Jian Xin Qi Huo
Search documents
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250827
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:42
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Futures opened higher and fluctuated, supporting market sentiment. Some traders raised prices, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks according to orders. Despite short - term supply surplus, demand is transitioning to the peak season, and downstream overall operating rates are expected to rise. With policy attention on chemical over - capacity and weekend macro - positive news, polyolefins are expected to oscillate strongly [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Plastic Futures**: L2601 opened higher, rose first and then fell, closing at 7402 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.12%), with 250,000 lots traded and positions increasing by 13,732 to 407,610 lots. PP2601 closed at 7046 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (-0.30%), with positions increasing by 5561 to 474,300 lots [3][4]. - **Market Situation**: A new 450,000 - tonne unit in Ningbo Daxie Phase II is planned to be put into operation at the end of August, and another 450,000 - tonne unit in September. Although supply surplus persists in the short - term, demand is moving towards the peak season [4]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On August 26, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 730,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (-2.67%) from the previous working day, compared with 760,000 tons in the same period last year [5]. - **PE Market**: PE market prices were strong. LLDPE prices in North China were 7250 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton, and in South China 7450 - 7800 yuan/ton [5]. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 6450 - 6490 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Downstream demand improved, and production enterprises mainly maintained stable prices [5]. - **PP Market**: The domestic PP market was mostly stable, with price adjustments ranging from 10 - 30 yuan/ton. Upstream producers' prices were mostly stable, and downstream procurement was mainly for low - price rigid needs [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][13][15]
建信期货原油日报-20250827
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:41
Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - U.S. peak - season crude consumption this year shows no significant improvement. With rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, oil prices may bottom - out and rebound in the short term, but the upside is limited. Medium - term prices may decline again under inventory pressure [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI主力: Opened at $63.88, closed at $64.74, with a high of $65.10, a low of $63.53, a daily increase of 1.7%, and trading volume of 16.89 million lots [6] - Brent主力: Opened at $67.39, closed at $68.20, with a high of $68.49, a low of $67.04, a daily increase of 1.46%, and trading volume of 18.8 million lots [6] - As of the week ending on the 15th, U.S. crude inventories declined more than expected due to a rebound in crude exports, which reached 4.37 million barrels per day, the highest since April. However, refined - oil consumption remained weak, with gasoline demand at 8.842 million barrels per day, down both year - on - year and month - on - month [6] 2. Industry News - White House trade advisor Navarro criticized Europe for still buying Russian oil [8] - India will buy oil from the most advantageous sources, including Russia [8] - Zelensky said Russia was attacking Ukraine's natural - gas production facilities [8] - Alberta in Canada is considering investing in Japanese refineries to reduce dependence on the U.S. market [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including WTI and Brent prices, fund positions, and inventory data, with data sources from wind, CFTC, Bloomberg, and EIA [11][13][14]
建信期货PTA日报-20250827
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:41
Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: PTA Daily Report [1] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - TA2601 closed at 4,870 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (0.08%), with a settlement price of 4,882 yuan/ton and an increase of 24,436 lots in open interest. TA2509 closed at 4,830 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 106,287 lots, a decrease of 22,438 lots [6] - With the crude oil market showing weak oscillations, PTA is in a state of de - stocking but not short of supply. The polyester film equipment downstream has stopped production, and the polyester operating rate has slightly declined. It is estimated that the PTA market will slightly decline [6] Group 3: Industry News - The US is expected to impose more sanctions on a European country, and Ukraine's attacks on the European country's energy infrastructure may disrupt supply. Crude oil futures in Europe and the US have risen for four consecutive trading days. On August 25, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 was $64.80 per barrel, up $1.14 (1.79%); Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 settled at $68.80 per barrel, up $1.07 (1.58%) [10] - The price of PX in the Chinese market was estimated at $864 - 866 per ton, up $7 per ton; in the South Korean market, it was estimated at $844 - 846 per ton, up $7 per ton. There is still a possibility that some domestic PX plants may shut down, and the new PTA production capacity on the demand side has been realized, enhancing market participants' confidence in the future, but no transactions were reported on the day [10] - The price of PTA in the East China market was 4,877 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The average daily negotiation basis was a discount of 6 yuan/ton against the 2601 futures contract, a decrease of 36 yuan [10]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250827
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:41
Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 01 had a previous settlement price of 5,398 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5,358 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.74%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,060 - 6,700 yuan/ton, with the low - end price down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5,780 - 5,800 yuan/ton [7] - Chile's Arauco announced its new August wood pulp export prices: softwood pulp Yinxing at $720/ton, natural pulp Jinxing at $590/ton, and hardwood pulp Mingxing at $520/ton, remaining stable compared to June. In June, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with softwood pulp down 2.4% and hardwood pulp up 10.1%. In July 2025, the European wood pulp inventory was 683,200 tons, down 0.3% month - on - month and up 8.7% year - on - year; the consumption was 814,200 tons, up 6.8% month - on - month and down 2.1% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in July were 2.877 million tons, down 5.1% month - on - month and up 23.7% year - on - year. As of August 21, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 1.59% month - on - month. With limited cost guidance and ample supply, the pulp market is in a low - level oscillatory adjustment, awaiting the peak - season demand [8] Industry News - On August 25, Zhejiang Rongsheng Environmental Protection Paper Co., Ltd. announced a cogeneration energy - saving and carbon - reduction intelligent transformation project with a total investment of 177.83 million yuan. After the project is put into operation, a new 90t/h high - temperature and high - pressure circulating fluidized - bed solid - waste boiler will be added to the Rongsheng Environmental Protection thermoelectric production line. The existing 1 - 3 coal - fired boilers will no longer co - fire solid waste, forming an operation mode of 4 boilers and 2 generators. The overall coal consumption of the enterprise will remain unchanged, and the general solid - waste treatment capacity will increase to 210,640 tons per year. The project can save 80,200 tons of standard coal and reduce carbon emissions by 4,971 tons [9] Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts such as import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main - port pulp inventories, European main - port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][22][29][32]
建信期货国债日报-20250827
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:41
Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the long - term, the Politburo meeting in July maintained the stance of "moderate easing" for monetary policy, and the uncertainty of tariffs remains high. There is a risk of a post - export - rush decline, so the bull - market foundation remains unchanged. In the short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect has strengthened since late June. The bullish equity market has put pressure on the bond market. Although the economic data in July weakened marginally, it still showed short - term resilience, making it difficult to trigger a significant increase in easing sentiment. A short - term bond - market rebound does not constitute a trend. Currently, the upward momentum of the A - share market has slowed, the bond market's sensitivity to the stock market has decreased, and with the central bank's active support for the capital market, bond - market sentiment has improved, and short - term varieties are more resilient than long - term ones [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The A - share market shrank and declined in the afternoon, boosting long - term bond sentiment. Long - term treasury bond futures closed significantly higher. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds across all maturities declined, with long - term yields falling mostly within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.75750%, down 0.6bp [8][9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank's net withdrawal did not prevent the inter - bank funding market from loosening. There were 580.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing. The central bank conducted 405.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 474.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index declined. Short - term funding rates showed mixed trends, with the overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits falling 3.5bp to 1.315% and the 7 - day rate falling 2.82bp to 1.49%. Medium - and long - term funds rose slightly, with the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rising 4bp to around 1.64% [10] 2. Industry News - The Party Committee of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized further deepening industrial assistance to Tibet. Central state - owned enterprises are encouraged to develop characteristic plateau industries in Tibet, increase investment in infrastructure, and promote major projects such as the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and the Sichuan - Tibet Railway. They should also enhance ethnic unity through various means [13] - The 13th plenary session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held, with discussions on formulating the "15th Five - Year Plan". Different committee members put forward suggestions on developing new - quality productive forces, integrating the digital economy with the real economy, boosting consumption, and enhancing scientific and technological innovation capabilities. The US Secretary of Commerce said that details of the US - Japan agreement would be announced this week, involving Japan's commitment of $550 billion in investment in the US for domestic production of semiconductors, antibiotics, and rare earths [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data on the trading of treasury bond futures contracts on August 26, including opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and position changes, were provided. Also, information on the inter - maturity spreads of main treasury bond futures contracts and inter - variety spreads (2 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year; 5 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year; 10 - year vs 30 - year) and the trends of main treasury bond futures contracts were mentioned [6][15][16] - **Money Market**: Information on the term - structure changes and trends of SHIBOR, the changes in the weighted inter - bank pledged - repurchase interest rates, and the changes in the inter - bank deposit pledged - repurchase interest rates were provided [30][34] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) was provided [36]
