航运日报 | 2025-09-05 运价中枢继续下移，HMM价格下修至1700美元/FEU 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹37周价格开出为1175/1970，38周价格1040/1740；HPL -SPOT 9月上半月 船期报价1085/1735，9月下半月价格1085/1735，10月上半月价格1085/1735。马士基远东-北欧地区PSS降为50/100. MSC公布中国黄金周假期空班。亚洲-北欧航线39周 SWAN以及BRITANNIA空班，40周ALBATROS以及 BRITANNIA航次空班，上述四个航次初步涉及运力大致5.9万TEU。双子星联盟同样公布中国黄金周假期空班， 亚洲-北欧航线41周AE1航线空班。中国-欧基港9月份月度剩余周均运力30.51万TEU，WEEK37/38/39周运力分别为 30.7/27.7/33.1万TEU；10月份月度周均运力27.6万TEU，WEEK40/41/42/43/44周运力分别32.7/19.9/25.7/29.8/29.5万 TEU。9月份共计3个空班（均在37周，OA联盟两个空班，PA联盟一个空班）， ...

市场流动性概况 2025-09-04，股指板块成交11625.02亿元，较上一交易日变动+11.23%；持仓金额13783.15亿元，较上一交易日变动 +1.32%；成交持仓比为83.01%。 国债板块成交4110.39亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.73%；持仓金额7070.72亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.07%；成交持 仓比为58.81%。 基本金属板块成交3357.34亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.29%；持仓金额5057.88亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.80%；成 交持仓比为82.88%。 贵金属板块成交6154.32亿元，较上一交易日变动+21.98%；持仓金额4838.43亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.11%；成 交持仓比为157.47%。 能源化工板块成交4828.15亿元，较上一交易日变动+17.67%；持仓金额4317.91亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.81%； 成交持仓比为83.46%。 农产品板块成交3185.03亿元，较上一交易日变动+6.76%；持仓金额5424.82亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.09%；成交 持仓比为53.90%。 流动性日报 | 2025-09-05 | 图1：各板块成交持仓 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-09-05 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6392元/吨（-23），丙烯华东现货价6575元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6605元/吨（-25）， 丙烯华东基差183元/吨（+23），丙烯华北基差213元/吨（-2）。丙烯开工率75%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR185美元/吨（-5），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR80美元/吨（-10），进口利润-167元/吨（-8），厂内库存39110吨（-1210）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率37%（-3.47%），生产利润-235元/吨（+25）；环氧丙烷开工率74%（+1%），生产利润-315 元/吨（+161）；正丁醇开工率86%（-1%），生产利润-107元/吨（+16）；辛醇开工率95%（+1%），生产利润122元/ 吨（-32）；丙烯酸开工率69%（+0%），生产利润157元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率73%（-1%），生产利润-568元/吨（+114）； 酚酮开工率75%（-1%），生产利润-447元/吨（+92）。 市场分析 供应端，丙烯整体开工变化不大，主力PDH装置情况来看，河北海伟、万华蓬莱近 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is affected by the military parade's production restrictions. After the parade, steel mills are resuming production, but demand has not significantly improved, and finished products continue to accumulate inventory. The short - term outlook is weak, and attention should be paid to blast furnace resumption and demand performance [1]. - The iron ore supply has increased, and the demand (daily hot metal production) has decreased due to the military parade's production restrictions. Steel mills are resuming production, and it is expected that hot metal production will recover next week. The supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited, and attention should be paid to the impact of floating cargo volume on arrivals, as well as iron ore shipments and hot metal changes [3]. - The supply of coking coal and coke is becoming more abundant, and the market is in a state of shock. For coking coal, the market sentiment is bearish due to factors such as coking profit compression and weakening thermal coal prices. For coke, the fundamentals are weakening due to the decline in steel mill profits, and attention should be paid to the impact of coal over - production inspections in September and the demand for finished products in the peak season [5][6]. - The supply of thermal coal is gradually recovering, and the price is oscillating. In the short term, the price is weakening, and in the long - term, the supply is still abundant. