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建信期货棉花日报-20250918
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 01:44
Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was CF01 + 1500 and above, and that of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked cotton was in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1250 [7] - The cotton yarn market was average, with the peak season underperforming expectations and weaker than previous years. The downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases, and spinning mills sold at market prices. The cotton yarn price remained stable with a slow downward trend. The cotton fabric market maintained shipments, and the fabric price was stable [7] - Overseas, the expected Fed rate cut this week and the assessment of further monetary policy easing in the coming months led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting US cotton. In the domestic market, before the new cotton listing, trading volume was low, and the expected opening price was around 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The demand side had a slight reduction in finished - product inventory, and the downstream weaving mills' operation rate increased seasonally, with rigid - demand support remaining. Fundamentally, there were limited changes, and Zhengzhou cotton would continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending September 13, 2025, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 96.6%, up 9.7 percentage points from the previous week and 1.9% slower than the same period last year. As of September 11, the processing progress was 36%, and new - cotton exports declined in the short term. The quality indicators such as micronaire and strength were lower than last year [9] - As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 52%, down from 54% the previous week but up from 39% in the same period last year [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including the China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, etc [17][18]
建信期货油脂日报-20250918
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 01:44
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oils and fats [1] - Report date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Market review: In the East China market, the basis price of Grade 3 rapeseed oil from September to October is OI2601 + 220, and from November to December is OI2601 + 230; the basis price of Grade 1 rapeseed oil in September is OI2601 + 310, and in October is OI2601 + 330. The basis price of Grade 1 soybean oil in the spot market is Y2601 + 150, in October is Y2601 + 160, from October to January is Y2601 + 190, from February to May is Y2601 + 130, and from April to July is Y2605 + 200. The basis price of 24 - degree palm olein in East China in September is P2601 - 50, in October is P2601 + 0, and from October to November is P2601 + 50 [7] - Market analysis: Affected by the decline of US soybean oils and fats and the Malaysian market, the domestic oils and fats sector opened high and closed low. The EPA proposed a supplementary rule for the renewable fuel standard to solve the exemption problem of small refineries. The progress of Sino - US negotiations made the market speculate that China might purchase US agricultural products, and the soybean import volume in the fourth quarter might increase, causing funds to withdraw. The near - term rapeseed oil continued the de - stocking trend, with relatively concentrated supply, and traders mainly sold at higher basis prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the Sino - Canadian trade progress and the supply of rapeseed raw materials [7] - Market forecast: It is expected that the oils and fats will fluctuate in the near term. Soybean oil has certain support around 8200, and the fluctuation range of palm oil is approximately 9000 - 9600 [7] Group 3: Industry News - Malaysian palm oil exports: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 742,648 tons, a 2.5% increase compared to the 724,191 tons exported from August 1 - 15. Exports to China were 11,000 tons, a significant increase compared to 8,800 tons in the same period last month [8] - Palm oil production forecast: Apex Securities analysts said that palm oil production may peak again from September to October and then decline due to favorable weather conditions [8] - Indian oil imports: In August 2025, India's palm oil imports increased by 15.76% to 990,528 tons compared to July; soybean oil imports decreased by 25.27% to 367,917 tons; and sunflower oil imports increased by 28.53% to 257,080 tons [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Data charts: Include charts of spot prices of East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil, East China Grade 4 soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm olein, basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads, US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, and US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate [10][12][20]
建信期货沥青日报-20250918
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 01:44
