Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metals need to consolidate to digest the previous sharp rise, but in the medium - term, factors such as global central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the accelerated restructuring of the international trade and monetary system continue to provide liquidity premiums, safe - haven demand, and reserve diversification demand for precious metals. Investors are advised to maintain a long - biased trading approach and observe the support level of London gold at $3800 - 3850 per ounce. The medium - level bull market for precious metals since March 2024 has not ended, and it is expected that in the next six months and one year, London gold may rise to $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: From October 28th to the present, London gold has been trading sideways in the range of $3880 - $4050 per ounce. The narrowing trading range indicates an imminent short - term price breakthrough. In the short - term, precious metals need to adjust, while in the medium - term, they are supported by multiple factors. Investors are advised to hold a long - biased view and watch the support at $3800 - $3850 per ounce [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 923.97, up 0.39%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 11,505, up 0.49%; Gold T + D closed at 917.27, down 0.03%; Silver T + D closed at 11,480, up 0.52% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since March 2024, the medium - level bull market for precious metals has not ended. It is expected that in the next six months and one year, London gold may reach $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may reach $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. After the significant decline in precious metal prices since late October, some of the adjustment risks have been released. Investors should pay attention to the technical and fundamental signals for re - entering long positions [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Cleveland Fed President Harker believes that high inflation levels are not conducive to the Fed's further rate cuts, and she is concerned that current monetary policy may not be effective in dealing with inflation. - US President Trump admitted that US consumers are paying higher prices due to his tariff policies, although he still claims that the policy benefits Americans overall. - The Bank of England kept its interest rate at 4.0%, but the close vote and signs that Governor Bailey may soon support rate cuts increase the possibility of a rate cut in December after the government's budget announcement. - After the US imposed new sanctions on major Russian oil producers, Indian and Chinese refiners reduced their purchases, leading to the largest discount of Russian oil prices in Asia compared to Brent crude in a year [17].

Report Overview - Report Date: November 10, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - After the Sino - US agreement, domestic soybean meal has returned to the CBOT soybean cost - pricing model, and the price transmission chain between China and the US has been re - established. Due to cost increases and low crushing profits, the support at the bottom of soybean meal is relatively strong. In the context of strong policy uncertainty, treat soybean meal with short - term cautious optimism. The risk lies in the collapse of the cost increase expectation caused by China's small - scale purchase of US soybeans later [6] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Trading Suggestions - **Market Data**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3070, the opening price was 3065, the highest price was 3070, the lowest price was 3034, the closing price was 3058, down 12 or - 0.39%, with a trading volume of 951,916 and an open interest of 1,577,123, an increase of 8,927. Similar data is provided for the 2603 and 2605 contracts [6] - **International Market**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market declined, with the main contract at 1110 cents. After the Sino - US agreement in late October, the US expected China to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons per year for the next three years. However, with a 13% tariff on US soybean imports, it is more cost - effective for Chinese oil mills to import Brazilian soybeans, and it is difficult to achieve the purchase targets. The US government shutdown makes it impossible to verify China's purchase situation, and uncertainties are high [6] 3.2 Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will release several major agricultural reports in November, including the monthly supply - demand report. The reports were not released in October due to the government shutdown. The crop production report and the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report, originally scheduled for November 10, will be released on November 14 [7] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentine farmers started sowing soybeans for the 2025/26 season. Most farmland soil moisture is in the "optimal" state. The exchange expects Argentina to harvest 48.5 million tons of soybeans this year, and farmers have sown 4.4% of the expected 17.6 million hectares [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The data sources for various figures (such as soybean meal ex - factory price, basis of soybean meal 01 contract, 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, US dollar - RMB central parity rate, US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate) are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: November 10, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Egg 2601 | 3379 | 3369 | 3392 | 3338 | 3391 | 12 | 0.36% | 140053 | 180370 | 169963 | | Egg 2602 | 3077 | 3075 | 3082 | 3049 | 3081 | 4 | 0.13% | 32666 | 112915 | 1308 | | Egg 2512 | 3222 | 3220 | 3229 | 3191 | 3219 | -3 | -0.09% | 240840 | 148243 | -18354 | [7] Core View - The national egg price rose today. The average price in the main producing areas was 3.01 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main consuming areas was 3.27 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 12 - contract fell 0.09%. - The spot market has improved significantly this week. The low - price areas in Hebei and Hubei have gradually increased, and the red eggs in the north have remained relatively stable. The inventory pressure has decreased significantly, and the market is in a normal trading state. - Fundamentally, the laying - hen inventory at the end of October decreased for the first time after 9 consecutive months of growth, indicating an inflection