Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The egg futures price is falling. Due to high inventory of laying hens, increased supply of small - sized eggs, and weak demand in summer, the egg price is expected to remain low in the first half of July, but the decline is limited [3]. - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillations. Gold is expected to rise in the long - term, and it's advisable to buy at low prices when it reaches important support levels. Iron ore has a high over - valuation risk, and a wide - range oscillation approach is recommended. Glass market needs real estate stimulus or major policies, and a shock approach is appropriate. Soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short - term, and short - selling with a light position is advised when it reaches the previous high pressure area [7][11][15][19][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Egg Futures - Supply: High inventory of laying hens, increasing number of newly - laid hens, and increased supply of small - sized eggs lead to large supply pressure, and the pressure is hard to relieve soon [3]. - Demand: Summer is the off - season for egg consumption. School holidays reduce canteen purchases, and overall demand is weak and hard to change in the short - term. However, low prices may stimulate supermarket promotions and trader restocking [3]. - Price Outlook: Affected by the leap June, the egg price will remain low in the first half of July. The low - price area has delivery and cold - storage stocking, limiting the decline. Observe the strong support area of 3370 - 3350 for the main egg futures contract [3]. A - share Market - Market Performance: On Monday, the three major A - share indexes opened high and closed low, with only the Shanghai Composite Index closing in the positive territory above 3470 points. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [8][7]. Gold - Market Factors: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduces the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. But the long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and it's advisable to buy at low prices when it reaches important support levels [12][11]. Iron Ore - Market Situation: Supply is rising month - on - month, iron - water production is seasonally weakening, and ports are accumulating inventory again. The weak reality increases the over - valuation risk of iron ore. Technically, it shows a trend of rising and then falling, and a wide - range oscillation approach is recommended [16][15]. Glass - Supply and Demand: There is no major cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventory is high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking power, so demand is not continuously increasing. It needs real estate stimulus or major policies. Technically, it has been adjusting at a high level for three days, and a shock approach is appropriate [20][19]. Soybean Oil - Market Trend: Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation, soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short - term. But the current supply - demand is not tight, and it will see seasonal production and inventory increase in the medium - term. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 7950 - 8000, short - selling with a light position is advised [23].

Group 1: Report Core View - Glass futures experienced a pullback after a rally, presenting a good opportunity to go long [3] - The expectation of production cuts is the key driver for the price increase of glass futures. Domestic leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to collectively cut production by 30% starting from July, and the supply in July is expected to drop to around 45GW. Previously, the glass industry had a serious oversupply issue, with prices dropping by over 70% and the industry in a loss - making state. Production cuts will alleviate the imbalance between supply and demand and accelerate capacity clearance, which is beneficial for price recovery. Additionally, Sanxia New Material announced a one - year cold repair of its float glass production line, and these production cut actions on the supply side support the price [4] - Policy factors also contribute to the rise in glass futures prices. The Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises, which will increase costs as enterprises improve product quality and reduce supply as backward production capacity exits [4] - From the market sentiment and technical aspects, glass futures may have been oversold previously and have a technical rebound demand. The market's expectation of production cut news and policies has strengthened the bullish sentiment, and capital inflows have pushed up the price. Moreover, the firm price of soda ash has caused some glass enterprises to incur losses, providing strong support for the glass price near the cost line [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Different Futures Stock Index Futures - The implementation of the new program trading regulations is imminent. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upwards next Monday [8] Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates in the meeting has reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts this year, leading to an adjustment in the gold price. However, the overall trend remains bullish, and it is only a matter of time before it reaches a new high, although the pace is slow. Currently, it has adjusted to an important support level and is likely to resume its upward trend [12][13] Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and port inventories have started to accumulate again. The weak reality has increased the over - valuation risk of iron ore. