Industry Overview Upstream - International crude oil prices are fluctuating at a low level, and PTA prices are falling [2] Midstream - PX operating rate is increasing, and coal consumption of power plants is decreasing [3] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities are picking up, and the number of international flights is declining [4] Zhongguan Event Overview Production Industry - In the first half of 2025, BYD led in terms of revenue and net profit among listed car companies, while GAC Group's data were at the bottom and it turned from profit to loss. Many car companies saw revenue growth, with BYD and Geely hitting record highs, but only BYD maintained profit growth, and its automotive gross margin dropped by two percentage points [1] - The Ministry of Commerce ruled that US optical fiber producers and exporters circumvented anti - dumping measures on non - dispersion - shifted single - mode optical fibers from the US by changing trade patterns [1] Service Industry - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China held a meeting, affirming the achievements since its establishment last year and discussing topics such as financial market operation, government bond issuance management, etc. They believe that the coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies provide support for the economy [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 2302.9 | 0.00% | | | Spot price: Eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/3 | | | | | Spot price: Palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 9492.0 | - 0.77% | | | Spot price: Cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 15460.2 | 0.82% | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/3 | 20.0 | 0.60% | | | Spot price: Copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 80360.0 | 0.97% | | | Spot price: Zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 22220.0 | - 0.20% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 20743.3 | - 0.22% | | | Spot price: Nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 123333.3 | 1.12% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 16825.0 | - 0.07% | | | Spot price: Rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 3154.5 | - 2.67% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price: Iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 782.3 | - 0.92% | | | Spot price: Wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 3322.5 | - 1.99% | | | Spot price: Glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 9/3 | 13.9 | 0.00% | | Non - metals | Spot price: Natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 15050.0 | 0.95% | | | China Plastics City price index | Daily | - | 9/3 | 802.4 | - 0.18% | | Energy | Spot price: WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 9/3 | 65.6 | 3.70% | | | Spot price: Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 9/3 | 69.1 | 2.86% | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 3892.0 | - 1.32% | | | Coal price: Coal | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 782.0 | - 0.13% | | Chemical industry | Spot price: PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 4749.5 | - 3.34% | | | Spot price: Polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 7425.0 | - 0.36% | | | Spot price: Urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 1712.5 | 0.29% | | | Spot price: Soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 1262.5 | - 2.13% | | Real estate | Cement price index: National | Daily | - | 9/3 | 129.3 | - 0.55% | | | Building materials composite index | Daily | Points | 9/3 | 113.1 | - 1.53% | | | Concrete price index: National index | Daily | Points | 9/3 | 92.9 | - 0.14% | [38]

FICC日报 | 2025-09-04 全球债市承压，金价延续强势格局 市场分析 8月海外通胀上升迹象初显。全球7月的经济数据仍有韧性：中国7月官方制造业PMI回落至49.3，非制造业保持扩 张；中国7月按美元计出口同比增长7.2%，高于预期，主要受去年低基数和"抢出口"效应支撑；金融数据中，货币 供给超预期，但融资和贷款数据仍弱；经济数据中，投资数据仍有明显压力，国内月频经济数据仍有压力。国务 院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势，培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资。 中共中央、国务院印发关于推动城市高质量发展的意见。意见提出，发展组团式、网络化的现代化城市群和都市 圈，持续推动城镇老旧小区改造。商务部宣布，将于9月出台扩大服务消费的若干政策措施。中国8月官方制造业 PMI小幅回升至49.4，新订单指数升至49.5，非制造业加速扩张。9月3日上午，纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法 西斯战争胜利80周年大会在北京天安门广场隆重举行。A股市场全天震荡分化，三大指数涨跌互现，个股呈现普跌 态势，黄金股延续强势。近期，股指的IC和IM期货基差有所走阔，关注后续基差变化及风险。美国方面，8月IS ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Market Analysis** - **Macro Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, with a short - term downturn. For major global debtors, the expansion of US fiscal spending means the economic aggregate is entering an expansion cycle, but the expansion rhythm is uncertain. If fiscal spending is faster than economic downward pressure, it is "preventive"; otherwise, the risk of a short - term downward cycle increases [2]. - **Price Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, and price resilience needs to be eliminated. The "inflation - deflation" relationship between the two major global economies depends on the distribution of the production and consumption systems. In the context of the China - US game, the spill - over effect of US fiscal expansion on China will weaken, promoting the establishment of China's domestic "internal - cycle" debt - consumption system. Before the new cycle starts in October, the "inflation - deflation" contradiction may intensify in the short term [2]. - **Policy Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, and there is a policy window period. From the perspective of the US dollar cycle, the liquidity expansion (liabilities) driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle requires corresponding financial market pools (assets). For the US financial sector, the leverage will be released in October, and China's fiscal policy also needs further guidance from the Fourth Plenary Session in October. In September, the Fed's policy easing may face a macro - reality of "lack of assets" or even "asset shocks" [2]. - **Strategy** - **Strategic**: The macro - strategy maintains a positive right - side judgment. Both the US and China have released clear fiscal expansion signals, driving macro - allocation to turn positive. However, the