Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's strategy for the market is cautiously bearish [4] Core View - The CBOT US soybean price is under pressure due to strong Brazilian exports, and the domestic supply is abundant with increasing soybean inventories, expecting a continued supply - loose pattern. Future market focus lies on policy changes, new - season US soybean harvest, and export conditions. The new - season US soybean imports will impact the market supply - demand around the Spring Festival [3] Market News and Data Summary 粕类 - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2889 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.21%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2321 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-1.23%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2960 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 + 71, up 6 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2870 yuan/ton, with a basis of M01 - 19, up 6; in Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, with a basis of M01 + 1, up 6. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2530 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of RM01 + 209, down 1 [1] - **US and Brazilian Data**: As of October 16, the US soybean export inspection volume was 147.4 million tons, exceeding market expectations. The 2025/26 US soybean export inspection volume was 553.8 million tons, a 30.9% year - on - year decrease, reaching 12.1% of the annual export target. The 2025/26 Brazilian soybean sowing progress was 24% (AgRural) or 23.27% (Brazilian Home Agricultural and Commercial Company), higher than last year [2] 玉米 - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2144 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.28%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2429 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton (+2.06%) [4] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of C11 + 36, down 6; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, with a basis of CS11 + 121, down 49 [4] - **US and Brazilian Data**: As of October 16, the US corn export inspection volume was 131.8 million tons, within the market forecast range. Brazil exported 357.4 million tons of corn in the first three weeks of October, with an average daily export volume 6% lower than the whole of October last year [4][5] Market Analysis Summary 粕类 - Brazilian exports are strong, pressuring CBOT US soybean prices. Domestic supply is abundant with rising soybean inventories, and the supply - loose pattern is expected to continue. Future focus is on policy changes, new - season US soybean harvest, and export conditions [3] 玉米 - In the domestic market, the supply of new - season corn in Northeast and North China is increasing. Farmers in the Northeast are actively selling, and prices are falling. In North China, there is mainly wet corn. Demand from deep - processing enterprises is stable, and feed enterprises are increasing purchases. The supply exceeds demand, and new - grain prices are low. Future focus is on national policies [6] Strategy Summary - The strategy for both the soybean meal and corn markets is cautiously bearish [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish, mainly on short - term wait - and - see [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The market has insufficient positive factors, and the market fluctuates at a low level. The asphalt futures and spot markets are affected by multiple factors, with a current pattern of weak supply and demand. The market lacks upward momentum, and it is necessary to wait for the implementation of major macro - events [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 21, the closing price of the main BU2601 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,157 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 182,020 lots, a net increase of 14,315 lots, and the trading volume was 168,391 lots, a net increase of 8,384 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,506 - 4,086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,260 - 3,620 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,340 - 3,550 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,410 - 3,500 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in North China, Shandong, East China, and Sichuan - Chongqing continued to decline yesterday, slightly increased in South China, and remained relatively stable in other regions [1]. - Crude oil and asphalt futures maintained weak fluctuations, which was negative for the sentiment of the asphalt spot market. The current pattern of weak supply and demand in the asphalt market continues, but the sharp drop in oil prices boosts refinery profits, and the supply side has certain elasticity. At the same time, the overall rigid demand for asphalt is weak, the downstream purchasing sentiment is weak, and most market prices continue to decline. Currently, the market still lacks the impetus to rebound [1]. Figures - There are a series of figures in the report, including spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), closing prices of asphalt futures indices, main contracts, and near - month contracts, trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, weekly domestic asphalt production, asphalt production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship - fuel), and