Report Summary 1. Market Performance on September 4, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market had a collective pullback. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25% to 3765.88, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.83% to 12118.70, and the ChiNext Index declined 4.25% to 2776.25. The trading volume reached 2544.3 billion yuan, an increase of 180.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4365.21, down 94.62 [1][2]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The coke weighted index closed at 1585.0, down 21.9. The coking coal weighted index closed at 1093.5 yuan, down 21.7 [3][4]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: Affected by the expected sufficient supply in major producing countries, the US sugar oscillated lower on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract was pressured by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot prices, and continued to fall at night [5]. - **Rubber**: Shanghai rubber had a narrow - range fluctuation. Natural rubber was strong while 20 - rubber was weak. Supported by the strong rainfall in the Thai production area and the firm spot price in Southeast Asia, Shanghai rubber oscillated higher at night. Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 7 months were 999,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures closed higher on September 4. The US soybean harvest will start in mid - to - late September. Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to be 6.75 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures price oscillated, with the M2601 contract closing at 3048 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.59% [6]. - **Live Hogs**: The live hog futures price oscillated weakly, with the LH2511 contract closing at 13365 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.37%. In September, the market supply is still under pressure, but the consumption is seasonally picking up [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil futures oscillated slightly. The main contract P2601 closed at 9390, up 0.23%. Malaysia's palm oil production in August is estimated to increase by 2.07% to 1.85 million tons [8]. - **Shanghai Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 79770 yuan/ton. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the cost supports the price. The domestic demand is expected to recover, but the export demand may decline [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2601 contract rose 1.67% to 791.5 yuan. The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded, and the demand is slightly weak, but the terminal demand in the peak season provides support [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt 2510 contract fell 2.14% to 3468 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt continues to decline, and the short - term price will oscillate [10]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13960 yuan/ton at night. The cotton inventory decreased by 167 lots [10]. - **Log**: The 2511 log contract opened at 797, closed at 797, with an increase of 317 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The external price increase drives the internal price up, and the market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [10][12]. - **Steel**: The rb2601 contract closed at 3117 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3313 yuan/ton. The demand for steel is unstable, and the short - term price will fluctuate slightly [12]. - **Alumina**: The ao2601 contract closed at 2980 yuan/ton. The supply is becoming more abundant, and the cost support is weakening [13]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: The al2510 contract closed at 20605 yuan/ton. The high - level oscillation of the main contract may continue, and the market is in a state of "macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression" [13]. 2. Core Views - The A - share market had a significant pullback on September 4, with increased trading volume [1]. - The prices of coke and coking coal are under pressure. The coking coal inventory is increasing, and the coke price increase is not implemented while some areas propose price cuts [5]. - The sugar market is affected by the expected sufficient supply, and the price is under pressure [5]. - The rubber market is supported by the supply - side situation in Southeast Asia [6]. - The soybean meal price oscillates due to sufficient domestic supply and potential supply from South America [6][7]. - The live hog market has supply pressure in the short term, but the consumption is seasonally improving [7]. - The palm oil market shows a slight upward trend, and the production in Malaysia is estimated to increase [8]. - The Shanghai copper price is affected by supply, cost, demand, and external factors such as US economic data [9]. - The iron ore price oscillates due to the change in supply - demand relationship and the support from the peak - season demand [9]. - The asphalt price oscillates with the decline of capacity utilization rate and general terminal demand [10]. - The log market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [12]. - The steel price has limited fluctuations, and the demand recovery will determine the future trend [12]. - The alumina price is under pressure due to increased supply and weakened cost support [13]. - The Shanghai aluminum price is in a balanced state between macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression [13]. 3. Factors Affecting Different Commodities Coke and Coking Coal - **Coke**: The eighth - round price increase is not implemented, and some areas propose the first - round price cut. The iron water production is 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 0.62 million tons. The coal mine inventory has no pressure, and the total coking coal inventory is increasing [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 refined coal is 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. The power consumption in China accounts for 30% of the terminal energy consumption, and is expected to exceed 40% by 2035. The mine inventory is increasing, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has declined for 3 consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for 3 consecutive months [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The expected sufficient supply in major producing countries and the decline of US sugar and spot prices affect the price of Zhengzhou sugar [5]. Rubber - The strong rainfall in the Thai production area and the firm spot price in Southeast Asia support the price of Shanghai rubber [6]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, the US soybean harvest is approaching, and Brazil's exports are expected to increase. In the domestic market, the sufficient supply of imported soybeans, the potential supply from South America, and the increase of soybean meal inventory affect the price [6][7]. Live Hogs - The supply is under pressure in September, but the consumption is seasonally picking up due to the start of the school term [7]. Palm Oil - The production increase in Malaysia affects the price of palm oil [8]. Shanghai Copper - **Supply**: The domestic copper concentrate port inventory is low, and the refined copper production is expected to decline slightly. - **Cost**: The TC fee is negative, and the raw material price increase supports the copper price. - **Demand**: The export demand may decline due to US tariffs, but the domestic demand is expected to recover. - **External Factor**: The US non - farm payroll data on September 5 will affect the copper price [9]. Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded to the annual high, and the arrival volume has increased. The iron water production has decreased slightly, but the peak - season demand provides support [9]. Asphalt - The capacity utilization rate of asphalt continues to decline, and the terminal demand is general [10]. Log - The external price increase drives the internal price up, and the market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [12]. Steel - The demand for steel is unstable during the off - peak to peak - season transition. The cost changes little, and the production may remain high [12]. Alumina - The supply is increasing due to the resumption of production lines and the stable output of new capacity. The cost support is weakening due to the decline of bauxite price [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - The market is in a state of "macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression", and the US non - farm payroll data on September 5 will affect the market sentiment [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 3, 2025, the A - share market showed mixed trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.95%. The trading volume of the two markets significantly decreased by 510.