港口库存压力仍大，盘面再度回落 甲醇观点 甲醇日报 | 2025-08-27 跨品种：观望 风险 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤445元/吨（-15），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润715元/吨（+28）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2080元/吨（-3），内蒙北线基差285元/吨（+27），内蒙南线2080元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2345元/吨（-5）， 鲁南基差150元/吨（+24）；河南2230元/吨（+5），河南基差35元/吨（+34）；河北2240元/吨（+0），河北基差105元 /吨（+29）。隆众内地工厂库存310793吨（+15220），西北工厂库存198000吨（+15500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单207370 吨（-11995），西北工厂待发订单105200吨（-1800）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2272元/吨（-28），太仓基差-123元/吨（+1），CFR中国265美元/吨（+3），华东进口价差-29元/ 吨（-19），常州甲醇2445元/吨；广东甲醇2285元/吨（-10），广东基差-110元/吨（+19）。隆众港口总库存1075960 吨（+54160），江苏港口库存5 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical uncertainty persists, and the market fluctuates. The fuel oil futures show a short - term upward trend due to the short - term strengthening of the oil market sentiment, but the upside space of oil prices is limited considering geopolitical and macro uncertainties and the expected future loosening of the crude oil balance sheet [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is in the stage of structural adjustment and market re - balancing. The supply pressure has eased, but the upward driving force is not obvious. After the peak consumption season for power generation, it will face the pressure of increased Middle East exports. The FU valuation has been repaired, but new warehouse receipts and price differentials still face resistance [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil currently has limited market pressure, with low domestic production and a tightening overseas supply trend. In the medium - term, it faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and excess capacity, so the upward resistance is also large [1]. - Both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short - term and face crude - oil - end suppression in the medium - term [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.07% at 2,880 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.23% at 3,529 yuan/ton [1]. - The limited progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the dovish signals from Powell last week strengthened the short - term sentiment in the oil market, driving the rebound of energy - sector commodities. However, the upside space of oil prices is limited [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: The supply pressure has eased, but the upward driving force is not obvious. After the power - generation consumption peak season, it will face the pressure of increased Middle East exports. The FU valuation has been repaired, but 26,600 tons of new warehouse receipts were registered, and price differentials still face resistance [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The current market pressure is limited, with low domestic production and a tightening overseas supply trend. In the medium - term, it faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and excess capacity [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Volatile and slightly strong in the short - term, facing crude - oil - end suppression in the medium - term [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Volatile and slightly strong in the short - term, facing crude - oil - end suppression in the medium - term [2]. - Cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options: No specific strategies are provided [2].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is cautiously bullish, while the rating for BR is neutral [5][6] Core Viewpoint - For natural rubber, due to the rainy season in major production areas, raw material output is limited and prices are expected to remain firm. After the rain stops, production may increase. In China, there is an expectation of increased arrivals at the end of August, which may lead to inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port. However, the purchasing intention of downstream tire factories before the peak season also needs attention. Overall, the supply and demand in China are expected to be strong in the later period [5] - For BR, the upstream production is stable and the inventory is relatively low year - on - year. The improvement of downstream production profit is conducive to the increase of the operating rate. The cost of BR still has support. The upstream supply is abundant and the supply is expected to increase month - on - month. The downstream demand is still in the off - season, and there is still pressure for inventory accumulation in the later period. The production of BR continues to be in a loss pattern, and the prices of upstream butadiene raw materials and surrounding natural rubber support the bottom of BR [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures Prices**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,885 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,790 yuan/ton, a change of + 5 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,845 yuan/ton, a change of - 165 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,800 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,830 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,785 US dollars/ton, a change of + 0 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, a change of + 200 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,850 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - **Thai Natural Rubber Exports**: From January to July 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.586 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber was 919,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 227,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25%; the export of latex was 431,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%. From January to July, Thailand's exports of natural rubber to China totaled 622,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. Among them, the export of standard rubber to China totaled 398,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15%; the export of smoked sheet rubber to China totaled 65,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 306%; the export of latex to China totaled 157,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65% [2] - **China's Natural Rubber Imports**: In July 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including technically specified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [3] - **Côte d'Ivoire's Rubber Exports**: From January