农产品日报 | 2025-09-04 供应压力显现，糖价偏弱整理 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13990元/吨，较前一日变动-55元/吨，幅度-0.39%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15373元/吨，较前一日变动+49元/吨，现货基差CF01+1383，较前一日变动+104；3128B棉全国均价15465元/ 吨，较前一日变动+53元/吨，现货基差CF01+1475，较前一日变动+108。 近期市场资讯，近期印度棉区普遍出现强降雨天气，部分吐絮棉花可能已受到损伤。受近期棉花质量下降和来自 进口棉的竞争压力影响，印度国内棉花价格持续承压。2日印度棉花公司（CCI）抛储约17.0万吨。从价格情况来 看，印度棉花公司（CCI）S-6竞拍底价稳定在54500卢比/坎地，折约78.85美分/磅。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，近期印度延长暂免关税时间，对美棉起到一定支撑作用。8月USDA大幅下调 全球棉花产量及期末库存，供需格局直接由偏松转为偏紧。但USDA对于部分增产国家的产量调整或尚未到位。美 棉供需预期有望较此前改善，将对美棉形成较强支撑，但由于当前美棉出口 ...

油料日报 | 2025-09-04 中性 风险 无 豆一供应收紧带动，花生采购需求延续低迷 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2511合约3961.00元/吨，较前日变化-9.00元/吨，幅度-0.23%。现货方面，食用豆现货基差 A11+259，较前日变化+9，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北大豆市场价格平稳运行，目前粮贸企业库存见底，市场购销表现清淡，部分企业竞拍国储库 陈粮以维持老客户，大部分企业等着新豆上市价格指引，预计部分地区9月20日前后或有新粮上市。黑龙江哈尔滨 市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.11元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋 白中粒塔粮装车报价2.10元/斤，较较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价 2.07元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较前一日 平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.19元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场 国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤，较前一日平。 昨日豆一期货反弹动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - end support for natural rubber may continue, with domestic Qingdao port and social inventories showing a slight downward trend. Attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories during the upcoming downstream traditional peak season [8] - For cis - butadiene rubber, the supply - demand situation may improve slightly, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The cost - end support for cis - butadiene rubber still exists [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,885 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), the NR main contract was at 12,715 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton), and the BR main contract was at 11,885 yuan/ton (+65 yuan/ton) [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,900 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), etc. [1] Market Information - Global natural rubber: In July 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, and consumption was expected to drop by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons. In the first 7 months, cumulative production was expected to increase by 0.1% to 7.477 million tons, and cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 0.6% to 8.888 million tons [2] - China's heavy - truck market: In August 2025, the sales volume was about 84,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.586 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. Exports to China totaled 622,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7% [2] - China's natural rubber imports: In July 2025, the import volume was 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [3] - Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, the export volume was 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - China's rubber tire exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, the export volume was 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 3, 2025, the RU basis was - 885 yuan/ton (-15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 985 yuan/ton (-5), etc. [4] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 61.29 baht/kg (+0.31), the price of Thai glue was 55.60 baht/kg (+0), and the price of Thai cup lump was 51.30 baht/kg (+0.10) [5] -开工率：The full - steel tire operating rate was 64.89% (-0.08%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate was 70.97% (-0.90%) [7] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,264,898 tons (-5,911 tons), the inventory at Qingdao Port was 602,295 tons (-3,908 tons), etc. [7] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 3, 2025, the BR basis was - 135 yuan/ton (-65), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (+0), etc. [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 75.85% (+6.70%) [7] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 7,260 tons (+640 tons), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 24,650 tons (-450 tons) [7] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The cost - end support for natural rubber may continue, and attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories during the downstream traditional peak season [8] - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. The supply - demand situation may slightly improve, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The cost - end support for cis - butadiene rubber still exists [8]

2、\t2025年10月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷596美元/吨，涨6美元/吨，丁烷572美元/吨，涨6美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4666元/吨，涨49元/吨，丁烷4478元/吨，涨48元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年10月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷589美元/吨，涨6美元/吨，丁烷565美元/吨，涨6美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4611元/吨，涨48元/吨，丁烷4423元/吨，涨48元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） LPG市场近日呈现震荡偏强走势，主力合约切换到PG2510后盘面支撑有所增强。昨日外盘掉期价格继续上涨，提 振到岸价格，对国内市场存在利多，但需要注意进口成本回升后对下游化工需求的影响。现货方面，整体维稳为 主，市场产销平衡，下游库压尚可。目前市场处于下有支撑、但上行驱动有限的状态，可以继续关注海外供应以 及下游需求的边际变化。 液化石油气日报 | 2025-09-04 到岸价延续上涨，市场情绪尚可 市场分析 1、\t9月3日地区价格：山东市场，4550-4610；东北市场，3910-4260；华北市场，4000-4650；华东市场，4450-4550； 沿江市 ...

