Jian Xin Qi Huo

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建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250829
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 01:49
1. Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Quotes Futures Market | Futures Contract | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7399 | 7364 | 7414 | 7360 | -63 | -0.85 | 412274 | 4664 | | Plastic 2605 | 7407 | 7365 | 7421 | 7365 | -68 | -0.91 | 26767 | 576 | | Plastic 2509 | 7344 | 7310 | 7360 | 7309 | -63 | -0.85 | 34910 | -7171 | | PP2601 | 7041 | 7021 | 7056 | 7014 | -51 | -0.72 | 481684 | 7338 | | PP2605 | 7060 | 7035 | 7075 | 7031 | -54 | -0.76 | 39064 | 980 | | PP2509 | 6987 | 6963 | 7006 | 6961 | -51 | -0.73 | 20395 | -6062 | [5] Spot Market - LLDPE: Prices in North China are 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China are 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton, and in South China are 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton [7] - PP: North China's mainstream drawbench prices are 6860 - 7000 yuan/ton, East China's are 6850 - 7000 yuan/ton, and South China's are 6840 - 7060 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene: The mainstream price in Shandong market is 6550 - 6600 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous workday [7] 3. Market Review and Outlook - L2601 opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed at 7358 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-0.42%), with a trading volume of 220,000 lots and an increase in open interest by 1293 lots to 413,567 lots. PP2601 closed at 7020 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan (-0.23%), with an increase in open interest by 14,800 lots to 496,500 lots [6] - The weak futures market has affected the spot market sentiment. Traders are actively destocking at the end of the month, and the offers are slightly weaker. The impact of maintenance is decreasing, and new production capacities are being released steadily, which suppresses the market from the supply side. The demand side is gradually transitioning to the peak season, and the overall downstream operating rate is expected to increase, but the short - term raw material procurement is still cautious. The market sentiment has weakened, and the decline in crude oil prices has reduced the cost support, so polyolefins are oscillating weakly [6] 4. Industry News - On August 28, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 670,000 tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons (-4.96%) from the previous workday, compared with 695,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - Propylene producers' shipments are smooth, and they still have some willingness to support prices. However, downstream factories mainly purchase at lower prices, and their acceptance of propylene prices has slightly decreased [7] - The PP market has slightly loosened, with some prices falling by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. Before noon, downstream factories were cautiously waiting and watching, with limited active inquiries, and the pre - noon trading was weak [7]
建信期货工业硅日报-20250829
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 01:46
Report Information - Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Industrial Silicon Daily Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,515 yuan/ton, down 2.85%, with a trading volume of 450,290 lots and an open interest of 281,839 lots, a net decrease of 7,286 lots [4]. - The spot price of industrial silicon opened low and moved high, fluctuating. The price of 553-grade silicon in Sichuan was 8,950 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 8,600 yuan/ton; the price of 421-grade silicon in Inner Mongolia was 9,500 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,300 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,700 yuan/ton [4]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon both increased, maintaining a loose balance, with limited improvement in fundamentals. The high spot price loosened and declined. The weekly output in the third week of August increased to 88,100 tons, equivalent to a monthly output of over 370,000 tons. On the demand side, the production schedule of polysilicon in August will increase to 125,000 tons, while the demand from organic silicon and aluminum alloy remained stable. The export volume in July increased slightly to 70,000 tons. Without considering 97-grade silicon and recycled silicon, there is no inventory reduction drive in the industry. With policies in a vacuum period, short-term futures fluctuations gradually return to fundamental drivers. The spot price is mainly stable, but the high price has loosened, and the futures price will fluctuate widely [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,515 yuan/ton, down 2.85%, with a trading volume of 450,290 lots and an open interest of 281,839 lots, a net decrease of 7,286 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of industrial silicon opened low and moved high, fluctuating. The price of 553-grade silicon in Sichuan was 8,950 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 8,600 yuan/ton; the price of 421-grade silicon in Inner Mongolia was 9,500 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,300 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,700 yuan/ton [4]. - **Future Outlook**: Supply and demand both increased, maintaining a loose balance, with limited improvement in fundamentals. The high spot price loosened and declined. The weekly output in the third week of August increased to 88,100 tons, equivalent to a monthly output of over 370,000 tons. On the demand side, the production schedule of polysilicon in August will increase to 125,000 tons, while the demand from organic silicon and aluminum alloy remained stable. The export volume in July increased slightly to 70,000 tons. Without considering 97-grade silicon and recycled silicon, there is no inventory reduction drive in the industry. With policies in a vacuum period, short-term futures fluctuations gradually return to fundamental drivers. The spot price is mainly stable, but the high price has loosened, and the futures price will fluctuate widely [4]. 2. Market News - On August 28, the futures warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,656 lots, a net decrease of 53 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, China exported 74,000 tons of metallic silicon in July 2025, a month-on-month increase of 8.32% and a year-on-year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, China exported a total of 414,700 tons of metallic silicon, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04% [5]. - On August 28, Hesheng Silicon Industry released its semi-annual report for 2025. The company's operating income was 9.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.3%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 397 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 140.6%; the non-recurring net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 533 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 159.3%; the net operating cash flow was 3.524 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1,987.9%; the EPS (fully diluted) was -0.3359 yuan. In the second quarter, the company's operating income was 4.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.1%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 657 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 245.9%; the non-recurring net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 749 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 297.3%; the EPS was -0.5555 yuan [5]. - Data showed that the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity from January to July 2025 reached 1,109.6 GW, and the newly installed capacity from January to July was 223.25 GW. In July, the newly installed capacity was 11 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].
