oil market was boosted by the US biodiesel policy, and the price rose [5] - The copper market was affected by the Fed's policy and supply - demand factors, with the price showing a certain degree of support [5] - The prices of other commodities such as cotton, iron ore, asphalt, logs, steel, alumina, and aluminum were also affected by their respective supply - demand fundamentals and market expectations [5][6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 18, 2025, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.16%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1926.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 15.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Different futures varieties showed various trends affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international market conditions, and policy changes [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On November 18, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined, and the Shanghai Composite Index had three consecutive negative daily K - lines. The CSI 300 Index remained weak, closing at 4568.19, down 29.86 from the previous day [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On November 18, the weighted coke index returned to a weak trend, closing at 1685.2, down 47.6. Supply continued to shrink due to coking losses, environmental inspections, and coal source shortages, while the increase in molten iron to 236 tons supported the rigid demand for coke [2][4]. - Coking Coal: On November 18, the weighted coking coal index was weak, closing at 1186.1 yuan, down 42.8. The resumption of production in some Shanxi coal mines led to a slight increase in coking coal output, and the passage of Mongolian coal at ports returned to a high level. The high - price procurement by downstream coking coal slowed down but was mainly for rigid demand, and coal mines had sufficient pre - sales and low inventories [3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by technical factors after a large short - term increase, ICE sugar oscillated and adjusted slightly lower on Monday. Constrained by factors such as the decline of ICE sugar and the reduction of spot prices, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract to oscillate and decline on Tuesday. After a large short - term decline, the contract oscillated and sorted out slightly lower at night. The ISO predicted a global sugar supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption only increasing by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. India's sugar production accelerated, and the new - season sugar output was expected to increase to 31.5 million tons, with possible exports of 2 - 2.5 million tons [4]. Rubber - Affected by technical factors after a large increase in the previous trading day, Shanghai rubber oscillated and sorted out slightly higher on Tuesday and oscillated slightly higher at night due to capital effects. In October 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 97.951 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. From January to October, the production increased by 1% year - on - year to 9.96421 billion pieces. In the first 10 months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [4]. Palm Oil - On November 18, palm oil futures continued to oscillate slightly at a low level, and the oscillation range was slightly higher than the previous day. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive K - line with upper and lower shadows, closing at 8708, up 0.32% from the previous day. Last week, the arrival of palm oil in China increased while the demand did not keep up, resulting in inventory accumulation. As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the domestic palm oil inventory was 574,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous week, and the contract volume was 43,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week [5]. Live Pigs - On November 18, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11,535 yuan/ton, down 1.37%. The inventory of breeding sows remained high, corresponding to an increase in live - pig slaughter from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the beginning of 2026. The concentrated release of large - weight live pigs from small and medium - sized farms and the resumption of the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises increased short - term supply pressure. The decrease in temperature would boost pork consumption to some extent, but the short - term pattern of strong supply and weak demand was difficult to reverse [5]. Soybean Meal - International market: On November 18, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. As of November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96%. As of November 13, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 71%, lower than 80% in the same period last year, and the estimated Brazilian soybean output was 176.7 million tons. - Domestic market: On November 18, the M2601 main contract closed at 3,041 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The short - term arrival of imported soybeans was sufficient, the domestic oil - mill operating rate increased to 66% this week, and the soybean meal inventory was close to one million tons and needed to be reduced [5]. Shanghai Copper - The US government ended the shutdown, and the Fed took a hawkish stance, with the probability of a rate cut in December falling below 50%. In October, China's manufacturing production slowed down. The supply side remained tight, and although traditional consumption areas were weak, strong demand in new - energy vehicles and power - grid construction provided bottom - line support for copper prices [5]. Cotton - On the night of November 18, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13,410 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 10 lots compared with the previous day. