1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC considering further lifting production limits led to a sharp drop in oil prices. However, the factor limiting OPEC's production is Saudi Arabia's production willingness. Saudi Arabia can increase production to 10 million barrels per day but has not done so. Its contradictory approach has confused the market. Under the current supply - demand situation, the traditional policy of limiting production to maintain prices has reached a dead - end. If Saudi Arabia fails to address this issue, it will face a double - loss situation of both oil prices and market share [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped by $1.62, closing at $63.97 per barrel, a decline of 2.47%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for November delivery in London fell by $1.54, closing at $67.60 per barrel, a decline of 2.23%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 1.67%, at 484 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending September 3, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 14.506 million barrels, a decrease of 1.503 million barrels from 16.009 million barrels a week ago. Light distillate inventory decreased by 1.007 million barrels to 6.653 million barrels, a 13.15% month - on - month decrease; medium distillate inventory increased by 418,000 barrels to 2.304 million barrels, a 22.16% month - on - month increase; heavy residual fuel oil inventory decreased by 914,000 barrels to 5.549 million barrels, a 14.14% month - on - month decrease [1] - OPEC+ will consider further increasing oil production at a meeting on Sunday. If so, OPEC+ will start to lift the second - layer production cut of about 1.65 million barrels per day, accounting for 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. Eight OPEC+ member countries will hold an online meeting on Sunday to decide on October's production [1] - A White House official said that the Trump administration hopes Europe to stop buying Russian oil and join its proposed sanctions against countries that continue to purchase Russian oil. In 2024, European countries still bought about $25.5 billion worth of Russian fossil fuels [1] - The expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline last year has made Canada's oil producers' export capacity exceed actual demand, complicating the government's plan to build new oil pipelines. Since the expansion project was put into operation in May 2024, the pipeline capacity in Western Canada has exceeded the actual oil export volume, with an average daily surplus of about 400,000 barrels. In June this year, the surplus soared to a peak of 574,000 barrels per day [1]

航运日报 | 2025-09-04 双子星联盟黄金周空班公布，HPL以及YML 10月上半月价 格挂出 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹37周价格开出为1175/1970，38周价格1035/1730；HPL -SPOT 9月上半月 船期报价1085/1735，9月下半月价格1085/1735，10月上半月价格1085/1735。马士基远东-北欧地区PSS降为50/100. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 9月上半月船期报价1220/2040，9月下半月船期报价1220/2040；ONE9月上半月船期 报价1674/2143，9月下半月船期报价1704/2643；HMM上海-鹿特丹9月上半月船期报价1265/2100; YML9月下半月 至10月15日报价1100/1800。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹9月下半月船期报价1310/2220；EMC 9月份上半月船期价格1455/2210；OOCL 9月船期价格1950-2000美元/FEU。 地缘端：当地时间9月2日，以色列国防军总参谋长扎米尔向预备役军人发表讲话，针对 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-04 升贴水趋于稳定 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-09-03，沪铜主力合约开于 79500元/吨，收于 80110元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.56%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 80000元/吨，收于80260 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.19%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对2509合约升水80-300元/吨，均价190元/吨，较前日跌30元/吨，现货价 80320-80720元/吨。早盘沪铜冲高回落，最高触及80690元/吨后收于80190元/吨，涨0.43%。因铜价高位运行及阅兵 影响市场交投，采销情绪双双走弱，持货商下调报价，平水铜升水降至100元/吨附近，湿法铜近平水。预计此后升 水延续僵持格局，大幅波动概率较低。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观面上，美国经济褐皮书公布，报告指出美联储各辖区反馈显示，由于许多家庭的工资未能跟上物价上涨，消 费者支出持平或下降；随着关税在经济中逐步传导，企业为了弥补成本上升，部分地区提高了商品和服务价格。 就业市场方面，美国7月职位空缺数从6月下修后的736万个降至718.1万个，降至10个月 ...