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: BU2511 opened at 3428 yuan/ton, closed at 3445 yuan/ton, with a high of 3448 yuan/ton, a low of 3426 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.58%, and a trading volume of 14.13 million lots. BU2512 opened at 3391 yuan/ton, closed at 3404 yuan/ton, with a high of 3409 yuan/ton, a low of 3391 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.59%, and a trading volume of 3.90 million lots [6] - Spot Market: In the North China market, asphalt prices rose slightly. In the East China region, asphalt spot prices dropped significantly, while prices in other regions remained stable. The oversupply situation in East China led to the price decline [6] - Supply: Jinling Petrochemical may reduce asphalt production. Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong switched to producing residual oil. However, starting from mid - September, Zhongyou Qinhuangdao may resume asphalt production, and Jincheng Petrochemical and Henan Fengli will gradually switch to asphalt production. The asphalt plant operating rate is expected to continue rising [6] - Demand: In the northern regions, road projects are in the peak construction period, and asphalt demand is improving steadily. In the southern regions, due to the long construction cycle, the peak construction period has not yet arrived, and asphalt demand is mainly released steadily with limited overall growth [6] - Operation Suggestion: Due to the weak supply - demand situation of asphalt, it is oscillating. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [6] Group 3: Industry News - East China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3550 - 3650 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Demand was stable with no obvious increase, social inventory did not decline significantly, and market supply was abundant. The spot price in Zhejiang dropped today, and the quotations of traders like Ke Yuan and Zhenhai Refinery for truck - loading ex - factory were both lowered, driving down the market price [7] - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3480 - 3770 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous working day. Hongrun Refinery was fulfilling contracts, and the concentrated pick - up by traders and downstream led to a slight vehicle congestion situation at the refinery. Due to smooth loading, the spot price of Hualong's asphalt continued the trend of small oscillations and increases, while the prices of other refineries remained stable overall [7] Group 4: Data Overview - Data includes South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, all sourced from wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][18][24]
白糖日报-20250918
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 01:44
Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The raw sugar price continues to fluctuate, and the sugar price movement is mainly due to low - level technical fluctuations with the market lacking a clear direction. Attention should be paid to the upcoming production report of Brazil's central - southern region. The Zhengzhou sugar market is in an overall oscillating situation, with weak spot market, ample supply, and increasing supply pressure due to the listing of beet sugar. There are signs that industrial funds may shift from short to long [7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On Monday, the New York raw sugar futures fluctuated weakly. The main October contract closed down 0.75% at 15.88 cents per pound. The main December contract of London ICE white sugar futures closed up 0.06% at $466.00 per ton. The SR601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,529 yuan per ton, down 26 yuan or 0.47%, with an increase of 2,571 positions; the SR605 contract closed at 5,510 yuan per ton, down 22 yuan or 0.40%, with an increase of 4,002 positions. The No.10 contract of US sugar closed at 15.88 cents per pound, down 0.12 cents or 0.75%, with a decrease of 18,381 positions; the No.03 contract closed at 16.55 cents per pound, down 0.18 cents or 1.08%, with an increase of 8,041 positions [7] - **Spot Market**: The spot price in domestic production areas remained unchanged. The price of sugar in Nanning was reported at 5,940 yuan per ton, and that in Kunming was 5,770 yuan per ton [8] 2. Industry News - **Brazil's Sugar Production**: According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center (CTC), in August, the sugarcane yield in Brazil's central - southern region was 77.5 tons per hectare, slightly lower than 78.8 tons per hectare in the same period of 2024. The sugar content index (ATR) decreased by 2.9% from 148.4 kg per ton of sugarcane to 144.2 kg. From the start of the 2025/26 season until August, the average sugarcane yield in the central - southern region decreased by 8.2% year - on - year to 79.2 tons per hectare, compared with 86.3 tons per hectare in the previous season. The cumulative ATR was 129.7 kg per ton of sugarcane, compared with 133.2 kg in the same period last year. A survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights showed that the sugar production in the important central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of August was expected to increase by 17.3% to 3.84 million tons, the sugarcane crushing volume was expected to increase by 9.5% to 49.5 million tons, the sugar content per kilogram of sugarcane was expected to decrease by 4.1% to 149.48 kg per ton of sugarcane, and the ethanol production, including corn ethanol, was expected to decrease by 2.5% to 2.4 billion liters [9] - **India's Sugar Situation**: An Indian government official said that India, the world's second - largest sugar producer, will have sufficient surplus sugar stocks to allow sugar exports in the new sugar - crushing season starting on October 1. India's exports may suppress global sugar prices but support local sugar prices. The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) reaffirmed its earlier forecast of 34.9 million tons of total sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price trend, 2509 contract basis, SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and holding positions of the top 20 seats of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [12][14][16]
建信期货原油日报-20250918
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 01:43
行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 18 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅碳市场) 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1: | | 行情回 ...
建信期货PTA日报-20250918
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 01:43
油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 18 日 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作 ...