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits. Technically, most of the prices have risen and then fallen today, and a wide - range oscillation approach should be adopted [16][17] Glass - The supply side of glass has not yet experienced a major loss - induced cold repair situation, factory inventories are still at a high level, and the downstream deep - processing orders have weak replenishment motivation, so the demand has not continued to increase significantly. It still depends on the effect of real estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Recently, the significant production cut of photovoltaic glass has affected market sentiment. Technically, the price has maintained a range - bound consolidation today, and the short - term sentiment has a greater impact. An oscillating and bullish approach should be adopted [20][21] Soybean Oil - Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain situation in the Middle East, the short - term trend of soybean oil may be oscillating or bullish. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and it is in a period of seasonal production and inventory increase in the medium term. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8050 - 8000, a light - position short - term short - selling strategy can be considered [23]

Report Overview - The report is the daily journal of Goldtrust Futures, dated July 4, 2025, analyzing multiple futures products including glass, stock index, gold, iron ore, soybean oil, etc. [1] Core Views - Glass futures prices rose on July 3, 2025. The key drivers are the production cut expectations of leading domestic photovoltaic glass enterprises starting from July, with a planned 30% collective reduction, expected to reduce the July supply to about 45GW. Also, policy factors and market sentiment contributed to the price increase [3][4]. - For stock index futures, the market sentiment is continuously easing. The market is expected to continue to oscillate upward [8]. - Gold futures are expected to rise in the long - term. Although there is an adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, it is likely to restart the upward trend after adjusting to an important support level [12][13]. - Iron ore futures face an over - valuation risk due to the increase in supply, seasonal decline in molten iron production, and the resumption of inventory accumulation at ports. A wide - range oscillation approach is recommended [17]. - Glass futures still await the effect of real estate stimulus or major policy announcements. A short - term oscillatory and bullish approach is recommended [20]. - Soybean oil futures are expected to oscillate or be bullish in the short - term due to the long - term expectations of US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation. However, a short - selling strategy is recommended when the price reaches the previous high pressure zone of 8050 - 8000 [23]. Product - Specific Summaries Glass Futures - Price trend: Continued to rise to a new high on July 3, 2025 [3]. - Drivers: Production cut expectations of leading photovoltaic glass enterprises, policy support, market sentiment, and cost support [4][5]. - Outlook: Still await real estate stimulus or major policies. Short - term oscillatory and bullish [20]. Stock Index Futures - Market sentiment: Continuously easing. - Outlook: Expected to continue to oscillate upward [8]. Gold Futures - Price adjustment: Adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates. - Outlook: Long - term bullish, likely to restart the upward trend after reaching an important support level [12][13]. Iron Ore Futures - Market situation: Supply increased, molten iron production declined seasonally, and ports resumed inventory accumulation. - Outlook: High over - valuation risk, wide - range oscillation approach [17]. Soybean Oil Futures - Market factors: Long - term expectations of US biodiesel policy and uncertain Middle - East situation. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation or bullish, short - selling at the previous high pressure zone of 8050 - 8000 [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 2, 2025, the main glass futures contract rose 4.00% intraday, reaching 1028.00 yuan/ton, driven by multiple factors [3]. - The stock index futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly adjusting and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index adjusting more significantly [7][8]. - Gold is expected to restart its upward trend after adjusting to an important support level, despite a recent adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates [11][12]. - The iron ore market should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation mindset, considering supply increases, weakening iron - water production, and port inventory accumulation [15][16]. - The glass market should be viewed with a bullish - leaning oscillation mindset, affected by short - term sentiment and recent significant production cuts in photovoltaic glass [19]. - The soybean oil market is expected to oscillate or strengthen in the short term due to the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation, but short - sell lightly when the price reaches the 8050 - 8000 resistance area [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - The price increase of glass futures is due to production cut expectations (domestic leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to cut production by 30% starting from July, and a company plans to shut down a production line for cold repair), policy factors (the Central Financial and