point. However, since the accelerated culling is in the early stage and the replenishment has only weakened significantly after July, the laying - hen inventory is expected to remain high and decline slightly by the end of the year. Without emotional support, the spot market is unlikely to have a continuous rebound. - In the futures market, the strengthening of the low - price spot areas has given confidence to the bulls. The market is currently in a continuous and relatively strong rebound, but the sustainability is questionable. Attention should be paid to the willingness of other spot areas to follow the price increase on weekends and in the future. The futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and a straddle double - selling strategy is recommended for options. [8] Group 3: Industry News Inventory - As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, down 0.66% from 1.368 billion at the end of September 2025 and 1.365 billion at the end of August 2025, ending the previous continuous growth trend. It was up 5.59% compared with 1.287 billion at the end of October 2024. [9] Replenishment - In October 2025, the monthly output of laying - hen chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period in 2024. The total replenishment from July to October 2025 was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period in 2024. [9] Culling Volume - As of November 6, 2025, the national culling volumes in the previous three weeks were 20.02 million, 20.53 million, and 19.81 million respectively, showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. [9][14] Culling Age - As of November 6, 2025, the average culling age of hens was 493 days, 1 day earlier than last week and 6 days earlier than last month, indicating an accelerated culling process. [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved. Considering that the central bank has started bond purchases, the bottom of treasury bond futures is supported. Coupled with the slowdown in economic momentum, the expectation of monetary easing is expected to heat up again. It is advisable to pay attention to next week's economic activity data and the central bank's outright reverse repurchase operations and seize the opportunity to layout on dips [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Today's weak export data and the A-share market's rise and then fall had limited support for the bond market. With the central bank's continuous net withdrawal of funds in recent days, the liquidity tightened slightly, and treasury bond futures fell across the board. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds across all maturities rose. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250016 reported 1.8070%, up 0.6bp [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: At the beginning of the month, the central bank continued to withdraw funds, and the liquidity tightened marginally. Today, there were 3551 billion yuan of open - market operations due, and the central bank injected 1417 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2134 billion yuan. This was the fifth consecutive day of net withdrawal this week. The inter - bank funds sentiment index rose slightly, indicating marginal tightening of liquidity. Among them, the weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits among banks rose slightly by 1.5bp to 1.33%, the 7 - day rate fell slightly by 1.24bp to 1.413%, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.63% [10]. - **Conclusion**: Since June, various domestic economic indicators have continued to weaken. In particular, the investment side has accelerated its decline, and the export, which was the main support for the economy, also turned negative in October. The combination of falling exports and weak domestic demand still poses significant pressure on the economic fundamentals. Currently, the central bank is implementing loose monetary and fiscal policies. The resumption of treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market. Referring to past experience, the credit - easing effect of loose fiscal policies may not be significant in the short term, and the impact on the bond market should be limited [11][12]. 3.2 Industry News - **Foreign Trade Data**: On November 7, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that in October, China's exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, compared with a growth of 8.3% in the previous period; imports increased by 1%, compared with a growth of 7.4% in the previous period; the trade surplus was 900.7 billion US dollars, compared with 904.5 billion US dollars in the previous period [13]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank released the liquidity injection situation of various tools in October, showing a net injection of 20 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond trading. This means that the treasury bond trading operation that was suspended since January this year has resumed, which is conducive to releasing liquidity and stabilizing market expectations. In addition, the central bank announced that it would conduct a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on November 5 [13]. - **US Economic Situation**: The severe employment situation in the United States has led to an increase in expectations of an interest - rate cut. Revelio Labs reported that the number of non - farm payrolls in the United States decreased by 9100 in October, compared with an increase of 33000 in the previous month. In addition, the number of job cuts by Challenger Gray & Christmas in the United States in October reached 153100, a year - on - year surge of 175.3%, the highest level for the same period since 2003. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December exceeds 70%. The continuous shutdown of the US federal government has led to the suspension of the release of official inflation data, causing some Federal Reserve officials to worry about the future direction of monetary policy [13][14]. - **Real Estate News**: Recently, many real - estate enterprises have made significant progress in debt restructuring. As of now, 21 troubled real - estate enterprises have had their debt restructuring and reorganization approved or completed, with a total debt - resolution scale of about 1.2 trillion yuan, which will greatly relieve the short - term public debt repayment pressure of these enterprises. Industry insiders believe that the approval of debt restructuring and reorganization of troubled real - estate enterprises will accelerate the process of clearing real - estate risks [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data of treasury bond futures on November 7, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest of various contracts [6].