1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral [2] - Cross - product: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy sector's recent fluctuations are significantly affected by the Iran situation, and the situation is still unclear. During the Spring Festival holiday, changes in the situation and news may lead to significant fluctuations in international oil prices, which will be transmitted to the post - holiday market, so risks should be noted before the holiday [1] - From the perspective of its own fundamentals, the market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has been running strongly recently, with good downstream marine fuel demand, and the raw material substitution of Venezuelan oil by domestic refineries has also promoted the import demand for fuel oil. However, there is no shortage expectation in the market. Russia's shipments increased significantly in January, which will lead to an increase in arrivals in Asia in February. Overall, under the premise of relatively controllable geopolitical situations, the fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil do not have the momentum to strengthen continuously. In a high - freight environment, over - valuation will suppress downstream refinery demand. If the Iran situation deteriorates further, high - sulfur fuel oil, as the main product of Iran's exports, has a relatively prominent risk exposure [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the current fundamental contradictions are not obvious. Due to the resumption of production at the Azur refinery, Kuwait's shipments were relatively high in January, but the overall pressure is relatively limited, and it mainly follows the fluctuations of the crude oil end in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures closed up 1.09% at 2,888 yuan/ton in the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.45% at 3,349 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Maintain a neutral stance, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation, avoid geopolitical risks as much as possible, and operate with a light position before the holiday [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Maintain a neutral stance, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation, avoid geopolitical risks as much as possible, and operate with a light position before the holiday [2] Figures and Data - There are multiple figures showing the prices, spreads, closing prices of futures contracts, and trading volumes and open interests of Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, as well as the fuel oil FU and low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures in China, with corresponding units such as US dollars/ton and yuan/ton, and hand [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the Civil Aviation Administration of China have issued an implementation opinion on promoting the high - quality development of low - altitude insurance. By 2027, a preliminary mandatory insurance system for unmanned aerial vehicle liability will be established, and by 2030, the policy framework for low - altitude insurance will basically take shape [1]. - The National Film Administration and the Ministry of Commerce have organized a "Film +" consumption comprehensive pilot program to boost consumption and promote the transformation of the film industry into a diversified consumption ecosystem [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Level Upstream - Black commodities are at low prices [1]. - Egg prices have declined [1]. - Building material prices have dropped [1]. Midstream - The operating rates of PX and urea remain high [2]. - The coal consumption of power plants has increased [2]. - The production of pork products has increased [2]. Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined [2]. - The number of domestic flights has remained high and stable [2]. 4. Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Value (as of 2/9) | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2271.4 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of eggs | 7.1 yuan/kg | - 12.96% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8972.0 yuan/ton | - 0.47% | | | Spot price of cotton | 15986.0 yuan/ton | - 0.65% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.3 yuan/kg | - 0.76% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 101646.7 yuan/ton | 0.79% | | | Spot price of zinc | 24656.0 yuan/ton | - 1.26% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 23406.7 yuan/ton | 1.90% | | | Spot price of nickel | 138650.0 yuan/ton | - 0.20% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 16506.3 yuan/ton | 0.08% | | | Spot price of rebar | 3170.0 yuan/ton | - 0.61% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of iron ore | 786.9 yuan/ton | - 2.25% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3367.5 yuan/ton | - 0.96% | | | Spot price of glass | 13.3 yuan/square meter | 0.15% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 16125.0 yuan/ton | 0.62% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 786.7 | - 0.56% | | | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 63.6 dollars/barrel | - 2.55% | | Energy | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 68.1 dollars/barrel | - 1.83% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 3620.0 yuan/ton | 0.39% | | | Coal price | 799.0 yuan/ton | - 0.50% | | | Spot price of PTA | 5144.3 yuan/ton | - 0.57% | | Chemical | Spot price of polyethylene | 6800.0 yuan/ton | - 3.20% | | | Spot price of urea | 1765.0 yuan/ton | - 0.70% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1201.4 yuan/ton | - 0.12% | | Real estate | National cement price index | 131.7 | - 0.79% | | | Building materials composite index | | - 0.43% | | | National concrete price index | 89.8 | - 0.42% | [36]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillating with a bearish bias [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [5][6] - Thermal Coal: Stable with a slight upward trend before the holiday, may face pressure after the holiday [7] Core Views - Steel market shows simultaneous weakening of supply and demand, with steel prices oscillating weakly due to pre - holiday inventory growth and lack of raw material drive [1] - Iron