Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 27, A-share market indices declined: Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% to 3340.69, Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.61% to 10029.11, and ChiNext Index decreased 0.68% to 1991.64. Trading volume was 9989 billion yuan, down 110 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index adjusted, closing at 3839.40, down 20.71 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 27, Coke weighted index closed at 1365.2 yuan, down 12.8; Coking coal weighted index closed at 800.4 yuan, down 1.1. Coke's second - round price cut of 50 - 55 yuan/ton is expected to take effect on Wednesday. Some steel mills'开工 declined slightly, downstream demand weakened, and coke enterprises' inventory pressure increased. Some coking coal prices dropped, reducing coke enterprises' costs. For coking coal, some mines had production cuts, online auction failure rate rose, and inventory accumulated. Mongolian 5 raw coal price dropped to 760 - 780 yuan/ton [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the holiday, US sugar market was closed on Monday. Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated on Tuesday, closing slightly higher, and slightly lower at night due to short - selling pressure. Analysts expect Brazil's mid - south region's May 1 - 15 sugarcane crushing volume to be 4060 million tons, down 9.9% year - on - year, and sugar production to be 229 million tons, down 11.5% year - on - year [2]. Rubber - Heavy rainfall in Thailand may affect rubber tapping. Shanghai rubber rebounded on Tuesday and declined at night. In April 2025, global light - vehicle sales reached 7.32 million units, up 6% year - on - year [2]. Palm Oil - On May 27, palm oil rebounded at a low level. The main contract P2509 closed at 8044, up 1.13%. Malaysia's May 1 - 25 palm oil exports were 991702 tons, up 7.3% from the previous month. China's palm oil commercial inventory decreased to 360,000 tons, down 50,000 tons week - on - week [3][4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures rose slightly on May 27. Trump postponed EU import tariff increase to July 9. As of May 25, 2025, US soybean planting rate was 76%, higher than 66% last year. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 172 million tons. Domestically, on May 26, soybean meal futures rose. With more soybeans arriving, soybean inventory increased, oil mills' operating rate rose, and soybean meal inventory is expected to rise. Short - term demand growth is limited [4]. Live Pigs - On May 27, live pig futures fluctuated at the bottom, closing at 13560 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, slaughterhouses have stocking demand, but fresh pork sales are poor. In the long - term, the market supply is abundant, and the futures price is bearish [5]. Shanghai Copper - Trump's threat and rising US bond yields increased pressure on risk assets. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to April increased 1.4% year - on - year. Although high copper prices weakened domestic demand, continuous inventory reduction supported the spot price [5]. Iron Ore - On May 27, iron ore 2509 contract fell 1.76% to 698.5 yuan. Overseas shipments decreased, arrivals increased slightly, port inventory decreased, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. Asphalt - On May 27, asphalt 2507 contract rose 0.03% to 3516 yuan. Capacity utilization decreased, shipments increased, but supply may rise. With the rainy season in the south, demand may be suppressed, and prices will fluctuate [6]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13285 yuan/ton. On May 28, the lowest basis price was 680 yuan/ton, and inventory decreased by 23 lots [6]. Logs - On May 27, log 2507 contract opened at 764.5, closed at 755, with an increase of 159 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. Port inventory increased slightly, demand was weak, and the market entered the off - season [6][8]. Steel - On May 27, rb2510 closed at 2980 yuan/ton, hc2510 at 3111 yuan/ton. With the rainy season approaching, building material demand may decline seasonally, and plate consumption will enter the off - season. The steel market faces oversupply, and prices will fluctuate weakly [8]. Alumina - On May 27, ao2509 closed at 3018 yuan/ton. Tight spot supply and inventory reduction supported prices, but concerns about bauxite supply eased and increased production capacity limited price increases. The market lacks a one - sided trend [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On May 27, al2507 closed at 20040 yuan/ton. Although there are tariff impacts, strong demand, supply disruptions, and low inventory may support prices [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Battery - grade lithium carbonate prices continued to decline. The market is in oversupply, demand growth is limited, supply may increase, and cost support is weakening. Prices will remain weak [9].

