甲醇日报 | 2025-09-04 港口延续快速累库，内地工厂库存回建 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤415元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润753元/吨（+15）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2058元/吨（+15），内蒙北线基差276元/吨（+5），内蒙南线2070元/吨（+35）；山东临沂2330元/吨（+10）， 鲁南基差148元/吨（+0）；河南2210元/吨（+5），河南基差28元/吨（-5）；河北2235元/吨（-30），河北基差113元/ 吨（-40）。隆众内地工厂库存341083吨（+7690），西北工厂库存219000吨（+4500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单237285 吨（+20300），西北工厂待发订单133200吨（+19900）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2253元/吨（+18），太仓基差-129元/吨（+8），CFR中国258美元/吨（+1），华东进口价差-23元 /吨（-4），常州甲醇2425元/吨；广东甲醇2255元/吨（+10），广东基差-127元/吨（+0）。隆众港口总库存1427655吨 （+127905），江苏港口库存760000吨（+88 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market anticipates a further build - up of Malaysian palm oil inventories, possibly reaching a multi - year high. With sufficient rapeseed and soybean yields, the overall supply side of the oil market faces significant pressure, causing the oil market to remain under continuous pressure [3] Group 3: Summary of Specific Content Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,368.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 54 yuan (- 0.57%); the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,366.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 10.00 yuan (+ 0.12%); the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,727.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 39.00 yuan (- 0.40%) [1] Spot Prices - In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9,300.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 80.00 yuan (- 0.85%), and the spot basis was P01 + - 68.00, with a环比 change of - 26.00 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,480.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 0.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.00%), and the spot basis was Y01 + 114.00, with a环比 change of - 10.00 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,880.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 20.00 yuan (- 0.20%), and the spot basis was OI01 + 153.00, with a环比 change of + 19.00 yuan [1] Market Consultation - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 is expected to be 2.2 million tons, a 4.06% increase from July, reaching the highest level since December 2023; production is expected to be 1.86 million tons, a 2.5% increase from July, rising to the highest level since August last year; exports are expected to be 1.45 million tons, a 10.7% increase from July, reaching a nine - month high [2] - Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) C&F price increased by 1 dollar/ton to 526 dollars/ton; Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) C&F price increased by 4 dollars/ton to 525 dollars/ton [2] - Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) C&F price increased by 4 dollars/ton to 1,161 dollars/ton; Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) C&F price increased by 6 dollars/ton to 1,163 dollars/ton [2] - Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) remained at 1,080 dollars/ton; Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) remained at 1,060 dollars/ton [2] - US Gulf soybeans (October shipment) C&F price decreased by 3 dollars/ton to 470 dollars/ton; US West soybeans (October shipment) C&F price decreased by 9 dollars/ton to 442 dollars/ton; Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) C&F price decreased by 1 dollar/ton to 486 dollars/ton [2] - Imported soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (October shipment) increased by 5 cents/bu to 240 cents/bu; US West Coast (October shipment) decreased by 10 cents/bu to 165 cents/bu; Brazilian ports (October shipment) increased by 10 cents/bu to 285 cents/bu [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market trading volume declined, and the communication sector closed in the red. The Shanghai Composite Index corrected, with the A-share market showing a mixed trend. The futures index basis also declined. It is expected that the stock index will show a volatile adjustment trend in September, and investors can use stock index futures for risk hedging [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Domestic Situation**: The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held a meeting to discuss issues related to the bond market. The A-share market had a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.16% to 3813.56 points, the ChiNext Index up 0.95%, and the trading volume of the two markets dropping to 2.4 trillion yuan. The Fed's decision to cut interest rates affected the US stock market, with the Nasdaq up 1.02% [1][2] - **Overseas Situation**: US job data was weak, with the number of job openings in July dropping to a 10 - month low. Fed Governor Waller suggested starting interest rate cuts this month, and the three major US stock indexes closed with mixed results [1][2] Strategy - Some popular sectors had a volume - adjusted decline and need time to recover. It is expected that the stock index will be volatile in September, and investors can use stock index futures for risk hedging [3] Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts on the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][11][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index all declined, while the ChiNext Index and Shanghai 50 Index rose [13] - **Other Indicators**: Charts show the trading volume of the two markets and the margin trading balance [14] Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of IF, IH, and IM increased, while the open interest of stock index futures decreased [15] - **Basis**: The basis of stock index futures declined, with relatively large declines in IF and IH [41] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spreads of stock index futures showed various changes [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] 2. Report's Core View - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side is affected by the continuous decline in TC prices and an increase in smelter maintenance. On the demand side, dealers' inventory reduction is slow, and their procurement willingness is low, with some enterprises accumulating finished - product inventory. With the upcoming implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles in September and the Middle East tariff policy, the impact on consumption is uncertain. Therefore, the lead price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with the volatility range likely between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On December 19, 2024, the LME lead spot premium was -$31.73/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -50 yuan/ton to 50.