行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 18 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1： | | 行情回 ...

油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 18 日 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作 ...

Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 17th, the opening price of the main contract of ethylene glycol futures was 4283 yuan/ton, the highest was 4308 yuan/ton, the lowest was 4275 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 4289 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4297 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan compared with the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 124,940 lots, and the open interest was 310,659 lots. The EG2601 contract closed at 4297 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, with an open interest of 310,659 lots, a decrease of 107 lots; the EG2605 contract closed at 4358 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, with an open interest of 3388 lots, an increase of 304 lots [7] - Price Forecast: At present, the cost support of ethylene glycol is insufficient, and the upward driving force is poor. From the perspective of the supply - demand structure, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol has not changed much, and the price is expected to remain stable [7] Industry News - International Oil Prices: Due to market concerns about possible supply disruptions caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on a refinery in a European country and the possibility of the US central bank cutting interest rates, international oil prices rose for the third consecutive day. On Tuesday (September 16), the settlement price of the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.52 per barrel, up $1.22 or 1.93% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.89 - $64.76. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.47 per barrel, up $1.03 or 1.53% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.01 - $68.69 [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market in Zhangjiagang: The spot negotiation price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang this week was 4373 - 4375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The negotiation price for late September was 4376 - 4378 yuan/ton, and for late October was 4372 - 4377 yuan/ton. The spot basis was at a premium of 76 - 78 yuan/ton compared with EG2601, the basis for late September was at a premium of 79 - 81 yuan/ton compared with EG2601, and the basis for late October was at a premium of 75 - 80 yuan/ton compared with EG2601 [8] - Polyester Market: The sales of polyester filament were average. The PTA futures price rebounded moderately during the day, but the sentiment in the polyester downstream market did not improve significantly, and most companies continued to digest their existing inventories. The price of the main futures contract of polyester staple fiber fluctuated slightly upward. The prices of staple fiber factories remained stable, and the prices of traders were flat. Downstream buyers purchased on demand, and the trading volume in the market was sluggish [8] Data Overview - Data Sources: All data in the report are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][11][12] - Graphs: The report includes graphs showing MEG futures prices, spot - futures price differences, international crude oil futures prices, raw material price indices (ethylene), PTA - MEG price differences, MEG prices, MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventories [10][15][16]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Carbonate lithium futures rose and then fell. The market continued to trade on the anti-involution signal released by the article "Deeply Promote the Construction of a National Unified Market" in Qiushi, but the upward momentum was limited without specific policies. The total open interest decreased while the total trading volume increased slightly, indicating an increasing willingness of funds to leave the market [11]. - Spot Price: The spot price of electric carbon increased by 400 to 72,850. The premium of the futures price over the spot price widened. As the Double Festival approaches, downstream buyers have a demand for stocking up at low prices, which supports the spot price of carbonate lithium [11]. - Raw Material Price: The price of Australian ore increased by 10 to $820 per ton, and the price of lithium mica increased by 40 to 1,815 yuan per ton. The production loss of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene narrowed to 3,280 yuan per ton, while the production loss of salt plants using purchased lithium mica widened to 7,539 yuan per ton [11]. - Supply and Demand: Although salt plants are currently operating at a loss, it does not affect their production enthusiasm. The weekly production of carbonate lithium last week was close to the historical high, and the supply pressure remains. The demand is in the peak season. The short-term focus is on the mineral type change of the mines in production in Yichun by the end of the month and the resumption progress of the Jianxiaowo Mine. Before the variables at the mine end are settled, the market sentiment is still difficult to make a clear directional choice [11]. Group 3: Industry News - Production Capacity Upgrade: On September 16, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ) stated on the investor interaction platform that the original annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of carbonate lithium in Lanke Lithium Industry has been increased to 40,000 tons after technological upgrading. The company will continue to benchmark against the industry's advanced level to further improve resource extraction and utilization efficiency and promote high-quality industrial development [12]. - Battery Technology: Fuan Technology stated on the interaction platform that its third-generation semi-solid-state battery introduces solid electrolytes into the positive and negative electrodes and uses in-situ solidification technology to further reduce the electrolyte content in the battery cells. It is planned to be mass-produced in 2026. The energy density of the current soft-pack battery cells has reached 400Wh/kg. The reduction of electrolyte and the introduction of solid oxide electrolytes are beneficial to improving the safety of the battery cells. The compatibility of solid electrolytes with high-energy-density active materials helps to ultimately achieve a high-safety all-solid-state battery with an energy density of over 500Wh/kg [12].

