行业 棉花 日期 2026 年 1 月 21 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡调整。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15856 元/吨，较上一 交易日跌 24 元/吨。2025/26 南疆喀什机采 31 级双 29/ ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 21 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 一、纯碱、玻璃行情回顾与操作建议 | | | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货1月20日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 21 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After the positive factors of asphalt raw materials are gradually digested, the supply and demand return to an equilibrium level, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of oil prices [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2603, the opening price was 3,142 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,139 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,156 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3,124 yuan/ton, the decline was 0.03%, and the trading volume was 1.189 million lots. For BU2604, the opening price was 3,166 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,152 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,170 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3,138 yuan/ton, the change was 0, and the trading volume was 0.113 million lots [6] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of asphalt in North China, Shandong, and Sichuan-Chongqing regions decreased, while those in South China increased slightly, and prices in other regions remained stable. Due to cooling and rainy and snowy weather, the rigid demand for asphalt continued to decline [6] - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, Shengxing Petrochemical planned to switch to asphalt production on the 16th, but Qilu Petrochemical switched to residue production on the 15th, and the operating load rate of asphalt plants next week is expected to remain basically the same. On the demand side, cold air will strengthen in the next ten days, with obvious rain and snow in the Huanghuai to the Yangtze River region. Road construction projects in East and Central China may gradually enter the final or suspension stage. Winter storage contracts in the north will continue to arrive, and overall demand is expected to fluctuate little. With the seasonal decline in terminal demand and the lack of new positive factors, the sentiment in the asphalt market may remain cautious, and speculative demand is expected to increase limitedly [7] 3.2 Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3,000 - 3,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. International oil prices and asphalt futures continued to fluctuate, providing no guidance for the asphalt spot market. The obvious temperature drop in Shandong and surrounding areas in recent days led to a decrease in terminal rigid demand, weakening spot transactions, and some brand traders lowered their quotes, driving down the market price [8] - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3,130 - 3,230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous working day. Brent crude oil futures closed lower after intraday fluctuations, and asphalt futures continued to fluctuate, failing to provide strong support for the asphalt spot market. The rain and snow in East China affected terminal demand, with limited downstream purchases, and the actual transaction atmosphere in the market was weak, so the mainstream spot transaction price remained stable [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including asphalt cracking, social inventory, daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, manufacturer inventory, and warehouse receipts, with data sources from wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14][19][22]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Research team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - On the 19th, nickel prices fluctuated widely at high levels. After dropping below 140,000 to around 137,000 on the evening of last Friday, prices rebounded during domestic trading hours. The price of ferronickel continued to climb, with the average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rising by 10 to 1,027.5 yuan per nickel point. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained stable at 33,600 yuan/ton, and the coefficient of intermediate product MHP remained high. Although new projects are put into production in the first quarter, the short - term market circulation is still limited due to a two - month approval process. Benefiting from the news of Indonesia's reduction of RKAB and the macro - environment, nickel prices broke away from the long - term low - level oscillation area, but the oversupply pressure has not been reversed. This week, inventories continued to hit new highs, with the pure nickel inventories in the two markets increasing by nearly 3,000 tons, approaching 350,000 tons. Before the final policy is determined, nickel prices will have greater upside potential [7]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel price movement: On the 19th, nickel prices fluctuated widely at high levels. They dropped below 140,000 to around 137,000 on the evening of last Friday and then rebounded during domestic trading hours [7]. - Price changes of related products: The average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron on the 19th rose by 10 to 1,027.5 yuan per nickel point; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained stable at 33,600 yuan/ton; the MHP coefficient of intermediate products remained high [7]. - Inventory situation: This week, inventories continued to hit new highs, with the pure nickel inventories in the two markets increasing by nearly 3,000 tons, approaching 350,000 tons [7]. - Outlook: Before the final policy from Indonesia is determined, nickel prices will have greater upside potential [7]. Group 5: Industry News - Indonesia's production