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华泰期货流动性日报-20250828
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 03:59
Group 1: Report Core View - The report provides an overview of market liquidity on August 27, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, and trading-to-holding ratios for various sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building material sectors [1][2] Group 2: Sector - by - Sector Summary Stock Index Sector - Trading volume was 1038.53 billion yuan, a +38.11% change from the previous trading day; holding amount was 1400.76 billion yuan, a +4.88% change; trading - to - holding ratio was 72.79% [1] Treasury Bond Sector - Trading volume was 476.14 billion yuan, a - 1.18% change from the previous trading day; holding amount was 778.86 billion yuan, a - 0.35% change; trading - to - holding ratio was 63.09% [1] Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal) Sector - Basic metal trading volume was 410.11 billion yuan, a +30.41% change from the previous trading day; holding amount was 502.79 billion yuan, a +0.88% change; trading - to - holding ratio was 96.83%. Precious metal trading volume was 212.94 billion yuan, a +4.06% change; holding amount was 424.24 billion yuan, a - 1.80% change; trading - to - holding ratio was 55.65% [1] Energy Chemical Sector - Trading volume was 469.19 billion yuan, a - 0.43% change from the previous trading day; holding amount was 427.16 billion yuan, a - 0.89% change; trading - to - holding ratio was 84.33% [1] Agricultural Product Sector - Trading volume was 325.60 billion yuan, a +8.06% change from the previous trading day; holding amount was 570.83 billion yuan, a - 0.68% change; trading - to - holding ratio was 54.00% [1] Black Building Material Sector - Trading volume was 295.59 billion yuan, a +0.59% change from the previous trading day; holding amount was 370.72 billion yuan, a - 0.88% change; trading - to - holding ratio was 71.18% [2]
聚烯烃日报:大榭石化投产,新增产能放量-20250827
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 09:45
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - The second - line 450,000 - ton/year PP new device of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical's second - phase project has been officially put into operation, and the first - line 450,000 - ton/year is expected to be put into operation next month, with increasing supply pressure in the medium - to - long term. The number of PE parking and maintenance devices has increased, slightly alleviating the supply pressure, but the overall current operation is still at a relatively high level, with inventory accumulation in production enterprises and certain de - stocking pressure upstream. The PP operation rate has remained flat month - on - month, with a slight decline in inventory at upstream and mid - stream levels. International oil prices are showing a weak trend, oil - based production profits are acceptable, propane prices have risen slightly, and PDH - based PP profits are near the break - even point. Downstream demand is recovering slowly, with the agricultural film entering the seasonal demand conversion stage and slow follow - up of terminal orders for packaging films, plastic weaving, etc. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Charts include the trend of the plastic futures main contract, LL East China - main contract basis, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] 2. Production Profits and Operation Rates - PE operation rate is 78.7% (- 5.5%), PP operation rate is 78.2% (+ 0.3%). PE oil - based production profit is 254.2 yuan/ton (- 78.3), PP oil - based production profit is - 325.8 yuan/ton (- 78.3), PDH - based PP production profit is 25.7 yuan/ton (- 62.5) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Differences - Charts involve HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [28][35][36] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 39.0 yuan/ton (+ 5.2), PP import profit is - 551.6 yuan/ton (+ 5.3), PP export profit is 35.9 US dollars/ton (- 0.6) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operation and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operation rate is 14.5% (+ 0.7%), PE downstream packaging film operation rate is 49.9% (+ 0.8%), PP downstream plastic weaving operation rate is 42.0% (+ 0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film operation rate is 60.7% (- 0.5%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report does not provide specific inventory data, but mentions that PE production enterprises have inventory accumulation and upstream has de - stocking pressure, while PP upstream and mid - stream inventory has declined slightly [2]
股指期权日报-20250827
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 09:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No core viewpoint explicitly stated in the provided content. 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On August 26, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 2.3155 million contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 2.2435 million contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 2.7379 million contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 0.2355 million contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 2.451 million contracts; SSE 50 index options was 0.056 million contracts; CSI 300 index options was 0.2242 million contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 0.2598 million contracts [1]. - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on the same day, such as the total trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 1.6146 million contracts, with 0.945 million call contracts and 0.6696 million put contracts [20]. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.39, with a month - on - month change of +0.07; the open interest PCR was 1.15, with a month - on - month change of - 0.01. Similar data is provided for other types of options [2]. - The table presents the turnover PCR, its month - on - month change, open interest PCR, and its month - on - month change for different index ETF options, e.g., for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai), the turnover PCR was 0.39 (+0.05) and the open interest PCR was 1.53 (+0.08) [28]. Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 25.39%, with a month - on - month change of - 1.58%; the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 24.52%, with a month - on - month change of +0.19%. Similar data is available for other options [3]. - The table shows the VIX and its month - on - month change for various index ETF options, such as the VIX of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 30.28% (+0.92%) [41].
