湖烯烃装置重启后负荷提升，周均开工率预计继续上行。MA2601合约短线预计在2080-2130区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2114 | 20 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -94 | 13 9185 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 1104658 | -50028 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -194795 | | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 3800 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that the futures price of stainless steel will fluctuate and adjust, facing pressure from the MA20 line. The raw - material cost has decreased, the supply pressure has increased, the demand is weak, the social inventory has shown a narrow increase, and the short - selling sentiment has weakened [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract of stainless steel is 12,410 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 70 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 7,631 lots, an increase of 1,495 lots; the main contract position is 122,062 lots, a decrease of 9,348 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 63,473 tons, a decrease of 292 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled, trimmed in Wuxi is 13,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SS main contract basis is 365 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,900 metal tons, an increase of 1,200 metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 905,100 tons, a decrease of 180,200 tons; the SMM1 nickel spot price is 119,000 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 885 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; the monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 产业情况 - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8 million tons, an increase of 37,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 585,300 tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons; the monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 490,613,900 square meters, an increase of 36,623,900 square meters; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,900 units, an increase of 4,300 units; the monthly output of excavators is 30,900 units, a decrease of 700 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2] 行业消息 - The Fed released the Beige Book, showing that economic activity was basically flat in most of the 12 Fed districts, with 2 districts reporting a slight decline and 1 district reporting a slight increase. The overall outlook is basically unchanged, and some people point out an increased risk of economic slowdown in the next few months. Six departments jointly issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the consumer goods supply structure by 2027. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 6,000 to 216,000, the lowest since mid - April [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The zinc market is expected to experience volatile adjustments, with attention focused on the range of 22,300 - 22,600 yuan/ton. The supply side shows that although zinc ore imports have increased and new production capacities are being released, domestic refined zinc production growth is limited due to factors such as reduced processing fees and lower sulfuric acid prices. Overseas zinc supply is tight, and the export window has opened. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect is weak, with the real - estate sector dragging down, while the automotive and home - appliance sectors have some policy - supported highlights. The downstream market mainly purchases on demand at low prices, the domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and the LME zinc inventory has increased, but the spot premium is high. Technically, the position has decreased, and both long and short positions are cautious, with attention on the MA60 support[3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,415 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price difference between the 01 - 02 contracts of Shanghai zinc is - 30 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,055 US dollars/ton, up 55.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 189,741 lots, down 329 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 2,728 lots, down 1,037 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 100,347 tons, down 545 tons; the LME inventory is 49,925 tons, up 1,925 tons[3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,420 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 35 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 164.86 US dollars/ton, up 44.09 US dollars. The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 48,630 yuan/ton, up 30,030 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged[3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 21,000 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, an increase of 17,700 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0976 million tons, an increase of 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 625,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons[3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons. The social zinc inventory is 161,900 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons[3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units[3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 10.8%, down 0.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 10.8%, down 0.32 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 10.95%, down 0.25 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 8.97%, down 0.06 percentage points[3]. Industry News - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has been basically flat in most of the 12 Fed districts since the last report, with 2 districts reporting a slight decline and 1 district reporting a slight increase. The overall outlook is basically unchanged, and some people point out an increased risk of a slowdown in economic activity in the next few months. Six departments jointly issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased to 216,000, the lowest in seven months, and the initial value of durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month, in line with expectations, while the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9%[3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 27, the JM2601 contract closed at 1071.0, down 0.19%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was reported at 1420, equivalent to 1200 on the futures market. The macro - situation: the NDRC issued a notice on ensuring the supply of thermal coal in 2026, weakening the market's expectations. Fundamentally, the capacity utilization rate of mines declined this period, and the coking coal inventory of mines and coal washing plants increased for 4 consecutive weeks. The overall inventory is at a moderate level with a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [2]. - On November 27, the J2601 contract closed at 1607.0, up 0.03%. The fourth round of price increase for coke in the spot market has been implemented. The macro - situation: on November 24, South Korea announced anti - dumping duties on Chinese medium and heavy plates and alloy steel hot - rolled thick plates for 5 years. Fundamentally, in terms of demand, the pig iron output this period was 236.28 (-0.60) million tons, and the total coke inventory is relatively high compared to the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants across the country this period was 19 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1071.00 yuan/ton, down 13.50 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1607.