Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Raw material demand remains relatively high, but coal mine production cuts are lower than expected, leading to a slight inventory build - up at mines, which drags down the market. In the short term, market sentiment is still volatile, and coal - coke prices will fluctuate [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Aspects Market Conditions - Yesterday, coal - coke futures prices oscillated weakly. The 09 contract entered the delivery month, and with weak buy - delivery willingness, the futures price shifted from premium to flat or even discount, pulling down other contract prices. On the spot side, some high - priced coal resources at coal mines had weak sales, and prices were weakly stable. Last week, Hebei coke enterprises started the 8th round of price increase, but major steel mills didn't respond, while some regional steel mills planned price cuts, and the market entered a game period [3] Supply Side (Coal Mines) - Last week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi reduced production intensively. In Lvliang, some coal mines were affected by geological conditions, and safety inspections in Linfen were stricter, resulting in a significant decline in coal production. By tracking the resumption progress of shut - down coal mines, coal production is likely to increase slightly next week, but before September 3, main production area coal mines will focus on safety production, and some coal mines may have short - term production cuts [3] Demand Side (Steel Mills) - Last week's data showed that steel mills had no obvious production cut actions, and hot metal production remained high. The overall production restriction intensity was weaker than that during the 2019 military parade. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week and an increase of 59.74 percentage points compared to last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.02%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points from last week and an increase of 7.06 percentage points compared to last year. The daily average hot metal output was 240.13 tons, a decrease of 0.62 tons from last week and an increase of 19.24 tons compared to last year [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term price fluctuations of finished products are large, and they operate in a volatile and weak manner. The price is mainly affected by fundamentals. Although supply has decreased due to pre - parade production restrictions, it is likely to resume after the parade, while downstream demand is unlikely to change substantially in the short term. [1][2][3] 3. Key Points from the Report Steel Production and Supply - As of September 1, 23 sample steel enterprises with 89 blast furnaces in Tangshan have carried out blast furnace shutdown and maintenance as planned. There are 16 newly - added blast furnaces for maintenance, and the rest are mainly for rotational maintenance and production reduction. The theoretical daily impact on hot metal output is about 122,300 tons (including previously maintained blast furnaces). The capacity utilization rate is 74.62%, down 14.21% from August 27 and 10.35% from the same period last year. Most blast furnaces are expected to resume production on September 4. [2] - On September 3, production restrictions were implemented in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region before the parade, leading to a decline in supply. However, supply is likely to resume after the parade according to market research. [2] Market and Policy - The Shanghai mortgage policy was implemented on September 1. The minimum interest rate for new first - home mortgages is 3.05%, and the minimum interest rate for new second - home mortgages is 3.09%. Second - home mortgage loans with an existing interest rate higher than 3.36% can be lowered to 3.36%. [2] Market Sales - In August, about 84,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in China, a slight 1% decrease from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative sales of heavy - duty trucks in China were about 708,000, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. It is almost certain that the annual sales will exceed 1 million. [2] Product Price - Finished products continued to be weak yesterday, with the rebar 2601 contract once falling below 3,100 and the hot - rolled coil 2601 contract falling below 3,300. [2] 4. Later Concerns - Macro - policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand. [3]

Group 1 - The report presents the change in sector trading volume [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The demand for raw materials remains relatively high, while the reduction in coal mine production is lower than expected, and mines are slightly accumulating inventory. In the short term, market sentiment is still fluctuating, and coal and coke prices are oscillating. [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices oscillated overall and weakened at night. Last week, the coal mine accident and the increasing expectation of overseas interest rate cuts led to a rise in commodities only on Monday, and then the prices weakened again. There is no further upward driving force in the short - term market. Attention should be paid to recent steel mill production restrictions. [3] Spot Market - On the spot side, the high - priced resources at some coal mine points have weak sales, and the prices are stable for the time being. This week, coke enterprises in Hebei started the 8th round of price increase, and mainstream steel mills have not responded yet. [3] Steel Mill Data - This week's data shows that steel mills have not significantly reduced production, and molten iron production remains high. The overall intensity of production restrictions is weaker than that during the 2019 military parade. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills is 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week and an increase of 59.74 percentage points compared with last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of steel mills is 90.02%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points from last week and an increase of 7.06 percentage points compared with last year. The daily average molten iron production is 240.13 tons, a decrease of 0.62 tons from last week and an increase of 19.24 tons compared with last year. [3] Coal Mine Situation - This week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi have concentrated production cuts. Some coal mines in Lvliang are affected by geological conditions, and safety inspections in Linfen are becoming stricter, resulting in a significant decline in coal mine output. By tracking the resumption progress of shut - down coal mines, coal mine output is likely to increase slightly next week. However, before September 3rd, main production area coal mines will focus on ensuring safe production, and some coal mines may arrange short - term production cuts. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - For building materials, the price is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][3] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to be high and volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Impact**: Yunnan and Guizhou's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is from mid - January, and the expected resumption is from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - **Market Situation**: Building materials prices continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] - **Later Concerns**: Macro policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Ingots - **Macro Situation**: The market still worries about the Fed's independence. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is over 87% [2] - **Demand Side**: As August ends, the "Golden September and Silver October" is approaching. The weekly开工率 of downstream industries shows signs of recovery. The开工率 of domestic aluminum profile leading enterprises increased by 1.5 percentage points to 52%, and the overall开工率 of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7%. However, the开工 rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly to 56.4%, and it is expected to have limited upward space in September [3] - **Inventory Situation**: On August 28, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 620,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from the previous Monday. The absolute price of aluminum ingots dropped slightly, and the receiving sentiment improved, but it has not reached the level to stimulate large - scale replenishment [3] - **Price Outlook**: With repeated macro - interest - rate cut expectations, it is expected to be high in the near term, and subsequent attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend. The price is expected to be high and volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, mine - end news, macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [3][4]

Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - The external macro - influence is more positive, and there are still incremental expectations for domestic monetary and fiscal policies in the later stage. The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, while the demand side remains resilient. The overall supply - demand relationship has shifted from tight - balance to balance. In the short term, iron ore lacks an obvious upward driver, and its price is expected to follow the market trend [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Logic - Yesterday, the black - series commodities traded under the weak reality. The reasons are the pressure of futures - spot convergence in the near - month delivery logic, the suppression of the main contract price rebound by the cost of warehouse receipts of iron ore and coking coal 09 contracts, and the decline in the sentiment of the equity market which also suppresses the black - series sentiment. The super - seasonal inventory accumulation of rebar at the finished - product end has depressed the valuation of the black - series, and the high - level decline of blast - furnace profits has limited the space for molten iron increase. The unexpected increase in supply has also suppressed the market [2] Supply - The overseas ore shipments have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level. The shipments of Australian Rio Tinto and FMG mines have increased significantly, while the Brazilian shipments have declined significantly after reaching a historical high, and the non - mainstream shipments have also declined from a high level. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level, and the supply - side pressure has weakened [2] Demand - The domestic daily average molten iron output has increased slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average molten iron output of 240.75 (a month - on - month increase of 0.09). The profitability rate of steel mills has declined from a high level, and the blast - furnace profit has also continuously declined. The short - process steelmaking has fallen into an overall loss again, which protects the demand for iron ore to a certain extent. The support of domestic demand for prices has weakened marginally. Attention should be paid to whether the molten iron output can remain high and the military parade production - restriction in North China [2] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has declined month - on - month. The port inventory has continued to accumulate slightly. With the increase in shipments and the decline in molten iron output, the inventory is expected to remain stable or increase slightly in the short term [2] Price - This week, the price will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures (2601 contract) will be in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market FE09 price of about 101 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The expectation of domestic steel mills' blast furnace production cuts has strengthened, which will have a phased impact on raw material demand. Short - term market sentiment is still fluctuating, and the price volatility of coking coal and coke has intensified [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Logic - Yesterday, the overall price of coking coal fluctuated weakly. Last week, the coal mine accident and the rising expectation of overseas interest rate cuts only drove the commodity price up on Monday, and then the price weakened again. There is no further upward driver in the short - term market, and attention should be paid to the recent steel mill production restrictions [2] - On the spot side, the high - price resources of some coal mines have weak trading, and the price remains stable. This week, coke enterprises in Hebei region started the 8th round of price increase, but the mainstream steel mills have not responded [2] Environmental Protection and Production Restrictions - According to Mysteel's research, steel mills in the Tangshan area will gradually shut down and overhaul blast furnaces at the end of the month. It is expected that 16 new blast furnaces will be overhauled, with a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 116600 tons (including the previously overhauled blast furnaces). The capacity utilization rate will drop to 78.13%, a decrease of 10.7% compared with the current (August 27) and a decrease of 6.84% compared with the same period last year [2] Coal Mine End - This week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi have concentrated production cuts. Some coal mines in Lvliang are affected by geological conditions, and safety inspections in Linfen are becoming stricter, resulting in a significant decline in coal mine output. By tracking the resumption progress of shut - down coal mines, coal mine output is likely to increase slightly next week. However, before