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建信期货豆粕日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:56
Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The industry under research is soybean meal [1] 2. Report Date - The report was released on August 6, 2025 [2] 3. Research Team - The research team consists of Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 4. Core Viewpoint - The domestic and foreign markets are diverging. The increase in the FOB quotation of Brazilian soybean exports has led to a steady increase in import costs. The view that the mid - term center of soybean meal will move up remains unchanged [7] 5. Content Summary by Section 5.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes** - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3050, the opening price was 3052, the highest price was 3089, the lowest price was 3051, the closing price was 3065, with a gain of 15 and a gain rate of 0.49%. The trading volume was 573,708, the open interest was 1,487,930, and the open interest change was 24,470 [6] - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3021, the opening price was 3022, the highest price was 3047, the lowest price was 3016, the closing price was 3023, with a gain of 2 and a gain rate of 0.07%. The trading volume was 881,233, the open interest was 1,275,203, and the open interest change was - 83,385 [6] - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3060, the opening price was 3059, the highest price was 3084, the lowest price was 3053, the closing price was 3061, with a gain of 1 and a gain rate of 0.03%. The trading volume was 119,894, the open interest was 630,336, and the open interest change was 4,891 [6] - **Market Analysis** - The US soybean futures contract in the external market fluctuated weakly, with the main contract at 995 cents. The Sino - US talks had no new additional news, and the previous tariffs were extended for 3 months, which depressed the demand outlook for US soybeans. The growth of the new - season US soybeans was good, with a good - excellent rate of 69% in the latest week, 70% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year. Only 5% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, and the soil moisture had some tolerance. The expectation of a bumper harvest was gradually strengthening [7] - Although the US had reached trade agreements with many countries recently, including an agreement with Indonesia where Indonesia needs to purchase $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US, China, the largest exporter of US soybeans, still maintained a 23% import tariff on US soybeans. It was expected that the export of new - season US soybeans would decline [7] - Domestic soybean meal was stronger than the external market, in a state of wide - present and tight - future. The import window for US soybeans was in the fourth quarter. As time approached, there were topics and themes for soybean meal to rise. However, China had started importing Argentine soybean meal, and the export tax rate of Argentine soybeans had recently decreased. Although the cost of imported soybeans in China was expected to rise in the fourth quarter, the room for imagination might be relatively limited [7] 5.2 Industry News - **USDA Crop Growth Report** - As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, in line with market expectations, 70% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year. The flowering rate was 85%, 76% in the previous week, 85% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 86%. The pod - setting rate was 58%, 41% in the previous week, 57% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 58% [10] - **USDA Export Inspection Report** - As of the week ending July 31, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 612,539 tons, higher than expected. The previous market forecast was 250,000 - 460,000 tons, 427,734 tons in the previous week (revised from an initial value of 409,714 tons). The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. As of the week ending August 1, 2024, the US soybean export inspection volume was 266,883 tons. So far in this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 47,834,010 tons, compared with 43,037,528 tons in the same period of the previous year [10][11] - **Canadian Rapeseed Situation** - As of the week ending July 30, the good - excellent rate of rapeseed crops in Saskatchewan, Canada, was 67.84%. As of the week ending July 29, the good - excellent rate of rapeseed growth in Alberta was 60.3%. In Manitoba, due to a long sowing window, rapeseed was at different growth stages. Late - sown rapeseed was in the mid - flowering stage, and the earliest - sown rapeseed had fully set pods [11] 5.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract of soybean meal, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [15][16][18]
白糖日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The decline of Zhengzhou sugar may be nearing its end as the long - position funds are actively shifting to the 01 contract, causing the 9 - 1 spread to weaken. Currently, the basis is large, and there is certain support at the 5700 mark [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: SR509 closed at 5697 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan or 0.42%, with a position reduction of 20364 lots; SR601 closed at 5638 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.21%, with a position increase of 24152 lots; US Sugar 10 closed at 16.25 cents/pound, up 0.07 cents or 0.43%, with a position increase of 2539 lots; US Sugar 03 closed at 16.88 cents/pound, up 0.10 cents or 0.60%, with a position increase of 2476 lots [7]. - **Market Analysis**: New York raw sugar futures strengthened on Monday. The bearish production data of Brazil's central - southern region in the first half of July suppressed the raw sugar price, but concerns about the decline in Brazil's production still exist, and there is a high possibility of a reduction in beet sugar production in the EU. Zhengzhou sugar's decline was mainly due to the long - position funds' shift to the 01 contract [7][8]. 3.2 Industry News - **China - Guangxi**: In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane crushing in Guangxi was 4859.54 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 258.47 million tons; the output of blended sugar was 646.50 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.36 million tons; the sugar - making rate was 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points. As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar sales were 549.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.66 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 85.01%, a year - on - year increase of 2.51 percentage points. In July, the single - month sugar sales were 35.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.78 million tons; the industrial inventory was 96.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.3 million tons [9]. - **China - Yunnan**: The 2024/2025 sugar - crushing season in Yunnan ended 5 days earlier than last year. The total cane crushing was 1806.30 million tons (compared with 1544.94 million tons in the previous season), the sugar output was 241.88 million tons (compared with 203.20 million tons in the previous season), the sugar - making rate was 13.39% (compared with 13.15% in the previous season), and the alcohol output was 2.82 million tons (compared with 2.80 million tons in the previous season). As of July 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar sales were 195.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.62 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 80.68%, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%; the monthly sugar sales were 20.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 million tons; the industrial inventory was 46.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.06 million tons [9]. - **Brazil**: In the first half of July, the cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 4982.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 641.1 million tons or 14.77%; the ATR of cane was 133.66 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 9.79 kg/ton; the sugar - making ratio was 53.68%, a year - on - year increase of 3.79%; the ethanol output was 2.194 billion liters, a year - on - year increase of 0.051 billion liters or 2.36%; the sugar output was 3.406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.446 million tons or 15.07% [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including spot price trends, 2509 contract basis, SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [11][15][17].
