Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,357 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 0.60% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China EG market was 4,456 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.50%. The spot basis of EG in East China was 108 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$61/ton, down $1/ton; the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -102 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 44.9 tons, down 5.1 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 37.6 tons, down 3.7 tons. Last week, the actual arrival at the main ports was 5 tons, and this week's planned arrival is 9.8 tons [1]. - In terms of supply, domestic ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term. The syngas load may decline in September. Overseas supply has suffered many losses, and the import volume from September to October may be revised down. In terms of demand, there are signs of recovery, and polyester load is expected to rise slightly. The supply - demand balance sheet from August to September is in a loose balance [2]. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,357 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 0.60% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China EG market was 4,456 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.50%. The spot basis of EG in East China was 108 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$61/ton, down $1/ton; the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -102 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] III. International Price Difference - No specific data provided, only a chart of the international price difference between US FOB and Chinese CFR is mentioned [19] IV. Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - No specific data provided, only charts of downstream production, sales and operating rates are mentioned, including long - filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, etc. [20][22][28] V. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 44.9 tons, down 5.1 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 37.6 tons, down 3.7 tons. Last week, the actual arrival at the main ports was 5 tons, and this week's planned arrival is 9.8 tons [1]

油脂日报 | 2025-09-05 油脂多空交织，价格静待驱动 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9390.00元/吨，环比变化+22元，幅度+0.23%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8356.00 元/吨，环比变化-10.00元，幅度-0.12%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9739.00元/吨，环比变化+12.00元，幅度+0.12%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9380.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元，幅度+0.86%，现货基差P01+-10.00，环比变 化+58.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8510.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.35%，现货基差Y01+154.00， 环比变化+40.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9900.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元，幅度+0.20%，现货基差 OI01+161.00，环比变化+8.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美湾大豆（10月船期）C&F价格467美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调3美元/吨；美西大豆（10 月船期）C&F价格439美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调3美元/吨；巴西大豆（10月船期）C&F价格483美元 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-05 库存继续降低，碳酸锂供需格局继续好转 市场分析 2025-09-04，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于71200元/吨，收于73420元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化1.05%。当日成 交量为712151手，持仓量为353674手，前一交易日持仓量346048手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为2000元/吨（电 碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单34948手，较上个交易日变化830手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价73400-76600元/吨，较前一交易日变化-900元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价72000-73400元/吨，较前一交易日变化-900元/吨。6%锂精矿价格850美元/吨，较前一日变化0美元/吨。据SMM 数据，碳酸锂期货价格出现小幅回弹，但下游普遍在价格低点时已完成点价活动，使得碳酸锂现货成交价格重心 持续下移。"金九银十"旺季来临，下游材料厂库存周期小幅拉长。供应端出现结构性分化：锂辉石端碳酸锂产出 占比已超过60%，锂云母端碳酸锂产出占比已下滑至15%。综合来看，9 月市场呈现供需双增、需求增速更快的局 势，当月将出现阶段性供应偏紧。 乘 ...

服务行业：关注体育消费。 1）国务院办公厅日前印发《关于释放体育消费潜力进一步推进体育产业高质量发展 的意见》（以下简称《意见》）。《意见》提出到2030年，培育一批具有世界影响力的体育企业和体育赛事，体育产 业发展水平大幅跃升，总规模超过7万亿元。《意见》强调，要丰富体育赛事活动，优化赛事服务管理，发展户外 运动产业，培育壮大冰雪经济，推动体育用品升级。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 宏观日报 | 2025-09-05 化工中游开工增长 中观事件总览 生产行业：关注电子信息制造业增长。 1）9月4日，工业和信息化部、市场监督管理总局印发《电子信息制造业 2025－2026年稳增长行动方案》，提出2025－2026年，规模以上计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增加值平均增 速在7%左右，加上锂电池、光伏及元器件制造等相关领域后电子信息制造业年均营收增速达到5%以上。方案还提 出综合整治"内卷式"竞争，深度嵌入全球电子信息制造业分工体系，促进国内外市场畅通经济循环。 下游：1）地产：二、三线城市商品房销售回升。2）服务：国际航班班次回落。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 上游：1）化工： ...