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and replenishment [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, the futures price of rebar was 3117 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil was 3313 yuan/ton. The spot steel transaction was good, with the national construction steel trading volume reaching 101,000 tons, a daily increase of 22.87%. Affected by the military parade's production restrictions in Hebei, the production of rolled plates has decreased significantly. After the parade, steel mills are resuming production, but demand has not improved, and finished products continue to accumulate inventory [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options) are not available [2]. Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, the futures price of iron ore oscillated upwards, with the main 2601 contract closing at 791.5 yuan/ton, a 1.87% increase. The price of imported iron ore in Tangshan Port increased slightly. The total transaction volume of iron ore in major ports across the country was 905,000 tons, a 4.75% increase from the previous day. The forward spot transaction volume was 1.748 million tons, a 74.80% increase. The supply has increased, the demand (hot metal production) has decreased due to production restrictions, and steel mills are resuming production. The port inventory has increased and is at a medium level [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating; Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options) are not available [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, the futures of coking coal and coke oscillated. After the military parade, both supply and demand are in the resumption stage, and the market supply is becoming more abundant. The supply of coking coal in the production area will gradually recover, and the bearish sentiment is strong. The number of customs - cleared vehicles for imported Mongolian coal has increased, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to 910 - 930 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillating; Coke: Oscillating; Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options) are not available [7]. Thermal Coal Market Analysis - The price of thermal coal in the production area is oscillating. The supply in the production area is gradually recovering, the daily consumption of power coal has decreased, and the price is oscillating weakly in the short term. The supply is abundant in the long term. The port market is weak, and the import market is also lackluster [8]. Strategy - No strategy provided [9].

蔡劭立 F3063489 Z0014617 联系人： 朱思谋 F03142856 — 量价和政策信号— 2 【量价观察】美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率下行 警惕人民币升值风险 华泰期货研究院 2025年09月05日 ◆3个月的美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率曲线显示出人民币的升值趋势，Put端波动率高于Call端。 美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率 Delta为5的美元兑人民币3个月期权隐含波动率 数据来源： 3 Bloomberg Wind 华泰期货研究院 3 4 5 6 7 8 3M 2025/09/04 3M 2025/06/27 3M 2025/03/28 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2023-09 2024-03 2024-09 2025-03 2025-09 20250903（%） 20250827（%） 20250806（%） (0.5) 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 一月 三月 六月 一年 本周新交所美元兑人民币期货升贴水(-) 本周银行远期升贴水(-) 本周美中利差 (0.5) 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 一月 三月 六月 一年 上周新交所美元兑人民币期货升贴水(-) 上周银行远期 ...

康远宁 0755-23991175 kangyuanning@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3049404 投资咨询号：Z0015842 期货研究报告|能源专题报告 2025-09-04 印尼生物燃料市场展望 研究院 能源化工组 研究员 潘翔 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 内容摘要 ■ 产业分析：分化发展，各存挑战 生物柴油是当前增长主力，需求随掺混比例提升而增长，出口重心逐步转向国内市场， 但长期面临原料缺口、产能不足及技术风险，B50 计划落地存在不确定性。SAF 尚处起 步阶段，依托航空业复苏与政策推动需求快速增长，芝拉扎项目已实现初步商业化， 但仍存在原料收集和技术合规等问题。燃料乙醇发展相对滞后，E5 试点覆盖有限，糖 蜜原料与食品、出口竞争激烈，产能不足且经济性差，短期难以突破供应瓶颈。 ■ 未来展望：四大关键挑战与机遇 未来印尼生物燃料产业的发展需重点关注四方面：其一，B50 计划能否按时落地，亟 需突破技术适配、原料保障与资金缺口问题；其二，燃料乙醇能否解决原料、产能不 足和经济性差的瓶颈；其三，SAF 能否完善原料收集体系和基础设施，推动规模化产 能释放；其四，能否 ...