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:51
1. Report Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of July, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The spot price of eggs continued to fall over the weekend. The adjustment in the peak season this year was greater than expected. The short - term market downturn may continue, squeezing the premium of futures. Although there will be at least one wave of price increases in August according to historical patterns, the expected target is lowered to 3.6 - 3.8 yuan. It is not recommended to buy the dip in the 09 contract in the short term. The fourth - quarter contracts are currently at a historically low valuation, but it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm and entry timing, and it is advisable to conduct band operations [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the 2509 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3394, the opening price was 3359, the highest price was 3372, the lowest price was 3323, the closing price was 3330, down 64 or 1.89%, with a trading volume of 253,161 and an open interest of 227,835, a decrease of 4144. - For the 2510 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3258, the opening price was 3245, the highest price was 3266, the lowest price was 3242, the closing price was 3252, down 6 or 0.18%, with a trading volume of 94,484 and an open interest of 194,539, a decrease of 879. - For the 2511 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3335, the opening price was 3323, the highest price was 3352, the lowest price was 3318, the closing price was 3349, up 14 or 0.42%, with a trading volume of 30,860 and an open interest of 91,845, an increase of 3208. - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.95 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.25 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous day [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Do not buy the dip in the 09 contract in the short term. For the fourth - quarter contracts, it is advisable to conduct band operations and pay attention to the rhythm and entry timing [8]. 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of July, the monthly inventory was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [9]. - The monthly output of day - old chicks in sample enterprises in July was about 39.98 million, less than that in June and the same period in 2024. This was the first year - on - year decrease in the monthly replenishment volume this year [9]. - From the first to the third week of July 31, the national chicken culling volumes were 13.01 million, 13.38 million, and 15.05 million respectively. The culling volume has been decreasing since June, and the decline rate is higher than the seasonal average. As of July 31, the average age of culled chickens was 507 days, one day later than the previous week and one day earlier than the previous month [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides figures on the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg chicken farming profits, egg 08 contract basis, egg 08 - 09 spread, average price of eggs in the main producing areas, and egg 09 seasonal trends, with data sources including Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and others [16][14][11]
建信期货油脂日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:46
Group 1: General Information - Report Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - **P2509**: Previous settlement price 8814, opening price 8808, closing price 9064, up 250 (2.84%), trading volume 580261, open interest 400643, open interest change +50247 [7] - **P2601**: Previous settlement price 8830, opening price 8810, closing price 9044, up 214 (2.42%), trading volume 188349, open interest 224873, open interest change +16881 [7] - **Y2509**: Previous settlement price 8246, opening price 8226, closing price 8344, up 98 (1.19%), trading volume 303060, open interest 469009 [7] - **Y2601**: Previous settlement price 8204, opening price 8194, closing price 8320, up 116 (1.41%), trading volume 217779, open interest 500881, open interest change +32194 [7] - **O1509**: Previous settlement price 9490, opening price 9522, closing price 9615, up 175 (1.32%), trading volume 204310, open interest 188408, open interest change +6762 [7] - **OI601**: Previous settlement price 9429, opening price 9458, closing price 9547, up 118 (1.25%), trading volume 77547, open interest 144896, open interest change +11141 [7] Operational Suggestions - Palm oil prices are under pressure due to increased production and weak demand, but there are rumors of a significant decline in Indonesia's June production. Rapeseed oil has sufficient near - term supply but fewer far - month purchases. Soybean oil inventory may increase in the short term but is optimistic in the long term due to biodiesel policies. The spot basis of the three major oils has limited room for significant downward adjustment in the later period. It is advisable to buy far - month basis appropriately. The three major oils may adjust in the short term, but the adjustment space is limited. In the medium and long term, buy on dips [8] Group 3: Industry News - Malaysian palm oil exports in July were 896362 tons, a 25.0% decrease from June. Exports to China were 75000 tons, down from 168000 tons in June [9] - Malaysian palm oil production in July increased by 7.07% month - on - month, with FFB yield up 7.19% and OER down 0.02% month - on - month [9] - Estimates suggest that the Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of July reached a 19 - month high, with Reuters estimating production at 1.828 million tons, exports at 1.3 million tons, and inventory at 2.25 million tons; Bloomberg estimating production at 1.83 million tons, exports at 1.3 million tons, and inventory at 2.23 million tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including those on the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, price spreads of palm oil futures contracts, and exchange rates of the US dollar against the Malaysian ringgit and the Chinese yuan [11][19][26][30]
建信期货工业硅日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:44
