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建信期货工业硅日报-20250822
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:37
Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views - Industrial silicon futures prices mainly fluctuated. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,635 yuan/ton, up 3.66%, with a trading volume of 659,075 lots and an open interest of 283,578 lots, a net increase of 3,710 lots [4]. - Industrial silicon spot prices were stable. The price of 553-grade in Sichuan was 8,750 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 8,400 yuan/ton; the price of 421-grade in Inner Mongolia was 9,600 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,300 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,650 yuan/ton [4]. - Multiple-production area device production pushed the weekly output to 84,700 tons, equivalent to a monthly output of over 370,000 tons. On the demand side, the polysilicon production schedule in August will increase to 125,000 tons, and the organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and export parts are expected to remain stable, with a monthly demand of 360,000 tons. Supply and demand both increased, maintaining a loose balance (excluding 97-grade silicon and recycled silicon), and the industry has no inventory reduction drive. The anti-involution policy sets the bottom tone, but there is no implemented policy drive in the industrial silicon industry, so the spot price is weakly stable and mainly fluctuates [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: Industrial silicon futures prices mainly fluctuated. The Si2511 contract had specific closing price, trading volume, and open interest changes [4]. - Spot Price: Industrial silicon spot prices were stable with different prices in various regions [4]. - Future Outlook: Supply and demand both increased, maintaining a loose balance, and the spot price was weakly stable and mainly fluctuated [4]. 2. Market News - On August 21, the futures warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 51,166 lots, a net increase of 553 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - The domestic DMC market price declined, with the mainstream transaction range around 10,700 - 11,200 yuan/ton for net water acceptance and delivery, and the average price down 150 yuan/ton from the previous working day [5]. - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative industrial silicon export volume was 340,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. In June, the single-month export volume was 68,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 23% and a year-on-year increase of 12% [5].
建信期货纸浆日报-20250822
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:37
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The paper pulp market is under pressure as it has not emerged from the off - season of demand, and the processing profit of paper mills has not improved significantly. Although there are some changes in supply and demand data, the overall market situation remains challenging [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Contracts**: The previous settlement price of the 01 contract of pulp futures was 5384 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5392 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.15%. The SP2509 contract decreased by 0.12%, while the SP2605 contract rose by 0.11% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5100 - 6700 yuan/ton, with the low - end price rising by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing was 5800 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: In June, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with softwood pulp decreasing by 2.4% and hardwood pulp increasing by 10.1%. In July 2025, the European wood pulp inventory was 683,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The European wood pulp consumption was 814,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. China's pulp imports in July were 2.877 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. As of August 21, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 1.59% month - on - month [8]. 3.2. Industry News Jiulong Paper expects its annual profit for the period ending June 30, 2025, to be between 2.1 billion and 2.3 billion yuan, a growth of 165% - 190% compared to last year's 794 million yuan. The profit growth is mainly due to increased sales volume and a significant decrease in raw material costs compared to product prices. The expected profit attributable to equity holders is between 1.7 billion and 1.9 billion yuan, an increase of 126% - 153% compared to last year's 751 million yuan. The final performance announcement is expected to be released before the end of September 2025 [9]. 3.3. Data Overview The content also includes multiple data charts such as import softwood pulp spot prices, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, and inventory data from different regions, but specific data summaries are not provided in the text [15][23][25][29].
