Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. On the supply side, TC prices are continuously declining, and smelter maintenance is increasing. On the demand side, dealer inventory depletion is slow, purchasing意愿 is low, and some enterprises' finished - product inventories are accumulating. With the upcoming implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles and Middle - East tariff policies in September, the impact on consumption is uncertain. Therefore, the lead price is expected to remain in a trading range between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On September 4, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 43.09 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, 10,100 yuan/ton, and 10,425 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On September 4, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,865 yuan/ton, closed at 16,860 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 25,910 lots, a decrease of 4,432 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 50,042 lots, a decrease of 596 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 16,835 yuan/ton and 16,890 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,890 yuan/ton and closed at 16,870 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The lead market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply is affected by falling TC prices and increased smelter maintenance. Demand is weak as dealers have slow inventory depletion and low purchasing意愿, and some enterprises have accumulated finished - product inventories [3] Inventory Data - On September 4, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 66,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to the same period last week. As of September 4, the LME lead inventory was 251,200 tons, a decrease of 3,350 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [3]

尿素日报 | 2025-09-05 尿素港口小幅累库，印标投标量增价减 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-04，尿素主力收盘1714元/吨（+0）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1710 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1700元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1710元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-14 元/吨（-10）；河南基差：-4元/吨（-10）；江苏基差：-4元/吨（-10）；尿素生产利润170元/吨（-10），出口利润1186 元/吨（+4）。 供应端：截至2025-09-04，企业产能利用率78.11%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为109.50 万吨（+0.92），港口样本 库存量为62.09 万吨（+2.09）。 需求端：截至2025-09-04，复合肥产能利用率33.08%（-6.14%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.98%（+0.48%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.41日（+0.35）。 国内出口政策、装置检修情况、库存变动情况、农业需求情况。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 印度NFL尿素进口招标，最晚船期10月 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-09-05 成本端支撑转弱，炼厂端库存增加 市场分析 1、9月4日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2510合约下午收盘价3468元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌2.14%；持仓70861 手，环比下降22224手，成交128082手，环比增加26904手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3806—4086元/吨；山东，3480—3820 元/吨；华南，3490—3550元/吨； 华东，3560—3800 元/吨。 由于欧佩克增产的预期增加，昨日原油价格大幅下跌，沥青成本端支撑转弱，BU盘面跟随下跌。昨日华北、华东 以及华南市场沥青现货价格均出现上涨，山东市场沥青现货价格下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。就沥青 自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位，本周炼厂端再度出现累库，由于部分主力炼厂复产后 供应增加，加之终端需求较为一般，业者拿货积极性欠佳。目前来看，沥青市场自身基本面驱动不足，短期盘面 或将跟随原油端波动。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. Core View - The PVC market continues to be weak after the weakening of macro - sentiment, with supply pressure and weak demand, and the chlorine - alkali profit still has room for compression. The caustic soda spot price is stable with a slight increase, and the non - aluminum downstream start - up rate is increasing. The chlorine - alkali profit is at a medium level compared with the same period [3][4]. Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4883 yuan/ton (+5), the East China basis is - 213 yuan/ton (-5), and the South China basis is - 133 yuan/ton (-25). The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4670 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4750 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profits**: The blue charcoal price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 64 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit is - 399 yuan/ton (-176), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit is - 628 yuan/ton (-36), and the PVC export profit is 13.7 US dollars/ton (-4.3) [1]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The PVC in - factory inventory is 31.2 tons (+0.6), the PVC social inventory is 52.2 tons (+1.4), the PVC calcium carbide - based start - up rate is 77.65% (+2.41%), the PVC ethylene - based start - up rate is 72.59% (+3.93%), and the overall PVC start - up rate is 76.18% (+2.85%) [1]. - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.6 tons (-2.9) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2593 yuan/ton (-19), the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 126 yuan/ton (+19). The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profits**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1728 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive chlorine - alkali profit in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 744.5 yuan/ton (-40.0), the comprehensive chlorine - alkali profit in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 642.53 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive chlorine - alkali profit in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1418.45 