1. Market News and Key Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main propylene contract was 6,415 yuan/ton (+10), the spot price in East China was 6,575 yuan/ton (+0), and the spot price in North China was 6,630 yuan/ton (-5). The basis in East China was 160 yuan/ton (-10), and the basis in North China was 215 yuan/ton (-15). The propylene operating rate was 75% (-1%), the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha was 190 US dollars/ton (-4), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR was 89 US dollars/ton (-10), the import profit was -159 yuan/ton (+25), and the in-plant inventory was 39,110 tons (-1,210) [1]. - Propylene downstream: The operating rate of PP powder was 41% (+1.22%), and the production profit was -260 yuan/ton (+5); the operating rate of propylene oxide was 73% (-1%), and the production profit was -120 yuan/ton (-62); the operating rate of n-butanol was 87% (-2%), and the production profit was -123 yuan/ton (+3); the operating rate of octanol was 94% (+2%), and the production profit was 154 yuan/ton (-47); the operating rate of acrylic acid was 69% (-1%), and the production profit was 157 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of acrylonitrile was 74% (+1%), and the production profit was -682 yuan/ton (+30); the operating rate of phenol-ketone was 76% (-2%), and the production profit was -539 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 2. Market Analysis Supply side - Regarding the main PDH units, Hebei Haiwei's 500,000-ton unit was under maintenance, Wanhua Penglai had a restart expectation recently, Shandong Zhenhua's PDH restart was postponed, and Qingdao Jinneng's maintenance continued. The PDH operating rate decreased month-on-month, and the external supply of propylene tightened, which supported the price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the continuous maintenance of the units [2]. Demand side - The operating rates of propylene downstream industries showed a mixed trend. The operating rate of PP increased month-on-month, mainly due to the support from the demand for PP downstream packaging films, injection molding, etc.; the operating rate of octanol continued to rise significantly, while the operating rates of n-butanol, PO, and phenol-ketone declined significantly. The downstream demand showed a slight recovery in the short term, but the overall profit of downstream products was average. The increase in the propylene spot price compressed the downstream profit, and the purchasing enthusiasm of some downstream industries weakened, suppressing the upward space of propylene. Attention should be paid to the stocking demand as the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches [2]. Cost side - OPEC+ has a production increase expectation, and the crude oil price may decline; the Saudi CP propane price in September was 520 US dollars/ton, unchanged month-on-month, and the landed price of the overseas propane swap also has a decline expectation [2]. 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; The expected tightening of PDH propylene supply supports the price, but the downstream profit is under pressure and may lack follow-up strength [2]. - Inter - period: None [2]. - Inter - variety: None [2]. 4. Report Catalog Summary I. Propylene Basis Structure - It includes figures such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [6][9][11]. II. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves figures like the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and the capacity utilization rate of the main crude oil refineries [17][25][32]. III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - It contains figures such as the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39]. IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes figures of the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - ketone [42][44][47]. V. Propylene Inventory - It involves figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [68].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-04 政策预期影响较大，多晶硅盘面偏强运行 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-09-03，工业硅期货价格震荡运行，主力合约2511开于8520元/吨，最后收于8490元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-25） 元/吨，变化（-0.29）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓279742手，2025-09-03仓单总数为50348手，较前一日变化 319手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9000-9200（0）元/吨；421#硅在9300-9500 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8400-8600（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8400-8600（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价也暂稳。97硅价格同样持稳。 根据SMM数据，2025年8月份工业硅产量在38.6万吨，环比增幅14%同比减少19%。2025年1-8月工业硅累计产量同 比减少20%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10500-10800（-50）元/吨。SMM报道，目前下游采购因终端需求无改善， 更偏向于谨慎，导致单体厂整体接单情况不理想，仍维持让利接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC considering further lifting production limits led to a sharp drop in oil prices. However, the factor limiting OPEC's production is Saudi Arabia's production willingness. Saudi Arabia can increase production to 10 million barrels per day but has not done so. Its contradictory approach has confused the market. Under the current supply - demand situation, the traditional policy of limiting production to maintain prices has reached a dead - end. If Saudi Arabia fails to address this issue, it will face a double - loss situation of both oil prices and market share [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped by $1.62, closing at $63.97 per barrel, a decline of 2.47%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for November delivery in London fell by $1.54, closing at $67.60 per barrel, a decline of 2.23%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 1.67%, at 484 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending September 3, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 14.506 million barrels, a decrease of 1.503 million barrels from 16.009 million barrels a week ago. Light distillate inventory decreased by 1.007 million barrels to 6.653 million barrels, a 13.15% month - on - month decrease; medium distillate inventory increased by 418,000 barrels to 2.304 million barrels, a 22.16% month - on - month increase; heavy residual fuel oil inventory decreased by 914,000 barrels to 5.549 million barrels, a 14.14% month - on - month decrease [1] - OPEC+ will consider further increasing oil production at a meeting on Sunday. If so, OPEC+ will start to lift the second - layer production cut of about 1.65 million barrels per day, accounting for 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. Eight OPEC+ member countries will hold an online meeting on Sunday to decide on October's production [1] - A White House official said that the Trump administration hopes Europe to stop buying Russian oil and join its proposed sanctions against countries that continue to purchase Russian oil. In 2024, European countries still bought about $25.5 billion worth of Russian fossil fuels [1] - The expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline last year has made Canada's oil producers' export capacity exceed actual demand, complicating the government's plan to build new oil pipelines. Since the expansion project was put into operation in May 2024, the pipeline capacity in Western Canada has exceeded the actual oil export volume, with an average daily surplus of about 400,000 barrels. In June this year, the surplus soared to a peak of 574,000 barrels per day [1]