客服产品系列•日评 【股指期货】 周一（5 月 26 日）A 股三大指数走势分化，沪指震荡整理，创业板指走势较弱。截止收盘， 沪指跌 0.05%，收报 3346.84 点；深证成指跌 0.41%，收报 10091.16 点；创业板指跌 0.80%，收报 2005.26 点。 沪深两市成交额仅有 1.01 万亿，较上周五缩量 1456 亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 26 日持续调整，收盘 3860.11，环比下跌 22.17。 【焦炭 焦煤】5 月 26 日焦炭加权指数弱势，收盘价 1375.7 元，环比下跌 24.2。 5 月 26 日，焦煤加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 800.1 元，环比下跌 15.8。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：基本面进入供强需弱阶段，供给端吨焦利润回落，短期来看暂无限产预期；需求端钢厂首轮提降落地， 铁水见顶回落，刚需量边际走弱。 焦煤：进入淡季负反馈格局。宏观方面情绪消化后，供应端部分煤矿因安全问题和利润减产，上游依旧持续 累库，出货压力较大，供给相对充裕，需求端下游持货意愿不强，主动压减库存天数，铁水环比见顶回落，需求 淡季影响显现。5 月淡旺季切换后，供需双减 ...

Variety View Stock Index Futures - On May 23, the three major A-share indices collectively pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94% to close at 3348.37 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.85% to close at 10132.41 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.18% to close at 2021.50 points. The trading volume of the two markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1155.6 billion yuan, an increase of 52.9 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index pulled back and closed at 3882.27, a decrease of 31.39 from the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 23, the weighted index of coke remained weak, closing at 1384.0 yuan, a decrease of 25.5 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal was also weak, closing at 802.3 yuan, a decrease of 32.9 from the previous day [2]. Factors Affecting Coke and Coking Coal Futures Prices - Coke: Some enterprises' production declined slightly due to maintenance. With the arrival of high - temperature weather, downstream demand weakened, and steel prices fell. Steel mills mainly replenished inventory based on rigid demand, and the overall procurement enthusiasm was average. The first round of price cuts for coke by steel mills was implemented, with a reduction of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and coke enterprises' profits shrank [3]. - Coking coal: This week, some coal mines stopped or reduced production due to accidents. After the first - round price cut of coke, coal prices still have room to fall in the short term. Some previously shut - down or reduced - production coal mines resumed production, and coal mine output increased. Pit - mouth orders decreased, and coal mine inventory accumulated. The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal dropped to about 770 - 800 yuan/ton [3]. Soybean Meal - International market: The soybean harvest progress in Argentina has passed 60%. The sowing and emergence indicators of US soybeans are better than normal levels. However, the weak export demand and unmet biodiesel policy expectations may limit the upward space of US soybean prices. Domestic market: On May 23, the M2509 main contract closed at 2652 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. With the increase in soybean arrivals, soybean inventory continued to rise, and the national oil mill operating rate increased significantly. The short - term demand for soybean meal increased limitedly. The price upward space of soybean meal is restricted [3]. Live Pigs - On May 23, the main 2509 contract of live pigs closed at 13515 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The consumption demand did not meet expectations. The market is in a pattern of loose supply. In the medium - to - long - term, the inventory of breeding sows is still higher than the normal level, and the production efficiency has increased, so the live pig futures price may fluctuate weakly [4]. Cotton - On the night of May 23, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13400 yuan/ton. On May 26, the basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the national cotton trading market was at least 660 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 50 lots compared with the previous day [5]. Shanghai Copper - The main price of Shanghai copper maintains a volatile trend, with an operating range of 77400 - 78800 yuan/ton. If it can break through the pressure level near 78500 yuan/ton, the upward space may open; otherwise, there is great pressure at key points such as 79490 yuan/ton [5]. Iron Ore - On May 23, the 2509 main contract of iron ore oscillated and fell, with a decline of 1.24%, closing at 718 yuan. Last week, the overseas shipment of iron ore increased significantly, the arrival volume