Economic Commission's measures to address low - price competition and promote quality improvement), market sentiment and technical factors (previous oversold condition and cost support from strong soda ash prices) [3][4]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The market is expected to continue to oscillate, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly adjusting and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index adjusting more significantly [7][8]. Technical Analysis - Gold - After adjusting to an important support level, gold is likely to restart its upward trend. Although the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has led to a short - term adjustment, the long - term outlook remains bullish [11][12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Supply has increased month - on - month, iron - water production has weakened seasonally, and port inventories have resumed accumulation. The market should be viewed with a wide - range oscillation mindset, and the over - valuation risk of iron ore should be noted [15][16]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The market should be viewed with a bullish - leaning oscillation mindset. Although there has been significant production cut in photovoltaic glass recently, the supply side has not seen major cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are still high, and downstream demand has not increased significantly [19][20]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - The market is expected to oscillate or strengthen in the short term due to the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation. However, considering the current supply - demand situation and the upcoming seasonal increase in production and inventory, short - sell lightly when the price reaches the 8050 - 8000 resistance area [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 1, 2025, the rise in gold prices was due to multiple factors. The dollar index dropped to its lowest since February 2022, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia - Ukraine conflict increased market risk - aversion. However, the upcoming release of US June non - farm payroll data on Thursday could potentially suppress gold prices. So, it is recommended to try long positions with a light position [3][4]. - For A - shares, the three major indices opened lower and closed higher. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate and rise, as the tariff war is nearing its end [7][8]. - For gold in the long - term, the overall direction is still bullish, though it is currently undergoing adjustments due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduced expectation of rate cuts this year [12]. - For iron ore, supply has increased month - on - month, iron - water production has weakened seasonally, and ports are back in a state of inventory accumulation. Technically, it should be regarded as oscillating with a downward bias [15][16]. - For glass, it still awaits the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Technically, it should be considered as oscillating with a downward bias [20][21]. - For soybean oil, due to the long - term expectations of US biofuel policies and the uncertain Middle - East situation, short - term oil prices may oscillate or be strong. But considering the mid - term seasonal increase in production and inventory, when the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8050 - 8000, short positions with a light position are recommended [24]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Market environment factors such as the drop in the dollar index and the decline in the 10 - year US Treasury yield, along with geopolitical tensions, led to the rise in gold prices on July 1, 2025. But the upcoming US non - farm payroll data may affect gold prices. It is advisable to try long positions with a light position [3][4]. - In the long - term, the overall trend of gold is bullish. Although it has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, it is likely to restart its upward trend after adjusting to an important support level [11][12]. 3.2 A - shares - The A - share market had a trend of opening lower and closing higher. With the tariff war approaching its end, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate and rise [7][8]. 3.3 Iron Ore - Supply has increased month - on - month, iron - water production has weakened seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory. Technically, it is showing a downward - biased oscillation [15][16]. 3.4 Glass - The supply side has not seen significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream demand is weak. It awaits real - estate stimulus or major policies. Technically, it is in a downward - biased oscillation [20][21]. 3.5 Soybean Oil - Due to long - term US biofuel policy expectations and the uncertain Middle - East situation, short - term oil prices may oscillate or be strong. But considering mid - term seasonal production and inventory increases, short positions with a light position are recommended when the price reaches 8050 - 8000 [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, with a high risk of chasing the upward trend. Short - selling at high levels can be attempted [3][4] - The A - share market is expected to continue to rise in a volatile manner this week [7] - Gold is still bullish in the long - term, and it is likely to restart the upward trend after adjusting to an important support level [11][12] - Iron ore should be viewed with an oscillatory mindset. The over - valuation risk is increased due to weak reality [15][16] - Glass should be viewed with an oscillatory