Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The subsequent trend of the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract will present a pattern of "short - term oscillation with long - term support." There are opportunities to go long on dips during the callback [3]. - The A - share market is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. For Shanghai Gold, it's advisable to buy on dips instead of chasing short - term highs. For iron ore, high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended. For glass, pay attention to the right - side trading opportunities after stabilization. For eggs, there are short - term long - taking opportunities. For pulp, it's recommended to consider shorting on rebounds [8][13][16][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Focus: Shanghai Silver 2512 - The contract's price rise was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the reverse market structure caused by spot shortages, and the safe - haven premium from geopolitical conflicts. The price pullback was because of profit - taking near the $53 mark and the weakening of safe - haven demand due to the cease - fire agreement [3]. - Long - term support is solid as green industries like photovoltaics drive industrial demand to increase by 20% annually, and the structural supply - demand gap may last until 2026. The continuation of the Fed's easing cycle and the low gold - silver ratio still attract institutional capital allocation [3][4]. - Key data to track include the Fed's October interest - rate meeting, London silver inventory, and industrial demand data. Consider going long on dips [3][5]. Technical Analysis: Stock Index Futures - The A - share market opened higher and closed lower today. The Shanghai Composite Index found support at 3850 points near the close. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [8]. Technical Analysis: Shanghai Gold - Shanghai Gold reached a new high with large intraday fluctuations. It's not advisable to chase long positions in the short term. Instead, consider buying on dips [13]. Technical Analysis: Iron Ore - In the short term, the supply side is affected by long - term agreement negotiations and accidents. In the long run, supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project. On the demand side, there has been no actual improvement at the terminal after the holiday, and molten iron production may decline periodically. Technically, it's in a high - level wide - range oscillation, so high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [16][17]. Technical Analysis: Glass - Daily melting volume has changed little, and inventory has accumulated during the holiday. The main future drivers are policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies, as well as supply - side clearance. Technically, after continuous declines, pay attention to the right - side trading opportunities after stabilization [20][21]. Technical Analysis: Eggs - The inventory of laying hens continues to increase, and egg supply is sufficient, which restricts price rebounds. However, based on current prices and costs, future egg - chicken farming is expected to incur a loss of $16.90 per chicken. There are short - term long - taking opportunities [23]. Technical Analysis: Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has declined today. China's cumulative pulp imports from January to September were 2706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Domestic port inventory remains high, and the "Golden September" peak season was lackluster. Pulp is expected to remain weak, and it's recommended to short on rebounds [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the cost - end crude oil price is continuously falling. The PTA futures follow the cost - end to fluctuate and decline. The PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate mainly affected by the cost - end in the short term [3]. - For MEG, starting from October, the supply - demand pattern is expected to shift to inventory accumulation, with continuous inventory - building pressure in the far - month. The market is under obvious pressure, and the short - term MEG market is expected to be weak [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents PTA - **Main Contract**: On October 14, the basis of the main contract TA2601 was - 75 yuan/ton, down - 4 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market price in East China was 4400 yuan/ton, down - 40 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end crude oil price is continuously falling. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 76.46%, up 1.57% from the previous day. There are many overhauls and changes of devices under low processing fees recently. The PTA factory inventory days in the week are 4.22 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.47 days [3]. - **Main Force Movements**: The short - side main force increased positions [3]. - **Trend**: The PTA futures market opened low and moved low following the cost - end. The restart and load - reduction of PTA's own devices are concurrent, and the new production capacity is put into operation with a delay, currently having limited impact on the market. The spot basis is running weakly [3]. MEG - **Main Contract**: On October 14, the basis of the main contract eg2601 was 81 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market price in East China was 4142 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end crude oil price is continuously falling, and the coal price is stable. The MEG futures follow the cost - end to fluctuate and decline. The total MEG port inventory in East China is 44.51 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.08 tons [4]. - **Main Force Movements**: The short - side main force reduced positions [4]. - **Expectation**: Starting from October, the supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol is expected to shift to inventory accumulation, with continuous inventory - building pressure in the far - month. The market sentiment is under obvious pressure. Terminal foreign trade orders are still few, the profit margin of the domestic market is continuously narrowing, and the industry is under overall pressure [4].