油料日报:油料价格偏弱,部分油厂入市-20250827
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 09:33
Report Industry Investment Rating - For both soybeans and peanuts, the strategy is rated as neutral [2][4] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market shows that futures prices are fluctuating. In the Northeast, low - protein soybean prices decline due to state - reserve grain auctions. In the South, the increase in market sales during the back - to - school season has limited support for soybean prices. With new soybeans about to be listed, many alternative food varieties, and continuous release of old grain from state - reserve warehouses, the soybean price will oscillate [2] - The peanut market also has fluctuating prices. Continuous rainfall in some peanut - producing areas affects the spring peanut listing progress. Low downstream purchasing enthusiasm, reduced purchase contract prices, and a dull trading atmosphere are observed [3] Summary by Related Content Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract was 3974.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 18.00 yuan/ton (- 0.45%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A11 + 266, a change of - 2 (- 32.14%) from the previous day. In the Northeast, prices in some regions declined, while in the South, prices remained stable [1] Strategy - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [2] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 7834.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 38.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.49%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8470.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 150.00 yuan/ton (- 1.74%) from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 266.00, a change of - 38.00 (- 12.50%) from the previous day. New - season peanut prices were stable with a downward trend, and peanut oil prices showed some changes [2][3] Strategy - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [4]
现货市场略有转暖,盘面延续震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 09:25
Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; no specific ratings for inter - period and cross - variety strategies [3] Core View - The spot market for propylene has slightly warmed up, and the futures market has continued to fluctuate. South Korea's petrochemical industry's potential naphtha cracking capacity reduction may support overseas propylene prices. Supply is expected to tighten, but downstream profit pressure may limit price increases. Demand has short - term support but its sustainability is uncertain, and cost support has shifted upward [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6467 yuan/ton (-24), the East China spot price is 6475 yuan/ton (+25), the North China spot price is 6470 yuan/ton (+15), the East China basis is 8 yuan/ton (+49), and the North China basis is 3 yuan/ton (+39) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The propylene operating rate is 75% (+1%). Propylene CFR - Japan naphtha CFR is 193 US dollars/ton (-1), and propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 94 US dollars/ton (-3) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is - 276 yuan/ton (-13) [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 40% (+1.29%), production profit is - 120 yuan/ton (-65); epoxy propane operating rate is 74% (+2%), production profit is - 383 yuan/ton (-86); n - butanol operating rate is 89% (+0%), production profit is 357 yuan/ton (+21); octanol operating rate is 92% (+6%), production profit is 420 yuan/ton (-10); acrylic acid operating rate is 70% (-5%), production profit is 428 yuan/ton (-18); acrylonitrile operating rate is 73% (+1%), production profit is - 595 yuan/ton (-23); phenol - acetone operating rate is 78% (+1%), production profit is - 627 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in - factory inventory is 40320 tons (+3470) [1]
新能源及有色金属日报:淡旺季交换电解铝冶炼利润走扩-20250827
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 09:25
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminium: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminium positive spread, long AD11 short AL11 [10] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - At the transition between the off - season and peak season of consumption, the aluminium price shows a resonance between micro and macro factors. The Fed's expectation of a September interest rate cut has increased again, and the macro - situation is favorable with non - ferrous metals showing a generally strong and volatile trend. The supply side of the aluminium fundamentals has no pressure and runs stably, and consumption is showing a trend of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season [6]. - The alumina spot market has a situation where the domestic spot price is loosening, and the pattern of stronger in the south and weaker in the north continues. The import window is closed, but the import loss is limited. The cost is supported but lacks upward momentum, and the supply is in continuous surplus with inventory increasing [7][8]. - For aluminium alloy, the consumption is starting to transform from the off - season to the peak season, and the price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminium alloy enterprises are showing a seasonal repair trend [9]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminium Spot - East China A00 aluminium price is 20,780 yuan/ton, with a change of 0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; East China aluminium spot premium/discount is 0 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Central China A00 aluminium price is 20,620 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changes - 30 yuan/ton to - 160 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminium price is 20,730 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminium spot premium/discount changes - 10 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [1] Aluminium Futures - On August 26, 2025, the main SHFE aluminium contract opened at 20,750 yuan/ton, closed at 20,715 yuan/ton, with a change of - 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 20,775 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,680 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 103,054 lots, and the open interest was 251,409 lots [2] Aluminium Inventory - As of August 26, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminium ingot social inventory was 616,000 tons, with a change of 2.0 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 56,274 tons, with a change of - 396 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminium inventory was 478,075 tons, with a change of - 650 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On August 26, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,205 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,180 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,210 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,320 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,330 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 372 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On August 26, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 3,184 yuan/ton, closed at 3,069 yuan/ton, with a change of - 111 yuan/ton or - 3.49% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price reached 3,202 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,065 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 421,870 lots, and the open interest was 228,725 lots [2] Aluminium Alloy Price - On August 26, 2025, the Baotai civil raw aluminium purchase price was 15,800 yuan/ton, the mechanical raw aluminium purchase price was 15,900 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared to yesterday. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 20,200 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared to yesterday [3] Aluminium Alloy Inventory - The aluminium alloy social inventory is 52,100 tons, and the in - factory inventory is 60,300 tons [4] Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 20,097 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is 4 yuan/ton [5]
纯苯苯乙烯日报:后续苯乙烯检修增加,但同时拖累纯苯需求-20250827
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 08:04
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The potential reduction of 2.7 - 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity by South Korean petrochemical companies may have a greater impact on EB supply than BZ, as South Korean styrene accounts for 16% of overseas styrene capacity while South Korean cracked pure benzene accounts for only 3.5% of overseas total pure benzene capacity [3] - Pure benzene port inventory is slightly decreasing from a high level, but the absolute level remains high, and the port basis is waiting to strengthen further. Attention should be paid to the inventory pressure in the CPL - PA6 - nylon industry chain and the MDI inventory pressure in the aniline downstream. The performance of the downstream during the "Golden September and Silver October" period should be monitored [3] - Styrene port inventory is continuously accumulating due to high current operating rates. However, more EB maintenance is expected in September, which may lead to destocking but will also drag down pure benzene demand, so there is limited support for the unilateral price. Attention should be paid to the performance of the downstream during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [3] Summary by Directory 1. Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads of Pure Benzene and EB - Pure benzene main contract basis: -101 yuan/ton (+15) [1] - Pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread: -40 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton) [1] - Styrene main contract basis: 68 yuan/ton (+23 yuan/ton) [1] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee: 159 dollars/ton (-6 dollars/ton); FOB South Korea processing fee: 143 dollars/ton (-5 dollars/ton); US - South Korea spread: 60.7 dollars/ton (+2.0 dollars/ton) [1] - Styrene non - integrated production profit: -278 yuan/ton (-3 yuan/ton), expected to gradually compress [1] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory: 13.80 million tons (-0.60 million tons); operating rate not mentioned [1] - Styrene East China port inventory: 179,000 tons (+17,500 tons); East China commercial inventory: 84,000 tons (+7,500 tons); operating rate: 78.5% (+0.4%) [1] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit: 198 yuan/ton (+50 yuan/ton); operating rate: 60.98% (+2.90%) [2] - PS production profit: -102 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton); operating rate: 57.50% (+1.10%) [2] - ABS production profit: -220 yuan/ton (-77 yuan/ton); operating rate: 71.10% (+0.00%) [2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit: -1805 yuan/ton (+30); operating rate: 91.86% (-1.86%) [1] - Phenol - acetone production profit: -627 yuan/ton (+0); operating rate: 78.00% (+1.00%) [1] - Aniline production profit: -204 yuan/ton (-43); operating rate: 70.10% (-1.47%) [1] - Adipic acid production profit: -1250 yuan/ton (+27); operating rate: 65.50% (+3.80%) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards both pure benzene and styrene [4] - Basis and inter - period: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4] - Cross - variety: Expand the EB - BZ spread on dips in the short term, as the reduction of South Korean cracking capacity has a greater impact on EB than BZ [4]
新能源及有色金属日报:采买意愿仍较强,短期下方仍有支撑-20250827
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 08:03
2025-08-26,碳酸锂主力合约2511开于79260元/吨,收于79020元/吨,当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-0.75%。当日 成交量为559599手,持仓量为349496手,前一交易日持仓量368667手,根据SMM现货报价,目前基差为2080元/ 吨(电碳均价-期货)。当日碳酸锂仓单26690手,较上个交易日变化1060手。 碳酸锂现货:根据SMM数据,电池级碳酸锂报价79400-84000元/吨,较前一交易日变化-800元/吨,工业级碳酸锂 报价78800-80000元/吨,较前一交易日变化-800元/吨。6%锂精矿价格920美元/吨,较前一日变化0美元/吨。据SMM 数据,碳酸锂现货价格持续下跌,下游采购及点价行为较昨日略有增多。但部分厂商因此前有大量采购行为,本 周采购量级较上周相比有所收窄。下游整体采购心态转向谨慎,普遍观望等待价格进一步下调。当前处于"金九银 十"传统旺季周期,下游需求仍存在一定刚性支撑。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-27 采买意愿仍较强,短期下方仍有支撑 市场分析 根据最新统计周度数据,周度产量降低842吨至19138吨,以锂辉石生产产量增加,以云母生产产量 ...
