1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene: Overseas gasoline supply is gradually recovering, leading to high short - term arrival pressure of pure benzene and a faster accumulation rate of port inventory. Domestic cracking load is low, and pure benzene production has declined. Downstream production is in the off - season and has further decreased, with styrene maintaining low - load maintenance, CPL production dropping to the lowest level of the year, phenol production rising, and aniline and adipic acid production fluctuating within a range [2] - Styrene: Styrene is still in the low - production maintenance stage, and the restart plan has been postponed. The port basis has strengthened slightly again, and factory inventory has declined again, but port inventory has not continued to be destocked, and there is still arrival pressure. Downstream enterprise procurement has driven the basis to strengthen. The downstream production shows differentiation. EPS production has a slight rebound in the off - season, but there is still inventory pressure; ABS production has decreased due to continuous finished - product inventory pressure; PS production has continued to rise since the end of the year as the finished - product inventory pressure has been alleviated [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The report presents figures related to the basis of pure benzene and EB, including the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread, EB main contract basis, and EB continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [7][12][16] 3.2 Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Figures cover various aspects such as naphtha processing fees, pure benzene FOB South Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, styrene non - integrated device production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea spread, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, pure benzene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread, pure benzene import profit, and styrene import profit [19][21][29] 3.3 Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Production Rate - For pure benzene, it shows the inventory in East China ports and the production rate. For styrene, it includes the inventory in East China ports, East China commercial inventory, factory inventory, and the production rate [35][40][41] 3.4 Styrene Downstream Production and Production Profits - Covers the production rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [46][47][51] 3.5 Pure Benzene Downstream Production and Production Profits - Includes the production rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, and other downstream products, as well as the production profits of related products such as PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [55][62][70] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy [3] - Basis and inter - period: Consider a positive inter - period spread arbitrage for EB2601 - EB2602 when the price is low [3] - Cross - variety: Consider widening the spread for EB2601 - BZ2603 when the price is low [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][5][8] Report's Core View - Cotton prices are expected to continue range - bound in the short - term and are expected to be optimistic after seasonal pressure in the long - term. Sugar prices have a downward fundamental drive in the short - term with limited further decline and potential for a weak rebound, and may be unoptimistic in the long - term. Pulp prices have limited upside space due to unimproved supply - demand [3][5][8] Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,790 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.07%) from the previous day. Spot: 3128B cotton in Xinjiang had a factory price of 14,854 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,998 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton [1] - As of November 30, 2025/26, Pakistan's new - season seed cotton equivalent to lint was about 796,000 tons, down 1.1% year - on - year. Domestic mills bought about 666,000 tons, exported about 27,000 tons, and the unsold inventory was about 103,000 tons [1] Sugar - Futures: Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5328 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-0.71%) from the previous day. Spot: In Nanning, Guangxi, the price was 5430 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5380 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [4] - As of November 30, 2025, 10 sugar mills in the province had started production (5 last year). 439,400 tons of sugarcane were crushed, producing 44,800 tons of sugar. The sales volume was 32,200 tons, with an inventory of 12,600 tons [4] Pulp - Futures: Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5496 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton (+0.70%) from the previous day. Spot: In Shandong, the price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp was 5525 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [6] - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market continued to rise, with a slow market transaction [6] Market Analysis Cotton - Internationally, USDA raised the 2025/26 global cotton production significantly, while consumption increased slightly. End - of - season inventory rose and is in a stock - building phase. US cotton has increased sales pressure. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure; in the long - term, it has limited downward space but unclear upward drive [2] - Domestically, 2025/26 is expected to see increased cotton production. The supply is abundant in the short - term, and the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton will be restricted by hedging. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the downward space of the futures is also limited [2] Sugar - For raw sugar, Brazil's strong supply and India's expected production rebound have put pressure on the market. In the short - term, the downward space is limited; in the long - term, the rebound momentum is restricted [5] - For Zhengzhou sugar, the high import volume and the start of sugar mills in Guangxi have increased the short - term supply pressure [5] Pulp - In terms of supply, overseas pulp mills have announced shutdowns and production cuts. In terms of demand, European port inventory has decreased, but the domestic terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is at a historical high [7] Strategy Cotton - Neutral. Expect range - bound in the short - term. Be optimistic about cotton prices after seasonal pressure in the long - term [3] Sugar - Neutral. The short - term downward space is limited, with potential for a weak rebound. The long - term outlook is not optimistic [5] Pulp - Neutral. The upward space is limited due to unimproved supply - demand. Attention should be paid to the impact of remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the market [8]