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Goldtrust Futures Daily, written by the Goldtrust Futures Research Institute on October 14, 2025 [1] - The core view is to provide investment analysis and suggestions for various futures products, including urea, stock index futures, gold, iron ore, glass, eggs, and pulp [4][7][11] Group 2: Urea Market Analysis - Urea 2601 contract's short - term rise is due to short - term factors. The current price increase lacks fundamental support and may face weakening pressure later [3][4] - In 2025, urea production capacity enters a growth cycle, with over 7 million tons of new capacity. Daily output is around 200,000 tons, and enterprise inventory reaches 1.2 million tons, showing a supply - exceeding - demand pattern [4] - The demand side is in the off - season. Agricultural fertilizer use in autumn is over, the compound fertilizer start - up rate drops to 38%, and industrial demand is weak. There will be no significant improvement in the fourth quarter [4] - In the short term, coal prices support fixed - bed urea costs close to the current price, gas - head enterprises are in the red. There is a potential for the start of off - season storage demand and possible loosening of export policies, so short - term long opportunities can be grasped [4] Group 3: Stock Index Futures Analysis - On Monday, the three major A - share indexes opened lower and moved higher. The STAR Market led the index to turn positive, the Shanghai Composite Index filled the gap, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index were relatively weak. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [7] Group 4: Gold Market Analysis - Both domestic and foreign gold markets reached new highs with large positive lines, but short - term chasing is not advisable. Low - buying and long - holding is recommended [11] Group 5: Iron Ore Market Analysis - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not improved, and hot metal production may decline. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [14] - In the short term, the supply side is affected by long - term agreement negotiations and accidents, but in the long run, supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project [15] Group 6: Glass Market Analysis - The supply side is undergoing clearance. Technically, after recent continuous declines, attention should be paid to the right - side trading opportunities after stabilization. The future driving force lies in policy - end stimulus and anti - involution policies [20] Group 7: Egg Market Analysis - The inventory of laying hens continues to increase, and egg supply is sufficient, suppressing price rebounds. However, based on current prices and costs, each laying hen is expected to lose 16.90 yuan in the future. Short - term long opportunities can be grasped [22] Group 8: Pulp Market Analysis - Today, the pulp price in Shandong has decreased. China's cumulative pulp imports from January to September are 2,706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Domestic port inventories remain high. The market is expected to be weak, and selling on rebounds is recommended [26]

Report Overview - **Report Name**: Jinxin Futures Paper Industry Daily - **Date**: October 13, 2025 - **Research Focus**: Double - offset paper and pulp futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The double - offset paper market has an obvious over - capacity pattern with low industry operating rate and mainly rigid - demand procurement. With pulp futures oscillating downward, it is recommended to short at high prices in the short term [3] - The pulp market has seen a decline in prices in Shandong, high cumulative imports from January to September, and high port inventories. The peak season was not prosperous, and it is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Double - offset Paper Futures Fundamental Analysis - **Market Situation**: The domestic double - offset paper price remained stable today with light market transactions. The industry operating rate is only 55%, and there will be new production capacity put into operation in 2025, showing an obvious over - capacity pattern. The demand side is mainly for rigid - demand procurement [3] - **Cost Factor**: The pulp futures are oscillating downward [3] - **Investment Suggestion**: Short at high prices in the short term [3] Pulp Futures Fundamental Analysis - **Market Situation**: The pulp price in Shandong decreased today. China's cumulative pulp imports from January to September were 2706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The domestic port inventory remained high, and the peak season in September was not prosperous [8] - **Investment Suggestion**: Short on rebounds [8] Main Force Trends - **Pulp**: The