建信期货原油日报-20250829
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 01:44
Report Information - Report Name: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: August 29, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Core View - The overall consumption in the US during the peak season this year is weak, and the market has digested the expected interest - rate cut in the US to some extent. There is no driving force for oil prices currently. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate and build a bottom, and may decline again in the medium term [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $63.31, closing at $63.86, with a high of $64.23, a low of $62.95, a daily increase of 0.96%, and a trading volume of 17.84 million hands. Brent's opening price was $66.85, closing at $67.20, with a high of $67.51, a low of $66.37, a daily increase of 0.75%, and a trading volume of 32.39 million hands. SC's opening price was 482.5 yuan/barrel, closing at 481.7 yuan/barrel, with a high of 483.6 yuan/barrel, a low of 478.4 yuan/barrel, a daily decrease of 0.97%, and a trading volume of 9.34 million hands [6]. - **Analysis**: As of the week ending on the 22nd, the inventories of crude oil and refined oil in the US decreased, which supported oil prices to some extent. However, the US peak travel season is coming to an end, and the refinery operating rate has slightly decreased. There may be insufficient positive factors for oil prices in the later period. Even with lower gasoline prices this summer compared to last year, consumption has not improved significantly [6]. 2. Industry News - Hungary's MOL: After the restart of the Druzhba pipeline, crude oil supplies have reached Hungary and Slovakia [7]. - White House Trade Advisor Navarro: India can get a 25% tariff discount if it stops buying Russian oil [7]. - Market news: Russia will extend the full - scale gasoline export ban until September [7]. - EIA report: Last week, the US imported about 74,000 barrels per day of crude oil from Venezuela, the first weekly import since July [7]. 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, Dtd Brent prices, WTI and Oman spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories. The data sources are Bloomberg, wind, CFTC, and EIA [9][11][19][22]
建信期货锌期货日报-20250828
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 03:03
021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3075681 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员:彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 28 日 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1:期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位:元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2509 | 22280 | 22305 | 22400 | 22280 | 5 | 0.02 | 26001 | -5368 | | 沪锌 | 2510 | 22 ...
建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250828
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 02:35
021-60635736 期货从业资格号:F3033782 投资咨询证书号:Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 28 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员:翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:聂嘉怡 研究员:冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1:8月27日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况(单位:元/吨、手、亿元) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2601 | 1681 ...
建信期货铁矿石日评-20250828
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 02:34
Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 27, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 775.5 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The accident at the SimFer mine in Guinea had a limited impact, and the production is expected to resume soon. The short - term bullish sentiment has faded [7][10][11]. - Fundamentally, the supply of iron ore has a slightly rising trend, and the subsequent arrivals may show a pattern of low first and high later. The demand side remains strong, but the profit of steel production has declined, and the 9.3 limit - production may affect both terminal demand and blast - furnace demand. The market is worried about the potential weakening of demand in the future [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review** - On August 27, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract oscillated weakly, opening at 776 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 781.5 yuan/ton and a low of 773 yuan/ton, and closing at 775.5 yuan/ton, down 0.64% [7]. - The prices of major iron ore outer - market quotes remained flat on August 27 compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 3 - 5 yuan/ton [9]. - The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to rise, and the green column of the daily MACD indicator has narrowed for 3 consecutive trading days [9]. - **Outlook** - The accident at the SimFer mine in Guinea had a limited impact, and the production is expected to resume soon. The short - term bullish sentiment has faded [10][11]. - Supply: The weekly shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased slightly last week, with a significant increase in Australian shipments and a decline in Brazilian shipments. The total shipments in the past four weeks increased by 1.8% compared with the previous four weeks. Considering the shipping time, the subsequent arrivals may be low first and high later [11]. - Demand: The production enthusiasm of enterprises remains high, and the molten iron output has increased for two consecutive weeks, remaining above 2.4 million tons. Regarding the 9.3 limit - production, according to Mysteel's survey, most steel mills received oral notices of environmental protection limit - production, mainly for sintering machines with a 30% - 40% reduction. Only 13 steel mills said that blast - furnace production was restricted. The steel production profit has declined recently, which may affect future production enthusiasm [11]. - Downstream: The demand for steel products recovered last week, but its sustainability needs to be observed. Considering the possible phased suspension of infrastructure projects in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region before September 3, a cautious attitude is recommended, and the demand may weaken again [11]. 3.2 Industry News - On August 25, 2025, the Australian Anti - Dumping Commission announced the postponement of the release of the basic fact report and final recommendation of the anti - dumping sunset review investigation on imported wire rods from China. The basic fact report is expected to be completed no later than December 10, 2025, and the final report will be submitted to the Australian Minister of Industry and Science no later than February 23, 2026 [13]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to iron ore and steel, including prices, shipments, arrivals, inventory, production capacity utilization, and consumption, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of CCB Futures [17][24][40]
