General Information - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] - Report Type: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] Report Highlights Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the bond market lacks a clear direction due to stable fundamentals, policy, and capital conditions, along with elevated market risk appetite. Long - term, there may be an increase in monetary easing in October, but there's a risk of a bond market trend reversal if anti - involution effectively boosts domestic demand and inflation [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The marginal improvement in inter - bank liquidity continued, but the sharp rise in A - shares, especially the strength of cyclical stocks, significantly suppressed the bond market, and the decline of treasury bond futures widened in the afternoon [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities increased. Short - term yields changed slightly, while long - term yields rose by about 1 - 2bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.689%, up 1.2bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The funding situation was stable. There were 462.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 247.7 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates declined, and medium - and long - term funding remained stable [10] 2. Industry News - **LPR**: The LPR quotes in July remained stable, with the 1 - year LPR at 3% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5% [13] - **Sino - EU Relations**: European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen will visit China on July 24 [13] - **Central Bank Policy**: The central bank solicited public opinions on canceling the regulation on freezing bond repurchase collateral, mainly to enhance bond liquidity and optimize the central bank's monetary policy operation mechanism [13] - **Business and Trade**: The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H20 chips to China and Canada's tightened steel import restrictions [13] - **Infrastructure Project**: The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was established [14] - **G20 Meeting**: At the third G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting, China stated that it would implement a more proactive fiscal policy and expand high - level opening - up in the second half of the year [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Data on trading, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest of various treasury bond futures contracts on July 22 were presented, as well as information on spreads between different contracts and their trends [6] - **Money Market**: Data on SHIBOR, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rates, and other money market indicators were covered [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves was provided [35]

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The macro atmosphere remains strongly positive, with the black series commodities and ferrosilicon reaching their daily limit on the 22nd. Driven by the optimistic sentiment, the aluminum industry chain continues to be strong. Alumina prices have risen significantly by over 6%, reaching a new high for the year, while Shanghai aluminum has shown relatively stable performance. Currently in the traditional off-season, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side is still affected by the off-season. The overall fundamentals of aluminum have not changed significantly, and the current strength is mainly supported by policy expectations, following the general upward trend of the sector. The upside space is temporarily limited, and in the short term, it is expected to remain strong, with attention paid to the resistance level near the previous high [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Macro atmosphere drives the aluminum industry chain to remain strong. Alumina prices have risen significantly, while Shanghai aluminum has shown relatively stable performance. The 2509 contract of Shanghai aluminum has risen by 0.75% to 20,900 yuan/ton, and the total open interest of the index has increased by 19,572 to 694,390 lots. The premium between the 08 and 09 contracts has narrowed by 5 to 25, and the AD-AL negative spread is reported at -490. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side is still affected by the off-season. The start-up rate of the aluminum processing sector remains low, and the high absolute price of aluminum is expected to have a negative impact on terminal consumption. The average profit of aluminum smelting remains at a high level of over 4,200 yuan/ton. Overall, the fundamentals of aluminum have not changed significantly, and the current strength is mainly supported by policy expectations, following the general upward trend of the sector. The upside space is temporarily limited, and in the short term, it is expected to remain strong, with attention paid to the resistance level near the previous high [8] 2. Industry News - China's primary aluminum production in June 2025 was 3.81 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Due to the start of the second-phase replacement of electrolytic aluminum from Shandong to Yunnan, the production of the original plant was reduced, resulting in a slight month-on-month decrease in production. In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, and the second-phase replacement project in Yunnan has been put into operation, leading to a recovery in the industry's start-up rate [9][10] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has emphasized the importance of promoting the stable, healthy, and high-quality development of the real estate market. Local governments are required to take responsibility, make full use of their autonomy in real estate regulation policies, and implement targeted measures to stabilize the market [10] - Alcoa has announced that the restart of its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain has been postponed to mid-2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million. The restart was originally in progress but was delayed due to a nationwide power outage in Spain in April. After reviewing the government's report on the power outage and receiving commitments on grid reliability and energy competitiveness, the joint venture has decided to resume the restart project [10]

