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金信期货日刊-20250723
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 01:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - On July 22, 2025, the domestic commodity futures market witnessed a significant event as the main contracts of glass, soda ash, and coking coal reached their daily limit up, attracting extensive market attention. In the short - term, these varieties may maintain their strength [3]. - The A - share market's three major indices opened higher and closed with a mid -阳线. The coal market was further stimulated by the "anti - involution" in the coal industry, and the main uptrend of the market continued to move upwards in a volatile manner [7][8]. - Although gold has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Currently, it has adjusted to an important support level, and it is advisable to buy on dips [11][12]. - Iron ore has reached a new high, and the uptrend continues due to an improved macro - environment, increased risk appetite, high molten iron production, and a positive feedback repair in the industrial chain [15][16]. - Glass has seen continuous rallies, with its recent trend driven by news and sentiment. The supply side has not experienced significant losses and cold repairs, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly [19][20]. - The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, which is beneficial for the early performance of the Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hotspot Focus - Glass: Last week, the weekly domestic production increased slightly, inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks, the profit of different production processes is being repaired, the spot sales rate in mainstream areas reached 100% or more, and the average price rose by 10 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton [3]. - Soda ash: The inventory is at a historical high, and the fundamental situation is poor. This increase is mainly driven by glass and short - covering [3]. - Coking coal: Supply is affected by mine accidents and policy regulations. When supply shortages coincide with increased demand from the downstream steel industry, prices tend to rise. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's announcement of a ten - industry stable growth plan has boosted market sentiment and attracted a large amount of capital, driving prices to the daily limit [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The coal "anti - involution" has further stimulated the market, and the main uptrend of the market continues to move upwards in a volatile manner [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. However, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and it is currently at an important support level, suitable for buying on dips [11][12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Technically, it reached a new high today, and the uptrend continues. The improved macro - environment, increased risk appetite, high molten iron production, and positive feedback repair in the industrial chain support the upward movement [15][16]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The supply side has not experienced significant losses and cold repairs, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The recent trend is driven by news and sentiment, and the continuous rallies indicate a continuation of the uptrend [19][20]. Technical Analysis - Palm Oil - The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, which is beneficial for the early performance of the Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [23].
金信期货日刊-20250722
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 00:58
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon futures price has changed from rising to high - level oscillation. It's too hasty to judge that the price has reached the top just based on a single - day decline. If the "anti - involution" policy is effectively implemented and the supply - demand relationship is further improved, the price still has support [4]. - The main - rising wave market of the hydropower project - related sectors continues to oscillate upwards [7]. - The general trend of gold is still bullish. It has adjusted to an important support level, and it's advisable to buy on dips [11][12]. - The iron ore futures are in a continued uptrend as the macro - environment improves and the industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state [15][16]. - The glass futures are in a continued uptrend, and the recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment [19]. - The US new renewable fuel policy may help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures, but weak exports may limit the upside [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polysilicon Futures - The polysilicon futures price had a cumulative increase of over 50% in the recent 16 trading days, and the main contract rose 7.49% on the 17th, hitting a record high. However, it fell 0.9% at the mid - day close on the 18th [4]. - Technically, the current deviation rate is large, the price is far from the moving average, and the KDJ indicator shows a death cross at a high level, which is usually a signal of a possible price correction [4]. Hydropower Project - Related Sectors - The hydropower project is officially started, and related sectors have risen across the board. The main - rising wave market continues to oscillate upwards [7]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of an interest - rate cut this year, leading to an adjustment in the gold price. But the general upward trend remains unchanged [12]. - Gold has adjusted to an important support level, and it's advisable to buy on dips [11]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - water output remains at a high level with decent steel - mill profits. The industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state [16]. - Technically, the iron ore futures hit a new high today, and the uptrend continues [15]. Glass - There is no significant change in the fundamentals. The supply side has not seen a major loss - induced cold - repair situation, the factory inventory is marginally decreasing, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong [20]. - Technically, the glass futures hit a new high today, and the uptrend continues. The recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment [19]. Palm Oil - The US new renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, pushing up the Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it may help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [23]. - Weak exports of Malaysian palm oil may limit the upside [23].