ore market has a large supply - demand contradiction, with port inventory slightly decreasing and iron water output rising. If port liquidity issues are resolved, there will be a large supply impact [3] - Coking coal and coke markets have a quiet trading atmosphere before the holiday. Coke prices are expected to oscillate with cost fluctuations, and coking coal prices are expected to be stable with narrow adjustments [5][6] - Thermal coal market has limited trading volume, with prices rising slightly due to supply contraction and expected to be stable and slightly strong before the holiday, but may face pressure after the holiday [7] Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices of steel oscillated downward. This week, steel demand dropped significantly, and inventory accumulation accelerated. The output of the five major steel products was 794100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25800 tons. The inventory was 1.4427 million tons, with an inventory accumulation of 105000 tons (last week's inventory accumulation was 59000 tons). The apparent demand was 689100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71600 tons [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The overall contradiction in the steel market is not prominent. Before the holiday, the construction material terminal is stagnant, and the rebar price is weak. The plate demand is relatively stable, but high inventory restricts the price space of hot - rolled coils. The steel inventory continues to grow before the holiday, and the supply - demand pressure increases slightly. With weak raw material drive, steel prices will oscillate weakly. Later, attention should be paid to winter storage replenishment and raw material price changes [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillating; Other strategies: None [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan Port fluctuated slightly. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 330490 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1910 tons. The total inventory of 45 ports was 169.46 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.94 million tons [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: On the supply side, non - mainstream shipments remain high at high ore prices, and global shipments decline seasonally, with port inventory slightly decreasing. On the demand side, the daily average molten iron output has increased slightly. After steel mills complete replenishment, the support for raw material prices is weak. The supply - demand contradiction is still large. If port liquidity issues are resolved, there will be a large supply impact. Later, attention should be paid to iron ore inventory changes and negotiation progress [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillating with a bearish bias; Other strategies: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke oscillated narrowly. The trading atmosphere of coking coal was quiet before the holiday, and the price decreased slightly. The spot price of coke was relatively stable, and most steel mills had completed inventory replenishment. This week, coking coal inventory decreased significantly, and coke inventory increased slightly [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, supply has increased slightly recently. Most steel mills have completed winter storage replenishment. Before the holiday, coking plants adjust production independently, and the price is expected to oscillate and follow cost fluctuations. For coking coal, the molten iron output of steel mills has increased, and the rigid demand maintains resilience. After downstream replenishment is completed, speculative demand shrinks. Before the Spring Festival, coal mines stop production and take holidays one after another, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is suspended during the Spring Festival, so the supply pressure of coking coal is relieved. It is expected that the coal price will be stable with narrow adjustments before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the resumption of domestic coal production after the holiday [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal: Oscillating; Coke: Oscillating; Other strategies: None [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, most private coal mines are on holiday, and supply further shrinks. In the port area, most traders are on holiday, and market trading is light. In the import market, the Indonesian policy has not been implemented, and the market pattern remains unchanged [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Recently, due to coal mine holidays, supply has shrunk, and downstream factories are also on holiday, so both supply and demand are weak. Affected by supply in the import market, the price of domestic coal continues to rise slightly. It is expected that the Indonesian supply will recover later. Overall, the price increase space before the holiday is limited, and it is expected to run stably and slightly strongly. After the holiday, when coal mine supply recovers and the peak season is approaching the end, coal prices may face pressure [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The port's actual inventory remains at a relatively high level before the holiday, with inventory decreasing in Jiangsu and increasing in Zhejiang. The MTO units of Xingxing and Shenghong in the downstream are still under maintenance. The progress of the recovery of Iran's winter - shutdown units before the Spring Festival is still slow, and attention should be paid to the recovery progress from late February to March and the development of the US - Iran situation. The expected loading volume from Iran is further decreasing, and attention should be paid to when the expectation of the port inventory reaching its peak and then decreasing will be confirmed. In the inland area, coal - based methanol plants maintain high operation rates, and the downstream pending orders are performing well. The inventory of inland factories has decreased again, and the seasonal inventory build - up before the Spring Festival has not been realized. The traditional downstream is in the seasonal off - season, with formaldehyde rapidly reducing its load seasonally before the