新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-04 仓单增加较多，碳酸锂盘面偏弱运行 策略 当日期货盘面继续偏弱运行，碳酸锂供需双增，云母减量后，辉石补充部分减量，智利出口量一般，预计9月维持 小幅去库。近期仓单增加较多，对盘面形成一定抑制，目前江西其他矿山后续审批情况存在不确定性，需关注矿 端开工情况，消费端存在支撑，在矿端扰动影响下，碳酸锂预计仍有支撑，但盘面波动较大，参与者需做好风险 管控。 单边：谨慎偏多 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：买入看涨期权 市场分析 2025-09-03，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于72860元/吨，收于71880元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-3.10%。当日 成交量为442800手，持仓量为346048手，前一交易日持仓量348109手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为3020元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单34118手，较上个交易日变化2111手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价73900-77900元/吨，较前一交易日变化-1600元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价72900-74300元/吨，较前一交易日变化-1600元/吨。6%锂精矿价格850 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-04 市场分析 国内现货市场维持弱势运行，成交冷清，贴水低位稳定。但海外升水持续走强，内外供需矛盾短期难解。国内基 本面依旧偏弱势，虽然国产矿TC难涨，受甚至可能小幅回落，但冶炼利润犹存，国内供给压力依旧较大，8月锌锭 产量同比增加28%，消费旺季持续累库为大概率事件。但海外对价格形成有利支撑，一方面宏观向好，另一方面海 外锌锭供应收缩，消费平稳，海外库存持续下滑，贴水收窄，存在挤仓风险。当前锌锭绝对价格回落后下游采购 积极性好转，短期锌价维持中性判断。 策略 单边：中性。 套利：中性。 风险 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为20.44美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日90元/吨至22240元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-70元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日90元/吨至22230元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-80元/吨；天津锌 现货价较前一交易日90元/吨至22230元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-80元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-03沪锌主力合约开于22250元/吨，收于22285元/吨，较前一交易日20元/吨，全天交易日成交 117964手，全天交易日持仓1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The performance of pure benzene remains weak due to concentrated arrivals and a decline in downstream开工率. The inventory pressure in the CPL - PA6 - nylon and aniline - MDI industrial chains is still significant. For styrene, although the port inventory slightly declined after reaching a peak, the absolute inventory level is still high. With more maintenance in September, the port inventory is expected to peak. The开工率 of EPS and ABS among styrene's downstream products declined again, while that of PS continued to rise, and the production profits of styrene weakened again [3]. Summary by Directory I. Basis Structure and Inter - Temporal Spreads of Pure Benzene and EB - The pure benzene主力基差 is - 110 yuan/ton (- 24), and the styrene主力基差 is 20 yuan/ton (- 46 yuan/ton). The pure benzene spot - M2 spread is - 45 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton) [1]. II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 128 dollars/ton (- 9 dollars/ton), and FOB Korea processing fee is 112 dollars/ton (- 8 dollars/ton). The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 411 yuan/ton (+ 23 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress [1]. III. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 14.90 million tons (+ 1.10 million tons), and its operating rate is not mentioned. Styrene East China port inventory is 196,500 tons (+ 17,500 tons), commercial inventory is 96,500 tons (+ 12,500 tons), and the operating rate is 78.1% (- 0.5%) [1]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream Products - EPS production profit is 261 yuan/ton (- 59 yuan/ton), PS production profit is 11 yuan/ton (- 9 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is - 56 yuan/ton (- 52 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 58.35% (- 2.63%), PS operating rate is 59.90% (+ 2.40%), and ABS operating rate is 70.80% (- 0.30%) [2]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream Products - Caprolactam production profit is - 1700 yuan/ton (+ 0), phenol - ketone production profit is - 539 yuan/ton (+ 0), aniline production profit is - 216 yuan/ton (- 12), and adipic acid production profit is - 1106 yuan/ton (- 41). Caprolactam operating rate is 89.38% (- 2.48%), phenol operating rate is 76.00% (- 2.00%), aniline operating rate is 67.55% (- 2.55%), and adipic acid operating rate is 63.20% (- 2.30%) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously short - hedge pure benzene and styrene at high prices. - Basis and inter - temporal: Wait and see. - Cross - variety: Wait and see [4].