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 18 was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg. A 300,000 - spindle cotton - spinning project started in Jinghe County, Xinjiang [5]. Logs - On November 18, the Log 2601 contract opened at 792, with a minimum of 782.5, a maximum of 792.5, and closed at 785, with a daily reduction of 859 lots. The spot - market prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 740 yuan/cubic meter, and the prices of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 760 yuan/cubic meter. In October, the log import volume decreased by 16.3% year - on - year [5][6]. Iron Ore - On November 18, the Iron Ore 2601 main contract oscillated and rose, up 1.41%, closing at 792 yuan. The iron - ore shipment volume continued to increase slightly, the arrival volume decreased, and the molten - iron output stopped falling and increased. The short - term iron - ore price was in an oscillating trend [7]. Asphalt - On November 18, the Asphalt 2601 main contract oscillated and closed lower, down 0.36%, closing at 3,032 yuan. The asphalt supply continued to decrease, the inventory was being reduced, and the terminal demand remained weak due to cold and snowy weather, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [7]. Steel - On November 18, rb2601 closed at 3,090 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3,286 yuan/ton. The third round and fifth batch of central environmental - protection inspections started, which might reduce steel supply in the short term and support steel prices [7]. Alumina - On November 18, ao2601 closed at 2,780 yuan/ton. The spot price stopped falling, and downstream procurement accelerated. The market was in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the alumina price was in a weak oscillation [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - On November 18, al2601 closed at 21,465 yuan/ton. The end of the US government shutdown increased the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest - rate decision. The hawkish stance of the Fed put pressure on non - ferrous metals. The decline in aluminum prices led to a slight recovery in consumption, but high prices still restricted consumption, and the expected increase in aluminum - ingot supply in the off - season increased the pressure of inventory accumulation [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On November 17, 2025, the A-share market showed mixed performance with major indices mostly declining, and trading volume decreased. Different futures varieties had varying price movements influenced by factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy expectations [1][2][3][4][5] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On November 17, the three major A - share indices collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.46% to 3972.03, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.11% to 13202.00, and the ChiNext Index decreased 0.20% to 3105.20. The trading volume of the two markets was 1910.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index was weak, closing at 4598.05, a decline of 30.9 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - On November 17, the coke weighted index rebounded strongly, closing at 1743.3, up 33.2. The coking coal weighted index fluctuated and closed at 1234.4 yuan, up 15.4. The fourth round of coking price increase was fully implemented this week. Coking profit was still average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory decreased slightly. Coking coal mine output increased slightly, and total inventory rose slightly [2][3][4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Although US sugar stabilized and rebounded last Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract on November 17 did not follow. Constrained by the lower spot price, long - position liquidation pressured the futures price to decline. The Dutch Cooperative Bank predicted a 2.6 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar industry in the 2025/26 season, which may depress international prices until 2026 [4] Rubber - Thailand's weather warning of possible floods from November 18 - 22 led to short - position liquidation, pushing up the Shanghai rubber futures price on November 17. In the third quarter of 2025, the European replacement tire market sales decreased 0.6% year - on - year to 63.984 million units, and sales in the first three quarters were generally lower than in 2024 [4] Palm Oil - On November 17, palm oil futures fluctuated slightly at a low level. The main contract P2601 closed at 8680, up 0.42%. Shipping survey data showed a significant decrease in Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 15 compared to the previous month [4][5] Live Hogs - On November 17, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11695 yuan/ton, down 0.68%. The high inventory of breeding sows led to an increase in hog supply from Q4 2025 to early 2026. Demand was weak, and the short - term supply - demand imbalance was difficult to reverse [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on November 17, CBOT soybean futures reached the highest level since June 2024 due to improved demand prospects. US soybean export inspection and domestic soybean crushing data were positive. Domestically, the M2601 main contract closed at 3043 yuan/ton, down 1.58%. Short - term supply was sufficient, and the upward momentum of the soybean meal market may weaken [5] Shanghai Copper - Fed officials' hawkish remarks and the need for more economic data to measure the US economy led to a decline in the expectation of a December interest rate cut, weakening copper prices. Supply was tight, and demand in new energy and power grid construction provided support [5] Cotton - On the night of November 17, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13435 yuan/ton, with inventory decreasing by 5 lots. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 17 was 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. The US cotton harvest was expected to be good due to favorable weather [5] Iron Ore - On November 17, the 2601 main contract of iron ore rose 1.81% to 788.5 yuan. Iron ore shipments and domestic arrivals decreased. Although iron - water production increased, steel mill profits declined, and iron ore prices were expected to fluctuate [5] Asphalt - On November 17, the 2601 main contract of asphalt rose 0.13% to 3032 yuan. Supply and demand were both weak, with supply decreasing and demand affected by cold weather, and prices were expected to fluctuate [5][6] Logs - On November 17, the 2601 log contract had an opening price of 786, a low of 786, a high of 794, and a closing price of 789, with a reduction of 809 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. Inventory increased to a 5 - week high, and future price trends depend on multiple factors [6] Steel - On November 17, rb2601 closed at 3097 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3302 yuan/ton. Steel production cuts did not lower raw material prices, and steel costs remained high. Steel prices were expected to be slightly stronger in the short term but limited by the off - season demand [6] Alumina - On November 17, ao2601 closed at 2817 yuan/ton. Spot prices were close to the cost line, and production cuts were expected due to environmental protection. The trading atmosphere improved, but the futures price was in a low - level oscillation [6] Shanghai Aluminum - On November 17, al2601 closed at 21725 yuan/ton. The market's positive sentiment towards previous macro - policies cooled, and the probability of a December Fed interest rate cut decreased. Supply was stable, and demand was weak in November [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 14, 2025, the A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.93%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.82%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1958.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 83.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures varieties showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policy, and international market conditions [2][3][4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On November 14, the A-share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3990.49 points, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13216.03 points, and the ChiNext Index at 3111.51 points. The trading volume decreased by 83.9 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 300 Index adjusted on November 14, closing at 4628.14, a decrease of 73.93 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On November 14, the coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1700.6, a decrease of 16.3. The coking coal weighted index was also weak, closing at 1212.4 yuan, a decrease of 18.4 [2][3]. - The downstream acceptance of the fourth round of coke price increases was poor. Coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory decreased slightly, with downstream demand-based procurement and weak trading interest [4]. - Recently, Mongolian coal imports increased, and the number of customs clearances remained high. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, and spot auction transactions were normal with stable prices. Terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased slightly [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - India will allow sugar mills to export 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season, lower than the previous estimate of 2 million tons. In the second half of October, only 46.02% of sugarcane in the central and southern regions of Brazil was used for sugar production, and the rest was used for ethanol fuel production. Affected by the expected decline in supply from India and Brazil, the US sugar market rose on Friday [4]. - On the night of November 14, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract declined due to long - liquidation pressure. In the second half of October, sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil increased by 16.4% year - on - year to 2.068 million tons, and sugarcane crushing volume increased by 14.3% year - on - year to 31.108 million tons [4]. Rubber - Due to the large decline in the previous trading day, the Shanghai rubber market adjusted slightly on November 14. As of November 14, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 158138 tons, a decrease of 4022 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 108470 tons, a decrease of 10500 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 49695 tons, an increase of 1612 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 49695 tons, an increase of 1109 tons [4]. Live Pigs - On November 14, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72%. The number of fertile sows remained high, leading to an increase in live pig slaughter from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the beginning of 2026. The concentrated release of large - weight live pigs from small and medium - sized farms increased market supply. The slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises gradually recovered, increasing short - term supply pressure and suppressing futures prices [5]. - The demand for live pigs was weak. There was still about half a month until the traditional bacon - curing peak season. Alternative consumption was common, and consumer enthusiasm was low. The catering and tourism industries were weak, and terminal consumption lacked support. Slaughter enterprises had poor sales, and the fresh - meat sales rate declined. Some enterprises stored