rhythm of policy release is uncertain, causing short - term disturbances. Short - term market adjustments may provide space for medium - term asset allocation [3]. - **Tactical**: In September, maintain a low - risk allocation and hold volatility - hedging positions, actively waiting for the market low point. In the short term, market pressure may continue to flatten the yield curve [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Economic Status: Supply - Driven Improvement in Prosperity - The short - term pressure has eased according to the Huatai Macro Heat Tracking. International trade activities have improved due to tariff relaxation, and short - term production activity repairs have driven the improvement of macro - prosperity. However, the internal consumption demand of major economies is still below the "water level" [7]. Price Factors: Attention to Japan's Inflation Resilience - Prices have stabilized in the short term. The inflation heat value in August was - 0.64, a month - on - month increase of 0.06 percentage points. The US inflation data in August showed certain resilience, but the Fed has downplayed the consideration of inflation in its policy framework, shifting the focus to the labor market. Globally, Japan's inflation resilience is worthy of attention, which may drive its monetary policy to remain relatively tight and put further pressure on Asian currency liquidity [13]. Policy Conditions: Short - Term Pressure May Increase - **External**: US economic policies have shifted from uncertainty to certainty. In September, there is a risk of increased market volatility during the policy transition period. The passage of the "Great Beauty Act" in July means that US fiscal expectations have shifted from contraction to expansion, with uncertainty only in the impact of the spending implementation rhythm on US Treasury supply. The Fed's relatively dovish monetary policy statement in late August and the implementation of a large - bank leverage - increasing policy in late August (effective in October) have increased the demand for US Treasuries in a context of loose Fed liquidity [19]. - **Internal**: The macro - policy has shifted to a self - centered approach, waiting for the implementation of relevant fiscal and monetary policies in October. The second - quarter monetary policy implementation report in mid - August shows that the monetary policy remains loose, with the focus on promoting a reasonable recovery of prices. However, the central bank has strengthened the policy requirement of "preventing capital idling" in the short term, which may cause short - term disturbances to the capital flow. Considering the external policy transition and the resulting increase in market uncertainty, market volatility may rise in September [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - On September 3, 2025, the report presents the trading data of various market sectors including trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - Figures 1 - 6 show the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [4][8] II. Stock Index Plate - On September 3, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 1045.134 billion yuan, a 1.16% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1360.355 billion yuan, a 3.78% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 76.16%. Figures 7 - 12 show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading amount change, and the trend of the net holding ratio of the top 20 institutions of each variety in the stock index plate [1][4][13] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On September 3, 2025, the treasury bond plate had a trading volume of 426.963 billion yuan, a 30.96% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 699.576 billion yuan, a 2.37% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 62.84%. Figures 13 - 18 show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading amount change, and the trend of the net holding ratio of the top 20 institutions of each variety in the treasury bond plate [1][4][18] IV. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On September 3, 2025, the base metal plate had a trading volume of 334.779 billion yuan, a 7.60% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 509.859 billion yuan, a 1.59% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 72.00%. The precious metal plate had a trading volume of 504.543 billion yuan, a 25.87% increase; the holding amount was 484.377 billion yuan, a 2.37% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 119.58%. Figures 19 - 24 show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading amount change rate, and the trend of the net holding ratio of the top 20 institutions of each variety in the metal plate [1][4][29] V. Energy and Chemical Plate - On September 3, 2025, the energy and chemical plate had a trading volume of 410.311 billion yuan, a 9.88% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 435.298 billion yuan, a 0.52% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 72.82%. Figures 25 - 30 show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading amount change rate, and the trend of the net holding ratio of the top 20 institutions of each main variety in the energy and chemical plate [1][4][41] VI. Agricultural Products Plate - On September 3, 2025, the agricultural products plate had a trading volume of 298.340 billion yuan, a 3.71% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 542.954 billion yuan, a 0.54% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 50.40%. Figures 31 - 36 show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading amount change rate, and the trend of the net holding ratio of the top 20 institutions of each main variety in the agricultural products plate [1][4][50] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On September 3, 2025, the black building materials plate had a trading volume of 219.117 billion yuan, a 3.33% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 367.196 billion yuan, a 1.37% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 54.22%. Figures 37 - 42 show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading amount change rate, and the trend of the net holding ratio of the top 20 institutions of each variety in the black building materials plate [2][4][59]