化工日报 | 2025-09-04 下游恢复不及预期，PTA基差偏弱 市场分析 成本端，俄乌问题的进展陷入了停滞甚至倒退，近期地缘局势继续升温，胡赛武装袭击了以色列敌军占领的雅法 地区，对多个目标进行打击，继续推动油价上行。同时印度无视美国关税制裁，继续购买俄罗斯原油也在需求端 利好油价涨幅扩大。不过宏观层面金融市场巨震，也引发了油价宽幅波动。另外，石脑油近期表现偏强，一方面 乌克兰再度袭击俄罗斯主要石脑油出口港乌斯季卢港，使得石脑油供应预期进一步收窄。另一方面，需求端，东 北亚市场近端买气尚可，且部分裂解装置也将在检修结束后重启，需求预期支撑石脑油经济性继续修复。下游烯 烃临近旺季，效益底部同样具备保障。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN246美元/吨(环比变动-6.25美元/吨）。9月初出光检修装置重启以及后市福海创重启后， 预计国内外PX负荷还将继续上行。近期中国PX负荷陆续恢复，同时PTA检修增加下PX平衡表由去库转为松平衡， 基本面环比转弱,近月PX浮动价有所松动转弱，但PX整体仍处于低库存状态，考虑到新PTA装置对PX的刚需采购， PXN下方有支撑，继续关注窗口商谈和仓单情况。 PR方面，瓶片现货加工 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-09-04 市场矛盾有限，现货价格持稳 市场分析 1、9月3日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2510合约下午收盘价3550元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌0.36%；持仓93085 手，环比下降12775手，成交101178手，环比减少51331手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3806—4086元/吨；山东，3510—3820 元/吨；华南，3490—3540元/吨； 华东，3560—3750元/吨。 昨日山东市场沥青现货价格小幅上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。原油价格短期震荡偏强，沥青成本端支 撑仍存，但欧佩克可能会进一步增产，油市面临潜在下行压力。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续， 库存维持低位，炼厂与社会端去库态势延续，整体压力有限。目前来看，沥青市场来自自身基本面的驱动不足， 因此在盘面反弹后，需要注意油价回落对盘面的利空影响。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential. For the stainless - steel market, with eight consecutive weeks of inventory decline and rising material costs, stainless - steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding, and the demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 3, 2025, the main nickel contract 2510 opened at 122,000 yuan/ton and closed at 121,790 yuan/ton, a - 1.10% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 125,550 (- 3,232) lots, and the open interest was 84,729 (- 6,033) lots. Affected by the stronger US dollar index and the fading impact of the Indonesia event, the night - session price dropped sharply and then oscillated at a low level, with a daily - session amplitude of only 0.87% [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The CIF price of 1.4% nickel ore was 50.5, showing a rising trend. The offer for 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines to Indonesia was 43.44. The Philippine side had firm quotes and good shipping efficiency. The domestic ferronickel price was stable, but domestic iron plants were still in the red and purchased cautiously. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply was relatively loose, and the September (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, with the premium remaining at +24 [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,300 yuan/ton, a 1,800 - yuan drop from the previous day. Refined nickel trading was okay, and the spot premiums of each brand were stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 21,860 (- 96) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 214,230 (+3,996) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term nickel prices are mainly volatile, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 3, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2510 opened at 12,940 yuan/ton and closed at 12,915 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 87,549 (- 43,080) lots, and the open interest was 86,864 (- 4,171) lots. The night - session opened slightly lower, then rebounded and oscillated around 12,965 yuan/ton. The daily - session gave back the night - session gains, with a minimum drop to 12,885 yuan/ton. The daily amplitude was only 0.81%, and the trading volume decreased by 43,100 lots compared to the previous day [3]. - **Spot**: The weakening of futures prices led to stronger market wait - and - see sentiment. Traders' price - concession behavior did not support spot transactions. Downstream acceptance of high - priced goods was low, and market competition was fierce, resulting in poor transaction volume. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,250 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 355 - 655 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 943.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - With eight consecutive weeks of inventory decline and rising material costs, stainless - steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding. The strategy for single - side trading is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3][4].

