1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price is basically stable. After the production cut in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the futures price may rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand situation is poor, with increasing production, declining consumption, and rising inventory. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 4, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened and closed at 8910 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton ( - 0.50%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2601 main contract was 193,019 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 7,228 lots, an increase of 336 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. The social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on December 4 was 558,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous week [1] Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price continued to rise this week, with the mainstream price range at 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton, about 450 yuan/ton higher than the average price of the previous week [2] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended, and it is advisable to go long on contracts during the dry season at low prices [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 4, 2025, the main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 57,270 yuan/ton and closing at 56,915 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 0.05% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 116,653 lots, and the trading volume was 175,576 lots. The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased, with the polysilicon inventory at 291,000 tons (a month - on - month change of 3.38%) and the silicon wafer inventory at 21.30 GW (a month - on - month change of 9.23%). The weekly production of polysilicon was 25,800 tons (a month - on - month change of 7.50%), and the silicon wafer production was 11.95 GW (a month - on - month change of - 0.58%) [4] - In October, the polysilicon production was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September. In November, the production in the southwest region was expected to decline significantly [5] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 and 57,000 yuan/ton [6]

FICC日报 | 2025-12-05 国债期货集体收跌，日债持续承压 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进 一步促进消费政策措施。11月24日，国家发展改革委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。11月28 日，工信部组织召开动力和储能电池行业制造业企业座谈会，强调认真落实党中央关于综合整治"内卷式"竞争的 决策部署，加快推出针对性政策举措，依法依规治理动力和储能电池产业非理性竞争。数据方面，中国10月出口 （以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口" 和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，国内经济基础有待夯实。中国11 月官方制造业PMI环比回升至49.2，高技术制造业PMI连续10个月位于临界点50以上，受高基数影响非制造业PMI 小幅回落。党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出， 构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系。中国央行12月5日将开展100 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Urea spot prices have increased, but the sentiment for taking delivery has slowed. The operating rates of compound fertilizer in Northeast China and Hubei have continued to rise, and production scheduling in Shandong has increased, leading to an overall improvement in the operating rate. The melamine plant has resumed production, with the operating rate rebounding and rigid demand for procurement. The off - season storage continues to purchase. With the release of new production capacity, the supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose in the medium - to - long term. The gas - based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter will gradually start in December. Due to the follow - up of reserve demand, export stocking, and the improvement of compound fertilizer operating rate, the sales of urea enterprises have improved, with factory inventories decreasing and port inventories slightly increasing. The export quota news has improved the year - end export expectation, which is expected to support the spot market. Currently, new order procurement has slightly slowed down, and continuous attention should be paid to the domestic spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the market price of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [6][7][8][13][15] 2. Urea Production - Relevant figures are the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [17][20] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures cover production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [23][24][30][32] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle and large - particle urea in China, the price differences, and the export profit and disk export profit [29][34][37][44] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Relevant figures are the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [45][46][47] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream factory inventories, port inventories, the raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the holding volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract [50][53][56] Market Data Price and Basis - On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,688 yuan/ton (- 4). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,710 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,710 yuan/ton (+ 30), and in Jiangsu was 1,700 yuan/ton (+ 20). The price of small - piece anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was 22 yuan/ton (+ 34), in Henan was 22 yuan/ton (+ 24), and in Jiangsu was 12 yuan/ton (+ 24). The urea production profit was 180 yuan/ton (+ 30), and the export profit was 928 yuan/ton (- 3) [1] Supply Side - As of December 4, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.82% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2905 million tons (- 73,400 tons), and the port sample inventory was 105,000 tons (+ 5,000 tons) [1] Demand Side - As of December 4, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.53% (+ 3.47%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.66% (+ 0.86%), and the number of days of advance orders of urea enterprises was 7.35 days (+ 0.70) [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Range - bound oscillation - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-05 社会库存继续下滑华东升水持续走高 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为186.85美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化200元/吨至22990元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水70元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日180元/吨至22880元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-40元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日180元/吨至22870元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-50元/吨。 