Jian Xin Qi Huo
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建信期货棉花日报-20260127
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 01:41
研究员:余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 研究员:林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3055047 行业 棉花 日期 2026 年 1 月 27 日 #summary# 研究员:王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0230741 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | | 纯棉纱市场交投一般,贸易商和下游布厂刚需采购。近期溯源单逐渐下放, 个别纺企反馈排单已至 3 月。部分纱厂对后市较有信心,挺价意愿明显。全棉坯 布市场行情进入收尾阶段,由于多数厂商对节 ...
建信期货生猪日报-20260127
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 01:41
行业 生猪日报 日期 2026 年 01 月 27 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F0230741 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 二、行业要闻 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1:全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2:样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 生猪行情: 期货方面,26 日生猪主力 2603 ...
纯碱、玻璃日报-20260127
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 01:41
行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃、纯碱) 日期 2026 年 1 月 27 日 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 每日报告 纯碱当日行情: 1 月 26 日,纯碱主力合约 SA605 延续回升趋势,收于 1205 元/吨,较前一日上涨 17 元/吨,涨幅 1.43%,日内增仓 ...
建信期货原油日报-20260127
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 01:39
请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 27 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1: | 行情回顾(美元/桶) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...
贵金属专题报告
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 13:45
日期 2026 年 1 月 26 日 类别 贵金属专题报告 宏观金融研究团队 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 贵金属市场常见套利策略更新 请阅读正文后的声明 宏观专题-20250306-特朗普 2.0 新 政阶段性回顾:回归保守价值观、 回归丛林法则》 《宏观专题-20250120-特朗普 2.0 与 2025 年宏观市场展望》 专题报告 近期研究报告 《宏观专题-20250918-特朗普政府 贸易关税政策梳理及宏观市场影响 分析(三)》 《宏观专题-20250821-特朗普政府 贸易关税政策梳理及宏观市场影响 分析(二)》 《宏观专题-20250815-特朗普政府 贸易关税政策梳理及宏观市场影响 分析(一 ...
贵金属点评
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 09:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 26, the London gold price broke through the $5000 per ounce mark, with other precious metals also rising significantly. The fundamentals supporting the precious metals sector are solid, and long, medium, and short - term technical indicators all point to an upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish view on precious metals trading. However, due to the short - term sharp rise and large inflows of investment funds, there are risks of short - term adjustments, so investors are advised to reduce positions, go long with a light position, and maintain high flexibility [5][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Performance - As of 9:10 am Beijing time on January 26, London gold was reported at $5048 per ounce, with a year - to - date increase of 17% and a cumulative increase of 143% since the mid - term upward trend started in March 2024. London silver was reported at $107 per ounce, with a year - to - date increase of 50%. Platinum and palladium had year - to - date increases of 38% and 28% respectively [5] 3.2 Long - term Factors - The changing global landscape and Sino - US competition have increased geopolitical risks, impacting the global political, economic, trade, and monetary systems. The resulting safe - haven demand and the need for reserve diversification have continuously pushed up the fluctuation center of gold prices. Trump 2.0's policies have further accelerated the restructuring of the global system, consolidating the long - term bull market for gold [5] 3.3 Medium - term Factors - Trump's radical reform measures have suppressed economic growth momentum in the US and globally. Weak economic growth requires more economic stimulus measures, leading to loose central bank policies and liquidity premiums, making gold prices strong in the medium term [5] 3.4 Short - term Factors - **Re - evaluation of strategic value**: In November 2025, the USGS added 10 minerals to the "2025 Critical Minerals List", including industrial precious metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium. There is also a risk that the Trump administration may impose tariffs on the import of these metals [8] - **Increased geopolitical risks**: In 2026, Trump 2.0's new policies will shift the focus to the military field, significantly increasing geopolitical risks and adding safe - haven demand for the precious metals sector [9] - **Economic outlook and policy expectations**: The international trade situation has eased, and the Fed has restarted the interest - rate cut process. The economic growth prospects in the US and globally are expected to improve in 2026, boosting the industrial demand expectations for industrial precious metals but weakening the safe - haven demand for gold. However, Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates has added market expectations of further rate cuts and liquidity premiums to the precious metals sector [10]
贵金属日评-20260126
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 01:48
行业 贵金属日评 日期 2026 年 01 月 26 日 宏观金融团队 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情: 虽然格陵兰岛风波有所降温但媒体报道美国筹划对古巴和伊朗动手,美元指 数偏弱回落提振贵金属的计价货币因素,而且国际投行高盛将 2026 年黄金目标价 提升至 5400 美元/盎司,贵金属板块在短期回落之后再次集体冲高,伦敦黄金逼 近 5000 美元/盎司大关。我们认为 2025 年 12 月底的回调已经充分释放贵金属内 部积累的调整风险,总体看在国际政经格局重组、美联储宽松货币政策、全球经 济增长前景改善以及银铂对金饰替代需求等因素影响下,20 ...