建信期货原油日报-20250822
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:36
Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - EIA data shows that as of the week ending on the 15th, US crude oil and gasoline inventories declined more than expected, causing oil prices to rebound from the bottom [6] - The US is arranging a summit among the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine. Although the meeting between the US and Russian leaders has not achieved substantial progress, Trump said the talks were "very smooth" after the meeting, and the US will not impose further sanctions on Russia for the time being, improving bilateral relations [6] - Fundamentally, as of the week ending on the 8th, US gasoline consumption rebounded. After five consecutive weeks of lower consumption than in 2024, the growth rate barely turned positive. Consumption was still weak despite lower gasoline prices, and this year's peak travel season consumption in the US was lower than expected. The actual performance of refined oil consumption is not optimistic. The peak travel season is coming to an end, and demand support is limited [7] - Oil prices are bottoming out in the short term. Long positions should be flexibly stopped for profit, and prices may decline again under inventory pressure in the medium term [7] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI's opening price was $65.59, closing at $66.53, with a high of $66.54, a low of $65.31, a rise of 1.88%, and a trading volume of 26.37 million lots. Brent's opening price was $61.95, closing at $62.84, with a high of $63.01, a low of $61.83, a rise of 1.73%, and a trading volume of 26.54 million lots. SC's opening price was 483.9 yuan/barrel, closing at 490.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 491.0 yuan/barrel, a low of 483.2 yuan/barrel, a rise of 1.85%, and a trading volume of 11.62 million lots [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term bottoming, flexible stop - profit for long positions; medium - term potential decline under inventory pressure [7] 2. Industry News - India will continue to buy Russian oil despite US pressure. The foreign ministers of Russia and India will discuss strengthening strategic partnership in Moscow on August 21 [8] - Iran's Foreign Minister said that Iran has not reached a mature stage for "effective" nuclear negotiations with the US [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI and Oman, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory, with corresponding data sources provided [10][12][20][23]
建信期货沥青日报-20250822
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:36
期货从业资格号:F03134307 行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 22 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(碳市场工业硅) 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报 ...
建信期货棉花日报-20250822
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:36
行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 8 月 22 日 研究员:余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 研究员:林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3055047 研究员:王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0230741 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1:行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡调整。现货方面,最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15240 元/吨,较上一 交易日跌 3 元/吨。2024/ ...
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250822
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Futures prices of plastics and PP are oscillating at high levels, boosting market sentiment. Spot prices are stronger than the previous day, and downstream buyers are purchasing on - demand. - The supply - side pressure of polyolefins is difficult to completely eliminate in the short term. The upstream device operating rate continues to increase. Although the PP maintenance loss is still high, the impact of maintenance is decreasing, and the new capacity expansion expectation is strengthening. The PE supply pressure is relatively neutral next week. - The operating rates of downstream industries such as agricultural film, plastic weaving, and BOPP have increased month - on - month, and some enterprises' orders have improved, but the off - peak to peak season transition in fundamentals may bring marginal improvement in supply - demand, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to demand improvement and inventory reduction support [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: The opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change percentages, open interest, and open interest changes of plastics (L2601, L2605, L2509) and PP (PP2601, PP2605, PP2509) futures contracts are presented. For example, L2601 closed at 7386 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton (1.15%), and PP2601 closed at 7048 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan (0.51%) [3]. - **Supply - side**: The upstream device operating rate continues to increase. For PP, the maintenance impact is decreasing, and there is an expectation of new capacity expansion (e.g., the 90 - million - ton/year device of Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical may be put into production). For PE, the centralized maintenance period has ended, the operating rate and output are continuously increasing, and the supply pressure is relatively neutral next week due to more planned shutdowns [4]. - **Downstream Consumption**: The operating rates of downstream industries such as agricultural film, plastic weaving, and BOPP have increased month - on - month, and some enterprises' orders have improved, but the expectation for the peak season is weaker year - on - year [4]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On August 21, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 750,000 tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons (4.46%) from the previous working day, compared with 795,000 tons in the same period last year. - **PE Market**: Most PE market prices have increased. The LLDPE prices in North China, East China, and South China are in the ranges of 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, 7260 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 7380 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market is 6450 - 6490 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Some PDH device maintenance has boosted market sentiment, downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased, and producers are more willing to hold prices. - **PP Market**: The domestic PP market is slightly warmer, with some prices increasing by 20 - 70 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of North China, East China, and South China are in the ranges of 6900 - 7030 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7020 yuan/ton, and 6870 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively [5][6]. 3.3 Data Overview - Multiple figures are presented, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [11][13][14].