贵金属日报 | 2025-09-04 美联储理事沃勒强化9月降息预期 宽松催化持续发酵 期货行情与成交量： 2025-09-03，沪金主力合约开于804.42元/克，收于814.88元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.31%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于817.50元/克，收于821.68元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.83%。 2025-09-03，沪银主力合约开于9766.00元/千克，收于9820.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.04%。当日成交量 为627101手，持仓量为270592手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于9851元/千克，收于9918元/千克，较昨日午后收盘上 涨1.00%。 美债收益率与利差监控： 2025-09-03，美国10年期国债利率收于4.219%，较前一交易日+0.19BP，10年期与2年期利差为0.602%，较前一交 易日-0.43BP。 上期所金银持仓与成交量变化情况： 2025-09-03，Au2508合约上，多头较前一日变化400手，空头则是变化403手。沪金合约上个交易日总成交量为417207 手，较前一交易日变化30.3 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-09-04 中东燃料油出口持续增加，关注欧佩克动向 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.04%，报2840元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.85%，报3512 元/吨。 当前地缘与宏观形势仍不明朗，尤其俄乌和谈进展有限，原油端短期面临诸多不确定性，目前处于区间震荡走势， 并无明朗方向，FU、LU盘面也呈现窄幅波动状态。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫燃料油处于市场调整与再平衡的阶段，多空因素交织。其中，市场的压制因素之 一在于随着欧佩克增产，中东高硫燃料油出口呈现持续增长态势。参考船期数据，中东7、8月份高硫燃料油发货 量分别达到341和338万吨，近几个月逐步攀升，远高于1月份208万吨的水平。往前看，随着电力终端需求旺季结 束，沙特等国出口可能还有提升空间，对于燃料油市场是潜在的压力。 低硫燃料油方面，当前市场压力有限，国产量维持低位，近期西区套利供应再度收紧，其中巴西低硫燃料油出口 出现下滑，外盘维持Back结构。短期来看，市场结构相对持稳，但也无太强驱动。在中期视角下，低硫燃料油依 然面临需求份额被替代、剩余产能较多的矛盾，因此虽估值下方存在一定支撑，向 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-03 宏观因素推动锌价上涨 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为14.98美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日50元/吨至22150元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-70元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日40元/吨至22140元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-80元/吨；天津锌 现货价较前一交易日50元/吨至22140元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-80元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-02沪锌主力合约开于22175元/吨，收于22325元/吨，较前一交易日130元/吨，全天交易日成交 125688手，全天交易日持仓107662手，日内价格最高点达到22380元/吨，最低点达到22165元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-09-02，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为14.63万吨，较上期变化0.18万吨。截止2025-09-02，LME 锌库存为55600吨，较上一交易日变化-275吨。 市场分析 宏观因素叠加海外库存持续下滑支撑锌价上涨，但消费端难以跟随，现货成交持续冷清，现货贴水难修复。国内 基本面依旧偏弱势，虽然国产矿TC难涨，受甚至可能小幅回落，但冶炼利润犹存，国内供给压 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Trading Volume - On September 2, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 958,300 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,071,600 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,355,700 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 178,100 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 2,877,900 contracts; the trading volume of SSE 50 index options was 64,500 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 133,600 contracts; and the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 389,200 contracts [1] - The call trading volume, put trading volume, and total trading volume of different index ETF options on a recent day are presented in a table, including details for SSE 50 ETF options, CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), etc [19] Option PCR - The turnover PCR and position PCR, along with their环比 changes, are reported for various options such as SSE 50 ETF options, CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), etc. For example, the turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options is reported at 0.47 with a环比 change of +0.04, and the position PCR is 0.94 with a环比 change of +0.00 [2] Option VIX - The VIX and its环比 changes are provided for different options. For instance, the VIX of SSE 50 ETF options is 22.66% with a环比 change of -0.09%, and the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) is 21.83% with a环比 change of -0.01% [3]

