行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 24 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ | 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | --- | | | 表1：国债期货7月23日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 119.520 | 118.900 | 119.270 | 119.35 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of polysilicon hit the daily limit during the session and then opened the limit and tumbled. The closing price of PS2509 was 50,080 yuan/ton, with a gain of 5.33%. The trading volume was 1,246,241 lots, and the open interest was 165,641 lots, a net decrease of 26,538 lots [4]. - The fundamental factors are not the main driving logic at present. After the end of the rush - installation in June, the domestic demand lacks follow - up, and the monthly terminal demand will drop to around 45GW. The resumption of production by silicon material enterprises will increase the supply to 10 - 110,000 tons, which can roughly meet the downstream demand of 48 - 50GW, and the supply - demand is barely balanced [4]. - The current market is mainly driven by policy > funds > fundamentals. After the commodity index fills the gap, there is resistance to the subsequent rally. If the polysilicon fails to break through the previous high in the short - term, it is likely to reach a phased peak. However, due to policy support and the fact that the spot price should not be lower than the full cost, the downward space is also limited. It is expected to be in a cautious and strong high - level oscillation during the day [4]. 3) Summaries According to Related Catalogs a. Market Performance and Outlook - Market performance: The polysilicon main contract showed volatile performance, hitting the daily limit and then falling. PS2509 had specific closing price, trading volume, and open - interest data [4]. - Outlook: The fundamental factors are not the main driver. There is a change in supply - demand after the end of the rush - installation. The current market is mainly affected by policy and funds, and the short - term trend has certain characteristics and limitations [4]. b. Market News - On July 23, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,780 lots, with no increase compared to the previous trading day [5]. - On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials were to be introduced, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize the supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [5]. - In June 2025, China's industrial silicon exports reached 68,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%, hitting a 18 - month high. Southeast Asia was the main export destination, with Thailand and Malaysia as the main incremental markets for local photovoltaic module production [5]. - As of the end of June, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity from January to June was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%, but the domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5].

行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 24 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌 | 总量 | 增减 | | TA2509 | 4784 | 12 | 1171328 | -19480 | | TA2601 | 4780 | 16 | 289 | -19480 | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 23日PTA主力期货 TA2509收盘价4784元/吨，上涨 12元/吨，涨幅 0.25%， 结算价 4808 ...

行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 24 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures market rose due to the overnight announcement of Jiangte Motor's production line maintenance and the fermentation of the anti-involution logic. The spot market also slightly followed the increase. The downstream's willingness to accept the price was low, but the procurement intention improved marginally. The rising price of lithium carbonate drove the profit repair of the upstream resource end and salt factories, but the price performance was suppressed by the arbitrage space. However, under the current sentiment, lithium carbonate is expected to follow the upward trend [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures opened higher. The main contract reached a maximum of 74,480 and closed at 72,880. The total position increased by 40,000 hands to 718,000 hands. The spot price of electric carbon rose by 1,100 to 69,100. The downstream's acceptance of the price was low, but the procurement intention improved. The price of Australian ore rose by 10 US dollars/ton to 767.5 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica rose by 45 to 1,590 yuan/ton. The production profit of salt factories using purchased lithium spodumene expanded to 833 yuan/ton, and the production loss of salt factories using purchased lithium mica narrowed to 5,969 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Industry News - Argentina's CAMMESA's first-round battery energy storage system tender received 27 projects from 15 companies, totaling 1.3 GW of bidding plans, far exceeding the 500 MW tender capacity. The winning results are expected to be announced in August 2025, and the contracts will be signed in September [14]. - On the morning of July 17, Jiangsu Weili Energy Technology Co., Ltd. launched a project with a total investment of 500 million yuan to process 30,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate battery cathode materials per year. The first phase is expected to be put into production by the end of 2025, with an annual revenue of 550 million yuan and more than 200 new jobs [15].