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [4] Group 2: Black Variety Strategy Recommendations RB2601 - Latest Price: 3034 - Strategy Direction: Oscillate Strongly - Dominant Factors: New environmental protection and production restriction draft released, steel mills' production reduction rhythm accelerating, large demand decline, slowdown in social inventory destocking, iron ore price decline, continued strength of coking coal prices, favorable industrial policies, positive macro - economic expectations, temporary suspension of trade war disturbances, and medium - long - term anti - involution [6] HC2601 - Latest Price: 3245 - Strategy Direction: Oscillate Weakly - Dominant Factors: Decline in both production and apparent demand of five major steel products, continuous decline in daily average hot metal output for 6 weeks with an enlarged decline recently, continuous narrowing of steel mills' profits suppressing production enthusiasm and affecting raw material demand, and steel mills maintaining on - demand restocking [6] I2601 - Latest Price: 760.5 - Strategy Direction: Oscillate Weakly - Dominant Factors: Similar to HC2601 [6] Group 3: Unilateral Logic Basis RB2601 and HC2601 - Message: On October 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a new draft of the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry", with stricter requirements on replacement ratios than the 2021 version. Also, it proposed restrictions on capacity replacement between different enterprises in the future [7] - Fundamentals: Steel mills' production reduction rhythm is accelerating, but due to large demand decline, social inventory destocking slows down. Iron ore prices have fallen since late October, while coking coal prices remain strong, and steel costs are still resilient. Steel futures are expected to have limited downside space, and may rebound in mid - to - late November [7][8] I2601 - Supply: Australian and Brazilian shipments have declined, and arrivals have rebounded after two weeks of low levels. Near - term arrivals are expected to be high, and the first shipment of iron ore from Simandou in Guinea in November may suppress far - month contracts. - Demand: Daily average hot metal output has continuously declined, and steel production and demand have decreased. Steel mills are restocking on - demand, and port inventory is accumulating [9] Group 4: Steel Analysis Fundamentals - Price: Some prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets declined in the week of November 7 [11] - Production: Blast furnace capacity utilization rate and crude steel output of key enterprises, daily average hot metal output, and production of five major steel products all decreased. Steel mills' inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased [12][15] - Inventory: Rebar social inventory in 35 cities decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, while hot - rolled coil social inventory in 33 cities increased [18] - Demand: Real estate investment decreased year - on - year, while automobile, metal - cutting machine tool, and shipbuilding production increased year - on - year [18] - Apparent Consumption and Profit: Apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils declined, and rebar contract's disk profit showed an expanding loss [21] - Spot Gross Margin: Spot gross margin of long - process and short - process steel mills' rebar showed expanding losses [25] Conclusions and Recommendations - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils: Downside space is limited. Consider buying hedging or investment in large basis intervals, or arbitrage strategies. Pay attention to spot market resilience and production data [25][28] - Basis: Rebar basis is expected to oscillate between 120 - 180 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil basis is expected to oscillate between 0 - 40 yuan/ton [29][31] Group 5: Iron Ore Analysis Fundamentals - Price and Spread: 62% Platts iron ore index and Qingdao Port 61.5% PB powder price decreased. Spreads between some high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder changed [32] - Inventory and Ship - unloading Volume: 45 - port iron ore inventory accumulated rapidly, daily average ship - unloading volume increased, and steel mills' imported ore inventory available days remained at 21 days [35] - Shipment and Arrival: Australian and Brazilian shipments decreased, and arrivals increased. Near - term arrivals are expected to be high [39] - Domestic Production and Capacity Utilization: Domestic iron ore production decreased year - on - year, and domestic mine capacity utilization rate decreased [47] - Port Trading Volume and Hot Metal Cost: Port trading volume increased, and the average hot metal cost of 64 sample steel mills increased [49] - Hot Metal Output, Blast Furnace Operation: Daily average hot metal output decreased, blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased, and blast furnace operation rate increased. Steel enterprises' profitability decreased [52] - Steel Production and Inventory: Production and consumption of five major steel products decreased, and total inventory decreased [54] - Transportation Cost: Major iron ore freight prices increased, and BDI and BCI indices rose [59] Conclusions and Recommendations - Iron Ore: Supply has an increasing expectation, demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak. Consider the "long rebar, short iron ore" arbitrage strategy [64][65] - Basis: The basis between Qingdao Port iron ore spot price and iron ore futures 2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 40 - 100 yuan/ton [65]

