1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance on both RU and NR, as well as BR [10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global supply of natural rubber is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, which may gradually reduce supply pressure. However, there is still concentrated arrivals in China in late January, so the domestic supply is under short - term pressure. With the reduction of global supply pressure and raw material stockpiling by upstream factories, raw material prices are expected to remain firm, providing strong cost support for rubber. The downstream tire operating rate has rebounded, especially for semi - steel tires due to a slight improvement in orders. Currently, the downstream is in the pre - holiday stocking period, which limits the extent of domestic inventory accumulation. The relatively low price of domestic NR compared to Singapore's 20 - grade rubber indicates low valuation, and the rubber price is expected to remain strong in the short term [10]. - For BR, the strong price of butadiene has further enlarged the production loss of cis - butadiene rubber. Some private plants in North China may reduce production or switch production, which will ease short - term supply pressure. Although Maoming Petrochemical has restarted, the supply is still expected to be abundant. The downstream tire operating rate has rebounded, especially for semi - steel tires. Currently, the downstream is in the pre - holiday stocking period, but high prices may suppress stocking willingness, and overall demand remains stable. The support for upstream butadiene mainly comes from export benefits and overseas butadiene plant overhauls. With the continuous decline of domestic butadiene port inventory, the butadiene price is expected to remain strong, and the cis - butadiene rubber price will follow a strong and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback of downstream demand caused by high prices [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,690 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 13,455 yuan/ton, up 265 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 13,390 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,450 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,450 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,000 US dollars/ton, up 55 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,940 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Market Information - **Natural Rubber Imports**: In December 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) were 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import volume was 6.6751 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.94% [2]. - **Rubber Tire Exports**: In 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 9.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 167.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Among them, the exports of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 9.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 161.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 7.0162 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [2]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.296 million and 3.272 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and 4.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% and 6.2% respectively. In 2025, the annual automobile production and sales were 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively, setting a new historical high and ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years [2]. ANRPC Report and Industry Trends - ANRPC's November 2025 report predicts that the global natural rubber production in November is expected to decrease by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; the consumption is expected to decrease by 1.4% to 1.248 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month. In the first 11 months, the cumulative global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 2% to 13.375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption is expected to decrease by 1.7% to 13.932 million tons [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises fluctuated this week. The production of semi - steel tires increased slightly due to foreign trade orders, and most enterprises remained stable. The shipment of all - steel tires was under pressure, and some enterprises controlled production, resulting in a slight decrease in utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will be slightly weak and stable this week. During the pre - holiday stocking period, the production arrangement of enterprises has not been significantly adjusted, and inventory is stocked to ensure post - holiday supply. Some all - steel tire enterprises may moderately reduce production due to slow shipment and high finished product inventory [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On January 29, 2026, the RU basis was - 240 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,240 yuan/ton (+80), the NR basis was 499.00 yuan/ton (+122.00); the price of whole latex was 16,450 yuan/ton (+350), the price of mixed rubber was 15,450 yuan/ton (+250), the price of 3L spot was 16,800 yuan/ton (+300). The STR20 was quoted at 2,000 US dollars/ton (+55), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,450 yuan/ton (+250) [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 61.11 Thai baht/kg (+0.34), the price of Thai glue was 58.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.30), the price of Thai cup lump was 53.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.50), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.80 Thai baht/kg (-0.20) [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.47% (-0.06%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.32% (+0.48%) [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 584,504 tons (-393), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,271,830 tons (-2,137), the RU futures inventory was 109,870 tons (+1,480), and the NR futures inventory was 55,339 tons (-1,411) [6]. Cis - Butadiene Rubber (BR) - **Spot and Spreads**: On January 29, 2026, the BR basis was - 590 yuan/ton (-125), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 10,600 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 13,000 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 12,900 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 12,500 yuan/ton (+0), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 579 yuan/ton (+16) [7]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 76.38% (+0.26%) [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 6,780 tons (+430), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,650 tons (-1,400) [9].