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The current copper price is at a high level in the past year, and the market is cautious due to the upcoming Fed interest rate meeting. After the expected 25BP interest rate cut is implemented, copper prices are expected to continue to strengthen. Although the downstream's ability to absorb the current copper price is average, there is still restocking demand before the double festivals, which provides support for the demand side [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The Shanghai copper price rose first and then fell. The main contract reached a maximum of 81,530. The spot copper price increased by 180 to 81,120, and the spot premium decreased by 5 to 75. The loss of spot imports widened to 230. The LME0 - 3 contango remained around 62, and the premiums of Yangshan copper warehouse receipts and bills of lading both decreased slightly [10]. 3.2行业要闻 - Anglo American and Codelco plan to jointly mine adjacent copper mines in Chile. Once the relevant licenses are in place, it will increase copper production by 2.7 million tons in 21 years, starting in 2030. The expected annual additional copper production is 120,000 tons, with a 15% reduction in unit cost compared to independent operation, and a minimum increase in capital expenditure. The transaction is expected to generate a pre - tax net present value increase of at least $5 billion, shared equally by both parties [11]. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney told Anglo American that if it wants to merge with Teck Resources, it needs to move its headquarters to Canada [11]. - Chile's state - owned mining agency ENAMI's $1.7 billion smelter modernization project has attracted 15 institutions to express investment intentions. The Hernan Videla - Lira smelter in the Atacama region is being renovated, which will enable it to process 850,000 tons of copper concentrate and produce 240,000 tons of cathode copper annually. The deadline for initial bids is the end of October [11][12].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of SHFE zinc are weak, and the inflection point of inventory reduction has not appeared. It maintains a range - bound pattern, with a reference range of 22,000 - 22,600 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc 2510, it closed at 22,255 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or 0.22%, with shrinking volume and reduced positions. The positions decreased by 7,012 lots to 84,991 lots, and the 10 - 11 spread was - 10. SHFE zinc 2511 closed at 22,265 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan or 0.25%, with a position of 87,709 lots, a decrease of 4,294 lots. SHFE zinc 2512 closed at 22,285 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or 0.22%, with a position of 29,089 lots, a decrease of 54,220 lots [7] - **Supply - Side Situation**: The upward momentum of domestic processing fees is insufficient, and local quotes have shown a narrow decline but have not formed a downward trend. The SMM domestic monthly TC for zinc concentrates is 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index has increased by 2.5 dollars/dry ton to 96.25 dollars/dry ton. The price of by - product sulfuric acid has fallen due to supply recovery. Although the comprehensive profit has shrunk, it is still at a relatively high level. In September, more smelters are under maintenance, and some secondary zinc enterprises face rising raw material prices and tight supply. It is expected that the monthly output will decline by 1 - 20,000 tons, with the monthly output expected to be around 600,000 tons, and the supply side generally remains loose [7] - **Demand - Side Situation**: After the military parade, logistics and production restrictions in North and Central China have been lifted, and the start - up of the primary consumption field has increased month - on - month. However, the improvement in the consumption end is slowly transmitted upwards. Social inventories continued to accumulate on Monday, but the accumulation rhythm has slowed down. The inventory performance at home and abroad is differentiated. LME zinc inventory has decreased by 1,175 tons to 48,975 tons. Concerns about overseas refined zinc supply have caused a spot premium, with 0 - 3B at 26.76 [7] 2. Industry News - **0 Zinc Transaction Prices**: On September 16, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,225 - 22,305 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was between 22,335 - 22,435 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 22,155 - 22,235 yuan/ton [8] - **Regional Market Quotes**: In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22,235 - 22,305 yuan/ton. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded between 22,180 - 22,300 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was mainly traded between 22,155 - 22,255 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference has narrowed [8][9] 3. Data Overview - Not provided with specific data content in the summary requirements here