国债期货日报:权益回调,国债期货大多收涨-20250827
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 08:03
Report Summary 1) Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - Domestic bond market faces short - term pressure from supply and capital disturbances. The central bank maintains a loose stance but with limited policy support, causing the rebound of Treasury bond futures to be weak due to rising capital interest rates. - The Fed's stance in the US has turned dovish, leading to improved short - term risk appetite and increased pressure on the steepening of the interest rate curve. - The differences in the capital and policy stances between the Chinese and US bond markets are widening, with China being moderately tight and the US moving towards easing [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and 0.00% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a - 0.20% month - on - month decrease and - 3.60% year - on - year decrease. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 431.26 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan (+0.24%); M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, up 0.50% (+6.02%); Manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, down 0.40% (-0.80%). - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 98.23, down 0.19 (-0.19%); USD/CNH (offshore) is 7.1541, down 0.014 (-0.19%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.47, down 0.02 (-1.15%); DR007 is 1.49, down 0.03 (-1.85%); R007 is 1.67, down 0.26 (-13.67%); AAA - rated 3 - month interbank certificates of deposit yield is 1.55, with no change (+0.00, - 0.11%); AA - AAA 1 - year credit spread is 0.09, up 0.01 (-0.11%) [9][10]. b. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report presents multiple charts related to the market, including the closing price trend of Treasury bond futures' main continuous contracts, the price change rate of each Treasury bond futures variety, the trend of the funds settled in each Treasury bond futures variety, the proportion of open interest in each Treasury bond futures variety, the net open - interest proportion of the top 20 in each Treasury bond futures variety, the long - short open - interest ratio of the top 20 in each Treasury bond futures variety, the spread between national development bonds and Treasury bonds, and the issuance of Treasury bonds [14][15][22]. c. Overview of the Money Market Capital Situation The report shows charts about the bank - to - bank pledged repo transaction statistics and local government bond issuance [25]. d. Spread Overview The report provides charts on the inter - period spread trend of each Treasury bond futures variety and various spot - bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [28][36][38]. e. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [48][51]. f. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents charts on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [53][59]. g. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report has charts on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [60][64][61]. h. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows charts on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [67][72]. 4) Strategies - Unilateral strategy: As the repo interest rate falls and the Treasury bond futures price fluctuates, it is recommended to short the 2512 contract at high prices [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the TF2512 basis [5]. - Hedging strategy: Since there is medium - term adjustment pressure, short - position holders can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [5].
新能源及有色金属日报:买卖双方拉锯,铜价再陷震荡格局-20250827
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 07:59
Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton [8] Core Views - The current copper concentrate trading is relatively active, but the TC price still cannot recover continuously. The downstream and terminal performance is relatively weak, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. However, due to the rising market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the copper price remains in a relatively strong pattern. It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper price operations, with the buying range roughly between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On August 26, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 79,600 yuan/ton and closed at 79,190 yuan/ton, a - 0.63% decline from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 79,290 yuan/ton and closed at 79,420 yuan/ton, a 0.29% increase from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Situation**: According to SMM, the spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper to the 2509 contract was 80 - 180 yuan/ton, with an average of 130 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton decline from the previous day. The spot price was 79,480 - 79,690 yuan/ton. The downstream's acceptance of high copper prices is low, but holders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and the downward space for spot premiums is expected to be limited [2] Important Information Summaries - **Tariffs and Fed News**: Trump said trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea were completed, and he will soon impose "high" tariffs on imported furniture, possibly up to 200%. Trump removed Fed理事 Lisa Cook, but Cook said Trump has no right to do so, and the Fed spokesman said the president can only remove a governor for "just cause" [3] - **Mine - end News**: Capstone Copper's Pinto Valley copper mine in Arizona obtained Copper Mark certification. First Quantum Mining shelved the plan to sell its minority stake in Zambian copper mines due to a $1 - billion gold deal that eased balance - sheet pressure [4] - **Smelting and Import News**: US metal traders are transshipping scrap copper to China through Canada, Mexico, and Vietnam to avoid China's 10% import tariff. China's direct imports of scrap copper from the US dropped sharply, but overall imports remained stable. The net long position of COMEX copper futures held by funds declined, but the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is still strong [5] - **Consumption News**: The domestic refined copper rod enterprise's operating rate rose 1.20 percentage points to 71.80% last week, mainly driven by the resumption of production of previously - overhauled enterprises. Downstream consumption is weak, and the overall market is lackluster. The raw material inventory decreased by 2.31% to 3.38 million tons, and the finished - product inventory decreased by 5.44% to 6.61 million tons [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 375 tons to 155,000 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 830 tons to 22,917 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased by 0.87 million tons to 12.30 million tons on August 25 [7] Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish, recommend buy - on - dips hedging with a buying range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton - **Arbitrage**: Suspended - **Options**: short put@77000 yuan/ton [8]