Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side changes are expected to be the dominant factor in future oil prices, and the demand side lacks significant growth potential. Brent oil prices are expected to oscillate at a low level in the range of $60 - 75 per barrel [3]. - The short - term fundamentals of PTA are stronger than those of PX, with PXN expected to run weakly and PTA processing fees having a slight recovery [3]. - Short - term ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, with a risk of supply - demand gap under low inventory and a far - month inventory accumulation expectation [4]. - In the short term, pure benzene demand support is weak, BZN weakens, and styrene oscillates weakly [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply side: OPEC+ maintains the production increase policy, and non - OPEC+ supply in South America is expected to gradually increase. Geopolitically, Russian energy facilities have been attacked, and there is a possibility of upgraded sanctions by Europe and the United States [3]. - Demand side: It lacks significant growth potential drivers. The market has anticipated the supply increase, but inventory has not significantly accumulated, and the risk of oversupply needs verification [3]. - Price forecast: Brent oil prices are expected to oscillate at a low level in the range of $60 - 75 per barrel [3]. PX & PTA - PX: The domestic and Asian PX capacity utilization rates are at a high level, and the PX - naphtha spread has weakened. PXN is expected to run weakly due to factors such as high - level naphtha prices and lackluster downstream performance [3][7]. - PTA: There have been many changes in PTA devices. The processing fees have been slightly repaired, and the inventory has been slightly reduced. The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term, and the short - term fundamentals are stronger than those of PX [3]. MEG - Supply: The weekly MEG capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the port inventory has slightly increased, but it is difficult to be sustained within the month. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in the far - month [4][17]. - Demand: The downstream polyester load has slightly increased, and the demand in the traditional peak season has slightly improved, but the industry chain has a cautious expectation for future demand [4]. - Price forecast: Short - term prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [4]. BZ & EB - Pure benzene: The pure benzene capacity utilization rate is at a high level, with large supply pressure due to new capacity. The downstream demand support is weak, and BZN weakens [4][28]. - Styrene: The styrene capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly. There will be new capacity released in September - October, and the supply is expected to gradually increase. The demand side is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4][28]. Polyester Industry - Capacity utilization rate: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the domestic polyester industry has decreased slightly, while the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased. The terminal weaving orders have increased, and the factory inventory has decreased [23]. - Demand expectation: The downstream demand has improved, but the industry chain is cautious about future demand due to unclear trends in tariffs and exchange rates [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, the glass futures rose again, which was the result of the resonance of policy expectations, marginal improvement in supply - demand, and sector linkage [3]. - The A - share market is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level overall [7]. - The gold market is showing strength and can continue to be bullish [12]. - The iron ore market is in a high - level wide - range oscillation range and should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [14]. - The glass market should return to a low - buying strategy [19]. - The soybean oil market is under pressure from high inventory and should be treated with a bearish bias [23]. - The pulp market is expected to remain in low - level oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures - On September 24, multiple ministries issued a work plan to strictly control cement and glass production capacity, which is beneficial to the glass market [4]. - On September 25, the glass production and sales rate increased significantly, driving enterprise inventories to continue to decline. As of September 25, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.553 million heavy boxes or 2.55%, and a year - on - year decrease of 18.56% [4]. Stock Index Futures - The A - share market opened lower and moved higher. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index oscillated upward throughout the day, while the Shanghai Composite Index oscillated slightly around the opening price. The market is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level [7][8]. Gold - The market is trading the expectation of an interest rate cut in October. After three days of adjustment, gold rose strongly again and reached a new high, showing obvious strength [12]. Iron Ore - The supply side has stable shipments. Recently, steel mills are showing signs of resuming production, and molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. With the approaching of the National Day holiday in the middle and late period, the start of restocking may support raw materials. Technically, it is still in a high - level wide - range oscillation range [14][15]. Glass - Technically, the glass market has risen sharply and regained its platform support, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted. The daily melting is basically stable, the factory inventory has declined slightly, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation near the peak season [19][20]. Soybean Oil - As of September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. High inventory suppresses the price increase space, and the market should be treated with a bearish bias [23]. Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong region remained stable today, and the port inventory started to decline slightly, remaining at a medium - to - high level. There is an expected boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement has been seen yet, and it is expected to remain in low - level oscillation [28].