绝对价格上涨突破23000元/吨，下游采购偏谨慎，天津和广东地区贴水扩大，但社会库存持续下滑，供应相对偏紧， 华东升水进一步走高。出口窗口持续打开，国内仓单库存小幅下滑，基本面方面全面偏向利好。11月冶炼端产量 环比回落且明显低于预期，现货升贴水持续向上修复，一方面体现消费强度另一方面体现供应偏紧。海内外TC持 续下滑， 国内高海拔矿山已经进入冬季停产检修周期，TC价格的快速回落叠加绝对价格的回落造成冶炼综合成本 开始面临亏损，在供给端压力后期有望下滑。基本面数据已经全面从前期利空转为利多，且当前锌估值偏低，美 国12月降息预期提高，但对未来的消费保持乐观，降息预期不改，再通胀尚未体现。 策 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are cautiously bullish, but the rebound space of the 01 contract may be limited. Long - term attention should be paid to the 05 contract [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost - end: Brent oil prices range from $60 - 65 per barrel. OPEC+ agreed to keep production stable next year, and eight major oil - producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increases in Q1 next year, partially alleviating oil price pressure, but the overall fundamentals have a bearish impact on oil prices, and geopolitical and macro events may affect market sentiment. PX load remains high, and PXN has support but limited rebound space. PTA's supply - demand situation has improved, and processing fees are expected to gradually improve in the long - run. - Demand: The polyester operating rate is 91.5% (a 0.2% increase from the previous period). Although weaving orders are weakening, the short - term polyester load is expected to remain around 91% due to low inventory in polyester factories. PF has good fundamentals but weakening demand, and the processing fee is slightly compressed. PR's fundamentals change little, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 32 yuan/ton (a 3 - yuan increase from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 184 yuan/ton (a 6 - yuan increase from the previous period), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 266 yuan/ton (a 2 - yuan increase from the previous period). The PXN of PX is 286 dollars/ton (a 2.25 - dollar increase from the previous period) [1] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Relying on the current abundant MX supply, the PX load can be maintained at a high level, and PXN has support under the support of polyester operation. The PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve in the long - run [1][3] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - India's BIS cancellation has boosted PTA export demand [1] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - PX load remains high, and PTA has concentrated maintenance recently, and the supply - demand situation has improved [1][3] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Polyester factory inventory is currently low [2] Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester operating rate is 91.5% (a 0.2% increase from the previous period), and it is expected to remain around 91% in the short - term [2] PF Detailed Data - The PF spot production profit is 183 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan increase from the previous period). Short - fiber load is at a high level, and inventory has decreased to a low level. However, downstream demand is weakening, and the processing fee is slightly compressed [2] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The PR bottle - chip spot processing fee is 445 yuan/ton (a 13 - yuan decrease from the previous period). The bottle - chip load remains stable, large manufacturers continue to cut or stop production, and the inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remains stable [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price will oscillate within a range due to insufficient fundamental contradictions [2] - The supply - demand pattern of glass and soda ash remains unchanged, and their prices will oscillate weakly [2] - The building material consumption data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is fair, and their alloy futures have rebounded [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures oscillated downward with active trading and decreased positions. Regionally, the spot market was weak and stable. This week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 59.442 million heavy cases, a 4.68% decrease from the previous week. Although the increase in cold - repair of glass production lines improved demand slightly, the supply contraction was insufficient, and the inventory, though decreasing, was still high. Glass factories need long - term losses to clear capacity [2] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures oscillated downward. The spot price was stable, with mainly rigid demand purchases. The production, sales, and inventory data of soda ash all declined, slightly alleviating the supply - demand contradiction, but the inventory was still high. With the expected increase in cold - repair of float glass, the demand for heavy soda ash is challenged, suppressing the price [2] Strategy - Glass: Oscillation [3] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [3] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: The building material consumption was strong and inventory reduction was fair. The silicomanganese futures rebounded following the black market. The spot market was strong. Due to continuous losses, the production and operating rate of enterprises continued to decline, but the reduction was insufficient, and the inventory reached a new high. Port manganese ore inventory increased slightly, and the total manganese element inventory was stable, providing cost support [4] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures rebounded following black commodities. The Hebei Iron and Steel Group entered the market for procurement, and the market was waiting for its price guidance. Currently, ferrosilicon has high production and inventory, and demand is weakening. As the loss - time of enterprises extends, the operating rate decreases, and the inventory declines, but the high inventory still suppresses the price [4] Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [5] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [5]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-05 单边：震荡 跨品种：无 期现：无 基本面矛盾不足，钢价区间震荡运行 钢材：基本面矛盾不足，钢价区间震荡运行 市场分析 供需与逻辑：供应端，我的钢铁数据显示成材供应有所回落，需求压力仍在。板材供需矛盾仍未解决。当前弱现 实强预期叠加成本托底，后续需重点关注宏观政策落地力度、天气变化对施工的影响、终端需求释放节奏及冬储 行情启动情况。 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3148元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3323元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般偏 弱，价格基本和昨日持稳，低价为主，出货意愿持续增加，全国建材成交93867吨。 策略 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：需求预期走弱，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡偏弱运行，最终铁矿石2601合约收盘794.5元/吨；现货方面，报价整体小幅 下跌、成交氛围略显平淡，供需呈现宽松态势，采购价格多随行就市。