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 862195.00 lots, down 16796.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 48293.00 lots, down 1586.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 JM contracts: - 112785.00 lots, down 10341.00 lots; net position of the top 20 J contracts: - 274.00 lots, up 101.00 lots [2]. - JM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 94.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan; J 5 - 1 month contract spread: 144.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; coke warehouse receipts: 2070.00 [2]. Spot Market - Dry Qimantage Meng 5 raw coal: 1008.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke: 1885.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 162.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1510.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke: 1770.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1670.00 yuan/ton, down 110.00 yuan; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis: 278.00 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1380.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis: 539.00 yuan/ton, up 13.50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 26.60 million tons per day, down 1.00 million tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants: 305.30 million tons per week, up 2.50 million tons [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 0.36%, down 0.01%; raw coal output: 40675.00 million tons per month, down 475.50 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 4174.00 million tons per month, down 426.00 million tons; the average daily raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 191.30 million tons, down 2.10 million tons [2]. - The imported coking coal inventory of 16 ports: 456.90 million tons per week, down 31.30 million tons; the coke inventory of 18 ports: 253.40 million tons per week, down 6.10 million tons [2]. - The total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 1038.19 million tons per week, down 30.78 million tons; the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 65.29 million tons per week, up 7.14 million tons [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide: 797.08 million tons per week, up 6.91 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills: 622.34 million tons per week, down 0.06 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises: 12.97 days per week, up 0.10 days; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills: 11.05 days per week, down 0.01 days [2]. Industry Situation - Coking coal imports: 1059.32 million tons per month, down 33.04 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports: 73.00 million tons per month, up 19.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output: 3975.92 million tons per month, up 279.06 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 71.71%, up 0.07% [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants: 19.00 yuan/ton, up 53.00 yuan; coke output: 4189.60 million tons per month, down 66.00 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide: 82.17%, down 0.62%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 88.56%, down 0.26% [2]. - Crude steel output: 7199.70 million tons per month, down 149.31 million tons [2]. Industry News - The Chief Economist of the European Central Bank, Philip Lane, said that the world economy is undergoing profound changes beyond the impact of US tariffs, and Europe must start to seek growth drivers locally as its traditional sources of income are drying up [2]. - According to Bloomberg News, the Pentagon believes that Alibaba, Baidu, and BYD should be included in the list of enterprises assisting the Chinese military [2]. - From January to October, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 105.32 billion yuan [2]. - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Plan for Enhancing the Adaptability of Consumer Goods Supply and Demand and Further Promoting Consumption", aiming to form 3 trillion - level and 100 - billion - level consumer sectors by 2027 [2].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On November 26, the manganese silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5,630, down 0.25%. Fundamentally, inventory is rising rapidly, production at a high level continues to decline slightly, and inventory has been rising for 8 consecutive weeks. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile. [2] - On November 26, the ferrosilicon 2603 contract was reported at 5,416, down 0.70%. In terms of supply and demand, market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid - demand restocking, prices are falling, and inventory has decreased this period. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile. [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the SM main contract was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,416 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan [2]. - The SM futures contract positions were 734,411 lots, up 17,984 lots; the SF futures contract positions were 462,307 lots, up 15,677 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in manganese silicon were - 11,815 lots, down 6,298 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in ferrosilicon were - 17,136 lots, up 147 lots [2]. - The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 52 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was - 16 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The SM warehouse receipts were 21,189 lots; the SF warehouse receipts were 10,973 lots, down 20 lots [2]. Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,430 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,270 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan [2]. - The price of Guizhou manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,100 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The price of Yunnan manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - The average value of the manganese silicon index was 5,515.75 yuan/ton, down 63.25 yuan; the basis of the SF main contract was - 216 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SM main contract was - 200 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 lumps at Tianjin Port was 32 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu) was 880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The manganese ore port inventory was 426.30 tons, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The manganese silicon enterprise operating rate was 39.13%, down 0.46%; the ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate was 33.81%, down 1.03% [2]. - The manganese silicon supply was 196,910 tons, down 2,660 tons; the ferrosilicon supply was 108,300 tons, down 800 tons [2]. - The manganese silicon manufacturer inventory was 363,000 tons, up 13,500 tons; the ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 73,050 tons, down 8,310 tons [2]. - The national steel mill inventory of manganese silicon was 15.70 days, down 0.23 days; the national steel mill inventory of ferrosilicon was 15.67 days, up 0.15 days [2]. - The demand for manganese silicon from the five major steel types was 121,407 tons, up 2,818 tons; the demand for ferrosilicon from the five major steel types was 19,543 tons, up 469.20 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.17%, down 0.62%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.56%, down 0.26% [2]. - The crude steel output was 7,199.70 tons, down 149.31 tons [2]. Industry News - The "Work Plan for the Classification and Disposal of Coal Mines below 600,000 Tons per Year in Shaanxi Province" was issued, aiming to optimize the coal industry structure [2]. - On November 24, South Korea announced anti - dumping duties on Chinese medium - thick plates and alloy steel hot - rolled thick plates, with some product tax rates up to 34.10% [2]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready to advance a framework agreement to end the war with Russia [2].

