1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - A股主要指数收盘集体大幅上涨，三大指数早盘高开高走，午后短暂回落随后再度拉升，大盘蓝筹股强于中小盘股。本周国内处于宏观数据真空期，迎来上市公司板报密集披露潮，市场关注半年报披露状况。低利率环境下居民存款搬家为市场注入流动性，政策助推中长期资金入市优化投资结构，美股估值偏高使A股吸引外资流入，市场对政策加码仍有预期，策略上建议轻仓逢低买入 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - 各期货主力和次主力合约价格多数上涨，如IF主力合约（2509）涨至4474.6，涨幅+100.2；各期货合约价差有不同变化，如IF - IH当月合约价差涨至1482.6，涨幅+30.6；各期货当季 - 当月、下季 - 当月价差有不同变化，如IF当季 - 当月为 - 17.2，涨幅+2.0；各期货前20名净持仓多数增加，如IF前20名净持仓为 - 38,591.00，增加3517.0 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - 沪深300、上证50、中证500、中证1000等现货价格上涨，如沪深300涨至4469.22，涨幅+91.2；各主力合约基差多数下降，如IF主力合约基差降至5.4，降幅 - 10.6 [2] 3.3 Market Sentiment - A股成交额、两融余额、北向成交合计等增加，如A股成交额达31,769.48亿元，增加5981.06亿元；主力资金昨日流入138.67亿元，今日流出562.82亿元；上涨股票比例增加，Shibor下降；IO平值看涨期权收盘价、隐含波动率上涨，IO平值看跌期权收盘价下降、隐含波动率上涨；沪深300指数20日波动率增加，成交量PCR下降，持仓量PCR增加 [2] 3.4 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - 全部A股、技术面、资金面评分均上涨，全部A股为6.90，涨幅+0.50；技术面为6.20，涨幅+1.10；资金面为7.70，涨幅+0.10 [2] 3.5 Industry News - 今年以来权益类ETF规模新增近8000亿元，总规模达4.11万亿元，增幅24%；养老基金二季度新进入29家个股前十大流通股东名单，11只个股新增持股市值超1亿元；截至8月24日18时，1688家上市公司披露2025年半年报，978家公司净利润同比增长，288家公司拟分红1646.98亿元；美联储主席鲍威尔称就业下行风险上升，或调整政策立场 [2] 3.6 Key Data to Focus On - 8月27日9:30关注中国7月规上工业企业利润；8月29日20:30关注美国7月个人收入/支出、PCE、核心PCE；8月31日9:30关注中国8月官方制造业、非制造业、综合PMI [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production of cis - butadiene rubber in China has increased, and the domestic supply may significantly increase with the release of the production capacity of some overhauled devices, and the finished - product inventory level is expected to rise. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tires increased last week, but there may be a slight decline this week due to factors such as high - temperature weather and limited overall order increments. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,850 - 12,300 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,010 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 310 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 46,705 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 10,950 lots. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 20 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 2,490 tons, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in different regions ranges from 11,700 yuan/ton, with price decreases ranging from 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 90 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 115 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 67.73 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.06 dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 587 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.5 dollars/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 830 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,095 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 dollars/ton. The price of WTI crude oil is 63.66 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14 dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,315 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 110 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, with no week - on - week change; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 68.15%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.54 percentage points. The terminal port inventory of butadiene is 27,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 6,900 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 49.13%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.61 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 129,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 69.15%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.63 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 458 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 24 yuan/ton. The terminal social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 30,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 200 tons; the terminal manufacturer inventory is 23,200 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 250 tons; the terminal trader inventory is 7,410 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 420 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.13%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.76%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.67 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.74 million pieces. The terminal inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.76 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.25 days; the terminal inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.05 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.32 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of August 21, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 200 tons and a week - on - week growth rate of 0.56%. As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.87%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 64.97%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. Most of the previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber devices have been restarted, and the domestic output has increased. Affected by the surrounding market, the mainstream supply price has further increased, but the strong price - pressing procurement sentiment of downstream customers has led to slow terminal sales [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - EB2510 fluctuated weakly, closing at 7,330 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the fundamentals of styrene remain weak, but the expectation of supply - demand improvement in September and the expectation of rectification in the oil and chemical industry provide some support for the October contract, resulting in a game between weak reality and strong expectation. Technically, EB2510 should pay attention to the support around 7,200 and the resistance around 7,500 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of styrene was 7,330 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 318,745. The closing price of the November contract was 7,342 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 351,235, a decrease of 60,572. The net long position of the top 20 holders was 23,439 lots, a decrease of 10,967, and the short position was 17,766 lots. The total number of warehouse receipts was 688, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,594 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was 899.5 US dollars/ton, and the CFR China intermediate price was 909.5 US dollars/ton. The mainstream prices in the Northeast, South, North, and East China regions were 7,510 yuan/ton, 7,375 yuan/ton, 7,525 yuan/ton, and 7,375 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The intermediate prices of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, CIF Northwest Europe, and FD US Gulf were 831 US dollars/ton, 744.67 US dollars/ton, 822.5 US dollars/ton, and 457 US dollars/ton respectively, with some price changes. The prices of pure benzene in different regions also had corresponding changes [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 