Report Information - Report Title: Financial Futures Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For the stock index, in the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged due to the easing external environment and new policy expectations from the 15th Five - Year Plan. In the short - term, the index may oscillate around the key pressure level of 4000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index. A dumbbell strategy with balanced allocation of CSI 300 and CSI 500 is recommended [13]. - For treasury bonds, the negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November is a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the overall bond market environment has improved. It is recommended to seize allocation opportunities when there is market over - adjustment [87]. - For shipping indexes, although the actual demand may not support large price increases, the freight rate is likely to form an upward trend, and the bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips for the December contract [108]. Summary by Section Stock Index Market Review - The A - share market has shown a pattern of "short - term correction followed by strong performance, and rebound after a sharp decline due to external shocks" since the beginning of the year. From November 3 - 7, the A - share market rose with reduced volume. The Wind All - A index rose 0.62%, and large - cap blue - chip stocks performed better. Futures were weaker than the spot index [7][8]. - Looking ahead, concerns about liquidity in the US market and high expectations for Sino - US tariff negotiations have led to a weakening market after the positive news was released. Domestically, the economic fundamentals in September faced more pressure, and the export data in October showed a downward trend. Although the margin trading balance provided support, the participation of retail investors was not high. The overall A - share trading volume returned to 2 trillion yuan, and its sustainable growth needs attention [12][13]. 成交持仓分析 - Stock index trading volume decreased. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 1.13, 0.71, 0.79, and 0.46 million lots respectively compared with last week. The positions showed a differentiated trend. IF and IM positions increased, while IH and IC positions decreased [14]. 基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 - The basis showed a differentiated trend. The basis of CSI 300 and CSI 500 widened, while that of SSE 50 changed from premium to discount, and the basis of CSI 1000 narrowed. The annualized basis rate of each index decreased. The spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF, IC, and IM widened, while that of IH narrowed. The spread between the current - quarter and current - month contracts of all varieties widened. Large - cap blue - chip stocks performed relatively better [16][26][32]. Industry Sector Overview - In the CSI 300, the energy, industrial, and financial sectors led the gains, while the pharmaceutical, optional consumer, and information sectors led the losses. In the CSI 500, the energy, public utilities, and industrial sectors led the gains, while the real estate, pharmaceutical, and information sectors led the losses. Among the first - level industries, the power equipment, coal, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors led the gains, while the beauty care, computer, and pharmaceutical biology sectors led the losses [33][35]. Valuation Comparison - As of November 7, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.3295, 11.9766, 33.464, and 47.8124 times respectively, and they were at the 88.07%, 91.32%, 79.72%, and 77.08% percentile levels in the past decade [38]. Treasury Bonds This Week's Market Review - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The central bank's bond - buying was slightly lower than expected, and the warming of the A - share market suppressed the bond market. The performance of long - term futures was slightly stronger than that of spot bonds, while the opposite was true for short - term bonds. There is a certain positive arbitrage space for each variety's main contract, and there is a large reverse arbitrage space for non - CTD bonds of 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year main contracts. The basis of the 10 - year main contract is slightly high and has the motivation to converge. The spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts is expected to continue to narrow during the position - shifting process. A flattening strategy is recommended [42][44][51]. - **Bond Spot Market**: Most of the spot yields of treasury bonds increased this week, with a larger increase at the short end. The yield of US Treasury bonds first decreased and then increased [65]. - **Funding Situation**: At the beginning of the month, there was a net withdrawal of funds. The central bank conducted an equal - amount renewal of the 3 - month outright reverse repurchase due this month. The overall funding situation was stable, and there was no liquidity stratification between banks and non - banks [70]. - **Interest Rate Derivatives**: The yields of interest rate swap varieties increased slightly this week, and the liquidity expectation was stable [85]. Market Analysis - The bond market stabilized and strengthened in October. Currently, the economic fundamentals still face pressure, and the market's expectation of monetary easing may rise again. The restart of treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market, and the impact of wide - credit expectations on the bond market should be limited. Although there are some uncertain disturbances, the bond market environment has improved [87]. Next Week's Open - Market Maturities and Important Economic Calendar - There are a total of 783 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due next week, and important economic data such as China's October social financing data and national economic activity data will be released [95]. Shipping Index Market Review - The reduction of quotes hit the sentiment of long - positions. This week, the SCFIS index turned down again. On the spot side, shipping companies reduced the price increase, which hit the sentiment of long - positions and led to a sharp decline in EC futures [96]. Container Shipping Market Situation - **Spot Market**: The freight rates of ocean routes continued to rebound, with the rates of European and American routes rising. Shipping companies continued to raise the quotes for November and December, but the increase was lower than before. Considering the general demand and the decline of the SCFIS index, it is uncertain whether the price increase can be fully implemented [102][103]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the container shipping capacity in Europe in November remained at a relatively high level in the off - season, and the potential and actual shipping capacities are expected to continue to grow. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to deteriorate, and the probability of the Red Sea resuming navigation within the year is low. On the demand side, the macro - demand in the eurozone continues to recover weakly, and the demand at the end - of - year peak season may be lower than expected, so the support for container shipping prices is limited [106][107]. Market Outlook - Although the actual demand may not support a large price increase, the freight rate is likely to form an upward trend, and the bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips for the December contract [108].