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - Various futures products presented different price trends and influencing factors, including supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and international market conditions [4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On September 3, the A - share market's three major indexes showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3813.56, down 1.16%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12472.00, down 0.65%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2899.37, up 0.95%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.3641 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 510.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index continued to adjust on September 3, closing at 4459.83, a decrease of 30.62 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 3, the coke weighted index showed a weak oscillation, closing at 1597.7, a decrease of 9.6 from the previous day [2]. - On September 3, the coking coal weighted index was weak, closing at 1104.7 yuan, a decrease of 13.9 from the previous day [3]. - For coke, the fifth round of price increase was implemented, but steel mills' high profitability led to weak production - reduction willingness. The daily average production of long - process hot metal decreased slightly to 240.71 million tons last week. The demand support for coke increased slightly. The trading logic switched to the dual - wheel drive of macro - industrial policies and fundamentals [4]. - For coking coal, the supply from the Sino - Mongolian border decreased slightly, port inventories decreased, and the overall supply narrowed. The demand support remained, and the inventory accumulation situation improved [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as sufficient rainfall in India and Thailand and Brazilian sugar mills' preference for sugar production, the US sugar price oscillated downward on Tuesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract oscillated downward on Wednesday under the influence of the decline in US sugar prices and spot price cuts. As of the end of August, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales were 5.7563 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 299,700 tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 89.04%, a year - on - year increase of 0.62 percentage points [4]. Rubber - Shanghai rubber showed a narrow - range oscillation on Wednesday and closed slightly lower due to the decline in the stock market. Affected by factors such as the decline in crude oil prices and the significant decline in global natural rubber consumption in July predicted by the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, it oscillated downward at night. In July 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, an increase of 7.9% from the previous month; consumption was expected to decrease by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous month [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 3, CBOT soybean futures were weak. As of August 31, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. Domestically, on September 3, soybean meal futures oscillated. The M2601 main contract closed at 3066 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The high - capacity utilization rate of imported soybeans led to an increase in soybean meal inventory to 1.063 million tons. The price oscillated, and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports should be focused on [6]. Live Pigs - On September 3, live pig futures prices showed a weak oscillation. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13,550 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. In September, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig enterprises increased month - on - month, but the terminal demand showed signs of slow recovery. In the medium - to - long - term, the inventory of fertile sows in July was 40.42 million, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter was large. In the short - term, live pigs may oscillate weakly in a range [7]. Palm Oil - On September 3, palm oil futures continued to oscillate slightly. The main contract P2601 closed with a doji - like candlestick with an upper shadow, at 9468 yuan, down 0.57% from the previous day. It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 was 2.2 million tons, an increase of 4.06% from July; production was 1.86 million tons, an increase of 2.5% from July; exports were 1.45 million tons, an increase of 10.7% from July [7]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper was actively traded. After opening, the price oscillated around the previous day's settlement price. In the morning, the bulls pushed the price up, but after reaching the daily high, the bears forced the price down. It was affected by factors such as the rise of precious metals and the possible Fed rate cut in September. The market was still cautious [8]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,965 yuan/ton. On September 3, the base - price quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was at least 900 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 135 lots compared to the previous day [8]. Logs - On September 3, the 2511 log contract opened at 810.5, with a low of 796.5, a high of 810.5, and closed at 798.5, with an increase of 2557 lots in positions. The futures price broke below the 60 - day moving average of 812, and the pressure at the 800 mark should be noted. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The increase in foreign - market quotes drove up the domestic futures price [8][9]. Iron Ore - On September 3, the 2601 main contract of iron ore oscillated and closed up 0.71%, at 777 yuan. The global iron ore shipment returned to the highest level of the year, the arrival volume increased month - on - month, and the hot - metal production decreased slightly. The short - term price was in an oscillating trend [10]. Asphalt - On September 3, the 2510 main contract of asphalt oscillated and closed down 0.36%, at 3551 yuan. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of asphalt continued to decline month - on - month, inventory reduction was slow, and the shipment volume increased slightly. With the arrival of the peak - demand season, the demand in both southern and northern markets is expected to increase. In the short - term, the price will oscillate [10]. Steel - On September 3, rb2601 closed at 3106 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3299 yuan/ton. The short - term demand improvement was limited, the trading of low - price resources was acceptable, but that of high - price resources was poor. The demand in the peak season of September remains to be verified. Most steel mills had small profits, and the blast furnaces in Tangshan will resume production in the second half of the week. The steel production may remain at a high level. In the short - term, steel prices may oscillate narrowly [10]. Alumina - On September 3, ao2601 closed at 2992 yuan/ton. The expectation of anti - involution policies weakened, and the market sentiment returned to be dominated by fundamentals. The short - term supply of imported bauxite was tight, but the new production capacity was expected to be continuously put into use, and the supply pressure was prominent. The increasing number of exchange - registered warehouse receipts suppressed the futures price [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 3, al2510 closed at 20,710 yuan/ton. The expectation of the Fed rate cut and China's policy support created a positive atmosphere, which was expected to boost aluminum consumption. However, it would take time for the policy to be transmitted to actual consumption. In the traditional peak season of September, aluminum prices were generally likely to rise but faced top - end pressure [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 2, the A-share market and multiple futures varieties showed diverse trends, influenced by factors such as market supply - demand, policy restrictions, and international market conditions [1][2][3][4][5][7][8][9][11][12] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 2, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% to 3858.