continued to decrease, and the port inventory continued to decline. The terminal demand is under seasonal weakening pressure, and the molten iron output has declined for two consecutive periods. Iron ore shows a volatile trend in the short term [5]. Asphalt - On May 23, the 2507 main contract of asphalt oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 0.37%, closing at 3516 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month, and the shipment volume increased month - on - month. In June, the asphalt production volume of local refineries will increase year - on - year and month - on - month. With the arrival of the rainy season, the terminal demand may be suppressed. Asphalt shows a volatile trend in the short term [6]. Logs - On May 23, the 2507 contract of logs opened at 776.5, with a minimum of 773, a maximum of 777.5, and closed at 775, with a daily reduction of 442 lots. The port log inventory has dropped to a three - month low. The overall demand is still weak, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction. The spot price is weak [6]. Steel - Currently, the macro news is relatively calm. The market refocuses on the supply - demand fundamentals. In the short term, the demand has declined but still maintains a certain resilience. Both rebar and hot - rolled coils are in the de - stocking stage, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant. However, with the arrival of the rainy season, the steel price may face downward pressure in the medium term [7]. Alumina - The import of domestic bauxite has increased significantly. The supply of alumina may increase slightly, and the demand remains stable. The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is close to the industry limit, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The demand of some downstream aluminum processing enterprises has weakened, and the inventory may accumulate slightly if the seasonal consumption weakens [9].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 22, A-share market indices declined, with Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22% to 3380.19, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.72% to 10219.62, and ChiNext Index down 0.96% to 2045.57. The trading volume was 1.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 70 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3913.86, down 2.52 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 22, the coke weighted index closed at 1407.4 yuan, down 12.1, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 827.7 yuan, down 14.2. Coke supply is ample due to high coking enterprise profits and production, while steel mill iron - water output may have peaked. Coking coal supply is stable with domestic mine复产 and slightly reduced Mongolian imports, but port inventory is rising due to weak demand [1]. Zhengzhou Sugar - After five - day decline, ICE sugar rebounded on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar futures contract 2509 rose in the morning on May 22 but fell in the afternoon due to long - liquidation. In the night session, it declined due to falling crude oil prices. In April 2025, China's imports of syrup and sugar premix totaled 85,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 106,000 tons [1]. Rubber - On May 22, Shanghai rubber futures had a technical rebound during the day and narrow - range fluctuations at night. In April 2025, China's rubber tire production was 102 million pieces, up 3.1% year - on - year, and 1 - 4 month production was 385.58 million pieces, up 3.7%. Synthetic rubber production in April was 743,000 tons, up 15.2% year - on - year, and 1 - 4 month production was 2.947 million tons, up 11.3% [2]. Palm Oil - On May 22, palm oil futures declined within a range, with the main contract P2509 closing at 7994 yuan, down 1.36%. In May 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production is expected to increase by about 5% month - on - month, and exports by about 10% [2][3]. Soybean Meal - On May 22, CBOT soybean futures rose. As of May 15, US soybean export sales increased by 9% week - on - week. US soybean planting and emergence are better than normal, but recent rain may delay Midwest planting. In the domestic market, on May 22, soybean meal futures were stable, and about 12 million tons of imported soybeans are expected to arrive in May, leading to a supply - abundant market [3]. Live Hogs - On May 22, live hog futures declined slightly, with the LH2509 contract closing at 13,580 yuan/ton, down 0.51%. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, slaughterhouses have stocking demand, but hot weather, diet changes, and weak fresh pork sales lead to a supply - abundant market. In the long - term, high sow inventory will keep the market weak [4]. Shanghai Copper - In early May, China's industrial added - value growth slowed, and real - estate investment was weak, leading to lower - than - expected copper demand. The global copper concentrate supply is abundant, and SHFE copper inventory increased. The import window opened, and short - term copper is in an adjustment period, with a key support at 77,500 yuan/ton [4]. Iron Ore - On May 22, iron ore futures rose slightly, with the 2509 contract closing at 727 yuan, up 0.14%. Overseas shipments increased, arrivals decreased, and port inventory decreased slightly. Steel mills' high profitability limits short - term production cuts, and iron ore will likely fluctuate [5]. Asphalt - On May 22, asphalt futures rose slightly, with the 2507 contract closing at 3539 yuan, up 0.45%. In June, refinery asphalt production will increase. Northern demand is rising, but southern demand may be affected by the rainy season, and asphalt will likely fluctuate [5]. Logs - On May 22, log futures opened at 778.5, closed at 777.5, and increased positions by 335 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were stable. Port inventory decreased to a three - month low, but overall demand is weak, and the market is waiting for price stabilization [5]. Cotton - On the night of May 22, Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13,450 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 46 lots. In Pakistan, new cotton is on the market with limited transactions, and spinning mills are reducing inventory [6]. Steel - On May 22, rebar futures rb2510 closed at 3061 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil futures hc2510 closed at 3210 yuan/ton. This week, steel production decreased seasonally. Rebar demand declined significantly, and mill inventory increased. The market is now driven by fundamentals, and negative feedback expectations should be monitored [6]. Alumina - On May 22, alumina futures ao2509 closed at 3216 yuan/ton. The impact of the Guinea incident is uncertain, and short - term spot is tight, but supply may increase as profits recover, and price corrections should be watched [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - On May 22, Shanghai aluminum futures al2507 closed at 20,210 yuan/ton. The impact of the Guinea incident on bauxite supply is to be evaluated. Aluminum demand is seasonally weak, and short - term processing enterprise operating rates will decline. Low inventory supports prices, but macro - negatives and weak demand limit upside [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose 44 yuan/ton to 63,380 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was stable at 63,050 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade at 61,450 yuan/ton. The market is weak, with few trades, and cost support is weakening [8].

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 21 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周二（5 月 20 日） A 股市场主要指数集体收涨，沪指涨 0.38%，收报 3380.48 点；深证成 指涨 0.77%，收报 10249.17 点；创业板指涨 0.77%，收报 2048.46 点；北证 50 指数涨 1.22%创历史新高，收报 1473.99 点。沪深京三市成交额超 1.2 万亿，较昨日放量近千亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 20 日震荡趋强，收盘 3898.17，环比上涨 21.03。 【焦炭 焦煤】5 月 20 日焦炭加权指数弱势，收盘价 1408.6 元，环比下跌 24.3。 5 月 20 日，焦煤加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 838.8 元，环比下跌 12.8。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：供应维持增长，焦厂焦炉有所增产，需求端：虽然铁水略有走弱而下降，但需求总量上铁水仍在高位， 需求支撑仍在，库存端：全面去库，仅钢厂焦煤轻微补库。关税超预期利好带来的市场情绪随时间消退，价格回 归基本面矛主导 。 焦煤：柳林低硫主焦煤 1240 元/吨（0），乌不浪口蒙 5# ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 20 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一（5 月 19 日） A 股三大指数震荡整理，截止收盘，沪指平盘报收，收报 3367.58 点；深 证成指跌 0.08%，收报 10171.09 点；创业板指跌 0.33%，收报 2032.76 点。沪深两市成交额 10865 亿，较上一个 交易日微幅缩量 31 亿。 【郑糖】因预计巴西中南部甘蔗收割进度将回升美糖上周五震荡下跌。因短线跌幅较大与现货报价平稳等因 素支持郑糖 2509 月合约周一震荡整理。夜盘，郑糖 2509 月合约波动不大窄幅震荡小幅收高。咨询公司 Datagro 总裁兼首席分析师 Plinio Nastari 表示，尽管 2025/26 榨季初期收获缓慢，但甘蔗生长条件有利，预计 2025/26 榨季全球食糖供应过剩 153 万吨；预计印度和泰国的产量将增加，也将有助于提高全球食糖供应。Datagro 预计 巴西中南部地区 2025/26 榨季食糖产量为 4204 万吨，高于上一榨季的 4017 万吨；印度的食糖产量将从 2600 万 吨增加到 3160 万吨；泰国的食糖产量将从 1 ...