Report Information - Report Type: Macro Precious Metals Weekly Report - Date: November 7, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [1][2] Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The Fed may pause rate cuts again, which will support the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields in the short term and suppress the upward momentum of stocks and commodities including gold [8]. - The precious metals intermediate bull market that started in March 2024 has not ended. London gold may rise to $4,500 and $4,800 per ounce in the next six months and one year respectively, and London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position trading strategy [35]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Environment Review 1.1 Economy - **Domestic**: In October 2025, China's total exports shrank by 1.1% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing by 9.4 percentage points compared to September. Total imports increased by 1% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing by 6.4 percentage points. From January to October, China's cumulative total exports increased by 5.3% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing by 0.8 percentage points; cumulative total imports shrank by 0.9% year - on - year, with the shrinkage degree narrowing by 0.2 percentage points; the cumulative trade surplus was $964.82 billion, a year - on - year increase of 22.1%. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative exports to the US shrank by 17.7% year - on - year, and the export share decreased from 14.7% in 2024 to 11.4%; exports to the EU increased by 7.7% year - on - year, and the export share increased from 14.4% to 14.9%; exports to ASEAN increased by 14.5% year - on - year, and the export share increased from 16.4% to 17.5% [5]. - **International**: Due to the continued shutdown of the US federal government, official statistical data has been missing since October. In October, ADP private non - farm payrolls increased by 42,000, better than the market expectation of 30,000, indicating a preliminary reversal of the employment contraction in the past two months, but the overall weakness of the job market has not been fundamentally improved. Challenger Gray & Christmas reported that US companies announced 153,000 layoffs in October, the highest in more than 20 years, mainly in the technology and warehousing industries, and the scale of corporate recruitment plans also dropped to the lowest level in the same period since 2011 [7]. 1.2 Focus - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimated on November 6 that the US real GDP in the third quarter of 2025 would grow at an annualized rate of 4% quarter - on - quarter. The Fed may pause rate cuts again soon after restarting the rate - cut process, which will support the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields in the short term and suppress the upward momentum of stocks and commodities including gold [8]. - After the Fed's October meeting, many officials expressed their views on monetary policy. The threshold for the Fed to cut rates again at the December 9 - 10 meeting is rising. On November 7, the market's probability of the Fed cutting rates by 75BP within the year was 61.8%, a slight decline of 1 percentage point from the previous week [9][11]. - On November 5, the US Supreme Court questioned the legality of Trump's large - scale tariff collection. Trump said that if he loses the lawsuit, he will consider changing the legal basis to maintain his tariff measures, but these measures will take a long time to implement [12]. - On November 5, Russian President Putin ordered the government to draft a nuclear weapons test plan. Russia's Defense Minister reported that preparations for a full - scale nuclear test should be made immediately [13]. 1.3 Policy - On October 29, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly issued an announcement on the gold tax policy, aiming to regulate the gold market, expand tax sources, and suppress the boom in private gold investment. It is expected to have an impact on China's private physical gold investment demand, but it has little impact on gold prices [14]. 2. Precious Metals Market Analysis 2.1 US Treasury Yields and US Dollar Exchange Rate - The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the second half of 2025, with a core fluctuation range of 95 - 102. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to be slightly stronger but face upward pressure, with short - and medium - term resistance levels at 7.06 and 6.97 respectively [24]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield is expected to have a core fluctuation range of 3.8 - 4.5% in the second half of 2025 [27]. 2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - As of October 23, 2025, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,040.4 tons, 21.4% higher than the阶段性 low in May 2024; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,114 tons, 13.4% higher than the阶段性 low in May 2024 [28]. 2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system continue to push up the volatility center of gold prices. In the medium - term, the risk of stagflation in the US and global economic recession is rising, which makes gold prices stronger [31]. - In the short - term, gold prices soared to a record high in mid - October but then significantly corrected. The internal adjustment risk of gold and silver prices has been partially released. Investors are advised to pay attention to the opportunity to go long again [33][35]. 2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The gold - to - silver ratio in London and Shanghai on Friday was 82.3 and 80.2 respectively. The correlation between gold and the US dollar index has changed from negative to positive; the negative correlation between gold and the real US Treasury yield has weakened; the negative correlation between gold and crude oil has strengthened; and the positive correlation between gold and silver remains strong [37].