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.14% to 12553.84 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 2.85% to 2872.22 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2875 billion yuan, an increase of 125 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index also adjusted downward, closing at 4490.45, a decrease of 33.26 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On September 2, the weighted coke index showed weak consolidation, closing at 1599.6, a decrease of 6.9. There is a temporary supply contraction due to upcoming northern regional restrictions, while steel mills also face restrictions, and cost support is weakening [2][4] - Coking Coal: On September 2, the weighted coking coal index fluctuated weakly, closing at 1110.9 yuan, a decrease of 9.2. Some mines in major coal - producing areas have suspended production, and downstream enterprises will face restrictions, resulting in weak supply and demand [3][4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the reduction in spot prices and short - selling pressure, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined on September 2 and continued to fall slightly at night. India will allow unrestricted use of sugarcane juice, syrup, and molasses for ethanol production in the new season [4] Rubber - Shanghai rubber showed a narrow - range fluctuation on September 2 and closed slightly higher. Boosted by rising crude oil prices, it rose slightly at night. As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.4 million tons, a decline of 0.6% [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 2, CBOT soybean futures were weak. The US soybean harvest will start in mid - to - late September, and Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to reach a record 1.782 billion tons, a 5.6% increase year - on - year. Domestically, on September 2, soybean meal futures fluctuated. The M2601 contract closed at 3050 yuan/ton, a 0.13% decrease. High imports and high processing volumes have led to sufficient supply, and the price is under pressure [5] Live Hogs - On September 2, live hog futures fluctuated weakly. The LH2511 contract closed at 13595 yuan/ton, a 0.22% decrease. In September, supply is sufficient, and some areas face disease risks. Although there is a recovery in terminal demand due to the start of the school season, the support for prices is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is high [7] Palm Oil - On September 2, palm oil futures continued a slight rebound but lacked upward momentum. The main contract P2601 closed at 9422, a 0.4% increase. Malaysia's August palm oil exports increased by 30.53% year - on - year, while production decreased by 2.65% [8] Shanghai Copper - Positive macro factors and supply - tightening expectations will support copper prices. With low inventory and high premiums in China, and the approaching peak consumption season, demand is expected to increase. However, high prices may suppress some purchasing intentions [8] Cotton - On the night of September 2, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14045 yuan/ton. The base - price quotation at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was at least 900 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased by 189 lots [9] Iron Ore - On September 2, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and closed up 0.06%. Global shipments have reached a high for the year, and arrivals have increased. Short - term prices are in a fluctuating trend due to production cuts in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region [9] Asphalt - On September 2, the main contract of asphalt 2510 fluctuated and rose 1.17%, closing at 3551 yuan. The capacity utilization rate has decreased, inventory reduction is slow, and with the approaching peak demand season, prices are expected to fluctuate [9] Logs - On September 2, the log futures contract 2511 opened at 820, closed at 810.5, and increased in positions by 755 lots. The price broke below the 60 - day moving average. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and attention should be paid to factors such as peak - season prices, imports, and inventory [9][10][11] Steel Products - On September 2, rb2601 closed at 3117 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3298 yuan/ton. The market lacks strong macro - drivers, and the fundamentals are weak, which may continue to suppress prices [11] Alumina - On September 2, ao2601 closed at 3022 yuan/ton. Some domestic enterprises are under maintenance, and production and operating rates have slightly declined, but the supply is still relatively loose, and the market may continue to be weak [11] Shanghai Aluminum - On September 2, al2510 closed at 20720 yuan/ton. Macro sentiment is favorable, but the peak - season expectations have not been realized. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is in a range - bound trend [12]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on September 1, 2025 - A - shares opened September with gains, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.46% to 3875.53, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.05% to 12828.95, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.29% to 2956.37. The trading volume of the two markets was 2750 billion yuan, a decrease of 48.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The CSI 300 Index remained strong, closing at 4523.71, up 26.95 [2] 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1 Energy and Chemical Futures - The coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1597.5, down 57.1 [3] - The coking coal weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1117.2 yuan, down 37.5 [4] - The palm oil futures rebounded after stopping the decline, with the main contract P2601 closing at 9384, up 0.73%. As of August 29, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 610,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons or 4.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 16,500 tons or 2.77% [8] - The asphalt 2510 main contract oscillated and closed up 1% at 3540 yuan. Last week, the asphalt capacity utilization rate continued to decline month - on - month, inventory reduction was slow, and shipments increased slightly [9] 2.2 Agricultural Futures - The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract oscillated slightly higher. Large speculators increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 2224 lots to 132,813 lots as of August 26 [5] - The Shanghai rubber oscillated. Affected by the planned zero - tariff rubber trade via the Mekong River channel between China and Thailand in September and other factors, the first pilot project will start in September 2025, with an expected increase in export volume [6] - The CBOT soybean futures were closed for the Labor Day holiday. The domestic soybean meal futures oscillated, with the M2601 main contract closing at 3054 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure [7] - The live hog futures oscillated, with the LH2511 main contract closing at 13,625 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The terminal demand is showing signs of recovery, but the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is large [7] - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14,085 yuan/ton at night. The cotton inventory decreased by 194 lots, and some areas in Xinjiang began manual harvesting [9] 2.3 Metal Futures - The Shanghai copper price was driven up. The domestic inventory decline provided support, and the Yangshan copper premium reached a new high since June 5 [8] - The iron ore 2601 main contract oscillated and fell 2.67% to 766 yuan. The global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased last week, and the market sentiment weakened [9] - The log 2511 contract opened at 820, closed at 818.5, and decreased positions by 353 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat, and the external price increase drove up the domestic futures price [9][10] - The rebar rb2601 closed at 3115 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil hc2601 closed