金信期货日刊-20250721
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 00:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The polysilicon futures price turned from rising to falling on July 18, but it's too hasty to judge the price has reached the top. If the "anti - involution" policy is effectively implemented, the price still has support, and it should be treated as high - level oscillation [3][4]. - The A - share market is moderately positive with various consumption - stimulating policies, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate upwards at a high level [7][8]. - Gold has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, but the long - term upward trend remains, and it can be bought at low when it reaches an important support level [11][12]. - Iron ore's short - term trend is upward despite today's high - level decline, and a bullish mindset should be maintained [16][17]. - Glass's fundamentals haven't changed significantly, and its trend is driven by news and sentiment. The bullish trend continues [19][20]. - Methanol's port inventory is accumulating, downstream demand is weak, and it should be short - sold with a light position [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polysilicon Futures - The polysilicon futures price had a cumulative increase of over 50% in the past 16 trading days, with the main contract rising 7.49% on the 17th, reaching a record high of 45,700 yuan/ton. But it fell 0.9% at the mid - day close on the 18th, closing at 43,620 yuan/ton. Technically, there are signs of a possible price correction, but the price may still be supported by policy and supply - demand improvements [4]. A - share Market - A - share's three major indexes opened higher, fell during the session, and then rebounded strongly at the end. With the frequent introduction of consumption - stimulating policies, it is moderately positive for A - shares, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate upwards at a high level [7][8]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. However, the long - term upward trend remains, and it can be bought at low when it reaches an important support level [11][12]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - making water output remains high. Although the price rose and then fell today, the upward trend remains unchanged, and a bullish mindset should be maintained [16][17]. Glass - The supply side of glass has not experienced significant losses and cold repairs, the factory inventory has decreased marginally, and the downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking power. The fundamentals haven't changed significantly, and the trend is driven by news and sentiment. The bullish trend continues [19][20]. Methanol - This week, the unloading of foreign vessels was smooth, and the methanol port inventory continued to accumulate. The downstream demand remained weak, especially in Jiangsu where the inventory increased significantly. It should be short - sold with a light position [22].
金信期货日刊-20250718
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 01:25
Report Overview - Report Name: Goldtrust Futures Daily Report - Date: July 18, 2025 - Author: Goldtrust Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The glass market is experiencing a fierce short - term tug - of war between bulls and bears. If the price stabilizes at a key support level, one can consider going long; otherwise, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - The stock index futures market is expected to have a high - level volatile upward trend [7]. - The long - term outlook for gold remains positive. Currently, after adjusting to an important support level, one can buy on dips [11]. - The iron ore market maintains a bullish technical trend, and the positive feedback in the industrial chain continues [15]. - The glass market continues to follow a bullish technical trend, although the fundamentals have not changed significantly [19]. - For methanol, due to the continuous accumulation of port inventory, a short - position strategy with a small position is recommended [23]. Summary by Category Glass - Fundamentals: Real estate demand is weak, and although there is support from photovoltaic demand, it cannot fully offset the drag from the real estate sector. Glass social inventory has increased year - on - year, resulting in significant supply pressure. However, the cold - repair of production lines such as those of Jinjing Technology has reduced the daily melting volume, providing marginal support to supply and potentially limiting price declines [3]. - Industry News: On July 16, a kiln production line in Anhui with a designed capacity of 750 tons per day entered cold - repair, and the cold - repair speed of the top 10 photovoltaic glass production lines has accelerated. The supply has further decreased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment has improved, which is beneficial for the subsequent glass prices [3]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term correction of the glass futures main contract does not change the medium - term upward trend. If it stabilizes around 1050 yuan, one can try to go long with a small position. The bearish forces in the glass market are concentrated, but the net short positions of the top 20 seats in the main contract are showing a decreasing trend, indicating intensified market divergence [3]. Stock Index Futures - Market Trend: The A - share market opened lower and closed higher, with the ChiNext performing the strongest. The market is expected to have a high - level volatile upward trend [7][8]. Gold - Market News: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates in the meeting has reduced the expectation of an interest - rate cut within the year, leading to an adjustment in the gold price. However, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [12]. - Technical Analysis: After adjusting to an important support level, one can buy on dips [11]. Iron Ore - Macro Environment: The macro environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the high pig iron output due to decent steel mill profits has maintained a positive feedback in the industrial chain [16]. - Technical Analysis: The price continued to rise today, and the bullish view persists [15]. Methanol - Inventory Data: As of July 9, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 71.89 million tons, an increase of 4.52 million tons compared to the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 6.10 million tons, while that in South China decreased by 1.58 million tons. The port inventory has continued to accumulate this week, and a short - position strategy with a small position is recommended [23].