to July 2025, Côte d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared with the same period in 2024. Looking at the data for July alone, the export volume increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [3] - **China's Rubber Tire Exports**: From January to July 2025, China's exports of rubber tires reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%; the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to July, the export volume of automobile tires was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On August 26, 2025, the RU basis was - 985 yuan/ton (- 30), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,085 yuan/ton (+ 30), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,778 yuan/ton (- 160.25), the NR basis was 237.00 yuan/ton (- 72.00); the price of whole latex was 14,900 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of 3L spot was 15,050 yuan/ton (- 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,830 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 150 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,300 yuan/ton (- 250) [4] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 63.20 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.90), the price of Thai rubber latex was 55.45 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.20), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.25), the difference between Thai rubber latex and cup lump was 5.35 Thai baht/kg (- 0.05) [4] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.97% (+ 2.35%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.87% (+ 2.76%) [4] - **Inventories**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,285,363 tons (+ 7,504.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 606,203 tons (- 10,528), the RU futures inventory was 178,470 tons (- 1,460), and the NR futures inventory was 44,857 tons (- 1,612) [4] BR - **Spot and Spreads**: On August 26, 2025, the BR basis was - 45 yuan/ton (+ 65), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (+ 100), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton (+ 200), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,850 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11,700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,114 yuan/ton (- 138) [5] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 69.15% (+ 4.63%) [5] - **Inventories**: The inventory of BR traders was 7,410 tons (+ 420), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 23,200 tons (- 250) [5]

农产品日报 | 2025-08-27 市场供应充足，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13860元/吨，较前交易日变动-50.00元/吨，幅度-0.36%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.48元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.19元/公斤，现货基差 LH09-380，较前交易日变动-140；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 13.69元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.08元/公斤，现货基差LH09-170，较前交易日变动-30；四川地 区外三元生猪价格13.53元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.12元/公斤，现货基差LH09-330，较前交易日变动-70。 据农业农村部监测，8月26日"农产品批发价格200指数"为116.09，比昨天上升0.31个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为116.59，比昨天上升0.36个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.01元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；牛肉64.91 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；羊肉59.66元/公斤，比昨天下降0.7%；鸡蛋7.61元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；白条鸡17.67 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.6%。 市场分析 ...

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recently, the impact of exports on sentiment has weakened. Manufacturers have lowered prices to attract orders, and downstream buyers are cautious. Spot prices have fallen to previous lows, and trading has improved. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is weak. The production of urea remains at a high level, and upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Although production may decline slightly next week due to planned maintenance, future supply - demand remains loose with the release of new production capacity. Coal - based urea profits are acceptable, and cost support is average. The export of urea continues in August, and port inventory has increased slightly. The Indian NFL's urea import tender may boost the international urea market, and export dynamics need continuous attention [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 26, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1737 yuan/ton (- 8). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1710 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu was 1710 yuan/ton (- 10). The basis in Shandong was - 37 yuan/ton (- 2), in Henan was - 27 yuan/ton (+ 8), and in Jiangsu was - 27 yuan/ton (- 2) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 26, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.98% (0.08%). Planned maintenance at companies like Yuntianhua, Henan Xinlianxin, and Shanxi Lu'an next week may lead to a slight decline in production, but new capacity will be released [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 170 yuan/ton (- 10). The coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and cost support is average [1][2] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - The export profit was 1288 yuan/ton (+ 18). The Indian NFL has issued a urea import tender, which will boost the international urea market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rates and Orders - As of August 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.84% (- 2.64%), and that of melamine was 46.60% (- 3.22%). The number of advance order days for urea enterprises was 6.06 days (- 0.23). Industrial demand is weak [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 26, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 102.39 million tons (+ 6.65), and the port sample inventory was 50.10 million tons (+ 3.70). Upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year [1]

FICC日报 | 2025-08-27 盘面缩量震荡 市场分析 AI+政策推动。国内方面，国务院发布深入实施"人工智能+"行动意见，明确到2027年，率先实现人工智能与6大重 点领域广泛深度融合，新一代智能终端、智能体等应用普及率超70%，智能经济核心产业规模快速增长；到2030 年，我国人工智能全面赋能高质量发展，新一代智能终端、智能体等应用普及率超90%，智能经济成为我国经济发 展的重要增长极。海外方面，特朗普表示，美国同欧盟、日本、韩国的贸易协议已经完成；他将很快对进口家具 征收"很高"的关税，此项关税将"很快"实施；希望振兴北卡罗来纳州和南卡罗来纳州的家具制造业，他暗示可能征 高达200%的关税，称100%或200%的关税将阻止别国占据在家具行业占据主导地位。 沪指震荡。现货市场，A股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，沪指跌0.39%收于3868.38点，创业板指跌0.75%。行业方面， 板块指数涨跌互现，农林牧渔、美容护理、基础化工行业领涨，医药生物、非银金融、钢铁行业跌幅居前。当日 沪深两市成交金额下降至2.7万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指小幅收涨，纳指涨0.44%报21544.27点。 期指减仓。期货市场， ...