plan: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will use the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) as a strategic tool to align mineral production with domestic industrial demand. The nickel production target is set at about 290 million tons to match smelter capacity. Adjusting production quotas for nickel and coal aims to prevent global oversupply, stabilize falling prices, and protect national resource reserves. Although the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) is worried that production may drop to 250 million tons, the government says the specific data is still being integrated [8]. - Suspension of nickel mining by Vale Indonesia: Due to the unapproved 2026 Work Plan (RKAB), PT Vale Indonesia has suspended its nickel mining business. However, management expects the license to be approved soon, and this temporary suspension will not affect the long - term operational sustainability of the joint venture. The delay only temporarily affects the Pomalaa and Bahodopi nickel projects, while the Sorowako mining area and the integrated RKEF project are still operating normally, so the impact on market supply and demand is relatively limited [10]. - Nickel ore demand in Indonesia: The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association estimates that the domestic nickel smelting industry's demand for nickel ore in 2026 is about 340 - 350 million tons [10].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Recently, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled, and the macro atmosphere has weakened marginally. The non - ferrous sector is adjusting at a high level. The Shanghai aluminum price is running around 24,000, with a significantly narrower fluctuation range. The downstream procurement sentiment has improved due to the falling aluminum price, but high prices still suppress consumption, and the spot premium is expected to be under pressure. The domestic northern bauxite is in the early stage of复产, and the production rhythm is expected to accelerate after the two sessions. The subsequent bauxite price may still have room to fall. The new domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects are still ramping up production. The overseas Mozambique aluminum plant has stopped production, but it will remain at full - capacity operation in Q1. The short - term supply pressure has increased slightly but is limited. On the demand side, high aluminum prices still suppress the terminal, but the aluminum processing start - up rate has rebounded slightly week - on - week due to the approaching Spring Festival and finished - product stocking demand. Currently, the aluminum price is still dominated by the macro and capital sentiment. With the cooling of the macro - market sentiment and the large increase accumulated from the previous rapid rise, the short - term aluminum price has a downward adjustment demand [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestion - Macro environment: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled in January, and the market generally believes that there will be no interest - rate cut. The macro atmosphere has weakened marginally, and the non - ferrous sector is adjusting at a high level [8] - Aluminum price performance: On the 19th, the Shanghai aluminum price was running around 24,000, with a significantly narrower fluctuation range compared to the previous period [8] - Spot market: The downstream procurement sentiment has improved due to the falling aluminum price, but high prices still suppress consumption. The spot premium is expected to be under pressure. The East China discount is - 160, the Central China discount is - 290, and the South China discount is - 130 [8] - Supply side: The domestic northern bauxite is in the early stage of复产, and the production rhythm is expected to accelerate after the two sessions. Due to the compressed profits of alumina plants, the willingness to purchase bauxite at a premium is low, and the subsequent bauxite price may still have room to fall. The new domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects are still ramping up production. The overseas Mozambique aluminum plant has stopped production, but it will remain at full - capacity operation in Q1. The short - term supply pressure has increased slightly but is limited. Although there are concerns about the shortage of power supply in Europe and the United States in the long term, it is not the dominant trading logic in the current market [8] - Demand side: High aluminum prices still suppress the terminal, but the aluminum processing start - up rate has rebounded slightly week - on - week due to the approaching Spring Festival and finished - product stocking demand [8] - Price trend: The aluminum price is still dominated by the macro and capital sentiment. With the cooling of the macro - market sentiment and the large increase accumulated from the previous rapid rise, the short - term aluminum price has a downward adjustment demand [8] Group 5: Industry News - "Aluminum replacing copper" in the air - conditioning industry: 19 air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, have jointly launched the implementation of the "aluminum replacing copper" series of standards. The cost of copper in a household air - conditioner accounts for more than half. The price difference between copper and aluminum is about three times. Some brand stores said they will launch aluminum household air - conditioner products as early as 2026, while others said they have no such plan [9] - Expansion of Lizhong Group: The second - phase 1.8 million ultra - lightweight aluminum alloy wheels project of its Mexican factory has been initially put into production. The 3 - million - piece cast - spun aluminum alloy wheel production capacity of its third Thai aluminum alloy wheel factory is expected to be put into production next year. The high - performance aluminum alloy new material projects newly built in Chongqing, Huai'an, Changchun, Thailand, etc. will be put into production from the fourth quarter of this year to next year, which will improve the company's global production capacity layout and competitiveness [10] - Expansion of Nalco: The Indian state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026 to support its integrated aluminum business expansion. It has awarded the development and operation rights of the mine to Dilip Buildcon Ltd. To match the increased mining capacity, Nalco is expanding the fifth production line of its Damanjodi alumina plant, which will increase the annual production capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10]

