Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, short - term cotton prices may weaken again, but in the long - term, they can be viewed optimistically after seasonal pressure [2] - For sugar, short - term Zhengzhou sugar may rebound slightly following the foreign market, but in the long - term, it should be treated with a bearish mindset [5] - For pulp, the pulp price is expected to continue its low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,465 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton (+0.97%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,552 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,679 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - India's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 5.311 million tons, imports 697,000 tons, consumption 5.338 million tons, and exports 306,000 tons, with the ending inventory remaining at 1.03 million tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, due to the US government shutdown, key data was postponed, increasing market volatility. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose, and the short - term external market is under pressure [1] - Domestically, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, starting the new year with low inventory. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized, limiting the decline of cotton prices [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,428 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.30%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,770 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,740 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [3] - In September 2025, China imported 151,400 tons of syrup and sugar premix, a year - on - year decrease of 135,200 tons [3] Market Analysis - For raw sugar, Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September was higher than expected, suppressing the raw sugar price, but there is support from the ethanol price [5] - For Zhengzhou sugar, the domestic supply is sufficient in the short term, but the new - season production increase may be less than expected, and the downside space is limited [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract yesterday was 5,156 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+0.66%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have limited impact on the overall supply, and domestic port inventories remain high [7] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US and insufficient domestic demand are suppressing pulp prices, and downstream paper mills' procurement is cautious [7]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-21 现货成交一般，多晶硅盘面回调 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-10-20，工业硅期货价格震荡运行，主力合约2511开于8500元/吨，最后收于8565元/吨，较前一日结算变化（75） 元/吨，变化（0.88）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓114236手，2025-10-20仓单总数为49303手，较前一日变化-811 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9300-9400（0）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价小幅持稳。97硅价格小幅持稳。 海关数据显示，出口方面：2025年9月工业硅出口量在7.02万吨，环比减少8%同比增加8%。2025年1-9月份工业硅 累计出口量在56.16万吨，同比增加2%。进口方面：2025年9月中国金属硅进口量在0.19万吨。2025年1-9月累计进 口量在0.86万吨，同比减少64%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价111 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The smooth soybean sowing in South America, which has reached 24%, along with the potential for further growth in South American planting areas, exerts some pressure on the market. However, the low rapeseed inventory in domestic oil mills and the low operating rate, combined with the relatively concentrated ownership of rapeseed oil inventory and strong overall basis, lead to the oils' prices mainly in a fluctuating state [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,318.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +10 yuan and a幅度 of +0.11% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,298.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +42.00 yuan and a幅度 of +0.51% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,918.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +57.00 yuan and a幅度 of +0.58% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,290.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +80.00 yuan and a幅度 of +0.87%, and the spot basis was P01 + -28.00, with a环比 change of +70.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,510.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +50.00 yuan/ton and a幅度 of +0.59%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 212.00, with a环比 change of +8.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,230.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +60.00 yuan and a幅度 of +0.59%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 312.00, with a环比 change of +3.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of soybeans in Brazil for the 2025/26 season had reached 24% [2] - The export volume of palm oil from Malaysia from October 1 - 20 was 1,044,784 tons, a 3.4% increase compared to the same period last month [2] - In September this year, China did not import soybeans from the United States, the first time since November 2018 that China's monthly soybean imports from the US dropped to zero. China is increasing its soybean purchases from South American countries to replace US soybeans [2] - As of October 17, 2025 (week 42), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 575,700 tons, an increase of 28,100 tons from last week, a增幅 of 5.13%, and an increase of 59,800 tons compared to 515,900 tons last year, a增幅 of 11.59% [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) was 508 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was 518 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - China's economic growth slowed in September, with a widening gap between domestic and external demand. Domestic economic data in August showed signs of weakness, while exports in September were resilient. The M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. Amid increasing external tariff pressure, China has introduced frequent growth - stabilizing policies [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified, and there is a risk of tariff escalation before the APEC Summit in South Korea from October 28th to November 1st [2] - Attention should be paid to the duration of the US government shutdown, as the market has not fully priced in the severity of the issue [3] - In the commodity market, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach in the near term. Each commodity sector has its own characteristics and risks [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the gap between strong expectations and weak reality has widened. In August, economic data showed "slow industry, weak investment, and tepid consumption." In September, exports were resilient, and the M2 - M1 gap hit a new low for the year. External tariff pressure increased, and China introduced growth - stabilizing policies. The Third Quarter GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% for the first three quarters. Industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year - on - year, while social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 3%. Fixed - asset investment