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 38.78 tons (+0.83), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.14 tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 84.20% (+1.80%) [2]. - **Downstream Start - up**: The alumina start - up rate is 85.58% (-0.20%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 65.63% (+0.90%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 87.10% (+1.08%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market continues to be weak after the weakening of macro - sentiment. The supply side has increased production due to the resumption of many maintenance enterprises and new production capacity. The demand side has low downstream product start - up and weak export. The social inventory is accumulating, and the chlorine - alkali profit has room for compression [3]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda spot price is stable with a slight increase. The supply - side start - up rate is slightly rising. The demand - side inventory in Shandong has accumulated due to transportation restrictions, but the subsequent shipment pressure is small. The non - aluminum downstream start - up rate is increasing, and the chlorine - alkali profit is at a medium level compared with the same period [4]. Strategy PVC - **Single - sided**: Cautiously bearish. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Go short on the V01 - 05 spread when it is high. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [5]. Caustic Soda - **Single - sided**: Cautiously bullish. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Go long on the SH10 - 01 spread when it is low. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR and suggests to focus on the Sheng Hong PX plant situation [5]. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, oil prices dropped significantly as Brent fell below $67 per barrel again due to OPEC considering further lifting production restrictions. The impact of the latest OPEC news on the oil market is more emotional, and the short - term direction of oil prices is unclear considering uncertainties like Russia - Ukraine peace talks. Naphtha has been strong recently due to supply disruptions and expected demand recovery [1][2]. - In the PX market, after the restart of Idemitsu's maintenance plant in early September and the future restart of Fuhai Chuang, the PX load at home and abroad is expected to rise. The PX balance sheet has shifted from destocking to a loose balance, and the floating price of near - month PX has weakened, but PXN has support at the bottom due to low inventory and new PTA plant demand [2]. - In the PTA market, the actual maintenance volume of Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton PTA plant is less than expected and may restart ahead of schedule, narrowing the destocking range in September. The spot basis has weakened, and the demand recovery is limited with insufficient order connections [3]. - In the demand aspect, the polyester operating rate is 90.3% (up 0.3% month - on - month). There are signs of demand recovery, but this week's order connections are insufficient, and the weaving and texturing loads have declined. The polyester load is expected to continue to rise steadily in the short term [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit is 117 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month). The load has increased as some previously reduced - production plants have resumed, and the overall supply - demand situation has improved with inventory destocking, but there is obvious wait - and - see sentiment [3]. - For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is 425 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan/ton month - on - month). The fundamentals have changed little, and the industry is expected to maintain a 20% production reduction target in September, with limited subsequent load increase and expected small fluctuations in processing fees [4]. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report shows TA and PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber basis [11][12][14] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][22] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Covers toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan CFR naphtha spread, and PTA export profit [27][28] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Presents the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX operating rates in China and Asia [30][33][36] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Covers filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing operating rates [48][50][59] VII. PF Detailed Data - Contains polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn operating rates, production profits, and processing fees [70][80][82] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Includes polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot and export processing fees, export profit, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [89][91][104]

综合来看：受股市行情带动，风险偏好调整对债市形成利好，同时美联储降息预期提升、全球贸易不确定性上升 增加了外资流入的不确定性。整体看，债市在稳增长与宽松预期间震荡运行，短期关注月底政策信号。 策略 单边：回购利率回落，国债期货价格震荡。 套利：关注2512基差回落。 套保：中期存在调整压力，空头可采用远月合约适度套保。 国债期货日报 | 2025-09-05 股债跷跷板延续，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依 规治理企业无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引；2025年8月1日， 财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的 利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直 至到期。（2）通胀：7月CPI同比持平。 资金面：（3）财政：2025年7月金融数据显示，M1、M2同比增速分别回升至5.6%和8.8%，剪刀差收窄至3.2%，表 明流动性充裕、企业活期资金活跃度提升 ...