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1084.50 | -1.50↓ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1619.00 | -24.00↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 878991.00 | -3477.00↓ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 49879.00 | +1122.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -102444.00 | +19339.00↑ 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -375.00 | +490.00↑ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 92.00 | -6 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - For corn, the US corn harvest is nearly complete, leading to high short - term supply pressure. Global and US soybean supply - demand is relatively loose, suppressing international corn prices. In China, Northeast growers are reluctant to sell, and transportation issues support the bottom price. Consumption increases due to better processing profits and higher operating rates, and the purchase price is strong. In North China and Huanghuai, the new - grain quality varies, and the market is less active. Corn futures prices are generally strong, but chasing up is not recommended [2]. - For corn starch, with the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate rises, increasing supply pressure. However, downstream demand is good, and the inventory has decreased. Starch futures have risen with the corn market, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2235 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2551 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The number of long positions in the top 20 futures for corn decreased by 6445 hands, while that for corn starch increased by 4310 hands [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 438.25 cents/bushel, up 1 cent. The total position of CBOT corn is 1596361 contracts, up 46302 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn decreased by 11046 contracts to - 92353 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2316.27 yuan/ton, up 7.05 yuan; the factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2590 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 39 yuan, up 35 yuan; the basis of the corn main contract is 81.27 yuan, up 14.05 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn output in the US is 427.11 million tons, up 1.85 million tons; in Brazil, it is 131 million tons, unchanged. The predicted annual corn output in China is 295 million tons, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports is 62.8 million tons, down 23.8 million tons; in northern ports, it is 134 million tons, up 10 million tons. The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 106.9 million tons, down 4 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2957 million tons, down 171.7 million tons. The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is 12.78 yuan/ton, down 2.02 yuan; in Hebei, it is 107 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; in Jilin, it is 37 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 9.06%, up 0.34%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.48%, up 0.08%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for corn is 10.82%, up 1.23% [2]. Industry News - As of November 23, the US corn harvest progress in 18 states (accounting for 94% of the national corn - sown area) is 96%. As of November 22, the first - season corn planting in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is 59.3% complete [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the freight index (European Line) futures prices dropped significantly. The main contract EC2602 fell 7.62%, and the far - month contracts fell between 4 - 8%. The poor implementation of the freight rate increase plan led to a sharp decline in the near - month futures prices [1]. - The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1639.37, up 271.7 points from last week, a 20.7% week - on - week increase. However, China's manufacturing PMI in October declined more than seasonally, and the new export order index dropped 1.9 percentage points to 45.9, indicating that the recovery of terminal transportation demand is not firmly based [1]. - Spot freight rates decreased as Maersk's 50 - week booking price for large containers dropped to $2100 - 2200, down $300 from the previous week, causing other shipping alliances to follow suit [1]. - Geopolitical conflicts, such as the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict in a stalemate, and the improvement of the trade war situation, the potential substantial easing of geopolitical conflicts, and the arrival of the fourth - quarter shipping peak season all affect the market. The freight rate market is highly affected by news, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious and control risks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Prices**: EC2602 closed at 1072.200, down 68.0; EC2604 closed at 1252, down 102.10; the spread between EC2602 and EC2604 was 315.20, down 11.90; the spread between EC2602 and EC2606 was 135.40, up 19.90; the EC contract basis was 251.97, up 66.10 [1]. - **Futures Positions**: The main contract's open interest was 17998, up 982 [1]. - **Freight Rate Indexes**: SCFIS (European Line) was 1639.37, up 281.70; SCFIS (US West Coast Line) was 1107.85, down 130.57; SCFI (Comprehensive Index) was 1393.56, down 57.82; CCFI (Comprehensive Index) was 1122.79, up 28.76; CCFI (European Line) was 1432.96, up 29.32 [1]. - **Other Indexes**: The Baltic Dry Index was 2309.00, down 14.00; the Panamax Freight Index was 1957.00, down 13.00; the average charter price for Panamax ships was 17564.00, up; the average charter price for Capesize ships was 29150.00, down 1095.00 [1]. - **Container Ship Capacity**: It was 1227.97 (in ten thousand TEUs), up 3.08 [1]. Industry News - Diplomatic news includes positive communication between Chinese and US presidents, progress in the US - drafted peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the expected visit of the Ukrainian president to the US [1]. - The US federal government's budget deficit in October was $284 billion due to the government shutdown [1]. Key Events to Watch - On November 27, key data releases include China's year - to - date profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above a designated size in October, Germany's Gfk consumer confidence index for December, and the eurozone's industrial and economic sentiment indexes for November [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - BZ2603 fluctuates strongly and closes at 5,463 yuan/ton. Last week, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased month - on - month, while that of hydrogenated benzene increased. The domestic pure benzene output decreased slightly. The operating rates of downstream caprolactam and phenol increased, while those of styrene, aniline, and adipic acid decreased. