流动性日报 | 2026-02-13 市场流动性概况 2026-02-12，股指板块成交5753.46亿元，较上一交易日变动+13.82%；持仓金额16221.55亿元，较上一交易日变动 +1.54%；成交持仓比为34.89%。 国债板块成交4768.56亿元，较上一交易日变动-7.15%；持仓金额9432.71亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.56%；成交持 仓比为47.73%。 基本金属板块成交5024.98亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.98%；持仓金额6499.11亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.45%；成 交持仓比为79.58%。 贵金属板块成交7112.60亿元，较上一交易日变动+9.96%；持仓金额5091.65亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.41%；成交 持仓比为170.09%。 | 一、板块流动性 4 | | --- | | 二、股指板块 5 | | 三、国债板块 6 | | 四、基本金属与贵金属（金属板块） 7 | | 五、能源化工板块 8 | | 六、农产品板块 9 | | 七、黑色建材板块 10 | 能源化工板块成交3614.76亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.39%；持仓金额4673.74亿元，较上一交易 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastic futures market is in a range - bound oscillation. The geopolitical risk premium has boosted oil prices, strengthening the cost support for plastics. However, the fundamentals of plastics are weak, with strong supply and weak demand, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the upper - middle reaches after the holiday. For PP, the cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation and macro guidance during the off - season [4][5]. - The strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading, no operation for inter - period trading, and a cautious shorting of the L - PP spread when it is high [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,734 yuan/ton (-53), and that of the PP main contract is 6,648 yuan/ton (-45). The spot prices and basis of different regions and varieties have also changed [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 87.3% (+1.4%), and the PP operating rate is 75.9% (+2.0%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is -211.6 yuan/ton (-46.4), and the PP oil - based production profit is -471.6 yuan/ton (-46.4). The PDH - based PP production profit is -546.4 yuan/ton (-29.4) [2]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is -109.0 yuan/ton (-2.3), the PP import profit is -253.8 yuan/ton (-2.4), and the PP export profit is -53.7 US dollars/ton (+10.3) [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 24.7% (-5.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 20.3% (-18.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 27.9% (-8.9%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.3% (-4.3%) [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. The supply pressure remains high due to the high operating rate and more imported resources. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory in the upper - middle reaches may accumulate after the holiday [4]. - **PP**: The cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak. The supply pressure is acceptable in the short - term, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory accumulation situation should be concerned [5]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the oil price and raw material propane are strong, providing cost support, and the short - term futures market will oscillate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [6]. - **Inter - period**: No operation [6]. - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously short the L - PP spread when it is high [6].

果蔬品日报 | 2026-02-13 苹果备货进入尾声，红枣市场逐渐闭市 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9739元/吨，较前一日变动+138元/吨，幅度+1.44%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.00元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1739，较前一日变动-138；陕西洛川70# 以 上半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1339，较前一日变动-138。 近期市场资讯，产区节前交易基本收尾，交易较为零星，库内包装发货逐渐减少。目前产地剩余待发货源打包发 货为主，主产区果农货调货有限。目前陕西果农货成交以少量两极货源为主，仍以客商发自存货源为主；甘肃静 庄秦产区多以打包客商货源发货为主，庆阳产区交易有所好转。山东产区成交一般，礼盒发运陆续收尾，少量75# 货源、三级货源出库为主。栖霞80#一二级片红果农货3.2-4.5元/斤，80#统货2.5-3元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农统 货出库价格3.5-4.0元/斤，半商品出库价格4.0-4.3元/斤。甘肃产区静宁果农半商品5-6元/斤，果农一般通货出库 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the bean pulp and corn sectors is neutral [3][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Brazilian soybean supply pressure will suppress the prices of US soybeans and domestic bean pulp. With sufficient domestic supply, the bean pulp price will maintain a volatile trend, and future focus should be on US soybean purchases and the Brazilian harvest [2] - The corn supply this season is not expected to be loose. The current corn price is expected to fluctuate, and future focus should be on spot purchases and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Pulp - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the bean pulp 2605 contract was 2790 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous day. Spot prices in different regions showed varying changes, with Tianjin at 3170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; Jiangsu at 3060 yuan/ton, unchanged; and Guangdong at 3060 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The Argentine Rosario Grain Exchange raised its 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 48 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons [1] - **Market Analysis**: Favorable weather in Brazil is expected to lead to a record soybean output of 181 million tons, which will put pressure on US soybeans and domestic bean pulp prices. Feed enterprises have basically completed their stockpiling, oil mill bean pulp inventories have increased again, and soybean inventories remain high, resulting in sufficient domestic supply and a volatile bean pulp price [2] Corn - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2320 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous day; the corn starch 2603 contract was 2572 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.04%. Spot prices in different regions also had different changes. On February 11, US exporters reported selling 230,560 tons of corn for the 2025/2026 market year [3] - **Market Analysis**: Last season's corn imports were low, and channel inventories were significantly depleted. Although there was a good harvest in Northeast China this season, affected by floods in North China and without the full implementation of substitute grain auctions, the corn supply this season is not expected to be loose. The current corn price is expected to fluctuate, and future focus should be on spot purchases and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4]