short - side main force reduced positions, which is bullish [11] - **Double - offset Paper**: The long - side main force increased positions, which is bullish [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In 2026, the decline in soda ash prices is mainly due to the continuous intensification of supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse, and prices may continue to oscillate weakly [3][4]. - For A - shares, the three major indices opened lower and closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing with a small negative line. The market is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level [8][9]. - For gold, the external gold price rose and then fell, and Shanghai gold adjusted accordingly. This adjustment is still benign, and it is advisable to buy on dips [12]. - For iron ore, the supply may be affected by long - term agreements and accidents in the short term, but there is an expectation of loose supply in the long term. The terminal situation has not improved after the holiday, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [15][16]. - For glass, the daily melting volume has little change, and inventory has accumulated during the holiday. The subsequent driving forces mainly lie in policy - end stimulus and anti - involution policies. Attention should be paid to the support near the integer mark [21]. - For soybean oil, affected by the strong rebound of external oils and fats during the holiday, the domestic oil market will have a catch - up increase after the holiday. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate and rebound following palm oil [23]. - For pulp, the price in Shandong remains stable. The export volume of major pulp - exporting countries has increased, and domestic port inventory remains high. It is recommended to short on rebounds [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash - Supply: The 2.8 - million - ton natural soda ash production capacity of Yuangxing Energy, the 700,000 - ton combined soda ash production capacity of Yuntu Yingcheng Xindu have been gradually released, and the 2 - million - ton production capacity of Hubei Jinjiang New Materials will be put into operation at the end of the year. The total new production capacity in the year reaches 5.5 million tons, and the total production capacity is approaching 47 million tons, with a year - on - year output increase of over 10%. As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.6598 million tons, a 3.74% increase from before the holiday [3]. - Demand: The demand for heavy soda ash is dragged down by the continuous decline in the demand for flat glass and the limited increase in soda ash consumption of photovoltaic glass. Although the demand for light soda ash is growing, the growth rate of its diverse downstream industries is limited, and the annual supply - demand gap of 4.5 million tons in the domestic market is difficult to digest [3]. A - shares - Market performance: The three major A - share indices opened lower and closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index almost turning positive in the morning but being suppressed by the continuous decline of the ChiNext and STAR Markets [9]. - Influencing factors: China's implementation of export controls on relevant items such as rare earths, super - hard materials, and lithium batteries, and the continuous farce of the US government shutdown [8]. - Market forecast: The market is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level [8]. Gold - Market performance: The external gold price rose and then fell, and Shanghai gold adjusted accordingly [12]. - Operation suggestion: This adjustment is still benign. As long as it does not break below the 5 - day moving average, it is considered strong, and it is advisable to buy on dips [12]. Iron Ore - Supply: In the short term, supply is affected by long - term agreement negotiations and accidents. In the long term, with the commissioning of the Simandou project, there is an expectation of loose supply [16]. - Demand: The terminal situation has not improved after the holiday, and molten iron production may decline periodically [15]. - Operation suggestion: The price is in a high - level wide - range oscillation range, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [15]. Glass - Supply and inventory: The daily melting volume has little change, and inventory has accumulated during the holiday [21]. - Driving forces: The subsequent driving forces mainly lie in policy - end stimulus and anti - involution policies [21]. - Technical analysis: The price rose and then fell today, and attention should be paid to the support near the integer mark [21]. Soybean Oil - Market influence: Affected by the strong rebound of external oils and fats during the holiday, the domestic oil market will have a catch - up increase after the holiday [23]. - Market trend: Indonesia's B50 plan will squeeze the export share of palm oil, increasing the premium of palm oil over soybean oil. The demand substitution effect between oils and fats is strong, and soybean oil is expected to oscillate and rebound following palm oil [23]. Pulp - Market performance: The pulp price in Shandong remains stable. The export volume of Brazilian pulp in September increased by 10% year - on - year, and domestic port inventory remains high. The "Golden September" peak season is not prosperous, and the pulp price oscillated and declined [26]. - Operation suggestion: It is recommended to short on rebounds [26].