Industry Overview Upstream - International crude oil prices are fluctuating at a low level, and PTA prices are falling [2] Midstream - PX operating rate is increasing, and coal consumption of power plants is decreasing [3] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities are picking up, and the number of international flights is declining [4] Zhongguan Event Overview Production Industry - In the first half of 2025, BYD led in terms of revenue and net profit among listed car companies, while GAC Group's data were at the bottom and it turned from profit to loss. Many car companies saw revenue growth, with BYD and Geely hitting record highs, but only BYD maintained profit growth, and its automotive gross margin dropped by two percentage points [1] - The Ministry of Commerce ruled that US optical fiber producers and exporters circumvented anti - dumping measures on non - dispersion - shifted single - mode optical fibers from the US by changing trade patterns [1] Service Industry - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China held a meeting, affirming the achievements since its establishment last year and discussing topics such as financial market operation, government bond issuance management, etc. They believe that the coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies provide support for the economy [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 2302.9 | 0.00% | | | Spot price: Eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/3 | | | | | Spot price: Palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 9492.0 | - 0.77% | | | Spot price: Cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 15460.2 | 0.82% | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/3 | 20.0 | 0.60% | | | Spot price: Copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 80360.0 | 0.97% | | | Spot price: Zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 22220.0 | - 0.20% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 20743.3 | - 0.22% | | | Spot price: Nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 123333.3 | 1.12% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 16825.0 | - 0.07% | | | Spot price: Rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 3154.5 | - 2.67% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price: Iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 782.3 | - 0.92% | | | Spot price: Wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 3322.5 | - 1.99% | | | Spot price: Glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 9/3 | 13.9 | 0.00% | | Non - metals | Spot price: Natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 15050.0 | 0.95% | | | China Plastics City price index | Daily | - | 9/3 | 802.4 | - 0.18% | | Energy | Spot price: WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 9/3 | 65.6 | 3.70% | | | Spot price: Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 9/3 | 69.1 | 2.86% | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 3892.0 | - 1.32% | | | Coal price: Coal | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 782.0 | - 0.13% | | Chemical industry | Spot price: PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 4749.5 | - 3.34% | | | Spot price: Polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 7425.0 | - 0.36% | | | Spot price: Urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 1712.5 | 0.29% | | | Spot price: Soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/3 | 1262.5 | - 2.13% | | Real estate | Cement price index: National | Daily | - | 9/3 | 129.3 | - 0.55% | | | Building materials composite index | Daily | Points | 9/3 | 113.1 | - 1.53% | | | Concrete price index: National index | Daily | Points | 9/3 | 92.9 | - 0.14% | [38]

FICC日报 | 2025-09-04 全球债市承压，金价延续强势格局 市场分析 8月海外通胀上升迹象初显。全球7月的经济数据仍有韧性：中国7月官方制造业PMI回落至49.3，非制造业保持扩 张；中国7月按美元计出口同比增长7.2%，高于预期，主要受去年低基数和"抢出口"效应支撑；金融数据中，货币 供给超预期，但融资和贷款数据仍弱；经济数据中，投资数据仍有明显压力，国内月频经济数据仍有压力。国务 院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势，培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资。 中共中央、国务院印发关于推动城市高质量发展的意见。意见提出，发展组团式、网络化的现代化城市群和都市 圈，持续推动城镇老旧小区改造。商务部宣布，将于9月出台扩大服务消费的若干政策措施。中国8月官方制造业 PMI小幅回升至49.4，新订单指数升至49.5，非制造业加速扩张。9月3日上午，纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法 西斯战争胜利80周年大会在北京天安门广场隆重举行。A股市场全天震荡分化，三大指数涨跌互现，个股呈现普跌 态势，黄金股延续强势。近期，股指的IC和IM期货基差有所走阔，关注后续基差变化及风险。