78.53%, an increase of 0.35%. The national inventory was 206,476 tons, a decrease of 2,241 tons. The total inventory in the East China main port was 161,500 tons, and the trade inventory was 76,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 60.98%, 71.1%, 57.5%, 34%, and 68.16% respectively, with some changes [2] 3.6 Industry News - From August 15th to 21st, China's styrene factory output was 370,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.46%, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.53%, a year - on - year increase of 0.35%. The consumption of downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 270,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.81%. As of August 21st, the sample inventory of styrene factories was 206,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07% [2] 3.7 Outlook - This week, domestic styrene plants are expected to operate stably, and the high - production state of the industry may continue. Multiple large - scale plants will be under centralized maintenance in September, which may relieve the supply pressure. The downstream industry has both shutdown and restarting plants, and the terminal demand lacks positive factors, so styrene consumption is difficult to increase significantly. The situation of supply exceeding demand in the spot market is expected to continue, and the inventory pressure may continue to rise. In terms of cost, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has increased, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine meeting is limited, and the recent international oil price has rebounded, but the impact of OPEC+ production increase restricts the upward space of oil prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 25, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1215.5, up 6.48%. Affected by Fed Chairman Powell's indication of an open - attitude towards interest rate cuts, the night - session of black commodities rebounded significantly. Fundamentally, the mine - end inventory changed from decreasing to increasing, and the clean coal inventory transferred from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the inventory level is moderately high. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it is expected to operate in a volatile and stronger manner [2]. - On August 25, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1736.0, up 4.36%. The seventh round of price increase has started on the spot side. From January to July 2025, the global crude steel production decreased by 1.9% year - on - year. Affected by Powell's cautious signal on interest rate cuts, the market sentiment improved significantly, and commodities mainly rebounded. Fundamentally, the demand side had a hot metal output of 240.75 million tons this period, an increase of 0.09 million tons. The coal mine inventory is no longer under pressure, and the inventory has transferred downstream. The total coking coal inventory generally increased. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period was 23 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and it is expected to operate in a volatile and stronger manner [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1215.50 yuan/ton, up 53.50 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1736.00 yuan/ton, up 57.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 918162.00 lots, up 19893.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 49006.00 lots, up 1277.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 JM contracts: - 114943.00 lots, down 472.00 lots; net position of the top 20 J contracts: - 5563.00 lots, down 781.00 lots [2]. - JM1 - 9 month contract spread: 154.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; J1 - 9 month contract spread: 84.00 yuan/ton, up 32.50 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; coke warehouse receipts: 820.00 [2]. - JM main contract basis: 84.50 yuan/ton, down 53.50 yuan; J main contract basis: 39.00 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal: 962.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke: 1775.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00 yuan [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 150.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke: 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port Grade I metallurgical coke: 1670.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke: 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 25.70 million tons per day, down 0.70 million tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants: 294.80 million tons per week, down 2.20 million tons [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 0.36%, unchanged; raw coal production: 38098.70 million tons per month, down 4008.70 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 3561.00 million tons per month, up 257.00 million tons; the daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 191.20 million tons, up 3.30 million tons [2]. - The imported coking coal inventory of 16 ports: 450.45 million tons per week, up 2.67 million tons; the coke inventory of 18 ports: 268.62 million tons per week, down 1.09 million tons [2]. - The total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises (full - sample): 966.41 million tons per week, down 10.47 million tons; the coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (full - sample): 64.37 million tons per week, up 1.86 million tons [2]. 3.4 National Industrial Situation - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills: 812.31 million tons per week, up 6.51 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills: 609.59 million tons per week, down 0.21 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (full - sample): 13.07 days per week, up 0.10 days; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills: 10.76 days per week, down 0.07 days [2]. - Coking coal imports: 962.30 million tons per month, up 53.11 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports: 89.00 million tons per month, up 38.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal production: 4064.38 million tons per month, down 5.89 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 74.42%, up 0.08% [2]. - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants: 23.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan; coke production: 4185.50 million tons per month, up 15.20 million tons [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 83.34%, down 0.23%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.27%, up 0.03% [2]. - Crude steel production: 7965.82 million tons per month, down 352.58 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On August 22, Fed Chairman Powell said at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting that the Fed is open to interest rate cuts [2]. - In July 2025, global crude steel production was 150.