行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | ...

研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉承压调整。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15139 元/吨，较上一 交易日跌 5 元/吨。当前 2 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜继续震荡，隔夜美联储理事沃勒基于就业市场表现，主张应继续推进降息， 美元指数走弱，一度推升铜价，但美股下跌打压市场风偏，铜价仍在高位震荡。 日内现货涨 95 至 92240，现货贴水缩窄 10，进口亏损继续在千元以上，精废价差 在 4000+，国内社库较周一累库 0.13 至 16.58 万吨，短期现货无明显好转。宏观 面继续等待周五日 ...

行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 每日报告 投产；泰国铝合金车轮第三工厂在建的年产 300 万只铸旋铝合金车轮产能预 计明年投产；公司在重庆、淮安、长春、泰国等地新建的高性能铝合金新材 料项目将于今年四季度到明年陆续投产。上述新增产能建成后，将进一步完 善公司的全球产能布局，提升公司的市场竞争力。 请阅读正文后的声明 - 3 - 铝观点： 沪铝日内围绕 2.2 万一线震荡运行，2602 合约尾盘报收于 21955 小幅上涨 0.25%。基本面上，国产矿虽趋紧，但在氧化 ...

油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 ＃summary＃ 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 每日报 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - SR601 closed at 5192 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan or 0.54%, with a position of 63392 contracts, a decrease of 9827 contracts [7] - SR605 closed at 5102 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.68%, with a position of 518010 contracts, an increase of 30075 contracts [7] - US sugar 03 closed at 14.76 cents/pound, down 0.06 cents or 0.40%, with a position of 445628 contracts, a decrease of 1670 contracts [7] - US sugar 05 closed at 14.35 cents/pound, down 0.09 cents or 0.62%, with a position of 198069 contracts, an increase of 272 contracts [7] Market Analysis - New York raw sugar futures fluctuated downward, and the main March contract closed down 0.40% to 14.76 cents/pound. The weakening of the Brazilian real exchange rate has a certain inhibitory effect on sugar prices, and the sugar price has a slight decline but still remains above the 40 - day moving average, and the oscillation pattern will continue [7] - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract continued to weaken. The 05 contract closed at 5192 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan or 0.54%, with a reduction of 9827 contracts. The domestic new sugar price was lowered. The price in Nanning was 5335 yuan/ton, and in Kunming was 5230 yuan/ton. In terms of fundamentals, the number of sugar mills starting production in the south is increasing, the market lacks confidence, and the downstream purchasing willingness is low. Short - selling funds in Zhengzhou sugar continue to suppress the 05 contract, which may break through 5100 and hit the 5000 mark [8] Group 3: Industry News - From January to November 2025, China imported a cumulative 4340000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 380000 tons. In November 2025, China imported 440000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90000 tons. As of the end of November in the 25/26 sugar - making season, China imported 1190000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 120000 tons [11] - The sugarcane crushing volume in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the second half of December was 15993000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.08%; sugar production was 724000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.94%; ethanol production was 1.185 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.32%. The sugar content of sugarcane was 133.78 kg/ton, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. 35.52% of the cane juice was used for sugar production, compared with 44.64% in the same period of the previous year [11] - Brazil exported 1600790.93 tons of sugar in the first two weeks of December, with an average daily export volume of 160079.09 tons, a 19% increase compared with the average daily export volume of 134937.22 tons in December of the previous year. The total export volume in December of the previous year was 2833681.54 tons [11] - The National Federation of Cane and Sugar Industries of India (NFCSF) has called on the Indian government to immediately raise the minimum support price (MSP) of sugar. The NFCSF welcomes the government's decision to allow the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025 - 2026 sugar - making season but warns that promoting exports alone is not enough to solve the increasingly serious liquidity crisis faced by cooperative sugar mills [11] Group 4: Data Overview Futures Trading Data - The trading volume of the top 20 members in the Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 375635 lots, an increase of 31491 lots; the long - position volume was 327774 lots, an increase of 15981 lots; the short - position volume was 395899 lots, an increase of 16249 lots [23] Graphical Data - The report includes graphs such as the spot price trend, 2605 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position of the top 20 seats in the Zhengzhou sugar main contract [12][14][16]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The concerns about supply - side imports and import costs from the news have largely offset the previous price - decline pressure caused by oversupply. The market focus has shifted back to the supply - demand expectations for the first quarter of next year. Considering the impact of the cold snap in the Northern Hemisphere around the end of December, with the expected increase in coal demand and the expected decrease in supply, the prices of coking coal and coke futures have stopped falling, rebounded, and then rapidly strengthened. Although it is unlikely for the prices to rise sharply in the future, the