Jian Xin Qi Huo
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白糖日报-20250828
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 01:28
Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: August 28, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - New York raw sugar futures remained volatile, with the main October contract up 0.12% to 16.42 cents per pound, and the London ICE white sugar futures' main October contract up 0.3% to $488.10 per ton. The relatively calm fundamentals of raw sugar and improved weather in Brazil leading to increased sugar production pressured sugar prices [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract weakened. The 01 contract closed at 5,620 yuan per ton, down 38 yuan or 0.67%, with a reduction of 2,979 positions. Domestic spot prices in production areas declined. The pressure from imported sugar is increasing, suppressing domestic sugar prices. After - market, a large number of speculative long - positions were cut, which may lead to further decline [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Futures Market Conditions**: SR509 closed at 5,631 yuan per ton, down 65 yuan or 1.14%, with a position of 9,042 contracts, a decrease of 2,316 contracts; SR601 closed at 5,620 yuan per ton, down 38 yuan or 0.67%, with a position of 363,151 contracts, a decrease of 2,979 contracts; US sugar 10 closed at 16.42 cents per pound, up 0.02 cents or 0.12%, with a position of 360,587 contracts, a decrease of 5,802 contracts; US sugar 03 closed at 17.14 cents per pound, up 0.05 cents or 0.29%, with a position of 261,997 contracts, an increase of 1,326 contracts [7]. - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou sugar's main contract weakened. Domestic spot prices in production areas declined, with Nanning sugar quoted at 5,980 yuan and Kunming sugar at 5,800 yuan. The pressure from imported sugar is increasing, and the large - scale cutting of speculative long - positions may lead to further decline [8]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - **Brazilian Sugar Production Forecast**: Conab lowered Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons, a 3.1% reduction from the April forecast. The central - southern region's sugar production is now estimated at 40.6 million tons, a 2.8% decrease from the April forecast. However, Brazil's sugar production is still expected to increase by 0.8% compared to the previous season [9]. - **ICE Futures + Options Positions**: As of the week ending August 19, the total position of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1,038,222 contracts, a decrease of 2,291 contracts from the previous week. Speculative long - positions were 179,365 contracts, a decrease of 11,403 contracts; speculative short - positions were 310,352 contracts, an increase of 4,227 contracts; speculative net short - positions were 130,987 contracts, an increase of 15,630 contracts [9]. - **Guangxi Sugar Inventory**: As of August 20, the inventory of Guangxi's third - party sugar warehouses was about 770,000 tons, an increase of about 310,000 tons compared to the same period last year, slightly lower than the five - year average. In August, the inventory decreased by about 140,000 tons compared to July, and the destocking speed slowed down significantly [9]. - **Brazilian Port Shipping**: As of the week ending August 20, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 70, down from 76 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.9169 million tons, a decrease of 401,000 tons or 12.08% from the previous week. Among them, the quantity of high - grade raw sugar (VHP) was 2.7282 million tons [9]. - **Chinese Syrup and Premixed Powder Imports**: In July, China imported 45,400 tons of syrup and white sugar premixed powder under tariff number 1702.90, a decrease of 182,800 tons or 80.12% year - on - year. The average landed price was 3,373.30 yuan per ton, a decrease of 292.96 yuan per ton month - on - month and 294.70 yuan per ton year - on - year, at a relatively low level in the past six years [9]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - **Data Charts**: The report provides multiple data charts, including spot price trends, contract basis, spreads, import profits, warehouse receipts, exchange rates, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of Zhengzhou sugar's main contract, with data sources from Wind and Zhengshang, and analyzed by the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][19][25]
建信期货棉花日报-20250828
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 01:27
Report Information - Report Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The cotton market is in a state of shock adjustment with limited fundamental changes. Overseas, the short - term external market is difficult to break out of the range - bound situation, while in the domestic market, the new cotton acquisition is awaited for guidance, and the market is observing the traditional peak season [7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton is in shock adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 1,5342 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream sales basis quotes for 2024/25 northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton and southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked cotton are given. The cotton yarn market has normal transactions, mainly with regular yarns. Spinning enterprises are still limiting production, and the market confidence is generally not strong. The cotton fabric market has little change in trading atmosphere, and the sales are flat [7] - Overseas, the weekly US cotton export sales data has weakened, the drought coverage rate in major cotton - growing areas has increased, the good - quality rate has slightly decreased week - on - week, and the CFTC fund net long position remains low. In the domestic market, the Xinjiang cotton area is in the boll - opening and flocculation stage. There are rumors of more pre - sales of new cotton, and the expectation of抢购 at the time of listing has increased, but the expected stable and increasing output also brings pressure in the long - term. The finished product inventory of cotton yarn continues to decline slightly, and the fabric factory's shipment is not as good as that of the yarn factory [8] 2. Industry News - As of the week ending August 23, Brazil's (98%) total cotton harvesting progress was 60.3%, a 11.