金信期货日刊-20250717
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 23:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass: Although the short - term glass market has intense long - short competition, considering the marginal support of supply reduction and the unchanged medium - term upward trend of the futures main contract, if the price stabilizes at the key support level, one can try to go long; otherwise, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Stock Index Futures: It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upward at a high level during the delivery week [7]. - Gold: Despite the adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduced expectation of rate cuts this year, the general upward trend remains, and it can be bought at a low price when it adjusts to an important support level [11][12]. - Iron Ore: With the improvement of the macro - environment, high iron - water production, and the positive feedback repair of the industrial chain, it should be viewed from a bullish perspective [15][16]. - Methanol: As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports has increased, so it should be shorted with a light position [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Glass - Fundamental: Real estate demand is weak, and although there is support from photovoltaic demand, it cannot fully offset the drag from the real estate sector. The social inventory of glass has increased year - on - year, resulting in significant supply pressure. However, the cold repair of production lines such as Jinjing Technology has reduced the daily melting volume, providing marginal support for supply and potentially limiting price declines [3]. - Industrial News: On July 16, a kiln production line in Anhui with a designed capacity of 750 tons per day entered cold repair, and the cold - repair speed of the top 10 photovoltaic glass production lines has accelerated. The downstream purchasing sentiment has improved, which is beneficial for glass enterprises to reduce inventory and subsequent glass prices [3]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term correction of the glass futures main contract does not change the medium - term upward trend. If it stabilizes around 1050 yuan, one can try to go long with a light position. The short - selling power of glass is concentrated, but the net short positions of the top 20 seats of the main contract show a decreasing trend, and market divergence has intensified [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures This week is the delivery week of stock index futures. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upward at a high level [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a correction in gold prices. However, the general upward trend remains, and it can be bought at a low price when it adjusts to an important support level [11][12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore The improvement of the macro - environment has increased risk appetite. With good steel - mill profits, iron - water production remains at a high level, and the industrial chain is in a state of positive feedback repair. Technically, it continued to rise today, so it should be viewed from a bullish perspective [15][16]. Technical Analysis - Glass The supply side has not experienced a major loss - induced cold - repair situation, the factory inventory is still high, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak. There is no obvious change in the fundamentals, and recent trends are more driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it fluctuated within a narrow range today, and the lower support is effective, so it should be viewed from a bullish perspective [19][20]. Technical Analysis - Methanol As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 71.89 tons, an increase of 4.52 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 6.10 tons, while that in South China decreased by 1.58 tons. The methanol port inventory continued to accumulate this week, and it should be shorted with a light position [22].