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price changed by -75 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by -50 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries changed by -50 yuan/ton to 9,525 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries changed by -50 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On December 19, 2024, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,795 yuan/ton, closed at 16,730 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 28,827 lots, a decrease of 11,102 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 43,709 lots, a decrease of 3,629 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,810 yuan/ton and a low of 16,660 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,865 yuan/ton and closed at 16,860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In the Henan region, holders quoted at par with the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 140 - 120 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract. In the Hunan region, most lead smelters quoted at a discount of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead, and some holders quoted at a discount of 160 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract. In the Yunnan region, holders quoted at a discount of over 200 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. Although the lead futures price strengthened slightly, downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand, and the overall trading in the spot market was weak [2] Inventory - On December 19, 2024, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of September 3, the LME lead inventory was 234,700 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4]

农产品日报 | 2025-09-04 供应压力显现，糖价偏弱整理 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13990元/吨，较前一日变动-55元/吨，幅度-0.39%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15373元/吨，较前一日变动+49元/吨，现货基差CF01+1383，较前一日变动+104；3128B棉全国均价15465元/ 吨，较前一日变动+53元/吨，现货基差CF01+1475，较前一日变动+108。 近期市场资讯，近期印度棉区普遍出现强降雨天气，部分吐絮棉花可能已受到损伤。受近期棉花质量下降和来自 进口棉的竞争压力影响，印度国内棉花价格持续承压。2日印度棉花公司（CCI）抛储约17.0万吨。从价格情况来 看，印度棉花公司（CCI）S-6竞拍底价稳定在54500卢比/坎地，折约78.85美分/磅。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，近期印度延长暂免关税时间，对美棉起到一定支撑作用。8月USDA大幅下调 全球棉花产量及期末库存，供需格局直接由偏松转为偏紧。但USDA对于部分增产国家的产量调整或尚未到位。美 棉供需预期有望较此前改善，将对美棉形成较强支撑，但由于当前美棉出口 ...

油料日报 | 2025-09-04 中性 风险 无 豆一供应收紧带动，花生采购需求延续低迷 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2511合约3961.00元/吨，较前日变化-9.00元/吨，幅度-0.23%。现货方面，食用豆现货基差 A11+259，较前日变化+9，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北大豆市场价格平稳运行，目前粮贸企业库存见底，市场购销表现清淡，部分企业竞拍国储库 陈粮以维持老客户，大部分企业等着新豆上市价格指引，预计部分地区9月20日前后或有新粮上市。黑龙江哈尔滨 市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.11元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋 白中粒塔粮装车报价2.10元/斤，较较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价 2.07元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较前一日 平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.19元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场 国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤，较前一日平。 昨日豆一期货反弹动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - end support for natural rubber may continue, with domestic Qingdao port and social inventories showing a slight downward trend. Attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories during the upcoming downstream traditional peak season [8] - For cis - butadiene rubber, the supply - demand situation may improve slightly, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The cost - end support for cis - butadiene rubber still exists [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,885 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), the NR main contract was at 12,715 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton), and the BR main contract was at 11,885 yuan/ton (+65 yuan/ton) [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,900 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), etc. [1] Market Information - Global natural rubber: In July 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, and consumption was expected to drop by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons. In the first 7 months, cumulative production was expected to increase by 0.1% to 7.477 million tons, and cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 0.6% to 8.888 million tons [2] - China's heavy - truck market: In August 2025, the sales volume was about 84,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.586 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. Exports to China totaled 622,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7% [2] - China's natural rubber imports: In July 2025, the import volume was 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [3] - Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, the export volume was 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - China's rubber tire exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, the export volume was 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 3, 2025, the RU basis was - 885 yuan/ton (-15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 985 yuan/ton (-5), etc. [4] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 61.29 baht/kg (+0.31), the price of Thai glue was 55.60 baht/kg (+0), and the price of Thai cup lump was 51.30 baht/kg (+0.10) [5] -开工率：The full - steel tire operating rate was 64.89% (-0.08%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate was 70.97% (-0.90%) [7] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,264,898 tons (-5,911 tons), the inventory at Qingdao Port was 602,295 tons (-3,908 tons), etc. [7] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 3, 2025, the BR basis was - 135 yuan/ton (-65), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (+0), etc. [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 75.85% (+6.70%) [7] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 7,260 tons (+640 tons), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 24,650 tons (-450 tons) [7] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The cost - end support for natural rubber may continue, and attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories during the downstream traditional peak season [8] - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. The supply - demand situation may slightly improve, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The cost - end support for cis - butadiene rubber still exists [8]

2、\t2025年10月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷596美元/吨，涨6美元/吨，丁烷572美元/吨，涨6美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4666元/吨，涨49元/吨，丁烷4478元/吨，涨48元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年10月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷589美元/吨，涨6美元/吨，丁烷565美元/吨，涨6美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4611元/吨，涨48元/吨，丁烷4423元/吨，涨48元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） LPG市场近日呈现震荡偏强走势，主力合约切换到PG2510后盘面支撑有所增强。昨日外盘掉期价格继续上涨，提 振到岸价格，对国内市场存在利多，但需要注意进口成本回升后对下游化工需求的影响。现货方面，整体维稳为 主，市场产销平衡，下游库压尚可。目前市场处于下有支撑、但上行驱动有限的状态，可以继续关注海外供应以 及下游需求的边际变化。 液化石油气日报 | 2025-09-04 到岸价延续上涨，市场情绪尚可 市场分析 1、\t9月3日地区价格：山东市场，4550-4610；东北市场，3910-4260；华北市场，4000-4650；华东市场，4450-4550； 沿江市 ...