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased slightly. Due to more arriving resources and insufficient downstream提货 demand, port inventories continued to accumulate. Domestic supply and demand are weak, and petroleum benzene profits remain low. This week, petroleum benzene plants are expected to resume operation, and two hydrogenated benzene plants will shut down. Meanwhile, imports will increase, so the supply of pure benzene is expected to rise. Terminal demand is weak, styrene maintains low - level operation, and downstream consumption is unlikely to grow. In terms of cost, international oil prices closed lower yesterday. As the operating rate of US refineries increases, the price difference between RBOB gasoline and Brent crude oil narrows, and the sustainability of overseas gasoline - blending demand is questionable. Although the price difference between US and South Korean pure benzene is still at a five - year high, the positive impact is limited under the background of loose domestic supply and weak international oil prices. Technically, BZ2603 should pay attention to the support around 5,360 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the pure benzene futures main contract is 5,463 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 52 yuan; the settlement price is 5,434 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The trading volume is 13,715 lots, up 4,225 lots; the open interest is 23,294 lots, up 579 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic market, the mainstream prices of pure benzene in East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China are 5,300 yuan/ton, 5,290 yuan/ton, 5,300 yuan/ton, and 5,202 yuan/ton respectively. The prices in East China, South China, and North China remain unchanged, while that in Northeast China increases by 20 yuan/ton. The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB) is 646 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars; the CIF price in China is 659.94 US dollars/ton, down 4.4 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 63.21 US dollars/barrel, down 0.91 US dollars; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan is 560.88 US dollars/ton, down 1.75 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 76.67%, down 1.31 percentage points; the weekly output is 44.67 tons, down 0.76 tons. The terminal port inventory of pure benzene is 14.7 tons, up 3.4 tons. The production cost is 5,314.4 yuan/ton, down 1.8 yuan; the production profit is 40 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of styrene is 68.95%, down 0.3 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 88.23%, up 2.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.71%, up 11.46 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 75.68%, down 4.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 55.5%, down 6.5 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 14th to 20th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 1.31% month - on - month to 76.67%, and that of hydrogenated benzene increased by 3.2% to 57.75%. From November 15th to 21st, the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased by 0.93% month - on - month to 73.13%. As of November 24th, the inventory of pure benzene in East China is 16.4 tons, up 11.56% from the previous period. From November 15th to 21st, the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 11 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The raw material supply of copper concentrate remains tight, and the high price of copper ore still supports the cost of refined copper. The supply of refined copper may converge due to the tight supply of copper ore and the concentrated maintenance of some smelters. The downstream demand is still weak as the downstream开工率 only slightly rebounds after the decline in October, and the downstream is cautious due to high copper prices. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly decreasing implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,893.50 dollars/ton, up 75.50 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 204,728 hands, up 5,146 hands. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are - 22,921 hands, up 4,551 hands. The LME copper inventory is 156,575 tons, up 825 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 110,603 tons, up 1,196 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 5,625 tons, up 100 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of cathode copper are 39,825 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,655 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,745 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 48 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 31.50 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 65 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 9.52 dollars/ton, down 15.36 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.32 dollars/kiloton, down 0.11 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,990 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 77,690 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 59,290 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,824 billion yuan, up 445.93 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 73,562.70 billion yuan, up 5,856.99 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177,000 million pieces, down 194,236.10 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.36%, down 2.21%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 19.38%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 11.69%, down 0.0045; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.17, down 0.0042 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Data Bureau launched the first batch of 12 state - owned enterprise data resource development and utilization pilots, covering traditional and emerging fields. The National Data Bureau will support data exchange and trading service system construction. In October, the national power market trading volume was 563.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 15.6%. From January to October, the cumulative power market trading volume was 5,492 billion kWh, accounting for 63.7% of the total social power consumption. In October, European car sales increased by 4.9% year - on - year to 1.09 million vehicles, with Tesla's new car registrations down 48%, BYD's up 195%, SAIC Group up 56%, and Toyota down 10.8%. A Fed governor said the current monetary policy hinders economic development and the US economy needs significant interest rate cuts. In September, the US PPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, the core PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month, and retail sales rose 0.2% month - on - month but significantly slowed down. The China - US presidential call was initiated by the US side with a positive atmosphere [2].