asphalt inventories in refineries and society [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - China's current butadiene plants are mainly integrated, with state - owned enterprises accounting for 81.22%, mostly concentrated in PetroChina and Sinopec. High production costs have led to the shutdown of most oxidation - dehydrogenation process plants [2][7][12] - The proportion of butadiene plants with downstream support is 42.7%, and state - owned plants in this category account for 67.66%, with nearly half located in East China [2][12][36] - The four major areas with high demand for butadiene are cis - butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS, accounting for 86.45% of the total demand. Their capacity changes and operating rates are the main factors affecting butadiene demand fluctuations [24][37] - Currently, East China is the main area with a butadiene shortage, while North China, Northeast China, Northwest China, South China, and Central China have varying degrees of surplus. Despite this, China still imports some butadiene due to shortages of certain types [30][32][37] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Introduction - This is the third in the series of in - depth analyses of chemical plants, focusing on the ownership, distribution of butadiene upstream and downstream plants, and marginal plants. The topic is divided into two parts. The first part analyzes the butadiene plants themselves and the raw material balance between regional plants and their downstream counterparts, while the second part will detail the ownership, distribution, and marginal plants of each major downstream area of butadiene [6] 2. Butadiene Plant Analysis - **Capacity Ownership and Distribution**: As of now, there are 71 butadiene plants in China, including 7 shut - down, 8 under construction, and 56 in production. After excluding shut - down (430,000 tons) and under - construction (1.19 million tons) capacities, the total butadiene capacity is 7.137 million tons. State - owned enterprises account for 81.22%, private enterprises 13.03%, and foreign - funded enterprises 5.74%. Carbon - four extraction process plants account for 93.15%, and butene oxidation - dehydrogenation plants 6.85%. Most plants are integrated, with only a few needing to purchase external raw materials [7] - **Shut - down Plants**: Shut - down plants are mainly in East China (5 plants, 370,000 tons) and North China (2 plants, 60,000 tons). Five are state - owned (250,000 tons, 58%), and 2 are private (180,000 tons, 42%). Most shut - down plants use the oxidation - dehydrogenation process due to high production costs [8] - **Under - construction Plants**: There are 8 under - construction plants with a total capacity of 1.19 million tons. Three are in East China (360,000 tons, 30.25%), 2 in Northeast China (360,000 tons, 30.25%), and the rest in South China, Northwest China, and Central China. The capacity with downstream support is 480,000 tons, accounting for 40.33% [8] - **In - production Plants**: Among the 56 in - production plants, 30 are in East China (3.743 million tons, 52.45%), 8 in South China (1.095 million tons, 15.34%), 7 in Northeast China (930,000 tons, 13%), 4 in North China (575,000 tons, 8%), 3 in Northwest China (404,000 tons), 3 in Central China (240,000 tons), and 1 in Southwest China (150,000 tons). State - owned capacity accounts for 48.8% of the total 6.937 million tons [9][10] 3. Marginal Capacity Analysis of Butadiene - **Plants with Downstream Support**: There are 20 existing plants with a total capacity of 3.076 million tons, accounting for 43.1%. There are also 3 under - construction plants with a total capacity of 480,000 tons, expected to be completed from the fourth quarter of this year to 2026 and 2027. Thirteen are state - owned (2.026 million tons, 65.86%), 3 are mixed - ownership (700,000 tons), 3 are private (220,000 tons), and 1 is a Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan joint - venture (130,000 tons). Eleven are in East China (1.661 million tons, 54%) [16] - **Plants without Downstream Support**: There are currently 36 plants with a total capacity of 4.061 million tons. There are also 5 under - construction plants with a total capacity of 710,000 tons. Five plants were shut down between 2008 and 2017, involving a total capacity of 340,000 tons. After excluding shut - down and under - construction capacities, the capacity of plants without downstream support accounts for 43.1% of the existing total. Nineteen are in East China (2.082 million tons), 7 in South China (945,000 tons), 3 in North China (440,000 tons), 3 in Central China (240,000 tons), 3 in Northeast China (290,000 tons), and 1 in Northwest China (64,000 tons). Twenty - six are state - owned (3.071 million tons), 8 are private (710,000 tons), 1 is foreign - owned (200,000 tons), and 1 is a Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan joint - venture (80,000 tons) [16][17][18] 4. Butadiene Downstream Demand Proportion and Regional Raw Material Balance Analysis - **Downstream Demand Distribution**: Butadiene is widely used downstream, mainly in cis - butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, SBS, ESBS, and nitrile rubber, as well as two latex categories (nitrile latex and styrene - butadiene latex). The four major demand areas (cis - butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS) account for 