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 16, A-share major indices fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.40% to 3367.46, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.07% to 10179.60, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.19% to 2039.45. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.0895 trillion yuan, a decrease of 62.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index continued to adjust on May 16, closing at 3889.08, down 18.11 from the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 16, the weighted coke index was weak, closing at 1447.9 yuan, down 27.4 from the previous day. The weighted coking coal index also remained weak, closing at 853.8 yuan, down 33.3 from the previous day [1]. - For coke, steel mills proposed the first - round price cut after the holiday. Relevant national ministries are promoting crude steel output control, and the MIIT is revising the implementation method for steel industry capacity replacement. In the short - term, coke supply elasticity is better than coking coal, and the increase in hot metal output is limited. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 7 yuan/ton this period [1]. - For coking coal, Mongolian 5 raw coal was reported at 815 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. The supply is loose, mine production is stable, and the refined coal inventory continued to increase this period [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the expected recovery of sugar cane harvesting progress in central - southern Brazil, ICE sugar futures fell on Friday. Affected by the decline in ICE sugar, the short - sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract, which declined slightly. The ISO raised its forecast for the global sugar shortage in the 2024/25 season to 5.47 million tons from the previous 4.88 million tons, due to lower - than - expected production in India and Pakistan [2]. Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed slightly lower on the night of May 16. As of May 16, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 206,043 tons, an increase of 2800 tons from the previous day, and the futures warehouse receipts were 200,270 tons, a decrease of 230 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory was 74,793 tons, a decrease of 4838 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 70,257 tons, a decrease of 4435 tons [2]. Soybean Meal - The Sino - US economic and trade talks reached an important consensus, which boosted the price of US soybeans. However, the good start of US soybeans in 2025 and the good planting and growing conditions exerted pressure on soybean futures prices. Brazil's soybean harvest is basically completed, with an expected output of 168 million tons, resulting in a generally loose market supply [3]. - In the domestic market, on May 16, soybean meal futures prices fluctuated. The M2509 contract closed at 2899 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82%. Since May, the arrival volume of imported soybeans has increased rapidly, the oil refinery operating rate has continuously increased, and the soybean meal inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, but the increase is slow and still at a low level. With the upcoming peak arrival of imported soybeans, the market expects that the demand of terminal feed and breeding enterprises may be less than the supply of soybean meal, so the soybean meal market may maintain a weak and volatile trend [3][4]. Live Pigs - On May 16, live pig futures prices were weak. The LH2509 contract closed at 13,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87%. In May, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has increased, and the slaughter plan of large - scale pig enterprises has increased month - on - month. Affected by the narrowing price difference between fat and lean pigs, farmers are more willing to slaughter medium - and large - sized pigs, but have a general willingness to slaughter standard pigs and still have a mentality of holding prices. Currently, the overall consumer demand is weak, the consumer diet structure has been adjusted, and there are many alternative consumptions, resulting in poor sales of fresh pork. The market is generally in a situation of loose supply, and live pig futures prices may be weakly volatile. Short - term attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of live pigs [4]. Iron Ore - On May 16, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated and closed down 0.95% at 728 yuan. Last week, the overseas shipment and arrival volume of iron ore both decreased month - on - month, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the supply level tightened. The hot metal output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. In the short - term, iron ore prices may fluctuate [4]. Asphalt - On May 16, the main 2506 contract of asphalt futures fluctuated and closed up 0.75% at 3510 yuan. Recently, due to the improvement of refinery production profits, the production load has been increased to varying degrees, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate has continued to increase month - on - month, the inventory level has rebounded, and the shipment volume has increased month - on - month. However, affected by rainy weather, the demand is still hindered. In the short - term, asphalt prices may fluctuate [5]. Cotton - On the night of May 16, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures closed at 13,415 yuan/ton. As of May 19, the minimum basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses in the National Cotton Exchange was 610 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 2 lots compared with the previous day. Future attention should be paid to the weather conditions in major cotton - producing countries and the impact of macro - policies on supply and demand expectations [5]. Shanghai Copper - Currently, Shanghai copper is in a high - level volatile state. On the supply side, the global copper concentrate supply is loose, but overseas smelter maintenance and low domestic inventory cause supply disruptions. On the demand side, the demand in the new energy vehicle and infrastructure sectors is resilient, while weak real estate investment drags down the overall demand. At the macro level, the Fed's interest rate policy remains unchanged, the US dollar fluctuates, and the progress of Sino - US trade talks and changes in tariff policies affect market sentiment. Technically, the main contract of Shanghai copper has support around 77,000 yuan and resistance above 78,500 yuan. Overall, with multiple factors intertwined, without major unexpected events, Shanghai copper prices may fluctuate within the current range. Attention should be paid to the dynamic changes of macro - policies, supply and demand, and inventory [6]. Logs - On May 16, the 2507 contract of logs opened at 788, with a minimum of 779.5, a maximum of 794, and closed at 783, with an increase of 1585 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support at 780 and the resistance at 790. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 760 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. The port log inventory has dropped to a two - month low, and the outbound volume has increased slightly. The overall demand is still weak, and there is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. Attention should be paid to import data, downstream purchasing, and traders' willingness to hold prices [7]. Steel - After the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, there has been a rush to ship on the Sino - US route, reversing the previous pessimistic expectation of reduced demand due to potential tariff increases. Recently, the rush to ship has brought a wave of demand for the black - colored commodities, but the tariffs are only reduced, not completely eliminated, which essentially overdrafts future demand, and there is still some pressure on the export side in the future. In addition, the off - season is approaching, and domestic demand tends to weaken seasonally. Currently, it is difficult for the demand side to improve further. The overall supply - demand pattern of the black - colored commodities remains oversupplied. In the short - term, supported by strong current conditions, steel prices may fluctuate and consolidate, but in the medium - term, the weak trend remains unchanged [7][9]. Alumina - On the raw material side, Guinea has been actively shipping before the rainy season. After the arrival of this batch of goods, the domestic port inventory will increase, and the raw material supply will be supplemented, leading to a decline in the price of bauxite. On the supply side of alumina, due to the previously low spot price, some domestic smelters have carried out maintenance and production reduction operations to control the supply, and traders also have a sentiment of holding prices and惜售. The oversupply situation of alumina has improved. On the demand side, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the upper limit, and the demand for alumina is relatively stable. Overall, the fundamentals of alumina may be in a state of slightly converging supply and stable demand, but due to the decline in raw material prices, the cost support has weakened [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - Fundamentally, on the supply side of electrolytic aluminum, the new domestic production capacity increment is sporadic, and the operating production capacity is approaching the industry "ceiling", so the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is relatively stable. On the demand side, in the domestic market, the downstream aluminum processing industry is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, and the downstream operating rate has declined; in the overseas market, due to the easing of Sino - US tariff attitudes, there is some demand boost for domestic exports, and the overall demand maintains a slight increase. With relatively stable supply, the industrial inventory is continuously decreasing. Overall, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly increasing demand [9].

国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 16 日 星期五 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（5 月 15 日）A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.68%，收报 3380.82 点；深 证成指跌 1.62%，收报 10186.45 点；创业板指跌 1.91%，收报 2043.25 点。沪深两市成交额 11524 亿，较昨日缩 量 1643 亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 15 日回调整理，收盘 3907.20，环比下跌 36.01。 【焦炭 焦煤】5 月 15 日焦炭加权指数窄幅整理，收盘价 1473.2 元，环比上涨 5.8。 5 月 15 日，焦煤加权指数窄幅震荡，收盘价 883.5 元，环比上涨 3.1。 客服产品系列•日评 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：钢厂提出节后焦炭首轮降价。国家相关部委正在积极部署和推进全国粗钢产量调控工作，工业和信息 化部正在加紧修订《钢铁行业产能置换实施办法》，目前已形成初稿。基本面，短期供应弹性好于焦煤，铁水产 量上升空间有限。利润方面，本期全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利 1 元/吨，钢厂提出节后焦炭首轮降价。 焦煤：蒙 5#原煤报 820，价 ...