绝对价格上涨抑制下游采购需求 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-05 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价22020元/吨，较上一交易日变化220元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-60元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价21890元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-190元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21900元/吨，较上一交易日变化210元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-180元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-04日沪铝主力合约开于21935元/吨，收于22060元/吨，较上一交易日变化165元/吨，最 高价达22220元/吨，最低价达到21925元/吨。全天交易日成交246366手，全天交易日持仓244457手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-04，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.6万吨，较上一期变化0.0万吨，仓单库存66833 吨，较上一交易日变化0吨，LME铝库存530900吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-04SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2810元/吨，山东价格录得2760元/吨，河南价格录得 284 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-12-05 美国就业数据趋弱 哈塞特再次放鸽 市场分析 就业市场方面，美国上周初请失业金人数意外减少2.7万人至19.1万人，为2022年9月以来的最低水平。另据美国私 人数据提供商Revelio Labs，美国11月非农就业减少9000个，同时10月数据下修至减少1.55万个。另外，美国挑战 者企业11月裁员7.1万人，同比增24%，今年累计裁员人数攀升至117万。降息节奏方面，美国 白宫国家经济委员 会主任哈塞特表示，实际工资增长现在高于通胀；可能会在下一次美联储会议上看到降息，将降息25个基点左右。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-12-04，沪金主力合约开于958.00元/克，收于953.42元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.34%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于954.50元/克，收于958.46元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.53%。 2025-12-04，沪银主力合约开于13691.00元/千克，收于13424.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动-1.16%。当日成交 量为2280887手，持仓量为452403手。昨日夜盘沪银主 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-12-05 液氯价格有支撑，烧碱负荷不减 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4500元/吨（-41）；华东基差-40元/吨（+21）;华南基差-20元/吨（+31）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4460元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4480元/吨（-10）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2905元/吨（+25）；电石利润-25元/吨（+25）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-881元/吨（-33）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-465元/吨（+51）；PVC出口利润-13.8美元/吨（-4.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.3万吨（+0.7）；PVC社会库存52.8万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率82.09%（-0.12%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.92%（+0.80%）；PVC开工率79.01%（+0.16%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量67.0万吨（-0.7）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2140元/吨（-25）；山东32%液碱基差141元/吨（+25）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价730元/吨（+0）；山东5 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis - On December 4, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 93,800 yuan/ton and closed at 93,700 yuan/ton, with a -1.26% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 663,458 lots, and the open interest was 560,629 lots, down from 562,836 lots the previous day. The current basis was 760 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 10,422 lots, a change of 770 lots from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,200 - 95,800 yuan/ton, a change of -350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 90,500 - 92,600 yuan/ton, also a change of -350 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,175 US dollars/ton, a change of -30 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2] - The downstream material factories' inquiry and trading activities are becoming more active. The annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises are still ongoing, with the focus on next year's price coefficient and procurement volume [2] - In December, the domestic lithium carbonate production is expected to continue to grow, with a month - on - month increase of about 3%. In terms of demand, new energy vehicle sales in December are expected to be strong, and the energy storage market will continue to have strong supply and demand with a tight supply situation. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials in December are expected to remain high but decline slightly month - on - month. Overall, lithium carbonate will continue to be destocked in December, but the destocking rate will slow down compared to November [2] - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly production increased by 74 tons to 21,939 tons, the production from spodumene and mica slightly increased, and the production from salt lakes slightly decreased. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,366 tons to 113,602 tons. The inventory in smelters and other links decreased, while the inventory in downstream links increased, and the consumer end still performed well [2] Group 3: Strategy - The market fluctuated widely on the day, inventory continued to be destocked, and consumption provided some support. The resumption of production at the mine end is in progress and is expected to gradually resume. There are significant differences in the consumption forecast for the first quarter, with expected decreases in the power battery segment and high levels in the energy storage segment. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory [3] - For the single - side strategy, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended. There are no strategies for options, inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures operations [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has been declining, with all Treasury bond futures closing down. The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. Influenced by the stock market, along with the continuation of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the increase in global trade uncertainties, the inflow of foreign capital is also uncertain [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Economic indicators (monthly update): The social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.64 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 0.15% growth rate; M2 year - on - year was 8.20%, with a - 2.38% change rate; the manufacturing PMI was 49.20%, with a 0.41% growth rate [10]. - Economic indicators (daily update): The US dollar index was 99.06, with a 0.20% growth rate; the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.0638, with a 0.08% growth rate; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.42, with a - 0.14% change rate; DR007 was 1.44, with a - 0.23% change rate; R007 was 1.51, with a - 1.24% change rate; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.62, with a 1.20% growth rate; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a 1.20% growth rate [10]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts including the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation of funds, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), long - short position ratio (top 20), spread between national development bonds and Treasury bonds, and Treasury bond issuance of Treasury bond futures main contracts [13][14][22]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - The report shows charts of Shibor interest rate trends, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trends, inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local government bond issuance [25][26]. IV. Spread Overview - The report provides charts of the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, such as (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [33][34][36]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [36][37][46]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [48][52]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [55][56]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [62][68]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral strategy: As the repurchase rate declines, the price of Treasury bond futures falls [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