纯碱、玻璃日报-20250827
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:41
Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand, with over - supply and inventory accumulation hard to ease in the short term, and the upstream coal price has peaked, so the soda ash futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For glass, the industry is in a weak supply - demand balance, the market is concerned about the anti - involution policy, and the glass futures main contract will show a short - term oscillatory trend [8][9] Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash**: On August 26, the main soda ash futures SA601 contract fluctuated downward, closing at 1311 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.79% and a daily increase in positions of 13,450 lots. Fundamentally, the production increased and the inventory remained at a high level. The weekly production of soda ash rose to 771,400 tons, a 1.32% week - on - week increase. The factory inventory increased to 1.9108 million tons, a 0.71% increase from Monday. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased to 87,000 tons, and the daily melting volume of float glass remained stable. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remained unchanged [7][8] - **Glass**: Fundamentally, the daily melting volume of glass was flat compared with last week, the inventory continued to accumulate, and the weekly LOW - E glass start - up rate was basically the same as before. The industry was in a weak supply - demand balance. In terms of profit, the profit of float glass using coal - gas as fuel increased, while those using natural gas and petroleum coke decreased by double - digits. The market is focused on the expected trend of the anti - involution policy. The glass futures main contract will show a short - term oscillatory trend [9] - **Transaction Data**: The trading data of soda ash and glass futures on August 26 are shown in Table 1, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, change, change rate, position volume, and position volume change of different contracts such as SA509, SA601, FG509, and FG601 [7] 2. Data Overview - Multiple charts are provided, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and iFind [11][15][18]
建信期货生猪日报-20250827
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:40
Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the terminal and second - fattening demand may increase in the second half of the month, and the supply - demand situation may improve slightly, leading to a potential low - level rebound in spot pig prices. The near - month 2509 futures contract may follow the spot price with a small rebound at the bottom. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak demand season, with a small increase in pig supply and a relatively large increase in demand. Along with factors like pork stockpiling, initiatives for high - quality development, and strengthened environmental protection, the medium - to - long - term pig prices are expected to rebound [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 26th, the main 2511 pig futures contract opened lower, then fluctuated upwards and closed with a positive candle. The highest price was 13,895 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,770 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,860 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,305 lots to 181,393 lots [8]. - **Spot Market**: On the 26th, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 13.63 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, and the fattening cost remains low, increasing the expectation of second - fattening at low prices, which may reduce the slaughter pressure of farmers. The current demand is still in the seasonal off - season, with terminal demand remaining at a low level on a month - on - month basis. As students start school in the second half of the month, terminal demand may gradually pick up. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, and the slaughtering rate and volume have increased slightly. On August 26th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 140,300 heads, an increase of 100 heads from the previous day and the same as that of a week ago [9]. - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August was 24.72 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% compared with the actual slaughter volume in July. The slaughter volume is expected to increase significantly, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens remains high, with second - fattened pigs being continuously released, so the slaughter pressure still exists. The average slaughter weight has slightly declined, and the weight pressure on farmers has weakened in the second half of the month. In the long run, pig slaughter may continue to increase slightly [9]. 2. Industry News - No specific news content provided, only figure information about breeding profit, cost, etc. 3. Data Overview - **Breeding Profit**: As of August 21st, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 78 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head; the average profit per pig from purchasing piglets was - 57.6 yuan/head, also a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head [14]. - **Piglet Price**: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of August 21st was 463 yuan/head, a decrease of 21 yuan/head from the previous week [14]. - **Slaughter Volume**: In the week of August 21st, the slaughter volume of the slaughter sample was 1.675 million heads, an increase of 41,500 heads from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 2.54%. The average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 140,238 heads, an increase of 1,792 heads from the previous week, with an average daily increase of 1.29% [14]. - **Planned Slaughter Volume**: The planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August was 24.72 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% compared with July [14]. - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of August 21st, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 127.98 kg, an increase of 0.16 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13% [14].