Spring Festival, the acetic acid operation rate remaining low, and the MTBE operation rate being acceptable [2][3] Summary According to the Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures are presented, including methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, methanol basis in different regions, and the price difference between different methanol futures contracts [7][13][20] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, the import price difference of Taicang methanol, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [24][25][30] III. Methanol Operation, Inventory - Figures display the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operation rate (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operation rate of Chinese methanol plants (including integrated plants) [33][40] IV. Regional Price Difference - Figures illustrate the price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, Taicang - Lunan, etc [37][44][46] V. Traditional Downstream Profit - Figures show the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [50][53]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The urea market is affected by news, with the futures market showing a strong trend. The current urea guidance price remains unchanged, and manufacturers have no pressure in pre - holiday orders. It is expected that the price will remain firm before the Spring Festival [2] - In January, some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production, increasing the supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand for winter and spring fertilizers is ongoing, and manufacturers' pre - holiday orders are mostly completed. Some off - season reserve supplies will be released in February. Near the Spring Festival, the compound fertilizer production rate decreased, while the melamine production rate increased, with rigid demand for procurement. Overall, the inventory in urea factories decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [2] - Due to the situation in Iran, the international urea price has risen. India's RCF issued a urea import tender on February 7, with an intention of 150,000 tons. The follow - up needs to focus on export dynamics, off - season reserve release rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On February 12, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,843 yuan/ton (+46). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,810 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,800 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,810 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 43 yuan/ton (-46), in Henan was - 33 yuan/ton (-36), and in Jiangsu was - 33 yuan/ton (-46) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of February 12, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 90.59% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 834,700 tons (-83,800 tons), while the port sample inventory was 166,000 tons (+1,000 tons) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 235 yuan/ton (+0), and the export profit was 1,049 yuan/ton (+1) [1] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The report does not provide specific information on foreign market prices and export profit other than the export profit data mentioned above [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of February 12, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 36.19% (-5.60%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.77% (+2.82%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 11.12 days (+2.30) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The total inventory of sample enterprises was 834,700 tons (-83,800 tons), and the port sample inventory was 166,000 tons (+1,000 tons) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Oscillation [3] - Inter - period: Go long on UR05 - 09 when the spread is low [3] - Inter - variety: None [3]

FICC日报 | 2026-02-13 人民币升破6.9关口，关注美国1月CPI数据 市场分析 关注凯文.沃什观点。1月30日，特朗普总统宣布将提名凯文·沃什担任下届美联储主席，接替5月任期届满的现任主 席鲍威尔；凯文·沃什较为知名的政策主张是"降息+缩表"的政策组合拳，随后市场计价"美联储独立性回顾"，白银 一度跌超30%，黄金一度跌11%创下1980年3月以来的最大单日跌幅，并且当周比特币、贵金属、美股均有所承压， 短期需要警惕极端情绪反转所带来的波动。趋势上，我们认为本轮大跌并不改全球通胀的叙事，本轮海外的核心 驱动是来自特朗普的"一言堂"及其政策，对于凯文·沃什的提名更核心诉求在于降息和推降信用卡利率，以及带动 房地产市场，而相对的，在当下流动性略偏紧的环境中，沃什的"缩表"若想实现，需要更激进的"降息"进行对冲和 配合。美国国会预算办公室（CBO）周三再次警告称，美国正走在一条不可持续的财政道路上，并将未来十年的 赤字预测上调了1.4万亿美元，部分原因是总统特朗普2025年的税法以及移民政策。 通胀叙事大趋势不改。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开：会议强调，深入实施提振消费专项行动；强调深入整治"内 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the previous panic selling, market sentiment has recovered, and bullish confidence has gradually returned, which is an important reason for the recent rebound of lithium carbonate. Although the demand is in the off - season before the Spring Festival, the expected significant rebound in lithium - battery production in March supports the price increase. Overall, the support of energy - storage demand, the short - term supply tightness, and the strong performance of the non - ferrous metals sector will keep the current price at a high level [1] Market Analysis - On February 12, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 150,000 yuan/ton and closed at 149,420 yuan/ton, with a 3.66% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 304,798 lots, and the open interest was 353,975 lots (the previous trading day's open interest was 356,531 lots). The current basis is - 5,480 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 37,282 lots, a change of 1,755 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 138,000 - 147,000 yuan/ton, a change of 4,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 135,000 - 143,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 4,500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,005 US dollars/ton, a change of 25 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - The spot inventory is 102,932 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,531 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 16,920 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,436 tons; the downstream inventory is 44,492 tons, a month - on - month increase of 835 tons; other inventories are 41,520 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,930 tons. In February, the demand market is