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建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20251112
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 07:21
021-60635736 期货从业资格号:F3033782 投资咨询证书号:Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 12 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员:翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:聂嘉怡 研究员:冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1:11月11日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况(单位:元/吨、手、亿元) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2601 | 174 ...
碳酸锂期货日报-20251112
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 07:11
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: Carbonate lithium futures prices rose significantly, with total positions increasing by 77,114 lots. After the evaluation report of the Jianxiawo mining area was released, the resumption time of the mine was postponed, and strong demand led to a short - term influx of funds. However, the current futures market sentiment is more exuberant than the spot market, and there is a high risk of short - term chasing [11]. - Spot Market: The price of electric carbon increased by 350 to 80,750. The spot price was significantly at a discount to the futures price. The price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte slowed down. The price of Australian ore increased by 55 to 995, lithium mica ore increased by 60, ternary materials increased by 100 - 1,500, and lithium iron phosphate increased by 80 - 90. The industrial chain is still in the price - rising channel [11]. Group 3: Industry News - Copper in Data Centers: As the power density of AI servers exceeds 100kW/cabinet, high - speed copper cables are gradually replacing some optical modules as the mainstream choice for internal interconnection in data centers. In 2026, the global copper demand in data centers is expected to reach 710,000 tons, with AI - related scenarios contributing over 40% of the increase [12]. - Fortune Minerals: Fortune Minerals received a binding loan offer of CAD 3.8 million (about USD 2.7 million) from Prosper NWT. The loan will help the company acquire a refinery and existing facilities in Lamont County, Alberta. The company plans to build a hydrometallurgical plant there to process concentrates from the NICO cobalt - gold - bismuth - copper mine. The NICO project is in the late - stage development phase, and the mine's core deposit has a reserve of 33.1 million tons [12]. - NICO Project Funding: In March, the NICO project received additional funding support from the Canadian and US governments. The Canadian domestic funding reached CAD 7.5 million (about USD 5.5 million), covering 75% of the CAD 10 million additional engineering and testing work. The US Department of Defense awarded the company USD 6.38 million to expand cobalt production capacity [13]
建信期货工业硅日报-20251112
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 07:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price showed a weak and volatile trend. The Si2601 contract closed at 9,180 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.54%. The supply has decreased from 98,000 tons to 90,000 tons, and the total demand is 386,000 tons. The resistance in the short - term upper intensive trading area is still strong, and the spot price stalemate restricts the upward momentum of the futures price. The price is in a convergent and volatile state [4]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures price was weakly volatile. The Si2601 contract closed at 9,180 yuan/ton, down 0.54%. The trading volume was 326,774 lots, and the open interest was 270,959 lots, with a net decrease of 10,544 lots. The spot price was stable, with the 553 price ranging from 9,100 to 9,500 yuan/ton and the 421 price ranging from 9,750 to 9,950 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market News - On November 11, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 46,079 lots, a net decrease of 176 lots from the previous trading day. On November 7, the industrial silicon market inventory was 452,400 tons, a weekly increase of 1.05% and a year - on - year increase of 42.49%. The weekly output was 90,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 7.85% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. On October 30, Hesheng Silicon Industry released its Q3 2025 report. Its operating income in the first three quarters was 15.206 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 25.35%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was - 321 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 122.1%. The net cash flow from operating activities was 3.727 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 104.94%. In the third quarter, the operating income was 5.43 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 23.51% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 19.42%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 76 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 84.12% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 111.52% [5]. 3.3 Future Outlook - The weekly output has decreased from 98,000 tons to 90,000 tons. Pay attention to the implementation of the expected production cuts in the southwest region. In the short term, it is difficult to see a reversal in supply and demand. The expected output of polysilicon is also decreasing, and the total demand is 386,000 tons. The resistance in the short - term upper intensive trading area is still strong, and the stalemate in the spot price restricts the upward momentum of the futures price. The price of the main contract is still oscillating within the adjustment range after the anti - involution competition [4].