金信期货日刊-20250716
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 01:19
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate in the second quarter was 5.2%. The stock index futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [4]. - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has led to a decrease in the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in the gold market. However, the long - term outlook for gold remains positive, and it is advisable to buy on dips when it reaches an important support level [8][9]. - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron ore market is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it is expected to maintain a strong consolidation at a high level, and a bullish view is recommended [12]. - The glass market is mainly driven by news and sentiment. Although the fundamentals have not changed significantly, the price has support below after a high - level decline today, so a bullish view is taken [14][15]. - As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports has increased. The inventory in East China has increased, while that in South China has decreased. With the continuous accumulation of port inventory, a short - selling strategy with a light position is recommended [18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Technical Analysis of Stock Index Futures - The GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the second quarter. The market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations [4]. 3.2 Technical Analysis of Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a short - term adjustment in the gold market. But the long - term trend is upward, and it can be bought on dips at important support levels [8][9]. 3.3 Technical Analysis of Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron ore market is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it maintains a strong consolidation at a high level, and a bullish view is appropriate [12]. 3.4 Technical Analysis of Glass - The fundamentals of the glass market have not changed significantly, and it is mainly driven by news and sentiment. After a high - level decline today, there is support below, so a bullish view is recommended [14][15]. 3.5 Technical Analysis of Methanol - As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports is 71.89 tons, an increase of 4.52 tons from the previous period. East China has seen inventory accumulation, while South China has experienced destocking. With continuous inventory accumulation, a short - selling strategy with a light position is suggested [18].
金信期货日刊-20250715
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 01:57
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 9, 2025, the coking coal futures price rose. Supply tightened due to safety inspections in major production areas, potential closure of the production - capacity replacement window, and the implementation of the Mineral Resources Law. Demand increased during the "peak - summer" period. This may raise steel production costs and steel prices, and attract more funds to the coal industry. Investors should seize the opportunity to buy on dips [3]. - In the stock market, the overall situation is that the Shanghai Composite Index had a good performance with an opening - low and closing - high trend, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index had minor fluctuations. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [7][8]. - For gold, although there was an adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and reduced expectations of rate cuts this year, the long - term upward trend remains. It has adjusted to an important support level, and investors can buy on dips [11][12]. - For iron ore, the macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - water output remains high. Technically, it maintained a strong high - level consolidation, so a bullish view is appropriate [16]. - For glass, the supply side has no significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream restocking power is weak. The recent trend is driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it pulled up near the end of the session, so a bullish view is appropriate [20]. - For methanol, as of July 9, 2025, China's methanol port inventory increased. The East China region saw inventory accumulation, while the South China region had destocking. With continued inventory accumulation and visible foreign - vessel unloading, a short - selling strategy with a light position is advisable [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: In June, over 30 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were shut down for rectification. It is expected that annual production will be reduced by 1.2 billion tons. The Mineral Resources Law implemented on July 1 raised the coal - mine production - capacity threshold, causing 30% of small coal mines to face exit, such as the suspension of 12 million tons of production capacity in Shanxi. The supply of high - quality coking coal tightened, and the spot price rose by 50 yuan/ton [3]. - Demand: During the "peak - summer" period, the daily consumption of power plants exceeded 2.4 million tons, the coking industry's operating rate reached 82% (a new high this year), the daily iron - water output rebounded to 2.35 million tons, and the coking - plant operating rate was 73%. Steel mills' passive restocking boosted short - term demand [3]. Stock Market - The Shanghai Composite Index had an opening - low and closing - high trend, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index had minor fluctuations. Customs data showed that China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 2.9% year - on - year in the first half of the year. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [7][8]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a short - term adjustment in gold prices. However, the long - term upward trend remains, and it has adjusted to an important support level, so investors can buy on dips [11][12]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and steel mills' profits are acceptable, resulting in high iron - water output. The industrial chain is in a positive - feedback repair state. Technically, it maintained a strong high - level consolidation, so a bullish view is appropriate [16]. Glass - The supply side has no significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream restocking power is weak. The recent trend is driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it pulled up near the end of the session, so a bullish view is appropriate [20]. Methanol - As of July 9, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 718,900 tons, an increase of 45,200 tons from the previous period. The East China region saw an inventory increase of 61,000 tons, while the South China region had a decrease of 15,800 tons. With continued inventory accumulation and visible foreign - vessel unloading of 177,200 tons, a short - selling strategy with a light position is advisable [22].