Report Information - Industry: Pig Futures [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] Report Core View - The overall supply - demand situation of live pigs is loose, and the price is still weak. Although there is a slight increase in demand, the supply pressure is relatively greater. Futures are dragged down by the weak spot market and are mainly fluctuating weakly [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 16th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened higher, fluctuated downward, and closed with a negative line. The highest price was 13,335 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,125 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.30% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 8,212 lots to 217,535 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: On the 16th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.08 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. - **Supply - Side**: In September, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises was 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual slaughter in August. The daily average increase was 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly, and the utilization rate of the second - fattening pens remains high. The slaughter weight has declined slightly, and the slaughter volume before the Spring Festival may still show a slight increase in the long term [7]. - **Demand - Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, and the fattening cost is still low. Currently, the second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. After the demand increased due to the start of school, the continuous increment is not obvious. The market demand is mediocre, the sales of白条 are slow, and there is no obvious positive news. Only the external sales volume in a few low - price regions has increased, which supports a slight increase in the开工 rate of enterprises. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the slaughter rate and volume have slightly increased. On September 16th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 149,200 heads, an increase of 12,000 heads from the previous day, a decrease of 7,000 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 90,000 heads month - on - month [7]. 2. Data Overview - **Breeding Profit**: As of September 11th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was 54 yuan/head, a decrease of 45 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 175.8 yuan/head, a decrease of 63 yuan/head week - on - week [12]. - **Piglet Price**: In the week of September 11th, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 394 yuan/head, a decrease of 32 yuan/head from the previous week [12]. - **Price Difference**: In the week of September 11th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.13 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin week - on - week [12]. - **Fattening Cost**: The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg was 13.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 13.52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous week [12]. - **Slaughtering Rate**: In the week of September 11th, the slaughtering rate of enterprises was 31.40%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from the previous week and 4.15 percentage points year - on - year. The weekly slaughtering rate fluctuated between 31.20% and 31.71% [12]. - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of September 11th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.32 kg, an increase of 0.09 kg or 0.07% month - on - month, and an increase of 2.36 kg or 1.84% year - on - year [12].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Pulp Daily [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Conditions and Recommendations - Pulp futures contract 01 had a previous settlement price of 5308 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5350 yuan/ton, rising 0.79% overall. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4980 - 6600 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5680 - 5700 yuan/ton [7] - Arauco of Chile announced the new September wood pulp export prices: softwood pulp Yinxing at 700 USD/ton, down 20 USD/ton from last month; natural pulp Venus at 590 USD/ton, unchanged from last month; hardwood pulp Mingxing at 520 USD/ton, up 20 USD/ton from last month [8] - In August, the European wood pulp inventory was 70.78 million tons, up 3.5% month - on - month and 11.3% year - on - year; the consumption was 70.08 million tons, down 13.7% month - on - month and up 2.4% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in August were 265.3 million tons, down 7.9% month - on - month and 5.6% year - on - year. As of September 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 207.20 million tons, up 0.71% from last week [8] - In the downstream cultural paper market, the restart of previously shut - down production lines led to an increase in supply, but new orders from printing factories were limited, and the market was weak. In the short term, pulp supply was relatively abundant. Although the downstream paper mills'开工 rate increased, they mainly purchased at low prices under cost pressure, and the market continued to fluctuate at a low level [8] Group 3: Industry News - On September 11, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued Announcement No. 21 of 2025, approving the release of 622 recommended national standards and 6 recommended national standard modification orders, including 6 national standards in the papermaking field. Four were revision projects and two were formulation projects. The release and implementation of these standards improved the papermaking standard system and promoted the healthy development of the industry [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts such as import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, and inventory data [15][17][19][28][29][32]