服务行业：1）商务部发言人何亚东4日在商务部例行新闻发布会上表示，岁末年初是传统的消费旺季，商务部将 坚持惠民生和促消费紧密结合，扩大优质商品和服务供给，创新消费场景，更好地满足人民美好生活需要。何亚 东介绍，商务部将加快推进消费新业态、新模式、新场景试点和国际化消费环境建设工作，打造更加舒适便捷的 消费环境。2）12月2日，《外卖平台服务管理基本要求》国家标准发布实施。针对社会广泛关注的外卖平台非理性 竞争，标准提出外卖平台开展价格促销时不能扰乱市场价格认知与正常秩序。标准除直接限制非理性竞争行为外， 还通过提高外卖餐品质量、在算法中为配送员"降速"以及加强消费者权益保护等多个方面形成系统性合力，促进 外卖行业市场竞争回归理性。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 宏观日报 | 2025-12-05 上游：1）有色：铜价格回升较多。2）能源：液化天然气价格下行。3）化工：尿素价格回落。 关注下游年末促销进展 中观事件总览 生产行业：中国自主研发CPU发布。 1）4日下午，商务部新闻发言人就开展稀土相关物项出口管制进行了回应。 商务部新闻发言人何亚东：中国政府依法依规开展稀土相关物项的出口管制工作 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The nickel market has a supply surplus and high inventories, so nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The stainless - steel market has low demand, high inventories, and a declining cost center, and stainless - steel is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On December 4, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 117,870 yuan/ton and closed at 117,760 yuan/ton, a change of 0.13% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 103,322 (-9,126) lots, and the open interest was 118,041 (-577) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a weak oscillation trend. After the recent macro - sentiment market ended, the fundamentals remained in a surplus situation, and the nickel price entered a narrow oscillation range [1] - The nickel ore market remained calm, and the prices were weakly stable. The market was basically in a situation of having prices but no goods, waiting for new tenders from mines. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders. Downstream iron plants were in a loss, and had a price - pressing mentality when purchasing nickel ore. Some iron plants planned to cut production to stop losses. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (Phase I) dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 US dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream domestic trade premium went to +25, with the premium range mostly at +25 - 26. The overall domestic trade price of nickel ore decreased [1] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,800 yuan/ton, a rise of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of refined nickel of each brand remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 4,900 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 35,096 (+2,501) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,990 (-84) tons [2] - **Strategy** - With high inventories and a continuous supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy for single - side trading is mainly range - bound operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On December 4, 2025, the main contract 2601 of stainless - steel opened at 12,465 yuan/ton and closed at 12,425 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 84,742 (+4,381) lots, and the open interest was 96,076 (-4,171) lots. The main contract of stainless - steel showed a slight downward oscillation trend, performing weakly. Caught between macro - level positives and weak fundamentals, both long and short sides lacked a clear direction, and market trading willingness was low [3] - After several days of small rebounds, the stainless - steel spot market returned to normal, with stable spot quotes and a few cases of selling at a discount. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 315 - 515 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 881.0 yuan/nickel point [3] - **Strategy** - Due to low demand, high inventories, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless - steel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, while the February contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. There is currently no arbitrage opportunity. The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downward. The implementation of the price increase in January and the delivery of container ships in 2025 need to be closely monitored [6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of December 4, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 64,733 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 31,055 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1585.00, 1090.10, 1255.10, 1385.60, 1040.20, and 1649.10 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from various shipping companies show price changes from December. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price increased from 1440/2240 in the second week of December to 1530/2400 in the third week, and it announced a price increase letter of 2275/3500 for January. The upper - half - month price of MSC + Premier Alliance was 1485/2465 in December, and the lower - half - month price was 1605/2665. The 12 - month contract settlement price is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on December 15th, 22nd, and 29th. The preliminary estimate of SCFIS on December 15th is around 1600 - 1650 points, and around 1700 - 1750 points on December 22nd [1][4]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the monthly average weekly capacity was 318,400 TEU, and in January, it was 328,000 TEU, with 4 blank sailings in December and 3 TBNs in January (all from the OA Alliance). Maersk added an extra - sailing ship in week 51. As of November 29, 2025, 243 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.985 million TEU [3][7]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd launched a Cape of Good Hope network due to the ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea. There is currently no specific time to change the east - west route of the Gemini to pass through the Red Sea. The resumption of the Suez Canal in 2026 may increase the effective capacity supply and put downward pressure on freight rates [2][6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - No specific content directly related to demand and European economy analysis is provided in the text other than some data charts mentioned, so no detailed summary can be made.