1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 19, the main contracts 2605 of coke and coking coal futures rebounded and then weakened again. The daily KDJ indicators of the 2605 contracts of coke and coking coal continued to decline after a dead - cross the previous day, and the red bars of the daily MACD of the 2605 contracts of coke and coking coal narrowed for 5 consecutive trading days. News factors hindered the recent rise of coal - coke futures, and fundamental changes led to the weak and volatile trend of coal - coke futures. It is expected that the market may first decline and then rise, and it is still advisable to try to buy hedging or investment positions at low prices after the correction [5][8][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Futures Market**: On January 19, for the J2605 contract, the previous closing price was 1717 yuan/ton, the opening price was 1720 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1762 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1713.5 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1721 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.04%, the trading volume was 23,136 lots, the open interest was 37,637 lots (a decrease of 1,090 lots), and the capital inflow/outflow was - 0.34 billion yuan. For the JM2605 contract, the previous closing price was 1171 yuan/ton, the opening price was 1172.5 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1199 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1161 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1174.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.80%, the trading volume was 1,006,909 lots, the open interest was 502,734 lots (an increase of 5,024 lots), and the capital inflow/outflow was 0.92 billion yuan [5]. - **Black - series Futures Positions**: On January 19, in the black - series futures market, the long - short positions and their changes in different contracts varied. For example, in the RB2605 contract, the top 20 long positions were 1,063,915 lots (a decrease of 40,406 lots), the top 20 short positions were 1,121,177 lots (a decrease of 5,779 lots), and the long - short difference was - 34,627 lots with a deviation of - 3.17%. [6] 3.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - **Spot Market**: On January 19, the flat - price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1470 yuan/ton with no change. The aggregated price of low - sulfur primary coking coal in different regions such as Tangshan, Lvliang, and Linfen also remained unchanged [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily KDJ indicators of the 2605 contracts of coke and coking coal continued to decline after a dead - cross the previous day, and the red bars of the daily MACD of the 2605 contracts of coke and coking coal narrowed for 5 consecutive trading days [8]. 3.3 News and Fundamental Analysis - **News**: On January 17, the first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore arrived at Baowu's Majishan Port. On January 18, an explosion occurred at the Baotou Steel Branch in Inner Mongolia. On January 17, US President Trump announced tariffs on 8 European countries' exports to the US, which triggered EU's consideration of counter - measures [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Recently, independent coking enterprises have been in continuous losses for 4 weeks, and the loss margin has widened for 2 consecutive weeks. Their coke production decreased slightly after 2 consecutive weeks of increase. Port coke inventories have been rising for 4 consecutive weeks from the lowest level since mid - January last year, and steel mill coke inventories have been rising for 4 consecutive weeks and reached a new high since mid - October last year, while coking enterprise coke inventories have been falling for 4 consecutive weeks from the highest level since late July last year. Since January 12, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has rebounded again. Except on January 16, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port has been above 190,000 tons. Recently, the coking coal inventories of 230 independent coking plants have increased significantly, while the coking coal inventories of steel enterprises and ports have been relatively stable [11]. 3.4 Industry News - The State Council executive meeting on January 16 emphasized promoting consumption. The Ministry of Commerce held talks on China - Canada economic and trade relations. The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development proposed urban renewal tasks. National statistical data showed the production and economic indicators of various industries in 2025, including the production of coke, steel, etc., and the economic operation data of the real estate market. The National Energy Administration announced that China's total social electricity consumption exceeded 10 trillion kWh in 2025. Some companies released their operation data and performance forecasts, and there were also news about international trade and corporate development strategies [12][13][14][15]. 