航运日报 | 2025-09-04 双子星联盟黄金周空班公布，HPL以及YML 10月上半月价 格挂出 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹37周价格开出为1175/1970，38周价格1035/1730；HPL -SPOT 9月上半月 船期报价1085/1735，9月下半月价格1085/1735，10月上半月价格1085/1735。马士基远东-北欧地区PSS降为50/100. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 9月上半月船期报价1220/2040，9月下半月船期报价1220/2040；ONE9月上半月船期 报价1674/2143，9月下半月船期报价1704/2643；HMM上海-鹿特丹9月上半月船期报价1265/2100; YML9月下半月 至10月15日报价1100/1800。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹9月下半月船期报价1310/2220；EMC 9月份上半月船期价格1455/2210；OOCL 9月船期价格1950-2000美元/FEU。 地缘端：当地时间9月2日，以色列国防军总参谋长扎米尔向预备役军人发表讲话，针对 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-04 升贴水趋于稳定 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-09-03，沪铜主力合约开于 79500元/吨，收于 80110元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.56%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 80000元/吨，收于80260 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.19%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对2509合约升水80-300元/吨，均价190元/吨，较前日跌30元/吨，现货价 80320-80720元/吨。早盘沪铜冲高回落，最高触及80690元/吨后收于80190元/吨，涨0.43%。因铜价高位运行及阅兵 影响市场交投，采销情绪双双走弱，持货商下调报价，平水铜升水降至100元/吨附近，湿法铜近平水。预计此后升 水延续僵持格局，大幅波动概率较低。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观面上，美国经济褐皮书公布，报告指出美联储各辖区反馈显示，由于许多家庭的工资未能跟上物价上涨，消 费者支出持平或下降；随着关税在经济中逐步传导，企业为了弥补成本上升，部分地区提高了商品和服务价格。 就业市场方面，美国7月职位空缺数从6月下修后的736万个降至718.1万个，降至10个月 ...

化工日报 | 2025-09-04 下游恢复不及预期，PTA基差偏弱 市场分析 成本端，俄乌问题的进展陷入了停滞甚至倒退，近期地缘局势继续升温，胡赛武装袭击了以色列敌军占领的雅法 地区，对多个目标进行打击，继续推动油价上行。同时印度无视美国关税制裁，继续购买俄罗斯原油也在需求端 利好油价涨幅扩大。不过宏观层面金融市场巨震，也引发了油价宽幅波动。另外，石脑油近期表现偏强，一方面 乌克兰再度袭击俄罗斯主要石脑油出口港乌斯季卢港，使得石脑油供应预期进一步收窄。另一方面，需求端，东 北亚市场近端买气尚可，且部分裂解装置也将在检修结束后重启，需求预期支撑石脑油经济性继续修复。下游烯 烃临近旺季，效益底部同样具备保障。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN246美元/吨(环比变动-6.25美元/吨）。9月初出光检修装置重启以及后市福海创重启后， 预计国内外PX负荷还将继续上行。近期中国PX负荷陆续恢复，同时PTA检修增加下PX平衡表由去库转为松平衡， 基本面环比转弱,近月PX浮动价有所松动转弱，但PX整体仍处于低库存状态，考虑到新PTA装置对PX的刚需采购， PXN下方有支撑，继续关注窗口商谈和仓单情况。 PR方面，瓶片现货加工 ...