Group 1: Pig Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Pigs remain in a state of strong supply and weak demand, maintaining a situation of "weak reality and strong expectation" in the short term [5][6]. Summary by Section - **Demand**: In September, demand was briefly boosted by the start of school and the double festivals, but downstream consumption showed no significant improvement, and the fresh - sales rate of slaughtering enterprises remained stable [5]. - **Supply**: Pig prices continued to decline this week. Farmers' panic selling persisted, and large - scale farms with high costs were in continuous losses, leading to a slight decrease in the average weight of pig slaughter [5]. - **Inventory**: It is expected that the inventory of commercial pigs in September will increase month - on - month due to the birth and sales of piglets six months ago and the postponed sales plans of some scale enterprises [5]. - **Profit**: The average national pig slaughter price this week was 12.59 yuan/kg, a new low in more than three years, and the daily price dropped by 10% compared to the beginning of the month. The losses of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets continued to worsen [5]. Group 2: Egg Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View This week, egg prices continued to fall, and it is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate and decline next week, with the average weekly price in the main production areas ranging from 2.90 - 3.00 yuan/jin [19][21]. Summary by Section - **Demand**: Before the festival, terminal demand weakened, and during the festival, although there was replenishment demand, it was difficult to support egg prices. After the festival, egg prices continued to decline [19]. - **Supply**: The total number of slaughtered chickens was 583,700, a 1.68% decrease from the previous week. The average slaughter age was 498 days, 2 days earlier than last week. Due to the decline in egg prices, farmers were more willing to cull chickens [19]. - **Inventory**: As of Thursday this week, the production - link inventory increased by 49.61% from last week, and the circulation - link inventory increased by 44.53% from last week due to transportation difficulties during the holiday [19]. - **Profit**: This week, the cost of egg - chicken farming was 3.45 yuan/jin, a 1.71% decrease from the previous week, and the farming profit was - 0.30 yuan/jin, a 400% decrease from the previous week [20]. Group 3: Soybean Meal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The end of October will be an important window for the trade relationship. If the tariff situation does not ease, the price of US soybeans is not optimistic. In the long run, if the relationship between China and the US does not change substantially, the price of soybean meal is expected to rise further, but the upside space is limited [34][35]. Summary by Section - **Demand**: In September, the spot market of soybean meal was under pressure, and the traditional holiday stocking demand was far less than in previous years. The monthly trading volume decreased by more than 30% compared to August [34]. - **Supply**: In September 2025, the estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills was about 9.945 million tons, and in October, it was estimated to be about 9.49 million tons. The estimated soybean crushing volume was 9.4168 million tons, an increase of 1.4638 million tons compared to the same period in 2024. The supply of soybean meal was loose [34]. - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the dynamic full - sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, a 19.65% month - on - month increase [34]. - **Profit**: The profit of importing and crushing soybeans in September continued to deteriorate compared to August. As of September 30, the near - month crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans was - 14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton compared to August 29 [34]. Group 4: Palm Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View During the holidays, there were many positive news from palm oil producing areas, and domestic buyers made a large number of purchases. In the short term, palm oil is expected to fluctuate and strengthen, but the near - month supply is expected to be loose, and the basis price is under pressure [47]. Summary by Section - **Demand**: Indonesia's active promotion of the B50 biodiesel plan boosted market confidence and the expected future demand for palm oil [47]. - **Supply**: From September 1 - 20, the production of crude palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month, and it will enter the production - reduction season in November, with a large price - support space [47]. - **Inventory**: As of October 9, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 552,200 tons, the same as last week, and a 9.16% increase compared to the same period last year [47]. - **Profit**: As of October 9, the FOB price of palm oil for October shipments was 1,098 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars/ton from last week. The import cost was 9,640 yuan/ton, an increase of 260 yuan/ton, and the hedging profit was - 82 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton from last week [47]. Group 5: Cotton Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The downstream performance during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season was lower than expected, and there is currently no significant driving force on both the supply and demand sides to push up cotton prices [59]. Summary by Section - **Demand**: As of October 9, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises was 65.4%, a 1.80% decrease from last week. During the holiday, orders were limited, and some textile enterprises reduced their operating loads or shut down [60]. - **Supply**: As of October 9, 2025, the operating rate of cotton ginning factories nationwide increased to 14.85%, a 4.8% increase from last week. The picking progress in northern Xinjiang accelerated, while in southern Xinjiang, it was about 20%. The acquisition of local cotton in some areas was difficult due to rain [60]. - **Inventory**: In the week of October 9, the cotton inventory of mainstream textile enterprises was equivalent to 27.15 days. The downstream and terminal showed weak purchasing willingness [60]. - **Profit**: In the 2025/26 season, the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton was 6.11 yuan/kg. The estimated profit of Xinjiang 400 - type ginning factories was 611 yuan/ton, a decrease of 376 yuan/ton compared to before the festival [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, supply changes are expected to be the dominant factor for prices, and demand lacks significant growth drivers. OPEC+ will maintain a 137,000 barrels per day production increase in November, which is lower than market expectations. Geopolitical risk premiums have eased, and long - term oil prices are expected to be under pressure, with Brent oil prices likely to oscillate between $60 - 75 per barrel [4]. - For PX & PTA, the PX device operating rate remains high, but downstream maintenance increases and the supply - demand balance weakens. PTA processing margins have dropped, and it is expected to follow cost fluctuations. [4] - For MEG, after the holiday, the operating rate and port inventory have increased, and the supply - demand pattern has shifted to inventory accumulation. The market is expected to be weak in the short term [5]. - For BZ & EB, the pure benzene operating rate has slightly declined but remains high. The demand for downstream products is expected to recover, but the market is affected by new device launches. Short - term prices are expected to follow the weak oscillation of crude oil. The supply of styrene is expected to increase, and with high inventories and poor terminal demand, it is expected to be in a weak oscillation [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply changes are expected to dominate prices, and demand lacks significant growth drivers. OPEC+ will maintain a 137,000 barrels per day production increase in November, lower than market expectations. Geopolitical risk premiums have eased, and long - term oil prices are expected to be under pressure, with Brent oil prices likely to oscillate between $60 - 75 per barrel [4]. PX & PTA - PX device operating rate remains high, but downstream maintenance increases and the supply - demand balance weakens. PXN is expected to be weak. PTA device changes are frequent, processing margins have dropped to around 165 yuan/ton, and it is expected to follow cost fluctuations [4]. - Domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization is 88.23%, up 0.34% from last week. Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization is 76.97% (+0.19%). PX - naphtha spread remains around $220 per ton. Some PX devices have restarted or are under maintenance. PXN is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the commissioning time of a 3 million - ton new capacity in the fourth quarter [8]. - PTA spot price is 4,500 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton from last week. The futures basis of the main contract is - 63 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from last week. Weekly average capacity utilization is 77.84%, up 0.35% from last week. After new device commissioning in October, supply pressure remains, and it is expected to follow cost fluctuations [14]. MEG - After the holiday, the MEG operating rate has recovered, and East China port inventory has significantly increased. The supply - demand pattern has shifted to inventory accumulation, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [5]. - The market price of ethylene glycol this week is 4,214 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton from last week. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization is 70.01%, up 3.27% from last week. The port inventory has increased to 443,100 tons, up 42,800 tons from last week. The futures price has declined, and the market is weak [19]. BZ & EB - The pure benzene operating rate has slightly declined to 78.35% but remains high. The demand for downstream products is expected to recover, but the market is affected by new device launches. Short - term prices are expected to follow the weak oscillation of crude oil. The supply of styrene is expected to increase, and with high inventories and poor terminal demand, it is expected to be in a weak oscillation [5]. - This week, the pure benzene operating rate is 79.29%, up 0.55% from last week; the styrene operating rate is 71.24%, down 2.37% from last week. The downstream S - product comprehensive operating rate is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The short - term fundamentals have limited improvement, and it is expected to be in a weak oscillation [32]. Polyester Industry - This week, the average weekly capacity utilization of the domestic polyester industry is 87.8%, up 0.89% from last week. The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 64.06%, up 0.94% from the previous period. The average number of terminal weaving order days is 14.29 days, down 1.71 days from last week. Factory inventories have increased, and the industry is under pressure [26].