Report Overview - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Glass Futures Soar: Uptrend under Multiple Expectations" - Report Date: September 25, 2025 - Report Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 24, the sharp rise of glass futures was the result of the resonance of policy expectations, marginal improvement in supply and demand, and sector linkage. The policy has become the core driving force, and the supply - demand side shows positive signals. The strong performance of photovoltaic glass has a driving effect, and investors should seize long - position opportunities [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures - The sharp rise on September 24 was due to policy expectations, supply - demand improvement, and sector linkage. Policy support includes strict capacity control in the building materials industry and real - estate support policies. Supply - demand side shows positive signals such as inventory reduction in the main production area, increased enthusiasm of traders, and improved production - sales ratio. The strong performance of photovoltaic glass has boosted the sector [3][4]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - It closed with a bare - headed and bare - footed medium阳线. With news such as Alibaba's plan for a 380 billion AI infrastructure construction and Fed's call for faster interest - rate cuts, the market is expected to continue to oscillate upward at a high level [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The market is trading the expectation of an interest - rate cut in October. After three days of adjustment, gold rose strongly again, showing obvious strength, and the outlook is bullish [12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The start of restocking may support raw materials. Technically, it is still in a high - level wide - range oscillation range, and an oscillatory approach should be adopted [15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Technically, it soared due to news today and should be viewed from an oscillatory perspective. Daily melting is basically stable, factory inventory has declined slightly, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient, and attention should be paid to restocking near the peak season [20][21]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - On September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. High inventory restricts price increase, and it should be treated with a bearish oscillatory view [24]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - Today, the pulp price in Shandong remained stable, and port inventory started to decline slightly. It is still at a medium - to - high level. There are expectations of improvement before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement has been seen yet. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Shanghai Silver futures has been rising strongly, with the main contract reaching 10,317 yuan on September 22, a 3.81% increase, hitting a record high. The COMEX silver futures have accumulated a 41% increase since the beginning of the year, far exceeding the 35% increase of gold during the same period. The rise is due to three main reasons: macro - level factors, fundamental factors, and technical factors [3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to fluctuate at a high level overall. The market has a positive expectation due to a press conference at 3 pm today, and relevant departments are promoting the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes [7]. - The gold market is trading on the expectation of an interest rate cut in October. After a three - day adjustment, gold has reached a new high with a strong upward trend and can continue to be bullish [11]. - For iron ore, the start of restocking may support raw materials. Technically, it is still in a high - level wide - range oscillation range and should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [14]. - For glass, it declined today. Attention should be paid to the support level of the lower platform. The daily melting is basically stable, the factory inventory has slightly decreased, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient [18][19]. - For soybean oil, on September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons. High inventory restricts the price increase space, and it should be treated with a bearish oscillatory view [22]. - For pulp, the price in Shandong is stable, the port inventory is slightly decreasing, and it remains at a medium - high level. Before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, there is an expected boost, but no improvement is seen yet. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - The continuous rise of Shanghai Silver futures is mainly due to: macro - level factors such as the Fed's monetary policy shift (new Fed governor's dovish speech supporting a 150 - basis - point interest rate cut this year and market expectations of two 25 - basis - point cuts in the next two meetings) and rising geopolitical tensions; fundamental factors including supply - demand imbalance in the silver market (increased demand from the photovoltaic industry and a global supply - demand gap of 3,659 tons in 2025) and increased investment value; and technical factors such as a bullish moving - average arrangement and a MACD golden cross [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a small positive line with a lower shadow. A press conference today is expected to be positive for the market, and relevant departments are promoting the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The market is trading on the expectation of an interest rate cut in October. After a three - day adjustment, gold reached a new high with a strong upward trend and can continue to be bullish [11]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The supply is stable, steel mills are gradually resuming production, and iron ore restocking before the National Day may support prices. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation range [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The glass price declined today. Attention should be paid to the lower platform support. The daily melting is stable, the factory inventory has slightly decreased, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - On September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. High inventory restricts the price increase space [22]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The price of pulp in Shandong is stable, the port inventory is slightly decreasing and remains at a medium - high level. Before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, there is an expected boost, but no improvement is seen yet. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean oil futures market is expected to be volatile and bearish due to factors such as high domestic soybean supply, low demand, and weak international soybean futures [4][22]. - The stock index futures market is expected to continue high - level volatile adjustment next week [7]. - The gold market is expected to undergo a period of adjustment after a decline [10][11]. - The iron ore market should be treated with a volatile mindset, as supply is stable and steel mills' restocking may support raw materials [14][15]. - The glass market should be monitored for the support at the lower platform, with attention on the restocking situation as the peak season approaches [18][19]. - The pulp market is expected to maintain low - level volatility, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - On September 19, 2025, soybean oil futures rose and then fell [3]. - The domestic soybean arrival volume remains high, the oil mill operating rate is at a high level in recent years, and last week's actual crushing volume reached 2.3039 million tons. The soybean supply is sufficient, leading to an increase in soybean oil output. As of September 5, the soybean oil commercial inventory reached 1.2513 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,500 tons [4]. - On September 12, the domestic soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons [22]. Stock Index Futures - A - share market: The three major A - share indexes opened lower in the morning, fluctuated throughout the day, were mostly in the positive territory, and declined near the end of the session. The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a small negative line [8]. - News: In July, China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by $25.7 billion, and the holding scale reached a new low since 2009. Shanghai optimized and adjusted the policies related to the pilot individual housing property tax [7]. Gold - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the gold market declined, with the expectation of a period of adjustment [10][11]. Iron Ore - The supply side has stable shipments. Steel mills are showing signs of resuming production, and molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. As the National Day approaches in the middle and late period, steel mills' restocking may support raw materials [14][15]. Glass - The daily melting volume is basically stable, the factory inventory has slightly declined, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation as the peak season approaches [19]. Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong region remained stable today, and the port inventory started to decline slightly, remaining at a medium - high level. There is an expected boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement has been seen yet, so it is expected to maintain low - level volatility [26].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market of petrochemical products is complex, with supply and demand factors influencing prices. Crude oil prices are in a weak consolidation phase, and the prices of downstream products such as PX, PTA, MEG, and benzene series face different supply - demand situations and price trends [4][5]. - The petrochemical market is still in the recovery stage, but downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, and the market trading atmosphere is sluggish [25]. 3. Summary by Variety BZ&EB - Pure benzene has high supply pressure due to new capacity coming online from August - September, and downstream demand support is weak. Although port inventories are decreasing, they remain at a high level. Benzene - to - styrene (BZN) weakened and then stabilized. Styrene's planned maintenance was carried out, with an operating rate of 73.44% (down 1.54% from last week). New capacity will be gradually released from September - October, and supply is expected to increase. The downstream 3S operating rate changed little, and the price rebound space is limited [4]. - This week, the pure benzene operating rate was 78.35% (down 0.94% from last week), and the styrene operating rate was 73.44% (down 1.54% from last week). BZN dropped to around $120/ton. The 3S operating rate recovery was okay, but the ABS inventory pressure was large. Pure benzene and styrene port inventories started to decline, but the overall industrial chain inventory was high, and terminal recovery was slow [33]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ started the second - stage production increase in October, with an increase of 137,000 barrels per day compared to September. Geopolitical risks did not further intensify, and the impact of sanctions on supply and trade flow was limited. The EU will ban the import of refined products from Russian crude oil starting in early 2026. The seasonal inflection point on the demand side has appeared, and crude oil prices are in a weak consolidation phase [5]. PX&PTA - PX's short - term operating rate is relatively strong, but the cost support from the declining crude oil price center has weakened significantly. Although downstream load has increased, PXN is expected to operate weakly. Recently, there have been many changes in PTA devices. Two 2.5 - million - ton devices restarted last week, and a 4.