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report - Report Date: July 23, 2025 - Report Industry: Energy - Chemical (Crude Oil) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - In the peak season, the single - week crude oil consumption is slightly lower than expected, but there are no new negatives in the market, so the market is expected to have an upward potential. It is necessary to continue tracking consumption and Saudi Arabia's supply changes [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $66.04/barrel, closing at $65.78/barrel, with a high of $66.44/barrel, a low of $65.21/barrel, a decline of 0.41%, and a trading volume of 22.7 million hands. Brent's opening price was $69.21/barrel, closing at $69.09/barrel, with a high of $69.63/barrel, a low of $68.4/barrel, a decline of 0.27%, and a trading volume of 28.12 million hands. SC's opening price was 511 yuan/barrel, closing at 504.3 yuan/barrel, with a high of 512.1 yuan/barrel, a low of 501.6 yuan/barrel, a decline of 2.13%, and a trading volume of 14.38 million hands [6] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The three major institutions' July reports show little adjustment on the demand side. On the supply side, except for Kazakhstan, seven other countries have completed compensatory production cuts according to OPEC. There are differences among the three institutions regarding Saudi Arabia's crude oil production this month. IEA expects Saudi Arabia's production to reach 9.8 million barrels per day, while OPEC and EIA estimate it to be around 9.3 million barrels per day. High - frequency data shows that US refined oil consumption is slightly lower than expected, and the apparent demand for gasoline and diesel has declined [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Continue to track consumption and Saudi Arabia's supply changes [7] 3.2. Industry News - Israel's Chief of Staff stated that actions against Iran are not over - Iran's Foreign Minister said Iran is willing to talk with the US but will not have direct talks for now - The UK government imposed 137 new sanctions on Russia's key energy and oil industries, targeting 135 oil tankers that are part of a fleet that has illegally transported $24 billion worth of goods since early 2024 [10] 3.3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI fund positions, Brent fund net positions, WTI and Oman spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory [11][14][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Type: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 09 contract was 5,328 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,368 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.75%. [7] - **Spot Market**: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market was 5,220 - 6,700 yuan/ton. The low - end price remained stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5,950 yuan/ton. [7] - **International Quotes**: Chile's Arauco announced its July quotes. The Yinxing had no new offers as the previous deals were completed. The net price of Uruguay's hardwood pulp, New Star, was $500/ton. [7] - **Production and Shipment**: In May, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries was 1.69 million tons, up 4.4% month - on - month and down 8.2% year - on - year. [7] - **Inventory and Consumption**: In June, the European wood pulp inventory increased by 2.4% month - on - month and 6.6% year - on - year; consumption decreased by 9.9% month - on - month and 10.6% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in June were 3.03 million tons, up 0.4% month - on - month and 16.1% year - on - year. As of July 17, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 1.08% month - on - month, turning from an increase to a decrease. [7] - **Market Trend**: Affected by the off - season atmosphere, the prices of downstream paper products were weak. With limited changes in fundamentals, the pulp market fluctuated and rose slightly in the short term, driven by the commodity market atmosphere. [7] 3. Industry News - On July 22, the annual 150,000 - ton special paper project of Sichuan Hefeng Paper of Taisheng Group was successfully put into operation. The project uses bamboo pulp as the main raw material, focusing on producing 40 - 100 - gram low - gram - weight food packaging paper. After the two paper machines in Sichuan reach full production, they are expected to have a significant impact on the special paper market in the southwest region, with some production capacity sold to the central and eastern coastal areas. [8] 4. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the total warehouse receipts, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, and prices and spreads of various paper products [25][27][29]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2) Report's Core View - The main contract price of polysilicon closed at the daily limit. The PS2509 closed at 49,105 yuan/ton, with a gain of 7.54%. The trading volume was 75.70 lots, and the open interest was 19.20 lots, with a net increase of 20,122 lots. Policy stimulus led to the upward movement of multiple commodities, and both polysilicon and industrial silicon closed at the daily limit. The futures price has exceeded the spot price range and the full - cost line of most plants. The fundamentals are not the main driving factor currently, and continuous policies will stimulate the bullish sentiment in the market to the extreme. The market is expected to remain bullish with increasing positions and trading volume, and one should not try to predict the top [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog a. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main contract price of polysilicon closed at the daily limit. The PS2509 closed at 49,105 yuan/ton, up 7.54%. The trading volume was 75.70 lots, and the open interest was 19.20 lots, with a net increase of 20,122 lots [4]. - Future Outlook: Policy stimulus caused multiple commodities to rise in resonance. Polysilicon and industrial silicon both closed at the daily limit. The futures price has exceeded the spot price range and the full - cost line of most plants. The fundamentals are not the main driving factor. Continuous policies will fully stimulate the bullish sentiment in the market to the extreme. The market is expected to remain bullish with increasing positions and trading volume, and one should not try to predict the top [4]. b. Market News - As of July 22, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,780 lots, with no increase from the previous trading day [5].