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a carbon market weekly report dated November 07, 2025, from the Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [2][3] Group 2: Carbon Market Weekly Summary - In October, the national carbon market's comprehensive price had a high of 59.30 yuan/ton, a low of 50.34 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 51.96 yuan/ton, down 10.37% from the previous month. The trading volume and turnover of listed agreement transactions were 10,525,810 tons and 487,117,084.12 yuan respectively; for bulk agreement transactions, they were 30,936,720 tons and 1,496,842,246.87 yuan; and for single - sided bidding, 100,000 tons and 4,475,000 yuan [7] - In the first week of November, the comprehensive price had a high of 58.51 yuan/ton, a low of 51.54 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 57.79 yuan/ton, up 11.22% from the previous Friday. The trading volume and turnover of listed agreement transactions were 3,981,155 tons and 209,744,110.26 yuan respectively; for bulk agreement transactions, 5,154,502 tons and 248,501,748.01 yuan; and for single - sided bidding, 100,000 tons and 4,894,850 yuan. The total trading volume and turnover were 9,235,657 tons and 463,140,708.27 yuan [7] - Since June this year, the national carbon quota price has been declining. The current price is around 50 yuan/ton, similar to the opening price in 2021 and over 50% lower than the 2024 high. The new policy aims to solve the problem of enterprises' reluctance to sell. The current low carbon price is partly due to the concentrated selling of surplus enterprises under the carry - over rule. The price may stabilize after the selling pressure eases in November [8] - According to the Fudan Carbon Index, in November 2025, the expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) is 47.59 yuan/ton, the selling price is 55.42 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 51.51 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the expected buying price is 55.63 yuan/ton, the selling price is 65.35 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 60.50 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the expected buying price of China Certified Emission Reductions (CCER) is 59.67 yuan/ton, the selling price is 68.17 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 63.92 yuan/ton [8][9] Group 3: Market News - On October 23, the National Energy Administration reported that in September, the全社会 electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kWh, up 4.5% year - on - year. In the first three quarters, the cumulative electricity consumption was 7,767.5 billion kWh, up 4.6% year - on - year. The third - quarter electricity consumption was 2.9 trillion kWh, driven by high - temperature in July and the recovery of the macro - economy [10] - On October 24, it was announced that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, China will accelerate the green and low - carbon transformation of energy, build a new energy system, and implement the dual - control system of carbon emission volume and intensity. It aims to reach about 4.5 billion tons of bulk solid waste utilization by 2030 and save over 150 million tons of standard coal in key industries, reducing about 400 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [10] - Recently, the General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued an opinion to expand the coverage of the national carbon emission trading market to mainly cover industrial emission industries by 2027, implement quota control and paid distribution, gradually tighten quotas, strengthen the synergy between the carbon market and industrial policies, and accelerate the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market [10] Group 4: Market Data - There are figures about the national carbon market price trend, pilot carbon market price, power generation year - on - year growth rate, and new power generation equipment year - on - year growth rate, with data sources from Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [6][7][12]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - The three major fats and oils are under overall pressure. The core contradiction lies in the game between the global fat and oil supply tending to be loose and the seasonal weakening of demand, coupled with increased uncertainty in biodiesel policies. Technically, the three major fats and oils continue to explore the bottom and build a base [8][9]. Live Pigs - On the supply side, in the long - term, pig slaughter may generally maintain a slight growth trend until the first half of next year. In the short - term, the planned slaughter volume in November decreased month - on - month, but the daily average remained the same. On the demand side, the secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the terminal consumption may gradually improve, but the overall increase may be limited. Overall, the spot price may fluctuate, and the futures price may be weak in the medium - to - long - term [97]. Corn - On the supply side, new - crop corn has increased production, and supply is sufficient. Substitute advantages are weakening, and future imports may remain at a low level. On the demand side, feed demand is improving, and deep - processing enterprises' procurement enthusiasm has increased. The spot price may fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price may be affected by various factors [141][142]. Soybean Meal - In the short - term, soybean meal should be treated with caution and a slightly bullish attitude. The risk lies in the collapse of the cost - increase expectation if China only makes a small amount of purchases of US soybeans [147]. Eggs - The spot price may not have a sustained rebound unless there is emotional support. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and a straddle double - selling strategy is recommended for options [183]. Summary by Directory Fats and Oils 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Palm oil continued to decline, with weak demand and ample supply. Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025, and Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October is estimated to increase [8]. - Soybean oil futures slightly followed the decline and made narrow - range adjustments. High domestic soybean oil inventory and palm oil's weakness suppressed prices, while import costs provided support [9]. - Rapeseed oil fluctuated sideways. The supply is still uncertain, and the inventory is at a relatively high level but is being depleted [9]. 