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of fuel oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 4% at 2,831 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 3.09% at 3,307 yuan/ton [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, with an increasing risk of the US striking Iran. Coupled with the overall enthusiastic sentiment in commodities, oil prices rose again yesterday, driving up the prices of FU and LU. Among them, FU is more elastic to the Iran conflict [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis High-sulfur Fuel Oil - The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has improved marginally recently, with spot discounts, calendar spreads, and crack spreads strengthening significantly, and downstream demand performing relatively well [2] - After the US gradually controls Venezuelan oil resources, domestic asphalt refineries need to find alternative raw materials, and fuel oil is one of the options. According to shipping schedule data, the arrival volume of high-sulfur fuel oil in China is expected to increase in January and February [2] - As the geopolitical situation in Iran heats up, the regional fuel oil supply faces potential threats from geopolitical conflicts, which constitutes the main upward risk in the current market. However, if the situation in Iran eases, FU does not have the momentum to continue strengthening [2] Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The current market contradictions of low-sulfur fuel oil are limited, mainly following the passive rise of the crude oil end. Recently, the crack spread has been oscillating strongly, but there is no clear trend [2] - With the dynamic changes in the Dangote and Azur refinery units, the supply in Nigeria and Kuwait has increased significantly. In addition, after the widening of the east-west spread, the volume of arbitrage cargoes may increase in February, and the local market pressure may increase [2] - Looking forward, the contradictions of surplus production capacity and the replacement of the demand share in the marine fuel sector still exist, which will be a continuous upward resistance. However, based on the current valuation level, the high premium of gasoline and diesel will continue to divert low-sulfur oil components, providing a certain support for the valuation. Recently, the spread of low-sulfur fuel oil to gasoline and diesel has rebounded, partially reflecting the diversion of raw materials by RFCC units, resulting in a marginal convergence of the premium [2] Group 3: Strategy High-sulfur Fuel Oil - Short-term oscillating strongly, pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran [3] Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Short-term oscillating strongly, pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran [3] Spread Trading - No specific strategy [3] Calendar Spread - Pay attention to the opportunity to go long the spread between FU2603 and FU2605 (positive spread) at low levels [3] Futures-Spot Arbitrage - No specific strategy [3] Options - No specific strategy [3]

国债期货日报 | 2026-01-30 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 债市逐渐修复，国债期货大多收涨 财政：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压力 不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上更 加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专项债发 行提速带动支出同比转正，对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看，当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期 对经济形成一定支撑，但更强拉动仍有赖于准财政资金和明年政策加码的进一步落地。 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-30 市场情绪高涨，煤价低位反弹 玻璃纯碱：市场情绪提振，玻碱震荡反弹 供需与逻辑：玻璃市场短期供应偏紧格局延续，产线冷修持续推进叠加库存去化明显，供应端趋紧对价格形成支 撑；下游春节前备货需求亦为市场刚需提供一定支撑。后续需重点跟踪产线冷修进展及企业补库节奏。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱 2605 主力合约震荡反弹。现货市场报价随盘面波动，成交价企稳，下游企业以刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱市场供应过剩的弱现实格局未明显改善，库存虽累库幅度不及市场预期，但仍处于高位；需求 端，浮法玻璃步入消费淡季，市场以春节刚需备货为主，后续需关注长假期间企业补库节奏。此外，受市场情绪 回暖带动，纯碱投机性需求有所回升。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃2605主力合约有所反弹，成交量与持仓量较前日有所增加，交投活跃。现货报价随盘面价格 波动，部分厂家报价上涨。 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进度、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：市场情绪提振，盘面震荡上行 市场分析 硅锰方面：昨日锰硅主力合约受黑色系期货影响，收涨1. ...

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聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-30 油价反弹走高，成本端支撑偏强 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7049元/吨（+82），PP主力合约收盘价为6870元/吨（+92），LL华北现货为6890 元/吨（+60），LL华东现货为6950元/吨（+50），PP华东现货为6640元/吨（+30），LL华北基差为-159元/吨（-22）， LL华东基差为-99元/吨（-32）， PP华东基差为-230元/吨（-62）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为85.4%（+0.7%），PP开工率为74.8%（-1.2%）。 单边：LLDPE谨慎逢低做多套保，PP谨慎逢低做多套保；短期成本端波动偏强，但需关注聚烯烃当前供需基本面 仍偏弱，反弹持续性或受限，持续关注地缘局势变化。 跨期：无 进出口方面，LL进口利润为50.6元/吨（-315.1），PP进口利润为-323.1元/吨（+89.7），PP出口利润为-69.5美元/吨（-1.4）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为34.6%（-1.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为42.1%（-2.9%），PP下游塑编开工率 为42.0%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP ...