1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 1, 2025, the rise in gold prices was due to multiple factors. The dollar index dropped to its lowest since February 2022, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia - Ukraine conflict increased market risk - aversion. However, the upcoming release of US June non - farm payroll data on Thursday could potentially suppress gold prices. So, it is recommended to try long positions with a light position [3][4]. - For A - shares, the three major indices opened lower and closed higher. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate and rise, as the tariff war is nearing its end [7][8]. - For gold in the long - term, the overall direction is still bullish, though it is currently undergoing adjustments due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduced expectation of rate cuts this year [12]. - For iron ore, supply has increased month - on - month, iron - water production has weakened seasonally, and ports are back in a state of inventory accumulation. Technically, it should be regarded as oscillating with a downward bias [15][16]. - For glass, it still awaits the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Technically, it should be considered as oscillating with a downward bias [20][21]. - For soybean oil, due to the long - term expectations of US biofuel policies and the uncertain Middle - East situation, short - term oil prices may oscillate or be strong. But considering the mid - term seasonal increase in production and inventory, when the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8050 - 8000, short positions with a light position are recommended [24]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Market environment factors such as the drop in the dollar index and the decline in the 10 - year US Treasury yield, along with geopolitical tensions, led to the rise in gold prices on July 1, 2025. But the upcoming US non - farm payroll data may affect gold prices. It is advisable to try long positions with a light position [3][4]. - In the long - term, the overall trend of gold is bullish. Although it has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, it is likely to restart its upward trend after adjusting to an important support level [11][12]. 3.2 A - shares - The A - share market had a trend of opening lower and closing higher. With the tariff war approaching its end, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate and rise [7][8]. 3.3 Iron Ore - Supply has increased month - on - month, iron - water production has weakened seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory. Technically, it is showing a downward - biased oscillation [15][16]. 3.4 Glass - The supply side has not seen significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream demand is weak. It awaits real - estate stimulus or major policies. Technically, it is in a downward - biased oscillation [20][21]. 3.5 Soybean Oil - Due to long - term US biofuel policy expectations and the uncertain Middle - East situation, short - term oil prices may oscillate or be strong. But considering mid - term seasonal production and inventory increases, short positions with a light position are recommended when the price reaches 8050 - 8000 [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, with a high risk of chasing the upward trend. Short - selling at high levels can be attempted [3][4] - The A - share market is expected to continue to rise in a volatile manner this week [7] - Gold is still bullish in the long - term, and it is likely to restart the upward trend after adjusting to an important support level [11][12] - Iron ore should be viewed with an oscillatory mindset. The over - valuation risk is increased due to weak reality [15][16] - Glass should be viewed with an oscillatory mindset, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [18][19] - Soybean oil is expected to oscillate or strengthen in the short term but is in a mid - term seasonal production and inventory increase period. Short - selling at a light position can be considered when the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8050 - 8000 [21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Recently, cotton futures have risen for five consecutive days. On June 30, the morning session was strong with a nearly 1% increase, but the price turned down near the close [3] - From the supply side, there is an expected increase in global cotton production, the old - crop inventory is being depleted rapidly and at a low level, and the expected additional sliding - scale quota may be small, leading to an expectation of tight inventory at the end of the year [3] - From the demand side, although there were positive signs in China's textile and clothing exports in May, commercial inventory is decreasing, and there is rigid restocking demand, the overall demand is sluggish [3] - The cooling of the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the weakening of the external market, and the decline in international crude oil prices have increased the substitution cost of chemical fibers, dragging down cotton prices [3] A - share Market - On Monday this week, the three major A - share indices opened lower and closed higher with a mid -阳线. The June manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, better than expected, which is further positive for A - shares [7][8] Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates in the meeting has reduced the expectation of an interest - rate cut this year, causing gold to adjust. However, the long - term bullish trend remains unchanged [12] Iron Ore - Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and port inventory has started to accumulate again. The weak reality has increased the over - valuation risk of iron ore [16] Glass - There has been no significant cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventory remains high, the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak, and demand has not increased significantly [19] Soybean Oil - Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain situation in the Middle East, soybean oil is expected to oscillate or strengthen in the short term. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and it is in a mid - term seasonal production and inventory increase period [21]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On June 27, 2025, the coking coal price continued to rise. The price increase was due to multiple factors including supply - side constraints, demand - side expectations, futures market factors, and capital inflows. However, high inventory levels suppressed the price rebound space [3][4][5] - The A - share market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards as the NDRC released positive policies and data [8][9] - Gold is expected to reach a new high in the long - term despite a short - term adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates. Investors can buy in batches at low prices [12][13] - Iron ore is considered to be in a wide - range oscillation with a slightly stronger trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits, industry repair status, and the over - valuation risk caused by weak market conditions [16][17] - Glass is in a narrow - range consolidation, and an uptrend depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy announcements [19][20] - Short - term soybean oil prices may fluctuate or strengthen due to the US biodiesel policy and the Middle - East situation. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8150 - 8100, short - selling with a light position is recommended [23] Group 3: Summaries by Directory Coking Coal - Supply - side factors: In June (the "Safety Production Month"), major coking coal - producing provinces like Shanxi strengthened production restrictions after safety accidents. The upcoming implementation of the new "Mineral Resources Law" on July 1 may force out backward production capacity. Some coal prices are close to cash costs, pressuring private mines to cut production [4] - Demand - side factors: Although the current terminal is in a seasonal off - peak, there is an expected increase in demand during the traditional coking coal peak season from April to October as steel mills may replenish stocks. More macro - policies to stabilize the economy and promote infrastructure could also boost demand [4] - Futures and capital factors: Coking coal futures have been falling since 2025, with a strong need for correction. Some short - position funds took profits and reduced positions, and the net long positions of the top 20 seats increased [5] - Inventory factor: The inventory of imported coking coal at ports and the total inventory are at a three - year high, and the frequent auction failures of Mongolian coal have led to inventory backlogs, suppressing price rebounds [5] A - share Market - Market trend: The three major A - share indexes showed a pattern of rising and then falling, closing with small shrinking - volume negative lines. The market is in a shrinking - volume adjustment state [9] - Policy influence: The NDRC released positive policies and data at a regular press conference, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [8][9] Gold - Market situation: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a short - term adjustment in the gold market [13] - Outlook: The long - term trend of gold is still bullish, and it is expected to reach a new high. Investors can buy in batches at low prices [12][13] Iron Ore - Market fundamentals: Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and port inventories have started to accumulate again. The weak market conditions have increased the risk of over - valuation [17] - Technical analysis: The market closed with a large positive line today but remains within a wide - range oscillation, showing a slightly stronger trend [16] Glass - Supply - demand situation: There has been no significant cold - repair of production lines due to losses on the supply side, factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders lack the motivation to replenish stocks, resulting in a lack of continuous demand growth [20] - Technical analysis: The market is in a narrow - range consolidation, and an uptrend depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy announcements [19] Soybean Oil - Market factors: The long - term expectations of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation may cause short - term price fluctuations or strengthen the market. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and there will be a seasonal increase in production and inventory in the medium - term [23] - Trading strategy: When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8150 - 8100, short - selling with a light position is recommended [23]

GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/06/27 在需求端，虽然当前终端处于季节性淡季，钢材价格震荡运行，焦炭第四轮提降落地后焦企利润走差， 采购焦煤积极性不高，仅维持刚性需求。但4 - 10月是焦煤传统旺季，钢厂有补库预期，对焦煤需求可 能增加。并且，若后续有更多稳经济、促基建等宏观政策出台，将带动钢铁需求，进而增加对焦煤的采 购需求 。 此外，2025年以来焦煤期货持续下跌，存在强烈的修复需求，引发反弹。部分空头资金获利了结，空头 减仓行为助推价格上涨，且前20席位净多持仓增加，海通期货等机构增仓多头，资金推动也是焦煤价格 上涨的因素之一。不过，港口进口焦煤库存及总库存仍处近3年高位，蒙煤竞拍流拍常态化，库存积压， 一定程度上压制了价格反弹空间。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 6月26日焦煤价格上涨：原因与展望 2025年6月26日，焦煤价格上涨引发市场关注。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - On June 24, 2025, the urea price skyrocketed, becoming the focus of the agricultural materials market. The price had previously been on a downward trend, but reversed on June 16. International market disturbances, approaching corn top - dressing season, and the futures market's pull effect contributed to the price increase. However, supply - side pressure remains, and attention should be paid to agricultural demand and raw material coal prices. Traders and farmers should avoid blind chasing and focus on the 1800 - 1850 pressure zone [3]. - After the Israel - Iran cease - fire, the policy environment is favorable. The stock index futures market is expected to continue to rise in a volatile manner [7]. - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has led to an adjustment in the gold market, but the long - term upward trend remains. Investors can buy in batches at low prices [11][12]. - For iron ore, supply has increased month - on - month, iron water production has weakened seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory again. The risk of over - valuation is high. Technically, attention should be paid to the important support below, and it should be viewed as a volatile market [14][15]. - For glass, the supply side has not seen significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream demand is not strong. It is expected to be a volatile market until the real - estate stimulus effect appears or major policies are introduced [18][19]. - For soybean oil, due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation, the short - term trend of the oil market may be strong. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and there will be seasonal production and inventory increases in the medium - term. When the price reaches the 8000 - 8100 pressure zone, short - selling with a light position is recommended [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Market - Price trend: Previously, the mainstream regional ex - factory price of urea fell below 1700 yuan/ton, and the low - end ex - factory quotes in Shanxi and Shaanxi dropped to around 1620 yuan/ton. On June 16, the price reversed, with main - producing area enterprises raising prices by 30 - 60 yuan/ton, and some enterprises in Shandong adjusting prices three times a day [3]. - Reasons for price increase: International market disturbances, approaching corn top - dressing season leading to increased agricultural demand, and the pull effect of the futures market [3]. - Future outlook: Supply - side pressure remains, and attention should be paid to agricultural demand and raw material coal prices [3]. Stock Index Futures - Fundamental situation: After the Israel - Iran cease - fire, the policy environment is favorable [7]. - Market trend: Expected to continue to rise in a volatile manner [7]. Gold - Market situation: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has led to an adjustment, but the long - term upward trend remains [12]. - Investment strategy: Buy in batches at low prices [11]. Iron Ore - Market situation: Supply has increased month - on - month, iron water production has weakened seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory again, increasing the risk of over - valuation [15]. - Technical analysis: Attention should be paid to the important support below, and it should be viewed as a volatile market [14]. Glass - Market situation: The supply side has not seen significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream demand is not strong [19]. - Future outlook: Expected to be a volatile market until the real - estate stimulus effect appears or major policies are introduced [18]. Soybean Oil - Market situation: Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation, the short - term trend may be strong. The current supply - demand situation is not tight, and there will be seasonal production and inventory increases in the medium - term [21]. - Investment strategy: When the price reaches the 8000 - 8100 pressure zone, short - selling with a light position is recommended [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - A-share market is driven by "economic recovery + interest rate decline + deposit relocation", and the breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points marks the opening of a new upward space. The A-share "bull market" has shifted from expectation to reality, and investors can focus on the opportunity to go long on stock index futures on dips [2][24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - As of June 25, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through and closed above the key level of 3450 points, with three consecutive days of stable gains. Other indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also rose in tandem. The trading volume of the two markets increased significantly, showing a healthy "volume-price increase" technical pattern, opening up upward space for the second-half market [3]. Economic Situation - In 2025, China's economy continued the recovery trend since the fourth quarter of last year. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 5.4%, significantly higher than 4.8% in the fourth quarter of last year [4]. - The new quality productivity-related industries improved notably, laying a solid foundation for further economic recovery. Policy-driven consumption played a key role, with durable goods like cars and home appliances directly benefiting from dual subsidies from the central and local governments. During the "618" promotion period, sales data in new consumption areas such as beauty, small home appliances, and pet economy exceeded expectations, indicating the accumulation of domestic demand resilience [6]. Policy Environment - Fiscal policy: In 2025, the deficit rate is expected to further increase, and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will continue to be issued, with funds mainly invested in hard technology and people's livelihood areas. The focus of fiscal efforts is shifting from traditional infrastructure to promoting domestic demand [7]. - Monetary policy: The central bank has set the tone of "choosing the right time to cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and "maintaining ample liquidity". In 2025, policy interest rates and the deposit reserve ratio are expected to be further lowered [7]. - Real estate policy: Real estate policies have shifted from "protecting projects" to "protecting real estate enterprises", and a storage model is being explored to stabilize housing prices [7]. - Capital market policy: The "New Nine - Article Guidelines" for the capital market promotes investment - side reforms, aiming to improve shareholder returns and encourage mergers and acquisitions, providing institutional guarantees for the entry of medium - and long - term funds [7]. Corporate Earnings - After the profit adjustment in 2024, A - share corporate profits are expected to recover in 2025. In April 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China turned positive year - on - year, reaching 1.5%. Most institutions predict that the profit growth rate of the entire A - share market will show an inflection point of improvement around mid - 2025, with an annual growth rate expected to reach 6.5%. Emerging industries may become the main force for profit growth [8][10]. Global Environment - The Fed is still in an interest rate cut cycle in 2025, which will have a positive impact on the Chinese stock market. Historically, Fed rate cuts tend to reduce the attractiveness of the US dollar, prompting international funds to flow from US dollar assets to emerging markets. The appreciation trend of the RMB exchange rate further enhances the attractiveness of A - shares to foreign capital [13]. Interest Rate Environment - China's monetary policy is in a loose cycle, and the decline in interest rates directly reduces corporate financing costs, which is particularly beneficial to high - leverage industries (such as real estate and infrastructure) and R & D - intensive technology companies. Historical data shows that in the middle and late stages of interest rate decline, the stock market rally often lasts for more than 4 months [14]. Market Liquidity - The current A - share liquidity shows a triple - support pattern: foreign capital is flowing back, with recent net inflows into the Chinese stock market hitting a new high; the investment ratio limit of insurance funds in equities has been increased by 5%, and it is expected that social security, insurance, and annuities will net buy more than 200 billion yuan of A - shares in 2025; leveraged funds are active, indicating a significant increase in on - site risk appetite [17]. Resident Savings - In March 2025, China's household deposits exceeded 160 trillion yuan, with per capita deposits reaching 107,000 yuan, significantly higher than the GDP of 135 trillion yuan. Households hold about 40 trillion yuan in excess savings. With the continuous decline in deposit interest rates, this part of the funds faces a strong need for re - allocation [18]. - The transfer of household savings to the capital market has become an irreversible trend. Recently, the one - year fixed - deposit rate has dropped to around 1.5%, while the dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index has risen to 3.2%, and the average dividend yield of the constituent stocks of the dividend index exceeds 5%. The relative attractiveness of equity assets is prominent [21].

Report Title - The report title is "GOLDTRUST FUTURES Daily" [1][2] Report Date - The report date is June 25, 2025 [1] Core Views - For soybean oil futures, prices have continued to plummet recently. With sufficient soybean supply, increased oil production, reduced demand, and negative macro - factors, investors can take profit on long positions and seize short - selling opportunities at high levels. In the short - term, soybean oil may fluctuate or be strong, but it is in a mid - term seasonal production and inventory increase phase. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8280 - 8300, take profit on long positions and short with a light position [3][4][21] - For crude oil, after Iran and Israel announced a cease - fire, oil prices dropped significantly, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [8] - For A - shares, the three major A - share indices rose sharply in the morning and closed with a mid -阳线, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high in the current rebound [9] - For gold, although there is an adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and reduced expectations of rate cuts this year, the long - term trend is still upward, and investors can buy in batches at low levels [12][13] - For iron ore, supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory again. There is a risk of over - valuation, and the market should be viewed with a focus on the important support below [15][16] - For glass, the supply side has not seen major losses and cold repairs, factory inventories are high, downstream demand is weak, and it is necessary to wait for the effect of real estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Technically, it rebounded slightly today and should be viewed with a volatile mindset [19][20] Industry Analysis Soybean Oil - **Supply**: In June 2025, the estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills is 162.5 ships, about 10.5625 million tons, and the arrival volume in July and August will also be high. Sufficient soybean supply has led to an increase in oil mill crushing volume and a significant increase in soybean oil output [4] - **Demand**: As the weather gets hotter, the consumption of edible oils enters the off - season, and market demand weakens seasonally. Substitute oils such as palm oil and rapeseed oil also compete for market share, further reducing soybean oil demand [4] - **Macro - factors**: Global economic growth uncertainty has pressured the commodity market. The extension of the US EPA's review of the renewable diesel quota policy and market rumors of lower - than - expected blending targets have led to the withdrawal of speculative funds, causing a sharp decline in CBOT soybean oil futures and negatively affecting the domestic market [4] Crude Oil - **Event Impact**: The cease - fire announcement between Iran and Israel has led to a significant drop in oil prices, but the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [8] A - shares - **Market Performance**: The three major A - share indices rose sharply in the morning and closed with a mid -阳线, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high in the current rebound [9] Gold - **Policy Impact**: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and reduced expectations of rate cuts this year have caused an adjustment in the gold market, but the long - term trend is still upward [13] Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory again, increasing the risk of over - valuation [16] - **Technical View**: Attention should be paid to the important support below, and the market should be viewed with a volatile mindset [15] Glass - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has not seen major losses and cold repairs, factory inventories are high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak replenishment motivation, resulting in weak demand. It is necessary to wait for the effect of real estate stimulus or major policy announcements [19][20] - **Technical View**: It rebounded slightly today and should be viewed with a volatile mindset [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 23, 2025, the soybean oil price plummeted. Investors are advised to take profits on long positions and seize short - selling opportunities at high levels [3][5]. - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillations. Gold is expected to reach new highs in the long - term, and investors can buy in batches at low levels. Iron ore, glass, and soybean oil are expected to be volatile, and specific trading strategies are provided for each [8][12][15][19][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - Supply: In June 2025, the estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills is 162.5 ships, about 10.5625 million tons, and the arrival volume in July and August will also be high. Sufficient soybean supply increases the oil mill's pressing volume and soybean oil output, intensifying the oversupply situation [4]. - Demand: As the weather gets hotter, the consumption of oils and fats enters the off - season, and the demand weakens seasonally. Substitute products such as palm oil and rapeseed oil may seize market share [4]. - Macro and Policy: Uncertain global economic growth pressures the commodity market. The extension of the US EPA's review of the renewable diesel quota policy and rumors of lower - than - expected blending targets lead to the withdrawal of speculative funds, causing a decline in CBOT soybean oil futures and negatively affecting the domestic market [4]. - Trading Strategy: In the short - term, due to the uncertain US biodiesel policy and the Middle East situation, the oil market may be volatile or strong. But in the medium - term, it is in the season of production and inventory increase. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8280 - 8300, take profits on long positions and short with a light position [22]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: At the beginning of this week, the three major A - share indexes opened low and closed high with a mid -阳线, and the CSI 1000 had the best increase [9]. - Operation: The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [8]. Gold - Market Factors: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduces the expectation of an interest rate cut this year, causing an adjustment in the gold price. But the long - term trend is still upward [13]. - Operation: Buy in batches at low levels [12]. Iron Ore - Market Situation: Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and port inventories are rising again. The over - valuation risk of iron ore is increasing, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits [16]. - Operation: Pay attention to the important support below and view it with an oscillatory perspective [15]. Glass - Market Situation: There is no significant cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventories are still high, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak, so demand has not increased significantly [20]. - Operation: Wait for the effect of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy announcements. View it with an oscillatory perspective [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report believes that silver has entered a strong upward channel in price, and it is expected to break through 10,000 yuan/kg in Q3 2025. Despite short - term technical corrections due to factors like the Fed's hawkish stance and high inventory pressure, the rigid supply - demand gap and the momentum for gold - silver ratio repair remain unchanged. Investors are advised to build long positions in batches on dips to await the dual catalysts of macro - impacts and supply - demand gaps in the second half of the year [2][3][25]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Environment - The global monetary easing cycle continues. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, with a more than 50% probability in July and a 52% probability in September. The actual interest rate is on a downward trend, which will significantly reduce the opportunity cost of holding silver. China has released liquidity through MLF and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the ECB has cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, with further cuts likely. Historically, silver has usually outperformed gold during interest - rate decline periods [3][4][5]. - Geopolitical risks are escalating. In the Middle East, the US military's air - strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and the threat of a larger - scale attack, along with the discussion of closing the Hormuz Strait by Iran, will push up inflation and risk - aversion premiums. The continuation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the intensification of global trade frictions have increased the VIX panic index by 15% compared to 2023, leading to a shift of funds from risky assets to precious metals. Silver has a more prominent risk - aversion elasticity [9][10]. - The global "de - dollarization" process is accelerating. Central banks' silver - buying trend continues, with a 1230 - ton purchase in 2024 (18% year - on - year increase). The US stable - coin bill exposes the internal contradictions of the US monetary system, and emerging markets are diversifying their foreign - exchange reserves by increasing precious - metal holdings, including silver [12]. 2. Supply - Demand Pattern - Supply growth is weak. Global silver production decreased by 2% in 2024. The supply is constrained by factors such as the scarcity of silver mines and recycling bottlenecks. In 2025, the global silver supply gap is expected to reach 117.6 million ounces (about 3659 tons), marking the fifth consecutive year of shortage [3][15]. - Demand is expanding. The recovery of the global semiconductor industry and the acceleration of 5G base - station construction have increased the demand for industrial silver. The demand for silver coins and bars is expected to grow by more than 7% in 2025 [17]. 3. Financial Attribute - The current gold - silver ratio is as high as 94, far exceeding the historical average range of 60 - 80. Historically, after the gold - silver ratio exceeded 80, it was usually repaired through the accelerated rise of silver. If the ratio returns to 80, based on the current COMEX gold price of $3400/ounce, the corresponding silver price would be $42.5/ounce, equivalent to over 10,000 yuan/kg in the domestic market [3][18][20]. - The historical performance of silver shows that in 2011, it once exceeded $35/ounce and then reached $49.5/ounce in less than two months. Recently, it has broken through $35/ounce again, indicating that a bull - market rally can be expected [22].

1. Core View on Urea - On June 20, 2025, the urea price plummeted due to multiple factors [3] - The domestic urea production capacity has been continuously expanding, with an expected new capacity (including replacement) of 6.6 million tons/year in 2025. The total production capacity may exceed 75 million tons/year by the end of the year, with a stable daily output of over 200,000 tons and an operating rate of around 87% [4] - The demand is weak. In agriculture, during the summer top - dressing season, grass - roots procurement is cautious, and the procurement volume is only 70% of previous years. Industrial demand is also poor, with the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises dropping significantly to around 37% [4] - As of June 11, the national urea enterprise inventory reached 1.1771 million tons, an increase of 141,700 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 13.7%. Urea exports are strictly controlled, and the port - gathering speed is slow, with an export expectation of less than 2 million tons this year, which is difficult to relieve the domestic inventory pressure [5] - The decline in raw material coal prices weakens the cost support, and the production costs of coal - based and gas - based enterprises have decreased simultaneously, giving enterprises more room to cut prices [5] 2. Technical Analysis of Different Futures 2.1 Stock Index Futures - Rumors that Trump will decide whether to attack Iran within two weeks have led to a decline in international oil prices. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate next week [8] 2.2 Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates in the meeting has reduced the expectation of an interest rate cut this year, causing an adjustment in gold prices. However, the general upward trend remains unchanged, and it is only a matter of time to reach a new high. A low - buying strategy is recommended [12][13] 2.3 Iron Ore - The supply has increased month - on - month, the pig iron output has weakened seasonally, and the ports have returned to inventory accumulation. The weak reality has increased the over - valuation risk of iron ore. Technically, pay attention to the important support below and view it with a fluctuating perspective [15][16] 2.4 Glass - The supply side has not experienced a major loss - induced cold repair situation, the factory inventory is still at a high level, the downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation, and the demand has not continued to increase significantly. It still depends on the effect of real - estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Technically, it rebounded slightly today, and a fluctuating view is adopted [19][20] 2.5 Soybean Oil - Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle East situation, the short - term trend of oils and fats may be fluctuating or slightly stronger. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and it is in the period of medium - term seasonal production and inventory increase. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8280 - 8300, take profit on long positions and take short positions with a light position [21]