86.45% of the total demand. For downstream plants with external raw material procurement needs, the top four demand areas remain the same, but the structure changes. The external procurement capacity of styrene - butadiene rubber is significantly smaller than that of SBS, and the external procurement capacity of nitrile latex also accounts for a large proportion [24] - **Regional Raw Material Balance Analysis**: By matching the external sales volume of butadiene in major regions with the external procurement demand of downstream areas, it is found that East China is the main area with a butadiene shortage, while North China, Northeast China, Northwest China, South China, and Central China have varying degrees of surplus. The total surplus capacity is basically the same as the shortage capacity, indicating that China's butadiene plants are generally self - sufficient. However, due to shortages of certain types, China still imports some butadiene every year, mainly from South Korea, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and the United States [30][31][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to mandatory environmental regulations, LNG has become a key compliance solution for the shipping industry, but methane emissions pose a significant challenge to its long - term sustainability. Despite this, LNG currently holds a dominant position in the alternative fuel new - ship orders and is expected to strengthen its market position through technological innovation [3][4][5] Summary by Directory LNG Ship Fuel Policy Background - **IMO 2020 Global Sulfur Cap**: Effective from January 1, 2020, it reduced the sulfur content limit for ships' fuel. Shipowners can choose compliant fuel, install desulfurization towers, or use alternative fuels like LNG. LNG can directly meet the sulfur limit standard, making the sulfur cap a strong policy driver for LNG's commercial application [11] - **IMO Tier III Nitrogen Oxide Standards**: For ships built after January 1, 2016, in designated nitrogen oxide emission control areas, nitrogen oxide emissions need to be reduced by about 80% compared to Tier I. LNG engines, especially those using the lean - burn Otto cycle, can meet this standard without additional post - treatment systems. However, the lean - burn technology causes methane slip [12][13][14] Advantages and Disadvantages of LNG Decarbonization Transformation - **Pollution Gas Emission Reduction Advantages**: LNG can eliminate sulfur oxide emissions almost completely and significantly reduce particulate matter and nitrogen oxide emissions. Different institutions have evaluated that the reduction rates of sulfur oxides, particulate matter, and nitrogen oxides are very high [16][17] - **Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction Advantages in the On - board Combustion Stage**: LNG has a higher hydrogen - to - carbon ratio than petroleum - based fuels, resulting in less carbon dioxide emissions when burning the same amount of energy. It also has an advantage in obtaining a better CII rating [19][20] - **Technical Maturity and Infrastructure Adaptability Advantages**: LNG dual - fuel engines are mature, and global mainstream manufacturers can provide reliable products. The global LNG refueling network is expanding rapidly, with 188 ports offering refueling services by the end of 2023 and 82 more in construction or planning [23] - **Methane Emission Disadvantages**: Methane is a potent greenhouse gas. Its warming effect is much stronger than that of carbon dioxide, especially in the short - term (GWP20). The GWP20 value of methane is 82.5 [24][26] - **Emission Disadvantages under the Full - Life - Cycle Assessment Framework**: The IMO 2023 greenhouse gas emission reduction strategy uses the Well - to - Wake assessment method. Different studies have different conclusions on LNG's full - life - cycle greenhouse gas emissions, which depend on upstream production, engine technology, and the GWP assessment time scale [27][29][31] Current Application and Outlook of LNG in the Ship Market - **Engine Technology**: The mainstream LNG engine technologies are low - pressure dual - fuel (LPDF) and high - pressure dual - fuel (HPDF) engines. LPDF engines are more common but have a serious methane slip problem. Manufacturers are innovating to address this issue, such as Wärtsilä's NextDF technology [33][37] - **Fleet Size and Market Share**: The LNG - powered fleet has been growing rapidly. It is expected to double by 2030. LNG is mainly used in container ships and car carriers. CMA CGM is a strong promoter of LNG fuel [38][41][43] - **Competition Pattern of Ship Alternative Fuels**: LNG, methanol, and ammonia are the most promising alternative fuels. LNG is the most widely used and technically mature. Methanol has storage advantages but faces a supply bottleneck for green methanol. Ammonia has zero - carbon potential but is in the early R & D stage [45][47] - **Applications in Other Commercial Transport Fields**: LNG is a mature and growing alternative fuel in road freight, especially for heavy - duty trucks. However, its application in aviation is still in the theoretical and experimental stage due to low volume energy density [51] - **Compliance Cost Measurement**: The IMO's GFI standard, effective from January 1, 2028, will link the full - life - cycle carbon intensity of fuel to operating costs. LNG - powered ships have a cost advantage, especially those using low - methane - slip technology [54][56][58] Summary - LNG has established its leading position as a mainstream alternative fuel. Advanced technologies are solving the methane slip problem. The growth of the LNG - powered fleet and strategic investments from industry giants show that LNG is seen as a long - term strategic platform. In the future, LNG's competitive advantage will be strengthened under tightening environmental regulations [60][61]