碳酸锂期货日报-20250828
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 02:25
Report Overview - Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] - Report Type: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term carbonate lithium futures are expected to stop falling and recover, with attention on the 77,000 support level. The current high supply pressure persists, but the inventory inflection point is looming as the downstream peak season approaches and social inventories have been decreasing for two weeks [9]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestion - Market performance: Carbonate lithium first rose and then fell. The main contract of carbonate lithium futures once rose above 81,000 due to market speculation about the suspension of Yifeng mines, but then declined as market risk preference dropped in the afternoon. Total trading volume increased while total open interest decreased, indicating a strong sentiment of capital leaving the market [9]. - Spot and futures: The spot price of electric - carbon decreased by 100 to 81,600. The spot premium over the 09 contract was 2,540, slightly higher than the previous day. As the 09 contract approaches the delivery month, the futures and spot prices are expected to converge [9]. - Raw material prices and production profits: The prices of Australian ore and lithium mica ore remained flat. The production profit of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene narrowed to 1,988, and the production loss of salt plants using purchased lithium mica widened to 2,946. Despite this, salt - plant production enthusiasm remains high, and high supply pressure persists [9]. - Downstream product prices: The price of 5 - series power ternary materials remained flat, while the price of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 30. The upstream and downstream of the industrial chain showed resistance to price drops [9]. 2. Industry News - Energy innovation achievements: During the "High - quality Completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan" press conference, the National Energy Administration stated that during the 14th Five - Year Plan, new energy patents accounted for over 40% globally, and new energy technologies set new world records. New energy models and formats are booming, and new tracks are emerging, becoming an important source of new - quality productivity development [12]. - Company development: Del股份 is deeply involved in oxide solid - state battery technology, has built a sample trial - production line in Shanghai, and is accelerating the construction of a pilot line in Huzhou. Its products have obtained international certification, and it is promoting cooperation with automobile manufacturers and the implementation of diversified application scenarios [12]
建信期货铜期货日报-20250828
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 02:24
Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The report maintains the judgment that copper prices are prone to rise and difficult to fall, and the support level is raised to 78,500 yuan [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper market fluctuated, with the closing price remaining unchanged at 79,190 yuan compared to the previous day. The 09 - 10 spread on the disk turned positive to 10. The spot price dropped 40 to 79,545 yuan, and the spot premium rose 40 to 170 yuan. The scarcity of high - quality copper drove up the premium. The spot import profit was 160 yuan, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.09. The LME 0 - 3 contango structure widened to 85. The demand for Yangshan copper was average, and the warehouse receipts and bills of lading remained flat. The current tight domestic spot situation persists. The opening of the import window attracted the transfer of LME inventory to the domestic market. The LME inventory increased by 1,100 tons to 156,100 tons compared to the previous day. The inventory accumulation in the LME in August was lower than expected. With the arrival of the domestic peak season in September, the low inventory strongly supports copper prices [10]. 2. Industry News - Zijin Mining's 2025 semi - annual report disclosed on the evening of August 26 showed that the company's mineral copper production reached 570,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%; mineral gold production was 41 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16%; mineral silver was 224 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%; mineral zinc (lead) was 200,000 tons, equivalent lithium carbonate was 7,315 tons; iron concentrate was 1.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 58.0%; mine - produced molybdenum was 5,879 tons, tungsten was 2,137 tons, and cobalt was 30 tons [11]. - On August 26, foreign media reported that despite the encouragement of Trump administration officials, Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd., the operating company behind the controversial Pebble copper mine in Alaska, had not submitted a revised proposal to remove the obstacles to the stalled copper - gold project. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) stated in an online status update on Monday that Northern Dynasty Minerals had not advanced "updated submission materials" for its proposed Pebble mine project, adding that "the agency has not received any relevant documents at present." This latest news came after the US Department of Justice decided last month to effectively uphold the veto of the project, shattering the hope of the Trump administration to remove regulatory obstacles [11]. - Industry online data showed that in July 2025, China's household air - conditioner production was 1.6115 million units, unchanged year - on - year; sales were 1.6437 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The domestic and export markets of household air - conditioners presented a distinct differentiation pattern. The domestic sales scale was 1.0583 million units, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%; the export scale was 0.5854 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 15.5% [11][12]
建信期货PTA日报-20250828
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 01:45
PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 08 月 28 日 行业 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 数据来源:Wind, ...
建信期货MEG日报-20250828
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 01:34
行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 08 月 28 日 料油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 业硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 期货从业资格号:F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 ...