Report Information - Report Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices continued to be weak. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,490 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.37%. The trading volume was 311,623 lots, and the open interest was 181,168 lots, with a net increase of 13,572 lots [4] - Industrial silicon spot prices began to decline. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,700 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 8,750 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,600 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9,400 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,650 yuan/ton [4] Future Outlook - The resumption of production in the southwest offset the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang. The output in July increased to 330,000 tons compared with the forecast. The operating rate of polysilicon increased slightly, and the production increase capacity of organic silicon was limited in the short term. The monthly supply and demand of industrial silicon remained in a loose pattern [4] - Market sentiment cooled down, and the trends of previous varieties in the same sector had diverged. Industrial silicon lacked the implementation of clear stimulus policies. The spot price rose and then fell again. After the futures entered the daily short - term trend, it stopped falling in the short term. The strengthening of coking coal and coke prices on the cost side drove a rebound, but the rebound space of futures was limited due to the lack of major drivers [4] Market News - On August 5, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,806 lots, with a net increase of 494 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - Xingfa Group stated that the actual production capacity of its DMC was about 300,000 tons/year. The increase in DMC price had a positive impact on the company's organic silicon business segment. If only considering the production capacity factor, for every 1,000 yuan/ton increase in the organic silicon price, it was expected to increase the company's annual profit by about 3 billion yuan [5]
建信期货MEG日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:43
Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: August 06, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is weak overall, and with the weakening of macro - positive support, the price of ethylene glycol is expected to continue its weak trend in the short term [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: The closing price of EG2509 was 4399 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the closing price of EG2601 was 4426 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract EG2509 was 104,974 lots, and the open interest was 224,036 lots, a decrease of 8500 lots. The open interest of EG2601 was 45,563 lots, an increase of 5251 lots [7] 2. Industry News - Oil Price: OPEC and its eight - nation production - limiting alliance agreed to further increase production significantly in September. International oil prices fell for the third consecutive day. On August 4, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 was $66.29 per barrel, down $1.04 or 1.54%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 was $68.76 per barrel, down $0.91 or 1.31% [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market: In the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market, the spot negotiation price this week was 4475 - 4477 yuan/ton, up 18.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The basis of this week's spot was at a premium of 76 - 78 yuan/ton compared to EG2509 [8] - Industry Start - up: PX and ethylene glycol started stably. Affected by the full - load operation of the Ningbo PTA plant, the PTA start - up rate increased by 1.23 percentage points. Affected by the restart of the polyester staple fiber plant, the polyester start - up rate increased by 0.94 percentage points [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including PTA - MEG price difference, MEG price, MEG futures price, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory, etc. The data sources are Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [10][15][16]
建信期货棉花日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:43
Industry - The industry is cotton [1] Date - The report date is August 6, 2025 [2] Researchers - Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton reduced positions, changed contracts, and fluctuated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 15,169 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream low basis for 2024/25 Beijiang Corps machine - picked 4129/29B/impurity within 3.5 was in the range of CF09 + 1400 - 1500, and most sales bases were above CF09 + 1500, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream sales basis for 2024/25 north and south Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5 was around CF09 + 1300 - 1500, and the Corps' goods were quoted around 1550 - 1750 for self - pick - up in the inland [7] - The price of the pure cotton yarn market continued to decline, with a decline of about 300 yuan/ton. Many inland spinning enterprises still limited production. Due to the loss of cotton yarn, the price - concession efforts were not large, and the decline of Xinjiang spinning enterprises was relatively larger. The spot market transaction of all - cotton grey cloth continued to be insufficient. The sample orders of weaving factories were worse than the same period of previous years. Currently, there were few actual orders, mostly just for necessary needs. It was expected that the factory production would continue to be sluggish in the first ten days of August, and weaving factories would still produce conventional varieties, and it was expected to improve in the middle of the month [7] - Internationally, as of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period last year), the budding rate was 87% (90% in the same period last year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (59% in the same period last year), and the boll - opening rate was 5% (7% in the same period last year). The growth of U.S. cotton was stable but the progress was still slightly slow, and the outer market maintained range - bound fluctuations. Domestically, the actual sown area of this year increased year - on - year. Xinjiang cotton was in the full - bloom stage, and there was still an expectation of a bumper harvest. The downstream of the industry was still weak. The inventory of cotton yarn products accumulated again, and the operating rate of inland spinning enterprises decreased. After the short - term pessimistic sentiment was released, the market fluctuated and stabilized. The near - month contracts were approaching delivery, and the expectation of new cotton listing was advanced, so the overall market was under pressure [8] Industry News - The Pakistani government announced that since July 1, 2025, it would impose an 18% tariff on imported cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton cloth, and implement a new tax policy on e - commerce platforms, levying an 18% sales tax and a 5% service tax respectively [9] - According to USDA, as of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period last year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (44% in the previous week and 59% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 58%), the full - boll rate was 5% (7% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 6%), and the budding rate was 87% (80% in the previous week, 90% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 89%) [9] Data Overview - The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures, including various data on cotton price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, inventories, and exchange rates [7][8][9]
建信期货PTA日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:41
Group 1: Report Information - The report is a PTA daily report dated August 6, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Research Team - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers for different products such as Li Jie for crude oil and fuel, Ren Junchi for PTA and MEG, etc [4] Group 3: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - On August 5, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2509 was 4,682 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton or 0.72%. The settlement price was 4,678 yuan/ton, and the daily position decreased by 12,105 lots. Due to weak cost support, sufficient PTA supply, and low downstream factory procurement intentions for spot goods, PTA prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Group 4: Industry News - OPEC and its eight allied countries agreed to further increase production significantly in September. International oil prices fell for the third consecutive day. On August 4, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 was $66.29 per barrel, down $1.04 or 1.54%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 was $68.76 per barrel, down $0.91 or 1.31% [7] - The PX price in the Chinese market was estimated at $838 - 840 per ton, stable compared to the previous trading day. The PX price in the South Korean market was estimated at $818 - 820 per ton, also stable. The cost support for PX has strengthened slightly, and its supply - demand structure is relatively stable [7] - The PTA price in the East China market was 4,664 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 14 yuan/ton to the futures 2509 contract, down 2 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts including those related to international crude oil futures prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA prices, PTA processing margins, etc [11][13][17]
建信期货多晶硅日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:41
Report Date - The report date is August 6, 2025 [2] Market Performance - Multiple contracts of polysilicon declined significantly. The closing price of PS2509 was 50,330 yuan/ton, with a gain of 3.88%. The trading volume was 433,130 lots, and the open interest was 127,587 lots, a net increase of 20,838 lots [4] Future Outlook - Polysilicon is supported by comprehensive costs and spot prices. It has ended its previous adjustment and returned to range - bound trading. The price increase in the photovoltaic industry has not been smoothly transmitted to the component end. In August, polysilicon production is expected to increase to 125,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 56.82GW. Since June, the pressure of a sharp decline in terminal demand has gradually spread upstream, and the monthly output of silicon wafers and battery cells has dropped to about 52GW. The supply - demand relationship remains loose. Currently, the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the policy implementation has cooled market sentiment. Prices are expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation, with 47,000 yuan as a short - term support level [4] Market News - On August 5, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,120 lots, a net increase of 250 from the previous trading day. From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%. In June, the domestic installed capacity was only 14GW, showing a significant decline. On August 1, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the special energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry in 2025. According to customs data, in June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic components, a 3% month - on - month decrease and a 2% decrease compared with June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export of photovoltaic components was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5]
建信期货原油日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:40
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Trading Suggestions - Market Performance: WTI dropped 1.62% to $66.24, Brent fell 1.42% to $68.68, and SC decreased 1.55% to 508.8 yuan/barrel. Trading volumes were 25.39 million hands for WTI, 30.84 million hands for Brent, and 10.72 million hands for SC [6] - Market Drivers: India will continue importing Russian oil, OPEC+ will increase production by 550,000 barrels per day, and the revised US non - farm payroll data triggered recession fears [6] - Fundamental Analysis: OPEC+ and US production growth is limited, demand in the peak season is slightly below expectations, and the fundamentals are neutral. In the medium term, demand will enter the off - season [7] - Trading Strategy: Consider shorting after a rebound due to negative macro sentiment [7] Group 3: Industry News - Demand Forecast: Saudi Aramco CEO expects oil demand to grow by 1.1 - 1.3 million barrels per day this year, approaching the upper end of the range, and reach 105.8 million barrels per day [8] - OPEC Production: OPEC production remained stable as Saudi's cuts offset UAE's increase [8] - Business Cooperation: Libya's National Oil Corporation signed a memorandum with ExxonMobil after a ten - year interruption [8]