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%; from January to July 2025, global crude steel production was 1.0862 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [2]. - Since late spring, the US Department of Defense has blocked Ukraine from using US - made Army Tactical Missile Systems to strike targets in Russia [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that on Monday, the I2601 contract increased in volume and price. Macroscopically, Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium strengthened the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut. In terms of supply and demand, the arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased this period, while domestic port inventories continued to rise. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained high, with a slight increase in molten iron production, and the daily average output remained above 2.4 million tons. Overall, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut increased, and the high - level operation of molten iron production and the firm spot price supported the futures price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were rising. The operation suggestion is to be bullish on fluctuations, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 787 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the position volume was 464,830 lots, up 12,205 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 19.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 5,873 lots, down 9,565 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt was 2,000 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 103.3 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 2.71 US dollars [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 848 yuan/dry ton, up 15 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore was 835 yuan/dry ton, up 15 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 725 yuan/dry ton, up 16 yuan. The I main contract basis (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 48 yuan, down 2 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index was 100.35 US dollars/ton (previous day), down 0.45 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.38, down 0.08. The estimated import cost was 822 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume was 3,315.80 million tons (weekly), down 90.80 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,462.30 million tons (weekly), down 240.80 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 14,444.20 million tons (weekly), up 62.63 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills was 9,065.47 million tons (weekly), down 70.93 million tons. The iron ore import volume was 10,462.00 million tons (monthly), down 133.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore were 18 days (weekly), down 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines was 39.79 million tons (weekly), down 1.39 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines was 62.96% (weekly), down 2.02 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines was 32.95 million tons (weekly), down 1.65 million tons. The BDI index was 1,944.00, up 51.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.26 US dollars/ton, up 0.02 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.14 US dollars/ton, up 0.25 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.34% (weekly), down 0.23 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.27% (weekly), up 0.03 percentage points. The domestic crude steel output was 7,966 million tons (monthly), down 353 million tons [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.23% (daily), up 0.33 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 19.86% (daily), up 0.59 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 18.41% (daily), up 0.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.67% (daily), up 2.06 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From August 18th to August 24th, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3,315.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 90.8 million tons. The total iron ore shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,760.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.4 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,462.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 240.8 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,393.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 83.3 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,153.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 99.5 million tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the HC2510 contract rebounded with reduced positions. In terms of macro - aspects, after the reserve requirement ratio cut in May released 100 billion yuan of long - term liquidity, medium - term liquidity has been in a net injection state for the past three months, and the net injection scale in August has significantly expanded. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils continued to increase, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.08%, still at a high level; terminal demand was fair, inventory increased slightly, and apparent demand rose. Overall, in the short term, due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and Tangshan entering the production restriction period, the short - term market may fluctuate strongly. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. The operation strategy is to be bullish on the fluctuating market, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,389 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2] - HC main contract positions: 938,245 lots, down 59,902 lots [2] - Net positions of the top 20 in the HC contract: - 69,010 lots, down 14,157 lots [2] - HC10 - 1 contract spread: 12 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - HC warehouse receipts at the Shanghai Futures Exchange: 27,749 tons, down 5,366 tons [2] - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 251 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coils: 3,450 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coils: 3,420 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coils: 3,460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coils: 3,380 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - HC main contract basis: 61 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: 110 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 781 yuan/wet ton, up 15 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,590 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 3,040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 138.452 million tons, up 259,300 tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 393,800 tons, up 3,300 tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.0969 million tons, down 900 tons [2] - Hebei billet inventory: 1.1609 million tons, up 35,700 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.34%, down 0.23 percentage points [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.27%, up 0.03 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 3.2524 million tons, up 96,500 tons [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 83.08%, up 2.46 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 788,900 tons, down 10,900 tons [2] - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 2.8255 million tons, up 50,600 tons [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 9.39 million tons, up 180,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.5911 million vehicles, down 203,000 vehicles [2] - Automobile sales: 2.5934 million vehicles, down 311,100 vehicles [2] - Air - conditioner output: 20.5965 million units, down 7.7866 million units [2] - Household refrigerator output: 8.7307 million units, down 316,800 units [2] - Household washing machine output: 8.7743 million units, down 733,600 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - In July 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 150.