国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 15 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（5 月 14 日）A 股三大指数集体收涨，沪指站上 3400 点整数关口。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.86%，收报 3403.95 点；深证成指涨 0.64%，收报 10354.22 点；创业板指涨 1.01%，收报 2083.14 点。沪深两 市成交额达到 13167 亿，较昨日小幅放量 252 亿。 沪深 300 指数 5 月 14 日强势，收盘 3943.21，环比上涨 46.95。 【焦炭 焦煤】5 月 14 日焦炭加权指数弱势反弹，收盘价 1483.8 元，环比上涨 22.8。 客服产品系列•日评 5 月 14 日，焦煤加权指数弱势震荡，收盘价 894.6 元，环比上涨 18.0。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦炭提降一轮。13 日邢台地区部分钢厂对湿熄焦炭下调 50 元/吨、干熄焦炭下调 55 元/吨，2025 年 5 月 16 日零点执行。13 日天津地区部分钢厂对湿熄焦炭下调 50 元/吨、干熄焦炭下调 55 元/吨，2025 年 5 月 16 日零点执行。13 日石家庄地区部分钢厂对湿熄焦炭 ...

Variety Insights Stock Index Futures - On May 13th, the three major A-share indexes fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17% to 3374.87 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.13% to 10288.08 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.12% to 2062.26 points. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.2916 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 16.9 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3896.26, up 5.65 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 13th, the weighted coke index was weak, closing at 1450.0 yuan, down 9.5. The weighted coking coal index remained weak, closing at 871.0 yuan, down 7.5. After the first round of price increase for coke, the price remained stable. The relevant national ministries are actively deploying and promoting the regulation of national crude steel production, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is revising the Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry. The short - term supply elasticity of coke is better than that of coking coal, and the increase in hot metal production is limited. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 1 yuan/ton. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is 820 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the mine production is stable, with a significant increase in clean coal inventory this period [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the technical adjustment of the US sugar and the bearish monthly report of the Market Early - Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated downward on May 13th and rose at night due to short - covering. As of the end of April 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China was 11.11 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons year - on - year. The sugar production forecast for the 2024/25 season has been further raised to 11.15 million tons, and it is predicted that the sugar production in 2025/26 will continue to increase slightly to 11.2 million tons. India has set a sugarcane production target of 467 million tons for 2025 - 26, higher than last year's 436.08 million tons [2]. Rubber - Affected by the technical adjustment due to the recent sharp increase, the Shanghai rubber fluctuated and closed slightly higher on May 13th and continued to rise slightly at night. As of May 11th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 618,700 tons, an increase of 4500 tons or 0.73% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 5.89% to 90,000 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.09% to 528,700 tons. The automobile market performed well in April, and the production and sales in the first four months of this year exceeded 10 million for the first time in history [3]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on May 13th, the CBOT soybean futures prices closed higher. The US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report lowered the US soybean production forecast, and the easing of Sino - US trade relations was also positive. The USDA expects the ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/2026 to be 295 million bushels, lower than the analysts' pre - report estimate of 362 million bushels. The sown area is expected to be 83.5 million acres, the yield per acre to be 52.5 bushels, and the production to be 4.34 billion bushels. In the domestic market, on May 13th, the soybean meal futures prices fluctuated weakly. The M2509 contract closed at 2886 yuan/ton, down 0.76%. After May, the arrival of imported soybeans increased rapidly, the oil mill operating rate continued to rise, and the soybean meal inventory stopped falling and rebounded slowly, remaining at a low level. The soybean meal market may fluctuate weakly in the context of loose supply [4][5]. Live Hogs - On May 13th, the live hog futures fluctuated. The LH2509 main contract closed at 13,885 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The overall consumer demand is weak, with more alternative consumption, and the sales of fresh pork are poor. The breeding side is normalizing the slaughter, and the average slaughter weight is high. According to the inventory of breeding sows, the theoretical supply of live hogs will increase month - by - month in the second quarter. In the long - term, the live hog futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend [6]. Palm Oil - On May 13th, palm oil rose first and then fell, continuing the weak and volatile trend. The main contract P2509 closed with a negative line, with the highest price of 8082, the lowest price of 7938, and the closing price of 7954, down 0.87% from the previous day. From May 1 - 10, 2025, the palm oil yield in Malaysia increased by 20.2%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4%, and the production increased by 22.31%. In April, Malaysia's palm oil imports decreased by 52.17% month - on - month, production increased