at 3303 yuan/ton. The rebar market was weak, with increasing supply pressure and uncertain demand improvement [10] - The alumina ao2601 closed at 3008 yuan/ton. The ore price has support, but the supply - demand balance is slightly in surplus [11] - The Shanghai aluminum al2510 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton. The aluminum price remained firm under the background of expected interest rate cuts and demand recovery [11] 3. Influencing Factors and Outlook - For coke and coking coal, factors such as production restrictions in coking plants, iron water production, and inventory changes affect prices [5] - For sugar, the change in large speculators' positions and the trend of US sugar prices are important factors [5] - For rubber, the zero - tariff trade policy between China and Thailand is a major positive factor [6] - For soybean meal, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports are the focus [7] - For live hogs, the supply and demand situation in the fourth quarter and the market demand are key points [7] - For copper, US non - farm data and China's August PMI data will affect the price trend [8] - For iron ore, the short - term market is affected by production cuts in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region [9] - For asphalt, the demand in the peak season is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate in the short term [9] - For log, the price is affected by external prices, supply - demand relationship, and market sentiment [10] - For rebar, the supply - demand contradiction and cost factors affect the price, and it will continue to oscillate to find the bottom [10] - For alumina, factors such as ore mining, cost, and inventory affect the price [11] - For aluminum, the Fed's interest rate decision and demand improvement are important factors [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 29, A-share stock indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.99%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.23%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2798.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 172.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index was strong on that day, closing at 4496.76, a rise of 32.98 [1][2]. - The weighted index of coke trended weakly on September 29, closing at 1643.0, a decrease of 15.4. The weighted index of coking coal was weakly consolidated, closing at 1149.0 yuan, an increase of 0.6 [3][4]. - The price of US sugar oscillated slightly lower on September 29. Zhengzhou sugar futures prices oscillated slightly higher at night due to bargain - hunting after a large short - term decline. The supply gap of sugar in the 2025/26 season is expected to narrow significantly [5]. - The rubber futures price oscillated slightly lower on September 29 due to the decline in crude oil prices [6]. - The soybean meal futures price may continue to oscillate and adjust, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. The focus is on the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports [7]. - The live pig futures price may run weakly and oscillate. The focus is on the slaughter rhythm and market demand [8]. - The Shanghai copper futures price will remain at a high level, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut path and trade situation may affect the market [9]. - The iron ore futures price is in an oscillating trend in the short term [9]. - The asphalt futures price will oscillate in the short term [10]. - The steel price will be under pressure and show an oscillating bottom - seeking trend, and the focus is on the performance of peak - season demand [12]. - The alumina industry is expected to gradually recover with the arrival of the traditional peak season [12]. - The electrolytic aluminum industry has positive expectations, with supply increasing slightly and demand gradually recovering [13]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On September 29, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3857.93, up 0.37%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12696.15, up 0.99%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2890.13, up 2.23%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2798.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 172.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 4496.76 on September 29, a rise of 32.98 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 29, the weighted index of coke closed at 1643.0, a decrease of 15.4; the weighted index of coking coal closed at 1149.0 yuan, an increase of 0.6 [3][4]. - Coke: Mainstream coke enterprises proposed the eighth round of price increase. The supply increased, and the demand was affected by end - of - month production restrictions. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 55 yuan/ton [5]. - Coking coal: Some domestic mines had production disruptions, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance decreased slightly. The downstream demand will be restricted by end - of - month production restrictions [5]. Sugar - In the first half of August, the sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil increased by 15.96% year - on - year to 3620000 tons. The supply gap in the 2025/26 season is expected to narrow significantly to 231000 tons from 4.88 million tons this year [5]. Rubber - On September 29, the rubber futures price oscillated slightly lower due to the decline in crude oil prices. As of August 29, the inventory and warehouse receipts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange changed [6]. Soybean Meal - The international soybean futures price rose on August 29, while the domestic soybean meal futures price was weakly oscillating. The domestic supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The price may continue to oscillate and adjust [7]. Live Pig - On August 29, the live pig futures price oscillated weakly. The demand showed signs of slow recovery, but the supply pressure in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year was still large [8]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper futures price will remain at a high level. The domestic supply of copper concentrates is relatively tight, and the demand is expected to be good in the peak season. However, the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut path and trade situation may affect the market [9]. Iron Ore - On August 29, the iron ore 2601 main contract oscillated and closed up, with a gain of 0.77% and a closing price of 787.5 yuan. The global shipment and arrival volume decreased last week, and the price was in an oscillating trend in the short term [9]. Asphalt - On August 29, the asphalt 2510 main contract oscillated and closed up, with a gain of 0.17% and a closing price of 3507 yuan. The production capacity utilization rate decreased, and the price will oscillate in the short term [10]. Steel - The steel price is under pressure due to weak supply and demand, but the cost increase may limit the downward space. It will show an oscillating bottom - seeking trend, and the focus is on the peak - season demand [12]. Alumina - The supply of bauxite will gradually decrease, and the domestic supply of alumina may increase slightly. The demand is stable, and the industry is expected to recover with the arrival of the peak season [12]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum will increase slightly, and the demand will gradually recover with the arrival of the peak season. The industry has positive expectations [13].