白糖日报-20251112
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 07:07
Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: November 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, New York raw sugar futures fluctuated strongly, with the main March contract rising 1.13% to 14.26 cents per pound. London ICE white sugar futures' main March contract rose 0.5% to $408.10 per ton. The Indian government plans to allow 1.5 million tons of sugar exports, but the market believes current sugar prices are below India's export parity, making exports difficult. Overnight, overseas stocks and commodities generally rose, and raw sugar followed the trend [7]. - Yesterday, the main Zhengzhou sugar contract rose first and then fell. The 01 contract closed at 5,480 yuan per ton, up 13 yuan or 0.24%, with an increase of 3,084 contracts in positions. The domestic spot sugar price remained flat, with 5,580 yuan per ton in Kunming and 5,840 yuan per ton in East China. The Guangxi Sugar Association issued a self - discipline convention for the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, stipulating that the crushing should not start earlier than November 30, but some sugar mills have announced their crushing start in mid - November. Zhengzhou sugar failed to rise strongly today, with obvious pressure at the 5,500 mark. In terms of funds, speculative short positions slightly decreased [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes**: SR601 closed at 5,480 yuan per ton, up 13 yuan or 0.24%, with a position of 376,327 contracts and an increase of 3,084 contracts; SR605 closed at 5,411 yuan per ton, up 11 yuan or 0.20%, with a position of 115,315 contracts and a decrease of 607 contracts; US sugar 03 closed at 14.26 cents per pound, up 0.16 cents or 1.13%, with a position of 483,461 contracts and an increase of 400 contracts; US sugar 05 closed at 13.86 cents per pound, up 0.13 cents or 0.95%, with a position of 170,718 contracts and an increase of 2,605 contracts [7]. - **Domestic Market**: The main Zhengzhou sugar contract rose first and then fell. The domestic spot sugar price remained flat. The Guangxi Sugar Association's self - discipline convention was not fully followed, and some sugar mills planned to start crushing earlier. Zhengzhou sugar faced pressure at 5,500, and speculative short positions decreased [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Brazilian Sugar Exports**: In the first week of November, Brazil exported 685,701.91 tons of sugar, with a daily average export of 137,140.38 tons, a 23% decrease compared to the daily average export in November last year. In October, Brazil exported about 4.205 million tons of sugar, a 12.8% year - on - year increase. From April to October in the 2025/26 crushing season, Brazil cumulatively exported 21.9568 million tons of sugar, a 5.27% year - on - year decrease [9][10]. - **Chinese Sugar Supply and Demand**: The China Sugar Association adjusted the sugar import volume for the 2024/25 season down by 380,000 tons to 4.62 million tons. It is predicted that the sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 11.7 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons from the previous month's prediction, and the sugar consumption will be 15.7 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from the previous month's prediction. Southern sugar mills have started production, and 29 northern beet sugar mills have all started production, with a generally stable production situation [9]. - **Guangxi Sugar Production**: On November 15, some sugar mills in Guangxi are expected to start crushing, kicking off the 2025/26 production season, 7 days later than the same period last year. As of now, the number of sugar mills starting production before the end of November is expected to be significantly less than 61 last year, but some sugar mills in northern Guangxi will start earlier. In the past ten crushing seasons, the sugar production in Guangxi in November was between 40,000 and 510,000 tons, and the temperature difference was not obvious, which was not conducive to sugar accumulation [9]. - **Indian Sugar Exports**: The Indian central government has decided to allow the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025 - 26 crushing season starting from October [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including spot price trends, 2601 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the main Zhengzhou sugar contract [12][14][16]. - The trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the main Zhengzhou sugar contract show that the total trading volume was 171,320 contracts, a decrease of 16,172 contracts; the total long position was 257,739 contracts, an increase of 1,121 contracts; the total short position was 297,052 contracts, a decrease of 1,208 contracts [22].
建信期货生猪日报-20251112
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 07:07
Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report date: November 12, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to fluctuate as supply stabilizes and demand increases slightly, but the support from second - round fattening is weak. The futures market, specifically the 2601 contract, may show a long - term weakening trend due to increased supply and concentrated second - round fattening and pressure - barring in October [9]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market conditions**: On November 11, the main 2601 futures contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, fluctuated downward, and closed with a negative line. The highest was 11,995 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,750 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,755 yuan/ton, down 1.80% from the previous day. The total index positions increased by 16,981 lots to 368,545 lots. The national average price of external ternary pigs was 11.87 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Analysis**: In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. The concentrated second - round fattening and pressure - barring in October increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, the planned sales volume in November decreased by 3.27% compared to the actual sales volume in October. The demand side shows that second - round fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Terminal consumption is rising but with insufficient incremental growth. The slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises on November 11 was 162,400 heads, an increase of 100 heads from the previous day, 4,400 heads week - on - week, and 6,600 heads month - on - month [9]. 2. Industry News - There is no specific content about industry news in the report, only the titles of some related data charts are given. 3. Data Overview - As of October 30, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 34.5 yuan/head, a monthly increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit per pig from purchasing piglets was - 258 yuan/head, a monthly increase of 50 yuan/head [13]. - As of October 31, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 55.5%, a monthly increase of 21.2 percentage points, the same as the previous year [13]. - As of the end of October, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.71 yuan/jin, a monthly increase of 0.36 yuan/jin [13]. - As of the end of October, the cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg from the previous month [13]. - The average slaughter weight of pigs in October was 128.1 kg, a decrease of 0.3 kg from September, a monthly decrease of 0.23%, and an increase of 2.2 kg compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% [13]. - In September, the slaughter volume of large - scale pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 28.5% [13].
建信期货MEG日报-20251112
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 07:05
行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 12 日 料油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 业硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 期货从业资格号:F03134307 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 请阅读正文后的声 ...