建信期货黑色金属周报-20260123
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-23 15:37
报告类型 黑色金属周报 日期 2026 年 1 月 23 日 021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3033782 交易咨询证书号:Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 交易咨询证书号: Z0023472 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 黑色品种研究团队 研究员:翟贺攀 研究员:聂嘉怡 研究员:冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 黑色品种策略推荐 | | | | 黑色品种策略推荐 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表 | 1:黑色品种投资策略(仅供参考) | | | | | 策略 | | 最新 | 策略 | | | 类型 | 标的 | 价格 | 方向 | 主导因素 | | | 单 | | | | | | 边 RB2605 | 3142 | | 全球金融市场风险偏好再度转为回升+能源价格走强部分外溢到 | | | 策 ...
建信期货有色金属周报-20260123
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-23 12:20
Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 23, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices are mainly driven by macro and capital factors. Short-term adjustments may be needed due to macro mood fluctuations and previous rapid price increases, but prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard. Nickel market is expected to have significant upward elasticity due to policy disturbances. Zinc prices may continue to show high-level oscillations, with limited continuous upward momentum [13][49][73] Summary by Metals Aluminum Market Review - This week, aluminum prices were strongly supported around 24,000 yuan. The overall market showed an external-strong and internal-weak pattern, with the import window closed. Alumina futures prices rebounded after a mid-week decline due to a mine accident in Guinea. Aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum. High prices continued to suppress terminal demand, and inventory increased slightly compared to last week [8] Operation Suggestions - Although both domestic and overseas ore sectors were disturbed to some extent this week, ore prices remained weak. Alumina is expected to fluctuate widely at low levels under the pressure of an oversupply. The supply of electrolytic aluminum remained stable, and aluminum processing showed a slight recovery. Considering the current situation, short-term price adjustments may be needed, but prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard [13] Fundamental Changes - **Bauxite Market**: Domestic and overseas bauxite prices were weak. Some northern domestic mines reduced production due to weather and are gradually resuming work, while southern mines remained stable. Overseas, the bauxite market was quiet, and alumina plants had low purchasing willingness [14] - **Alumina**: Futures prices rebounded from a low level, but the oversupply situation remained unchanged. The weighted index of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals decreased slightly compared to last week, and the operating rate of domestic alumina plants decreased [18][19] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit level of the smelting industry remained high. The total industry cost decreased slightly, while the average profit increased [25] - **Aluminum Ingot Import and Export**: The import window remained closed. In December 2025, the net import of aluminum ingots increased [31] - **Aluminum Processing**: The operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises increased slightly, but different sectors showed different trends. Some sectors were affected by environmental protection, weather, and other factors, while others were supported by orders from specific fields [34] - **Inventory**: Aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly compared to last week, while aluminum rod inventory increased significantly [38][41] Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices strengthened again this week, maintaining a high-level wide-range oscillation pattern. Spot trading remained cold, and the import window was closed [45] Operation Suggestions - The expected shortage of nickel ore supply supported miners to continuously raise prices. Nickel iron prices continued to rise, while nickel salt prices weakened. Policy disturbances are expected to support the nickel market to maintain significant upward elasticity [48][49] Fundamental Changes - **Nickel Ore Market**: Prices in the Philippines and Indonesia increased significantly. The import volume of nickel ore in November 2025 decreased compared to the previous month but increased compared to the same period last year [50] - **Nickel Iron Market**: The production of nickel iron in China and Indonesia decreased in December 2025. The supply side continued to hold firm prices, and the demand side showed some activity but with differences between upstream and downstream [54] - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: The production capacity of