全国主港铁矿累计成交85.6万吨，环比减少 26.84%。 供需与逻辑：目前供需矛盾持续蓄力，铁水产量环比减量，钢厂盈利率持续压缩，淡季逐渐深入，铁水季节性下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - term: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.3% at 2,437 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.59% at 3,028 yuan/ton at night [1] - Although crude oil prices have rebounded slightly from the low level recently, the medium - term expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical premium may further subside, suppressing the unilateral price of fuel oil from the cost side [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the overall market contradictions are limited. The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is in the adjustment stage, and the crack spread continues to decline. The shipment of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East showed signs of recovery in early December, possibly driven by the decrease in refinery maintenance and power plant demand. Currently, the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread needs incremental demand from refineries to support it [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overall market supply is still relatively abundant, but there are local reductions. Due to the extended maintenance of the Azur refinery, the shipping volume of Kuwait tracked from November to now remains zero. There is still short - term support for the low - sulfur fuel oil market, and the high - low sulfur spread is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.3% at 2,437 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.59% at 3,028 yuan/ton at night [1] - Crude oil prices rebounded slightly from the low level, but the medium - term oversupply expectation in the oil market is being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is reached, the geopolitical premium may subside, suppressing fuel oil prices from the cost side [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil market structure is in adjustment, crack spread is declining. Middle East high - sulfur fuel oil shipments recovered in early December, possibly due to less refinery maintenance and power plant demand. The crack spread needs refinery demand support [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is generally abundant with local reductions. Due to refinery maintenance, Kuwait's shipping volume is zero. There is short - term support, and the high - low sulfur spread may fluctuate strongly with limited upside [1] Strategy - High - sulfur: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Low - sulfur: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - term: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the trading data of stock index options on December 3, 2025, including option trading volume, PCR (Put - Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index), offering an overview of the stock index option market [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Trading Volume - On December 3, 2025, the trading volumes of various options were as follows: 43.13 million contracts for SSE 50 ETF options, 56.06 million for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), 77.35 million for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), 5.68 million for Shenzhen 100 ETF options, 168.90 million for GEM ETF options, 2.51 million for SSE 50 stock index options, 6.03 million for CSI 300 stock index options, and 18.97 million for CSI 1000 options [1]. - The detailed breakdown of call, put, and total trading volumes of each option is also provided in Table 1 [20]. Option PCR - The report shows the PCR data of different options on December 3, 2025. For example, the turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was 1.03 with a +0.16 change compared to the previous period, and the position PCR was 0.98 with a - 0.03 change [2]. - Similar data for other options such as CSI 300 ETF options, CSI 500 ETF options, etc., are also presented, including their turnover and position PCR and corresponding changes [2][36]. Option VIX - The VIX data of various options on December 3, 2025, are reported. For instance, the VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was 14.02% with a +0.02% change compared to the previous period [3]. - The VIX and its changes of other options like CSI 300 ETF options, CSI 500 ETF options are also included in the report [3][53].

Report Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View - The report presents the trading liquidity data of various market sectors on December 3, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory I. Board Liquidity - The liquidity of different market sectors is analyzed, including trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] II. Stock Index Board - On December 3, 2025, the stock index board had a trading volume of 560.771 billion yuan, a +22.06% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1307.145 billion yuan, a +4.64% change; the trading - holding ratio was 42.50% [1] III. Treasury Bond Board - On December 3, 2025, the treasury bond board had a trading volume of 347.233 billion yuan, a -2.08% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 752.001 billion yuan, a +2.70% change; the trading - holding ratio was 46.48% [1] IV. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Board) - Base metals: On December 3, 2025, the trading volume was 443.560 billion yuan, a +7.65% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 647.715 billion yuan, a +1.22% change; the trading - holding ratio was 66.90% - Precious metals: On December 3, 2025, the trading volume was 1103.452 billion yuan, a +3.57% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 486.283 billion yuan, a -0.67% change; the trading - holding ratio was 357.37% [1] V. Energy and Chemicals Board - On December 3, 2025, the energy and chemicals board had a trading volume of 399.981 billion yuan, a +4.47% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 465.694 billion yuan, a +0.51% change; the trading - holding ratio was 74.15% [1] VI. Agricultural Products Board - On December 3, 2025, the agricultural products board had a trading volume of 276.631 billion yuan, a -5.39% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 606.869 billion yuan, a -0.57% change; the trading - holding ratio was 45.93% [1] VII. Black Building Materials Board - On December 3, 2025, the black building materials board had a trading volume of 213.907 billion yuan, a +12.99% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 355.697 billion yuan, a -0.23% change; the trading - holding ratio was 60.87% [2]