纯碱、玻璃日报-20251112
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 07:04
Group 1: Report Information - The report is a daily report on the soda ash and glass industries dated November 12, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term, with a long - term supply - exceeding - demand pattern likely to continue due to weakening demand from the glass industry and sufficient supply [8] - The glass market is currently in a state of high supply and weak demand. The short - term price is mainly volatile, and the medium - term market is likely to trend downward if there is no new market stimulus [9] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Futures Data**: On November 11, for the SA601 contract, the opening price was 1225 yuan/ton, the highest was 1238 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1209 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1215 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.33%, with a position reduction of 31,964 lots. For the SA605 contract, the opening price was 1300 yuan/ton, the highest was 1309 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1285 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1292 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.07%, with a position increase of 6944 lots [7] - **Soda Ash Market Analysis**: The weekly production of soda ash decreased 1.41% to 746,900 tons. The total shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises at the beginning of November decreased 3.14% to 733,900 tons. The inventory of soda ash plants slightly increased to 1,714,200 tons. The short - term price rebound was affected by the increase in light soda ash price and equipment maintenance, while the long - term supply - demand relationship is weak [8] - **Glass Futures Data**: On November 11, for the FG601 contract, the opening price was 1066 yuan/ton, the highest was 1071 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1051 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1053 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 1.86%, with a position increase of 83,472 lots. For the FG605 contract, the opening price was 1203 yuan/ton, the highest was 1206 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1182 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1184 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton or 1.90%, with a position increase of 17,297 lots [7] - **Glass Market Analysis**: Four coal - fired production lines in Shahe were shut down in the short - term. The glass industry is at a high supply level this year. The inventory after the festival remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The short - term price is volatile, and the medium - term may trend downward [9] 2. Data Overview - The report provides data on the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, weekly production and enterprise inventory of soda ash, market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and flat glass production, with data sources including Wind and iFind [13][14][15]
建信期货PTA日报-20251112
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 07:02
PTA 日报 行业 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 日期 2025 年 11 月 12 日 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1:期货行情 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌 | 总量 | 增减 | | TA2601 | 4648 | -24 ...
建信期货多晶硅日报-20251112
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 07:02
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The spot price of polysilicon will continue to be in a stalemate in the short - term. The supply improvement of polysilicon lacks internal driving force, and attention should be paid to the support strength at the lower edge of the range [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Performance - The price of the polysilicon main contract fluctuated strongly first. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 53,720 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.08%. The trading volume was 218,786 lots, and the open interest was 125,974 lots, with a net increase of 457 lots [4]. - The transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feeding materials was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also remaining flat month - on - month [4]. b. Future Market Outlook - In November, the polysilicon output was 120,000 tons. Whether the production cut will be implemented under the current profit improvement needs further observation. The output of downstream silicon wafers and cells remained stable at 55 - 60GW, but there was no optimistic expectation for the repair of the cliff - like decline in terminal demand. The industrial chain profit was currently concentrated in the silicon material end, and the downstream's willingness to continue price hikes was decreasing [4]. - The policy support continued to fall short, and the internal driving force for the improvement of polysilicon supply - demand was limited. There was an increase in positions and a decline in volume during the session, so attention should be paid to the support strength at the lower edge of the range (net short increase of 11,785) [4]. c. Market News - On November 11, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 9,850 lots, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [4]. - In September 2025, the newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 9.66GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. From January to September, the cumulative newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 240.27GW [4]. d. Energy Development Measures - Coordinate the external transmission and local consumption of "Shagehuang" new energy bases, optimize the integrated development and consumption of hydropower, wind, and solar bases, promote the standardized and orderly development and consumption of offshore wind power, scientifically and efficiently promote the development and consumption of provincial - level centralized new energy, and actively expand the development and consumption space of distributed new energy [4][5].
建信期货原油日报-20251112
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 06:48
Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report - Report Date: November 12, 2025 - Report Industry: Energy and Chemicals Core Viewpoint - The short - term market lacks drivers and is expected to move sideways, while the medium - term oil prices still face continuous oversupply pressure. It is recommended to try short positions on rebounds [6][7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: WTI's opening price was $59.87, closing at $60.05, with a high of $60.48, a low of $59.41, a daily increase of 0.50%, and a trading volume of 19.61 million hands. Brent's opening price was $63.8, closing at $63.94, with a high of $64.34, a low of $63.32, a daily increase of 0.49%, and a trading volume of 27.31 million hands. SC's opening price was 460.5 yuan/barrel, closing at 458.8 yuan/barrel, with a high of 462.1 yuan/barrel, a low of 457 yuan/barrel, a daily decrease of 0.30%, and a trading volume of 7.15 million hands [6] - **News**: The US government shutdown issue is expected to be resolved, supporting the recovery of market risk appetite. The overseas assets of Lukoil are continuously affected by US sanctions, and the West Qurna - 2 oilfield project is under force majeure and may withdraw from operation later [6] - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC+ has decided to temporarily stop increasing production in the first quarter of next year, which is marginally positive for the supply side. However, the inventory accumulation rate in the first quarter of next year may reach 3 million barrels per day, and the current policies alone are difficult to reverse the oversupply [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Try short positions on rebounds [7] 2. Industry News - Saudi Arabia and Iraq have allocated their entire December crude oil supplies to Indian refiners - Two Indian state - owned enterprises have bought 5 million barrels of oil from the US and the Middle East - Iraq's SOMO has cancelled three crude oil cargoes originally scheduled to be shipped by Lukoil in November - Lukoil has declared force majeure on the West Qurna - 2 project in Iraq and warned that it may withdraw from the project if the situation persists [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [9][13][20]