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The macro - optimistic atmosphere supports the continued strength of Shanghai nickel. On the 22nd, Shanghai nickel 2509 closed up 1.52% at 123,720 yuan/ton, and the total open interest of the index increased by 12,011 to 176,532 lots. However, the nickel surplus pattern has not reversed, and price pressure still exists. The nickel fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the overall performance of each industrial link continues to weaken. Currently, the macro - sentiment dominates the market, and the nickel price is temporarily strong, but the rebound space should be viewed with caution [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Macro - optimism supports Shanghai nickel's strength, with the 2509 contract rising 1.52% to 123,720 yuan/ton and the index's total open interest increasing by 12,011 to 176,532 lots [8]. - The nickel surplus situation remains, and prices face pressure. As the supplementary quotas of Indonesia's RKAB are gradually approved, nickel ore supply will be abundant, and premiums and ore prices may decline [8]. - Nickel - iron prices rebounded slightly at a low level, but most Indonesian smelters are still at a loss at this price. After the conversion to high - grade nickel matte, the reduction is limited, and the support for prices is also limited. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season with high inventories, making it difficult to support the raw material end. The weak atmosphere of nickel - iron and stainless steel drags down the nickel ore end [8]. - The price of nickel sulfate continued to rise to 27,250. It is expected to stop falling temporarily under the support of low inventories of nickel salt plants and the rigid restocking demand of precursors [8]. 3.2 Industry News - In 2025, Indonesia's actual nickel ore production was only 120 million tons, while the approved RKAB quota from January to June was 364.1 million tons, about three times the actual production. The low utilization rate of RKAB quotas was mainly due to the rainy season in major mining areas such as Sulawesi. In the first half of the year, Indonesia still imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines [9]. - Since January 2025, the cost pressure on Indonesia's nickel industry has continued to rise due to policies such as the Domestic Sales Obligation (DMO), the increase in the biodiesel blending ratio from B40 to B50, new export fees, and the Global Minimum Tax (GMT). The APNI is formulating ESG regulations in line with IRMA standards and conducting a gap analysis of 57 local regulations to enhance the international reputation of Indonesia's nickel industry [11]. - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. This project is an important step towards the goal of deploying 10,000 MWh of battery energy storage capacity within a year [11]. - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contacts with almost no silver (Ag). The silver consumption is less than 0.5 mg/W, far lower than that of traditional silver - contact cells, while achieving almost the same efficiency. This innovation is expected to significantly reduce production costs [11]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Scotland. This is the tenth approved energy storage project in the past 17 months, with the total approved energy storage capacity exceeding 1.6 GW [11]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The peak of the peak season for spot freight rates is about to appear. The SCFIS this week has dropped by about 21 points to around 2400 points compared with last week. Online quotes are relatively stable. After the continuous repair of the 08 contract, the current discount space is relatively limited. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities in October, a traditional off - season, and the positive spread arbitrage opportunities between 08 - 10 contracts [8] Industry News - From July 14 to July 18, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, with most route market freight rates falling, dragging down the composite index. The Shanghai Export Container Composite Freight Index on July 18 was 1646.90 points, a 5.0% drop from the previous period [9] - In the first half of 2025, China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 2.9% year - on - year, with exports increasing by 7.2% year - on - year, which will support the Chinese export container shipping market in the long term [9] - The eurozone's July ZEW economic sentiment index rose to 36.1, and Germany's July ZEW economic sentiment index reached 52.7, a new high since February 2022, indicating that the European economy continues to recover [9] - Trump announced a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU starting from August 1, and the EU drafted a tariff list for US services in response, so Sino - European trade still faces great uncertainty [9] - On July 18, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was 2079 US dollars/TEU, a 1.0% drop from the previous period; the market freight rate to Mediterranean basic ports was 2528 US dollars/TEU, a 5.2% drop from the previous period [9][10] - In June, the US CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year, the highest in four months. The market freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports on July 18 were 2142 US dollars/FEU and 3612 US dollars/FEU respectively, down 2.4% and 13.4% from the previous period [10] - Due to the continuous blockade of the Red Sea by the Yemeni Houthi rebels, Eilat Port in Israel has stopped all operations since July 20, which may weaken Israel's shipping logistics capacity in the Red Sea and trigger potential security concerns [10] - Trump said the US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India. The US has also reached agreements with Indonesia and notified some Southeast Asian countries of new tariff rates [10] - The leader of the Yemeni Houthi rebels said that as long as Israel continues to invade and blockade Gaza, the Houthi rebels will continue to ban ships related to Israel from passing through the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea [10] Data Overview Container Shipping Spot Prices - On July 21, 2025, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 2400.5 points, a 0.9% drop from July 14; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1301.81 points, a 2.8% increase from July 14 [12] Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on July 22 shows that different contracts have different price changes, trading volumes, open interests and position changes. For example, the EC2508 contract closed at 2249.7 points, down 2.20% [6] Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping European line futures contract trends, global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - European basic port freight rates [13][17][22]

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The political risks in the US have pushed down the US dollar index and boosted the prices of gold and silver. Gold's safe - haven demand is strongly supported, and its volatility has increased while the medium - term upward trend remains intact. The report suggests investors maintain a bullish mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - The long - term bull market of gold is supported by the hedging and reserve diversification needs from the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system, and the medium - term bull market is supported by Trump's reforms, economic weakness, and central bank rate - cut expectations. However, the high price and P/E ratio lead to increased volatility, and the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's rate - cut timing in the third quarter should be monitored [5]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - Trump's government's pressure on Fed Chair Powell and a congressman's criminal charge against Powell have pushed down the US dollar index and caused London gold to rebound to $3390 per ounce. The anti - involution expectation has driven up the price of silver with strong industrial attributes. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted, and it is expected to fluctuate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce before the next upward breakthrough. Investors are advised to hold a bullish view and trade with medium - to - low positions. This week, attention should be paid to the preliminary PMI values in July in Europe and the US and the ECB's interest - rate meeting [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have weakened gold's hedging and allocation needs, Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks still support the price. The gold - silver ratio has returned to the level before April. The report expects London gold to continue to fluctuate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish view, and bearish - minded traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The EU is exploring broader counter - measures against the US as the prospect of a trade agreement with Washington fades. Some EU countries are evaluating the use of a comprehensive anti - coercion mechanism [17]. - The US Treasury Secretary suggests a review of the Fed, and the Fed responds to the White House's criticism of the renovation cost of its headquarters [17]. - Guangdong and Anhui in China will regulate the new - energy vehicle industry to promote healthy competition [17].