Variety Views - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 28, A-share major indices strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.14% to 3843.60, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.25% to 12571.37, the ChiNext Index rose 3.82% to 2827.17, and the STAR 50 Index rose 7.23% to 1364.60. The trading volume of the two markets was 2970.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 194.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index fluctuated widely, closing at 4463.78, up 77.66 [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: On August 28, the coke weighted index weakened, closing at 1672.5, down 8.0. The coking coal weighted index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1170.9 yuan, up 11.2 [1][2]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: The US sugar fluctuated narrowly on Wednesday. Affected by weak demand and lower spot quotes, the long positions of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell on Thursday. At night, it continued to decline slightly under short - selling pressure. As of August 27, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 72, up from 70 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 2.7221 million tons, down from 2.9169 million tons the previous week [3]. - **Rubber**: The Thai Meteorological Department warned of heavy rain from August 28 to September 3, which may cause floods. Toyota's auto production and sales in July reached a record high. Affected by these factors, Southeast Asian spot quotes rose, and Shanghai rubber rose on Thursday but fell slightly at night under short - selling pressure. From January to July 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber were 889,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: Internationally, on August 28, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. The US Department of Agriculture reported that in the week ending August 21, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current market year decreased by 189,200 tons, in line with market expectations, and the net export sales of next - year soybeans were 1.3726 million tons, higher than expected. The US soybeans are growing well, and the probability of weather speculation this year is decreasing. Domestically, on August 28, soybean meal futures weakened. The M2601 main contract closed at 3039 yuan/ton, down 0.2%. Currently, soybean crushing volume is high, and the inventory is increasing. The price of soybean meal is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [4][5]. - **Live Pigs**: On August 28, live pig futures prices weakened. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13,590 yuan/ton, down 1.13%. There are signs of slow recovery in demand during the back - to - school season, but the support for pig prices is limited. The supply of suitable - weight pigs is sufficient, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year remains high [5]. - **Palm Oil**: On August 28, palm oil futures declined, breaking through the previous high - level range. The main contract P2601 closed at 9414, down 0.91%. On August 27, the CNF quotes for 24 - degree palm oil imports for September and October shipments decreased by 1 - 5 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the landed duty - paid costs in South China decreased by 50 - 80 yuan/ton week - on - week [6]. - **Shanghai Copper**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has been digested. LME copper inventory has accumulated slightly, and domestic refined copper social inventory is still at a low level. The spot processing fee for copper concentrate remains low, and the smelting end is performing well. The demand side is weak, and Shanghai copper continues to fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Logs**: On August 28, the 2511 contract of logs opened at 815, with a low of 810, a high of 825, and closed at 821.5, with an increase of 363 lots in positions. The 60 - day moving average provides support at 810 and resistance at 825. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The increase in foreign quotes drove up the domestic futures price. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the spot trading is weak [7]. - **Cotton**: On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,270 yuan/ton. On August 29, the minimum basis quote at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market was 900 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 139 lots compared with the previous trading day [7]. - **Steel**: On August 28, rb2601 closed at 3205 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3372 yuan/ton. From late August to early September, northern steel mills and coke enterprises will implement temporary environmental protection restrictions, and demand is expected to improve in September. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited upside and downside [7]. - **Alumina**: On August 28, ao2601 closed at 3063 yuan/ton. Alumina inventory has been steadily accumulating, with a weekly accumulation of 5 - 7 million tons for four consecutive weeks. The supply and demand of the alumina market are both at a high level and relatively stable. Without a significant reduction in supply, the oversupply situation will continue [9]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: On August 28, al2510 closed at 20,750 yuan/ton. The supply is stable, the inventory is moderate, and the cost support is strong. The demand is stable, and the price is expected to remain stable [9]. Influencing Factors - **Coke**: Spot prices have started the eighth round of increases, and some northern coke enterprises have started production restrictions. However, due to the rapid decline in blast furnace profits, it is difficult for coke prices to continue to rise. The supply - demand gap still exists [3]. - **Coking Coal**: A coal mine accident in Fujian has raised concerns about increased safety supervision. Mine supply has recovered this week, and the operating rate of coal washing plants has declined slightly. Upstream inventory has increased again, and downstream inventory has decreased [3].

Variety Views - On August 27, A-share's three major indexes rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.76% to 3,800.35, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.43% to 12,295.07, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.69% to 2,723.20. The trading volume of the two markets exceeded 3 trillion for the third time, reaching 3.1656 trillion, a significant increase of 486.5 billion from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index adjusted on August 27, closing at 4,386.13, a decrease of 66.46 [1]. - On August 27, the weighted coke index remained weak, closing at 1,669.4, a decline of 45.9 [1]. - On August 27, the weighted coking coal index fluctuated weakly, closing at 1,149.0 yuan, a decrease of 45.8 [2]. - Affected by Conab's reduction of Brazil's sugar production forecast, ICE sugar futures rose slightly on Tuesday. However, due to weak consumption and lower spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fell slightly on Wednesday and continued to decline slightly at night [3]. - Affected by falling crude oil prices and a sharp stock market decline, Shanghai rubber futures fell on Wednesday. However, heavy rain in rubber - producing areas due to a typhoon limited the decline. At night, it fluctuated and closed slightly lower [4]. - On August 27, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. With favorable growing conditions in the US, the probability of weather speculation this year has decreased significantly, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, the M2601 contract closed at 3,045 yuan/ton on August 27, down 1.17%. High soybean crushing volume, increased inventory, and weakening cost support led to a weakening trend in soybean meal prices [5][6]. - On August 27, the LH2511 live - hog contract closed at 13,745 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. At the supply end, some pig farms have completed their monthly sales plans, but the supply of suitable - weight pigs is still sufficient. At the demand end, with the approaching of the school season and the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, consumption is expected to improve, but the actual recovery is restricted by factors such as consumer willingness and the economic environment [6]. - On August 27, palm oil futures maintained a high - level and narrow - range oscillation. The P2601 contract closed at 9,500. According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 were 933,437 tons, a 36.41% increase from the same period last month [7]. - Trump's dismissal of Fed governor Cook raised concerns about the Fed's independence, strengthening the US dollar and suppressing copper demand. However, the tight supply of copper concentrates and strong demand in the new energy sector supported Shanghai copper prices [7]. - On Wednesday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14,095 yuan/ton. On August 28, the basis price at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was at least 900 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 118 lots [7]. - On August 27, the log 2511 contract opened at 821.5, with a low of 813.5, a high of 825.5, and closed at 814.5, with an increase of 1,473 lots in positions. The 60 - day moving average provided support at 813 and resistance at 827. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. Higher overseas prices drove up domestic futures prices. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and spot trading is weak [8]. - On August 27, the rb2510 steel rebar contract closed at 3,111 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3,349 yuan/ton. There is still pressure in the spot market, and strong raw material prices provide cost support. The steel market lacks upward momentum in the short term and is likely to continue narrow - range oscillation [8]. - On August 27, the ao2601 alumina contract closed at 3,046 yuan/ton. High inventories of upstream manufacturers led to an influx of supply, highlighting a loose supply - demand situation. Weak downstream demand forced prices to return to a lower level [9][10]. - On August 27, the al2510 Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 20,810 yuan/ton. Some enterprises are stocking up for the peak season, but with the rebound of aluminum prices, terminal shipments and spot purchases have decreased. In the traditional off - season, demand is weak, and aluminum ingots are accumulating, suppressing spot premiums [10]. Impact Factors Coke and Coking Coal - In the coke market, port spot prices rose, with Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at 1,490 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. Many coke enterprises proposed an eighth price increase, but steel mills have not responded. Although profits have improved and production enthusiasm is high, environmental protection restrictions due to the parade have led to a decline in production. At the demand end, steel mills' production restrictions are concentrated at the end of the month, and the demand for coke is stable, but raw material arrivals are insufficient in some areas [3]. - In the coking coal market, the price of main coking coal in Luliang decreased by 25 yuan to 335 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market is strong, with some prices rising. Supply is unstable, auctions show mixed results, and mines are reluctant to lower prices due to low inventories and expected coke price increases [3]. Sugar - Conab reduced Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production forecast by 3.1% to 44.5 million tons compared with the April forecast. However, production is still expected to increase by 0.8% compared with the previous year [4]. Rubber - Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 7 months were 2.572 million tons, a 9.3% year - on - year increase [4]. Soybean Meal - The US soybean growing conditions are good, and the probability of weather - related speculation has decreased, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, high soybean crushing volume has led to an increase in soybean meal inventory, and weakening cost support has reduced mills' motivation to support prices [6]. Aluminum - Some domestic aluminum enterprises are stocking up for the peak season, and the downstream operating rate has increased slightly. However, with the rebound of aluminum prices, terminal shipments and spot purchases have decreased. In the traditional off - season, demand is weak, and aluminum ingots are accumulating, suppressing spot premiums [10].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on August 26, 2025 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39% to 3868.38, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.26% to 12473.17, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.75% to 2742.13. The trading volume of the two markets was 2679 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 462.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Indexes: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4452.59, down 16.63 [2]. - Futures: The weighted index of coke closed at 1679.6, down 40.8; the weighted index of coking coal closed at 1155.5 yuan, down 37.7 [3][4]. 2. Core Views on Different Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The 7 - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented this week, and the coking profit has improved. However, some coke enterprises may face short - term production restrictions due to the military parade, and there is a regional shortage of coke resources. The demand for coke is currently high but may decline during the military parade [5]. - Coking coal: More mines have resumed production this week, and the import volume of Mongolian coal is relatively high. Although the theoretical import profit of sea - borne coal is narrowing, the short - term supply is still abundant [5]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Asian high rainfall is beneficial to sugarcane growth, which suppresses the price of US sugar. The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined significantly on August 26 due to the fall of US sugar and the reduction of spot prices [5]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber fluctuated widely, rising in the morning due to the decline of rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and heavy rainfall in Thailand, but falling in the afternoon due to the poor financial reports of German car companies and concerns about future rubber demand [6]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - In the international market, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated on August 26, with good crop growth conditions. In the domestic market, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and the inventory of soybean meal is increasing. The price of soybean meal is in a state of shock, and the future trend depends on Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports [9]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On August 26, the LH2511 contract closed down 0.36%. The supply of suitable pigs is sufficient, and the terminal consumption may improve with the approaching of the school season and holidays, but the actual consumption recovery is restricted by many factors. The price of live pigs may fluctuate widely [9]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On August 26, palm oil futures continued to fluctuate in a high - level range. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9% compared with the same period last month. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased week - on - week [10]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - Fed Chairman Powell's dovish statement has increased the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to copper prices. The supply of refined copper in China may increase slightly, and the demand is expected to improve with the approaching of the peak season [10]. 2.8 Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14085 yuan/ton on the night of August 26, and the cotton inventory decreased by 127 lots [11]. 2.9 Logs - The futures price of logs was affected by the increase of foreign quotes. The spot trading was weak, and attention should be paid to the price, import data, inventory changes and macro - expectations in the peak season [12]. 2.10 Steel - On August 26, the rb2510 contract closed at 3113 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3367 yuan/ton. The weak reality still restricts the rebound of steel prices, but there are still expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" [12]. 2.11 Alumina - The supply of alumina is increasing, while the growth of downstream electrolytic aluminum capacity is slowing down, resulting in a prominent supply - demand contradiction and downward pressure on prices [12]. 2.12 Shanghai Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum is affected by the expectation of interest rate cuts and real - estate policies. The inventory has increased, and the future price depends on consumption performance [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - On August 25, A-share indices showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten - year high, and the trading volume of the two markets exceeded 3 trillion yuan for the second time in history [1] - Futures of various commodities have different trends and influencing factors, such as the upward trend of stock index futures, the shock of coke and coking coal futures, the small rise of Zheng sugar futures, etc [1][2] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On August 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.51% to 3883.56 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.26% to 12441.07 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 3% to 2762.99 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 3141.1 billion yuan, a significant increase of 594.