FICC日报 | 2025-12-12 中央经济工作会议召开，关注中国11月金融数据 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进 一步促进消费政策措施。11月24日，国家发展改革委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。11月28 日，工信部组织召开动力和储能电池行业制造业企业座谈会，强调认真落实党中央关于综合整治"内卷式"竞争的 决策部署，加快推出针对性政策举措，依法依规治理动力和储能电池产业非理性竞争。中共中央政治局会议明确 指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，继续实施更加积极的财政 政策和适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，持续扩大内需、优 化供给，做优增量、盘活存量。中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议强调，深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实 施城乡居民增收计划；深入整治"内卷式"竞争制定和实施，进一步深化国资国企改革方案；着力稳定房地产市场， 鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房。会议确认，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要 考量， ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-12 需求提振有限，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11220元/吨，较前交易日变动-90.00元/吨，幅度-0.80%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.28元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+60，较前交易日变动+100；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.55元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH03+330，较前交易日变动+200；四 川地区外三元生猪价格11.93元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH03+710，较前交易日变动+190。 据农业农村部监测，12月11日"农产品批发价格200指数"为129.45，比昨天下降0.01个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为132.20，比昨天下降0.01个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.62元/公斤，比昨天下降1.5%；牛肉65.95 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；羊肉62.24元/公斤，比昨天下降0.8%；鸡蛋7.47元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；白条鸡17.72 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.6%。 市场 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-12 当前供需格局并未出现转变，油厂开工率维持高位，大豆及豆粕库存持续累库，政策端稳定之后，暂无突发新闻 刺激豆粕市场，因此整体豆粕价格同样以震荡运行为主。当前美豆进口成本依旧偏高，未来需重点关注美豆的进 口情况以及新季南美产区的天气情况。 供需格局延续，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 策略 市场要闻与重要数据 谨慎偏空 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2750元/吨，较前日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.15%；菜粕2605合约2323元/吨，较前日 变动-6元/吨，幅度-0.26%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3090元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差M05+340， 较前日变动+34；江苏地区豆粕现货3040元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M05+290，较前日变动+14；广东 地区豆粕现货价格3050元/吨，较前日变动跌+20元/吨，现货基差M05+300，较前日变动+24。福建地区菜粕现货价 格2550元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差RM05+227，较前日变动+16。 风险 近期市场资讯，12月10日，美国农业部发布的月度油籽压榨报告显示，美国2025年 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-12-12 供应端持续增量，需求延续低迷 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5749元/吨（+11），丙烯华东现货价5975元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6090元/吨（+0）， 丙烯华东基差226元/吨（-11），丙烯华北基差140元/吨（+9）。丙烯开工率74%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR191美元/吨（+4），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR38美元/吨（-7），进口利润-361元/吨（-25），厂内库存45960吨（-1930）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率40%（-0.93%），生产利润-330元/吨（+0）；环氧丙烷开工率76%（+0%），生产利润82 元/吨（+0）；正丁醇开工率69%（-6%），生产利润412元/吨（+0）；辛醇开工率77%（+1%），生产利润693元/吨（+0）； 丙烯酸开工率80%（+2%），生产利润408元/吨（-25）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+0%），生产利润-730元/吨（-39）；酚 酮开工率80%（-3%），生产利润-952元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 供应端山东滨华PDH装置重启，PDH亏损检修现象仍不明显，丙烯开 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-12-12 卸港延后，港口库存再度快速下降 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润578元/吨（+3）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1983元/吨（+3），内蒙北线基差509元/吨（-19），内蒙南线1940元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2235元/吨（+8），鲁 南基差361元/吨（-14）；河南2110元/吨（+0），河南基差236元/吨（-21）；河北2135元/吨（+0），河北基差321元/ 吨（-21）。隆众内地工厂库存352830吨（-8490），西北工厂库存199000吨（-6000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单207471 吨（-32244），西北工厂待发订单101600吨（-26900）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2105元/吨（+27），太仓基差31元/吨（+6），CFR中国242美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-25元/ 吨（+3），常州甲醇2335元/吨；广东甲醇2075元/吨（+15），广东基差1元/吨（-6）。隆众港口总库存1234370吨（-115060）， 江苏港口库存635100吨（-68200），浙江港 ...