建信期货MEG日报-20250918
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 01:43
Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 17th, the opening price of the main contract of ethylene glycol futures was 4283 yuan/ton, the highest was 4308 yuan/ton, the lowest was 4275 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 4289 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4297 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan compared with the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 124,940 lots, and the open interest was 310,659 lots. The EG2601 contract closed at 4297 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, with an open interest of 310,659 lots, a decrease of 107 lots; the EG2605 contract closed at 4358 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, with an open interest of 3388 lots, an increase of 304 lots [7] - Price Forecast: At present, the cost support of ethylene glycol is insufficient, and the upward driving force is poor. From the perspective of the supply - demand structure, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol has not changed much, and the price is expected to remain stable [7] Industry News - International Oil Prices: Due to market concerns about possible supply disruptions caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on a refinery in a European country and the possibility of the US central bank cutting interest rates, international oil prices rose for the third consecutive day. On Tuesday (September 16), the settlement price of the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.52 per barrel, up $1.22 or 1.93% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.89 - $64.76. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.47 per barrel, up $1.03 or 1.53% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.01 - $68.69 [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market in Zhangjiagang: The spot negotiation price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang this week was 4373 - 4375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The negotiation price for late September was 4376 - 4378 yuan/ton, and for late October was 4372 - 4377 yuan/ton. The spot basis was at a premium of 76 - 78 yuan/ton compared with EG2601, the basis for late September was at a premium of 79 - 81 yuan/ton compared with EG2601, and the basis for late October was at a premium of 75 - 80 yuan/ton compared with EG2601 [8] - Polyester Market: The sales of polyester filament were average. The PTA futures price rebounded moderately during the day, but the sentiment in the polyester downstream market did not improve significantly, and most companies continued to digest their existing inventories. The price of the main futures contract of polyester staple fiber fluctuated slightly upward. The prices of staple fiber factories remained stable, and the prices of traders were flat. Downstream buyers purchased on demand, and the trading volume in the market was sluggish [8] Data Overview - Data Sources: All data in the report are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][11][12] - Graphs: The report includes graphs showing MEG futures prices, spot - futures price differences, international crude oil futures prices, raw material price indices (ethylene), PTA - MEG price differences, MEG prices, MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventories [10][15][16]
碳酸锂期货日报-20250917
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 03:27
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Carbonate lithium futures rose and then fell. The market continued to trade on the anti-involution signal released by the article "Deeply Promote the Construction of a National Unified Market" in Qiushi, but the upward momentum was limited without specific policies. The total open interest decreased while the total trading volume increased slightly, indicating an increasing willingness of funds to leave the market [11]. - Spot Price: The spot price of electric carbon increased by 400 to 72,850. The premium of the futures price over the spot price widened. As the Double Festival approaches, downstream buyers have a demand for stocking up at low prices, which supports the spot price of carbonate lithium [11]. - Raw Material Price: The price of Australian ore increased by 10 to $820 per ton, and the price of lithium mica increased by 40 to 1,815 yuan per ton. The production loss of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene narrowed to 3,280 yuan per ton, while the production loss of salt plants using purchased lithium mica widened to 7,539 yuan per ton [11]. - Supply and Demand: Although salt plants are currently operating at a loss, it does not affect their production enthusiasm. The weekly production of carbonate lithium last week was close to the historical high, and the supply pressure remains. The demand is in the peak season. The short-term focus is on the mineral type change of the mines in production in Yichun by the end of the month and the resumption progress of the Jianxiaowo Mine. Before the variables at the mine end are settled, the market sentiment is still difficult to make a clear directional choice [11]. Group 3: Industry News - Production Capacity Upgrade: On September 16, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ) stated on the investor interaction platform that the original annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of carbonate lithium in Lanke Lithium Industry has been increased to 40,000 tons after technological upgrading. The company will continue to benchmark against the industry's advanced level to further improve resource extraction and utilization efficiency and promote high-quality industrial development [12]. - Battery Technology: Fuan Technology stated on the interaction platform that its third-generation semi-solid-state battery introduces solid electrolytes into the positive and negative electrodes and uses in-situ solidification technology to further reduce the electrolyte content in the battery cells. It is planned to be mass-produced in 2026. The energy density of the current soft-pack battery cells has reached 400Wh/kg. The reduction of electrolyte and the introduction of solid oxide electrolytes are beneficial to improving the safety of the battery cells. The compatibility of solid electrolytes with high-energy-density active materials helps to ultimately achieve a high-safety all-solid-state battery with an energy density of over 500Wh/kg [12].
