Group 1: Report General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: September 19, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Key Market Conditions - Zhengzhou cotton market weakened. The latest 328-grade cotton price index was 15,319 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang local machine-picked cotton was mostly at CF01+1500 or above, for self-pickup in Xinjiang. The lower sales basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine-picked cotton was in the range of CF01+1100 - 1250, and most quotes of the same quality were at CF01+1250 or above, for self-pickup in the inland [7]. - The pure cotton yarn market was mediocre, with the peak season underperforming expectations and weaker than in previous years. Downstream buyers made purchases mainly for rigid demand, and spinning mills sold products at prevailing prices. Cotton yarn prices remained stable overall with a slow downward trend. The shipment of the cotton greige fabric market continued, with stable prices and actual transactions negotiated based on quantity. The order competition among home textile factories was fierce, with low order processing fees, and weaving factories prioritized inventory reduction [7]. Market Analysis - In the overseas market, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, emphasized the downward risk of employment, and believed that inflation had risen. After the short-term expectation was fulfilled, the US dollar index stabilized and rebounded, and US cotton fluctuated and adjusted. In the domestic market, as new cotton was approaching the market, the market generally expected this year's new cotton supply to be between 7.3 and 7.5 million tons. Recently, the pre - purchase price also slightly dropped to around 6.3 - 6.4 yuan/kg. The supply side would gradually shift from a stage of tightness to abundance, increasing the upward pressure on the futures market. On the demand side, the downstream industry had little confidence in the traditional peak season, and overall demand was lower than the same period in previous years. Currently, the finished product inventory was still slightly decreasing, the operating rate of downstream weaving factories had a seasonal slight increase, and there was still support from rigid demand. With the expectation of a bumper harvest yet to be fulfilled, Zhengzhou cotton weakened in the short term [8]. Group 3: Industry News - According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in August 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons. From January to August 2025, China cumulatively imported 590,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 1.57 million tons. In the 2024/2025 season, China cumulatively imported 1.07 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 2.19 million tons [9]. - In August 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons. From January to August 2025, China cumulatively imported 910,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 110,000 tons. In the 2024/2025 season, China cumulatively imported 1.41 million tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 260,000 tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, etc. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][20]

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: September 19, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures 01 contract decreased by 0.41%, with the previous settlement price at 5344 yuan/ton and the closing price at 5322 yuan/ton. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market is 5020 - 6600 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable compared to the previous trading day. The quoted price of Arauco's Silver Star in Shandong is 5630 - 5650 yuan/ton [7]. - Arauco's new September pulp export prices: Silver Star (softwood pulp) is 700 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from last month; Venus (unbleached pulp) is 590 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last month; Star (hardwood pulp) is 520 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton from last month. UPM extended the shutdown and maintenance of two Finnish pulp mills by two weeks [8]. - In August, the European pulp inventory was 707,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 11.3%; the European pulp consumption was 700,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.7% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. China's pulp import volume in August was 2.653 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.6%. As of September 18, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.54% month - on - month [8]. - In the downstream cultural paper market, the supply increased due to the resumption of previously shut - down production lines, and the inventory pressure of paper enterprises increased recently, showing a weak and volatile trend. In the short term, pulp supply is relatively abundant. Although the start - up rate of downstream paper mills has increased, they mainly purchase at low prices under cost pressure, and the pulp market will continue to adjust with low - level fluctuations [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The pulp futures 01 contract (SP2601) had an opening price of 5344 yuan/ton, a high of 5354 yuan/ton, a low of 5290 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 5322 yuan/ton, down 0.41%. The trading volume was 36,585 lots, and the open interest decreased by 504 lots to 30,131 lots. For SP2605, the closing price was 5346 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The Shandong softwood pulp market had an intended transaction price range of 5020 - 6600 yuan/ton, and the Silver Star was quoted at 5630 - 5650 yuan/ton [7]. - **Industry News Impact**: Arauco's price adjustments and UPM's extended shutdown, along with European and Chinese pulp inventory and consumption data, as well as the situation in the downstream cultural paper market, all affect the short - term pulp market, which is expected to remain in a low - level volatile adjustment [8]. 