previous contradiction of oversupply has been significantly alleviated through expected factors, which is beneficial for the overall price recovery. Investors should change their operation strategies in a timely manner [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: On December 18, the main contracts 2605 of coking coal and coke futures strengthened significantly with large increases, recovering all or most of the decline since December 8. The J2605 contract closed at 1743 yuan/ton, up 4.75%, with a trading volume of 18,789 lots and an open interest of 25,313 lots. The JM2605 contract closed at 1126.5 yuan/ton, up 6.07%, with a trading volume of 1,700,451 lots and an open interest of 501,331 lots [5]. - **Spot Market**: On December 18, the daily KDJ indicators of the 2605 contracts of coking coal and coke showed a divergent and obvious upward trend, and the daily MACD indicators of both contracts had golden crosses. The ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1570 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur primary coking coal in various regions also remained unchanged [8]. 3.2 Future Outlook - **News**: Starting from January 1, 2026, Indonesia will impose an export tariff on coal, but the specific tariff rate is unknown, with a previous indication of 1% - 5%. China imported about 2.4 billion tons of coal from Indonesia last year, accounting for about 44% of its total coal imports. There is an unconfirmed report that a large coal - using group will suspend the purchase of imported coal [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: On December 12, the second round of spot price cuts for coking coal was implemented. Independent coking enterprises have been profitable for four consecutive weeks, and the coke production of independent coking enterprises has increased for two consecutive weeks, but the growth rate has narrowed. Although the ports have been destocking coke for six consecutive weeks, the coke inventories of independent coking enterprises and steel mills have recently stabilized and increased. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly recently, and the 10 - day moving average of the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port reached 167,000 tons on December 6, an increase of 9.5% compared to the average since late November. The decline in the coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has narrowed, and the steel mills' coking coal inventory has increased [10]. 3.3 Industry News - **Government Revenue**: From January to November, the national government - funded budget revenue was 402.74 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. The central government - funded budget revenue was 39.38 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, while the local government - funded budget revenue was 363.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%, with the state - owned land use right transfer income decreasing by 10.7% year - on - year [12]. - **Coal Production**: In November 2025, the national raw coal output was 426.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month increase of 4.93%. From January to November, the cumulative national raw coal output was 4.40165 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [12]. - **Corporate News**: Orchid Science and Technology obtained a coal exploration license for the Sitou Block in Yangcheng County; Anyang Iron and Steel sold its equity in two subsidiaries; Wanneng Power indirectly holds about 3.5% of the equity of Fusion New Energy and will deepen cooperation; as of the end of November 2025, Shanxi had built 369 intelligent coal mines, accounting for more than one - third of the country; Inner Mongolia undertakes about 795 million tons of thermal coal supply tasks this year; Indonesia will impose an export tariff on coal; the steel industry in Iran faces a serious shortage of natural gas [12][13]. 3.4 Data Overview The report presents multiple charts including the spot price indexes of metallurgical coke and primary coking coal in major markets, the production and capacity utilization rates of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average hot metal output, the coke and coking coal inventories of ports, coking plants, and steel mills, and the basis between spot and futures contracts [15][18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures rose, with the intraday gain of the main contract approaching the daily limit. The market continued to trade on the disturbance in Yichun's mining end. After the market on Tuesday, Jiangte Motor announced the proposed cancellation of its Shiziling mining area, which pushed up the lithium price. The 05 - 01 spread narrowed to 1800, and the prices in the industrial chain showed a stable upward trend. With the short - term supply - side disturbance, the market's bullish sentiment was high, breaking through the previous high, and a new round of upward trend in lithium prices was expected [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures rose, and the intraday gain of the main contract almost hit the daily limit. The market focused on the mining - end disturbance in Yichun. After the market on Tuesday, Jiangte Motor's announcement of the proposed cancellation of the Shiziling mining area led to the high - opening and high - walking of the lithium price during the day. The 05 - 01 spread narrowed to 1800. The spot price of electric carbon increased by 1200 to 97050, the price of spodumene rose by 70 to 1330, the price of lepidolite increased by 85 to 2785, the price of ternary materials increased by 200 - 300, and the price of lithium iron phosphate rose by 280 - 295. The upward trend in the industrial chain was stable, and the lithium price was expected to continue rising [11]. 