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and 15.8% slower than the same period last year, mainly due to the lag in Mato Grosso state [9] - As of the week ending August 24, the boll - setting rate of US cotton was 81%, the flocculation rate was 20%, and the good - quality rate was 54% [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts on the cotton market, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads, inventories, and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][25]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250828
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 01:23
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report - Date: August 28, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team - Researchers: Liu Youran, Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Feng Zeren [3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Pulp futures 01 contract: The previous settlement price was 5,392 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.89%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,000 - 6,650 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The quote for Shandong Silver Star was 5,720 - 5,750 yuan/ton [7] - Arauco's August wood pulp FOB prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star at $720/ton, natural pulp Venus at $590/ton, and hardwood pulp Star at $520/ton, remaining stable compared to June quotes [8] - Global pulp data: In June, the chemical commodity pulp shipments of the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with coniferous pulp down 2.4% and hardwood pulp up 10.1%. In July 2025, the European wood pulp inventory was 683,200 tons, a 0.3% month - on - month decrease and an 8.7% year - on - year increase; the European wood pulp consumption was 814,200 tons, a 6.8% month - on - month increase and a 2.1% year - on - year decrease. China's pulp imports in July were 2.877 million tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 23.7% year - on - year increase. As of August 21, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 1.59% month - on - month. In July, the cumulative year - on - year profit of the papermaking and paper products industry decreased by 21.9%, with the decline slightly expanding [8] Operation Suggestions - With limited cost guidance and a loose supply, waiting for the peak - season demand to emerge, pulp is in a low - level oscillatory adjustment [8] Group 3: Industry News - Suzano plans to adjust pulp order prices next month. The pulp prices in China and other Asian countries will be increased by $20/ton, while those in Europe and the US will be increased by $80/ton. Analysts from BTG Pactual are positive about this measure, believing that the current price of nearly $500/ton in China is "unsustainably low". Bradesco BBI expects the commodity price to reach $550/ton in the next few months, supported by more favorable seasonal factors at the end of the third quarter, the Sino - US trade truce, and possible supply restrictions due to high production costs [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, coniferous - hardwood price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, copperplate paper and offset paper prices and price differences, white cardboard and whiteboard paper prices and price differences, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][22][29][32]
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250828
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 01:23
Report Overview - Report Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Eggs [1] Report Core View - The peak season for egg prices started late this year, and the market pressure became evident in late July. The supply pressure is significant, and the expected price rebound in August did not materialize. Near - month and main - contract futures prices have dropped significantly. It is not recommended to buy at the bottom currently. A rebound may occur after the increase in culling and the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day备货, but it is difficult to time. The overall egg market has an oversupply situation. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter if low egg prices affect subsequent replenishment, and short - term market fluctuations are large, so risk avoidance is advised [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The national egg price rose today. The average price in the main production areas was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin from yesterday, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.34 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin. The 2509 contract closed at 2896, down 18 (-0.62%), with a trading volume of 23,595 and an open interest of 37,187 (down 8,178). The 2510 contract closed at 2975, down 36 (-1.20%), with a trading volume of 554,418 and an open interest of 515,876 (up 44,842). The 2511 contract closed at 3028, down 28 (-0.92%), with a trading volume of 117,461 and an open interest of 216,611 (up 16,616) [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Do not buy at the bottom currently. Wait for the increase in culling and the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day备货 to potentially drive a rebound, but it is difficult to time. Avoid risks in the short - term as the market has large fluctuations [8] 2. Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens Inventory**: As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of in - production laying hens was about 1.356 billion, a 1.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year increase, showing a continuous upward trend for 7 months [9] - **Chick Hatchling Volume**: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, less than that in June and the same period in 2024, but still a moderately high monthly replenishment volume in the past 8 years. The decrease in July was the first year - on - year decrease this year [9] - **Culling Situation**: In the three weeks up to August 21, the national culling volume showed an upward trend. As of August 21, the average culling age was 500 days, 6 days earlier than last week and last month [10]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250828