mindset, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [18][19] - Soybean oil is expected to oscillate or strengthen in the short term but is in a mid - term seasonal production and inventory increase period. Short - selling at a light position can be considered when the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8050 - 8000 [21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Recently, cotton futures have risen for five consecutive days. On June 30, the morning session was strong with a nearly 1% increase, but the price turned down near the close [3] - From the supply side, there is an expected increase in global cotton production, the old - crop inventory is being depleted rapidly and at a low level, and the expected additional sliding - scale quota may be small, leading to an expectation of tight inventory at the end of the year [3] - From the demand side, although there were positive signs in China's textile and clothing exports in May, commercial inventory is decreasing, and there is rigid restocking demand, the overall demand is sluggish [3] - The cooling of the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the weakening of the external market, and the decline in international crude oil prices have increased the substitution cost of chemical fibers, dragging down cotton prices [3] A - share Market - On Monday this week, the three major A - share indices opened lower and closed higher with a mid -阳线. The June manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, better than expected, which is further positive for A - shares [7][8] Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates in the meeting has reduced the expectation of an interest - rate cut this year, causing gold to adjust. However, the long - term bullish trend remains unchanged [12] Iron Ore - Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and port inventory has started to accumulate again. The weak reality has increased the over - valuation risk of iron ore [16] Glass - There has been no significant cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventory remains high, the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak, and demand has not increased significantly [19] Soybean Oil - Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain situation in the Middle East, soybean oil is expected to oscillate or strengthen in the short term. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and it is in a mid - term seasonal production and inventory increase period [21]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On June 27, 2025, the coking coal price continued to rise. The price increase was due to multiple factors including supply - side constraints, demand - side expectations, futures market factors, and capital inflows. However, high inventory levels suppressed the price rebound space [3][4][5] - The A - share market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards as the NDRC released positive policies and data [8][9] - Gold is expected to reach a new high in the long - term despite a short - term adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates. Investors can buy in batches at low prices [12][13] - Iron ore is considered to be in a wide - range oscillation with a slightly stronger trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits, industry repair status, and the over - valuation risk caused by weak market conditions [16][17] - Glass is in a narrow - range consolidation, and an uptrend depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy announcements [19][20] - Short - term soybean oil prices may fluctuate or strengthen due to the US biodiesel policy and the Middle - East situation. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8150 - 8100, short - selling with a light position is recommended [23] Group 3: Summaries by Directory Coking Coal - Supply - side factors: In June (the "Safety Production Month"), major coking coal - producing provinces like Shanxi strengthened production restrictions after safety accidents. The upcoming implementation of the new "Mineral Resources Law" on July 1 may force out backward production capacity. Some coal prices are close to cash costs, pressuring private mines to cut production [4] - Demand - side factors: Although the current terminal is in a seasonal off - peak, there is an expected increase in demand during the traditional coking coal peak season from April to October as steel mills may replenish stocks. More macro - policies to stabilize the economy and promote infrastructure could also boost demand [4] - Futures and capital factors: Coking coal futures have been falling since 2025, with a strong need for correction. Some short - position funds took profits and reduced positions, and the net long positions of the top 20 seats increased [5] - Inventory factor: The inventory of imported coking coal at ports and the total inventory are at a three - year high, and the frequent auction failures of Mongolian coal have led to inventory backlogs, suppressing price rebounds [5] A - share Market - Market trend: The three major A - share indexes showed a pattern of rising and then falling, closing with small shrinking - volume negative lines. The market is in a shrinking - volume adjustment state [9] - Policy influence: The NDRC released positive policies and data at a regular press conference, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [8][9] Gold - Market situation: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a short - term adjustment in the gold market [13] - Outlook: The long - term trend of gold is still bullish, and it is expected to reach a new high. Investors