3.5 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the aggregated spot price of primary coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average pig iron production, the coke inventories of ports/steel mills/coking plants, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants, the production and operating rate of sample mines, the inventories of clean coal and raw coal in sample mines, the coking coal inventories of ports/coking plants/steel mills, and the basis of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class coke and Linfen's low - sulfur primary coking coal with the May contracts [16][17][24][29][30][37].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market has gradually digested the news of LME suspending Korea Zinc's delivery permission, and the market sentiment in the confrontation between the US and Europe has become cautious. Short - term long - term funds have loosened. The long - short game in the market has intensified, and the combination of mood withdrawal and high - price suppression effects has led to a high - level correction. The short - term technical support can be focused on the 24,000 yuan/ton line [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The main contract of SHFE Zinc closed at 24,450 yuan/ton, down 475 yuan or 1.91%, with shrinking volume and reduced positions. The trading volume decreased by 13,597 lots to 128,677 lots. Among them, the 2602 contract closed at 24,410 yuan/ton, down 435 yuan or 1.75%; the 2604 contract closed at 24,490 yuan/ton, down 435 yuan or 1.75% [7] - **Industry Aspects**: As the SHFE - LME ratio rebounds, the zinc ore import window continues to open, but the actual increase in imported ore is limited due to the constraint of previous import losses. The imported ore processing fee continues to decline, and the weekly average domestic TC is flat at 1,500 yuan/metal ton. The decline of the overall TC has eased and may be approaching the stage bottom. The refined zinc output in December decreased significantly. Although the output in January is expected to rise slightly, the zinc ingot import window is still closed, and the supply pressure is limited [7] - **Demand Side**: Affected by the environmental protection warning in the north and high zinc prices, the primary consumption start - up has declined. After the end of the environmental protection production - restriction policy this week, affected enterprises may gradually resume production. However, in the seasonal off - season and with high zinc prices squeezing the profit space of downstream enterprises, some enterprises have entered equipment maintenance and holiday in advance, and the start - up recovery is expected to be limited [7] 2. Industry News - On January 19, 2026, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated at 24,135 - 24,280 yuan/ton, Shuangyan was traded at 24,325 - 24,480 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc was traded at 24,065 - 24,210 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 50 - 60 yuan/ton to the SMM average price, and there were almost no quotes against the market [8] - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at about 24,165 - 24,280 yuan/ton. The conventional brand in Ningbo quoted a premium of 175 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract and a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. The mainstream in the Ningbo area quoted against the 2602 contract [8] - In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded at 24,010 - 24,180 yuan/ton, Zijin was traded at 24,050 - 24,230 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc ingots were traded at around 23,880 - 24,020 yuan/ton. Zijin quoted a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, Hu zinc quoted around 25,640 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, 0 zinc ingots quoted around 10 - 50 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, and the Tianjin market quoted a discount of around 70 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market [8] - In Guangdong, 0 zinc was mainly traded at 23,955 - 24,175 yuan/ton, and the mainstream brand quoted a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong has narrowed [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides information about data sources including Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures, and mentions some data charts such as the weekly inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of zinc in two markets, and SHFE monthly spreads, but no specific data content is given [10][11][13]

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Highlights - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In January, the bond market is entering a phase where negative factors are gradually materializing. Although the short - term possibility of a second interest rate cut is low and the policy expectations are not high, the central bank still has room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, with a loose orientation unchanged. The supply - demand mismatch in the first quarter may present allocation opportunities, and the market may remain volatile in the short term [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: GDP data released in the morning met expectations. Despite the marginal weakening of economic activities in December, the short - term possibility of a second interest rate cut is low, and policy expectations are not high. Coupled with the increased disturbance of the tax period to the capital market this week, treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly and closed slightly lower across the board [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds with various maturities changed within a narrow range. The decline of long - term active bonds was within 1bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 reported 1.8405%, down 0.25bp [9] - **Capital Market**: The inter - bank capital market was stable. The net reverse repurchase investment in the open market today was 7.22 