3.2. Industry News - A joint report by global consulting firm Kearney and the World Economic Forum showed that the global lithium supply can only meet one - third (35%) of the predicted demand in 2035. The report warned that the pace of global electrification, digitalization, and emission reduction is faster than the supply speed of mineral resources. The lithium supply needs to more than double by 2035, and the production of rare - earth elements and copper must increase by over 50%. By 2035, electric vehicles will account for 86% of the total lithium demand, 55% of the cobalt demand, and one - third of the total rare - earth consumption. Even if all announced projects are implemented, existing mines and smelters can only meet 35 - 45% of the predicted demand for lithium and graphite. There is a significant time mismatch in the value chain due to the long development cycle (10 - 20 years) of new mining projects compared to the 1 - 3 - year scale - up time for battery and motor factories. To achieve electrification goals, 60 million kilometers of transmission lines need to be newly built or replaced by 2035, and the grid infrastructure will account for 22% of the global copper demand, 29% of the vanadium demand, and 7% of the lithium demand [12]. - J.P. Morgan's latest report predicted that the average price of lithium carbonate in 2026 will be $17,500 per ton, a 43% increase from the previous forecast, and $22,000 per ton in 2027, a 66% increase. It is estimated that the lithium production of Chilean lithium producer SQM in 2026 will reach 275,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, with 250,000 tons from Chile and 25,000 tons from Australia. The demand for energy - storage system batteries in 2026 is expected to reach 900 gigawatt - hours, a 17% increase from the previous forecast, and energy - storage systems will account for 34% of the total lithium demand in 2026, rising to 42% by 2030 [12]. - The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau recently issued a public notice on the proposed cancellation of 27 mining rights, which attracted wide attention in the domestic lithium - battery industry, and some involved enterprises raised objections. Jiangte Motor's Shiziling mining area in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province, is one of the 27 mining rights to be cancelled. On the evening of December 16, Jiangte Motor announced that it had submitted an objection application to the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau, proposed relevant solutions, and tried its best to renew the mining license for the Shiziling mining area. The company also stated that the notice is a proposed cancellation notice, and the final decision depends on the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau. The company obtained the mining license for the Shiziling mining area in 2014 and renewed it in 2019, with an annual production scale of 1.2 million tons and a mining area of 0.1114 square kilometers [13].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 18, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The zinc market is currently intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and macro - sentiment fluctuates frequently. On the industrial level, supply tightening and off - season inventory reduction still provide downside support. It is expected that the short - term zinc price will continue to fluctuate around 23,000 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In the futures market, for different contracts of SHFE zinc (2601, 2602, 2603), prices all declined. The main contract of SHFE zinc dropped to 22,835 yuan/ton, then oscillated higher in the morning session, closing at 22,970 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan with a decline of 0.73%, and there was a reduction in volume and open interest. The concern about low inventory of LME zinc eased, leading to a weaker structure, and the inventory on December 17 increased by 2,150 tons to 97,700 tons. Domestically, the tightness in the mining end continued to spread, with processing fees decreasing and arrivals reducing, which supported the continuous reduction of social inventory. Some spot market transactions improved slightly, but downstream buyers were mainly making rigid purchases due to factors like environmental protection. As the price on the futures market continued to fall, more downstream buyers were placing price - fixing orders [7] 2. Industry News - On December 17, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc were concentrated between 23,035 - 23,200 yuan/ton, and there was no transaction for Shuangyan. The mainstream transaction prices of 1 zinc were between 22,965 - 23,130 yuan/ton. In different markets, such as Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong, there were specific price ranges and premium/discount situations for different brands of zinc relative to different contracts and other markets [8] 3. Data Overview - The report shows figures related to the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources including Wind, SMM, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [10][12]