can buy in batches at low prices [12][13] Iron Ore - Market fundamentals: Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and port inventories have started to accumulate again. The weak market conditions have increased the risk of over - valuation [17] - Technical analysis: The market closed with a large positive line today but remains within a wide - range oscillation, showing a slightly stronger trend [16] Glass - Supply - demand situation: There has been no significant cold - repair of production lines due to losses on the supply side, factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders lack the motivation to replenish stocks, resulting in a lack of continuous demand growth [20] - Technical analysis: The market is in a narrow - range consolidation, and an uptrend depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy announcements [19] Soybean Oil - Market factors: The long - term expectations of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation may cause short - term price fluctuations or strengthen the market. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and there will be a seasonal increase in production and inventory in the medium - term [23] - Trading strategy: When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8150 - 8100, short - selling with a light position is recommended [23]

GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/06/27 在需求端，虽然当前终端处于季节性淡季，钢材价格震荡运行，焦炭第四轮提降落地后焦企利润走差， 采购焦煤积极性不高，仅维持刚性需求。但4 - 10月是焦煤传统旺季，钢厂有补库预期，对焦煤需求可 能增加。并且，若后续有更多稳经济、促基建等宏观政策出台，将带动钢铁需求，进而增加对焦煤的采 购需求 。 此外，2025年以来焦煤期货持续下跌，存在强烈的修复需求，引发反弹。部分空头资金获利了结，空头 减仓行为助推价格上涨，且前20席位净多持仓增加，海通期货等机构增仓多头，资金推动也是焦煤价格 上涨的因素之一。不过，港口进口焦煤库存及总库存仍处近3年高位，蒙煤竞拍流拍常态化，库存积压， 一定程度上压制了价格反弹空间。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 6月26日焦煤价格上涨：原因与展望 2025年6月26日，焦煤价格上涨引发市场关注。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - On June 24, 2025, the urea price skyrocketed, becoming the focus of the agricultural materials market. The price had previously been on a downward trend, but reversed on June 16. International market disturbances, approaching corn top - dressing season, and the futures market's pull effect contributed to the price increase. However, supply - side pressure remains, and attention should be paid to agricultural demand and raw material coal prices. Traders and farmers should avoid blind chasing and focus on the 1800 - 1850 pressure zone [3]. - After the Israel - Iran cease - fire, the policy environment is favorable. The stock index futures market is expected to continue to rise in a volatile manner [7]. - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has led to an adjustment in the gold market, but the long - term upward trend remains. Investors can buy in batches at low prices [11][12]. - For iron ore, supply has increased month - on - month, iron water production has weakened seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory again. The risk of over - valuation is high. Technically, attention should be paid to the important support below, and it should be viewed as a volatile market [14][15]. - For glass, the supply side has not seen significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream demand is not strong. It is expected to be a volatile market until the real - estate stimulus effect appears or major policies are introduced [18][19]. - For soybean oil, due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation, the short - term trend of the oil market may be strong. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and there will be seasonal production and inventory increases in the medium - term. When the price reaches the 8000 - 8100 pressure zone, short - selling with a light position is recommended [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Market - Price trend: Previously, the mainstream regional ex - factory price of urea fell below 1700 yuan/ton, and the low - end ex - factory quotes in Shanxi and Shaanxi dropped to around 1620 yuan/ton. On June 16, the price reversed, with main - producing area enterprises raising prices by 30 - 60 yuan/ton, and some enterprises in Shandong adjusting prices three times a day [3]. - Reasons for price increase: International market disturbances, approaching corn top - dressing season leading to increased agricultural demand, and the pull effect of the futures market [3]. - Future outlook: Supply - side pressure remains, and attention should be paid to agricultural demand and raw material coal prices [3]. Stock Index Futures - Fundamental situation: After the Israel - Iran cease - fire, the policy environment is favorable [7]. - Market trend: Expected to continue to rise in a volatile manner [7]. Gold - Market situation: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has led to an adjustment, but the long - term upward trend remains [12]. - Investment strategy: Buy in batches at low prices [11]. Iron Ore - Market situation: Supply has increased month - on - month, iron water production has weakened seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory again, increasing the risk of over - valuation [15]. - Technical analysis: Attention should be paid to the important support below, and it should be viewed as a volatile market [14]. Glass - Market situation: The supply side has not seen significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream demand is not strong [19]. - Future outlook: Expected to be a volatile market until the real - estate stimulus effect appears or major policies are introduced [18]. Soybean Oil - Market situation: Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation, the short - term trend may be strong. The current supply - demand