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index changed little. The overnight DR in the inter - bank deposit market fluctuated within a narrow range around 1.32%. The 7 - day capital interest rate rose 3.42bp to 1.48%. The medium - and long - term capital was stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit interest rate fluctuated within a narrow range around 1.63% - 1.64% [10] - **Conclusion**: In January, the bond market's negative factors are gradually being realized. However, the central bank still has room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The supply - demand mismatch in the first quarter may bring allocation opportunities. In the short term, after the release of economic data this week, there will be a 1.5 - month data window period. The implementation of the structural interest rate cut last week may mean entering a policy observation period, and the easing expectations may not significantly increase before the Two Sessions in March, and the market may maintain a volatile trend [11][12] 2. Industry News - **GDP Data**: In 2025, China's GDP was 14,018.79 billion yuan, a 5% increase over the previous year at constant prices. The added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.9%, the added value of the service industry increased by 5.4%, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7%, and the fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% [13] - **Housing Price Data**: In December 2025, the prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities generally declined month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened. The prices of new homes in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the decline of second - hand housing prices decreased by 0.9% [13] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides data on the trading of treasury bond futures on January 19, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] - **Money Market**: The report includes information on the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate change [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]

Report Information - Report Name: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot market shows signs of peaking. The Shanghai Port's export freight rate to European base ports stopped rising and fell last weekend, and the SCFIS index also declined slightly on Monday. Multiple airlines have started to lower their quotes for late January. The signal of airlines reducing prices to attract cargo is evident, and the inflection point of the spot high should have appeared. With the Red Sea situation causing disruptions but airlines resuming flights, it is likely that normal passage will be restored this year. Attention should be paid to short-selling opportunities in the April contract during the off - season [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The Shanghai Port's export freight rate to European base ports was reported at $1676/TEU, a 2.5% decline from the previous period. Multiple airlines, including Maersk, OOCL, HMM, and ONE, have lowered their quotes for late January [8]. - Operation Suggestion: Focus on short - selling opportunities in the April contract during the off - season [8]. 3.2. Industry News - Market Overview (January 12 - January 16): To cope with the "Spring Festival" holiday, cargo volume increased slightly, but freight rates on ocean routes decreased slightly, and the comprehensive index declined. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on January 16 was 1574.12 points, a 4.4% decline from the previous period [9]. - European Routes: The Sentix January euro - zone investor confidence index was - 1.8, better than the expected - 4.9. Transport demand was stable with a slight increase, but the average freight rate from Shanghai Port to European base ports on January 16 was $1676/TEU, a 2.5% decline from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean Routes: Similar to European routes, but the spot market booking price declined more. The average freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean base ports on January 16 was $2983/TEU, a 7.7% decline from the previous period [9]. - North American Routes: The number of first - time unemployment benefit applicants in the US in the second week of January was 198,000, better than expected. The shipping market supply - demand situation was generally stable, and the spot market booking price fluctuated slightly. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East base ports on January 16 were $2194/FEU and $3165/FEU respectively, with changes of - 1.1% and + 1.2% from the previous period [9][10]. - Policy News: The Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced that the adjustment of the contract months of the Container Freight Index (European Line) futures would be implemented from February 10, 2026, with new contracts EC2605, EC2607, EC2609 added, and no addition of EC2603 considering the main contract switch. EC2703 will be added on March 31, 2026 [10]. - International News: The US announced the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire plan on January 14. On January 12, the US and the UK launched a large - scale military strike against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthi rebels warned Saudi Arabia against military action [10]. 3.3. Data Overview 3.3.1. Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | 2026/1/19 | 2026/1/12 | Change | YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Routes (Basic Ports) | 1954.19 | 1956.39 | - 2.2 | - 0.1% | | SCFIS: US West Routes (Basic Ports) | 1305.27 | 1323.98 | - 18.71 | - 1.4% | [12] 3.3.2. Container Freight Index (European Line) Futures Market - Multiple figures show the trends of the main and secondary main contracts of container shipping European line futures, as well as shipping - related data trends such as European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates [18][22]