晨报 成材 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 成材：弱需求令价格承压 逻辑：多名消息人士透露，由于特朗普政府对中国商品加征的畸高关 税将导致供应链危机，特朗普政府内部已开始讨论组建一个工作组，以便 在未能与中国政府谈判取得突破的情况下紧急处理这些问题。上周末唐山 钢坯持稳报 2940 元/吨。上周建材钢厂检修产线 6 条，环比下降 4 个；上 周复产产线 16 条，环比增加 7 条。按照轧机产量测算，因检修&复产导致 产量减少 17.18 万吨。预计本周检修&复产将导致产量减少 9.95 万吨。国 家统计局：2025 年 3 月，中国钢筋产量 1861.1 万吨，同比增 5.6%；1-3 月累计产量 4810.7 万吨，同比降 2.9%。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材上周延续跌势，五个交易日连收阴线，价格重心不断下移。上周 的周度数据较好，五大材库存下降，表需有较大上升，尤其螺纹钢周度基 本面改善明显，但钢价仍在下行。一方面美国的贸易战仍在延续，市场情 绪偏冷；另一方面国内统计局数据显示一季度地产有改善，但整体仍处低 迷阶段， ...

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：关注需求变动 建议偏空对待 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 18 日 逻辑：短期 "对等关税"对市场情绪影响边际减弱，市场交投重心转向产业基本面，中美 贸易关税升级后将对钢材出口需求形成实质性利空影响，钢材供给端尚未出现减量，钢厂利润 进一步压缩，铁矿石需求处于高位水平但高炉利润走弱以及出口压力将限制铁水上行高度，铁 矿石需求存在见顶风险，后期关注产业链负反馈压力。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供应方面：本期主流矿山存在季未冲量后的季节性下滑预期，一般存在 1 周左右发运环比 减量，非 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：关注宏观数据指引 铝价区间运行 投资咨询业务资格： 有色金属：于梦雪 宏观上关税政策反复不确定仍大，铝价区间震荡谨防事件扰动波动加 剧，后续需继续密切关注市场情绪变化，以及回调后下游拿货情况对价格 的支撑力度。 观点：预计价格短期区间震荡，关注宏观情绪和下游开工。 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 18 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一 ...

晨报 工业硅 工业硅：供需两弱需求持续低迷，硅价继续走弱 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：昨日工业硅现货市场弱势运行，下游市场接赞持续以刚需为主，工 业硅库存压力并未减弱目前华东通氧 553#硅在 9800-10100 元/吨，华东 421# 硅在 10400-11000 元/吨吨。期货端：工业硅主力 2505 合约收盘价格 9015 元， 幅度-0.93%，跌 85 元，单日减仓 10944 手。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供给端：市场成交情况持续低迷，部分厂家因利润压力选择减产，但整体 减产幅度有限，但对市场支 ...

晨报 煤焦 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 18 日 逻辑：昨日黑色金属板块整体震荡偏弱运行，05 合约临近交割月， 当前焦煤供应相对充足情况下，偏空的交割逻辑促使煤价持续走弱。现货 方面，焦价首轮提涨落地，存在继续提涨预期；焦煤市场参与者对后市信 心依旧偏弱，蒙煤价格短暂上涨后再度回落。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤焦：基本面拖累 价格弱势难改 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议 ...

晨报 成材 成材：下游低迷 震荡偏弱运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 18 日 逻辑：根据钢联周度数据，螺纹钢产量下降 3.15 万吨至 229.22 万吨， 热卷产量上升1.1万吨至314.4万吨，五大材产量上升1.65万吨至872.71 万吨；螺纹钢总库存下降 44.6 万吨至 733.16 万吨，热卷总库存下降 9.76 万吨至 374.55 万吨，五大材总库存下降 75.93 万吨至 1584.68 万吨；螺 纹钢表需上升 21.14 万吨至 273.82 万吨，热卷表需上升 8.83 万吨至 324.16 万吨，五大材总表需上升 48.10 万吨至 948.64 万吨。国家统计局： 3 月份中国钢筋产量 1861.1 万吨，同比增 5.6%；1-3 月份产量 4810.7 万 吨，同比降 2.9%。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材昨日冲高回落，尽管周度基本面较好，五大材库存下降，表需有 较大上升，尤其螺纹钢周度基本面改善明显，但钢材价格午后仍然走低。 国内一季度房地产数据显示下游有改善，但整体一般，行业仍在偏低迷阶 段。近期国际宏观和国内需求对钢价仍有压力。 ...