建信期货MEG日报-20250827
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:36
Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Short - term, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol has not changed significantly. Affected by the improvement of macro - market sentiment, it is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound trend [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes**: The closing price of EG2601 was 4,490 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan, with a position of 151,958 contracts and an increase of 17,061 contracts. The closing price of EG2509 was 4,440 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan, with a position of 51,447 contracts and a decrease of 10,243 contracts. On the 26th, the main contract of ethylene glycol futures opened at 4,510 yuan/ton, reached a high of 4,521 yuan/ton, a low of 4,486 yuan/ton, settled at 4,507 yuan/ton, and closed at 4,490 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 151,958 lots, and the position was 286,272 lots [7] 2. Industry News - **Crude Oil Market**: It is expected that the US will impose more sanctions on a certain European country, and Ukraine's attacks on the energy infrastructure of a certain European country may disrupt supply. European and American crude oil futures have risen for four consecutive trading days. On Monday (August 25), the settlement price of the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.80 per barrel, up $1.14 or 1.79% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.53 - $65.1. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.80 per barrel, up $1.07 or 1.58% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.57 - $69.07 [8] - **Ethylene Glycol Market in Zhangjiagang**: The spot negotiation price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang this week is 4,538 - 4,540 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The spot negotiation price next week is 4,543 - 4,545 yuan/ton, and the negotiation price for the end of September is 4,543 - 4,545 yuan/ton. The basis of this week's spot is at a premium of 48 - 50 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, the basis of next week's spot is at a premium of 53 - 55 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, and the basis for the end of September is at a premium of 53 - 55 yuan/ton compared to EG2601 [8] - **Industry Operation**: The operation of PX and ethylene glycol is stable. A 2.2 - million - ton (designed capacity, actual 2.5 - million - ton) PTA plant in East China is under maintenance, and the PTA operation rate has decreased by 2.58 percentage points. A 200,000 - ton polyester film plant of Ningbo Jinyuan has stopped for maintenance, and the polyester operation rate has decreased by 0.23 percentage points [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including PTA - MEG price difference, MEG price, MEG futures price, futures - spot price difference, international crude oil futures main - contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16][18]
建信期货铁矿石日评-20250826
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 03:13
Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On August 25, the main iron ore futures contract 2601 fluctuated upward, closing at 787.0 yuan/ton, up 2.27%. The accident at Rio Tinto's SimFer mine in Guinea has a limited impact, but it has boosted the overall bullish sentiment. The supply of iron ore may show a pattern of low first and high later, while the demand remains strong, and the reduction in production may be less than expected, which also provides some support for the ore price. The demand for downstream steel products has recovered this week, but the sustainability needs to be observed. Overall, the current bullish sentiment is strong, and the actual impact of production cuts in Tangshan and the impact of the September 3 parade on the demand for downstream construction steel products need to be further observed [7][10][11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - Spot Market: On August 25, the main iron ore outer market quotes increased by 2 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main-grade iron ore at Qingdao Port increased by 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9] - Technical Analysis: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract formed a golden cross, and the green column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract began to narrow [9] 1.2 Outlook - News: On August 23, Rio Tinto announced that an employee of a contracting company died in an accident at the SimFer mine in Guinea on August 22. All activities at the SimFer mine have been suspended. The impact of the accident is limited, and production is expected to resume soon, but the overall bullish sentiment has been boosted [10] - Supply: The weekly shipment volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased last week. Considering the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival volume may show a pattern of low first and high later [11] - Demand: Currently, the production enthusiasm of enterprises remains at a relatively high level, and the molten iron output has increased for two consecutive weeks, still remaining at a relatively high level of over 2.4 million tons. Regarding the September 3 production restrictions, according to Mysteel research, some steel enterprises reported receiving oral notices on the morning of the 17th, but whether to reduce production still depends on future weather conditions. From the current weather situation, the production reduction may be less than expected, which also provides some support for the ore price [11] - Downstream: The demand for steel products has recovered this week, but the sustainability needs to be observed. Considering that infrastructure projects in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region may face phased shutdowns before September 3, and the expansion of US steel and aluminum tariffs, a cautious attitude is recommended [11] 2. Industry News - On the afternoon of August 25, the Market Committee of the China Coking Industry Association held a special market analysis