1. Market News and Key Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main propylene contract was 6,415 yuan/ton (+10), the spot price in East China was 6,575 yuan/ton (+0), and the spot price in North China was 6,630 yuan/ton (-5). The basis in East China was 160 yuan/ton (-10), and the basis in North China was 215 yuan/ton (-15). The propylene operating rate was 75% (-1%), the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha was 190 US dollars/ton (-4), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR was 89 US dollars/ton (-10), the import profit was -159 yuan/ton (+25), and the in-plant inventory was 39,110 tons (-1,210) [1]. - Propylene downstream: The operating rate of PP powder was 41% (+1.22%), and the production profit was -260 yuan/ton (+5); the operating rate of propylene oxide was 73% (-1%), and the production profit was -120 yuan/ton (-62); the operating rate of n-butanol was 87% (-2%), and the production profit was -123 yuan/ton (+3); the operating rate of octanol was 94% (+2%), and the production profit was 154 yuan/ton (-47); the operating rate of acrylic acid was 69% (-1%), and the production profit was 157 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of acrylonitrile was 74% (+1%), and the production profit was -682 yuan/ton (+30); the operating rate of phenol-ketone was 76% (-2%), and the production profit was -539 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 2. Market Analysis Supply side - Regarding the main PDH units, Hebei Haiwei's 500,000-ton unit was under maintenance, Wanhua Penglai had a restart expectation recently, Shandong Zhenhua's PDH restart was postponed, and Qingdao Jinneng's maintenance continued. The PDH operating rate decreased month-on-month, and the external supply of propylene tightened, which supported the price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the continuous maintenance of the units [2]. Demand side - The operating rates of propylene downstream industries showed a mixed trend. The operating rate of PP increased month-on-month, mainly due to the support from the demand for PP downstream packaging films, injection molding, etc.; the operating rate of octanol continued to rise significantly, while the operating rates of n-butanol, PO, and phenol-ketone declined significantly. The downstream demand showed a slight recovery in the short term, but the overall profit of downstream products was average. The increase in the propylene spot price compressed the downstream profit, and the purchasing enthusiasm of some downstream industries weakened, suppressing the upward space of propylene. Attention should be paid to the stocking demand as the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches [2]. Cost side - OPEC+ has a production increase expectation, and the crude oil price may decline; the Saudi CP propane price in September was 520 US dollars/ton, unchanged month-on-month, and the landed price of the overseas propane swap also has a decline expectation [2]. 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; The expected tightening of PDH propylene supply supports the price, but the downstream profit is under pressure and may lack follow-up strength [2]. - Inter - period: None [2]. - Inter - variety: None [2]. 4. Report Catalog Summary I. Propylene Basis Structure - It includes figures such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [6][9][11]. II. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves figures like the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and the capacity utilization rate of the main crude oil refineries [17][25][32]. III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - It contains figures such as the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39]. IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes figures of the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - ketone [42][44][47]. V. Propylene Inventory - It involves figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [68].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-04 政策预期影响较大，多晶硅盘面偏强运行 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-09-03，工业硅期货价格震荡运行，主力合约2511开于8520元/吨，最后收于8490元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-25） 元/吨，变化（-0.29）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓279742手，2025-09-03仓单总数为50348手，较前一日变化 319手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9000-9200（0）元/吨；421#硅在9300-9500 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8400-8600（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8400-8600（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价也暂稳。97硅价格同样持稳。 根据SMM数据，2025年8月份工业硅产量在38.6万吨，环比增幅14%同比减少19%。2025年1-8月工业硅累计产量同 比减少20%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10500-10800（-50）元/吨。SMM报道，目前下游采购因终端需求无改善， 更偏向于谨慎，导致单体厂整体接单情况不理想，仍维持让利接 ...