航运日报 | 2025-09-05 运价中枢继续下移，HMM价格下修至1700美元/FEU 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹37周价格开出为1175/1970，38周价格1040/1740；HPL -SPOT 9月上半月 船期报价1085/1735，9月下半月价格1085/1735，10月上半月价格1085/1735。马士基远东-北欧地区PSS降为50/100. MSC公布中国黄金周假期空班。亚洲-北欧航线39周 SWAN以及BRITANNIA空班，40周ALBATROS以及 BRITANNIA航次空班，上述四个航次初步涉及运力大致5.9万TEU。双子星联盟同样公布中国黄金周假期空班， 亚洲-北欧航线41周AE1航线空班。中国-欧基港9月份月度剩余周均运力30.51万TEU，WEEK37/38/39周运力分别为 30.7/27.7/33.1万TEU；10月份月度周均运力27.6万TEU，WEEK40/41/42/43/44周运力分别32.7/19.9/25.7/29.8/29.5万 TEU。9月份共计3个空班（均在37周，OA联盟两个空班，PA联盟一个空班）， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading liquidity data of various market sectors on September 4, 2025, including trading volume, holding volume, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - Various charts are used to show the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate [5] 2. Stock Index Plate - On September 4, 2025, the trading volume was 1162.502 billion yuan, with a +11.23% change compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1378.315 billion yuan, with a +1.32% change; the trading - holding ratio was 83.01% [1] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume was 411.039 billion yuan, with a - 3.73% change compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 707.072 billion yuan, with a +1.07% change; the trading - holding ratio was 58.81% [1] 4. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - The trading volume was 335.734 billion yuan for basic metals and 615.432 billion yuan for precious metals. The changes compared to the previous trading day were +0.29% and +21.98% respectively. The holding amounts were 505.788 billion yuan and 483.843 billion yuan, with changes of - 0.80% and - 0.11% respectively. The trading - holding ratios were 82.88% and 157.47% respectively [1] 5. Energy Chemical Plate - The trading volume was 482.815 billion yuan, with a +17.67% change compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 431.791 billion yuan, with a - 0.81% change; the trading - holding ratio was 83.46% [1] 6. Agricultural Products Plate - The trading volume was 318.503 billion yuan, with a +6.76% change compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 542.482 billion yuan, with a - 0.09% change; the trading - holding ratio was 53.90% [1] 7. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume was 255.315 billion yuan, with a +16.52% change compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 367.084 billion yuan, with a - 0.03% change; the trading - holding ratio was 63.88% [2]