meat in cold storage, and the frozen - meat inventory rate increased slightly [5]. Soybean Meal - The USDA's November supply - demand report showed that the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in 2025 was 53.0 bushels, and the total output was 4.253 billion bushels, both lower than the September forecast and slightly lower than analysts' expectations. The unmet expectations led to short - term market selling, and the CBOT soybean futures were under pressure. The report maintained the soybean production expectations of Brazil at 175 million tons and Argentina at 48.5 million tons [5]. - On November 14, the M2601 main contract closed at 3092 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.68%. The domestic soybean meal inventory continued to decline and was below 1 million tons. The inventory pressure improved. The提货 volume increased slightly, and the livestock and poultry inventory was large. Soybean meal had a cost - performance advantage, but the soybean and soybean meal inventory was still high. The market expected the supply gap of imported soybeans to be filled, and the upward momentum of the soybean meal market might weaken [5]. Shanghai Copper - Fed officials expressed caution about further interest rate cuts before the release of important economic data, weakening the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut. China's economic operation in October was generally stable, and new development drivers continued to grow [5]. - The tight supply (such as the shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia) and weak demand were in a game. The COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate, while the LME inventory was at a low level. Copper prices were expected to fluctuate at a high level [5]. Cotton - On the night of November 14, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13445 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 221 lots compared with the previous trading day. On November 15, the purchase price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg. After the US government ended the shutdown, Fed officials had differences, and the expectation of a December interest rate cut decreased [5]. Iron Ore - On November 14, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed up 0.26% at 772.5 yuan. Iron ore shipments continued to decline, and domestic arrivals also decreased. Iron - water production stopped falling and increased. Steel mills continued to purchase iron ore as needed. Affected by the expected monetary easing from the central bank, iron ore prices fluctuated in the short term [5]. Asphalt - On November 14, the asphalt 2601 main contract closed up 0.1% at 3037 yuan. Asphalt supply continued to decline, and inventory decreased. Road construction projects were coming to an end, and shipments decreased significantly. Terminal demand was weak, and the market was in a situation of weak supply and demand. Asphalt prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. Logs - On November 14, the 2601 log contract opened at 778, with a low of 778, a high of 791, and closed at 788.5, with a daily reduction of 1618 lots. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter, both unchanged from the previous day. The inventory of logs continued to increase, reaching a four - week high. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6]. Steel - With the cooling and snow in the north, construction intensity decreased significantly, and seasonal demand declined. Although there was still some construction volume in the south, the procurement rhythm slowed down, and market transactions decreased. The rebar market was at a critical point of supply - demand contraction and inventory cycle conversion. Low inventory gave some resilience to prices, and improved macro - expectations provided bottom support [6]. - Terminal users' funds did not improve significantly, and rigid - demand replenishment was the main operation. Speculative demand almost disappeared. In some low - inventory areas, there were shortages of some specifications, supporting the resistance of local spot prices. In the short term, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the off - season was emerging [6]. Alumina - In the raw material sector, some domestic mines resumed production, and the rainy season in Guinea ended, alleviating the tight supply of bauxite. Currently, the operating capacity and production of alumina were high, and the spot price was low, which might affect smelter profits. Some high - cost enterprises might cut production, and the oversupply situation in the domestic market would gradually ease with production control [6]. - The electrolytic aluminum capacity was approaching the domestic ceiling, and the demand for alumina remained relatively stable. Overall, the alumina market might be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and relatively stable demand, and the oversupply situation might improve with production control [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - In the raw material sector, the price rebounded slightly but remained low. The spot price of aluminum was strong, and smelters had good profits and high production enthusiasm. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was approaching the industry limit, and the production rate was high. With good profits and high production, the domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum remained high [6]. - On the demand side, some downstream industries of aluminum products were transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, and the high aluminum price inhibited downstream purchases to some extent. The demand for electrolytic aluminum might slow down. Overall, the electrolytic aluminum market might be in a stage of stable supply and demand, and social inventory was accumulating slightly [6].