Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, and the industrial cost has collapsed. The contract value is approaching the cash cost of leading enterprises, and it is accelerating to find the bottom in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Logic - The industrial silicon spot market was weakly stable yesterday. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon was 10,000 - 10,200 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract si2506 of industrial silicon futures was 8,325, down 2.57%. It continued to decline with a significant increase in positions. The main contract added 13,001 positions in a single day, with the current position at 179,500 lots and the trading volume at 11.279 billion yuan [1] Supply - end - The industrial silicon production in Gansu was relatively stable, but there might be a shift to production reduction due to price impacts recently. The output of 97 silicon remained low, and it was difficult to increase the short - term production. The operating rate of intermediate frequency furnaces was low, and the price was still at a low level, but the inquiry situation of traders improved. The market continued to decline, some manufacturers lowered their quotes, the "buy on rising" sentiment intensified, and buyers were still dominant. There were a small number of transactions of low - priced goods from some spot - futures traders [1] Demand - end - The price of polysilicon was temporarily stable, but the demand further declined, and the silicon material price was under pressure. The prices of N - type dense material, N - type granular silicon, N - type re - feeding material, and N - type mixed material were 38 - 40 yuan/kg, 35 - 38 yuan/kg, 39 - 43 yuan/kg, and 36 - 38 yuan/kg respectively. The prices of downstream silicon wafers and battery cells were lowered again, and the market was obviously weak. The rapid decline in demand led to an imbalance in supply and demand in each link. The price of organic silicon DMC fluctuated. The market's mainstream opening price was 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Some new units of monomer plants entered planned maintenance in May, and the price of the organic silicon spot market stopped falling and rebounded. Downstream enterprises were still digesting pre - holiday inventories, and there was no significant increase in demand in the short term. The spot prices of aluminum alloy ingots in some regions decreased, the terminal demand was continuously weak, the phenomenon of production reduction or suspension of procurement by die - casting enterprises increased, the market trading atmosphere was cold, and alloy ingot enterprises were accumulating inventories [1] Inventory - On May 6, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 68,930 lots, a single - day decrease of 360 lots. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The market lacks highlights, the fundamentals are under pressure, showing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the steel price lacks upward drivers. The view is that the driving force is weak and the overall situation is under pressure [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalog Market Background - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on May 7th to introduce "a package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations". The Minister of Finance stated that China will adopt more proactive macro policies and is confident in achieving the 5% growth target in 2025 [2] Cost and Profit - On May 6th, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,341 yuan/ton, with an average profit loss of 80 yuan/ton and a valley electricity profit of 26 yuan/ton [2] Production and Maintenance - Last week, the number of steel mill maintenance production lines decreased. There were 11 provinces with steel mills involved in maintenance and resumption of production, including 4 maintenance production lines and 5 resumption production lines. According to the rolling mill output calculation, the production decreased by 156,000 tons due to maintenance and resumption. It is expected that the production will decrease by 119,200 tons due to maintenance and resumption this week, and the impact will decline [2] Market Situation - The finished products rose and then fell yesterday. The market has no obvious improvement in the downstream, and the previous rumor of crude steel production restriction has limited and unsustainable support for prices. Subsequently, entering the seasonal off - season, the steel price lacks upward drivers [2] Later Concerns - Later, attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [3]

晨报 铝锭 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏弱震荡。美国关税的不确定性导致美国消费者信心数 据恶化，美联储主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For finished products, it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the price center of gravity continues to move downward. The market sentiment is pessimistic in the context of weak supply and demand, and this year's winter storage is sluggish with limited price support. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [2][3]. - For aluminum ingots, it is expected that the price will fluctuate within a short - term range. The downstream is at the stage of alternating between peak and off - peak seasons, and the inventory is still being depleted. Attention should be paid to the support of subsequent inventory performance on prices, as well as macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [2][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1成材 (Finished Products) - **Production Shutdown Impact**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown and maintenance during the Spring Festival are mostly from mid - January, with resumption expected from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January. Some individual steel mills may shut down after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3]. - **Real Estate Transaction Data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - **Market Situation**: The finished products continued to fluctuate downward yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity keeps moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3]. 3.2铝锭 (Aluminum Ingots) - **Production Situation**: In April 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.6% year - on - year and decreased by 2.9% month - on - month. In May, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level. The second - batch capacity replacement project of an aluminum plant from Shandong to Yunnan is expected to start in the third quarter, and the first - batch project is expected to achieve output in May. Recently, some enterprises have carried out capacity maintenance, which has little impact on the supply side [3]. - **Demand Situation**: Before the festival, the start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 61.6% from the previous week and decreased by 2.8 percentage points year - on - year. Except for the aluminum cable industry, the start - up rates of other sectors have declined to varying degrees. The traditional peak season for aluminum downstream is coming to an end, and the seasonal decline in terminal demand and overseas trade frictions will put double pressure on the downstream start - up rate [3]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 6, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 636,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous Monday [3]. - **Macro Situation**: The domestic macro - environment has a positive atmosphere, while overseas, Trump's policy attitude is changeable, and there are many uncertainties in the tariff war, which puts pressure on the market [4].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The industry lacks upward drivers and is in a weak consolidation phase, with overall pressure due to weak downstream demand and entering the seasonal off - season [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Data Construction Steel - In April, the daily average trading volume of national construction steel was 11,660 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.93% [3] Hot - Rolled Coil - In April, the total output of sample hot - rolled coil steel mills was 1.2679 billion tons, the final inventory was 2.8286 billion tons, and the apparent demand was 3.2436 billion tons [3] Real Estate - In April, the average price of new residential buildings in 100 cities was 16,764 yuan per square meter, a structural month - on - month increase of 0.14% and a year - on - year increase of 2.50% - In April, the average price of second - hand residential buildings in 100 cities was 13,892 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.23% [3] Market Situation - During the holiday, overseas markets showed mixed trends, and the overseas iron ore market declined slightly. The macro - environment has limited impact on black - series products - Before the holiday, the performance of finished products was weak. Although there were rumors of crude steel production restrictions driving up steel prices, the price quickly gave back all the gains due to weak downstream demand - The market is currently trading based on fundamental logic, and steel prices lack upward drivers as it enters the seasonal off - season [3]