期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2511合约3965.00元/吨，较前日变化+4.00元/吨，幅度+0.10%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A11+255，较前日变化-4，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.11元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝 清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.10元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋 白中粒塔粮装车报价2.07元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22 元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.19元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江绥 化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤，较昨日平。 昨日豆一期货价格震荡运行，目前国产大豆丰产预期较强，市场交易情绪不高，陈货采购积极性较弱，价格承压， 短期来看，国产大豆价格将维持平稳态势，后期市场动向需重点关注相关政策指引及下游实际需求的改善情况。 策略 油料日报 | 2025-09-05 花生陆续上市，价优质优 大豆观点 市场分析 中性 2025年期货市场研究报告 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-05 氧化铝交割升水调整 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20610元/吨，较上一交易日变化-120元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-20元/吨， 较上一交易日变化10元/吨；中原A00铝价20470元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化30元/吨至-160元/吨；佛 山A00铝价录20560元/吨，较上一交易日变化-110元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化15元/吨至-70元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-09-04日沪铝主力合约开于20710元/吨，收于20605元/吨，较上一交易日变化-160元/吨， 最高价达20765元/吨，最低价达到20525元/吨。全天交易日成交151216手，全天交易日持仓206617手。 库存方面，截止2025-09-04，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存62.6万吨，较上一期变化0.3吨，仓单库存59583 吨，较上一交易日变化26吨，LME铝库存479600吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-09-04SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3140元/吨，山东价格录得3120元/吨，河南价格录得 3160元/吨，广西价格录得 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The port inventory continues to rise rapidly, especially in Jiangsu. The overseas methanol production is still at a high level, and the arrival pressure in China in September remains high, awaiting the resumption of downstream MTO Xingxing in early September. The pattern of weak ports and strong inland areas persists, and the window for ports to flow back to southern Shandong has opened. The downside space depends on the inland performance. - The centralized maintenance period of coal - based methanol in the inland areas has passed, and the production of coal - based methanol has further increased. The inventory of inland factories has bottomed out and rebounded, and the inland supply - demand may weaken marginally. Among traditional downstream industries, the operating rates of MTBE and acetic acid continue to decline, and the operating rate of formaldehyde remains low. [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures showing the basis between methanol spot in different regions and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts, including methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01. [6][7] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), and the import price differences such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China. [6][27] III. Methanol Production and Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol, the operating rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of Chinese methanol (including integrated plants) are presented. The port inventory is increasing, with the total port inventory at 1,427,655 tons (+127,905 tons), and the inventory in Jiangsu ports at 760,000 tons (+88,500 tons). The operating rate of downstream MTO is 84.72% (-0.63%). The inland factory inventory is also rising, with the Longzhong inland factory inventory at 341,083 tons (+7,690 tons). [2][3][35] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report shows the price differences between different regions, such as the price differences between northern Shandong and the northwest, Taicang and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and southern Shandong, etc. For example, the price difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia - 550 is - 363 yuan/ton (-8 yuan/ton). [3][6][40] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profits of traditional downstream industries, including the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan. [6][51] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. - Inter - period: Wait and see. - Cross - variety: Wait and see. [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price will fluctuate within a range, and a short - position allocation is recommended for the medium - term [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The news that OPEC will discuss lifting the second - layer production limit of 1.66 million barrels per day in the weekend meeting affects oil price trends. However, an increase in production quotas does not equal an increase in production. OPEC's lifting of production limits may be more of a political statement rather than actual production control [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 49 cents to $63.48 per barrel, a decline of 0.77%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for November delivery fell 61 cents to $66.99 per barrel, a decline of 0.90%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 0.06% at 483 yuan per barrel [1] - Russia may extend the gasoline export ban for producers until October [2] - In August, Kazakhstan's daily oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels to 1.712 million barrels compared to the previous month [2] - If OPEC+ decides to cancel the second - batch of production cuts, the global idle crude oil production capacity will shrink rapidly. If the second - stage production cuts are fully cancelled, the relevant production increase process will be gradually advanced within four to six months. At that time, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production may reach 10.48 million barrels per day [2] - US President Trump will talk with Russian President Putin in the near future [2] - The EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory in the week ending August 29 was the highest since the week of October 14, 2022. The EIA gasoline inventory decline was the largest since the week of April 25, 2025, and it was the seventh consecutive week of decline [2] Investment Logic - The news of OPEC lifting the second - layer production limit affects oil prices. Although Saudi Arabia's production quota will increase to 10.5 million barrels per day, its actual production and exports have not increased. Whether Saudi Arabia will accelerate production increase in the future is unknown [3] Strategy - The short - term oil price will fluctuate within a range, and a short - position allocation is recommended for the medium - term [4]