Group 1: Report Summary - The bearish logic for zinc prices in 2025 was due to the rapid increase in domestic smelting supply after the recovery of mine supply. After 10 months, the zinc price dropped from a high of 25,000 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton. Now, although the domestic supply pressure remains, fundamental factors have changed marginally, and the decline in zinc prices may have ended [1][6][39] Group 2: Domestic Mine Supply Falling Short of Expectations - From January to September, the cumulative output of zinc concentrate was 2.727 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. In October, production is expected to decline by about 15,000 tons to around 300,000 tons. With high-altitude mines entering the shutdown cycle in the fourth quarter, domestic mine supply growth expectations have basically failed [7] - Due to the continuous strong overseas and weak domestic situation, the cost - performance of imported mines is low. As winter storage approaches and smelter raw material inventories decline, domestic mine TC has started to fall, showing a marginal positive factor [7] - As of the end of September, smelter raw material inventories had decreased by 15,000 tons from the peak, and the number of available days had decreased by 3 days [7] Group 3: Overseas Deficit to be Filled by China - From January to the third quarter, overseas refined zinc production totaled 5.132 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. The annual output is expected to be 6.836 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. Low long - term contract prices and high energy costs have inhibited overseas smelter production enthusiasm [15] - LME inventory has dropped from a high of 230,000 tons at the beginning of the year to less than 40,000 tons. The continuous decline in inventory along with rising premiums indicates real consumption. The long - standing strong overseas and weak domestic pattern has opened the window for Chinese refined zinc exports, which will significantly relieve China's supply pressure [15][17] Group 4: Consumption Exceeding Expectations - Apparent consumption has been boosted by the expansion of integrated and processing enterprises. The zinc alloy production capacity of 53 major smelters in China is 2.06 million tons, accounting for 25.4% of the total zinc smelting capacity. In 2024, the zinc alloy output of sample enterprises was 1.099 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. If social inventory accumulates to 200,000 tons, the year - on - year growth rate of apparent consumption can reach about 5.9%. If inventory reduction occurs around November, it will be a positive factor [24] - In terms of actual consumption, exports and domestic demand are resilient. Real estate drags zinc consumption by 2.5% - 3%. Infrastructure investment has a 3.4% cumulative year - on - year growth from January to September 2025, with grid investment growing at 14%. The investment in railway, ship, aerospace transportation, etc., is strong, and it is estimated that this sector, combined with infrastructure, will drive consumption growth of 3.5% - 5%. Automobiles, "two heavy and two new" industries, and exports also contribute to consumption growth. The actual consumption growth rate of zinc for the whole year is estimated to reach about 5%, and the apparent consumption may reach over 7% [28][29][34]

FICC日报 | 2025-10-21 中美关系风险缓释，股指反弹 市场分析 中美将谈判。宏观方面，二十届四中全会10月20日上午在北京开始举行，中央委员会总书记习近平代表中央政治 局向全会作工作报告，并就《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议（讨论稿）》向全会 作了说明。经济数据方面，国家统计局发布数据，前三季度我国GDP同比增长5.2%，其中，一季度增长5.4%，二 季度增长5.2%，三季度增长4.8%。9月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.5%，社会消费品零售总额增长3%。前 三季度，全国固定资产投资同比下降0.5%，扣除房地产开发投资后增长3%；居民人均可支配收入32509元，扣除 价格因素实际增长5.2%。中美关系方面，特朗普表示，美方将稀土、芬太尼和大豆列为将对中方提出的三大问题。 指数收红。现货市场，A股三大指数冲高回落，沪指涨0.63%收于3863.89点，创业板指涨1.98%。行业方面，板块 指数涨多跌少，通信、煤炭、电力设备、机械设备行业领涨，有色金属、农林牧渔、美容护理行业跌幅居前。当 日沪深两市成交金额降至1.7万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收涨，纳指涨1.37 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily market overview of index options on October 20, 2025, including option trading volume, PCR, and VIX data for various index options [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Option Trading Volume - On October 20, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai - 50 ETF options was 174.02 million contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 195.42 million contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 234.77 million contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 12.45 million contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 276.42 million contracts; Shanghai - 50 index options was 2.72 million contracts; CSI 300 index options was 22.84 million contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 21.04 million contracts [1] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai - 50 ETF options was reported at 0.76, with a month - on - month change of +0.04; the position PCR was 0.79, with a month - on - month change of - 0.01. Similar data for other options are also provided, showing different changes in turnover PCR and position PCR [2] Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai - 50 ETF options was reported at 17.89%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.90%. Other options also have their respective VIX values and month - on - month changes [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The report presents the market liquidity situation of various sectors on October 20, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - Multiple figures are used to show the trading - holding ratio, transaction amount change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and transaction amount of each sector, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [4][5][8] 2. Stock Index Plate - On October 20, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 707.913 billion yuan, a 26.46% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1258.663 billion yuan, a 2.50% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 55.88%. There are also detailed figures about the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, and other indicators of each variety in the stock index plate [1][5] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - On October 20, 2025, the treasury bond plate had a trading volume of 365.097 billion yuan, a 0.38% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 811.886 billion yuan, a 1.87% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 44.77%. There are also detailed figures about the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, and other indicators of each variety in the treasury bond plate [1][5] 4. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On October 20, 2025, the base metals plate had a trading volume of 343.366 billion yuan, a 7.22% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 522.558 billion yuan, a 0.10% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 65.34%. The precious metals plate had a trading volume of 1622.201 billion yuan, a 3.11% increase; the holding amount was 514.839 billion yuan, a 5.58% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 395.70%. There are also detailed figures about the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, and other indicators of each variety in the metal plate [1][5] 5. Energy and Chemical Plate - On October 20, 2025, the energy and chemical plate had a trading volume of 364.539 billion yuan, an 8.64% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 444.413 billion yuan, a 0.31% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 70.33%. There are also detailed figures about the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, and other indicators of each major variety in the energy and chemical plate [1][5] 6. Agricultural Products Plate - On October 20, 2025, the agricultural products plate had a trading volume of 322.678 billion yuan, a 4.22% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 568.290 billion yuan, a 0.77% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 51.36%. There are also detailed figures about the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, and other indicators of each major variety in the agricultural products plate [1][5] 7. Black Building Materials Plate - On October 20, 2025, the black building materials plate had a trading volume of 274.430 billion yuan, a 16.23% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 358.618 billion yuan, a 1.98% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 74.05%. There are also detailed figures about the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, and other indicators of each variety in the black building materials plate [2][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended [7] - Options: short put@81000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - Previously, due to favorable macro - factors, the strengthening of precious metal prices, and frequent interference events at overseas mines, copper prices rose. Now, with the temporary decline of precious metal prices and smelters seeking to break the low processing fees, if the TC price rebounds, it may suppress copper prices. The copper price is currently treated with a neutral view, and the expected price range next week is between 81,600 yuan/ton and 86,600 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On October 20, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 84,660 yuan/ton and closed at 85,380 yuan/ton, a 1.17% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 85,220 yuan/ton and closed at 85,670 yuan/ton, a 0.34% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 10 - 110 yuan/ton, with an average of 60 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 5 yuan from the previous day. The price range of electrolytic copper was 85,270 - 85,990 yuan/ton. The market trading sentiment was still weak. High copper prices restricted downstream purchasing willingness, and it is expected that today's purchases will be mainly for rigid demand [2] Important Information Summary - The White House may take stronger measures to end the government shutdown. The US and Australia will jointly invest over $3 billion in key mineral projects in the next 6 months, with