2. Industry Highlights - On September 18, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the first batch of delivery warehouses for offset printing paper futures. Jianfa Warehousing and Jianfa Pulp & Paper, subsidiaries of Jianfa Co., Ltd., obtained the qualifications for delivery warehouses and delivery factories respectively. Offset printing paper, mainly made of bleached wood pulp, is widely used in books, textbooks, and magazines, and double - sided offset printing paper accounts for about 40% of domestic cultural paper consumption. This is significant for stabilizing the industrial supply chain and promoting market development [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, prices and price differences of white cardboard and white board paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate. The data sources are Wind and Zhuochuang Information [15][25][27]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the SCFIS dropped below 1500 points for nine consecutive weeks. Online quotes in the second half of September were further reduced, with the lowest price falling below $1600 per 40 - foot container. The price shows a smooth downward trend in the off - season with an increasing decline. There is currently no significant increase in blank sailings compared to last year, while the overall shipping capacity has increased. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the October contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: The SCFIS has been falling for nine consecutive weeks, dropping below 1500 points. Online quotes in the second half of September were further reduced, with large - container quotes from shipping companies showing a downward trend. For example, Maersk's quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the third and fourth weeks of September were $1669/GP and $1590/GP respectively, about $400 lower than in the first half of the month, and OOCL's quotes in the second half of the month were $1600 - 1700/GP, about $200 lower than before [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: As the current blank - sailing scale is not significantly higher than last year and the overall shipping capacity has increased, attention should be paid to whether blank - sailing efforts will be increased later to support the freight rate bottom. The tense situation in the Middle East may support far - month contracts. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the October contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **China's Export Container Shipping Market**: From September 8 to 12, the China Export Container Shipping Market was generally stable, with freight rates falling on most routes, dragging down the composite index. In August, China's exports increased by 4.4% year - on - year in US dollars, showing the resilience and vitality of China's foreign trade. On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Composite Freight Index was 1398.11 points, down 3.2% from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: In August, China's exports to Europe increased by 10.4% year - on - year, and the trade volume between China and the EU in the first eight months increased by 4.3% year - on - year, accounting for 13.1% of China's total foreign trade. However, this week, there was no further growth in transportation demand, and the market freight rate continued to adjust. On September 12, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic European ports was $1154/TEU, down 12.2% from the previous period [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, with spot booking prices continuing to decline. On September 12, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic Mediterranean ports was $1738/TEU, down 11.8% from the previous period [9][10]. - **North American Routes**: In August, the US non - farm sector added 22,000 jobs, far lower than market expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. China's exports to the US in August decreased by more than 30% year - on - year. However, this week, transportation demand remained stable, driving the market freight rate up. On September 12, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the US West and East were $2370/FEU and $3307/FEU respectively, up 8.3% and 7.6% from the previous period [10]. - **Middle East Tension**: Since September 8, the situation in the Middle East has become tense again. Israel has increased its attacks on the Gaza Strip, and there have been a series of attacks and counter - attacks. The tense situation may support far - month container shipping contracts [10]. 3.3 Data Overview 3.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - **SCFIS for European Routes**: On September 15, 2025, the SCFIS for European routes was 1440.24 points, down 126.22 points (- 8.1%) from September 8 [12]. - **SCFIS for US West Routes**: On September 15, 2025, the SCFIS for US West routes was 1349.84 points, up 369.36 points (37.7%) from September 8 [12]. 3.