丙烯日报 | 2025-09-05 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6392元/吨（-23），丙烯华东现货价6575元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6605元/吨（-25）， 丙烯华东基差183元/吨（+23），丙烯华北基差213元/吨（-2）。丙烯开工率75%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR185美元/吨（-5），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR80美元/吨（-10），进口利润-167元/吨（-8），厂内库存39110吨（-1210）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率37%（-3.47%），生产利润-235元/吨（+25）；环氧丙烷开工率74%（+1%），生产利润-315 元/吨（+161）；正丁醇开工率86%（-1%），生产利润-107元/吨（+16）；辛醇开工率95%（+1%），生产利润122元/ 吨（-32）；丙烯酸开工率69%（+0%），生产利润157元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率73%（-1%），生产利润-568元/吨（+114）； 酚酮开工率75%（-1%），生产利润-447元/吨（+92）。 市场分析 供应端，丙烯整体开工变化不大，主力PDH装置情况来看，河北海伟、万华蓬莱近 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is affected by the military parade's production restrictions. After the parade, steel mills are resuming production, but demand has not significantly improved, and finished products continue to accumulate inventory. The short - term outlook is weak, and attention should be paid to blast furnace resumption and demand performance [1]. - The iron ore supply has increased, and the demand (daily hot metal production) has decreased due to the military parade's production restrictions. Steel mills are resuming production, and it is expected that hot metal production will recover next week. The supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited, and attention should be paid to the impact of floating cargo volume on arrivals, as well as iron ore shipments and hot metal changes [3]. - The supply of coking coal and coke is becoming more abundant, and the market is in a state of shock. For coking coal, the market sentiment is bearish due to factors such as coking profit compression and weakening thermal coal prices. For coke, the fundamentals are weakening due to the decline in steel mill profits, and attention should be paid to the impact of coal over - production inspections in September and the demand for finished products in the peak season [5][6]. - The supply of thermal coal is gradually recovering, and the price is oscillating. In the short term, the price is weakening, and in the long - term, the supply is still abundant. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and replenishment [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, the futures price of rebar was 3117 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil was 3313 yuan/ton. The spot steel transaction was good, with the national construction steel trading volume reaching 101,000 tons, a daily increase of 22.87%. Affected by the military parade's production restrictions in Hebei, the production of rolled plates has decreased significantly. After the parade, steel mills are resuming production, but demand has not improved, and finished products continue to accumulate inventory [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options) are not available [2]. Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, the futures price of iron ore oscillated upwards, with the main 2601 contract closing at 791.5 yuan/ton, a 1.87% increase. The price of imported iron ore in Tangshan Port increased slightly. The total transaction volume of iron ore in major ports across the country was 905,000 tons, a 4.75% increase from the previous day. The forward spot transaction volume was 1.748 million tons, a 74.80% increase. The supply has increased, the demand (hot metal production) has decreased due to production restrictions, and steel mills are resuming production. The port inventory has increased and is at a medium level [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating; Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options) are not available [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, the futures of coking coal and coke oscillated. After the military parade, both supply and demand are in the resumption stage, and the market supply is becoming more abundant. The supply of coking coal in the production area will gradually recover, and the bearish sentiment is strong. The number of customs - cleared vehicles for imported Mongolian coal has increased, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to 910 - 930 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillating; Coke: Oscillating; Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options) are not available [7]. Thermal Coal Market Analysis - The price of thermal coal in the production area is oscillating. The supply in the production area is gradually recovering, the daily consumption of power coal has decreased, and the price is oscillating weakly in the short term. The supply is abundant in the long term. The port market is weak, and the import market is also lackluster [8]. Strategy - No strategy provided [9].

蔡劭立 F3063489 Z0014617 联系人： 朱思谋 F03142856 — 量价和政策信号— 2 【量价观察】美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率下行 警惕人民币升值风险 华泰期货研究院 2025年09月05日 ◆3个月的美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率曲线显示出人民币的升值趋势，Put端波动率高于Call端。 美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率 Delta为5的美元兑人民币3个月期权隐含波动率 数据来源： 3 Bloomberg Wind 华泰期货研究院 3 4 5 6 7 8 3M 2025/09/04 3M 2025/06/27 3M 2025/03/28 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2023-09 2024-03 2024-09 2025-03 2025-09 20250903（%） 20250827（%） 20250806（%） (0.5) 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 一月 三月 六月 一年 本周新交所美元兑人民币期货升贴水(-) 本周银行远期升贴水(-) 本周美中利差 (0.5) 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 一月 三月 六月 一年 上周新交所美元兑人民币期货升贴水(-) 上周银行远期 ...

康远宁 0755-23991175 kangyuanning@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3049404 投资咨询号：Z0015842 期货研究报告|能源专题报告 2025-09-04 印尼生物燃料市场展望 研究院 能源化工组 研究员 潘翔 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 内容摘要 ■ 产业分析：分化发展，各存挑战 生物柴油是当前增长主力，需求随掺混比例提升而增长，出口重心逐步转向国内市场， 但长期面临原料缺口、产能不足及技术风险，B50 计划落地存在不确定性。SAF 尚处起 步阶段，依托航空业复苏与政策推动需求快速增长，芝拉扎项目已实现初步商业化， 但仍存在原料收集和技术合规等问题。燃料乙醇发展相对滞后，E5 试点覆盖有限，糖 蜜原料与食品、出口竞争激烈，产能不足且经济性差，短期难以突破供应瓶颈。 ■ 未来展望：四大关键挑战与机遇 未来印尼生物燃料产业的发展需重点关注四方面：其一，B50 计划能否按时落地，亟 需突破技术适配、原料保障与资金缺口问题；其二，燃料乙醇能否解决原料、产能不 足和经济性差的瓶颈；其三，SAF 能否完善原料收集体系和基础设施，推动规模化产 能释放；其四，能否 ...