晨报 工业硅 工业硅：处于产能出清阶段，硅价加速探底 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 整理 逻辑：上周工业硅市场继续下跌，部分牌号现货价格有近 250 元/吨降幅。 目前华东通氧 553#硅在 9300-9500 元/吨，华东 421#硅在 10100-10300 元/吨。 期货端：五一节前最后一个交易日，资金避险减仓明显，期货主力合约 si2506 收盘价为 8540，-1.21%，主力单日减仓 28618 手，当前持仓为 16.65 万手。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供给端：本周新疆大厂有继续减产计划，据悉目前在开矿热炉 22 台，减产 后 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [2] Core Viewpoint - The short - term domestic macro - policy is in a window period, the Sino - US tariff conflict has not improved significantly. Although the iron ore is strong in the real - time, the medium - and long - term pattern of supply is loose. It is recommended to take a short - side approach. The short - term supply - demand relationship improvement supports the price, which moves in a range. It is advisable to short at high prices and avoid chasing long positions [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The global shipment has rebounded overall this period, with a slight increase in shipments from Australia and non - mainstream regions. May is the peak season for foreign ore shipments, and it is expected that shipments will maintain a steady upward trend, with the marginal support from the supply side weakening [2] Demand - Domestic demand is at a high level in the same historical period. The molten iron output has reached around 244 + tons per day (according to the Steel Union), only lower than the same period in 2023 (245.88) and exceeding the highest level of last year (239.94). The high demand in the short - term supports the price, but the profit of blast furnace steel mills has declined due to the falling prices of finished products. The impact of tariffs on exports will gradually appear, and the increase and duration of molten iron output are expected to be limited [2] Inventory - The inventory of imported ore in steel mills has increased slightly, and pre - holiday restocking will drive up the inventory level. The port inventory has started to accumulate this period because of the significant increase in unloading and warehousing volume. Considering the high domestic demand, the port inventory will remain relatively stable or tend to decline. Later, attention should be paid to the increase in supply shipments [2] Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range trading. The price range of the 2509 contract this week is 690 - 720 yuan per ton [2]

晨报 工业硅 整理 逻辑：昨日国内工业硅现货价格再次下挫低位，行情弱势难改，现货亏本 出售情况明显，生产压力累积。目前华东通氧 553#硅在 9400-9600 元/吨，华 东 421#硅在 10200-10400 元/吨。期货端：昨日期货主力 si2506 增仓下跌明显， 开盘即日内最高，尾盘下跌加速，收盘价为 8540，-2.68%，日增仓 7060 手， 当前主力持仓总数为 19.52 万手。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 工业硅：供需矛盾难解价格不断下挫，硅价延续弱势 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 供给端：新疆企业减产计划再度传出，目前尚 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：盘面震荡偏弱 节前注意持仓风险 基本面上，目前钢厂保持较高的生产率，上周日均铁水产量超预期增 至 244.35 万吨，环比前一周增加 4.23 万吨，同比去年增加 15.63 万吨， 焦炭等原料刚性需求较好，叠加关税压力缓和，市场情绪回升，支撑煤焦 提涨情绪。但铁水已处于往年同期高位水平，继续提产空间有限，近期钢 协指出在当前需求下滑、市场下行的背景下，减产已是行业共识，亟须转 化为统一行动，目前部分钢厂发布 5 月份检修计划，预计铁水将在 5 月见 顶，后期存在需求负反馈的风险。供应端，焦化厂利润改善，保持稳步增 产趋势；煤矿端生产积极性同样较高，矿山端焦原煤库存量继续攀升。总 体来看煤焦供应端增量的压力仍存。 原材料：程 鹏 观点：关税形势缓和，但仍存不确定性，持续 ...

原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 成材 成材：节前规避风险 钢价偏弱整理 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 成材昨日震荡下跌，回吐周一涨幅。此前的粗钢限产传闻一度带动钢 价反弹，但实际下游疲弱的情况则限制了钢价涨幅，且五一假期临近进一 步导致市场趋于谨慎。政治局会议无超预期政策，市场回归基本面逻辑， 后续进入季节性淡季，钢价缺乏向上驱动。 观点：驱动不强，整体承压。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包 ...