Report Information - Report Type: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoint - The futures market opened higher and fluctuated weakly, dampening market trading sentiment. With some ex - factory prices adjusted, traders quoted prices with narrow fluctuations. Downstream buyers purchased according to orders, and the willingness to replenish inventory was average. The current downstream agricultural film production is at the lowest level of the year, and there are no obvious signs of improvement in the production of pipes and plastic weaving. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's push to adjust the structure and optimize the supply of key petrochemical industries has limited substantial impact on the polypropylene and plastic industries, and short - term capacity adjustment is difficult. Currently, the commodity sentiment is boosted by bulls, and polyolefins continue to oscillate strongly following the sector [6]. Market Quotes Futures Market | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Increase (yuan/ton) | Increase Rate (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7325 | 7416 | 7420 | 7313 | 107 | 1.46 | 139453 | 5019 | | Plastic 2605 | 7318 | 7420 | 7425 | 7312 | 135 | 1.85 | 5593 | 1714 | | Plastic 2509 | 7287 | 7368 | 7373 | 7264 | 92 | 1.26 | 394148 | - 13406 | | PP2601 | 7092 | 7170 | 7180 | 7077 | 98 | 1.39 | 148412 | 17094 | | PP2605 | 7078 | 7159 | 7165 | 7073 | 96 | 1.36 | 9057 | 1218 | | PP2509 | 7091 | 7168 | 7173 | 7076 | 93 | 1.31 | 382806 | - 9868 | [5] Spot Market - On July 22, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 790,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (3.66%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 765,000 tons [9]. - PE market prices showed mixed trends. The price of linear LLDPE in North China was 7140 - 7400 yuan/ton, in East China was 7180 - 7580 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7280 - 7550 yuan/ton [9]. - The price of the Shandong propylene market remained stable. As of 12:00, the reference price was 6350 - 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. With limited guidance from the news, enterprise quotations were mainly stable, and individual prices were slightly lowered [9]. - The PP market showed a warm adjustment, with some prices rising by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The actual demand for raw materials from downstream factories was difficult to increase, and they were cautious when entering the market to purchase. Actual transactions focused on negotiation. In the morning, the mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6970 - 7130 yuan/ton, in East China was 7050 - 7170 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7010 - 7200 yuan/ton [9].

请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 07 月 23 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油 ...

行业 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 23 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The report focuses on the cotton industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the international market, as of the week ending July 20th, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 57%, showing an upward trend, while the boll-setting rate was 33%, with a slower growth progress. The external market has limited driving force and maintains a range-bound oscillation. In the domestic market, the sown area this year has increased year-on-year, and there is still an expectation of a bumper harvest. The recent increase in cotton prices has led to an increase in the sales of old cotton from the 2023/24 season and a slight decrease in the basis price of new cotton from the 2024/25 season. The supply side exerts short-term pressure on cotton prices. Although yarn prices have gradually followed the increase in cotton prices, the finished yarn inventory has not continued to accumulate due to the increased production restrictions of textile enterprises in inland areas. The cotton import volume in June remained at a low level, and the contradiction of tight commercial cotton inventory in the 2024/25 season still exists. In the short term, the main contract oscillates and adjusts, the positions shift to the far-month contracts, and the 9-1 spread converges [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillates and adjusts. The latest 328-grade cotton price index is 15,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The prices of different grades and regions of cotton vary, with the basis and fixed-price quotations showing different characteristics. The price of pure cotton yarn has increased, but the downstream demand is difficult to pick up significantly. Textile enterprises are still suffering large losses, and the operating rate has continued to decline due to high temperatures in inland areas. The market for pure cotton grey cloth has few inquiries, and most transactions are small and urgent orders [7] - **International Market**: As of the week ending July 20th, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 57%, up from 54% the previous week and 53% in the same period last year; the boll-setting rate was 33%, up from 23% the previous week, lower than 40% in the same period last year and in line with the five-year average. The growth progress is slow but the good-to-excellent rate is improving. The external market has limited driving force and maintains a range-bound oscillation [8] 3.2 Industry News - As of the week ending July 20th, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 57%, the boll-setting rate was 33%, and the budding rate was 71%. As of July 18th, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.4575 million tons, a decrease of 148,800 tons or 5.71% from the previous week [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, 9-1 spread, commercial and industrial cotton inventories, and the total number of warehouse receipts, among others [17][18][19]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market continues to be in a situation of weak supply and demand. Due to the continuous decline of oil prices, which is weaker than expected, the previous long positions in asphalt should be closed for the time being and wait and see [7]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: The opening, closing, highest, and lowest prices of BU2509 and BU2510 contracts are provided, with their respective price changes and trading volumes. Both contracts showed a downward trend [6]. - Spot Market: The asphalt spot prices in North China, Shandong, and South China markets have decreased, while those in other regions remained stable. The decline in crude oil prices and asphalt futures has a negative impact on the spot market sentiment [6]. - Supply: Zhenhai Refining and Jiangsu Xinhai plan to resume asphalt production briefly, but Jinling Petrochemical may stop production temporarily, and Shengxing Petrochemical in Shandong has no clear plan to resume asphalt production after switching to residue production this week. The average operating load rate of asphalt plants is expected to continue to decline [6]. - Demand: Road construction in most parts of China is affected by the weather, and the demand for asphalt is weak. The capital situation of road projects is difficult to improve in the short - term, and the willingness of traders to advance funds is low, so the demand for asphalt is still unstable [6]. 2. Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 3560 - 3600 yuan/ton. Maoming Petrochemical lowered its asphalt transportation price, and the typhoon weather led to weak demand and cautious market sentiment [8]. - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 3630 - 4070 yuan/ton. The decline of international oil prices and asphalt futures, along with heavy rainfall, affected the terminal demand. Although refinery quotes were stable, some brand traders continued to lower their quotes [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures on asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][11][18][19]