electrowon nickel was rapidly released. In December 2025, the monthly production of electrolytic nickel in China increased, and the import and export volumes also changed [61] - **Nickel Sulfate Market**: Nickel salt prices decreased slightly this week. The production of nickel sulfate in December 2025 decreased, and the industry's operating load remained at a certain level [65] - **Stainless Steel Market**: The inventory of the stainless steel market increased slightly, mainly due to the contradiction between rising futures prices and weak terminal demand [69] Zinc Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector showed differentiation and high-level adjustments. Zinc prices at high levels showed a callback, and then strengthened in the second half of the week. The import window was not fully opened, and the spot premium decreased slightly [70][71] Operation Suggestions - The zinc concentrate market remained tight. The supply of zinc ore was affected by seasonal and overseas factors, and the processing fee was expected to remain low. The demand side was weak, and zinc prices were likely to oscillate at high levels with limited upward momentum [72][73] Fundamental Changes - **Supply Side**: The supply of domestic zinc ore was tight, and the import processing fee decreased. The production of zinc ingots in January is expected to increase slightly compared to December [76][77] - **Demand Side**: The operating rates of galvanizing, die-casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises increased slightly, but overall demand was weak due to high zinc prices and environmental protection measures [78][79] - **Spot Market**: Domestic zinc inventory decreased slightly, while LME zinc inventory increased. The cash-3M spread of LME zinc remained in contango [80]
建信期货农产品周度报告-20260123
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-23 11:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The overall outlook for the agricultural products industry is complex, with different sub - sectors showing distinct trends. For the oil and fat sector, it is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, but there is a risk of a technical correction after continuous rallies. For corn, the spot price is expected to be strong, and the futures price of the 2603 contract may follow the spot price. For the pig industry, the spot price will fluctuate, and the 03/05 futures contracts will be weak. For cotton, the short - term Zhengzhou cotton will be in a wide - range volatile adjustment, and the low - buying strategy remains valid. For sugar, the market lacks a clear driving logic, and the price is in a stagnant state [8][9][85][125][132][159]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The three major oils showed a differentiated trend, with the strength relationship expected to be palm oil > soybean oil > rapeseed oil. Palm oil prices are supported by factors such as reduced production in Malaysia, increased exports, and concerns about long - term supply tightening. Soybean oil is affected by the expected biofuel policy in the US and the high - yield expectation in South America. Rapeseed oil is affected by the easing of China - Canada relations. It is recommended to hold a long - short arbitrage portfolio of long soybean oil and palm oil and short rapeseed oil [8][9]. - **Core Points** - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of January 23, 2025, the price of first - grade soybean oil in East China was 8620 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan week - on - week; the price of third - grade rapeseed oil was 9750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan week - on - week; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China was 8930 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan week - on - week [10]. - **Domestic Three - Major Oil Inventories**: As of the end of the 3rd week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1034 million tons, down 38,300 tons week - on - week, a 1.79% decrease. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.1404 million tons, down 68,800 tons week - on - week; palm oil inventory was 653,800 tons, up 16,400 tons week - on - week; rapeseed oil inventory was 309,100 tons, up 14,100 tons week - on - week [19]. - **Domestic Oil and Oilseed Supply**: As of the end of the 3rd week, the soybean opening rate of major domestic soybean oil mills decreased slightly, with an average opening rate of 54.50%. The total soybean crushing volume this week was 1.9974 million tons. The opening rate of imported rapeseed processing enterprises was almost at a standstill, with a weekly opening rate of 0% [24][31]. - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects palm oil prices to fluctuate between 4000 - 4300 ringgit per ton in February. The average price of Malaysian palm oil futures in 2026 is expected to be slightly lower than last year. The market is optimistic about the upcoming biofuel policy in the US [34]. - **CFTC Positions**: Speculative funds have continuously reduced their net long positions in soybeans for six weeks, reduced their short - selling bets on Chicago soybean oil for two weeks, and reduced their short - selling bets on Chicago soybean meal for the first time in seven weeks [44]. 