建信期货铜期货日报-20250917
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 02:28
Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The current copper price is at a high level in the past year, and the market is cautious due to the upcoming Fed interest rate meeting. After the expected 25BP interest rate cut is implemented, copper prices are expected to continue to strengthen. Although the downstream's ability to absorb the current copper price is average, there is still restocking demand before the double festivals, which provides support for the demand side [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The Shanghai copper price rose first and then fell. The main contract reached a maximum of 81,530. The spot copper price increased by 180 to 81,120, and the spot premium decreased by 5 to 75. The loss of spot imports widened to 230. The LME0 - 3 contango remained around 62, and the premiums of Yangshan copper warehouse receipts and bills of lading both decreased slightly [10]. 3.2行业要闻 - Anglo American and Codelco plan to jointly mine adjacent copper mines in Chile. Once the relevant licenses are in place, it will increase copper production by 2.7 million tons in 21 years, starting in 2030. The expected annual additional copper production is 120,000 tons, with a 15% reduction in unit cost compared to independent operation, and a minimum increase in capital expenditure. The transaction is expected to generate a pre - tax net present value increase of at least $5 billion, shared equally by both parties [11]. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney told Anglo American that if it wants to merge with Teck Resources, it needs to move its headquarters to Canada [11]. - Chile's state - owned mining agency ENAMI's $1.7 billion smelter modernization project has attracted 15 institutions to express investment intentions. The Hernan Videla - Lira smelter in the Atacama region is being renovated, which will enable it to process 850,000 tons of copper concentrate and produce 240,000 tons of cathode copper annually. The deadline for initial bids is the end of October [11][12].
锌期货日报-20250917
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 02:27
Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of SHFE zinc are weak, and the inflection point of inventory reduction has not appeared. It maintains a range - bound pattern, with a reference range of 22,000 - 22,600 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc 2510, it closed at 22,255 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or 0.22%, with shrinking volume and reduced positions. The positions decreased by 7,012 lots to 84,991 lots, and the 10 - 11 spread was - 10. SHFE zinc 2511 closed at 22,265 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan or 0.25%, with a position of 87,709 lots, a decrease of 4,294 lots. SHFE zinc 2512 closed at 22,285 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or 0.22%, with a position of 29,089 lots, a decrease of 54,220 lots [7] - **Supply - Side Situation**: The upward momentum of domestic processing fees is insufficient, and local quotes have shown a narrow decline but have not formed a downward trend. The SMM domestic monthly TC for zinc concentrates is 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index has increased by 2.5 dollars/dry ton to 96.25 dollars/dry ton. The price of by - product sulfuric acid has fallen due to supply recovery. Although the comprehensive profit has shrunk, it is still at a relatively high level. In September, more smelters are under maintenance, and some secondary zinc enterprises face rising raw material prices and tight supply. It is expected that the monthly output will decline by 1 - 20,000 tons, with the monthly output expected to be around 600,000 tons, and the supply side generally remains loose [7] - **Demand - Side Situation**: After the military parade, logistics and production restrictions in North and Central China have been lifted, and the start - up of the primary consumption field has increased month - on - month. However, the improvement in the consumption end is slowly transmitted upwards. Social inventories continued to accumulate on Monday, but the accumulation rhythm has slowed down. The inventory performance at home and abroad is differentiated. LME zinc inventory has decreased by 1,175 tons to 48,975 tons. Concerns about overseas refined zinc supply have caused a spot premium, with 0 - 3B at 26.76 [7] 2. Industry News - **0 Zinc Transaction Prices**: On September 16, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,225 - 22,305 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was between 22,335 - 22,435 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 22,155 - 22,235 yuan/ton [8] - **Regional Market Quotes**: In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22,235 - 22,305 yuan/ton. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded between 22,180 - 22,300 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was mainly traded between 22,155 - 22,255 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference has narrowed [8][9] 3. Data Overview - Not provided with specific data content in the summary requirements here