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report - Date: July 23, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current fundamentals of copper are supportive, with significant growth in Chinese copper demand and favorable domestic and international macro - environments. Short - term, copper prices are expected to continue rising [11]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper closed with a doji star, and the total open interest decreased by 1,386 lots. The sentiment for going long on industrial products was high during the day, but copper prices were relatively flat, with weak capital entry willingness. The futures market maintained a structure where the near - month contracts were in contango and the far - month contracts were in back. The spot premium continued to rise to 240, and the LME 0 - 3 contango widened to $67/ton. The short - term spot market showed a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. In June 2025, China's copper product output was 2.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, hitting a multi - year high for the same period [11]. 3.2 Industry News - In June, the export volume of refined copper rods (>6mm) continued to reach a new high, with stable growth in the Southeast Asian market. The total export volume of refined copper rods with a maximum cross - section >6mm was 9,827.53 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.4% and a year - on - year increase of 50.36%. The export volume of refined copper rods with a maximum cross - section >6mm through feed - processing trade in June 2025 was 7,183.14 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.22% and a year - on - year increase of 33.75 times [12]. - Russia's Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) currently expects its copper production this year to be between 343,000 - 355,000 tons, lower than the previous estimate of 353,000 - 373,000 tons. The company's nickel production in the second quarter was 45,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%, and palladium production was 658,000 ounces, a year - on - year decrease of 11% [12]. - Anglo Asian Mining plc announced that its Demirli copper mine in the Karabakh Economic Region of Azerbaijan has started trial production, and the output is expected to increase by the end of this year. The company expects its copper concentrate output in 2025 to be 4,000 tons, and after 2026, the annual output of the Demirli copper mine will increase to 15,000 tons. The mining life of the mine depends on further geopolitical developments and the mineral resource model [12].

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: - For the 2508 contract of Shanghai Zinc, the opening price was 22,430 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,885 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,900 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,420 yuan/ton, the change was 590 yuan, the increase rate was 2.65%, the trading volume was 46,914, and the change in trading volume was -11,190. - For the 2509 contract, the opening price was 22,420 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,925 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,945 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,415 yuan/ton, the change was 625 yuan, the increase rate was 2.80%, the trading volume was 133,314, and the change in trading volume was 17,346. - For the 2510 contract, the opening price was 22,375 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,915 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,935 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,375 yuan/ton, the change was 640 yuan, the increase rate was 2.87%, the trading volume was 38,266, and the change in trading volume was 4,110 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: In the context of anti - involution, the rebound strength of the black series exceeded expectations. Although the fundamentals of Shanghai Zinc were poor, it showed certain resistance to decline due to the boost of the black series. On Friday afternoon, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that it would promote key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials to adjust their structures and optimize supply, which boosted the commodity market. Shanghai Zinc fluctuated at a high level during the day. The main 2509 contract closed at 22,945 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan, an increase of 0.70%, with increased volume and open interest. The fundamentals and the macro situation were in conflict. In August, the domestic zinc ore processing fee remained stable, the imported ore processing fee continued to rise, the port inventory of zinc concentrates increased significantly, and downstream demand was in the off - season, with limited acceptance of high prices on the disk. Spot prices in three regions were lowered, and the overall trading was light. It is expected to run strongly in the short term driven by commodity sentiment, but there is insufficient support for the upward movement of the fundamentals, so be cautious about chasing high prices [7]. Group 3: Industry News - **July 22, 2025**: - The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,755 - 22,910 yuan/ton, Shuangyan zinc was traded between 22,835 - 23,010 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc was traded between 22,685 - 22,840 yuan/ton. - In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic zinc was quoted at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract, Honglu - v was at par with the 2508 contract, Huize was at a premium of 60 - 80 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract, and the high - end brand Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 80 - 120 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract [8]. - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22,755 - 22,890 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo were quoted at a discount of 5 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract and a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. In the first time period, Yongchang was quoted at par with the 2508 contract, Honglu - v was at par with the 2508 contract, and Huize zinc ingots were at a premium of 80 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract. In the second time period, traders' quotes remained the same as the previous period [8]. - **Tianjin Market**: The 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded between 22,700 - 22,890 yuan/ton, Zijin was traded between 22,740 - 22,910 yuan/ton, 1 zinc ingots were traded around 22,630 - 22,780 yuan/ton, and Huludao was quoted at 23,630 yuan/ton. The ordinary 0 zinc was quoted at a discount of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract, Zijin was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan to a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract, and Tianjin was at a discount of about 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market [8][9]. - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream 0 zinc was traded between 22,700 - 22,880 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract and a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened [9].