by 21.52% month - on - month, and exports increased by 9.62% month - on - month [6]. Shanghai Copper - On May 13th, the main Shanghai copper contract CU2506 opened at 78,080 yuan/ton, reached a high of 78,190 yuan/ton, a low of 77,620 yuan/ton, and closed at 77,820 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The trading volume was 39,435 lots, and the open interest was 180,978 lots. The price first rose, then fell, and then stabilized. The fundamental supply - demand relationship has weakened, with increased supply and decreased demand, but the price is also supported to some extent [7]. Iron Ore - On May 13th, the iron ore 2509 main contract fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 1.06% and a closing price of 714.5 yuan. The overseas shipment and arrival of iron ore decreased this period, the supply tightened, and the growth rate of hot metal production slowed down but remained at a high level. In the short - term, iron ore will show a volatile trend [7]. Asphalt - On May 13th, the asphalt 2506 main contract fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 0.69% and a closing price of 3485 yuan. With the recovery of refinery processing profit, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased month - on - month, the social inventory accumulated slightly, and the demand release was still average. In the short - term, asphalt will show a volatile trend [7]. Logs - On May 13th, the 2507 log contract opened at 804, with the lowest price of 784, the highest price of 805, and closed at 788, with a reduction of 7285 lots. The support level is at 780, and the resistance level is at 803. The spot prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous day. The port log inventory decreased to a two - month low, with a slight increase in outbound volume. The overall demand is weak, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions [8]. Cotton - On the night of May 13th, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13,335 yuan/ton. The lowest basis price of cotton in the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Exchange on May 13th was 610 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 41 lots from the previous day. According to the USDA's May global cotton supply - demand forecast report, the global cotton production in 2025/26 will decrease year - on - year but remain at the second - highest level in the past five years, while consumption will increase year - on - year and reach the highest level in the past five years [9]. Steel - On May 13th, rb2510 closed at 3079 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3215 yuan/ton. The US will reduce the tariff on most Chinese goods from 145% to 30% before May 14th, and China will reduce the tariff on US products from 125% to 10%. The consensus of the Sino - US economic and trade negotiation exceeded market expectations, boosting market sentiment. The fundamental supply - demand relationship of rebar has weakened, but the macro - sentiment has strengthened. In the short - term, the rebar futures may show a volatile trend [9]. Alumina - On May 13th, ao2509 closed at 2840 yuan/ton. The spot trading price of alumina continued to rise, and the indexes in various regions increased by about 10 yuan. Recently, the capacity for maintenance and production reduction of alumina has been increasing, and the production has decreased periodically, with the industry inventory turning to decline. However, once the profit is restored, the capacity will resume production on a large scale, and new capacities in Shandong and Hebei will gradually produce finished products. The cost of Guinean bauxite has dropped from 110 US dollars at the beginning of the year to 75 US dollars, and the average cost of alumina has dropped to around 2900 yuan [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - On May 13th, al2506 closed at 20,005 yuan/ton. The result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation exceeded expectations, improving the macro - sentiment. Some short - sellers left the market, pushing up the aluminum price with reduced positions. However, the peak season is over, and the weakening demand expectation restricts the increase in aluminum price. In the short - term, pay attention to the 20,000 - yuan/ton level, and in the medium - term, pay attention to whether the tariff negotiation result will lead to enterprises' rush - to - export and improve the aluminum demand situation [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The index price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,762 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,400 - 65,800 yuan/ton, with an average of 64,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,450 - 63,450 yuan/ton, with an average of 62,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The spot trading price of lithium carbonate has temporarily stabilized. The downstream procurement willingness is weak, and the overall demand is mainly met by customer - supplied and long - term contracts. The upstream lithium salt factories have a strong willingness to support the price under cost - loss pressure. Only some transactions occur between traders and downstream enterprises. There may be a rush - to - export expectation for Chinese energy - storage cells within the 90 - day tariff - exemption period, which may drive up the demand for lithium carbonate. However, considering the high inventory level and the continuous decline in ore prices, the price of lithium carbonate is likely to show a low - level volatile trend with a greater possibility of decline [10][11].