continued to decline [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have escalated. The delay in Sino - US tariff implementation will expire on November 10th. The US has taken a series of measures such as adding Chinese enterprises to the entity list and imposing tariffs on imports, and China has responded with counter - measures. There is a risk of tariff escalation before the APEC Summit in South Korea [2] - The US government shutdown issue persists. The Republican temporary appropriation bill failed to advance in the Senate, and economic data releases have been delayed. The market has not fully priced in the severity of the shutdown [3] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations; the non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints but is boosted by global easing expectations; the energy sector has a relatively loose medium - term supply; the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention; agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations but need fundamental signals; precious metals have short - term price volatility risks but long - term buying opportunities [4] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Key News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing. The central bank kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged. China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and 4.8% in the third quarter. Social consumer goods retail总额 in September increased by 3% year - on - year. The national urban survey unemployment rate in September was 5.2%. The stock market showed mixed trends, with coal and gas sectors rising and precious metals sector falling. Sino - US officials agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations soon. The US will impose tariffs on trucks and buses starting from November 1st. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party reached an agreement on coalition government [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - PVC exports remain resilient, with September exports reaching 346,400 tons, a 21.94% month - on - month increase and a 24.53% year - on - year increase. Cumulative exports are 2.9215 million tons, a 50.58% year - on - year increase. However, PVC exports of products may be affected by India's anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers [3] - The PVC futures price is under pressure due to high inventory of futures warrants, but it may rebound with macro - sentiment after a decline. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies and the National Politburo meeting [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with both increases and decreases. The supply is expected to increase slightly, while the demand side has mixed signals. The cost support exists due to the increase in Shandong's electricity price in October and the rise in liquid chlorine price [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,702 yuan/ton (+14). The East China basis is - 72 yuan/ton (-14), and the South China basis is - 2 yuan/ton (-14) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quotation is 4,630 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method quotation is 4,700 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The blue carbon price is 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 12 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method gross profit is - 713 yuan/ton (-91), the PVC ethylene method gross profit is - 553 yuan/ton (-14), and the PVC export profit is - 0.6 dollars/ton (-3.8) [1] - Inventory and start - up: The PVC in - plant inventory is 360,000 tons (-23,000), the PVC social inventory is 556,000 tons (-1,000), the PVC calcium carbide method start - up rate is 74.73% (-7.03%), the PVC ethylene method start - up rate is 76.10% (-2.44%), and the PVC start - up rate is 75.14% (-5.66%) [1] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 556,000 tons (-28,000) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,380 yuan/ton (+36), and the Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda basis is 183 yuan/ton (-67) [1] - Spot price: The Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda quotation is 820 yuan/ton (-10), and the Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda quotation is 1,280 yuan/ton (-10) [1] - Upstream production profit: The Shandong caustic soda single - variety profit is 1,571 yuan/ton (-31), the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 988.3 yuan/ton (+48.8), the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) is 226.28 yuan/ton (-31.25), and the Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) is 1,241.75 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Inventory and start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 403,300 tons (-17,900), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 24,500 tons (+3,400), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 81.40% (-2.90%) [2] - Downstream start - up: The alumina start - up rate is 86.22% (-0.10%), the East China printing and dyeing start - up rate is 66.76% (+0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 88.61% (-1.02%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Some maintenance enterprises have resumed, and new production capacities are gradually being put into production. The supply is abundant [3] - Demand: The downstream start - up has generally returned to the pre - holiday level, and the point - price transactions have improved when the price falls. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the absolute value of inventory is still high [3] - Export: The export shows resilience, but the export of PVC products may be affected by India's anti - dumping investigation [3] - Futures: The futures warrants are at a high level, and the hedging pressure on the market persists [3] Caustic Soda - Supply: New production capacities have been put into production, and the supply is expected to increase slightly as many maintenance enterprises have resumed [3] - Demand: The Shandong alumina orders are stable, but the Henan large - scale alumina plant's load reduction has increased the expectation of alumina plant production cuts. Non - aluminum end start - up continues to rise, with rigid demand for procurement [3] - Inventory: The national liquid caustic soda inventory decreased last week, and the Shandong inventory decreased due to increased maintenance and procurement by Hebei alumina plants [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - delivery spread: Sell V01 and buy V05 when the spread is high - Inter - commodity spread: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation - Inter - delivery spread: Wait and see - Inter - commodity spread: None [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [3][8] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For apples, currently, the late Fuji apples are sporadically on the market. Affected by the weather, it's difficult to organize a large quantity of red apples. The acquisition period may be shortened. It's expected that the price of high - quality apples will remain stable and firm, with a significant price gap between high - quality and general - quality apples [3] - For red dates, if the yield and quality fall short of expectations, the upward trend of red dates may continue. Otherwise, the futures price of red dates will face a situation of limited upward movement and sufficient downward support, showing a volatile pattern [8] Group 3: Summary According to the Apple - Related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8865 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton or 2.78% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.75 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 1365, down 332 from the previous day. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 565, down 240 from the previous day [1] - Market situation: The coloring progress of late Fuji is accelerating, and the supply in the production areas is increasing. There is a polarized market, with the price of high - quality goods remaining stable and firm. Different production areas have different price ranges due to quality differences, and many merchants in Shandong are flowing to the western and Liaoning production areas [1][2] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price rose significantly. The coloring of late Fuji in the spot production areas is accelerating, and the supply is increasing. The price of high - quality goods is stable and firm. Last week, the supply of new - season late Fuji in the western production areas increased, and the price polarization was obvious. The price of high - quality goods is strong, while the price of general - quality goods is chaotic. The Shandong production area is still waiting for coloring, and merchants are flowing to other areas. This week, the supply of late Fuji in the eastern and western regions is increasing, and the price polarization is obvious. If there is a rush to buy high - quality goods, the price will remain stable and firm, while the price of general - quality goods may fall due to increased supply [2] Strategy - The strategy for apples is neutral. It is expected that the price of high - quality apples will remain stable and firm, with obvious price polarization [3] Group 4: Summary According to the Red - Date - Related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 11385 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 0.31% from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 was - 1785, up 35 from the previous day [4] - Market situation: The new - season red dates in the Xinjiang main production area are about to be harvested, and the harvest time may be about one week earlier than last year. Merchants from the inland areas are going to the production area for the new season. The tree - ordering in the Hotan area is coming to an end, and the orchard - ordering in the Aksu, Qiemo, and Alar areas is progressing rapidly. The new prices are not yet mainstream. The supply in the Hebei sales area has increased slightly, and downstream merchants are waiting and seeing the quality and price of the new season and making purchases as needed. It is expected that the spot price will remain stable in the short term [5][6] Market Analysis - The red date futures price showed a volatile downward trend yesterday. The new - season red dates in the Xinjiang main production area may be harvested one week earlier, and inland merchants are preparing for acquisition. The tree - ordering in Hotan is at the end, and orchard - ordering in other areas is fast. The new prices are not yet mainstream. The weather is favorable for improving the quality of red dates, which is better than last year. Last week, the trading atmosphere in the sales - area spot market was average, with downstream rigid - demand purchases as the main form. The spot price rose slightly, and the trading was a bit light. Affected by the preparation for the new season, some merchants sold their inventories to recover funds, and the inventory reduction of 36 sample points accelerated, but the overall inventory pressure still exists, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The new - season jujube trees have the problem of over - overdraft, and a reduction in production is a normal expectation. It is estimated that the new - season yield is between 56 - 620,000 tons [7] Strategy - The strategy for red dates is neutral. If the yield and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of red dates may continue. Otherwise, the futures price of red dates will be in a volatile pattern. The new - season red dates in the main production area have not been harvested in a concentrated manner. It is expected that the harvesting work will start after the Frost's Descent. Attention should be paid to the acquisition progress and price changes [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The crude oil end still exerts pressure, and the fuel oil market shows a differentiated structure. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stronger than the low - sulfur fuel oil market, but both face certain uncertainties and resistance [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 0.08% at 2,646 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.55% at 3,079 yuan/ton [1]. - Due to the loosening fundamentals and potential tariff frictions, the crude oil price has been weak recently, suppressing the overall energy sector. There are many uncertainties in the macro and geopolitical aspects, so caution is needed regarding the short - term trend of the crude oil end [1]. - In terms of fuel oil fundamentals, there is a differentiation with high - sulfur fuel oil being stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil. The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is relatively firm. Russia's supply is restricted, and the continuous drone attacks in Ukraine have led to more unexpected refinery overhauls. New sanctions from the UK on October 15 and the US's intensified sanctions on Iran have also affected their oil trade. However, the upward drivers of the high - sulfur oil market are also limited based on current valuation and supply - demand expectations [1]. - The low - sulfur fuel oil market has been weak. Supply from Africa, South America, etc. has increased, and the market supply is abundant. In the context of intensified trade disputes, the shipping and marine fuel demand face potential risks, and the actual marine fuel consumption has been weak. The latest September sales volume in Singapore decreased by 4% month - on - month. The low - sulfur fuel oil downstream demand is more concentrated and more sensitive to tariff frictions. With the restart of Dangote refinery's RFCC unit, the local supply pressure is expected to ease [2]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, mainly on short - term wait - and - see [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, mainly on short - term wait - and - see [3]. - Cross - variety: No recommended strategy [3]. - Cross - period: No recommended strategy [3]. - Spot - futures: No recommended strategy [3]. - Options: No recommended strategy [3].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market trading volume is weak, and steel prices are fluctuating downward. Glass and soda ash are facing supply - demand contradictions and are showing a weak downward trend. Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are expected to fluctuate, with silicon manganese enterprises facing increased losses and silicon iron enterprises having low production - increasing motivation [1][3]. Market Analysis Summary Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Futures fluctuated weakly with active trading yesterday. Spot market's downstream purchasing sentiment was cautious, and the trading center shifted down. Supply is on a low - rising trend, middle - stream trade inventory is high, speculative demand is weakening, and destocking pressure is increasing. With the end of the consumption peak season approaching and the possibility of some production lines resuming, demand is expected to further weaken [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Futures fluctuated with active trading yesterday. Spot market trading was average, downstream purchasing sentiment was cautious, and low - price just - in - time demand transactions were the main type. Supply - demand contradictions remain, supply is at a high level with growth expectations, demand shows resilience, and destocking pressure persists throughout the year [1]. Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Silicon Manganese**: Futures rose in a fluctuating manner yesterday. Spot market performed okay, with strong market waiting sentiment at the beginning of the week. Northern market price was 5630 - 5680 yuan/ton, and southern market price was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. Enterprises' losses are intensifying, production is high, demand has weakened with the decline of hot metal, and prices are expected to fluctuate and follow the sector [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: Futures fluctuated yesterday. Spot prices were stable. Ningxia 72 - grade silicon iron natural block was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, 72 - grade silicon iron standard block was 5250 - 5300 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade silicon iron was 5800 yuan/ton. Enterprises' production has slightly decreased, losses continue, production - increasing motivation is insufficient, downstream demand is weakening, and prices are expected to follow the sector [3]. Strategy Summary - **Glass**: Fluctuate weakly [2] - **Soda Ash**: Fluctuate weakly [2] - **Silicon Manganese**: Fluctuate [4] - **Silicon Iron**: Fluctuate [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Due to high inventory and persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [3] - With increasing production schedules and slower - than - expected demand recovery, stainless steel prices are forecasted to stay in a weak oscillation, but recent policy guidance from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and the results of China - US trade talks need to be observed [5] Market Analysis of Nickel Market Data - On October 20, 2025, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,830 yuan/ton and closed at 120,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.52% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 68,844 (- 7,491) lots, and the open interest was 58,658 (- 1,803) lots [1] Influence of Macro Data - China's macro data for the first three quarters showed that the GDP in Q3 was 3.545 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 4.8% (previous value: 5.2%), and other data indicated a situation of "strong supply and weak demand", causing Shanghai nickel prices to oscillate weakly [1] Nickel Ore Situation - The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market was fair, and prices remained stable. The Eramen mine in the Philippines launched a new tender. In the Philippines, the shipping volume from the Surigao mining area decreased, while northern mines started to load and ship. Downstream iron plants, with reduced profits, were cautious in purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the supply of the nickel ore market remained abundant. The domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium was + 26, with a premium range of + 25 - 27. Due to the approaching rainy season, Indonesian factories had low enthusiasm for raw material procurement despite production pressure [1] Spot Market - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was fair, and the spot premiums of each brand remained stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,868 (- 174) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 250,476 (- 54) tons [2] Strategy for Nickel - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [3] Market Analysis of Stainless Steel Market Data - On October 20, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,620 yuan/ton and closed at 12,595 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 124,780 (+ 7,866) lots, and the open interest was 198,194 (- 4,171) lots [3] Influence of Macro Data - The real estate investment growth rate widened by 1 percentage point to - 13.9%, and the overall industry was still at the bottom - building stage. The recovery of stainless steel demand remained a long - term task [3] Spot Market - The market trading continued the light situation of the previous week, and prices remained basically stable. Under the pressure of sales, there were occasional lower quotes. The price of stainless steel in the Wuxi market was 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 390 - 690 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 938.0 yuan/nickel point [3] Strategy for Stainless Steel - Unilateral: Neutral - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - At the beginning of the week, the inland methanol price continued to decline. The market focus at the port is still on the issue of Iranian methanol vessels. The port's basis has risen rapidly this week, and the actual port inventory pressure persists. The coal - based methanol operating rate inland has bottomed out and is expected to further increase by the end of October, with inland inventory gradually rebuilding from a low level. Traditional downstream industries have low operating rates, resulting in increased supply and decreased demand, leading to a further decline in inland prices [1][3] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple charts related to methanol basis including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 futures contracts [6][7][21] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Charts show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and various import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [6][25][33] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - There are charts about methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated) [6][34][35] 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides charts on regional price differences like the spread between northern Shandong and northwest, Taicang and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and southern Shandong, etc [6][38][47] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts display the production gross margins of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][51][54] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Go long on the spread between MA2601 and MA2605 when it is low - Cross - variety: Shorten the spread between PP01 and 3MA01 when it is high [4]