供需与逻辑：目前玻璃需求端依旧偏弱无明显改善，高库存去库压力较大，但天然气以外产线仍有生产利润，玻 璃产量下降不够充分，玻璃供需矛盾持续，价格偏弱运行。 黑色建材日报 | 2025-09-04 钢厂利润走缩，电炉持续减产 玻璃纯碱：产销相对平稳，玻碱盘面震荡 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃盘面震荡运行。现货方面，下游采购情绪谨慎，以刚需为主。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱盘面窄幅震荡运行。现货方面，下游需求刚需补库为主。 供需与逻辑：今年夏检季节性表现偏弱，整体供应高位波动。下游消费目前表现平稳，伴随下半年新增产能的落 地，且纯碱消费存进一步走弱预期，纯碱供需失衡将继续加剧，因此仍需通过亏损制约产能释放，叠加目前盘面 升水，进一步压制纯碱价格，后期关注 "反内卷"系列政策对光伏方面造成的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、玻璃产线冷修情况、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双硅：供需格局趋松，合金盘整偏弱 市场分析 硅锰方面，昨日锰硅期货跟随板块运行，主力合约收于5732元/吨，跌幅0.21%。现货方面，工厂生产积极性尚可， 6517北方市场价格 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-09-04 现货涨跌互现，豆粕宽幅震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3066元/吨，较前日变动+16元/吨，幅度+0.52%；菜粕2601合约2521元/吨，较前 日变动+21元/吨，幅度+0.84%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3060元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M01-6， 较前日变动-26；江苏地区豆粕现货2990元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-76，较前日变动-16；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2960元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M01-106，较前日变动-6。福建地区菜粕现货价格2640 元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM01+119，较前日变动-1。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部在每周作物生长报告中公布称，截至2025年8月31日当周，美国大豆优良率为65%，低 于市场预期的68%，前一周为69%，上年同期为65%。美国大豆结荚率为94%，上一周为89%，上年同期为93%， 五年均值为94%。美国大豆落叶率为11%，上一周为4%，上年同期为12%，五年均值为10%。美国农业部公布的周 度出口检验报告显示， ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-04 北方运输生产限制解除 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20730元/吨，较上一交易日变化20元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-30元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价20570元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-30元/吨至-190元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录20670元/吨，较上一交易日变化20元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-85元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-09-03日沪铝主力合约开于20680元/吨，收于20710元/吨，较上一交易日变化-5元/吨，最高 价达20885元/吨，最低价达到20660元/吨。全天交易日成交135601手，全天交易日持仓218039手。 库存方面，截止2025-09-03，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存62.3万吨，较上一期变化0.3吨，仓单库存59557 吨，较上一交易日变化903吨，LME铝库存479600吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-09-03SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3155元/吨，山东价格录得3130元/吨，河南价格录得 3170元/吨，广西价格录得3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of polyolefins has increased significantly due to the commissioning of new capacity and the increase in the overall operating rate of existing devices. The upstream inventory has shifted downward, with a slight decrease in production enterprise inventory and inventory accumulation in the middle - link, resulting in certain pressure on the supply side. The cost - end support is weak, and the demand side is slowly rising but lacks short - term new orders, with limited upward - driving force [3]. - For trading strategies, a neutral stance is taken for single - side trading; a 01 - 05 reverse spread is recommended for inter - period trading; and going long on the L - P spread is suggested for inter - variety trading [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7247 yuan/ton (- 5), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6954 yuan/ton (+ 11). The LL spot price in North China is 7180 yuan/ton (+ 10), in East China is 7170 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the PP spot price in East China is 6830 yuan/ton (- 20). The LL basis in North China is - 67 yuan/ton (+ 15), in East China is - 77 yuan/ton (+ 5), and the PP basis in East China is - 124 yuan/ton (- 31) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 78.7% (+ 0.0%), and the PP operating rate is 80.2% (+ 2.0%). The PE oil - based production profit is 107.1 yuan/ton (- 95.7), the PP oil - based production profit is - 452.9 yuan/ton (- 95.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 151.5 yuan/ton (- 125.4) [1]. 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Spread - Not provided with specific content in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 280.1 yuan/ton (- 20.0), the PP import profit is - 600.1 yuan/ton (- 50.0), and the PP export profit is 32.4 US dollars/ton (+ 6.2) [2]. 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural film is 17.5% (+ 2.9%), the operating rate of PE downstream packaging film is 49.6% (- 0.3%), the operating rate of PP downstream plastic weaving is 42.3% (+ 0.3%), and the operating rate of PP downstream BOPP film is 60.4% (- 0.3%) [2]. 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The upstream inventory has shifted downward, with a slight decrease in production enterprise inventory and inventory accumulation in the middle - link, indicating certain pressure on the supply side [3].