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market - **Futures Trading Data**: On September 17, for contracts such as EC2510, EC2512, etc., there were different changes in prices, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the EC2510 contract had a closing price of 1109.7, a drop of 79.9 points (- 6.72%), with a trading volume of 43,546 and an open interest of 49,609, an increase of 2092 [6]. 3.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping futures contract trends, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - Europe freight rates, etc., to visually display relevant data [13][17][19]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market Performance: Shanghai zinc futures showed narrow - range fluctuations. ZN2510 closed at 22,280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.09%, with reduced volume and positions. The 10 - 11 spread was - 5. The domestic processing fee had limited upward momentum, with some local quotes slightly falling. SMM domestic monthly TC for zinc concentrate was 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose 2.5 dollars/dry ton to 96.25 dollars/dry ton. By - product sulfuric acid prices dropped due to supply recovery. Despite a contraction in comprehensive profit, it remained at a relatively high level. September saw more smelter overhauls and some secondary zinc enterprises faced raw material price hikes and tight supply, with expected monthly output down 1 - 2 tons to around 600,000 tons. Supply remained generally loose. After the parade, logistics and production restrictions in North and Central China were lifted, leading to a month - on - month increase in the primary consumption sector's开工. However, the improvement in consumption was slowly transmitted upstream, and social inventories continued to accumulate, though at a slower pace. There was a divergence between the strong overseas and weak domestic markets, with concerns about overseas refined zinc supply causing a spot premium (0 - 3B41.33). Given the weak fundamentals of Shanghai zinc and no sign of a de - stocking inflection point, the market maintained a range - bound pattern. The market generally expected a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut to be announced early Thursday, and attention was on Powell's speech for guidance on the path of interest rate cuts for the year [7] Group 3: Industry News - Zinc Price and Transaction Information: On September 17, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,175 - 22,280 yuan/ton, double - swallow brand was 22,285 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc was 22,105 - 22,210 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 30 - 40 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Honglu - v at a 20 - yuan/ton discount, Huize at a 50 - 60 - yuan/ton premium, and high - end brand Double - swallow at a 90 - 100 - yuan/ton premium. In different regions, the prices and quotes relative to the contracts varied. For example, in Ningbo, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at 22,175 - 22,260 yuan/ton, with quotes at a discount to the 2510 contract; in Tianjin, 0 zinc was at 22,110 - 22,270 yuan/ton, with various discounts to the 2510 contract; in Guangdong, 0 zinc was at 22,090 - 22,230 yuan/ton, with quotes at a discount to the 2511 contract and a discount to Shanghai spot prices, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price spread widened [8][9] Group 4: Data Overview - Data Sources: Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department provided data on the two - market zinc price trends, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory [7][10][11]

行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 9 月 18 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 每日报告 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 ＃summary＃ 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Information - Report Type: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is in a short - term state of relatively abundant supply. The downstream paper mills'开工 has increased, but they mainly purchase at low prices due to cost pressure, and the market continues to adjust with low - level fluctuations [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The previous settlement price and closing price of the pulp futures 01 contract were both 5348 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.00%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5020 - 6600 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5630 - 5650 yuan/ton [7] - Chile's Arauco Company announced the new September wood pulp export price list: the price of softwood pulp Yinxing was 700 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton from last month; the price of natural pulp Jinxing was 590 US dollars/ton, the same as last month; the price of hardwood pulp Mingxing was 520 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20 US dollars/ton from last month [8] - In August, the European wood pulp inventory was 707,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 11.3%; the European wood pulp consumption was 700,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.7% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. China's total pulp imports in August were 2.653 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.6%. As of September 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.072 million tons, an increase of 0.71% from the previous week [8] - In the downstream cultural paper market, the restart of previously shut - down