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4469.22, a rise of 91.22 [1] Coke and Coking Coal - On August 25, the coke weighted index trended stronger with a closing price of 1732.1, a rise of 69.6; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated widely, closing at 1208.8 yuan, a rise of 73.0. From January - July 2025, global crude steel production was 1.0862 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. The current molten iron output is 240.75 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 23 yuan/ton. The coking coal inventory is increasing overall [1] Coking Coal - Tangshan Mongolian 5 refined coal is reported at 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the disk. Fed Chairman Powell expressed an open attitude towards interest rate cuts on August 22. The mine - end inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing, and the refined coal inventory is shifting downstream. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the inventory level is moderately high [2] Zheng Sugar - Affected by factors such as the rebound of US sugar and the rise of crude oil prices, the Zheng Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated slightly higher on August 25, and closed slightly lower at night [2] Rubber - Affected by bad weather in Southeast Asia and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the Shanghai rubber futures rose on August 25 and closed slightly higher at night. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 7 months were 2.572 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%, and exports to China were 1.603 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29% [3] Palm Oil - On August 25, palm oil futures fluctuated slightly in the high - level range. As of August 22, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions decreased by 5.70% week - on - week and 2.65% year - on - year. Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 increased by 16.4% month - on - month [3][5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures closed down on August 25. The US soybean harvest is expected to be good, and Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to be 176.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. Domestically, the M2601 contract rose 0.94% to 3117 yuan/ton. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is accumulating. The purchase of US soybeans and the possible auction of state - reserve soybeans limit the increase of soybean meal [5] Live Pigs - On August 25, the LH2511 contract rose 0.51% to 13940 yuan/ton. The supply pressure has decreased slightly, and the demand is expected to improve with the approaching of the school season and holidays, but the actual recovery is restricted by multiple factors. Live pigs may show a wide - range shock trend [6] Shanghai Copper - Driven by the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the decline of domestic refined copper inventory, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [6] Logs - The 2511 contract of logs opened at 819.5 on August 25, with a low of 812.5, a high of 822, and closed at 820, with an increase of 204 lots. The external price increase drives the domestic futures price up. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction, and the spot trading is weak [6][7] Cotton - The main contract of Zheng Cotton closed at 14145 yuan/ton at night on August 25. The cotton inventory decreased by 94 lots compared with the previous trading day [7] Steel - On August 25, rb2510 closed at 3138 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3389 yuan/ton. The black - series futures fluctuated in the positive range. The production capacity utilization rate in East and North China decreased, and the raw material price increased slightly. The downstream is waiting and watching, and the market transactions are mainly low - price resources [7] Alumina - On August 25, ao2601 closed at 3184 yuan/ton. The fundamentals are weak due to over - capacity, but short - term deep decline is restricted. It is expected to show wide - range fluctuations, and long - term weakness may occur without interference [8][9] Shanghai Aluminum - On August 25, al2510 closed at 20770 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is favorable, but the supply is normal, the inventory is high, the demand is weak, and the trading atmosphere is dull [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - On August 22, the A-share market showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3800 points and reaching a ten-year high. The CSI 300 index also closed strongly, rising by 89.93 points compared to the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products are affected by different factors, including supply and demand, policies, and international market conditions. For example, the prices of coke and coking coal are influenced by production limits, inventory levels, and market sentiment; the price of sugar is affected by production forecasts in Brazil and India; the price of rubber is driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts; and the price of soybeans is supported by strong exports and good growth conditions [1][3][4]. - The market trends of different products vary, with some showing upward trends, some showing downward trends, and some remaining in a state of shock. For example, the prices of stock index futures, coke, and sugar showed upward trends; the price of coking coal showed a downward trend; and the prices of iron ore, asphalt, and logs showed a state of shock [1][2][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On August 22, the A-share market continued its strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.45% to close at 3825.76 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.07% to close at 12166.06 points; the ChiNext Index rose by 3.36% to close at 2682.55 points; and the STAR 50 Index rose by 8.59% to close at 1247.86 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2546.7 billion yuan, an increase of 122.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On August 22, the weighted index of coke showed weak consolidation, with a closing price of 1677.0, a slight increase of 0.2 compared to the previous day. Due to the approaching of a major event, there are expectations of production limits in coking plants in the East China region. The seventh round of price increases for coke has improved coking profits, and the daily production of coking has increased slightly. The overall inventory of coke has continued to decline, and the purchasing willingness of traders is strong. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a high level during the off-season. Market sentiment towards coal over - production inspections has increased, driving up the price of coke. The coke futures price has a premium, and the price is greatly affected by the expected "anti - involution" policy [1][3]. - Coking Coal: On August 22, the weighted index of coking coal showed weak fluctuations, with a closing price of 1156.4 yuan, a decrease of 0.9 compared to the previous day. The output of coking coal mines has increased, the flow - rate of spot auctions has slightly increased, the transaction price has decreased, and the terminal inventory has remained flat. The inventory at the production end has increased slightly, and it is necessary to observe whether the de - stocking continues [2][3]. Sugar - A survey of 10 traders and analysts shows that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 39.7 million tons, lower than the February forecast of 41.6 million tons and the previous season's 40.2 million tons. Analysts expect the sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season starting in October to be 32 million tons, higher than the 26.22 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Affected by this, the US sugar price stopped falling and rebounded slightly last Friday. Supported by the stabilization of the US sugar price and the role of funds, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fluctuated slightly higher last Friday [3]. Rubber - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting raised expectations of interest rate cuts, driving up the price of Shanghai rubber in the night session last Friday. As of August 22, the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 212,669 tons, a decrease of 519 tons compared to the previous day; the futures warehouse receipts were 178,470 tons, a decrease of 1460 tons compared to the previous day. The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 48,183 tons, a decrease of 1007 tons compared to the previous day; the futures warehouse receipts were 44,857 tons, a decrease of 1612 tons compared to the previous day [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on August 22, the CBOT soybean futures rose further to a two - month high. Strong weekly exports and the rebound of soybean oil prices boosted the price of US soybeans. The ProFarmer survey results in six out of seven states showed that the number of soybean pods was higher than the average of the past three years, supporting the expectation of good yields and production of US soybeans. The good growth condition of US soybeans has improved the harvest outlook, and the probability of weather speculation has decreased as the weather window narrows. In the domestic market, on August 22, the M2601 main contract closed at 3088 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8%. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the soybean crushing volume remains high, the downstream提货 speed has accelerated, and the inventory accumulation rhythm at the oil mill end has slowed down. China's soybean orders for the fourth quarter are basically all from South America. The market's concern about the tight supply of soybean meal in the later period supports the price - holding power of soybean meal. Future attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the production areas and the situation of soybean imports [4][5]. Live Hogs - On August 22, the LH2511 main contract closed at 13,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.54%. On the supply side, in August, the production capacity is in the stage of concentrated realization, the supply of suitable - weight pigs has increased, and the slaughter plan of group pig enterprises has increased compared to the previous month, resulting in a relatively loose market supply. On the demand side, the national central pork reserve purchase plan has released a market - supporting signal, strongly boosting market confidence. Although the supply of pigs is sufficient, the demand in some areas has shown signs of recovery, and the slaughterhouse operating rate has moderately rebounded. With the approaching of the students' return to school and the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day double - festival stocking period, the terminal consumption is expected to further improve. However, the actual consumption recovery strength is still restricted by factors such as residents' consumption willingness and the economic environment, and dynamic tracking is required. Live hogs may show a wide - range shock trend, and future attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of live hogs and market demand [5]. Copper - At the macro level, the market will focus on the Fed's interest - rate stance from the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. If the Fed releases a hawkish signal, it may suppress the copper price. Fundamentally, as the "Golden September" peak season approaches, downstream enterprises may have pre - stocking needs, and the expected improvement in demand will support the price. However, the supply of copper mines has increased to some extent, and the supply of refined copper is also expected to increase slightly. The changes in the supply - demand situation still need to be monitored. In addition, although the global inventory level is low, significant changes in inventory will also affect the copper price [6]. Iron Ore - On August 22, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed down with a decline of 0.71% and a closing price of 770 yuan. Last week, the global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore both increased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the molten iron production continued to rise and remained at a high level. However, with the tightening of environmental protection policies in the north before the September military parade, there is an expectation of a reduction in molten iron production. In the short term, the iron ore price is in a shock trend [6]. Asphalt - On August 22, the asphalt 2510 main contract closed up with a rise of 0.81% and a closing price of 3483 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased compared to the previous week. The terminal demand was limited by rainfall and funds, and there was no significant improvement in demand. The fundamentals lack an obvious one - sided driving force, and the asphalt price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [6]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,155 yuan/ton. As of August 25, the minimum basis quotation of the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market was 1070 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 137 bales compared to the previous day [7]. Logs - On August 22, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 804, with a minimum of 797.5, a maximum of 807.5, and closed at 801, with a daily reduction of 1007 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 and the resistance at 815. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. The increase in the external market quotation has driven up the domestic futures price. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for the price [7]. Steel - Currently, the focus is shifting from downstream finished products to upstream raw materials. On the one hand, the reduction in blast furnace production is not significant, the molten iron production is still increasing, the actual demand for raw materials has increased, the fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable, and the seventh round of coke price increases has been implemented. On the other hand, various information about coking coal has emerged, reviving the bulls, and there is a sign that the correction is over. However, it should be noted that the inventory pressure of finished products is still increasing, which will intensify the contradiction between raw materials and finished products, and this situation will continue. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation of finished products in the next two weeks [9]. Alumina - From the perspective of raw materials, due to the uncertainty of disturbances in the Guinea mining area and the concentrated shipments before the rainy season in Guinea, the arrival and import of domestic bauxite have increased, and the supply of domestic bauxite is relatively sufficient. In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic alumina has increased slightly, the operating rate remains high, and the opening of the import window has led to an increase in imports, resulting in an increase in the domestic alumina supply. In terms of demand, the demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum plants remains high. In the southwest region, the abundant water period from July to August has prompted electrolytic aluminum plants to resume production intensively, and the demand for alumina has also increased. Overall, the fundamentals of alumina may be in a situation of both supply and demand growth [9]. Aluminum - The price of alumina, the raw material, has slightly decreased, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum remains good, which has encouraged smelters to be more active in production. In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is approaching the industry limit, and the domestic output has only increased slightly due to the commissioning of some replacement production capacities. In terms of demand, the spot price of aluminum remains relatively strong, and the off - season has suppressed the downstream consumption sentiment. However, as the peak season approaches, downstream enterprises may have pre - stocking needs, and the consumption demand is expected to improve. In terms of inventory, affected by the off - season, the social inventory has slightly accumulated and is at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply, temporarily weak demand but expected to recover [10].