股指期权日报 | 2025-10-22 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.61，环比变动为-0.15；持仓量PCR报0.88，环比变动为+0.09； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.66，环比变动为-0.33；持仓量PCR报1.06，环比变动为+0.08； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.84，环比变动为-0.41；持仓量PCR报1.18，环比变动为+0.09 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报1.02 ，环比变动为-0.22；持仓量PCR报1.54；环比变动为+0.32； 创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报0.61，环比变动为-0.31 ；持仓量PCR报1.13，环比变动为+0.16； 上证50股指期权成交额PCR报0.32，环比变动为-0.10；持仓量PCR报0.70，环比变动为+0.00； 沪深300股指期权成交额PCR报0.48 ，环比变动为-0.10；持仓量PCR报0.77，环比变动为+0.05； 中证1000股指期权成交额PCR报0.78，环比变动为-0.31；持仓量PCR报0.94，环比变动为+0.06。 股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 期权成交量 期权 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic economic expectations are strong but the reality is weak. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, and in September, exports were resilient. The M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. To address external pressure, China has proposed policies to stabilize growth, with new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. The GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in September slowed to 3% compared to August, while the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year. The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities declined month - on - month in September [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified. As the extension of Sino - US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken multiple measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with measures like export controls on rare earth technology and imposing special port fees on US ships. The two sides agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2] - The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data. The US 9 - month Markit manufacturing and service PMI decreased slightly. The market has underestimated the severity of the shutdown, and attention should be paid to its development [3] - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is affected by downstream demand expectations, the non - ferrous sector is constrained by long - term supply, the energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium term, the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention, agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations, and short - term risks in precious metals should be guarded against [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic economic situation: In August, China's economic data weakened, with characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption". In September, exports were resilient, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. The GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in September slowed to 3% compared to August, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year. Housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities declined month - on - month in September. The government has proposed policies to stabilize growth, with new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. On October 21, the A - share market strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3900 points and the ChiNext Index rising more than 3%. The AI computing hardware sector soared, while sectors such as coal, gas, and precious metals declined [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions: As the extension of Sino - US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken multiple measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with measures like export controls on rare earth technology and imposing special port fees on US ships. The two sides agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2] - US government shutdown: On October 15, the US Republican Party's temporary appropriation bill failed to advance in the Senate. The release of multiple economic data has been delayed. The US 9 - month Markit manufacturing and service PMI decreased slightly. The market has underestimated the severity of the shutdown, and attention should be paid to its development [3] Commodity Market - Overall strategy: It is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The volatility of previously bullish sectors is high, and the risk of price fluctuations is large [4] - Black sector: Still affected by downstream demand expectations, attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation [4] - Non - ferrous sector: Long - term supply constraints remain unrelieved, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations recently [4] - Energy sector: The medium - term supply is considered relatively loose. OPEC + announced that eight oil - producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November [4] - Chemical sector: The "anti - involution" space of products such as methanol, caustic soda, and urea is worthy of attention [4] - Agricultural products: Driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term, but need to wait for fundamental signals and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiations [4] - Precious metals: The market has overreacted in the short term, and the lease rates of gold and silver are relatively high. Short - term price fluctuations should be guarded against, and opportunities to buy on dips can be grasped in the long term [4] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - Stock market: On October 21, the market strengthened throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3900 points and the ChiNext Index rising more than 3%. More stocks rose than fell, with over 4,600 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rising, and the trading volume reached 1.89 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.06%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.02% [6] - International news: On October 21, the Japanese cabinet led by Ishiba Shigeru resigned, and Takamachi Sanae was elected as the new prime minister. European leaders signed a joint statement supporting an immediate cease - fire and peace talks, while the Russian foreign minister said the "immediate cease - fire" plan violated previous agreements [3][6] - Commodity news: On October 21, spot gold fell below $4,200 per ounce, with an intraday decline of 3.8%, the largest decline in four years [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations [4]. - For the stainless - steel market, with weak demand growth, inventory accumulation, and weakening cost support, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel (2511) opened at 121,000 yuan/ton and closed at 121,180 yuan/ton, a 0.36% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 60,391 (- 8,453) lots, and the open interest was 50,388 (+ 2,520) lots. The main contract was about to change, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and China's strong economic resilience in Q3 were the main reasons for the strong performance of the metal sector [2]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel - ore market was fair, and prices remained stable. The 1.4% nickel - ore tender of the Philippines' Eramen mine was settled at CIF43. In the Philippines, the shipping volume from the Surigao mining area was decreasing, and northern mines were mostly tendering for shipment. Downstream iron plants' profits were affected, and they maintained cautious procurement. In Indonesia, the supply of the nickel - ore market remained in a loose pattern. The domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium was + 26, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 27. Due to the approaching rainy season in local mining areas and production preparations for next year, Indonesian factories started raw - material procurement [3]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,900 yuan/ton, a 500 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of each brand were basically stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium remained unchanged at 2,450 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel - bean premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 27,026 (+ 158) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 250,476 (0) tons [3]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 21, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel (2512) opened at 12,600 yuan/ton and closed at 12,665 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 126,078 (+ 1,298) lots, and the open interest was 188,332 (- 4,171) lots. Driven by the strength of Shanghai nickel and the metal sector, the main contract of stainless steel showed a volatile and stronger trend. The price center shifted slightly upward compared with the previous few trading days but did not break through the key resistance level. The trading volume increased moderately compared with the previous day, but short - term capital inflow was limited, and the rebound lacked real momentum [4]. - **Spot**: Downstream inquiries increased, and quotes rose slightly, but actual transactions were mainly for low - priced goods, and the overall trading situation improved slightly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was between 355 and 655 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 936.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the price fluctuations of upstream non - ferrous metals and energy, and also presents the latest developments in the production and service industries, as well as the current situation of different industrial chains [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Middle - level Event Overview Production Industry - The Guangdong Provincial People's Government Office issued the "Action Plan for High - quality Development of the Manufacturing Industry Empowered by Artificial Intelligence in Guangdong Province (2025 - 2027)", supporting enterprises to use various intelligent computing resources for industrial model development, promoting the construction of edge data centers, and emphasizing core software research and the synergy between AI and industrial Internet [1]. Service Industry - The Civil Aviation Administration announced the winter - spring flight schedule for 2025, starting from October 26, with domestic flight times contracting for two consecutive seasons, with a 1.0% decline in 2024 and a 1.8% decline in 2025. From October 15, global shipping giants collectively raised prices, with freight rates on multiple routes increasing by 600 - 2000 US dollars per container [1]. 2. Industry Overview Upstream - Non - ferrous metals: Gold prices have declined. Energy: International oil prices have continued to fall. Chemicals: PTA prices have slightly decreased [2]. Middle - stream - Chemicals: PX operating rate is at a high level. Energy: Power plant coal consumption is at a low level [2][3]. Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have declined. Services: The number of domestic flights has increased [4]. 3. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On October 21, the spot price of corn was 2180.0 yuan/ton (- 0.26% year - on - year), eggs were 6.0 yuan/kg (1.69% year - on - year), palm oil was 9306.0 yuan/ton (- 0.60% year - on - year), cotton was 14741.8 yuan/ton (0.35% year - on - year), and the average wholesale price of pork was 17.7 yuan/kg (- 2.80% year - on - year) [39]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On October 21, the spot price of copper was 85788.3 yuan/ton (- 0.25% year - on - year), zinc was 21922.0 yuan/ton (- 1.24% year - on - year), aluminum was 20943.3 yuan/ton (0.14% year - on - year), nickel was 122850.0 yuan/ton (0.23% year - on - year), and another type of aluminum was 17075.0 yuan/ton (0.63% year - on - year) [39]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On October 20, the spot price of rebar was 3131.8 yuan/ton (- 0.29% year - on - year), iron ore was 792.9 yuan/ton (- 1.26% year - on - year), and wire rod was 3295.0 yuan/ton (- 0.68% year - on - year) [39]. - **Non - Metals**: On October 21, the spot price of glass was 14.6 yuan/square meter (- 6.82% year - on - year), natural rubber was 14516.7 yuan/ton (0.58% year - on - year), and the China Plastics City Price Index was 779.6 (- 0.75% year - on - year) [39]. - **Energy**: On October 21, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 57.0 US dollars/barrel (- 4.15% year - on - year), Brent crude oil was 61.0 US dollars/barrel (- 3.65% year - on - year), liquefied natural gas was 3820.0 yuan/ton (2.85% year - on - year), and coal was 797.0 yuan/ton (0.76% year - on - year) [39]. - **Chemicals**: On October 21, the spot price of PTA was 4369.8 yuan/ton (- 2.02% year - on - year), polyethylene was 7076.7 yuan/ton (- 0.79% year - on - year), urea was 1570.0 yuan/ton (- 0.63% year - on - year), and soda ash was 1203.6 yuan/ton (- 1.23% year - on - year) [39]. - **Real Estate**: On October 21, the national cement price index was 133.7 (- 0.80% year - on - year), the building materials composite index was 111.5 (- 0.60% year - on - year), and the national concrete price index was 91.2 (- 0.18% year - on - year) [39].