in the traditional off - season. Although the medium - and long - term expectations for energy - storage demand remain optimistic, and there is "rush - to - export" support due to the adjustment of export tax - rebate policies in the first quarter, the short - term procurement demand has slowed down [2] Strategy - Currently, the price of lithium carbonate fluctuates greatly. With the Spring Festival approaching, attention should be paid to the position - holding risk. Short - term range trading is the main strategy. However, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still good. If the price correction is too large, one can consider going long at low prices after the Spring Festival [3] - Unilateral: Short - term range trading. If the correction is large, consider going long at low prices [3] - Inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: None [4]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views - Due to pre - holiday trading slump and factors such as South American soybean bumper harvest and the extension of anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, the prices of the three major oils are expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] Group 3: Market Data Summary Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8782.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 124 yuan or 1.39% compared to the previous period [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8082.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.00 yuan or 0.35% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9047.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84.00 yuan or 0.92% [1] Spot Prices and Basis - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8780.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.00 yuan or 0.79%, and the spot basis was P05 - 2.00, an increase of 54.00 yuan [1] - In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8390.00 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot basis was Y05 + 308.00, an increase of 28.00 yuan [1] - In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80.00 yuan or 0.81%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 753.00, an increase of 4.00 yuan [1] US Soybean Sales and Shipment - The net sales of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 28.2 tons, down from 43.7 tons the previous week; for the 2026/2027 marketing year, it was 0.1 tons, up from 0 tons the previous week [2] - The export shipments of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 112.9 tons, down from 138.8 tons the previous week [2] - The net sales of US soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 28.6 tons, up from 23.3 tons the previous week; for the 2026/2027 marketing year, it remained 0 tons [2] - The cumulative sales of US soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 marketing year reached 1017.3 tons, up from 988.7 tons the previous week [2] - The export shipments of US soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 74.6 tons, down from 80.9 tons the previous week; the cumulative shipments were 507 tons, up from 432.4 tons the previous week; the unshipped volume was 510.3 tons, down from 556.3 tons the previous week [2] Brazilian Soybean Forecast - CONAB predicted that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season would reach 177.985 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5045 million tons or 3.8% [2] - The sown area of soybeans in Brazil in the 2025/2026 season was expected to reach 48.4344 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.0883 million hectares or 2.3% [2] - The soybean yield in Brazil in the 2025/2026 season was expected to be 3.67 tons per hectare, a year - on - year increase of 52.918 kilograms per hectare or 1.5% [2] Other Market Information - The IEA lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 in its February report, expecting a growth of 850,000 barrels per day, down from the previous forecast of 930,000 barrels per day [2] - The investigation period for anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed has been extended to March 9, 2026 [2] - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 10 was 273,472 tons, a 16.1% decrease compared to the same period last month [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$17.80 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 20 yuan per ton to 24,480 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of -30 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 10 yuan per ton to 24,450 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of -60 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 20 yuan per ton to 24,430 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of -80 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On February 12, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,750 yuan per ton and closed at 24,650 yuan per ton, up 165 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 96,396 lots, and the open interest was 51,593 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,775 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 24,415 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of February 12, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 160,400 tons, an increase of 11,900 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 103,500 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons from the previous trading day [3]

氯碱日报 | 2026-02-13 下游开工节前走弱 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4938元/吨（-52）；华东基差-208元/吨（+42）;华南基差-98元/吨（+32）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4730元/吨（-10）；华南电石法报价4840元/吨（-20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2945元/吨（+15）；电石利润67元/吨（+15）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-698元/吨（-39）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利129元/吨（+26）；PVC出口利润15.4美元/吨（+0.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存31.2万吨（+2.4）；PVC社会库存61.4万吨（+2.1）；PVC电石法开工率80.78%（+0.41%）； PVC乙烯法开工率73.69%（+0.44%）；PVC开工率78.62%（+0.41%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量101.3万吨（-5.8）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价1958元/吨（+4）；山东32%液碱基差-83元/吨（+27）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价600元/吨（+10）；山东50%液碱报价1 ...