2. Core Points - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of November 6, 2025, the price of first - grade soybean oil in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton weekly, the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in East China increased by 40 yuan/ton weekly, and the price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China decreased by 210 yuan/ton weekly [10]. - **Domestic Three - Major Fats and Oils Inventory**: As of the end of the 44th week, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 2.21% week - on - week and increased by 16.71% year - on - year [23]. - **Domestic Fat and Oil and Oilseed Supply**: As of the end of the 44th week, the soybean opening rate of domestic major soybean oil mills decreased. The total soybean crushing volume this week was 231.10 million tons, a decrease of 18.13 million tons from last week [26]. - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 12.31% month - on - month. India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low [35]. - **CFTC Positions**: No specific analysis provided in the text. Live Pigs 1. Market Review - Spot prices continued to be weak due to oversupply. The national average live pig slaughter price this week was 12.16 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg. Futures prices rebounded slightly [50]. 2. Fundamental Overview - **Long - Term Supply: Breeding Sows Inventory**: The price of binary sows was relatively stable, and the replenishment willingness of farmers was low. As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly [53]. - **Medium - Term Supply: Piglet Inventory**: The price of 15 - kg piglets increased slightly this week. As of October, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [72]. - **Short - Term Supply: Large Pig Inventory, Hogging and Secondary Fattening**: As of October, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises increased. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased, and the proportion of secondary fattening sales increased in late October [73][76]. - **Current Supply: Commercial Pig Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Weight**: In October 2025, the actual sales of commercial pigs exceeded the plan. The planned sales volume in November decreased month - on - month. The average slaughter weight this week increased slightly [80][81]. - **Import Supply: Pork Imports**: In September, China's pork imports remained the same month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. From January to September, the total imports decreased by 11.24% year - on - year [88]. - **Demand**: The enthusiasm for secondary fattening decreased in November. The slaughter enterprise's开工 rate decreased this week [90][92]. 3. Future Outlook - The supply is expected to be stable, and the demand may increase slightly. The spot price may fluctuate, and the futures price may be weak in the medium - to - long - term [97]. Corn 1. Market Review - Spot prices varied by region. Futures prices rose by 2.04% week - on - week [101][102]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Corn Supply**: The grain - selling progress is faster than the same period last year. As of October 31, the inventory in northern ports increased by 14 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory in southern ports increased by 13.5 million tons week - on - week [103][106]. - **Domestic Substitutes**: Wheat prices showed regional differentiation. The price difference between corn and wheat is 297 yuan/ton [108][109]. - **Import Substitute Grains**: In September 2025, China's grain imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Corn imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [111]. - **Feed Demand**: In September 2025, the national industrial feed output increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The average inventory time of sample feed enterprises increased by 3.24% week - on - week [125][129]. - **Deep - Processing Demand**: The starch industry's operating rate increased. The total corn processing volume this week was 59.73 million tons, an increase of 2.33 million tons from last week [132]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The 2025/26 corn production is expected to increase by 0.4% year - on - year, and the consumption is expected to be basically the same as the previous year [136]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy - The supply is sufficient, and substitute advantages are weakening. The demand is improving, but the inventory - building willingness is not strong. The spot price may fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price may be affected by various factors [141][142]. Soybean Meal 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot prices rose. Futures prices followed the CBOT soybeans and rose. The short - term attitude towards soybean meal should be cautious and slightly bullish [145][147]. 2. Core Points - **Soybean Planting**: The new - season US soybean planting area decreased year - on - year. As of November 1, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 47.1% [148][150]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of September 18, US soybean exports were lower than the same period last year. There is a risk that US soybean exports may fall short of expectations [157]. - **Domestic Soybean Imports and Crushing**: As of November 6, the soybean crushing profit was negative. The oil mill's operating rate may decline in the future [163]. - **Soybean Meal Transactions and Inventory**: As of October 31, the domestic major oil mills' soybean meal inventory increased by 8.7% week - on - week. The terminal demand is relatively good [170]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: As of November 6, the 01 contract basis was about 49.43, and the 1 - 5 spread was 248 [175]. - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 6, the number of domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts was 42,102 hands, at a relatively high level in the same period of history [181]. Eggs 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The spot market improved. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and a straddle double - selling strategy is recommended for options [183]. 2. Data Summary - **Inventory and Replenishment**: As of the end of October 2025, the national in - production laying - hen inventory decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The egg - chick replenishment continued to slow down [184]. - **Cost, Income and Breeding Profit**: As of November 6, egg prices increased slightly week - on - week but were significantly lower than the same period last year. The breeding profit was in a loss state and deteriorated compared with last week [191][193].