金信期货日刊-20250714
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-13 23:34
Report Title - "Jiaoxin Futures Daily" and "Analysis of the Reasons, Impacts, and Outlook for the Rise in Coking Coal Futures Prices" [1][2] Core Viewpoints - On July 9, 2025, coking coal futures prices rose due to supply tightening and increased demand. The price increase will raise steel production costs and may push up steel prices, while also boosting market confidence in the coal industry and attracting more capital inflows. Opportunities for low - buying on pullbacks should be grasped [3] - A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillations. Gold is in an adjustment phase but the long - term upward trend remains. Iron ore, glass, and methanol have their own market characteristics and trading suggestions [6][10][21] Industry Analysis Coking Coal Industry - Supply: Main production areas have tightened safety inspections, with over 30 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia shut down for rectification in June. It is expected that production will decrease by 1.2 billion tons per year. The implementation of the "Mineral Resources Law" on July 1 raised the coal mine production capacity threshold, causing 30% of small coal mines to face exit. The supply of high - quality primary coking coal is tight, and spot prices have risen by 50 yuan/ton [3] - Demand: During the "peak summer power consumption period", national high - temperature warnings are frequent. The daily power plant consumption has exceeded 2.4 million tons, the coking industry's operating rate has rebounded to 82%, a new high for the year. The daily hot metal production has rebounded to 2.35 million tons, and the coking plant operating rate is 73%. Steel mills' passive inventory replenishment has increased short - term demand [3] A - share Market - The three major A - share indexes opened flat and moved higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the late session and then falling back. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [6] Gold Market - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. However, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and it is expected to reach new highs. It is advisable to buy on dips [10][11] Iron Ore Market - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, steel mills' profits are acceptable, and hot metal production remains high. The industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it showed a rise and then a fall today but did not break below the support, so a bullish view is maintained [14][15] Glass Market - The supply side has not seen a significant loss - induced cold repair situation, factory inventories remain high, downstream deep - processing orders have weak inventory replenishment motivation, and demand has not continued to increase significantly. Technically, it rose and then fell today but the lower support is effective, so a bullish view is maintained. It is still waiting for the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [18][19] Methanol Market - As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 718,900 tons, an increase of 45,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 61,000 tons, while that in South China decreased by 15,800 tons. This week, methanol port inventories continued to accumulate, with 177,200 tons of obvious foreign vessel unloading during the period. A short - position strategy with a light position is recommended [21]
金信期货日刊-20250711
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 23:30
Report Overview - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Daily Journal" [1][2] - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - On July 9, 2025, the coking coal futures price increased. Supply tightened due to safety inspections and regulatory changes, while demand rose during the "peak summer" period. This price increase may push up steel prices and attract more funds to the coal industry. Traders should seize the opportunity to buy on dips [3]. - The stock index futures are expected to continue to oscillate and rise at a high level. The A - share market had a volatile day, with the Shanghai Composite Index holding above 3500 points, and there were no major news events [7][8]. - Gold may face short - term adjustments due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, but the long - term upward trend remains. Traders can buy on dips at important support levels [11][12]. - Iron ore has a high overvaluation risk due to weak market conditions, but it showed a significant rebound today, and a bullish view is now appropriate [15][16]. - Glass supply is still high, and demand has not significantly increased. However, it showed a strong breakthrough today, and a bullish view is now appropriate [18][19]. - Soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short term due to the US biodiesel policy and the Middle East situation. But in the medium - term, it is in a season of production and inventory increase. Traders can short - sell lightly when the price reaches the previous high of 7950 - 8000 [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: In June, over 30 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were shut down for rectification. The capacity replacement window may close in the second half of the year, with an expected annual production cut of 1.2 billion tons. The new "Mineral Resources Law" will force 30% of small coal mines to exit, and the supply of high - quality coking coal is tight, with the spot price rising by 50 yuan/ton [3]. - Demand: During the "peak summer", the daily consumption of power plants exceeded 240,000 tons, the coking industry's operating rate reached 82%, and the daily production