农产品日报 | 2025-09-05 消费提振不足，猪价偏弱震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约13365元/吨，较前交易日变动-185.00元/吨，幅度-1.37%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.97元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差 LH11+605，较前交易日变动+195；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 14.06元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.08元/公斤，现货基差LH11+695，较前交易日变动+105；四 川地区外三元生猪价格13.77元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH11+405，较前交易日变动+185。 据农业农村部监测，9月4日"农产品批发价格200指数"为117.86，比昨天上升0.28个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为118.66，比昨天上升0.34个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为19.85元/公斤，比昨天下降0.9%；牛肉65.43 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；羊肉60.68元/公斤，比昨天下降0.6%；鸡蛋7.74元/公斤，与昨天持平；白条鸡17.62元/ 公斤，比昨天上升2.0%。 市场分析 综 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Unilateral - Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] - Polysilicon: Unilateral - Short - term range operation; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [7] 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the spot price remains stable, the inventory decreases slightly, the supply - demand change is small, and the market is mainly influenced by overall commodity sentiment [1][2] - For polysilicon, the weekly output decreases slightly, the upstream inventory goes through slight destocking, and the market is affected by anti - involution policy expectations and fundamentals. Policy implementation and spot price transmission need to be continuously monitored, and polysilicon is suitable for long - term bottom - fishing [3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On September 4, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8405 yuan/ton and closed at 8515 yuan/ton, a change of 0.12% from the previous settlement. The main contract held 277,305 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,072, a decrease of 276 from the previous day [1] - The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton [1] - On September 4, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 537,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week. The ordinary social warehouse had 117,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons, and the social delivery warehouse had 420,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons [1] Consumption End - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 10,500 - 10,800 yuan/ton. Shandong monomer enterprises' DMC was quoted at 10,800 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from the previous week. Other domestic monomer enterprises' DMC was mainly quoted at 11,000 - 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 - 1000 yuan/ton from the previous week [2] - The upstream and downstream are in a deep game. Monomer enterprises adopt a promotional strategy, but some downstream enterprises are cautious due to the lack of improvement in terminal orders [2] Strategy - The spot price remains stable, the inventory decreases slightly, the supply - demand change is small, and the market is mainly influenced by overall commodity sentiment [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On September 4, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2511 fluctuated slightly, opening at 51,700 yuan/ton and closing at 52,195 yuan/ton, a 0.55% change from the previous trading day. The main contract held 145,950 lots, and the trading volume was 268,080 lots [3] - The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The N - type material was 49.00 - 54.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg [3] - The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, the silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 21.10 (a - 0.90% change), the silicon wafer inventory was 16.85GW (a - 6.65% change), the weekly polysilicon output was 30,200.00 tons (a - 2.58% change), and the silicon wafer output was 13.78GW (a 3.53% change) [5] Strategy - The weekly output decreases slightly, the upstream inventory goes through slight destocking, and the market is affected by anti - involution policy expectations and fundamentals. Policy implementation and spot price transmission need to be continuously monitored, and polysilicon is suitable for long - term bottom - fishing [7] Policy - On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", aiming to promote the high - quality development of the photovoltaic field, guide local layout, and strengthen product quality management [6]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-09-05 需求弱现实，聚烯烃期现走低 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7225元/吨（-22），PP主力合约收盘价为6939元/吨（-15），LL华北现货为7150 元/吨（-30），LL华东现货为7170元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6830元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-75元/吨（-8），LL华 东基差为-55元/吨（+22）， PP华东基差为-109元/吨（+15）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为80.5%（+1.9%），PP开工率为79.9%（-0.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为218.2元/吨（+111.1），PP油制生产利润为-361.8元/吨（+111.1），PDH制PP生产 利润为-253.7元/吨（-102.2）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-246.2元/吨（+34.0），PP进口利润为-586.2元/吨（+14.0），PP出口利润为35.9美元/吨 （+3.6）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为20.2%（+2.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.5%（+0.9%），PP下游塑编开工 率为42.7%（+0.4%），PP下游 ...