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 01:22
Report Overview - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, the soybean meal has pulled back due to the expected Sino - US trade consultations and the better - than - expected good rate of US soybeans. In the medium - term, considering the 23% tariff on imported US soybeans, China may mainly import Brazilian soybeans and some Argentine soybeans in the fourth quarter, with a possible small import gap to be filled by state - reserve auctions. The cost of imported soybeans is likely to rise steadily in the fourth quarter, and the market should be treated as bullish after corrections [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Review**: - For the futures contracts of soybean meal, the prices of contracts 2601, 2509, and 2511 all decreased. For example, the closing price of the 2601 contract was 3045, down 52 or 1.68% from the previous settlement price; the 2509 contract closed at 2992, down 54 or 1.77%; and the 2511 contract closed at 3010, down 59 or 1.92%. The trading volume and changes in open interest also varied among different contracts [6] - The US soybean futures contracts on the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1045 cents. The recent pull - back of soybean meal was mainly due to the expected Sino - US trade consultations and the better - than - expected good rate of US soybeans. The approaching US soybean harvest season has increased the pressure on US farmers, and China has not purchased new - season US soybeans yet. The USDA's latest reported good rate of US soybeans is 69%, the highest in the past five years [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: In the medium - term, with the 23% tariff on imported US soybeans remaining unchanged, the market should be treated as bullish after corrections [7] 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - Pro Farmer predicts that the average yield per acre of US corn will reach a record 182.7 bushels per acre, with a total output of 1.6204 billion bushels. For soybeans, the average yield per acre is also expected to set a new record at 53.0 bushels per acre, with a total output of 424.6 million bushels [10] - Pakistan is expected to sign an important procurement agreement with major US soybean exporters, planning to import about 1.1 million tons of soybeans with a total transaction value of about $500 million [10] - A Brazilian federal judge approved a ban, temporarily suspending a decision of the Brazilian antitrust regulatory agency CADE, which had required grain traders in the world's largest soybean exporter to stop the so - called "Amazon soybean ban" plan [11] 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - The content provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, but specific data analysis is not provided [13][16][19]
贵金属日评-20250828
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 01:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's concern about the loss of control over US fiscal and financial discipline has resurfaced. The Fed may restart the interest - rate cut process in September, with a relatively moderate pace. Gold's safe - haven demand is strongly boosted, and its volatility has increased while the medium - term upward trend remains intact. London gold is expected to trade in a wide range between $3120 - $3500 per ounce before rising again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - From late April to now, London gold has been trading in a wide range between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The reduction in international trade uncertainty weakens gold's safe - haven demand, but the restructuring of the international trade currency system and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations continue to support the gold price. The restructuring of the international trade currency system and the expected economic slowdown and central bank interest - rate cuts will support the long - and medium - term bull markets of gold. However, the high price and P/E ratio also mean increased volatility. In the short term, London gold will continue to consolidate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range. The central bank's easing expectations may support the silver price in the medium - to - short term. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and avoid full - position chasing or blind short - selling [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - Trump fired Fed Governor Cook on suspicion of mortgage law violations, and Cook vowed to fight back, which raised market concerns about the loss of control over US fiscal and financial discipline. The Fed may restart the interest - rate cut process in September, with a relatively moderate pace. London gold failed to break through the $3400 per ounce mark and then pulled back, but the support level in the pull - back is gradually rising. Trump's new policies are accelerating the restructuring of the global political and economic landscape, boosting gold's safe - haven demand. Gold's volatility has increased, and it is expected to trade in a wide range between $3120 - $3500 per ounce before rising again. This week, attention should be paid to Fed officials' statements, US July PCE prices, China's August PMI, and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - From late April to now, London gold has been trading in a wide range between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The reduction in international trade uncertainty weakens gold's safe - haven demand, but the restructuring of the international trade currency system and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations continue to support the gold price. In June, speculative funds flooded into the silver and platinum markets. In July, the silver price fluctuated significantly due to the expectation of anti - involution policies, and the London gold - silver ratio stabilized slightly after falling to 86. The restructuring of the international trade currency system and the expected economic slowdown and central bank interest - rate cuts will support the long - and medium - term bull markets of gold. However, the high price and P/E ratio also mean increased volatility. In the short term, London gold will continue to consolidate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range. The central bank's easing expectations may support the silver price in the medium - to - short term. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and avoid full - position chasing or blind short - selling [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T+D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Fed Governor Cook will sue to prevent Trump from firing her, which may lead to a long - term legal battle. Trump wants to quickly announce a candidate to replace Cook, with potential candidates including White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Milan and former World Bank President Malpass [17]. - US new orders for key capital goods in July increased more than expected, indicating strong business equipment spending at the beginning of the third quarter. However, consumers' assessment of the labor market has deteriorated, with the August consumer expectation for their job - seeking ability dropping to the lowest level in more than four years [17]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin predicts a moderate interest - rate adjustment, expecting no major changes in economic activity for the rest of the year [17].
建信期货国债日报-20250828
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 01:17
Report Information - Industry: Treasury Bonds [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the bullish foundation of the bond market remains unchanged due to the "moderately loose" monetary policy orientation and high tariff uncertainties. Short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect since late June has pressured the bond market. Although the July fundamental data shows short - term resilience, the bond market's short - term rebound is unlikely to form a trend. However, with the slowdown of the A - share rally and the central bank's support for the capital market, the bond market may continue its short - term rebound, and the subsequent adjustment of the A - share market should be monitored [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: A - shares tumbled in the afternoon, boosting risk - aversion sentiment and leading to a full - line rebound in treasury bond futures. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds showed short - term decline and long - term increase with narrow fluctuations. The central bank's net capital withdrawal did not prevent the inter - bank capital market from loosening [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: Long - term bullish factors remain, but short - term pressure from the stock - bond seesaw exists. The bond market may continue its short - term rebound, and the A - share adjustment should be watched [11][12] 3.2 Industry News - Fiscal policy has been more active this year, with the issuance and use of government bonds accelerating. As of August 26, the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds reached 996 billion yuan (76.6% of the total), and the issuance of local government special bonds exceeded last year's level. The government may introduce incremental policies and expand the use of local government special bonds [13] - The State Council issued an opinion on implementing the "Artificial Intelligence +" action to promote the integration of AI in various industries, aiming to address issues such as inconsistent understanding of AI and difficulties in application [14] - After Trump dismissed Fed Governor Lisa Cook, the market worried about the damage to the Fed's independence, leading to a sell - off of US dollar assets and a rise in gold [15] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The trading data of various treasury bond futures contracts on August 27 are presented, including prices, trading volumes, and positions. Also, information on inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and trends of major contracts is provided [6] - **Money Market**: Data on SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, and inter - bank repurchase rates are presented [31][35] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swap fixed - rate curves is provided [37]
建信期货股指日评-20250828
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 01:16
huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 28 日 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾: 8 月 27 日,万得全 A 低开后震荡上行,午后大幅跳水,收跌 1.74%,超 4700 支个股下跌;指数现货方面,沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别 下跌 1.49%、1.73%、1.46%、1.87%。指数期货表现强于现货,IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收跌 1.46%、1.70%、1.14%、1.73%(按前一交易日收盘价为基准计 算)。 | | | 1.2 后市展望 ...