期权VIX 股指期权日报 | 2025-09-04 上证50ETF期权VIX报21.04%，环比变动为-1.63%； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）VIX报20.99%,环比变动为-0.84%； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）VIX报26.28%，环比变动为-0.56%； 深证100ETF期权VIX报27.49%，环比变动为+0.01%； 创业板ETF期权VIX报38.10%，环比变动为-0.10%； 上证50股指期权VIX报22.06%，环比变动为-0.85%； 沪深300股指期权VIX报22.11%，环比变动为-0.82%； 中证1000股指期权VIX报27.53%，环比变动为-1.14%。 股指期权日报 2025-09-03，上证50ETF期权成交量为137.70万张；沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交量为159.28万张； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交量为243.88万张；深证100ETF期权成交量为23.84万张； 创业板ETF期权成交量为261.77万张；上证50股指期权成交量为6.84万张； 沪深300股指期权成交量为19.09万张；中证1000期权总成交量为37.86万张。 期权PCR 上证50 ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-09-04 股债跷跷板下，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依 规治理企业无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引；2025年8月1日， 财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的 利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直 至到期。（2）通胀：7月CPI同比持平。 资金面：（3）财政：2025年7月金融数据显示，M1、M2同比增速分别回升至5.6%和8.8%，剪刀差收窄至3.2%，表 明流动性充裕、企业活期资金活跃度提升，但信贷派生效率偏弱，居民与企业中长期贷款持续收缩，投资和消费 需求不足。社融存量同比仅9%，结构上主要依赖政府债券发行加杠杆托底，企业中长期融资需求依然低迷，大量 资金流向非银机构。利率品市场呈现政府债供给显著增加、机构被动增配的格局，后续走势取决于实体融资需求 修复及财政发行节奏。（4）央行：2025-09-03，央行 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-09-04 尿素小幅累库，行情短期僵持 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-03，尿素主力收盘1714元/吨（-32）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1720 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1710元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1720元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-4 元/吨（+32）；河南基差：6元/吨（+32）；江苏基差：6元/吨（+32）；尿素生产利润180元/吨（+0），出口利润1182 元/吨（-10）。 供应端：截至2025-09-03，企业产能利用率81.70%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为109.50 万吨（+0.92），港口样本 库存量为59.40 万吨（+9.30）。 需求端：截至2025-09-03，复合肥产能利用率39.22%（-1.62%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.50%（+11.90%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.41日（+0.35）。 近期厂家降价吸单，价格跌至前低成交有好转，但持续性不强，市场等待印标量价结果。目前部分地区农业秋季 肥逐渐开始，工业需求复合肥、板厂等开工受阅兵影响下降，逢低采买，工业需求偏弱。尿素 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-09-04 苹果产区降雨增多，红枣供需弱平衡 苹果观点 产区天气情况、货源质量问题、销区走货情况 红枣观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约8332元/吨，较前一日变动-57元/吨，幅度-0.68%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.75元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10-832，较前一日变动+57；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1268，较前一日变动+57。 近期市场资讯，陕西早熟富士大面积上色中，渭南、洛川早熟富士少量上市交易，价格高于去年同期，目前红货 好货有限，客商采购积极性尚可。山东产区奶油红将军陆续交易，整体量不大，客商采购积极性尚可。苹果库存 富士行情维持稳淡，山东产区客商拿货积极性一般，成交氛围不旺，部分果农及持货商开始让价出售。陕西白水 产区早熟富士70#起步好货3.8-4.3元/斤，一般货源价格3-4元/斤，价格不等，以质论价为主。 山东栖霞产区果农三 级2.0-2.5元/斤，果农80#以上统货2.3-3.0元/斤，80#一二级条纹3.3 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-09-04 出栏积极性提升，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约13550元/吨，较前交易日变动-45.00元/吨，幅度-0.33%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.96元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.06元/公斤，现货基差 LH11+410，较前交易日变动-15；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.14元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.17元/公斤，现货基差LH11+590，较前交易日变动-125；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.77元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH11+220，较前交易日变动+45。 据农业农村部监测，9月3日"农产品批发价格200指数"为117.58，比昨天上升0.17个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为118.32，比昨天上升0.19个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.04元/公斤，比昨天上升1.2%；牛肉65.33 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；羊肉61.03元/公斤，比昨天上升0.4%；鸡蛋7.74元/公斤，比昨天上升2.0%；白条鸡17.28 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.9%。 市场分析 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. There is a loose balance in the balance sheet from August to September, with little supply - demand contradiction. Pay attention to cost changes under low inventory [3] Core View - The market atmosphere is poor, and EG continues to be weak. The futures and spot prices of EG have declined, production profits have decreased, and inventory has decreased. The domestic supply of ethylene glycol is expected to be stable at a high level in the short term, with a possible decline in synthetic gas load in September. Overseas supply has suffered many losses, and the import volume from September to October may be revised down. The demand shows signs of recovery, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase. The balance sheet from August to September is in a loose balance, with little supply - demand contradiction [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,331 yuan/ton (a change of - 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of - 0.18%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,434 yuan/ton (a change of - 19 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of - 0.43%), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 89 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 3 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 60 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 10 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was - 91 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 51 yuan/ton). The domestic ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable at a high level in the short term, and the synthetic gas load may decline in September [1][2] International Spread - No relevant data provided in the given text Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - The current demand shows signs of recovery, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase. Pay attention to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 449,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 51,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 413,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 85,000 tons). The actual arrival volume at the main ports last week was 50,000 tons, and the arrival volume was low. The port inventory decreased last week. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 98,000 tons, and the arrival volume is neutral [1]