meeting. Representatives of key coking enterprises from Shanxi, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and other places attended the meeting. The participating representatives agreed that the coking market should raise prices again as soon as possible. The participating enterprises reached the following resolutions: Starting from 0:00 on August 26, the price of tamping wet quenched coke for steel mill customers will be increased by 50 yuan/ton, the price of tamping dry quenched coke will be increased by 55 yuan/ton, and the price of top-loaded coke will be increased by 75 yuan/ton [12] 3. Data Overview - The report provides a series of data charts, including the price of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price difference between high-grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the price difference between low-grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis of iron ore spot and January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipment volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, the trading volume of iron ore at main ports, the available days of iron ore inventory in steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the inventory and port clearance volume of iron ore at ports, the tax-free molten iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and ironmaking capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average molten iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [16][23][39]
锌期货日报-20250826
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 03:13
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market Quotes: - For SHFE Zinc 2509, the opening price was 22,230 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,375 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan or 0.52%, with a trading volume of 38,685 lots and a decrease of 4,326 lots in open interest [7]. - For SHFE Zinc 2510, the opening price was 22,220 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,395 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan or 0.67%, with a trading volume of 105,259 lots and a decrease of 2,533 lots in open interest [7]. - For SHFE Zinc 2511, the opening price was 22,210 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,390 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan or 0.72%, with a trading volume of 38,208 lots and an increase of 1,139 lots in open interest [7]. - Market Analysis: The speech at the Jackson Hole meeting signaled a potential interest rate cut, leading to a continuous recovery in risk appetite and a general rise in the non - ferrous metals sector. The main SHFE Zinc contract 2510 closed at 22,395 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan or 0.67%, with increased volume and decreased open interest. The 09 - 10 spread was C20. The LME market was closed for the Summer Bank Holiday. The import zinc concentrate processing fee continued to rise, with the zinc concentrate index increasing by 2.2 dollars/dry ton to 92 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC remained stable at 3,900 yuan/metal ton. Refinery operating rates remained high, and domestic maintenance in August was limited, with refined zinc production expected to increase to 621,500 tons, keeping the supply side abundant. Downstream demand remained weak at the end of the off - season, and due to the impact of the military parade, environmental protection became stricter, restricting production and transportation in North China. The operating rates of galvanizing and zinc oxide were expected to hover at low levels. The external market was supported by interest rate cut expectations and low inventories, making it prone to rise and difficult to fall. The pattern of a strong external market and a weak domestic market continued. The domestic market was driven by the external market and was unlikely to fall deeply. SHFE Zinc was in a wide - range oscillation, and in the short term, it might test the 22,500 yuan/ton mark [7]. Group 3: Industry News - On August 25, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,340 - 22,415 yuan/ton, Shuangyan was traded between 22,450 - 22,525 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc was traded between 22,270 - 22,345 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 10 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the market. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, Honglu - v was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, Huize was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, and high - end brand Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22,300 - 22,365 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo were quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract and a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. In the first period, Qilin was quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract; in the second period, traders' quotes remained the same as the previous period [8]. - In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded between 22,290 - 22,390 yuan/ton, Zijin was traded between 22,310 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc ingots were traded around 22,230 - 22,310 yuan/ton. Huludao was quoted at 23,010 yuan/ton. Ordinary 0 zinc was quoted at a discount of 30 - 60 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, Zijin was quoted at a discount of 20 - 40 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, and the Tianjin market was at a discount of about 20 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8]. - In Guangdong, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded between 22,250 - 22,375 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and at par with the Shanghai spot price, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. In the first period, holders quoted a discount of 110 - 50 yuan/ton for Qilin, Mengzi, Danxia, Anning, and Feilong; in the second period, the quotes remained the same [8][9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes charts such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventories, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13]