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/10/10 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 豆油价格上涨的底层逻辑 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2026年10月豆油价格上涨，是全球供需格局重塑与能源政策驱动共振的结果。核心推手在于生物燃料需求 的爆发式增长，美国EPA将2026年生物柴油掺混义务量提至56.1亿加仑，较2025年激增67%，且通过限制 进口燃料信用价值强制绑定本土豆油原料，直接催生美豆供应缺口。 供应端的紧张进一步放大涨势，2025/26年度美国大豆增产不足500万吨，远难匹配生柴需求带来的千万 吨级用量增量。同时，印尼B50生物柴油计划锁定大量棕榈油资源，其出口或降20%以上，引发植物油替 代需求向豆油转移。 尽管阿根廷曾短期取消出口税带来利空，但全球油脂能源化趋势不可逆，叠加印度等国进口需求攀升，供 需矛盾持续支撑价格中枢上移。 后续需关注小型炼油厂豁免政策落地情况，这将成为行情强弱的关键变量。把握多的机会。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous rise in the price of Shanghai silver futures is the result of the combined effects of macro - expectations, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. In the short term, there are risks, but in the long - term, the continuation of the interest - rate cut cycle and the growth of green energy demand will support the silver price [3]. - For stock index futures, it is expected that the pre - holiday market will continue to fluctuate at a high level [6]. - For gold, considering the long holiday, it is recommended to close long positions to avoid risks [10]. - For iron ore, the supply is stable, the steel mills are gradually resuming production, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high in the high - level wide - range oscillation [13][14]. - For glass, it is in an oscillatory upward trend, and a low - buying strategy can be maintained [18]. - For soybean oil, high inventory restricts the price increase space, and it should be treated with a bearish view in oscillation [22]. - For pulp, it is expected to be boosted before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but there is no improvement yet. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the low - level oscillation [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Shanghai Silver Futures - The price of Shanghai silver futures' main contract closed at 10,939 yuan/kg on September 29, with a single - day increase of 3.92%, reaching a phased high [3]. - Macro factors: The dovish speech of the new Fed governor supports a 150 - basis - point interest rate cut this year, and the market expects interest rate cuts in the next two meetings, reducing the cost of holding silver. Geopolitical tensions in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East lead to the continuous inflow of safe - haven funds into the precious metals market [3]. - Fundamental factors: In 2025, the global silver supply - demand gap is expected to reach 3,659 tons, with a continuous shortage for five years. The significant increase in photovoltaic installed capacity drives the surge in industrial silver demand, and as 70% of silver is produced as a by - product of copper, lead, and zinc, production expansion is restricted [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures closed with a mid -阳线. The 2024 pension fund investment report shows stable operation, and the Politburo meeting aims to promote sustainable economic development. The pre - holiday market is expected to continue high - level oscillation [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold and silver are accelerating their upward movement, but due to the long holiday, it is recommended to close long positions [10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The supply is stable, steel mills are gradually resuming production, and the molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. Near the National Day, steel mills start to replenish inventory. Technically, it closed with a negative line today but is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, suitable for high - selling and low - buying [13][14]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Technically, it is in an oscillatory upward trend. The daily melting is basically stable, the factory inventory is decreasing, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. A low - buying strategy can be maintained [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - On September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. High inventory restricts the price increase space [22]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong is stable, the port inventory starts to decline slightly, remaining at a medium - high level. There is an expected boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement is seen yet. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the low - level oscillation [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The continuous rise in the price of Shanghai Silver futures is the result of the combined effects of macro - expectations, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. In the short - term, there are risks, but in the long - term, the silver price is expected to be supported [3]. - The stock index futures market is expected to experience a small - scale oscillatory recovery next week [5]. - The gold market can continue to be bullish as the market starts to trade the October interest - rate cut expectation [10]. - For iron ore, one can conduct high - selling and low - buying operations as it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation [13]. - For glass, a low - buying strategy can be maintained as it is in an oscillatory upward trend [18]. - The soybean oil market should be treated with a bearish view due to high inventories [22]. - For pulp, a high - selling and low - buying strategy within the range can be considered as it is in a low - level oscillation [25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Focus (Shanghai Silver Futures) - The price of the main contract of Shanghai Silver futures closed at 10,632 yuan/kg on September 26, with a single - day increase of 2.27% and a trading volume close to one million lots [3]. - Macro factors: The dovish speech of the new Fed governor supports a 150 - basis - point interest - rate cut this year, and market expectations of interest - rate cuts in the next two meetings reduce the cost of holding silver. Geopolitical tensions drive safe - haven funds into the precious metals market [3]. - Fundamental factors: The global silver supply - demand gap in 2025 is expected to reach 3,659 tons, with a continuous shortage for five years. The surge in industrial silver demand driven by photovoltaic installations and limited production expansion due to by - product output exacerbate the shortage [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a small negative line. The basic endowment insurance fund has achieved positive returns for 8 consecutive years, with an average annual investment return rate of 5.15%. US chip stocks were heavily sold [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold - After a three - day adjustment, gold showed a strong upward trend and reached a new high, so it can continue to be bullish [10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Supply is stable, steel mills are gradually resuming production, and iron - water output is expected to remain high. Steel mills are replenishing stocks before the National Day. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation [13][14]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Daily melting is basically stable, factory inventories are decreasing, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. Technically, it is in an oscillatory upward trend [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - On September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. High inventories suppress price increases [22]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong is stable, port inventories are slightly decreasing, and it is in a low - level oscillation. One can consider high - selling and low - buying within the range [25].