股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 期权成交量 2025-09-04，上证50ETF期权成交量为169.38万张；沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交量为156.69万张； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交量为231.31万张；深证100ETF期权成交量为27.33万张； 创业板ETF期权成交量为354.81万张；上证50股指期权成交量为8.66万张； 沪深300股指期权成交量为18.20万张；中证1000期权总成交量为44.43万张。 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.87，环比变动为+0.26；持仓量PCR报0.81，环比变动为-0.07； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报1.00，环比变动为+0.34；持仓量PCR报1.02，环比变动为-0.11； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报1.30，环比变动为+0.33；持仓量PCR报0.98，环比变动为-0.12 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报0.69 ，环比变动为-0.04；持仓量PCR报0.98；环比变动为-0.19； 创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报0.95，环比变动为+0.39 ；持仓量PCR报1.13，环比变动为-0. ...

FICC日报 | 2025-09-05 美债市场波动加剧，关注美国8月非农数据 市场分析 8月海外通胀上升迹象初显。全球7月的经济数据仍有韧性：中国7月按美元计出口同比增长7.2%，高于预期，主要 受去年低基数和"抢出口"效应支撑；金融数据中，货币供给超预期，但融资和贷款数据仍弱；经济数据中，投资 数据仍有明显压力，国内月频经济数据仍有压力。国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止 跌回稳态势，培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资。中共中央、国务院印发关于推动城市高质量发展的意见。 意见提出，发展组团式、网络化的现代化城市群和都市圈，持续推动城镇老旧小区改造。商务部宣布，将于9月出 台扩大服务消费的若干政策措施。中国8月官方制造业PMI小幅回升至49.4，新订单指数升至49.5，非制造业加速扩 张。9月4日，A股市场全天震荡调整，创业板指领跌，科创50指数跌近6%。个股跌多涨少，沪深京三市近3000股 飘绿，创业板指高开低走跌4.25%，券商、银行等金融股逆势活跃。近期，股指的IC和IM期货基差有所走阔，关注 后续基差变化及风险。美国方面，8月ISM制造业指数连续第六个月萎缩，新订单改善，价格指数 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The LPG market sentiment shows signs of marginal improvement, but the sharp decline in oil prices yesterday led to a correction in the futures market. Although PG is relatively resistant to decline in the energy sector, it cannot completely escape the impact. The spot market shows mixed trends, with prices in North China, East China, Northwest China, and South China rising steadily, prices in the Yangtze River region declining, and prices in other regions remaining stable. The LPG market is currently in a state with support at the bottom but limited upward momentum. If OPEC continues to increase production in the future, it will not only drive down oil prices but also increase the supply of Middle East LPG following the increase in crude oil, putting new pressure on the LPG market [1]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The market is expected to be moderately bullish. It is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to go long on the PG main contract on dips, but the upside potential is expected to be limited [2]. - **Inter - period**: No specific strategy is proposed [2]. - **Inter - commodity**: No specific strategy is proposed [2]. - **Futures - spot**: No specific strategy is proposed [2]. - **Options**: No specific strategy is proposed [2]. Market Analysis - **Regional Spot Prices on September 4**: Shandong market: 4,550 - 4,610 yuan/ton; Northeast market: 3,900 - 4,280 yuan/ton; North China market: 4,050 - 4,650 yuan/ton; East China market: 4,450 - 4,570 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market: 4,760 - 4,900 yuan/ton; Northwest market: 4,550 - 4,720 yuan/ton; South China market: 4,438 - 4,660 yuan/ton [1]. - **China's East China Frozen Cargo Arrival Prices in the First Half of October 2025**: Propane: 594 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4,646 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; Butane: 570 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4,459 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton [1]. - **China's South China Frozen Cargo Arrival Prices in the First Half of October 2025**: Propane: 587 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4,592 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton; Butane: 563 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4,404 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton [1].