situation is not tight, and there will be seasonal production and inventory increases in the medium - term [21]. - Investment strategy: When the price reaches the 8000 - 8100 pressure zone, short - selling with a light position is recommended [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - A-share market is driven by "economic recovery + interest rate decline + deposit relocation", and the breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points marks the opening of a new upward space. The A-share "bull market" has shifted from expectation to reality, and investors can focus on the opportunity to go long on stock index futures on dips [2][24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - As of June 25, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through and closed above the key level of 3450 points, with three consecutive days of stable gains. Other indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also rose in tandem. The trading volume of the two markets increased significantly, showing a healthy "volume-price increase" technical pattern, opening up upward space for the second-half market [3]. Economic Situation - In 2025, China's economy continued the recovery trend since the fourth quarter of last year. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 5.4%, significantly higher than 4.8% in the fourth quarter of last year [4]. - The new quality productivity-related industries improved notably, laying a solid foundation for further economic recovery. Policy-driven consumption played a key role, with durable goods like cars and home appliances directly benefiting from dual subsidies from the central and local governments. During the "618" promotion period, sales data in new consumption areas such as beauty, small home appliances, and pet economy exceeded expectations, indicating the accumulation of domestic demand resilience [6]. Policy Environment - Fiscal policy: In 2025, the deficit rate is expected to further increase, and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will continue to be issued, with funds mainly invested in hard technology and people's livelihood areas. The focus of fiscal efforts is shifting from traditional infrastructure to promoting domestic demand [7]. - Monetary policy: The central bank has set the tone of "choosing the right time to cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and "maintaining ample liquidity". In 2025, policy interest rates and the deposit reserve ratio are expected to be further lowered [7]. - Real estate policy: Real estate policies have shifted from "protecting projects" to "protecting real estate enterprises", and a storage model is being explored to stabilize housing prices [7]. - Capital market policy: The "New Nine - Article Guidelines" for the capital market promotes investment - side reforms, aiming to improve shareholder returns and encourage mergers and acquisitions, providing institutional guarantees for the entry of medium - and long - term funds [7]. Corporate Earnings - After the profit adjustment in 2024, A - share corporate profits are expected to recover in 2025. In April 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China turned positive year - on - year, reaching 1.5%. Most institutions predict that the profit growth rate of the entire A - share market will show an inflection point of improvement around mid - 2025, with an annual growth rate expected to reach 6.5%. Emerging industries may become the main force for profit growth [8][10]. Global Environment - The Fed is still in an interest rate cut cycle in 2025, which will have a positive impact on the Chinese stock market. Historically, Fed rate cuts tend to reduce the attractiveness of the US dollar, prompting international funds to flow from US dollar assets to emerging markets. The appreciation trend of the RMB exchange rate further enhances the attractiveness of A - shares to foreign capital [13]. Interest Rate Environment - China's monetary policy is in a loose cycle, and the decline in interest rates directly reduces corporate financing costs, which is particularly beneficial to high - leverage industries (such as real estate and infrastructure) and R & D - intensive technology companies. Historical data shows that in the middle and late stages of interest rate decline, the stock market rally often lasts for more than 4 months [14]. Market Liquidity - The current A - share liquidity shows a triple - support pattern: foreign capital is flowing back, with recent net inflows into the Chinese stock market hitting a new high; the investment ratio limit of insurance funds in equities has been increased by 5%, and it is expected that social security, insurance, and annuities will net buy more than 200 billion yuan of A - shares in 2025; leveraged funds are active, indicating a significant increase in on - site risk appetite [17]. Resident Savings - In March 2025, China's household deposits exceeded 160 trillion yuan, with per capita deposits reaching 107,000 yuan, significantly higher than the GDP of 135 trillion yuan. Households hold about 40 trillion yuan in excess savings. With the continuous decline in deposit interest rates, this part of the funds faces a strong need for re - allocation [18]. - The transfer of household savings to the capital market has become an irreversible trend. Recently, the one - year fixed - deposit rate has dropped to around 1.5%, while the dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index has risen to 3.2%, and the average dividend yield of the constituent stocks of the dividend index exceeds 5%. The relative attractiveness of equity assets is prominent [21].