美国方面，8月IS ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Market Analysis** - **Macro Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, with a short - term downturn. For major global debtors, the expansion of US fiscal spending means the economic aggregate is entering an expansion cycle, but the expansion rhythm is uncertain. If fiscal spending is faster than economic downward pressure, it is "preventive"; otherwise, the risk of a short - term downward cycle increases [2]. - **Price Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, and price resilience needs to be eliminated. The "inflation - deflation" relationship between the two major global economies depends on the distribution of the production and consumption systems. In the context of the China - US game, the spill - over effect of US fiscal expansion on China will weaken, promoting the establishment of China's domestic "internal - cycle" debt - consumption system. Before the new cycle starts in October, the "inflation - deflation" contradiction may intensify in the short term [2]. - **Policy Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, and there is a policy window period. From the perspective of the US dollar cycle, the liquidity expansion (liabilities) driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle requires corresponding financial market pools (assets). For the US financial sector, the leverage will be released in October, and China's fiscal policy also needs further guidance from the Fourth Plenary Session in October. In September, the Fed's policy easing may face a macro - reality of "lack of assets" or even "asset shocks" [2]. - **Strategy** - **Strategic**: The macro - strategy maintains a positive right - side judgment. Both the US and China have released clear fiscal expansion signals, driving macro - allocation to turn positive. However, the rhythm of policy release is uncertain, causing short - term disturbances. Short - term market adjustments may provide space for medium - term asset allocation [3]. - **Tactical**: In September, maintain a low - risk allocation and hold volatility - hedging positions, actively waiting for the market low point. In the short term, market pressure may continue to flatten the yield curve [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Economic Status: Supply - Driven Improvement in Prosperity - The short - term pressure has eased according to the Huatai Macro Heat Tracking. International trade activities have improved due to tariff relaxation, and short - term production activity repairs have driven the improvement of macro - prosperity. However, the internal consumption demand of major economies is still below the "water level" [7]. Price Factors: Attention to Japan's Inflation Resilience - Prices have stabilized in the short term. The inflation heat value in August was - 0.64, a month - on - month increase of 0.06 percentage points. The US inflation data in August showed certain resilience, but the Fed has downplayed the consideration of inflation in its policy framework, shifting the focus to the labor market. Globally, Japan's inflation resilience is worthy of attention, which may drive its monetary policy to remain relatively tight and put further pressure on Asian currency liquidity [13]. Policy Conditions: Short - Term Pressure May Increase - **External**: US economic policies have shifted from uncertainty to certainty. In September, there is a risk of increased market volatility during the policy transition period. The passage of the "Great Beauty Act" in July means that US fiscal expectations have shifted from contraction to expansion, with uncertainty only in the impact of the spending implementation rhythm on US Treasury supply. The Fed's relatively dovish monetary policy statement in late August and the implementation of a large - bank leverage - increasing policy in late August (effective in October) have increased the demand for US Treasuries in a context of loose Fed liquidity [19]. - **Internal**: The macro - policy has shifted to a self - centered approach, waiting for the implementation of relevant fiscal and monetary policies in October. The second - quarter monetary policy implementation report in mid - August shows that the monetary policy remains loose, with the focus on promoting a reasonable recovery of prices. However, the central bank has strengthened the policy requirement of "preventing capital idling" in the short term, which may cause short - term disturbances to the capital flow. Considering the external policy transition and the resulting increase in market uncertainty, market volatility may rise in September [19].

流动性日报 | 2025-09-04 市场流动性概况 2025-09-03，股指板块成交10451.34亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.16%；持仓金额13603.55亿元，较上一交易日变动 -3.78%；成交持仓比为76.16%。 国债板块成交4269.63亿元，较上一交易日变动+30.96%；持仓金额6995.76亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.37%；成交 持仓比为62.84%。 基本金属板块成交3347.79亿元，较上一交易日变动-7.60%；持仓金额5098.59亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.59%；成 交持仓比为72.00%。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 流动性日报 | 一、板块流动性 4 | | --- | | 二、股指板块 5 | | 三、国债板块 6 | | 四、基本金属与贵金属（金属板块） 7 | | 五、能源化工板块 8 | | 六、农产品板块 9 | | 七、黑色建材板块 10 | 贵金属板块成交5045.43亿元，较上一交易日变动+25.87%；持仓金额4843.77亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.37%；成 交持仓比为119.58%。 能源化工板块成交 ...