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China will restart, increasing short - term supply. PTA processing fees are at a historical low of 139 yuan/ton. PTA factory inventories continue to accumulate, and the supply - demand pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term, limiting the price rebound space [5]. - The weekly average domestic PX capacity utilization rate was 85.51% (up 0.88% from last week), and the Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 75.2% (up 0.59%). The PX - naphtha spread remained at around $235/ton. Some PX devices had maintenance and restart operations. Although it is the downstream polyester peak season, new orders and load did not exceed expectations. PX will enter the end of the expansion cycle in 2024, and attention should be paid to the commissioning time of a 3 - million - ton new capacity in the fourth quarter [9]. - This week, the PTA spot market price was 4,617 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton from last week), and the mainstream spot basis weakened to - 79 yuan/ton. The PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate was 77.29% (up 2.34% month - on - month). The 4.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China will restart, increasing short - term supply. The new PTA device maintenance plan from October - November has limited impact on the current market. After the new device is put into operation in October, PTA will enter the inventory accumulation cycle again, and supply pressure still exists. PTA processing fees are at a historical low, and the market's expectation for peak - season demand has significantly weakened [12]. MEG - This week, the MEG operating rate continued to rise, and port inventories increased slightly, but it is difficult to sustain within the month. There is a risk of supply - demand gap under low inventory in the short term. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in the far - month, suppressing the valuation of the 2601 contract. Currently, the supply - demand is tight under low inventory, downstream polyester load has slightly increased, and the traditional peak - season demand has slightly improved. The market is still in the recovery stage, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [5]. - This week, the MEG market price was 4,352 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan/ton month - on - month). The domestic MEG total capacity utilization rate was 67.04% (up 0.49% from last week), and the coal - based MEG capacity utilization rate was 67.52% (up 1.56% from last week). The gross profit was - 162.28/ton (down 103.63/ton month - on - month). Port inventories increased to 383,700 tons (up 20,500 tons from last week), still at a historical low level. Due to pre - holiday stocking, polyester factories still have demand for low - price replenishment. The supply - demand structure of MEG from September - October has improved compared to expectations, and the transferable spot is continuously tightening [19]. Polyester - This week, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry was 87.9%, remaining flat from last week. The short - fiber and long - filament operating rates slightly increased. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 62.19% (down 0.23% from last week). The average number of terminal weaving order days was 14.42 days (down 0.13 days from last week), and factory inventories slightly increased. The overall terminal weaving market has weak driving forces, downstream demand has not improved significantly, the market trading atmosphere is sluggish, seasonal orders are average, and there are few large - order news. The market is still in the recovery stage [25].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - On September 18, 2025, the soybean oil futures continuously declined with a drop of 1.64%. Multiple unfavorable factors led to the decline, and the subsequent trend should be treated with a volatile and bearish outlook [3][4]. - The stock index futures are expected to continue high - level volatile adjustment in the short term [7]. - Gold is expected to be adjusted for some time after closing with a mid -阴线 due to the so - called "buy on rumor, sell on news" effect after the Fed's normal 25 - basis - point rate cut [11][12]. - Iron ore may be supported by restocking. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range volatile range and should be treated with a volatile mindset [15][16]. - Glass continues to adjust today, and attention should be paid to the support level of the lower platform. The downstream deep - processing orders' recovery is insufficient, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation approaching the peak season [19][20]. - High inventory of soybean oil suppresses the price increase space, and it should be treated with a volatile and bearish outlook [23]. - Pulp in Shandong maintains stable prices, with port inventory starting to decline slightly. It is expected to be boosted before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season but has not improved yet. It is maintained at a low - level volatile view, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Soybean Oil - Supply side: The domestic soybean arrival volume remains high, the oil mill operating rate is at a high level in recent years, and the actual crushing volume last week reached 2.3039 million tons. The soybean supply is sufficient, leading to increased soybean oil output. The port soybean inventory has increased to 9.661 million tons, and the soybean oil commercial inventory has continuously increased, reaching 1.2513 million tons as of September 5, a month - on - month increase of 12,500 tons [4]. - Demand side: There is not much new demand currently. Although some groups have started small - package stocking, the external sales of bulk oil have decreased, and it is not yet the time for the concentrated release of Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking demand, so the demand side has insufficient support for prices [4]. - International market: The US soybean futures have been running weakly, weakening the support for domestic soybean oil [4]. Stock Index Futures - Market performance: The three major A - share indexes opened lower in the morning, rose rapidly, then fell back at noon, and suddenly dived in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a mid -阴线 [7][8]. - News: The Fed announced its first 25 - basis - point rate cut in 2025 as expected, and the securities trading stamp duty in August increased by 226% year - on - year [7]. Gold - The Fed's normal 25 - basis - point rate cut, in line with market expectations, led to a general decline in the commodity market, and gold closed with a mid -阴线 [12]. Iron Ore - Supply side: The shipping is stable. Recently, steel mills show signs of gradually resuming production, and the hot metal is expected to remain at a high level [16]. - Demand side: Approaching the National Day in the middle and late period, steel mills' restocking may support the raw materials [15][16]. Glass - Supply side: The daily melting is basically stable, and the factory inventory has slightly declined [20]. - Demand side: The recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation approaching the peak season [20]. Pulp - Market situation: The pulp price in Shandong today remains stable, and the port inventory starts to decline slightly, remaining at a medium - to - high level. It is expected to be boosted before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season but has not improved yet [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The decline of soybean oil futures on September 17, 2025, was due to multiple factors, and the subsequent trend should be treated with a bias towards a downward oscillation [3][4]. - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillation in the short term [7]. - For gold, it is recommended to wait for the result of the Fed's September interest - rate decision before making a decision [11]. - Iron ore should be treated with an oscillation mindset as the start of restocking may support raw materials [13]. - Glass can be considered from a low - buying perspective [17]. - Pulp is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - Supply: The current domestic soybean arrival volume remains high, the oil mill operating rate is at a high level in recent years, and last week's actual crushing volume reached 2.3039 million tons. The soybean inventory at ports increased to 9.661 million tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil also continued to accumulate, reaching 1.2513 million tons as of September 5, a month - on - month increase of 12,500 tons [4]. - Demand: There is not much new demand currently. Although some groups have started small - package stockpiling, the external sales of bulk oil have decreased, and the concentrated release of stocking demand for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day has not yet arrived [4]. - International Market: The continuous weak operation of US soybean futures has weakened the support for domestic soybean oil [4]. - Inventory: On September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. High inventory suppresses the price increase space [21]. A - share Market - Market Performance: The three major A - share indices opened lower and oscillated in the morning on September 18, 2025, and started to recover after 10:30. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index performed stronger than the Shanghai Composite Index [8]. - News: The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption", and the market awaited the result of the Fed's September interest - rate decision at 0:00 on September 18 [7]. - Outlook: The market is expected to continue high - level oscillation in the short term [7]. Gold - Market Condition: Gold oscillated after reaching a new high, and the market was waiting for the result of the Fed's September interest - rate decision [11]. - Recommendation: Wait for the news to land before making a decision [11]. Iron Ore - Supply: The shipment is stable, and steel mills are showing signs of gradual resumption of production. The molten iron is expected to maintain a high - level operation [14]. - Demand: As the National Day approaches in the middle and late period, steel mills' restocking may support raw materials [13][14]. - Outlook: It is still in a high - level wide - range oscillation range and should be treated with an oscillation mindset [13]. Glass - Supply: The daily melting is basically stable, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly [18]. - Demand: The recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is not sufficient, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation near the peak season [18]. - Outlook: After a small adjustment today, it can be considered from a low - buying perspective [17]. Pulp - Price: The pulp price in Shandong area remained stable today [24]. - Inventory: The port inventory started to decrease slightly and remained at a medium - high level [24]. - Outlook: There is expected to be a boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement has been seen yet. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The double - offset paper market shows a pattern of supply - demand weakness. The spot price in Shandong is stable, downstream demand is weak, and the industry profit has narrowed below the cost line. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with attention to device operation and pulp price changes [8]. - The pulp market also has a supply - demand weakness. The price of silver leaf pulp in Shandong is stable with a downward trend, the industry's operating rate is low, and the futures price has fallen. It is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations, suggesting a high - selling and low - buying strategy [13]. - For both pulp and double - offset paper, the long - position main force has reduced positions, which is bearish [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Double - Offset Paper - **Supply and Inventory**: Some停产 enterprises have resumed production this week, and the capacity utilization rate has increased month - on - month. However, downstream consumption has not improved, and users mainly make rigid - demand purchases. Traders mostly follow a just - in - time inventory strategy. Enterprise inventory has slightly increased compared to last week, and on - site inventory has continued a small rebound, remaining at a high level in recent years [2]. - **Price and Market Outlook**: The spot price of double - offset paper in Shandong remains stable today. With weak supply and demand, the shut - down factories have not resumed production on a large scale. The industry profit has continued to narrow below the cost line. In the short term, it is expected to remain volatile, and future focus should be on device operation and pulp price changes [8]. Pulp - **Price and Market Outlook**: The price of silver leaf pulp in Shandong is stable with a downward trend today. With weak supply and demand, the industry's operating rate remains low, and the futures price has fallen. It is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy is recommended [13]. - **Main Force Trend**: The long - position main force in the pulp market has reduced positions, which is bearish [16].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The overall carbon element supply remains abundant, with an expectation of a gradual recovery in downstream hot metal. The market sentiment still anticipates coal over - production inspections. For various commodities, there are different trends and investment suggestions, including seizing opportunities in the volatile and upward - trending markets [5][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs A. Coking Coal and Coke - On September 16, 2025, coking coal futures rose for the fourth consecutive day, with a gain of 5.84% and closing at 1,240 yuan. From a fundamental perspective, stricter safety inspections in Shanxi may limit production release, but steel mill profits have limited recovery, hot metal production is at a medium - low level, coke demand is insufficient, and coking plant inventories are high with low procurement willingness. From a news perspective, supply - side disturbances at coal mines may last until around National Day, but downstream procurement of coking coal and coke has slowed, and speculative demand has weakened. The prices of coke and coking coal are still greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, with high volatility. One should seize the opportunities in the volatile and upward - trending markets [3][4][6]. B. Stock Index Futures - The ChiNext market closed with a small阳线 with a lower shadow. In terms of news, the results of the China - US economic and trade talks in Madrid were announced, reaching a basic framework consensus. Since the "14th Five - Year Plan", China's grain output has reached a new level, with a per - capita possession of 500 kilograms. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upward in the short term [9]. C. Gold - The US non - farm payroll data for August still fell short of expectations, and there is a high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and the price is expected to continue rising in the short term [13]. D. Iron Ore - The supply - side shipments are stable. Recently, steel mills have shown signs of gradual resumption of production, and hot metal is expected to remain at a high level. As the National Day approaches in the middle and late period, the start of restocking by steel mills may support raw materials. Technically, it is still in a high - level wide - range shock range, and a shock - based approach should be adopted [16][17]. E. Glass - Technically, it rebounded strongly today. The daily melting volume is basically stable, factory inventories have slightly declined, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is still insufficient. One should pay attention to the restocking situation approaching the peak season and continue to view it from a low - buying perspective [20][21]. F. Alumina - As of August, the weighted average full cost of China's alumina industry was 2,852.79 yuan per ton, an increase of about 7.85 yuan per ton from the previous month. With the "anti - involution" trend emerging and market sentiment improving, it should be treated with a volatile and upward - trending view [24]. G. Pulp - Today, the pulp price in Shandong remained stable, and port inventories started to slightly decline but remained at a medium - high level. Before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, there are expected positive factors for pulp, but there has been no improvement yet. A low - level shock view is maintained, and one can consider high - selling and low - buying within the range [27].