Report General Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researcher: Feng Zeren (Glass, Soda Ash) [4] Report Core Content 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soda ash: The short - term contradiction in the industry has been alleviated, but the supply - demand pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. With the improvement of macro - sentiment, the arrival of the peak season, and the resurgence of anti - involution expectations, the soda ash futures price is expected to fluctuate with a slightly strong trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro changes [8]. - Glass: The overall glass production shows a slight upward trend, and industry profits have improved. Industry inventory has started to accumulate again. Affected by the peak - season demand and anti - involution expectations, the glass futures price is expected to fluctuate with a slightly strong trend in the short term [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market** - On September 16, the price of the main soda ash futures contract SA601 rebounded significantly, closing at 1339 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton or 3.15%, with a daily reduction of 101,682 lots in positions [7]. - Fundamentally, the weekly production growth rate has slowed down, and the inventory reduction has decreased. The high - inventory and weak - demand situation persists. The weekly production reached 761,100 tons, a 1.24% increase from the previous week. The factory inventory decreased to 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 24,600 tons from last Thursday. The total shipment volume was 785,700 tons, a 1.44% decrease from the previous week, and the overall shipment rate was 103.23%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points [8]. - **Glass Market** - Fundamentally, the overall glass production has slightly increased but is still at a low level. Spot prices have rebounded, and industry profits have improved. Deep - processing orders remain basically unchanged, mainly driven by rigid demand, and inventory has started to accumulate again. Different types of glass have different market situations. The supply - side pressure of float glass has been marginally relieved, and the cost side has certain support, but the demand side remains weak. The demand for new - house glass continues to decline, while the production of automobiles and home appliances is increasing, providing some support for glass demand. The photovoltaic glass market has seen a significant price increase [9][10]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy - soda market price, and flat - glass production, with data sources from Wind and iFind [12][15][17]

Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: September 17, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The New York raw sugar futures fluctuated strongly, while the Zhengzhou sugar futures rose first and then fell. The raw sugar price rebounded after finding support at the previous low of 15.5 cents. Currently, the market lacks bullish factors, and the sugar price fluctuates mainly through low - level technical oscillations without a clear direction. The rise and fall of Zhengzhou sugar were mainly affected by the anti - involution atmosphere. After the market closed, there were no major moves from both long and short sides, but large short - position funds slightly reduced their positions, possibly due to the pressure at the high [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes**: SR601 closed at 5,547 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.04%, with an increase of 4,016 in open interest; SR605 closed at 5,524 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.05%, with an increase of 1,766 in open interest; US Sugar 10 closed at 15.96 cents/pound, up 0.17 cents or 1.08%, with a decrease of 21,630 in open interest; US Sugar 03 closed at 16.67 cents/pound, up 0.15 cents or 0.91%, with an increase of 20,865 in open interest [7]. - **Spot Market Quotes**: The spot prices in domestic production areas remained unchanged. The price of sugar in Nanning was 5,940 yuan/ton, and that in Kunming was 5,770 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Brazil**: In August, the sugarcane yield in the central - southern region was 77.5 tons/hectare, slightly lower than 78.8 tons/hectare in the same period in 2024. The sugar content index (ATR) decreased by 2.9% from 148.4 kg/ton of sugarcane to 144.2 kg/ton. From the beginning of the 2025/26 season to August, the average sugarcane yield in the central - southern region decreased by 8.2% year - on - year to 79.2 tons/hectare, and the cumulative ATR was 129.7 kg/ton of sugarcane, compared with 133.2 kg/ton in the same period last year. It is estimated that the sugar production in the central - southern region in the second half of August will increase by 17.3% to 3.84 million tons, the sugarcane crushing volume will increase by 9.5% to 49.5 million tons, the sugar content per kilogram of sugarcane will decrease by 4.1% to 149.48 kg/ton of sugarcane, and the ethanol production will decrease by 2.5% to 2.4 billion liters [9]. - **India**: A government official said that India will have sufficient surplus sugar inventory, allowing sugar exports in the new sugar - crushing season starting on October 1. Indian exports may suppress global sugar prices but support local sugar prices and ensure that farmers receive guaranteed payments for sugarcane from sugar mills. The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) reaffirmed its previous forecast of the total sugar production of 34.9 million tons in the 2025 - 26 season [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Transaction Data of Top 20 Seats in Zhengzhou Sugar Main Contract**: The total trading volume was 249,503 lots, with an increase of 56,227 lots; the total long - position holding volume was 242,600 lots, with an increase of 3,077 lots; the total short - position holding volume was 301,703 lots, with an increase of 6,981 lots [22].