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. African crude steel output was 1.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.0%; Asian and Oceanian crude steel output was 110.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%; EU (27 countries) crude steel output was 10.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.0%; other European countries' crude steel output was 3.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [2] - On August 25, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations with a term of 1 year. This is also the central bank's sixth consecutive month of increased volume roll - over, and the central bank's net MLF injection this month reached 300 billion yuan. After the reserve requirement ratio cut in May released 100 billion yuan of long - term liquidity, medium - term liquidity has been in a net injection state for the past three months, and the net injection scale in August has significantly expanded [2]

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the jujube industry dated August 25, 2025, covering various aspects of the jujube market [1][2] 1. Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main jujube futures contract is 11,410 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest is 132,766 hands, a decrease of 1,431 hands [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -7,541 hands, the number of warehouse receipts is 10,088, an increase of 197, and the total effective warehouse receipt forecast is 944 [2] Spot Market - Kashi jujube bulk price is 6 yuan/kg, Hebei first - grade grey jujube wholesale price is 4.8 yuan/jin, and there are prices for other regions with no change in most cases [2] Upstream Market - Annual jujube production is 318.7 million tons, and the planting area is 199.3 million hectares, a decrease of 4.1 million hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 9,519 tons, a decrease of 167 tons from last week, and the monthly jujube export volume is 1,784,164 kg, an increase of 19,057 kg [2] Downstream Situation - The jujube wholesale price in Taiyuan Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Shanxi Province is 1.47 yuan/kg, and the cumulative sales volume of Haoxiangni jujubes is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons [2] 2. Core View - On Monday, the jujube 2601 contract closed up 0.57%. In the 34th week, the physical inventory of 36 sample jujube warehouses was 9,519 tons, a 1.72% week - on - week decrease and a 79.20% year - on - year increase [2] - The jujube production in 2024 increased year - on - year, leading to higher old - crop inventory than the same period last year. The market recognizes the potential reduction in the new - season Xinjiang grey jujube production, but there are differences in production estimates [2] - With the market's digestion of positive factors and short - term capital outflows, the jujube futures market lacks driving force and is expected to show a high - level oscillating trend. Future attention should be paid to the actual production and opening price. The support level for the jujube 2601 contract is around 11,000 yuan/ton. Short - term trading is recommended [2] 3. Industry News - On August 25, the weather in Aksu changed from sunny to light rain with temperatures between 14 - 26°C. Jujube farmers are actively managing their fields. According to on - site research in mid - July, the mainstream per - mu yield is 700 - 800 kg, and the first - crop large fruits are gradually turning red. Rainfall should be monitored [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries remains flat. The price of industrial silicon rose and then fell today, showing a downward trend in its technical form, but it found support at the 8100 integer level. It is recommended to consider long - term mid - to - long - term low - buying for long positions if the price breaks below 8200 yuan later [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; the main contract position was 289125 lots, an increase of 9744 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 84679 lots, a decrease of 7835 lots; the warehouse receipts of the GZEX were 50938 lots, a decrease of 111 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon was - 35 yuan, a decrease of 15 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9350 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 675 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 324700 tons, an increase of 19500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 55.2 tons, an increase of 1 ton; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52919.65 tons, a decrease of 12197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 4.49 tons, an increase of 0.07 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kilogram; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 24908.89 tons, a decrease of 861.29 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 72.71%, a decrease of 2.34%; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 153.6 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first half of 2025, LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. achieved an operating income of 32.813 billion yuan, with a significant reduction in losses of 2.661 billion yuan compared with the same period of the previous year, mainly benefiting from operational efficiency improvement, which led to a significant decline in sales and management expenses and a significant reduction in asset impairment losses. Technological innovation has become the key to breaking the situation. LONGi Green Energy has launched a new round of technological engine drive with its leading differentiated BC technology. In the industrial silicon sector, on the supply side, as the flood season deepens in the southwest region, the electricity price advantage becomes more obvious, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants to accelerate. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places is increasing, and it is expected that the output of industrial silicon in the southwest region will increase week - on - week next week [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, the production in Xinjiang is stable, but the enthusiasm of small and medium - sized silicon plants to resume production is not high. The production in the southwest region is expected to increase. On the demand side, the organic silicon market is weak, with a significant decline in profits and operating rate, having a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon; the polysilicon industry is expected to increase production significantly in August, increasing the demand for industrial silicon, but the long - term demand for the photovoltaic industry may shrink, which may limit the continuous growth of polysilicon's demand for industrial silicon; the overall inventory of aluminum alloy continues to rise significantly, but the price has increased, and the overall demand for industrial silicon remains stable [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On August 25, the yields of treasury bond spot bonds strengthened collectively, and treasury bond futures also rose. The domestic economic fundamentals showed mixed performance, with the financial data in July being structurally differentiated and the medium - and long - term financing momentum of enterprises and residents still insufficient. Overseas, there are expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. The bond market is currently suppressed by market risk appetite and lacks independent upward momentum. The central bank's monetary policy will continue a moderately loose tone but with limited scope for overall easing. As a result, the interest rate center lacks the impetus to decline further, and the rebound of treasury bond futures is insufficient. It is recommended to pay attention to the phased recovery opportunities of treasury bond futures [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Conditions - **Closing Prices and Volume**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.27%, 0.15%, 0.1%, and 0.78% respectively. T, TS, and TL main contract trading volumes decreased by 14,647, 14,715, and 9,853 respectively, while TF main contract trading volume increased by 727 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Most of the futures spreads changed, with some spreads increasing and some decreasing. For example, the TL2512 - 2509 spread increased by 0.12 to - 0.39, and the T12 - TL12 spread decreased by 0.53 to - 8.85 [2] - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased, with decreases of 7,135, 9,542, 4,990, and 4,719 respectively. The net short positions of the top 20 in each contract all increased [2] 3.2 CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds increased, such as 220019.IB increasing by 0.1358 to 105.7269 [2] - **Active Bonds**: The yields of 1 - year active bonds remained unchanged, 3 - year yields decreased by 0.50bp, and 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields increased by 1.75bp, 1.75bp, and 2.40bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The overnight silver pledge rate decreased by 14.78bp to 1.3022%, the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 6.20bp to 1.3560%. The 7 - day silver pledge rate increased by 14.77bp to 1.5977%, and the Shibor 7 - day rate increased by 2.10bp to 1.4840% [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2] 3.4 Public Market Operations - On August 25, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. With 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing on August 26, the net MLF investment in August reached 300 billion yuan, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased roll - overs [2] 3.5 Industry News - Shanghai's six departments jointly issued a notice on optimizing and adjusting real estate policies, including measures such as reducing housing purchase restrictions, optimizing housing provident funds, and personal housing credit policies, which will take effect on August 26, 2025 [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - August 28, 17:00, Eurozone August industrial sentiment index - August 29, 20:30, US July core PCE price index annual rate [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - V2601 oscillated with a bullish bias, closing at 5047 yuan/ton. This week, the restart of overhauled devices and the annual inspection of a 400,000 - ton device at Formosa Plastics Ningbo are expected to increase production and capacity utilization. There are many PVC production plans in August, increasing medium - to - long - term supply pressure. Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak terminal real estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. The anti - dumping investigation in India increases export difficulties, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction and putting pressure on prices. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4900 and the pressure around 5100 [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5047 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; the trading volume was 1,088,126 lots, up 395,393 lots; the open interest was 1,008,160 lots, up 26,929 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures was 853,070 lots, up 1,523 lots; the short position was 934,697 lots, up 19,110 lots; the net long position was - 81,627 lots, down 17,587 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4762.31 yuan/ton, down 10.77 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4985 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4857.5 yuan/ton, down 5.62 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 725 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 279 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2565 yuan/ton, up 16.67 yuan; in the Northwest, it was 2337 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East was 521 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East was 181 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 77.61%, down 2.72 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 76.81%, down 3.15 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.59%, down 1.67 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 508,000 tons, up 15,200 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 450,200 tons, up 15,000 tons; in the South China region, it was 57,800 tons, up 200 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real estate prosperity index was 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 35,2060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6,387,310,000 square meters, up 54,095,700 square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 281.0593 billion yuan, up 36.3043 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.7%, down 2.69 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 21.81%, down 0.22 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.22%, up 0.01 percentage point; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.22%, unchanged [3] Industry News - On August 25, the market price of PVC SG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou, and Hangzhou increased by 0 - 30 yuan/ton compared with last Friday, ranging from 4750 to 4830 yuan/ton. From August 16 to August 22, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.72%. As of August 21, the social inventory of PVC increased by 5.09% month - on - month to 852,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.50% [3]