estimated recoverable resource value of $53 billion. The Pentagon will invest in a gallium processing plant in Western Australia [3] Supply - side Information Mine End - Ontario plans to halve the mine approval time. China's copper ore and concentrate imports in September 2025 were 2,586,873.52 tons, a 6.24% month - on - month decrease and a 6.43% year - on - year increase. Imports from Chile decreased, while those from Peru increased [4] Smelting and Import - China's scrap copper imports in September 2025 were 184,079.92 tons, a 2.67% month - on - month increase and a 14.84% year - on - year increase. Japan and Thailand were the main import sources [5] Demand - side Information - China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products in September 2025 were 95,869 tons, a 26.0% year - on - year increase. The operating rates of domestic refined copper rods and copper cables rebounded but were still lower than before the holiday. High copper prices continued to suppress downstream demand, and most companies adopted a rigid - demand procurement strategy [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 225 tons to 137,175 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1,530 tons to 41,319 tons. On October 20, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 186,600 tons, an increase of 9,100 tons from the previous week [6] Price and Basis Data | Project | Today (2025 - 10 - 21) | Yesterday (2025 - 10 - 20) | Last Week (2025 - 10 - 14) | One Month (2025 - 09 - 21) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 copper (premium/discount) | 60 | 55 | 80 | 70 | | Premium copper (premium) | 95 | 95 | 150 | 115 | | Flat - water copper (premium) | 35 | 30 | 45 | 30 | | Wet - process copper (premium) | - 35 | - 40 | - 45 | - 30 | | Yangshan premium | 50 | 50 | 53 | 59 | | LME (0 - 3) | - 17 | - 11 | - 31 | - 71 | | LME inventory | 137,175 | 137,225 | 139,350 | 148,875 | | SHFE inventory | 110,240 | - | 109,690 | - | | COMEX inventory | 313,506 | 312,663 | 308,012 | 283,805 | | SHFE warehouse receipts | 41,319 | 42,849 | 32,890 | 31,838 | | LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio | 5.70% | 5.49% | 5.99% | 9.65% | | CU2602 - CU2511 (continuous three - near month) | - 90 | - 140 | 80 | - 50 | | CU2512 - CU2511 (main - near month) | 0 | 0 | 120 | 0 | | CU12/AL12 | 4.08 | 4.04 | 4.08 | 3.84 | | CU12/ZN12 | 3.91 | 3.87 | 3.82 | 3.62 | | Import profit | - 628 | - 686 | - 840 | 4 | [26][27][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - On October 20, the SCFIS slightly exceeded expectations. The 10 - month contract delivery settlement price may be higher than 1110 points, and the market has a large divergence on the final delivery settlement price. The 12 - month contract is expected to trade in different rhythms, and the shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep the freight rate at a high level. The 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [4][5]. - The counter - measure of China against the US USTR port surcharge has a relatively small impact on the European line [3]. - The strategy suggests that the 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage opportunity currently [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 20, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 is 1522.00, EC2604 is 1155.10, EC2606 is 1330.30, EC2608 is 1440.30, EC2510 is 1100.10, and EC2512 is 1682.00. The 10 - month contract has a high open interest, and the market has a large divergence on the final delivery settlement price. The 12 - month contract focuses on the actual implementation of price increases in November, and the trading rhythm is expected to follow the pattern of trading price increase expectations and actual implementation [4][5][6]. 2. Spot Price - On October 17, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1145 dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the US) was 1936 dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the US) was 2853 dollars/FEU. On October 20, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1140.38 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the US) was 863.46 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From January to October 2025, 211 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.706 million TEU. As of October 17, 2025, 64 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 963,800 TEU, and 10 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 218,840 TEU. The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in October was 250,800 TEU, 299,500 TEU in November, and 308,800 TEU in December. There were 4 blank sailings and 4 TBNs in November and 5 TBNs in December [2][6]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Hamas is discussing the next - stage content of the Gaza cease - fire agreement in Egypt, and has handed over the remains of Israeli hostages to the Red Cross. There is a counter - measure between China and the US regarding port fees for related ships, but it has a relatively small impact on the European line [2][3]. 5. Demand and European Economy - There is no specific analysis of demand and European economy data in the content provided, but it can be inferred that the shipping companies' supply - side adjustment for freight rates is related to the need to prepare for the next - year long - term contract negotiation to ensure stable revenue [4][5].