燃料油日报 | 2025-10-22 Dangote装置重启，低硫油局部供应压力缓和 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.11%，报2647元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.42%，报3072 元/吨。 在基本面、宏观面、地缘政策等多方利空因素的影响下，原油价格近期连续走低，对整体能源板块形成压制。考 虑到接下来处于中美、俄乌谈判的关键窗口期，宏观不确定性仍存，建议保持谨慎。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前处于高硫强于低硫的分化格局。就高硫燃料油而言，结构存在一定支撑，但发电 端需求旺季已经结束，市场多空因素交织，基于当前估值的上行驱动或有限。 低硫燃料油方面，近期基本面表现较为疲软。一方面，来自非洲、南美等地的供应有所增加，市场供应较为充裕； 另一方面，在贸易争端加剧的背景下，航运与船燃端需求面临潜在风险。相较于高硫燃料油，低硫燃料油下游需 求更为集中，对关税摩擦反应或更为敏感。然而，根据IIR消息，Dangote炼厂RFCC装置已经于10月19日重启，目 前开工率来到60%左右。参考船期数据，尼日利亚10月低硫燃料油发货量预计在34万吨，环比减少19万吨，如果 RFCC装置稳定运行， ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-22 需求端难有明显改观 铜价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-10-21，沪铜主力合约开于 85220元/吨，收于 85400元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.02%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 85300元/吨，收于 85020 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.44%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货报价平水至升水100元/吨，均价升水50元，较前日下跌10元，电铜价格区间 85560~85900元/吨。日间盘面先抑后扬，主力合约在85480-85820元/吨间波动，跨月价差维持Contango结构，进口 亏损约800元/吨。市场采销情绪分化，到货增多推动销售情绪上升，而高铜价抑制采购意愿，两地情绪指数分别为 3.14和3.02。现货成交重心下移，平水铜多围绕平水成交，好铜升水亦收窄。预计今日高铜价下需求难有改善，现 货升水仍将承压。 重要资讯汇总： 地缘方面，欧洲领导人发表联合声明，支持通过谈判推动俄乌停火；声明表示，各方一致支持争取公正而持久的 和平，并赞同美国总统特朗普提出的立即停火、以当前接触线作为谈判起点的主张；声明 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-22 锌海外升水进一步走强 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为230.29美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日70元/吨至21940元/吨，SMM上海 锌现货升贴水-50元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日90元/吨至21910元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-95元/吨；天津 锌现货价较前一交易日70元/吨至21940元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-50元/吨。 策略 单边：谨慎偏多。 套利：中性。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 期货方面：2025-10-21沪锌主力合约开于21915元/吨，收于21970元/吨，较前一交易日85元/吨，全天交易日成交 108521手，全天交易日持仓130442手，日内价格最高点达到22045元/吨，最低点达到21875元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-10-21，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为16.53万吨，较上期变化0.25万吨。截止2025-10-21，LME 锌库存为37275吨，较上一交易日变化-50吨。 市场分析 海 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-10-22 氯碱震荡，关注宏观情绪 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4699元/吨（-3）；华东基差-69元/吨（+3）;华南基差1元/吨（+3）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4630元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4700元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格690元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润-12元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-713元/吨（-91）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-553元/吨（-14）；PVC出口利润-0.8美元/吨（-0.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存36.0万吨（-2.3）；PVC社会库存55.6万吨（-0.1）；PVC电石法开工率74.73%（-7.03%）； PVC乙烯法开工率76.10%（-2.44%）；PVC开工率75.14%（-5.66%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量55.6万吨（-2.8）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2375元/吨（-5）；山东32%液碱基差188元/吨（+5）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价820元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1280元/吨（+ ...

FICC日报 | 2025-10-22 市场分析 特朗普或将访华。宏观方面，商务部召开政策解读专场外资企业圆桌会，170余家外资企业及在华外国商协会代表 参会。商务部副部长兼国际贸易谈判副代表凌激强调，中方对相关物项实施出口管制是坚定维护世界和平和地区 安全稳定、履行防扩散国际义务的负责任之举，同时依法审批合规贸易，维护全球产业链供应链稳定。特朗普称 将于明年早些时候访华。外交部发言人郭嘉昆对此回应称，元首外交对中美关系发挥着不可替代的战略引领作用， 中美两国元首保持着密切的沟通和交往。关于提到的具体问题，目前没有可以提供的信息。 指数上涨。现货市场，A股三大指数上涨，沪指涨1.36%收于3916.33点，创业板指涨3.02%。行业方面，板块指数 涨多跌少，通信、电子、建筑装饰行业领涨，仅煤炭行业收跌。当日沪深两市成交金额约为1.8万亿元。海外方面， 美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.47%报46924.74点。 期指增仓。期货市场，基差方面，IC、IM基差回升。成交持仓方面，股指期货成交量和持仓量同步增加。 策略 近期市场交投维持缩量态势，板块轮动特征明显，外围消息面扰动，中证500、中证1000指数仍运 ...

全球原油装船量自9月以来大幅增加 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所11月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨30美分，收于每桶57.82美元，涨幅为0.52%；12月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨31美分，收于每桶61.32美元，涨幅为0.51%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.64%，报439元/桶。 2、 周二数据显示，加拿大9月年化通胀率升至2.4%，高于市场预期的2.3%，主要推动因素是汽油价格同比降幅收 窄及食品价格上涨。这是加拿大央行本月下旬议息会议前最关键的经济指标，经济学家将据此研判央行是否会再 次降息。货币市场预计加央行在10月29日降息25个基点的概率超过86%，若如期降息则基准政策利率将降至2.25%。 加拿大统计局称，9月CPI环比上升0.1%，8月为下降0.1%。由于政府取消碳税（去年全年推高油价的主因），汽油 价格一直呈同比下降趋势。但9月降幅小于8月，主因是去年9月全球经济前景黯淡导致汽油价格暴跌7.1%，形成低 基数效应。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 在截至10月19日的四周内，俄罗斯海运原油出口量攀升至29个月新高，逼近2022年俄乌冲突爆发后的最高水 平。机构船舶追踪数据显 ...