美联储有望重启宽松周期。8月22日鲍威尔在全球央行年会上讲话有所转鸽：认为当前的形势意味着，就业面临的 下行风险上升。这种风险平衡的转变可能意味着需要调整政策立场。明确放弃2020年灵活平均通胀目标框架，强 调"有意让通胀温和超调的思路已不适用"。鲍威尔态度转鸽后为美联储9月降息扫平道路，海外通胀上升路径更顺 畅。美国纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，如果中性利率是1%或略低，现在就处在限制区域。特朗普威胁罢免美联储 理事库克，库克起诉反对；美联储发声称罢免理事需"正当理由"，将遵法院判决。美国参议院银行委员会下周将 针对总统特朗普的美联储（临时）理事提名人Miran举行听证会。美国财长贝森特表示，"肯定"会在秋季知道特朗 普选择的美联储主席，负责房利美和房地美交易事宜的银行将于9-10月左右选定。欧洲央行7月会议纪要显示，官 员认为通胀风险"总体平衡"。欧元区8月CPI年率初值录得2.1%，略高于上月的2%，符合市场预期，支持欧洲央行 继续按兵不动。欧洲主要经济体的长期国债收益率正加速攀升，英国、德国和法国30年期国债收益率均创下自金 融危机以来甚至本世纪以来的新高，投资者对不断扩大的财政赤字和政策不确定性反应强烈 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-03 市场分析 2025-09-02，工业硅期货价格偏强运行，主力合约2511开于8480元/吨，最后收于8470元/吨，较前一日结算变化（95） 元/吨，变化（1.13）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓281480手，2025-09-02仓单总数为50029手，较前一日变化-371 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9000-9200（50）元/吨；421#硅在9300-9500 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8400-8600（50）元/吨，99硅价格在8400-8600（50）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、 天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价报价小幅上调，97硅价格也小幅上涨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10500-10900（-50）元/吨。SMM报道，有机硅企业成本压力增加，消费 终端旺季补库一般，预计整体消费持稳。 策略 现货价格小幅波动，短期供需边际好转，但产能过剩及库存压力大，供应端仍有增加预期，工业硅盘面受整体商 品情绪震荡运行。 多晶硅现货报价继续上调，关注价格向下游传导情况 工业硅： 风险 多晶硅： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Maersk has lowered its freight rate to $1700/FEU, and the freight rates of other shipping companies are also following suit. The overall freight rate center in September has dropped to around $2000/FEU, and the cargo collection pressure is relatively high. [1][4] - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation as the freight rate center continues to decline. With the release of HPL's two additional vessels in October, it is expected to put pressure on the spot price in October. [4] - The December contract still follows the pattern of peak and off - peak seasons. However, the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. If ships from the US line are diverted to the European line in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European line prices. [5] - The main contract of container shipping index futures is oscillating weakly, and it is advisable to short the October contract when the price is high. [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different freight rate quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's 37 - week price for Shanghai - Rotterdam is $1175/1970, and the 38 - week price is $1025/1710. [1] - **Geopolitical Situation**: On September 2, local time, the Israeli military stated that it would intensify its military operations in the Gaza Strip. [2] - **Blank Sailings and Additional Vessels**: MSC has announced blank sailings during the Chinese Golden Week, with a total of about 59,000 TEU of capacity affected. HPL has announced two additional vessels in October, with a total capacity of about 11,500 TEU. [3] 2. Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: The delivery and settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. In normal years, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Currently, the freight rate center has dropped, and short - allocation is relatively safe. [4] - **December Contract**: In the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays and shipping companies' preparations for long - term contract negotiations, the freight rate is usually higher. However, the risk is the bottom of the current freight rate decline. [5] 3. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of September 2, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts vary. For example, the EC2602 contract closed at 1550.10, and the EC2510 contract closed at 1340.70. [6] - **Spot Prices**: On August 29, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1481.00/TEU, and on September 1, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1773.60 points. [6] 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 31, 2025, 180 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.452 million TEU. [7] 5. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The main contract is oscillating weakly. [7] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Short the October contract when the price is high. [7]