策略 谨慎偏空 现货方面：2026-02-12，LME铅现货升水为-48.07美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16575元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 16625元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16575元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至16650元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至 9850元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至9975元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10200元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-12，沪铅主力合约开于16800元/吨，收于16695元/吨，较前一交易日变化-45元/吨，全天交易日 成交29928手，较前一交易日变化-48手，全天交易日持仓32162手，手较前一交易日变化-5898手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16805元/吨，最低点达到16685元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主力合约开于16700元/吨，收于16705元/吨，较 昨日午后收盘下降0.30 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The supply and demand of steel are both weakening, and steel prices are fluctuating. Glass and soda ash are experiencing range - bound oscillations due to pre - holiday cautious sentiment. For double silicon, the market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode as the Spring Festival approaches [1][3] - Glass market fundamentals have no obvious improvement. Although the expected production halt in Shahe eases supply pressure, pre - holiday demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Soda ash supply is abundant with new production projects advancing, and pre - holiday demand is seasonally low [1] - The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved slightly with expected increase in iron - water production, but inventory pressure remains high. The fundamentals of silicon iron are controllable, and demand is expected to improve marginally as steel mills resume production, but overall over - capacity restricts price increases [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass contracts showed narrow - range fluctuations yesterday, with decreasing positions as the holiday nears. Spot prices are stable, but trading volume is low. This week, cold - repair of production lines increased, daily melting volume dropped, and inventory rose. Soda ash contracts also had narrow - range fluctuations, with low spot trading volume. This week, soda ash production increased slightly, heavy - ash inventory rose slightly, and light - ash inventory decreased [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass fundamentals have no significant improvement. The expected production halt in Shahe eases supply pressure, but pre - holiday demand is weak, and inventory accumulation continues. Soda ash supply is in a loose pattern. With new production projects advancing, production remains high, and inventory is increasing. Pre - holiday demand drops seasonally, and the new production projects need to be monitored [1] Strategy - Glass: Range - bound fluctuations; Soda ash: Range - bound fluctuations; No strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [2] Double Silicon Market Analysis - Silicon manganese futures continued to fluctuate slightly, and the market was quiet with a strong holiday atmosphere. The price of 6517 silicon manganese is 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton in the northern market and 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton in the southern market. Silicon iron futures followed the overall black - metal market downwards, and the spot market was weak. Most of the market is in a wait - and - see mode. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon manganese fundamentals have improved slightly, and iron - water production is expected to increase, leading to marginal improvement in demand. However, inventory pressure is still high. The South African tariff policy may increase manganese ore costs. Silicon iron fundamentals are controllable. Enterprises are reducing production, and demand is expected to improve as steel mills resume production. But overall over - capacity restricts price increases, and inventory reduction and power - price policies need to be monitored [3] Strategy - Silicon manganese: Range - bound fluctuations; Silicon iron: Range - bound fluctuations [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. Factors influencing the market include the stock market rally, the broad - money signal released by the Political Bureau meeting, the unchanged LPR, the continued expectation of Fed rate cuts, and increased uncertainty in global trade which adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.20%, while China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.40% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan and a rate of 0.47%. M2 year - on - year is 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a rate of 6.25%. Manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a rate of - 1.60% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 96.91, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.01%. The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.8968, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.003 and a rate of - 0.05%. SHIBOR 7 days is 1.52, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.33%. DR007 is 1.53, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a rate of - 0.85%. R007 is 1.56, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.12 and a rate of - 6.95%. The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a rate of 0.00%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a rate of 0.00% [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the treasury bond issuance [14][17][21][24]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local government bond issuance [28][31]. IV. Spread Overview No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the inter - period spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [30][36][38]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [40][42][47]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [48][50][51]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield and the maturity yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [52][53][54]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield and the maturity yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [58][61][64]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: As the repurchase interest rate declines, the price of treasury bond futures oscillates [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core View - Trump's military pressure on Iran is likely a threat to force concessions in negotiations rather than a real intention to start a war. The probability of a military strike has significantly decreased compared to the beginning of the year. If an agreement is reached between the US and Iran, the threat to the Strait of Hormuz will be eliminated, and oil prices will return to being driven by fundamentals [2] Summary by Relevant Content Market News and Key Data - WTI March crude oil futures closed down $1.79, or 2.77%, at $62.84 per barrel; Brent April crude oil futures closed down $1.88, or 2.71%, at $67.52 per barrel [1] - On February 12, the Kremlin proposed to "re - embrace the US dollar" as part of building a broad economic partnership with the Trump administration. The proposal involves potential cooperation in fossil energy investment and could reshape the global financial landscape [1] - On February 12, the IEA lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 850,000 barrels per day from 930,000 barrels per day in January. OPEC's research department predicts a 1.38 - million - barrel - per - day increase in 2026 oil demand [1] - Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Iran in about a month and warns of "very serious" consequences if no agreement is reached. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu questions the enforceability of the agreement [1] Investment Logic - Trump's military pressure on Iran is a negotiation tactic. Due to the mid - term election pressure, the cost of attacking Iran is high, and the probability of a military strike has decreased. If an agreement is reached, oil prices will be driven by fundamentals [2] Strategy - Short - term: oil prices will fluctuate within a range. Due to high uncertainty in the Iran situation, risk prevention is necessary. Medium - term: short - position allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: Sanctioned oil turning into compliant oil and macro black - swan events - Upside risks: Tightening supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The pre - holiday freight rate drive is weak, and the near - term 04 contract is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to whether the shipping companies' price - holding measures are implemented after the holiday. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm and the pricing strategies of shipping companies. It is necessary to monitor whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be firmer than in normal years. The 04 contract's volatility is expected to increase, and investors are advised to participate with caution. Shipping companies usually issue price - increase letters in March and April to stabilize prices. As of now, it is still unclear whether the price increase in March will succeed. If the price increase is successful in early March, the valuation bottom of the EC2604 contract may rise. The long - term contracts face intense speculation on the resumption time, and the volatility is expected to remain high. The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. If it does not resume in the first half of 2026, the pressure on the shipping capacity in the first half of the year will be relatively controllable, and higher freight rates can be expected. Investors can consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of February 12, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 54,481.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 42,518.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1258.90, 1566.10, 1632.00, 1131.10, and 1425.40 respectively [8]. II. Spot Prices - On February 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1403 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 1801 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2530 US dollars/FEU. On February 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1657.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1155.66 points [8]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU have been delivered in 2026. Among them, 2 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, 737,400 TEU (50 ships) are expected to be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) are expected to be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and only 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU will be delivered in the first half of 2026 [3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: In the remaining three weeks of February, the average weekly capacity is 271,600 TEU, with capacities of 366,600 TEU, 259,800 TEU, and 188,300 TEU in Weeks 7, 8, and 9 respectively. In March, the average weekly capacity is 288,400 TEU, with capacities of 158,300 TEU, 365,200 TEU, 304,700 TEU, 320,400 TEU, and 293,500 TEU in Weeks 10 - 14 respectively. In April, the average weekly capacity is 274,700 TEU, with capacities of 295,500 TEU, 294,400 TEU, 263,500 TEU, and 245,400 TEU in Weeks 15 - 18 respectively. There are 13 blank sailings in February (6 by the OA Alliance, 6 by the PA Alliance, and 1 by the Gemini Alliance), 7 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March, and 1 blank sailing and 4 TBNs in April [4]. IV. Supply Chain - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. COSCO management indicates that there is still no clear schedule for the full resumption of the Red Sea route. It may take 3 - 5 months from the attempt to full resumption. Multiple conditions need to be met for the resumption of the Red Sea route, including industry association assessment, insurance premium reduction, customer recognition of safety, and internal consensus within the alliance. Currently, the detour has become the new normal for the customer supply chain, and COSCO is cautious about returning to the Red Sea. Since mid - February 2026, Maersk's ME11 route will be structurally adjusted to transit through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. If possible, Maersk will also adjust the AE12 and AE15 services in the subsequent stage to pass through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal [7]. V. Demand and European Economy No specific content related to demand and European economy is provided in the given text other than the figures mentioned in the catalog.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean futures market continued its upward trend, but the spot market had limited price adjustments due to the near - halt of trading activities and cautious market sentiment. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with most enterprises waiting to see the post - holiday market. Traders are generally confident about the post - holiday market, and the bullish sentiment is expected to continue due to potential post - holiday restocking demand and tight supply [1][2] - The peanut futures market declined slightly. As the Spring Festival approaches, the peanut market in major producing areas has basically stopped supplying, and most processing enterprises have shut down. The peanut market is expected to remain stable before the festival [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Content Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the Douyi 2605 contract was 4613.00 yuan/ton, up 94.00 yuan/ton or 2.08% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A05 - 13, down 94 or 32.14% from the previous day. The prices of national standard first - class soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang remained unchanged [1] - Market Information: The grassroots quotations in the Northeast market have basically stopped, and the market has entered the pre - Spring Festival shutdown state. Traders are confident about the post - holiday market, and enterprises are expected to restock after the festival [1] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7946.00 yuan/ton, down 24.00 yuan/ton or 0.30% from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8018.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was PK03 - 1146.00, up 24.00 or - 2.05% from the previous day. The prices of peanuts in different regions and varieties were basically stable [3] - Market Information: As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of peanuts in major producing areas has basically stopped, most processing enterprises have shut down, and the arrival volume of peanuts is extremely limited. The pre - holiday stocking of food processing plants and wholesale markets has also ended [4] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [6]