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Industry Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The international oil price is expected to oscillate in the short - term but face continuous oversupply pressure in the medium - term. For oil, it is advisable to try short - selling on rebounds. [7][8] - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand and a narrowing basis after the decline. [35] - The PTA market is expected to rise slightly, and the ethylene glycol market is expected to continue a slight rebound. [62] - The price of polyester staple fiber may rise slightly, with cost support and weak supply - demand factors. [71] - The soda ash market is expected to see the futures price drop to near the recent low, and it is advisable to short - sell on rallies if it breaks through the 1200 yuan/ton resistance level. [79] - The industrial silicon futures price will continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but there is strong resistance above. [101] - The polysilicon futures price will oscillate in a wide range, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the range and wait for policy signals for breakthrough opportunities. [123] - The pulp market will have a limited short - term rebound and is advisable for reverse arbitrage. [140] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: International oil prices oscillated this week with a narrowing amplitude. The market lacks short - term drivers and is expected to oscillate. Medium - term oversupply pressure persists. Operationally, try short - selling on rebounds. [7][8] - **Fundamental Changes**: US crude inventories increased, refinery inputs rose seasonally, and refined product inventories decreased. OPEC+ will stop increasing production in Q1 2026, but it's hard to reverse the oversupply. Supply growth far exceeds demand growth, and the inventory accumulation rate is accelerating. [9][10][11] Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The cost end (crude oil) lacks support. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the basis has narrowed after the decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [34][35] - **Fundamental Changes**: The cost end has mid - term oversupply pressure. The asphalt production capacity may increase slightly next week. Demand shows regional differentiation, with weak speculative demand. Factory and social inventories both decreased this week. [36][37][39] Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Crude oil fundamentals are mixed, and PX is expected to oscillate strongly, supporting PTA costs. PTA is expected to rise slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to rebound slightly. [61][62] - **Main Driving Forces**: Downstream consumption is stable in the short - term but has a weakening expectation. PTA supply may decrease, and its fundamentals are strong. Ethylene glycol has cost support and a rebound demand. [63][64][66] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The cost end supports the market, but supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. The price may rise slightly. [71] - **Main Driving Forces**: Downstream consumption support is limited. The short - fiber industry's operation is stable, and supply is sufficient. Cost support is strong, but supply - demand factors drag down the price. [72][73][74] Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The futures price oscillated weakly this week, with supply remaining high, demand weakening, and inventory slightly increasing. It is expected to drop further, and it is advisable to short - sell on rallies if it breaks through 1200 yuan/ton. [76][78][79] - **Market Conditions**: Supply is stable with a slight decline in production. Inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate. Spot prices are expected to oscillate narrowly. Glass demand for soda ash is weakening, and exports decreased in September. [80][83][93] Industrial Silicon - **Futures Review and Outlook**: The futures price has been oscillating strongly recently. The main driving force is the seasonal production reduction in the southwest, but the supply - demand imbalance improvement is limited. The price may continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term with strong upper resistance. [101] - **Fundamental Overview**: The price of industrial silicon and its related products is stable. Inventory is slowly accumulating, and production is decreasing. The demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and other products is relatively stable. [102][103][105] Polysilicon - **Market Review and Outlook**: The price is weaker than other varieties this week. The supply - demand improvement drive is limited. The price will continue to be in a stalemate in the short - term and oscillate in a wide range. It is advisable to buy on dips in the range and wait for policy signals for breakthrough opportunities. [123] - **Photovoltaic Industry Fundamentals**: The prices of main products in the industry are stable. Inventory has increased slightly. Production in the supply - end may decline in November, mid - stream demand is stable, and terminal demand is weak. [124][125][126] Pulp - **Market Review and Outlook**: The futures price rebounded this week. Macro pressure has weakened, imports have decreased, and inventory has declined, but the industry profit improvement is limited. The short - term rebound space is limited, and reverse arbitrage is advisable. [139][140] - **Fundamental Changes**: The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries in August increased. China's pulp imports decreased in October. Global and domestic pulp inventories have different trends. Downstream paper performance is still differentiated. [141][149][156]