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：关注需求端变动 建议仍偏空对待 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 库存方面：钢厂库存水平继续下降，对等关税影响将强化终端需求悲观预期，保持偏低库 存水平是理性的；由于国内钢厂刚性需求以及到港量连续两周回落，本期港口库存水平环比回 落。4 月预计库存整体处于上升态势且库存绝对水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成压力。 原材料： 冯艳成 观点：短期等关税影响边际减弱，关税影响下国内财政政策及货币政策增量预期增强。铁 矿石供需趋于宽松预期不变，短期若出现反弹，仍是较好做空机会，整体价格以区间运行为主。 策略：建议区间操作，2509 合约价格区间 690~720 元/吨。 有色金属：于梦雪 后期关注/风险因素：终端需求变动、主流矿山发运、对等关税影响 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The industrial silicon market is currently experiencing a situation of weak supply and demand. Under the continuous pressure of the external environment, demand has become even more sluggish, and inventory remains at a high level. As a result, silicon prices continue to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotation - The market quotation of industrial silicon declined yesterday, and the futures price dropped significantly. The current prices are as follows: East China oxygenated 553 silicon is at 9,900 - 10,100 yuan/ton, and East China 421 silicon is at 10,400 - 11,000 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the futures main contract si2505 was 9,020, a decrease of 2.28%. Funds are constantly shifting to far - month contracts. The main contract reduced positions by 12,645 lots, with a position of 133,800 lots and a trading volume of 8.045 billion yuan [1]. Supply Side - In the north (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Shandong), the weekly supply of silicon enterprises in production is temporarily stable, but they are under production pressure. The market is sluggish, and the loss of enterprises is widening. Yunnan is still in the dry season, with stable start - up, and the future start - up willingness is average. With the production cuts of the three major downstream industries, demand is continuously weakening, and futures - cash merchants are selling at a small discount on the basis of the basis [1]. Demand Side - The price of polysilicon is weakly stable, and the market has a strong bearish sentiment. Some silicon material enterprises' quotations are loosening. The current prices are: re - feeding material is at 37 - 39 yuan/kg, dense material is at 35 - 38 yuan/kg, cauliflower material is at 32 - 34 yuan/kg, and N - type material is at 41 - 42 yuan/kg [1]. - The spot price of organic silicon DMC continues to decline. The mainstream opening price in the market is referred to as 13,000 - 14,000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). The game between buyers' price - pressing and sellers' concessions continues, the trading atmosphere is light, the single - transaction volume is generally low, and the market currently lacks a catalyst to break the current deadlock [1]. - The price of aluminum alloy ingots is stable, but enterprise sales are poor. End - users purchase on demand, and the finished product inventory is slightly increasing [1]. Inventory On April 16, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 69,806 lots, a single - day decrease of 386 lots, and the warehouse receipt inventory is still at a high level [1].

晨报 成材 成材：宏观和需求双弱 钢价震荡下行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 17 日 逻辑：商务部新闻发言人 16 日表示，中国出口美国的个别商品累计 各种名目的关税已达到 245%。美方将关税工具化、武器化已经到了毫无 理性的地步。对于美方这种毫无意义的关税数字游戏，中方不予理会。国 家统计局：3 月份中国粗钢产量 9284 万吨，同比增 4.6%；1-3 月份产量 25933 万吨，同比增 0.6%。本周，唐山主流样本钢厂平均钢坯含税成本 2918 元/吨，周环比下调 6 元/吨，与 4 月 16 日普方坯出厂价格 2940 元/ 吨相比，钢厂平 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Tariff policy disturbances persist, and market sentiment changes dominate price movements. Fundamentally, raw material demand is acceptable, and periodic restocking stimulates the price support of coking coal and coke in the spot market. However, the increase in raw material supply is also significant, and the overall supply - demand situation remains loose. Prices are expected to remain in a weak and volatile state [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content - **Market Performance**: Tariff policy disturbances persist. The black metal sector showed overall weak and volatile performance yesterday, with coking coal having the largest decline, and the main contract gradually shifting to the 09 contract. In the spot market, the first round of coke price increase was implemented, and the price of Mongolian coal slightly declined [2]. - **Production Data**: In March, China's raw coal production was 440 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The cumulative production in the first quarter was 1.2 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%. In March, China's coke production was 41.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.87%. The cumulative production in the first quarter was 123.19 million tons, an increase of 3.428 million tons or 2.86% year - on - year. In March, China's pig iron production was 75.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The cumulative pig iron production in the first quarter was 216.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In March, crude steel production was 92.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The cumulative crude steel production in the first quarter was 259.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The increase in raw material supply is higher than that of downstream products, indicating a loose supply - demand relationship for coking coal and coke. Currently, the average daily hot metal output of steel mills has increased to 2.4022 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 154,700 tons. Hot metal production is close to the relatively high level of the same period in previous years. There is positive demand feedback in the short - term industrial chain, and steel mills replenish raw materials. The inventory of upstream coking coal and coke gradually transfers to the downstream, stimulating strong price - support sentiment for raw materials. However, the downstream procurement pace has slowed down month - on - month, and the market feedback suggests that the restocking of steel mills and coking plants is almost over, and the inventory level of coking coal and coke is still higher than the same period [2].