建信期货多晶硅日报-20250822
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:35
多晶硅日报 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 08 月 22 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA/MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅/多晶 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 期货从业资格号:F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250822
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:32
Report Overview - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price dropped significantly in early August, and the start of the peak - season spot market was late this year. The market pressure emerged in late July, and the cold - storage egg outflow hit the market. The supply pressure is large, with a greater price correction this year compared to previous years. The peak - season price increase logic is weakening, causing the near - month contracts to decline continuously. The 09 contract has squeezed out the premium, and the futures market sentiment is extremely low. The near - month contracts may still be bearish in the long - term, and there are risks in taking long positions. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the late fourth quarter if the low egg price affects the subsequent replenishment volume [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of egg futures contracts 2509, 2510, and 2511 all declined. The 2509 contract dropped 4.19%, the 2510 contract fell 2.21%, and the 2511 contract decreased 2.60%. The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.23 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.42 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin [7]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The current supply pressure is high, and the peak - season price increase logic is weakening. The near - month contracts are under pressure, and the futures market sentiment is negative. The large - scale direction of near - month contracts may be bearish, and there are risks in taking long positions. A fundamental inflection point may occur in the late fourth quarter [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens**: As of the end of July, the national in - production laying hens' monthly inventory was about 1.356 billion, showing an upward trend, with a 1.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In July, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, less than that in June and the same period in 2024. The decrease in the replenishment volume in July was the first this year [9]. - **Hen Culling**: From the first to the third week as of August 14, the national hen culling volume showed a downward trend. As of August 14, the average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week and one day later than last month [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to the egg market, including the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in China, egg - chicken farming profit, the basis of the egg 09 contract, the price difference between egg 09 - 10, the average price of eggs in the main production areas, and the seasonal trend of egg 09 [16][13][12]
建信期货生猪日报-20250822
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:31
行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 08 月 22 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F0230741 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 生猪行情: 生猪点评:需求端,栏舍利用率处于高位,目前二次育肥积极性较淡,以观 望为主;天气炎热,终端需求较弱,屠宰企业订单一般,当前出栏进度较快,屠 宰企 ...
建信期货油脂日报-20250822
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:31
Report Information - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - With good palm oil production data from Indonesia and the upcoming harvest of North American soybeans and rapeseeds, the single - sided trend of oils may face upward pressure [8]. - In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: In the East China market, the basis price of Grade 3 rapeseed oil in August was OI2601 + 130, from September to October it was OI2601 + 200, and from August to September it was OI601 + 160 (non - GMO). The basis price of Grade 1 rapeseed oil in August was OI2601 + 180. For soybean oil, the basis price of first - grade soybean oil in the spot market was 01 + 170, from August to September it was Y2601 + 190, from October to November it was Y2601 + 240, from October to January it was Y2601 + 260, and from February to May it was Y2605 + 180. The basis price of third - grade soybean oil was 01 + 120. In the Dongguan market, the price of 24 - degree palm oil was 01 - 50 [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: With the good production data of Indonesian palm oil and the upcoming listing of North American soybeans and rapeseeds, the single - sided trend of oils may face upward pressure. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil [8]. 3.2. Industry News - **Indonesia Palm Oil**: In June, Indonesia's crude palm oil production increased by 15.8% month - on - month to 4.82 million tons. In the first half of the year, the production of palm oil, including palm kernel oil, reached 27.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. Despite the production increase, due to the continuous rise in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons. In June, Indonesia exported 3.61 million tons of palm oil, a month - on - month increase of 35.4% [8][9]. - **Malaysia Palm Oil**: From August 1 to 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.3% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 2.12% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.46% month - on - month [10]. - **Purchase Progress**: As of August 19, the cumulative purchase of the August shipment was 9.171 million tons, with a purchase progress of 100%. The cumulative purchase of the September shipment was 8.439 million tons, a weekly increase of 129,000 tons, with a purchase progress of 99.22%. The cumulative purchase of the October shipment was 5.478 million tons, a weekly increase of 1.253 million tons, with a purchase progress of 68.48%. The cumulative purchase of the November shipment was 724,000 tons, a weekly increase of 196,000 tons, with a purchase progress of 11.14%. The cumulative purchase of the December shipment was 66,000 tons, with a purchase progress of 1.47%. The cumulative purchase of the February 2026 shipment was 1.782 million tons, a weekly increase of 268,000 tons, with a purchase progress of 18.76%. The cumulative purchase of the March 2026 shipment was 5.544 million tons, a weekly increase of 462,000 tons, with a purchase progress of 46.2% [10]. 3.3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil, the spot price of East China Grade 4 soybean oil, the spot price of South China 24 - degree palm oil, the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the P1 - 5 spread, the P5 - 9 spread, the P9 - 1 spread, the US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, the US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, etc. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][12][16]