油料日报 | 2025-12-12 东北豆市高位观望情绪升温，花生产区质量分化成交清淡 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4173.00元/吨，较前日变化+12.00元/吨，幅度+0.29%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01-13，较前日变化-12，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北地区新季大豆现货市场呈现稳中偏强格局。由于农户手中余粮有限，普遍存有惜售盼涨 心理，市场供应趋紧，带动部分大型企业收购价上调。同时，中储粮的收购政策也对价格形成底部支撑，推动近 期行情连续走强，商品豆塔粮价格也出现局部上涨。后续大豆价格走势，仍需重点关注下游需求的恢复情况。黑 龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.08元/斤，较前一日涨0.03元/斤；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市 场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白 中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日涨0.02元/斤；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装 车报价2.22元/斤，较前一日涨0.02元/斤；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term arrival pressure of pure benzene in China is high, and port inventories are accumulating rapidly. The gasoline crack spread overseas is weak, but the price difference between the US and South Korea in the pure benzene market has been repaired. Downstream demand remains weak, and the off - season for downstream operations continues [3]. - For styrene, port inventories have further declined, and the port basis remains strong. Styrene maintains low - level operations, and downstream demand is fair. However, the off - season for downstream operations is obvious, and inventory pressure persists [3]. Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spreads - Relevant figures include the basis of pure benzene's main contract, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, the spread between pure benzene's first - and third - continuous contracts, the trend and basis of EB's main contract, and the spread between EB's first - and third - continuous contracts [8][13][16]. II. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB South Korea pure benzene and CFR Japan naphtha, non - integrated styrene production profits, price differences between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and FOB South Korea pure benzene, price differences between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, price differences between FOB Rotterdam pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, pure benzene import profits, and styrene import profits [21][23][32]. III. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports, the operating rate of pure benzene, the inventory of styrene at East China ports, the operating rate of styrene, the commercial inventory of styrene in East China, and the factory inventory of styrene [40][42][45]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Figures include the operating rate and production profit of EPS, the operating rate and production profit of PS, and the operating rate and production profit of ABS [51][53][56]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Figures involve the operating rates of caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, and adipic acid, as well as their production profits, and the production profits of PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [61][64][73]. Strategies - Unilateral: None. - Basis and Inter - period: Consider a long - short spread trade on EB2601 - EB2602 when the price is low. - Cross - variety: Consider widening the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 when the price is low [4].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-12 市场成交转弱，钢价震荡下行 玻璃纯碱：供需矛盾持续，玻璃震荡偏弱 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡偏弱运行。现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。据隆众数据显 示：本周浮法玻璃厂家库存5822.7万重箱，环比减少2.05%。 供需与逻辑：伴随玻璃产线冷修增加，供应收缩扰动下，带动玻璃需求小幅好转，但玻璃供应收缩程度仍不足， 供需矛盾依旧较大。库存虽有所去化，但仍处高位，持续关注玻璃冷修及宏观政策情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面窄幅震荡运行。现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。据隆众数据显示： 本周纯碱产量73.54万吨，环比增加4.48%；库存149.43万吨，环比减少2.88%。 供需与逻辑：纯碱成本端支撑有所减弱，库存虽有去化，但仍处于高位。且考虑到后续浮法玻璃冷修仍有增加预 期，重碱需求面临挑战，压制纯碱价格高度，持续关注下游需求情况对纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 风险 宏观及房地产政策、宏观政策情况、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：建材消费下降，合金承压 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Group 2: Report Core Views - The steel market's trading volume has weakened, and steel prices are fluctuating downward. The fundamentals of building materials are improving, while those of plates are not improving enough. The arrival of the off - season for building materials demand should be monitored [1]. - Iron ore prices have slightly declined due to a drop in hot metal production. The supply - demand contradiction is accumulating, and the release of inventory in the future may put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of iron ore negotiations [3]. - A new round of price cuts for coking coal and coke has begun, and their prices are fluctuating downward. The bearish sentiment for coke is strong, and the price of coking coal is still under pressure [4][5]. - The price of thermal coal at ports and in production areas has been continuously falling. In the long - term, the supply remains loose, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3069 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures closed at 3238 yuan/ton. The production, inventory, and demand of the five major steel products have all decreased. The spot trading of steel was weak, and prices in mainstream areas followed the decline of the futures market [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are improving, with both consumption and production declining, and inventory pressure easing. The fundamentals of plates are not improving enough, and high inventory is suppressing prices, requiring appropriate production cuts. The impact of off - season demand on the fundamentals should be monitored [1]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for steel is a unilateral oscillation, with no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices fluctuated weakly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports were weak. The trading volume at major ports was 99.1 million tons, a 38.60% increase from the previous period. The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 229.20 million tons, a decrease of 3.10 million tons from the previous period [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore shipments increased slightly this period, and the average daily hot metal production continued to decline. The supply - demand contradiction is still accumulating, and inventory is rising. If external factors are removed, inventory release may put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of iron ore negotiations [3]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for iron ore is a unilateral oscillation, with no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [3]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated downward. Some steel mills initiated a new round of price cuts for coke, with a reduction of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The price of coking coal in the main production areas continued to decline, and the price of imported Mongolian coal also decreased [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The bearish sentiment for coke is strong, the support for raw material demand is weak, and the demand for coke is weakening due to the decline in hot metal production. Attention should be paid to the price of raw coal and changes in hot metal production. The sentiment for coking coal is still weak, downstream demand is limited, and coal prices are still under pressure [4][5]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for coking coal and coke is an oscillation, with no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [5]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The price of coal in the main production areas continued to decline, and there was a wait - and - see sentiment in the market. The supply in the production areas was slightly tightened due to the maintenance of some coal mines. The price at ports continued to fall, demand was weak, and trading was cold. The price of imported coal also fell rapidly and maintained a cost - performance advantage [6]. - **Demand and Logic**: Pessimistic sentiment has spread in the market recently, and coal prices are fluctuating. In the long - term, the supply remains loose, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [6]. - **Strategy**: There is no strategy provided for thermal coal [7].

2 【量价观察】美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率下降 国内基本面向好与美 联储降息的双重信号 华泰期货研究院 2025年12月12日 蔡劭立 F3063489 Z0014617 联系人： 朱思谋 F03142856 — 量价和政策信号— 【量价观察】期限结构 ◆3个月的美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率曲线显示出人民币的升值趋势，Put端波动率高于Call端 美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率 Delta为5的美元兑人民币3个月期权隐含波动率 数据来源： 3 Bloomberg Wind 华泰期货研究院 2 3 4 5 6 3M 2025/12/11 3M 2025/09/30 3M 2025/06/30 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2023-09 2024-03 2024-09 2025-03 2025-09 20251210（%） 20251203（%） 20251112（%） (0.5) 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 一月 三月 六月 一年 本周新交所美元兑人民币期货升贴水(-) 本周银行远期升贴水(-) 本周美中利差 (0.5) 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 一月 三月 六月 一年 上周新交所美元兑 ...