of molten iron rebounded to 235,000 tons. Coking plants' operating rate was 73%, and steel mills' passive restocking increased short - term demand [3]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: The A - share market opened higher, then declined, recovered, and finally pulled back at the end of the day. The Shanghai Composite Index held above 3500 points, and there were no major news events [8]. - Outlook: The market is expected to continue to oscillate and rise at a high level [7]. Gold - Market News: The Fed decided not to cut interest rates, reducing the expectation of rate cuts this year, leading to a short - term adjustment in gold prices [12]. - Outlook: The long - term upward trend of gold remains. Traders can buy on dips when the price reaches an important support level [11]. Iron Ore - Market Conditions: Supply increased month - on - month, molten iron production declined seasonally, and port inventories increased again. The weak market increased the risk of overvaluation [16]. - Outlook: After a significant rebound today, a bullish view is now appropriate [15]. Glass - Market Conditions: There has been no large - scale cold repair of production lines due to losses, factory inventories are still high, and downstream demand has not significantly increased [19]. - Outlook: After a strong breakthrough today, a bullish view is now appropriate [18]. Soybean Oil - Market News: The US biodiesel policy and the Middle East situation are uncertain, which may cause short - term oscillations or strengthen the price of soybean oil [21]. - Outlook: In the medium - term, it is in a season of production and inventory increase. Traders can short - sell lightly when the price reaches the previous high of 7950 - 8000 [21].
金信期货日刊-20250710
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 23:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 9, 2025, the coking coal futures price rose. The supply was tight due to safety inspections in major production areas, potential closure of the capacity replacement window, and the implementation of the Mineral Resources Law. Meanwhile, demand increased during the "peak summer" period, with high power plant consumption, rising coking industry and iron - making开工率. The price increase may raise steel production costs and attract more funds to the coal industry. Investors are advised to seize the opportunity of low - buying on dips [3]. - For stock index futures, considering the June CPI and PPI data, the market is expected to continue high - level consolidation [7]. - For gold, although there was an adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, the long - term upward trend remains. It is recommended to buy on dips at important support levels [11][12]. - For iron ore, supply is rising, iron - making output is seasonally weakening, and ports are restocking. There is a risk of overvaluation, and steel mill profits should be monitored. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [14][15]. - For glass, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [17][18]. - For soybean oil, due to the uncertain US biodiesel policy and Middle - East situation, the short - term trend may be strong, but mid - term supply will increase. When the price reaches the resistance area of 7950 - 8000, short - selling with a light position is recommended [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: In June, over 30 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were shut down for rectification. There are rumors that the capacity replacement window will close in the second half of the year, with an expected annual production cut of 1.2 billion tons. The implementation of the Mineral Resources Law on July 1 led to about 30% of small coal mines facing exit, such as the suspension of 12 million tons of production capacity in Shanxi, causing a shortage of high - quality coking coal and a 50 - yuan/ton increase in spot price [3]. - Demand: During the "peak summer", the daily power plant consumption exceeded 2.4 million tons, the coking industry开工率 reached 82%, a new high for the year. The daily iron - making output rebounded to 2.35 million tons, and the coking plant开工率 was 73%. Steel mills' passive restocking increased short - term demand [3]. Stock Index Futures - Market situation: In June, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year. The market is expected to continue high - level consolidation [7]. Gold - Market situation: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in the gold price. However, the long - term upward trend remains, and it is recommended to buy on dips at important support levels [11][12]. Iron Ore - Supply - demand situation: Supply increased month - on - month, iron - making output decreased seasonally, and ports started restocking. The weak reality increased the risk of overvaluation, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits. Technically, it continued to rebound and is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [14][15]. Glass - Supply - demand situation: There has been no major cold - repair situation due to losses in the supply side, factory inventories are still high, downstream deep - processing orders lack restocking motivation, and demand has not increased significantly. It is waiting for real - estate stimulus or major policy. Technically, it continued to rebound and is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [17][18]. Soybean Oil - Market situation: Due to the uncertain US biodiesel policy and Middle - East situation, the short - term trend may be strong, but mid - term supply will increase. When the price reaches the resistance area of 7950 - 8000, short - selling with a light position is recommended [20].