锌期货日报-20250827
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 03:15
Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The pattern of strong external and weak internal markets continues. The external market is supported by interest - rate cut expectations and low inventories, making it prone to rise and difficult to fall. The internal market is driven by the external market and is unlikely to experience a significant decline. The Shanghai zinc will fluctuate within the middle - lower track of the Bollinger Bands [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc 2510 closed at 22,270 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan, a decrease of 0.38%. It showed a pattern of shrinking volume and increasing positions, with positions increasing by 3,459 to 108,718 hands. The 09 - 10 spread turned to B15. LME zinc stocks decreased by 2,550 tons to 65,525 tons, with a 0 - 3 spread of C2.95, an Shanghai - London ratio of 0.79, and an exchange - excluded ratio of 1.11. The loss of zinc ingot imports widened to - 1,825.37 yuan/ton, and the import window remained closed. In August, long - term contracts were the main form of imports [7]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The processing fee for imported zinc ore continued to rise, with the zinc concentrate index increasing by 2.2 dollars/dry ton to 92 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC remaining flat at 3,900 yuan/metal ton. The refinery operating rate remained at a high level, and with few domestic overhauls in August, the refined zinc output was expected to increase to 621,500 tons, keeping the supply side abundant. At the end of the off - season, downstream demand remained weak. Affected by the military parade, environmental protection became stricter, restricting production and transportation in North China. The operating rates of galvanizing and zinc oxide were expected to hover at low levels. Downstream purchasing sentiment was low, with the Shanghai market at a discount of 20 yuan to the 09 contract, the Tianjin market at a discount of 20 yuan to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market at a discount of 65 yuan/ton to the 10 contract [7]. 2. Industry News - **Price and Quotation in Different Regions**: On August 26, 2025, in the Shanghai market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,255 - 22,340 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan zinc was between 22,355 - 22,430 yuan/ton. In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22,245 - 22,310 yuan/ton. In the Tianjin market, the 0 zinc ingot was mainly traded between 22,220 - 22,320 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded between 22,210 - 22,310 yuan/ton, and the spread between Shanghai and Guangdong widened [8][9]. 3. Data Overview - **Data Charts**: The report includes charts such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, the SHFE monthly spread, the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13]
建信期货铜期货日报-20250827
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 03:15
Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The copper market is currently in a transition period between the off - season and peak season. With the withdrawal of the waste copper investment promotion policy, the short - term output of recycled copper rods has decreased, leading to an increase in the substitution consumption of refined copper rods. It is expected that domestic inventories will decline in the future, and LME inventories will be transferred to China with the import window open. The low - inventory support logic will continue, and copper prices are likely to rise rather than fall [10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper market oscillated and declined. The US dollar rose against major currencies, and the market digested Powell's speech. The upward trend of A - shares paused, and the market's bullish sentiment decreased. Nearly 4 billion yuan of funds flowed out of industrial products. Shanghai copper retraced throughout the day and closed lower at the end of the session. The near - month back spread widened to 40, the spot price increased by 190 to 79,585, the spot premium decreased by 10 to 130. The spot import profit was 150, the Shanghai - London ratio dropped to 8.09, and the LME0 - 3 contango structure narrowed to 78. The market is optimistic about the September premium, and holders are firm on prices [10] 2. Industry News - First Quantum Minerals abandoned the plan to sell its stake in Zambian copper mines. On August 25, it announced that a $1 billion gold deal had alleviated its balance - sheet pressure, so it shelved the plan to sell its minority stake in two Zambian copper mines [11] - Ivanhoe Mines advanced the drainage plan for the Kamoa copper project. After the drainage of the eastern area of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine was completed, mining operations are expected to resume early next year. The company also plans to release new production forecasts in the coming weeks [11] - The US plans to include copper and potash in the list of critical minerals. The US government will add copper, potash, silicon, silver, lead, and rhenium to the draft list of critical minerals, while tellurium and arsenic will be removed [12]