化工日报 | 2025-09-05 下游轮胎厂开工率环比下降 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15960元/吨，较前一日变动+75元/吨；NR主力合约12735元/吨，较前一日变动+20 元/吨；BR主力合约11810元/吨，较前一日变动-75元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15050元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14900元/吨，较前一 日变动+20元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1845美元/吨，较前一日变动+5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1785 美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12100元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11800元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 ANRPC最新发布的2025年7月报告预测，7月全球天胶产量料微降0.1%至132.8万吨，较上月增加7.9%；天胶消费量 料降4.1%至124.6万吨，较上月下降0.3%。前7个月，全球天胶累计产量料增0.1%至747.7万吨，累计消费量则降0.6% 至888.8万吨。 据第一商用车网统计数据显示，2025年8月份，我 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-09-05 现货购销冷清，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3048元/吨，较前日变动-18元/吨，幅度-0.59%；菜粕2601合约2519元/吨，较前 日变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.08%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3060元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01+12， 较前日变动+18；江苏地区豆粕现货2970元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差M01-78，较前日变动-2；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2950元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M01-98，较前日变动+8。福建地区菜粕现货价格2640 元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM01+121，较前日变动+2。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部月度压榨报告显示，7月份美国大豆压榨量2.047亿蒲，高于6月的1.971亿蒲，也高于去 年同期的1.935亿蒲，为历史同期最高纪录，但略低于市场预期。7月底美国豆油库存18.73亿磅，为近7个月最低， 也低于市场预期的18.95亿磅。 市场分析 整体来看，当前国内豆粕库存继续增加，虽低于去年同期，但是100万吨以上的库存使得 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-09-05 糖浆政策调整发酵，郑糖期价维持弱势 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约14010元/吨，较前一日变动+20元/吨，幅度+0.14%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15352元/吨，较前一日变动-21元/吨，现货基差CF01+1342，较前一日变动-41；3128B棉全国均价15451元/吨， 较前一日变动-14元/吨，现货基差CF01+1441，较前一日变动-34。 近期市场资讯，据印度有关机构消息，印度全国播种进度仍落后于去年同期。截至8月29日，印度新年度棉花播种 面积达1088万公顷（约16320万亩），较去年同期1114万公顷（约16710万亩）减少约2.3%。从种植数据来看，月内 新棉种植面积增加不足30万公顷，播种进度逐渐放缓。巴基斯坦棉花加工协会（PCGA）最新数据显示，截至8月 31日，巴基斯坦新年度籽棉上市量折皮棉约20.7万吨，较前两周增加6.9万吨，环比增加50.5%。高于去年同期的19.1 万吨，同比增加约8.6%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续震荡。国际方面，近期印度延长暂免关税时间，对美棉起到一定支撑作用。8月U ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil investment rating: Sideways [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil investment rating: Sideways [2] - Cross-variety investment rating: None [2] - Cross-period investment rating: None [2] - Futures-spot investment rating: None [2] - Options investment rating: None [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical and macroeconomic situation remains unclear, especially the limited progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks, leading to many uncertainties in the short term for the crude oil market. The news of OPEC's plan to further increase production caused oil prices to decline again, driving down the FU and LU futures prices [1]. - High-sulfur fuel oil is in a stage of market adjustment and rebalancing, with mixed bullish and bearish factors. Supply has tightened due to sanctions on Russia and Iran and drone attacks on Russian refineries by Ukraine, while Middle Eastern fuel oil exports are increasing, and domestic refinery procurement demand remains weak [1]. - The low-sulfur fuel oil market currently faces limited pressure, with domestic production at a low level, the overseas market in a mild Back structure, and the spot premium turning negative. In the short term, the market structure is relatively stable but lacks strong drivers. In the medium term, low-sulfur fuel oil still faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and excess capacity, so while there is some support below the valuation, there is also significant upward resistance [1]. Group 3: Market Analysis Summary - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 2.4% at 2,760 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3.21% at 3,412 yuan/ton [1]. - Brent crude oil prices fell below $67 per barrel, driving down the FU and LU futures prices [1]. - High-sulfur fuel oil market drivers are limited, with supply tightening and weak demand [1]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil market structure is stable in the short term but faces challenges in the medium term [1]. Group 4: Strategy Summary - High-sulfur fuel oil strategy: Sideways [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil strategy: Sideways [2] - Cross-variety strategy: None [2] - Cross-period strategy: None [2] - Futures-spot strategy: None [2] - Options strategy: None [2]