Group 1: Apple Investment Rating - Neutral. The apple market is expected to maintain stable prices in the short term due to low inventory and similar expected production in the new season [3]. Core View - The apple market shows a mixed trend with polarizing prices of early - maturing varieties and a weakening trend in inventory apples. The market should focus on the quality of new - season fruits and the impact of early - maturing apples on inventory apple sales [1][2]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract was 8124 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.21% ) from the previous day. Spot: Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.75 yuan/jin; Shaanxi Luochuan 70 semi - commodity late Fuji was 4.50 yuan/jin [1]. Market Analysis - Apple futures prices fell. The remaining early - maturing Gala apples in the western region had uneven quality and chaotic prices. Inventory apples had a high proportion of large fruits and slow sales. Short - term inventory apples are expected to be stable but weak [2]. Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. With low inventory and little change in expected production, apple prices will likely remain stable in the short term. Monitor the trading of new - season early - maturing apples [3]. Group 2: Red Dates Investment Rating - Neutral. The red date market may see short - term upward movement due to unfalsified production reduction expectations, but high inventory may cause prices to weaken if the reduction is less than expected [7]. Core View - Red date futures prices were flat. The arrival of goods in the sales areas decreased, and the market is sensitive to weather changes in the production areas. There are differences in the expectations for the new - season red date production [4][6]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract was 11410 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Spot: Hebei first - grade grey dates were 9.60 yuan/kg [4]. Market Analysis - Red date futures prices remained the same. The first - crop flowers are turning red and sugaring. The arrival of goods in the sales areas decreased, and the spot price is strong. The market is trading based on production reduction expectations and is sensitive to weather [6]. Strategy - Adopt a neutral stance. The market may be affected by capital sentiment in the short term, but high inventory may lead to price weakness if the production reduction is less than expected [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views - Cotton: The USDA in August significantly adjusted global cotton production and ending stocks, shifting the supply - demand pattern from loose to tight. However, the production adjustments for some countries may not be sufficient, and the realization of the production cut expectation is uncertain. In China, the commercial cotton inventory is at a historical low, and the new cotton is expected to increase in production. The quota policy has a limited impact on the market [2]. - Sugar: The estimated sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region has been lowered, which limits the decline of raw sugar prices. But Brazil is in the peak crushing season, and the northern hemisphere has an increasing production expectation. In China, the import volume is expected to increase, putting pressure on sugar prices [5][6]. - Pulp: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased. There will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half of the year. The port inventory is high, and the demand is weak. The overall pulp market lacks positive drivers [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.14%) from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,235 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,334 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan/ton [1]. - Market Information: As of the week ending August 23, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 60.3%, 11.4 percentage points higher than the previous week but 15.8% slower than the same period last year. As of August 25, India's weekly cotton market volume was 0.8 million tons, a 20% year - on - year decline [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA adjusted the global cotton balance sheet, but the production adjustment for some countries may not be in place, and the realization of the production cut expectation is uncertain. The US cotton balance sheet is expected to improve, supporting international cotton prices [2]. - Domestic: The "anti - involution" is over, and the Sino - US tariff truce is extended. The commercial cotton inventory is at a historical low, supporting cotton prices. The sliding - scale quota policy has limited impact on the market. The new cotton is expected to increase in production, and there will be hedging pressure during the new cotton listing period [2]. Strategy - Be neutral. Pay attention to the peak - season demand. If the demand improves, cotton prices may be strong before the new cotton is listed; otherwise, there will be pressure during the listing period [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,632 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton (-0.98%) from the previous day [4]. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,950 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,860 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - Market Information: Conab predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 sugarcane production would be 668.8 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year decrease. The harvest area increased by 1%, but the yield per unit decreased by 2.1% [4]. Market Analysis - International: The estimated sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region has been lowered, limiting the decline of raw sugar prices. Brazil is in the peak crushing season, and the northern hemisphere has an increasing production expectation, so raw sugar prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. - Domestic: The profit of out - of - quota sugar imports has been high for months, and the import volume in July increased significantly. The import supply in August - September is expected to increase, putting pressure on sugar prices [6]. Strategy - Be neutral. The negative impact of import expectations has been reflected in the market. Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, due to low inventory and late - growing sugarcane, there may be a price increase in the fourth quarter [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,070 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton (-1.29%) from the previous day [7]. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,110 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Information: The import wood pulp spot market had individual price fluctuations. The trading volume of imported softwood pulp did not improve significantly, and the cost was under pressure. Some prices of imported hardwood pulp increased, while the supply and demand of imported natural pulp and chemical mechanical pulp were weak [7]. Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased, and more pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [8]. - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the inventory pressure of global pulp mills is increasing. The domestic demand is weak, the finished paper inventory is high, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited [8]. Strategy - Be neutral. The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and pulp prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. - Arbitrage: A short - position variety among non - ferrous metals. [6] 2. Core View - The current macro sentiment is positive, and non - ferrous commodities show a strong trend. However, the zinc spot market is under pressure from increasing inventory, with a slight expansion of the spot discount. The smelting profit remains high, and the supply pressure persists. The domestic inventory build - up is expected even in the consumption peak season, and if the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure, while the impact of overseas inventory needs attention. [5] 3. Summary by Category Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is - $2.95/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 40 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 65 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,260 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 60 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On August 26, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,355 yuan/ton, closed at 22,270 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 93,174 lots, and the open interest was 108,718 lots. The highest price was 22,395 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,245 yuan/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 26, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 138,500 tons, a change of 5,600 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 65,525 tons, a change of - 2,550 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - **Macro and Spot**: The current macro sentiment is positive, and non - ferrous commodities are strong. In the zinc spot market, due to continuous inventory increase, the spot discount slightly expands, and traders have difficulty maintaining prices, with weak downstream purchasing sentiment. [5] - **Cost**: The import TC is rising, with the general ore quote reaching $110/ton. Smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is increasing. [5] - **Smelting**: With by - product revenue, the industry's smelting profit remains above 1,000 yuan/ton. Zinc price decline has little impact on smelting profit, and smelting enthusiasm remains high, with unchanged current and expected supply - side pressure. [5] - **Consumption**: Even during the consumption peak season, the domestic inventory build - up is expected. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention. [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For the nickel variety, the short - term nickel price will mainly show a volatile trend, being more affected by macro - sentiment. However, the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited [3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, approaching the consumption peak season, trading has warmed up, but the fundamentals have not undergone a fundamental change. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will continue to fluctuate in the near future [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 26, 2025, the main contract 2510 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,310 yuan/ton and closed at 120,370 yuan/ton, a change of 0.08% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 88,775 lots, and the open interest was 109,267 lots. The night session continued the previous day's upward trend, with high - level narrow - range fluctuations and a slight increase at the end. The day session also fluctuated, with the highest at 120,720 yuan/ton and the lowest at 120,120 yuan/ton, and the whole - day amplitude was only 0.5%. Due to the UK bank holiday, LME nickel was closed, and domestic funds dominated the market with relatively stable risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel - ore market was fair, and the prices were generally stable. A 1.3% nickel ore in September had CIF transactions in China and Indonesia at 42. The price of 0.9% low - aluminum nickel ore in China increased slightly due to resource shortages. In the Philippines, mining companies' quotes were firm, and rainfall had little impact on shipping efficiency. New nickel - iron orders were concluded, and iron - plant confidence recovered slightly, but they still held a cautious and price - pressing attitude when purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in September (Phase 1) is expected to drop by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars; the current mainstream domestic trade premium of +24 remains unchanged, and the premium in September (Phase 1) is expected to remain the same [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,086 (- 206.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,148 (- 600) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term nickel price mainly shows a volatile trend. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 26, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 12,860 yuan/ton and closed at 12,840 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 102,727 lots, and the open interest was 133,659 lots. The night session was boosted by macro - sentiment, continued the previous day's rebound, fluctuated narrowly around 12,850 yuan/ton, and closed slightly higher. In the day session, the bulls took profit after being blocked at the 12,900 yuan/ton mark, and the price dropped to around 12,840 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot**: Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the sentiment of spot price quotations warmed up, market inquiries became more active, and the trading situation improved. Approaching the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", coupled with the increase in the tender prices of Qingshan's nickel - iron and chrome - iron, market confidence gradually recovered, and the stainless - steel price generally showed a strong - running pattern. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,125 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,125 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 310 to 460 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 5.00 yuan/nickel point to 934.5 yuan/nickel point the previous day [3]. - **Strategy** - Approaching the consumption peak season, the stainless - steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].