3.2 Corn - **Market Review**: The spot price of corn rose slightly this week. In the futures market, as of January 23, the main 2603 contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 2300 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last week, a 0.83% increase [46]. - **Fundamental Analysis** - **Corn Supply**: The grain - selling progress was average this week, with more than half of the grain sold. The progress in Northeast China was 2% faster than the same period last year, while that in North China and Northwest China was 3% slower. As of January 16, the inventory in northern ports was 1.75 million tons, up 190,000 tons week - on - week; the inventory in southern ports was 697,000 tons, down 64,000 tons week - on - week [49][50]. - **Domestic Substitutes**: The price of wheat rose steadily this week. The snowfall in the main producing areas led to a reduction in the circulation of grain sources, and the flour mills increased their purchases. As of January 22, the average price of corn was 2328 yuan/ton, and the average price of wheat was 2522 yuan/ton [52]. - **Imported Substitute Grains**: In December 2025, the import of grains was 10.86 million tons, a 6.0% year - on - year increase. The import of corn and corn flour was 800,000 tons, a 133.1% year - on - year increase [54]. - **Feed Demand**: In November 2025, the national industrial feed output was 28.73 million tons, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease and a 2.7% year - on - year increase. The inventory of feed enterprises increased slightly this week [68][72]. - **Deep - Processing Demand**: The starch processing industry's opening rate increased slightly this week. The total corn processing volume was 330,800 tons, and the weekly opening rate was 60.46%. The processing profit of starch enterprises was in a loss state. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased this week [75][77]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: According to the January 2026 agricultural product supply - demand report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the sown area of corn in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 44,961 thousand hectares, an increase of 220 thousand hectares; the yield per unit area is expected to be 6700 kg/ha, an increase of 108 kg/ha; the total output is expected to be 301.24 million tons, an increase of 2.1%. The consumption is expected to be 299.02 million tons, an increase of 116,000 tons [82]. - **Later Outlook and Strategy**: The spot price of corn is expected to be strong, and the futures price of the 2603 contract may follow the spot price. It is recommended that spot enterprises replenish inventory appropriately, and futures investors hold long positions [85][86]. 3.3 Pigs - **Market Review**: The spot price of pigs first rose and then fell this week, with the weekly average price moving up. The futures price of the main contract LH2603 fell by 350 yuan/ton from last Thursday, a 2.93% decrease [88][89]. - **Fundamental Overview** - **Long - Term Supply: Sows Inventory**: As of the end of 2025, the inventory of sows was 39.61 million heads, a 1.83% quarter - on - quarter decrease and a 2.9% year - on - year decrease. According to the data of Yongyi Information, the inventory of sows in sample farms increased in December 2025 [95]. - **Medium - Term Supply: Piglet Inventory**: The price of 6.5 - kg piglets rose by 45 yuan/head this week. As of December, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.3856 million heads, a 1.30% month - on - month decrease and a 6.35% year - on - year increase [104][105]. - **Short - Term Supply: Large Pig Inventory, Hogging and Secondary Fattening**: As of December, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises was 1.311 million heads, a 3.93% month - on - month decrease. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased, and the utilization rate of fattening pens increased [107][108]. - **Current Supply: Commercial Pig Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Weight**: In December, the actual slaughter volume of sample enterprises was 28.71 million heads, and the planned slaughter volume in January was 27.82 million heads, a 3.1% decrease. The average slaughter weight this week was 128.89 kg, a 0.03% week - on - week increase [111]. - **Import Supply: Pork Import**: In December 2025, China's pork import was 60,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month and a 30,000 - ton year - on - year decrease. The cumulative pork import in 2025 was 980,000 tons, an 8.4% year - on - year decrease [117]. - **Secondary Fattening Demand**: The enthusiasm for secondary fattening increased in mid - January. The cost of secondary fattening increased slightly this week [121]. - **Slaughter Demand**: The opening rate of slaughter enterprises was 35.18% this week, a 0.73 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The slaughter volume in November 2025 was 39.57 million heads, a 3.2% month - on - month increase and a 17.4% year - on - year increase [124]. - **Later Outlook**: The spot price of pigs will fluctuate, and the 03/05 futures contracts will be weak. It is recommended that futures investors short on rallies, and breeding enterprises increase hedging and reduce short positions with slaughter [125][127]. 3.4 Cotton - **Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions**: The external market of cotton fluctuated and declined, and Zhengzhou cotton adjusted in a wide range. The trade of domestic cotton spot was active this week, and the downstream textile enterprises were gradually on holiday. The USDA monthly report was relatively positive. It is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy [130][131][132]. - **Core Points** - **Cotton - Producing Countries Situation**: The USDA's January supply - demand report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation in the 2025/26 season. The initial inventory decreased by 185,000 tons, the output decreased by 78,000 tons, the trade volume increased by 13,000 tons, the consumption increased by 67,000 tons, the ending inventory decreased by 324,000 tons, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased by 1.4% [133]. - **US Cotton Export Situation**: As of the week of January 8, the net signing of US cotton was 80,600 tons, and the cumulative signing was 1.623 million tons, a 19,100 - ton year - on - year decrease. The shipment was 37,600 tons, and the cumulative shipment was 747,800 tons, a 60,900 - ton year - on - year increase [140]. - **Textile Enterprises Operation Situation**: As of January 16, the cotton inventory of spinning enterprises was 32.7 days, up 0.9 days from last week; the yarn inventory was 26.6 days, down 0.7 days from last week; the yarn inventory of weaving factories was 8.3 days, up 0.3 days from last week; the cotton fabric inventory was 36.4 days, down 0.4 days from last week [142]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: As of January 22, 2026, the basis of China's cotton price index 3128B corresponding to the cotton 05 contract was 1109 yuan, down 188 yuan from last week. The 5 - 9 spread of cotton was - 155 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week [152]. - **CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 13, the non - commercial long positions were 88,834 contracts, up 7425 contracts from last week; the non - commercial short net positions were 116,265 contracts, up 5936 contracts from last week; the non - commercial net positions were - 27,431 contracts, up 1489 contracts from last week. As of January 22, the total domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts were 11,089 contracts, up 551 contracts from last week [155]. 3.5 Sugar - **Market Review**: The raw sugar index fluctuated sideways at the 14.5 - cent level this week. The Zhengzhou sugar index first declined and then rebounded. The spot price of sugar in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Shandong decreased this week. The basis expanded, and the 5 - 9 spread of futures weakened [159][160][161]. - **Core Points** - **Production in Major Producing Areas**: As of December 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 39.904 million tons, a 1.13% year - on - year increase; as of December 15, the sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season was 7.825 million tons, a 27.69% year - on - year increase; as of December 24, the sugar production in Thailand in the 2025/26 season was 1.0005 million tons, a 166,700 - ton year - on - year decrease [159]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of January 13, 2026, the non - commercial net short positions of raw sugar were 165,711 contracts, up 11,613 contracts from the previous week; the total positions reached 970,010 contracts, up 26,840 contracts from the previous week [173].