September 3, coal mines in the main production areas will focus on ensuring safe production, and some coal mines may arrange short - term production cuts [2]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and the inventory continues to accumulate. Attention should be paid to the evolution of consumption [1][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - The short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production and carry out maintenance from mid - January during the Spring Festival, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output reduction of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated within a range. The market is closely watching the upcoming US inflation data to find clues about the Fed's interest rate cuts. After Trump tried to fire Fed Governor Cook, concerns about the Fed's independence persist [2] - The downstream demand is the core concern. The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% last week. Different sub - sectors have different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [3] - It is expected that the aluminum cable and aluminum plate sectors will continue to recover in late August, and the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season may further boost the demand for aluminum foil and aluminum profiles. However, as the aluminum price rebounds, the terminal shipment volume declines again, and the spot procurement volume of processing enterprises decreases significantly [3] - On Wednesday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas was 466,500 tons, a cumulative increase of 3,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory inflection point has not yet arrived, and the downstream procurement sentiment is weak [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner [2]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mining news [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Building Materials - **Production suspension situation**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel producers' suspension time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, with resumption expected between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with an expected daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the suspension [1][2]. - **Real estate transaction data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - **Market situation**: The price of building materials continued to decline and reached a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to move down. This year's winter storage was sluggish, with weak price support [2]. - **Follow - up focus**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [2]. Aluminum Ingots - **Macro - situation**: After US President Trump dismissed a Federal Reserve governor, market confidence in the Fed wavered. Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in September, and the market currently expects an over 87% chance of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September [1]. - **Demand situation**: The demand side is the core concern. Some enterprises have started to stock up for the peak - season orders. The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% last week. Different sub - sectors showed varying degrees of change, with some increasing and the regenerative aluminum operating rate slightly decreasing by 0.1 percentage points to 53.0% [2]. - **Inventory situation**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas increased by 4,500 tons to 463,500 tons on Tuesday. The traditional off - season led to weak demand and continuous inventory accumulation. Holders were not optimistic about the future premium and actively sold, suppressing the spot premium [2]. - **Market outlook**: The price is expected to run at a high level recently, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend. The off - season and its actual impact will still put pressure on the upside [3]. - **Follow - up focus**: Macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mining resumption, and consumption release [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The external macro - influence is more positive, and there are still incremental expectations for monetary and fiscal policies in the later period. The price this week will be more affected by the macro - situation. The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, the demand side remains resilient, and the overall supply - demand relationship shifts from balanced and tight to balanced. The short - term price will mainly follow the market trend. The price will fluctuate strongly this week, with the main contract of Dalian Iron (2601 contract) in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market FE09 price of about 101 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the black - series traded with strong expectations and weak reality, and the overall price rose due to macro - sentiment. The continuous three - week over - seasonal inventory accumulation of rebar at the finished - product end has suppressed the valuation level of the black - series, and the carbon element's disk valuation has returned. The high - profit of blast furnaces has declined from the high level, limiting the space for hot - metal increase. The unexpected increase in supply has also suppressed the disk, and the price generally follows the sector trend [3]. Supply - The overseas ore shipments have slightly declined but still remain at a relatively high level. Among them, the shipments of Rio Tinto and FMG mines in Australia have significantly increased, the shipments from Brazil have dropped significantly after reaching a historical high, and the shipments from non - mainstream mines have also dropped from the high level. The arrival volume is at a medium - to - high level, and overall, the supply - side pressure has weakened [3]. Demand - The domestic daily average hot - metal volume has increased slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average hot - metal output at 240.75 (a week - on - week increase of 0.09). The profitability rate of steel mills has declined from the high level, and the blast - furnace profit has also continuously decreased. The short - process steelmaking has fallen into full - scale losses again, which protects the demand for iron ore to a certain extent. Overall, the support of domestic demand for prices has weakened marginally. Later, attention should be paid to whether the hot - metal can remain at a high level and the military - parade production - restriction trends in North China [3]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has decreased week - on - week. The port inventory has continued to accumulate slightly this period. In the future, with the increase in shipments and the decline of hot - metal production from the high level, it is expected that the inventory will generally remain stable or increase slightly in the short term [3].