production lines has led to an increase in supply, and recently, the inventory pressure of paper enterprises has increased, showing a weak and volatile operation [8] 2. Industry News - On September 17, the China Enterprise Confederation and the China Entrepreneurs Association released the "Top 500 Chinese Enterprises in 2025" list. The controlling shareholder of the company, Shandong Sun Holding Group Co., Ltd., ranked 326th, an improvement of 10 places from last year [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - There is no investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term trend of domestic soybean meal is weak due to strong market risk - aversion sentiment and near - end spot pressure. Although the USDA's September monthly supply - demand report is slightly bearish, the market reaction is limited. With the relative stability of CBOT soybeans, the domestic soybean meal market is affected by external news. In the short term, it may have difficulty rebounding due to poor technical performance, but considering the complexity of Sino - US negotiations, the price cannot be expected to drop significantly. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Under the assumption of unchanged tariffs, the time window for long positions may be in the fourth quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: The prices of domestic soybean meal contracts such as 2601, 2509, and 2511 declined. The main contract of US soybean futures on the outer market oscillated at 1045 cents. The USDA's September report slightly adjusted the planting area, yield per unit, and demand of soybeans, with a final ending inventory of 300 million bushels, slightly higher than the previous 290 million bushels, showing a slight bearish signal [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic soybean meal market is weak because of strong risk - aversion sentiment and spot pressure. The news of Trump's potential visit to China and a possible purchase agreement of US goods has led to early risk - aversion by market bulls. There is currently a relative lack of positive news, and the market is easily influenced by external news. The short - term technical performance is poor, but considering the complexity of Sino - US negotiations, the price will not drop significantly. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the long - position time window may be in the fourth quarter [6]. 3.2 Industry News - USDA: The expected soybean production in the US for the 2025/2026 season in September is 4.301 billion bushels, higher than the market expectation of 4.271 billion bushels. The expected ending inventory is 300 million bushels, higher than the market expectation of 288 million bushels. The expected yield per unit is 53.5 bushels per acre, higher than the market expectation of 53.3 bushels per acre. - As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, the same as the market expectation; the harvest rate was 5%, the same as the market expectation; and the defoliation rate was 41% [9][10]. - Abiove: The estimated soybean production in Brazil for the 2024/25 season remains at 170.3 million tons. The estimated soybean export volume in 2025 remains at 109.5 million tons. The estimated soybean crushing volume in 2025 is adjusted up to 58.5 million tons. The estimated soybean meal production in the 2024/25 season is adjusted up to 45.1 million tons, and the estimated export volume remains at 23.6 million tons. The estimated soybean oil production in the 2024/25 season is adjusted up to 11.7 million tons, and the estimated export volume remains at 1.35 million tons [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract of soybean meal, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][12][18]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the central bank restarting bond - buying has heated up again, causing treasury bond futures to strengthen in the afternoon and close higher across the board [8] - Yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market have declined across the board, with medium - and long - term yields falling by about 2bp [9] - Amid tax - period disturbances, the central bank has returned to net investment in the open market, and the money market has tightened. Short - term interest rates have risen across the board [10] - The economic data for August shows that the domestic demand recovery foundation is still weak, and there is no strong need for the domestic monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September. Policy may focus more on fiscal and credit expansion and real - estate support, which may disrupt the bond market. However, the suppression from the stock market on the bond market may ease [11][12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: Treasury bond futures strengthened in the afternoon and closed higher across the board due to the rising expectation of the central bank restarting bond - buying. Yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined, with medium - and long - term yields falling about 2bp. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 yield dropped 1.75bp to 1.7625% [8][9] - **Money Market**: Amid tax - period disturbances, the central bank conducted 4185 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations with 3040 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, achieving a net investment of 1145 billion yuan. Short - term interest rates rose, while medium - and long - term funds changed little [10] - **Conclusion**: The economic data for August shows weak domestic demand recovery. There is no strong need for domestic monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September. Policy may focus on fiscal and credit expansion and real - estate support, which may disrupt the bond market. The suppression from the stock market on the bond market may ease. The bond market may lack a breakthrough, and short - term bonds may be more resilient [11][12] 4.2 Industry News - From September 14th to 15th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Madrid, reaching a basic framework consensus on issues such as TikTok, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation [13] - On September 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in August, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive trend. From January to August, national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, with private fixed - asset investment down 2.3%. Real - estate development investment decreased by 12.9%. In August, social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% [14] - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%. From January to August, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [15] 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents trading data of various treasury bond futures contracts on September 17th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. [6] - **Related Spreads and Trends**: It also shows information such as the inter - term spreads of treasury bond futures' main contracts, inter - variety spreads (2 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year; 5 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year; 10 - year vs 30 - year), and the trends of main contracts [17][19][22] - **Money Market**: It includes the term - structure changes and trends of SHIBOR, and the changes in the weighted average interest rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase and inter - bank deposit - based pledged repurchase [31][35] - **Derivatives Market**: It shows the fixed - rate curves (mean values) of Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swaps [37]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 18 日 | | | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货9月17交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变 | | | | | | | | （%） | （万手） | 化 | | SA601 | 1344 | 1346 | 1324 | 1334 | -3 | -0.22 | 133.95 | 913 | | SA605 | 1423 | 1425 | 1407 | 1418 | 3 | 0.21 | 20.51 | -742 | | FG601 | 1240 | 1247 | 1224 | 1234 | -2 | -0.16 | 130.43 | 24237 | | FG603 | 1291 | 1299 | 1278 | 1288 | -2 | -0.15 | 0.57 | -165 | | 数据来源：Wind， | | 建信期货研究发展部 | | | | | ...

1. Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Quotes Summary Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7252 | 7245 | 7265 | 7238 | -15 | -0.21 | 520256 | -3780 | | Plastic 2605 | 7285 | 7289 | 7308 | 7279 | 5 | 0.07 | 38553 | 193 | | Plastic 2609 | 7315 | 7299 | 7322 | 7299 | 0 | 0.00 | 32 | 1 | | PP2601 | 6977 | 6982 | 6996 | 6970 | -10 | -0.14 | 570841 | -10461 | | PP2605 | 7005 | 7017 | 7027 | 7002 | 7 | 0.10 | 67265 | 3640 | | PP2609 | 6977 | 6984 | 6992 | 6975 | 8 | 0.11 | 1051 | 201 | [5] 3. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Linear futures opened lower and oscillated weakly, dampening trading sentiment. Traders offered discounts, and end - users purchased as needed. [6] - **Supply Side**: Upstream maintenance levels exceeded expectations, with more shutdown devices. Upstream capacity utilization and production both decreased. [6] - **Demand Side**: The downstream agricultural film industry entered the peak season, but the operating load was still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. Overall demand was not fully released. The overall operating rate of PP downstream increased, with BOPP and pipes showing a slight month - on - month increase. Demand is expected to have room for recovery. [6] - **Cost Side**: Due to the expected increase in crude oil supply and a weak medium - to - long - term fundamental outlook, cost support weakened. [6] - **Overall Outlook**: The market is in a pattern of both supply and demand recovering. Downstream enterprises are expected to replenish their stocks before the double festivals, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate warmly. [6] 4. Industry News - **Inventory**: On September 17, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 650,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 2.99%. The inventory at the same time last year was 810,000 tons. [7] - **PE Market**: The PE market price was weakly adjusted. The LLDPE price in North China was 7,130 - 7,450 yuan/ton, 7,210 - 7,700 yuan/ton in East China, and 7,320 - 7,750 yuan/ton in South China. [7] - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily in the range of 6,580 - 6,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Downstream factories made purchases at low prices, some production enterprises saw increased sales volume, and the willingness to support prices became more prominent. The market trading center moved up slightly, and the overall trading atmosphere was fair. [7] - **PP Market**: The PP market was stable with some loosening, and some prices decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6,740 - 6,860 yuan/ton, 6,750 - 6,930 yuan/ton in East China, and 6,720 - 6,920 yuan/ton in South China. [7] 5. Data Overview - The report also presented multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate, with data sources mainly from Wind and Zhuochuang Information. [9][15][17]